Evaluating risks and opportunities while protecting Florida’s environment

USGS Florida Activities Related to Climate Change, Energy Resources,

And New Technologies

Robert A. RenkenAssociate Director for Hydrologic StudiesU.S. Geological SurveyFort Lauderdale Office

Overwhelming Scientific Consensus

The National Academy of Sciences (2005) “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change.”

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change--CNA Corp (2007) for Dept of Defense“The nature and pace of climate change are grave and pose grave implications for U.S. national security.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) … “unequivocally” due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

U. S. Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.1 (2009)“Climate warming will raise sea levels and potentially increase storms, resulting inincreased erosion, wetland loss, salt water intrusion. Actions and plans are neededat national and state levels for adaptation to future climate conditions.”

Past 10,000 Years

Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric change in the past 100 years: Global mean temperature increase:

0.74 degrees C over past 100 yrs. 0.65 degrees C over past 5 years

1850

2000

The changing landscape factor

Climate change in the Southeastern USWhat can we expect?

• Increased air and water temperatures will create stress for humans, plants and animals

• Decreased water availability

• Increased coastal storm intensity, storm surge, and long-term sea level rise

• Ecological thresholds will be crossed – major disruptions to ecosystems

US Climate Research ProgramSAP 4.1, 2009

Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center

Southeastern US Precipitation Trends

Historic Eustatic Sea-Level RiseSea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable

environments show a rise of around 20 centimeters per century (2 mm/year). Source: IPCC 2001

Modified from IPCC 2007 report

Increasing Range in Sea-Level Rise

Projections Since 2007

2007 IPCC Sea Level Rise Median Projection

Se

a l

eve

l c

han

ge

(in

ch

es

)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

> 6 meters (21 feet)

Effects of increased sea-level rise and storm intensity

Loss of coastal habitats and resources Increased coastal erosion Loss of recreation resources (beaches,

marshes) Saltwater intrusion into aquifers, water wells,

septic systems Elevated storm-surge flooding levels Greater, more frequent coastal inundation Increased risk to people and infrastructure

Gre

ater

pot

entia

l im

pact

(Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999, 2000)

North Captiva Island

Sept 2001 August 2004

SEA LEVEL RISE: POTENTIAL FOR INNUNDATION AND EROSION

Retreat from low-lying coastlines

In some coastal areas retreat may be the most cost effective option.

“Protect, Accommodate, Retreat”(IPCC response strategies for accelerated sea level rise)

• Florida’s energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm impacts….

• The interdependencies of fuel, transportation and electrical generation

and distribution were found to be major issues in Florida’s recovery from recent major hurricanes. 

\

Bull et al., 2007, US. Climate Science Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5  

Stationarity is dead – the future will not look like the past

Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060

(Paul Milly et al., 2005)

Total water withdrawals in Florida by major category, 2005

12 BGD water used forpower generation

Florida Power Industry

Total water withdrawn and consumed in Florida by category, 2005 (billion gallons per day)

Total water withdrawn and gross power generated in Florida, 1970-2005

Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion

Hydrologic models to assess climate changeData Collection

Prediction &uncertainty

Conceptualization, simulation & sensitivity

Saltwater Intrusion Sensitivity Analysis

• Historic SLR affected saltwater intrusion• Withdrawals had a greater impact• Sum of multiple forcings greater than

individual forcings

1850 1994

Zygnerski and Langevin, 2008

. GCM SPATIAL DOWNSALING

Hindcasting and Forecasting Climate Impacts on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Everglades

Integrated Modeling Approach:• Enhance existing hydrology model

to hindcast SLR and historic vegetation change

• Add hurricane disturbance • Assess habitat suitability• Add NARCCAP AOCGM

climate predictions• Add Land use/land change• Three scenarios (1900, 2010, 2050,

greenhouse gas, temp & precip impacts)

• Develop predictive capability for SLR under restoration and management scenarios

SALTWATER INTRUSION -- 2 FT SEA LEVEL RISE

100

75

50

25

0

Time inundated (%)2 FT SLRExisting sea level

Innundation and increased surface water salinity

Simulated two foot increase in sea level

Carbon sequestration:

Deliberate effort to decrease the net flux of CO2 to the atmosphere by sequestering it from the atmosphere to

the land and oceans

• Geologic Sequestration• Terrestrial /biologic sequestration

Geologic sequestration

Geologic sequestration

http://energy.er.usgs.gov/health_environment/co2_sequestration/

• Digital database of borehole geophysical log data

• Map the regional extent of saline aquifer systems

• Delineate salinity variations at key well sites and along section lines and depict fresh and saltwater interfaces

Saline Water Aquifer Mapping Project in the Southeastern United States

Groundwater Resources Program

Biological carbon sequestration

Evapotranspiration & Carbon Network

Urban station (with UCF Biology Department)

A L A B A M A

G E O R G I A

ET & CO2

ET

USGS/UCF Urban Carbon Project• Characterize carbon and water flux in an urban landscape• Relate the carbon/water flux to landcover• Develop models for optimizing carbon uptake and water

conservation

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

395

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Example Data for Average atmospheric CO2 concentra-tions

(Oct. 4 - Nov. 6, 2008)EastWestTraffic

Time of day (h)

CO2

conc

entr

ation

(ppm

)

Traffi

c vo

lum

e (v

ehic

le/h

r.)

Carbon sequestration through restoration of former wetlands (IPCC, 2007)

Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

QUESTIONS ?

Global Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sequestration

Sundquist et al., 2008