EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT:

OUTCOMES AND OUTLOOK

Prakash Loungani Advisor, Research Department, IMF

Co-Chair, Jobs & Growth Working Group, IMF April 17, 2013

VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE PRESENTER AND SHOULD NOT BE ASCRIBED TO THE IMF .

I thank Ezgi Ozturk for excellent research assistance.

Outline

1. Unemployment: outcomes and outlook

2. Diagnosis: cyclical or structural?

3. IMF advice

1. European Unemployment

Outcomes: DireOutlook: Dire

Unemployment Rate:2012

Serb

iaSp

ain

Gre

ece

Port

ugal

Lat

via

Alb

ania

Irel

and

Cro

atia

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Lit

huan

iaB

ulga

ria

Hun

gary

Ital

yFr

ance

Est

onia

Pola

ndT

urke

ySl

oven

iaU

nite

d K

ingd

omU

krai

neFi

nlan

dSw

eden

Bel

gium

Rom

ania

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Mol

dova

Den

mar

kG

erm

any

Net

herl

ands

Aus

tria

Swit

zerl

and

Nor

way

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Change in Unemployment Rate:2012-2007

Spai

nG

reec

eIr

elan

dL

atvi

aL

ithu

ania

Port

ugal

Serb

iaE

ston

iaC

roat

iaB

ulga

ria

Ital

ySl

oven

iaH

unga

ryU

nite

d K

ingd

omSl

ovak

Rep

ubli

cD

enm

ark

Alb

ania

Fran

ceC

zech

Rep

ubli

cN

ethe

rlan

dsU

krai

neSw

eden

Swit

zerl

and

Rom

ania

Finl

and

Mol

dova

Nor

way

Pola

ndA

ustr

iaT

urke

yB

elgi

umG

erm

any

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Euro Area GDP Growth Forecasts in 2007

2008 2009-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

OECD EO (December 2007) WEO (October 2007)Actual

Euro Area Unemployment Rate Forecasts in 2007

2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

OECD EO (December 2007) WEO (October 2007)Actual

Unemployment Rate:2013 WEO Forecast

Serb

iaG

reec

eSp

ain

Port

ugal

Irel

and

Lat

via

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Cro

atia

Alb

ania

Lit

huan

iaIt

aly

Bul

gari

aFr

ance

Hun

gary

Pola

ndT

urke

yE

ston

iaSl

oven

iaU

nite

d K

ingd

omC

zech

Rep

ubli

cB

elgi

umFi

nlan

dU

krai

neSw

eden

Rom

ania

Mol

dova

Net

herl

ands

Den

mar

kG

erm

any

Aus

tria

Swit

zerl

and

Nor

way

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2. Diagnosis: Cyclical or Structural

Largely cyclicalRisk of turning structural (“hysteresis”)?

A Debate since the 1970s …

• “There is sometimes the naïve belief that unemployment must be due to a defect in the labor market, as if the hole in a flat tire must always be at the bottom, because that is where the tire is flat” (Solow, 2000).

• "It takes a heap of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun's gap.” (Tobin, 1977)

“We impute the higher [European] unemployment to welfare states' diminished ability to cope with more turbulent economic times, such as the ongoing restructuring from manufacturing to the service industry, adoption of new information technologies, and a rapidly changing international economy. “(Ljungqvist and Sargent, 1998)

• Initial increase cyclical rather than structural

• Greater uncertainty about relative proportions now, but remains largely cyclical in our view

• Beveridge curve quite stable; moreover shifts may not be sign of increase in natural rate (Diamond 2013)

• Other measures of mismatch back to normal• Lack of deflation not a sign of small unemployment

gap

• Stability of Okun’s Law (even during the Great Recession) suggests jobs will return if the growth returns.

• Hence focus of IMF policy recommendations remains on getting growth back

Unemployment during the Great Recession

11

Stability in Beveridge Curve in Most Countries

(relative to past changes)

Graph shows average percent point deviation in the unemployment rate. Source: Hobijn and Sahin (2012)

12

Correlation between Change in Unemployment and Change in GDP

(2012, in percent)

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

All European Countries

Real GDP Growth

Cha

nge

in U

nem

ploy

men

t

Correlation between Change in Unemployment and Change in GDP

(2012, in percent)

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Euro Area

Real GDP Growth

Cha

nge

in U

nem

ploy

men

t R

ate

3. IMF Advice

Framework

Large increase in unemployment in advanced economies during the crisis– Cyclical or structural unemployment?– How to achieve the relative price adjustment in

periphery Euro countries?– Can labor market reforms reduce the natural

unemployment rate and raise potential growth?

