Markets
www.danskemarketsequities.com
European Freight Forwarding Index14 May 2013
Søren [email protected]+45 45 12 80 53
Erik Bergöö[email protected]+45 45 12 80 36
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12 of this report.
Markets
Main conclusion from survey
Our proprietary European Freight Forwarding Index indicates that volume development in April was higher compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 54 compared with March's figure of 52. Participants� expectations suggest increasing volumes in the coming two months.
80
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5856
5254
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Current Expected 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Expected)
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
Recovery continues in March
• The overall index for current volumes in April increased to 54 compared with 52 in March. This indicates higher volumes compared with two months ago. Forward index values are now at 58 for May and 56 for June, which indicate expectations of increasing volumes.
• Road index of 50 indicates that current volumes are unchanged compared with two months ago. The index for March was 50 as well. Expectations for road came in at 57 for June (59 in May) and indicate increasing volume development over the next two months.
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increasing volume development over the next two months.
• Airfreight index of 50 indicates unchanged volumes compared with two months ago. The index fell from March�s reading of 53. Expectations for Airfreight decreased to 41 for June (44 in May) and indicate falling volumes over the next two months.
• The Sea freight index of 60 indicates higher volumes compared with two months ago. The index for March was 52. Expectations for Sea freight for June came in at 60 which was slightly lower than May�s figure of 62. The index indicate increasing volumes in the coming two-month period.
Markets
Segment breakdown of survey
Road Seafreight
5957
50 50
20
40
60
80
100
Index V
alu
e
6260
5260
20
40
60
80
100
Ind
ex
Va
lue
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0mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index V
alu
e
Current Expected
0mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Ind
ex
Va
lue
Current Expected
444153
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Inde
x V
alu
e
Current Expected
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Airfreight
Markets
Country breakdown of survey
Benelux Denmark
14
64
43 43
20
40
60
80
100
Ind
ex
Va
lue 53
79
6864
20
40
60
80
100
Index
Valu
e
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FinlandEastern Europe
140mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Ind
ex
Va
lue
Current Expected
0mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index
Valu
e
Current Expected
50
35
55 55
0
20
40
60
80
100
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index V
alu
e
Current Expected
50
44
4544
0
20
40
60
80
100
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index V
alu
e
Current Expected
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
Country breakdown of survey
Germany UK
67
50
6064
0
20
40
60
80
100
Index
Valu
e
6368
73
50
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ind
ex V
alu
e
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SwedenNorway
0mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Current Expected
0mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Current Expected
55
25
5045
0
20
40
60
80
100
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index V
alu
e
Current Expected
8071
6050
0
20
40
60
80
100
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Current Expected
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
Country breakdown of survey
Switzerland Other
5042
44 42
20
40
60
80
100
Ind
ex V
alu
e
58 58
50
20
40
60
80
100
Index V
alu
e
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0
20
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Current Expected
0
20
mar-10 nov-10 jul-11 mar-12 nov-12
Index V
alu
e
Current Expected
Source: Danske Bank Markets Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
How the survey is conducted
• Our respondents have answered these two questions:
− What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?
− Lower volume.
− Unchanged volume.
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− Unchanged volume.
− Higher volume.
− How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)?
− Lower volume.
− Unchanged volume.
− Higher volume.
• Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between 0 and 100, with values above 50 indicating expansion among participating companies.
Markets
Segment breakdown for participants
Road40%
Other18%
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40%
Seafreight30%
Airfreight12%
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
Country breakdown for participants
Benelux6%
Denmark20%
Switzerland
UK12%
Other8%
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Eastern Europe13%
Finland9%Germany
10%
Norway7%
Sweden10%
Switzerland5%
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
Number of participants
130
150
170
190
Num
ber
of P
art
icip
ants
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94
70
90
110
jan-09apr-09 jul-09 okt-09 jan-10apr-10 jul-10 okt-10 jan-11apr-11 jul-11 okt-11 jan-12apr-12 jul-12 okt-12 jan-13apr-13
Num
ber
of P
art
icip
ants
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Markets
DisclosureThis presentation has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (�Danske Bank�). The authors of the presentation are Erik Bergöö and Søren Toft, Analysts.
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Markets
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