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Evaluating Viking eco-cultural niche variability between the Medieval
Climate Optimum and the Little Ice AgeAntunes Nicolas 1, William Banks1, Francesco D’Errico1
1 Univ. Bordeaux, PACEA, UMR 5199, F-33400 Talence, France.
DEBATING SPATIAL ARCHAEOLOGYInternational Workshop on Landscape and Spatial Analysis in ArchaeologySantander, June 8th - 9th, 2012
Ecological Niche (Hutchinson 1957) : a region in a multi-dimensional space of environmental factors that allow species survival (n-dimensional = hypervolume).
=> Predictive Algorithms
Predictive Algorithms
GARP : Genetic Algorithm Rule-set Prediction ( Stockwell and Petersr, 1999)
Maxent : Maximum Entropy ( Phillips et al., 2004, 2006)
Obtaining a niche prediction
Obtaining a niche prediction
1 – Observed presence – geographic coords.- Presence / absence or pseudo-absence- Presence only
1 – Observed presence – geographic coords.- Presence / absence or pseudo-absence- Presence only
Obtaining a niche prediction
1 – Observed presence – geographic coords.- Presence / absence or pseudo-absence- Presence only
2 – Environmental layers
Obtaining a niche prediction
1 – Observed presence – geographic coords.- Presence / absence or pseudo-absence- Presence only
2 – Environmental layers
Obtaining a niche prediction
3 – Algorithm Run=> Hypervolume calculation=> Applied to each pixel.
Ecological Niche Estimation
3 – Algorithm Run=> Hypervolume calculation=> Applied to each pixel.
1 – Observed presence – geographic coords.- Presence / absence or pseudo-absence- Presence only
2 – Environmental layers
Obtaining a niche prediction
PredictiveAlgorithmEnvironnemental
layers
Culture locations
Ecocultural Niche
Eco-cultural Niche Modelling ( ECNM) Replacement of Species by Culture
Norse Settlement
Collapse hypothesis
Collapse hypothesis
• Isolated
• Iron• Timber• Fresh water• Hay
• Isolated• Wind & Summer Drought
Collapse hypothesis
Collapse hypothesis
• Isolated• Wind & Summer Drought• Disease & Famine
• Iron• Timber• Fresh water• Hay
• Isolated• Wind & Summer Drought• Disease & Famine• Farming Impact
Collapse hypothesis• Iron• Timber• Fresh water• Hay
Collapse hypothesis
• Isolated• Wind & Summer Drought• Disease & Famine• Farming Impact• Conflict with indigenous• Piracy
• Iron• Timber• Fresh water• Hay
Collapse hypothesis
Little Ice Age
• Isolated• Wind & Summer Drought• Disease & Famine• Farming Impact• Conflict with indigenous• Piracy
• Iron• Timber• Fresh water• Hay
first to disappear (Abandoned Sites before 1350 AD)
Sites occupied during MCO and the LIA
MCO Settlement
LIA Settlement
Settlement location
Example: January, 801 DCE, Global simulation (Jungclaus 2010)
Surface Solar Radiation Surface Temperature
PrecipitationMean Barometric Pressure
Time Focus 1: IX / X Centuries
Spatial Focus : Northern Regions
Time Focus 2: XV /XVI Centuries
Mean by yearMean by January MonthesMean by April MonthesMean by July MonthesMean by October Monthes
Mean by yearMean by January MonthesMean by April MonthesMean by July MonthesMean by October Monthes
20 Climatic Variables 20 Climatic Variables
Interpolation of each 2x20 layers
Var LD Var HD
=>future = Statistical DownScaling
DEM
future experiments => more topographic variables
Environemental Layers
-80 -60 -40 -20
5060
7080
250260270280
20 Climatic Variables
Maxent GARPMCO
LIALIA
MCO
Presence probability
Environmental Layers (x21)
ECNM Prediction
=> Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
presencepresencepresence
Quantifying the environmental parameters that define the predicted niche
d = 2
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Garp MWP MSLP_m1
TEMP_year
PREC_m7
MSLP_m10
PREC_m1
DEM
TEMP_m1 SolarRad_m1
TEMP_m7
MSLP_year
PREC_year
PREC_m10
TEMP_m4 MSLP_m7
SolarRad_m10 TEMP_m10
SolarRad_m7
SolarRad_m4
PREC_m4 SolarRad_year
MSLP_m4 Garp MWP
Eigenvalues
d = 2
1
2
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Garp LIA MSLP_m1
TEMP_year
PREC_m7
MSLP_m10
PREC_m1
DEM
TEMP_m1
SolarRad_m1
TEMP_m7
MSLP_year
PREC_year
PREC_m10
TEMP_m4
MSLP_m7 SolarRad_m10 TEMP_m10
SolarRad_m7
SolarRad_m4
PREC_m4
SolarRad_year
MSLP_m4 Garp LIA
Eigenvalues
MCO
October Precipitation
July Solar Radiation
January Barometric Pressure
October Temperature
Densities of predicted areaas a function of climatic variables
MCO SettlementLIA Settlement
October Precipitation
July Solar Radiation
January Mean Sea Level Pressure at the Surface
October Temperature
Densities of predicted areaas a function of climatic variables
Left offset of Niche
MCO SettlementLIA Settlement
Perspectives
• Add additional variables• Apply Downscaling method• Compare Niche Breadth• Evaluate possible niche shift
Gracias por su atención.