‘Evolving demand for food crops research for sustainable

intensification of agriculture’Peter Craufurd

With contributions from CIMMYT, ICRISAT, CIP, ICARDA, CIAT

Contents

• What do we mean by Sustainable Intensification (SI)?

• Ethiopia’s context & trends in food crop production

• Yield gaps• Evolving demand: systems research for SI &

risk-reduction

Sustainable intensification

‘Sustainable intensification is about optimising productivity and a range of environmental and possible other outcomes’

‘Efficiency of inputs used relative to desired outputs; and desired outputs in relation to undesirable outputs’ Garnet & Godfray 2012

• CONTEXT specific• TIME & SPACE (landscapes not just field or communities )

‘Sustainable intensification needs a reduction in market transaction costs and improved productivity of commodity or labour that can be invested elsewhere.’ Lynam 2014

Profitability of current & improved crop technology is limited

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Cases

Net

retu

rns (

$ /

ha /

seas

on, 2

005

PPP) Harris and Orr, 2013Black bars – farmer practice

Red bars – improved practice

Median returns

Note: large yield increase on small area = not muchTake care in extrapolation; need for trade-off/bioeconomic models

Context of agriculture Ethiopia• Huge diversity/heterogeneity between & within farming

systems

• Largest livestock population in Africa (challenges & opportunities for crop & system intensification)

• High climate variability & vulnerability (risk & opportunity)

• Limited land for crop expansion• Private sector (especially SME) less

developed than in other countries• Dominance of public institutions, and

low private sector role in Agricultural Innovation Systems

Trends in aggregate food crop area

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000 CerealsOilseedsPulsesRoots and tubers

Area (ha)

Trends in aggregate food crop area

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000

Area (ha)OilseedsPulsesRoots and tubers

Opportunities for future expansion crop land are limited

Trends in aggregate food crop yield

Root & tuber yield not changed much : 70-80000 hg/ha

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

02000400060008000

1000012000140001600018000

Yield (hg/ha)

Cereals

Oilseeds

Pulses

Source: CSA (courtesy DTMA)

Production of maize in Ethiopia

In the last decade intensification, rather than extensification, major driver of production increase in cereals & pulses; roots & tubers area is increasing

Yield gaps are an opportunity

CropArea

(M ha)

Total prod’n (MMT)

Average yield (t/ha)

On-farm yield

(t/ha) On-station yield (t/ha)

Maize 2.01 6.16 3.01 6 to 8 9 to 12Wheat 1.63 3.43 2.11 2.5 to 5 3.5 to 5.5Sorghum 1.71 3.60 2.11 3.3 4.2

Source CSA 07/08

Poor access to: • improved cultivars & quality seed• Pesticides• Irrigation• Extension…

Evolving research agenda for SI

Accessible & functioning markets (value chains) are essential for SI• Where & for whom can SI work?• What can we do for those who cannot adopt SI?– Better targeting of ‘clients’; value-chains, farmer

typologies, decision-support, bio-economic models- Basket of interventions for SI, diversification & risk reduction that include crops, livestock & trees

Hand-held Greenseeker

• New cultivars (yield, biotic & abiotic tolerance, food & feed quality) major entry point

• Need greater integration & promotion of crop/system management with new cultivars; missed opportunity

• Invest in small-scale mechanisation; timing, frees up labour, gender-friendly, income generating options

Evolving research agenda for SI

• Invest in precision agriculture for smallholders; fertilizer use & efficiency

• NRM interventions can be complex & knowledge intensive; investigate stepwise introduction of components; how to scale up?

• Risks & opportunities of climate variability & other shocks; rapid release & seed production cultivars; seasonal weather forecasting, crop insurance linked to interventions

Evolving research agenda for SI

• Community, watershed, landscape approaches for land & water management (climate smart landscapes)

• Irrigation

Systems research for SI• Agro-ecological zones (potential)• Crop, livestock, farm and landscape

systems (scale)• Temporal changes (resilience)• Access to input/output markets;

information; credit (enabling)• Farm size, assets, objectives (livelihood

systems)Design of systems• Future trajectories of change?• Tools for trade-off analysis & understanding farmer

(& other stakeholder) decisions

Invest in capacity building (& logistics) to scale-up – an example from India

Number of 2009 2012 RatioFarmers 0.20m 4.39 mArea (ha) 0.20m 3.73m Farm facilitators 517 9,700 1:450Lead farmers 1867 45,000 1:100

BhoochetanaFarm facilitators paid $2.50/d x 180d = $436,500 in 2012

• Favorable enabling environment - subsidized seed & nutrients ; investment in logistics/storage of seed, fertiliser; KN State Gov’t invested >$2m in soil testing

• ICRISAT had 15 MSc and 2 PhD FTE in the field permanently, plus 1 FTE full-time for 10 years in KN Dept. Agric.

• Collaboration with Digital Green for farmer-to-farmer videos• Be or find a champion!

Thank you