Evaluating mineral commodity supply chains
Mining & Metallurgical Society of America
19 August, 2020
Nedal T. Nassar, Ph.DNational Minerals Information Center
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Data source: Christian, B., Romanov, A., Romanova, I. & Turbini, L. Elemental Compositions of Over 80 Cell Phones. J. Electron. Mater. 43, 4199–4213 (2014).
Average elemental content of 85 cellular phones manufactured from 1998 to 2013 (excludes batteries; did not test for all elements)
Average concentration (grams per phone)
Modern technology makes use of a wide range of elements of
the periodic table.
The pace of technological change continues to accelerate,
with significant implications for mineral resource demand.
W.-Q. Chen, T. E. Graedel, In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112, 6265–6270 (2015).
Consumer electronics use in the United States
And it is not just about consumer electronics…
Defense and
national security75
ReRhenium
Photo credit: Master Sgt. John R. Nimmo, Sr.
U.S. Air Force F-35A
Lightning II Joint Strike
Fighter
32
GeGermanium
Gen. III Ground Panoramic
Night Vision Goggles
31
GaGallium
33
AsArsenic
Photo credit: L3 Technologies, Inc.
Healthcare64
GdGadolinium
Photo credit: GE Healthcare
PET/CT diagnostic
imaging
63
EuEuropium
71
LuLutetium
65
TbTerbium
39
YYttrium
58
CeCerium
Offshore direct
drive wind turbinePhoto credit: US DOE
Energy
generation
60
NdNeodymium
66
DyDysprosium
Thin-film solar PV
Photo credit: Testbourne, Ltd.
49
InIndium
31
GaGallium
34
SeSelenium
Transportation
27
CoCobalt
28
NiNickel
6
CCarbon
3
LiLithium
Photo credit: Telsa, Inc.
Electric and hybrid
vehicles
25
MnManganese
Bauxite, 4.4Molybdenum, 3.6
Zinc, 2.1
World GDP (const. 2010 US$), 3.6
Gallium, 37.5
Rhenium, 11.4
Indium, 15.9
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Glo
bal p
rod
uc
tio
n(Y
ea
r 1
97
5 =
1)
Year
To meet demand, global production has increased markedly over the
past few decades, especially for certain ‘minor metals.’
Data source: Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., comps., 2017, Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the United States (2016 version): U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140, available at
https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/historical-statistics/; USGS Minerals Yearbooks and Mineral Commodity Summaries; GDP data from World Bank.
Share of element’s primary production obtained as a byproduct
Many of the mineral commodities required for advanced technologies are
recovered only as byproducts during the processing of other minerals.
N. T. Nassar, T. E. Graedel, E. M. Harper, By-product metals are technologically essential but have problematic supply. Science Advances 1, e1400180 (2015).
Production of many mineral commodities is highly
concentrated in a few countries.Share of each element’s global production from various countries
Australia
Canada
Brazil
Chile
China
D.R. Congo
Russia
South Africa
Data source: USGS Minerals Yearbooks
Not all elements assessed
NA
NA
China’s share of global primary production
Cd
Zn China’s share of
global primary
production
( 0-100%)
Time series
(1996-2015)
Element
symbol
Data source: USGS Minerals Yearbooks
China’s share of global primary production has increased
markedly over the past two decades for many commodities.
EXPLANATION
60
58
46
21
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018
2014
1984
1954
Number of mineral commodities
25 to 50
>50 to <100
100
U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2019, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, USA.
S. M. Fortier, J. DeYoung, J.H., E. S. Sangine, S. E. K., “Comparison of U.S. net import reliance for nonfuel mineral commodities—A 60-year retrospective (1954–1984–2014)” (U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, 2015).
Like many developed countries, the United States is highly import
reliant for a large and growing number of mineral commodities.Growing U.S. net import reliance
Net import reliance(as % of apparent consumption)
2018 U.S. net import reliance
2
1
4
3Alumina
Aluminum
Copperr
Leadm
Leadr
Molybdenum
Steel
Sulfur
Zincm
Magnesium
AntimonyBismuth
CobaltrGalliumL
GermaniumPotash
Rare earthsSilver
Tellurium
Yttrium
Zincs
Tins
Beryllium BoronCadmium Cobaltm
CoppermGalliumH
Iron
Selenium
Chromium
Lithium
Manganese Niobium
PalladiumPlatinum
Rhenium Rhodium
Tantalum
Titanium
Zirconium
0
50
100
0 50 100
U.S
. N
et
Imp
ort
Reli
an
ce
China Net Import Reliance
25
75
25 75
Analyzing mineral import reliance of nations concurrently
highlights interdependencies and competition potential.