Recent Staff Discussion Note (Blanchard, Jaumotte, Loungani) looks at IMF advice in this light

16

Diagnosis that unemployment problem is largely cyclical has framed IMF advice on labor markets

• Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing early in the crisis

• Now, fiscal consolidation– should be gradual, with credible medium-term plans

• Effects of fiscal consolidation on growth should be offset by other measures to the extent possible– Continued ease in monetary policies– Financial sector repair & reform

Recommendations: Monetary & Fiscal Policy

17

IMF leadership on fiscal issues widely recognized …

How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more

-- Washington Post April 16, 2013

“It is to the credit of the economists at the Fund that their recommendations to policymakers have adapted to this strange world we’re living in rather than sticking with their more normal, doctrinaire advocacy of monetary and fiscal restraint.”

IMF Renews Push Against Austerity

IMF leadership on fiscal issues widely recognized …

How the IMF became the friend who wants us to work less and drink more

-- Washington Post April 16, 2013

“It is to the credit of the economists at the Fund that their recommendations to policymakers have adapted to this strange world we’re living in rather than sticking with their more normal, doctrinaire advocacy of monetary and fiscal restraint.”

IMF Renews Push Against Austerity

-- Wall Street JournalApril 17, 2013

“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”

“ … the International Monetary Fund called on countries that can afford it -- including the U.S. and Britain -- to slow the pace of their austerity measures.”

“The fund warned that "overly strong" belt-tightening in the U.S. will slow growth this year. Across-the-board government spending cuts, known as the sequester, were the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit, it said in its semiannual report on economic growth. Those cuts should be replaced by more targeted reductions that would take effect further down the road -- after the economy gains strength, the report said.”

“The U.K. government, which in 2010 embarked on a closely watched effort to escape its slump through tax increases and spending cuts, also should consider easing up on its austerity drive amid a weak recovery there, the IMF said. And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.

“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”

“ … the International Monetary Fund called on countries that can afford it -- including the U.S. and Britain -- to slow the pace of their austerity measures.”

“The fund warned that "overly strong" belt-tightening in the U.S. will slow growth this year. Across-the-board government spending cuts, known as the sequester, were the "wrong way" to shrink the budget deficit, it said in its semiannual report on economic growth. Those cuts should be replaced by more targeted reductions that would take effect further down the road -- after the economy gains strength, the report said.”

“The U.K. government, which in 2010 embarked on a closely watched effort to escape its slump through tax increases and spending cuts, also should consider easing up on its austerity drive amid a weak recovery there, the IMF said. And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.”

“IMF Renews Push Against Austerity”

• And it warned euro-area policy makers against focusing too much on hitting tough deficit targets, saying they risked further deepening their downturn.

• "Fiscal adjustment needs to proceed gradually, building on measures that limit damage to demand in the short term," the IMF said.

• The IMF also called on countries like Germany that have traditionally relied on exports for growth to lift spending to stimulate their economies and, the IMF hopes, imports from the country's struggling neighbors.

• "There is a need for higher demand" in countries with big trade surpluses, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech last week. "For countries in Northern Europe, like Germany, it means doing more to boost investment."

• Extension of unemployment benefits• Iceland, Greece• But reduction in Portugal

• Targeted interventions to help some groups • Youth; Low-skilled; Long-term unemployed (see chart that

follows)

• Move away from duality• Too late to stop layoff of temporary workers• But reduction in employment protection on permanent

contracts could help hiring as recovery takes hold

Recommendations: Labor Market Policies

23

‘Recovery’ differs across groups

24

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

Youth (aged 15-24) Older workers (aged 55-64)

Low-skilled (aged 25-64) High-skilled (aged 25-64)

Ratio of each group's employ ment relativ e to ov erall employ ment, a OECD av erage, b 2008 Q1-2011 Q4, index = 100 at the start of the

crisis

• In some Euro area countries, need reduction in relative wages

• Best way to achieve would be through national tripartite agreement

• Experience of Latvia, Ireland, Greece

• Without such an agreement• More flexibility in wage-setting • Reduction in public sector wages• Reduction in minimum wage• Fiscal devaluations

• Higher inflation in North relative to South

Competitiveness

25

• Higher potential growth and lower natural rate of unemployment desirable

• Product market reforms– essential for medium-run but can hurt in the short-run

• Labor market reforms– move away from duality– more flexible wage-setting– Reduce tax distortions to raise participation, particularly for

females– Raising retirement age and adjusting benefits to raise participation

of older workers

Medium-run Growth

26