Indium
A. L. Gulley, N. T. Nassar, S. Xun, China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 115, 4111–4115 (2018).
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Thousand m
etr
ic tons o
f conta
ined c
obalt
Rest of world supply
China foreign control
China domestic
Through foreign investment, China has been able to secure a sizable
portion of its supply for cobalt and other mineral commodities.
Data source: Gulley, A.L., McCullough, E.A., and Shedd, K.B., 2019, China’s domestic and foreign influence in the global coba lt supply chain: Resources Policy, v. 62, p. 317–323.
China’s overseas
investments
▪ Chinese firms have
acquired equity shares
in overseas mineral
assets including:
▪ Cobalt in D.R. Congo,
Zambia, and Papua
New Guinea
▪ Niobium in Brazil
▪ Lithium carbonate in
Australia and Chile
▪ These acquisitions
may limit the
availability of these
commodities during a
conflict scenario
China’s overseas investment in cobalt assets
Co-chairs
Subcommittee members
▪ Develop, apply, and periodically update a
methodology for dynamically assessing mineral
criticality and for signaling emerging critical or
strategic minerals
▪ Review and analyze domestic and global policies
that affect the supply of critical and strategic
minerals, assess their implications on U.S.
manufacturing, and evaluate potential strategies
for risk mitigation as needed
▪ Advise on international interactions involving
critical and strategic mineral supply chains
▪ Consider and offer recommendations for
enhanced U.S. minerals data collection and
economic analysis
Functions
U.S. National Science and Technology CouncilSubcommittee on Critical and Strategic Mineral Supply Chains
𝑅 = 𝐻 ∙ 𝐸 ∙ 𝑉Supply Risk
Risk associated with a supply disruption
HazardLikelihood of a supply
disruption
ExposureDegree of exposure to a supply
disruption
VulnerabilityAbility to withstand the effects of a
supply disruption
An enhanced methodology for assessing supply risk for
the U.S. manufacturing sector has been developed.
All components
are necessary,
but each alone is
an insufficient
condition for risk
N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Science Advances. vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
AutomotivePetroleumChemicalElectricalGlassMedical & dentalJewelryOther
Disruption
Potential
Trade
ExposureEconomic
Vulnerability
Likelihood of a foreign
supply disruption
Degree of exposure to a
supply disruption
Ability to withstand the effects
of a supply disruptionIssue
IndicatorConcentration of production in
countries that may become unable or
unwilling to supply the United States
Net import reliance as a
percentage of apparent
consumption
Annual expenditure on the mineral
commodity by each industrial sector
relative to each sector’s profitability
325180: Other basic inorganic chemical mfg.
339910: Jewelry and silverware mfg.
Annual Survey of
Mining Companies
Willingness to
Supply Index
Imports
Exports
Pt
333611: Turbine and turbine generator set unit mfg.
334510: Electromedical apparatus mfg.
333249: Other industrial machinery mfg.
334112: Computer storage devices
324110: Petroleum refineries
336390: Other motor vehicle parts mfg.
Stock releases
Stock additions
Secondary
production (recycling)
Primary
production
Apparent
consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Ra
tio
of
alu
min
um
ex
pe
nd
itu
re t
o o
pe
rati
ng
pro
fits
of
U.S
. m
an
ufa
ctu
rin
g in
du
str
ies
Cumulative contribution to U.S. GDP of aluminum-consuming manufacturing industries(as percentage of GDP and billion USD)
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Cookware & cooking utensils
Portable appliances
Bridges, streets, & highways
Household &
institutional foil
Gutters and downspouts
Trucks & buses (gross vehicle weight over 10,000 lbs.)
Air conditions, freezers, refrigerators
Passenger cars and light trucks
Awnings, canopies, and residential siding
Trailers & semitrailers
Curtain wall, store fronts and entrances
Windows, doors, & screens
Metal cans & semi-rigid food containers
Other transportation
Manufactured housingOther building & construction
Other containers & packaging
Other consumer durables
Machinery & equipmentOther applications
Electrical
Sector’s
vulnerability
(vertical axis)
Sector’s
importance
(horizontal axis)
Economic Vulnerability
(area)
$74 $147 $221 $294 $368 $442 $515 $589 $662 $736 $810 $883
𝐸𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑐 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖,𝑡 =
𝑗
𝑉𝐴𝑗,𝑡𝐺𝐷𝑃
∙𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖,𝑗,𝑡𝑂𝑃𝑗,𝑡
N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Science Advances. vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
Cadmium
Feldspar
Lithium
Mica
Rhenium
Selenium
Zirconium
Arsenic
Indium
Strontium
Tellurium
CopperGold
Iron ore
Molybdenum
Lead
Phosphate
Tin
Aluminum
AntimonyBarite
Chromium
Cobalt
Germanium
Palladium
Manganese
Nickel
Niobium
PlatinumPotash
Rhodium
Silver
Tantalum
Titanium
Vanadium
Zinc
Beryllium
Helium
MagnesiumTungsten
Bismuth
Cerium
Dysprosium
Gallium
Graphite
Iridium
Lanthanum
Neodymium
Praseodymium
Ruthenium
Samarium
Yttrium
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0 0.5 1.0
Eco
no
mic
Vu
lnera
bil
ity
Disruption Potential
2016
N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S.
manufacturing sector. Science Advances. vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0 0.5 1.0
Eco
no
mic
Vu
lne
rab
ilit
y
Disruption Potential
Lanthanum
2007
2011
2016
China’s threats to cut-off supplies
drive global prices for rare earths
to unprecedented levels
Rare earth prices fall
significantly due
excessive capacity
and illegal
production in China
Production outside China,
mainly in Australia, ramps up.
20142008
2009
20102012
2013
2015
N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S.
manufacturing sector. Science Advances. vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral
commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing
sector. Science Advances. vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
A subset of commodities pose the greatest supply risk for
the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Supply risk
Low risk High risk N.T. Nassar, et al. Evaluating the mineral commodity supply risk of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Science Advances.
vol. 6, no. 8, eaay8647
Schnebele E, Jaiswal K, Luco N, Nassar NT (2019) Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply. Resources Policy 63:101430.
Spatial concentration of mineral
production in tectonically active
areas may pose a higher risk of
supply disruption
Future work will examine additional hazards that may disrupt
mineral supplies.
Calls to Action Lead agencies
A federal strategy to ensure secure and reliable supplies of
critical minerals provides six calls to action.
Strengthen America’s Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Defense Industrial Base
Improve Access to Domestic Critical Mineral Resources on Federal Lands and Reduce Federal Permitting Timeframes
Enhance International Trade and Cooperation Related to Critical Minerals
Advance Transformational Research, Development, and Deployment Across Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Improve Understanding of Domestic Critical Mineral Resources
Grow the American Critical Minerals Workforce
Current
net import
reliance
Domestic demand
Domestic supply
Business-as-usual
Manufacturing improvements
Illustrative goal: Decrease net import reliance to no more
than 25% from non-allied nations
Projected
net import
reliance
Increased domestic primary
supply
Increased domestic secondary
supply
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Quantitythousand metric tons per year
2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Substitution
Secured through trade ties
with allied nations
Scenarios can be developed to determine which strategies are most
effective for achieving a specific goal for a specific commodity.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
World electricity generation capacity projections
Based on U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2019 International Energy Outlook “Case Reference” scenario. “Other renewables” includes geothermal and biofuels
By 2041, Solar is expected to comprise the largest share of
global installed electricity generation capacity.
GW
Coal
Natural gasWind
Other renewables
Nuclear
Solar
Hydroelectric
Liquids-fired
Projection
Solar PV technologies require different minor metals that are
produced mainly or only as byproducts.
Images for solar PV technologies are obtained from Jean, J., Brown, P.R., Jaffe, R.L., Buonassisi, T., and Bulovic, V., 2015, Pathways for solar photovoltaics: Energy & Environmental Science, v. 8, no. 4, p. 1200–1219.
All copyrights reserved.
Main sources
Summer generation
capacity (MW)
Solar PV technology &
year of first operation
>64
32 - 64
16 - 32
<4
c-S
i
CdTe
α-S
i
CIG
SO
the
r
2001–052006–10
2011–152016–18
4 - 16
4 2 0 2 2 32 33 99 235
786
1,599
2,720
3,3353,392
8,029
5,0434,810
31%
43%
35%27%
18%
16%
19%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al
U.S
. u
tili
ty-s
ca
le s
ola
r P
V
ca
pa
cit
y a
dd
itio
ns
sti
ll in
-us
e t
od
ay
(MW
)
Based on data from U.S. Energy Information Agency, EIA-860 data series. Adapted from Nassar, N.T., Wilburn, D.R., and Goonan, T.G., 2016, Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the
year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios: Applied Energy, v. 183, p. 1209–1226.
In the United States, CdTe also has the largest market share of
the thin-film solar PV technologies.
Figures exclude small-scale and distributed solar PV
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Tantalum from tin slag
Tantalum from mineralconcentrates
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Sputtering targetsAlloy additivesChemicalsCarbidesMill products
Primary production(metric tons of Ta content)
Demand(metric tons of Ta content)
Tantalum’s supply and demand have undergone a number of
significant shifts over the past few decades.
How have these shifts
affected tantalum’s
global stocks and
flows?
How much tantalum is
used, recycled, and lost
at each life cycle
stages?
How much tantalum is
in-use today and how
much is being discarded
from use annually?
Nassar, N.T., 2017, Shifts and trends in the global anthropogenic stocks and flows of tantalum: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 125, p. 233–250.
Tracking mineral commodities throughout their life cycle provides
insights into how the resource is being managed.
Nassar, N.T., 2017, Shifts and trends in the global anthropogenic stocks and flows of tantalum: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 125, p. 233–250.
Global flows of tantalum(metric tons of Ta content, circa 2015)
metric tons Ta content
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Tracking mineral commodity flows over time helps to identify trends and
provides insights into the impacts of those trends.
Estimated end-of-life recycling
rate for tantalum
Nassar, N.T., 2017, Shifts and trends in the global anthropogenic stocks and flows of tantalum: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 125, p. 233–250.
100%13%
4%83% 7%
<1% 4%
51%
21%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Status of tantalum above ground(thousand metric tons Ta content)
In-use
dissipation
Downgraded
scrap
End-of-life
discards
In-use
stocks
Primary
production
Processing
losses
Industry
stocks
Demand net
of recycling
Mfg.
losses
Assessing stocks of minerals contained in goods in-use provides an understanding of
above-ground resource endowments, economic development, and recycling potential.
Ta mineral concentrates
Ta from tin slags
Intermediates
Capacitors
Mill products
Carbides
Chemicals
Alloy additives
Sputtering targets
Nassar, N.T., 2017, Shifts and trends in the global anthropogenic stocks and flows of tantalum: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 125, p. 233–250.
1,190 314
876
410
350
1,350
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Flows out of use EOL recycled or downcycled EOL discards or additions tohibernating stocks
Primary production
Based on : Nassar, N.T., 2017, Shifts and trends in the global anthropogenic stocks and flows of tantalum: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 125, p. 233–250.
Papp, J., 2017, 2015 Advanced Tables – Tantalum, 2015 Minerals Yearbook, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA.
Global flows of tantalum(metric tons of Ta content in the year 2015)
Rwanda
D.R.
Congo
Burundi
Brazil
China
Ethiopia
Other
Ta from
Sn slag
Quantifying end-of-life flows can help inform recycling
policies.
Capacitors
Mill productsCarbides
ChemicalsAlloy additives
Sputtering targets
Summary
➢ An enhanced assessment based on a risk-
modeling framework has been developed to
help identify minerals that are at the greatest
risk of a supply disruption
➢ A combination of trends and issues raise
concerns regarding the reliability of supply for
certain non-fuel mineral commodities
➢ A federal strategy to ensure secure and reliable
supplies of critical minerals has been developed
and is being implemented
