Examining the social consequences of extreme weather:the outcomes of the 1946/1947 winter in uplandWales, UK

C. A. Jones & S. J. Davies & N. Macdonald

Received: 14 September 2010 /Accepted: 9 January 2012 /Published online: 8 February 2012# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Abstract Extreme forms of weather are predicted to become more frequent experiencesin the future. However, the hardest event to mitigate against is the unexpected. In theUK, the occurrence of winter snowfall is difficult to predict, highly variable, bothspatially and temporally and predicted to become less common in the future. This paperexamines the consequences of the severe winter of 1946/1947 at the local scale througha Welsh case study of Cwm Tywi, a community of upland sheep farms. This community hadshown great resilience during the snowiest winter on record in comparison with other, moreurban communities, but the inhabitants eventually abandoned their homes because of theemotional distress caused by the loss of a large proportion of the livestock. In addition to theseverity of the snow, perceptions of the extreme nature of this event and the community’s abilityto mitigate as a result of rurality, self-sufficiency and remoteness are investigated through theanalysis of interviews, oral histories, and other documentary accounts. This case study providesan insight into the complexity of understanding vulnerability, adaptation and resilience,which are temporally and spatially specific.

1 Introduction

Extreme weather is by its very nature rare, challenging to forecast and difficult to model.Whilst extensive research has been undertaken to determine present and future consequencesof climate change, the identification of extremes remains problematic. Since Manabe andWetherald’s first climate model (Manabe and Wetherald 1967), global models havecontinually been improved. Current models predict extreme meteorological conditionsto “become more frequent, more widespread and/or intense during the 21st century”(IPCC 2007: 17). However, the spatial and temporal extent of these occurrences are difficult

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0413-9

C. A. Jones (*) : S. J. DaviesInstitute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, Wales SY23 3DB, UKe-mail: eyj@aber.ac.uk

N. MacdonaldSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, UK

to determine, as such the value of examining extreme weather and its consequences in the nearand distant past has increasingly been recognised (e.g. Alexander et al. 2009).

It is difficult to adapt and mitigate for the unexpected, particularly as a population’sunfamiliarity with extreme weather will increase their vulnerability to it e.g. beingunaccustomed to snow and ice. For example, December 17th, 2009 brought a prolongedperiod of low temperatures and (comparatively) large amounts of snow to the UnitedKingdom (max. 57 cm of lying snow, reported from Westgate, County Durham on 7thJanuary) (Met Office 2010a, b). The duration and severity of the low temperaturesresulted in the coldest winter since 1978–1979 (Eden 2010a), with the mean Januarytemperature for most of the UK ranging from 2.5 to 3.0°C below the 1971–2000 norm(Eden 2010b). The population was unprepared for this period of extreme weather, andthis led to special news reports being transmitted, sporting fixtures being cancelled(Guardian 2010) and guides produced to inform people on how to cope with the snow(e.g. BBC News 07/10/2010a, b). This recent example of unfamiliar and prolongedweather conditions illustrates the way in which rarity (i.e. extremeness) is pivotal to theperception of the level of risk present.

The consequences of extreme weather may be different for each individual, depending ona number of factors, which are all informed by cultural and historical experiences. This viewis echoed by climatologists, such as Hulme, who suggests the use of climate change “as amagnifying glass and a mirror” (2009: 362), as opposed to considering it as explicitlyphysical and global. There is a need for local case studies that examine complexities whichare not apparent on a larger scale. Additionally, Mauelshagen and Pfister (2010) propose thatcase studies from the nineteenth and twentieth centuries should provide the most usefulinsights into social responses to climate variability, as they include a greater variety ofsources of information than earlier periods.

In this paper, we examine a small-scale example from the uplands of Wales, UK, during thewinter of 1947, using an in-depth narrative to explore the social consequences of an extremeweather event. Cwm Tywi (the upper Towy valley) provides an excellent opportunity to focuson four key themes: i.) perceptions of extreme events among the community of Cwm Tywi; ii.)the way in which the community has experienced these events; iii.) the factors influencingpersonal adaptability and vulnerability and finally iv.) institutional response to the event . Weconclude by discussing this case study and future similar meteorological conditions in terms ofthe wider concepts of vulnerability, adaptability and resilience (see Table 1 for definitions).

Table 1 A glossary definingsome key terms as theauthors intend them to beinterpreted in the context ofthis paper

Term Definition

Adaptability The ability of an individual, group orcommunity to adjust in response tosevere wintry weather or its effects,to moderate harm or take advantageof opportunities.

Resilience The ability of an individual, group orcommunity to resist, absorb,accommodate and recover from theeffects of severe wintry weather.

Vulnerability The degree to which an individual,group or community is susceptible to,and unable to cope with, adverseeffects of severe wintry weather.

36 Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53

2 The snow of 1947

The winter of 1946–1947 was extreme in many areas around the world (Namias 1947). Inthe USA, for example, low-temperature records were broken for January in Kansas, it wasthe coldest February in Florida since 1895, and March snowfall records were broken in statessuch as Virginia and West Virginia (Seamon 1947).

In the UK, a severe snow storm tracked across the country during mid January 1947, withsnowfall every day somewhere in the United Kingdom from 22nd January to the 17thMarch; a total of 55 days (Met Office 2007). The prolonged period of cold weather was theresult of a slow-moving area of low pressure near the Channel Islands and highpressure over Scandinavia, Greenland and Iceland, which maintained a very cold,mostly easterly or north-easterly, flow across Europe and into the British Isles; itresulted in one of the coldest winters in recent times (see Table 2), the snowiest winter(Booth 2007; Shellard 1968) and coldest February1 on record. This led to a nationwidecoal crisis, resulting in electricity cuts and reduced industrial production (Burroughs 1997).The atmospheric depression which arrived from the southeast on the 10th of March 1947initially deposited additional snow before turning to rain, with the subsequent rise intemperatures causing widespread flooding across many catchments in southern andcentral England (Howorth et al. 1948) (see Fig. 1). Floods resulting from snowmeltwere also recorded across much of Europe (Spain, Poland, Germany and the CzechRepublic) during the spring of 1947.

Much has been written about the meteorological conditions of 1947 and its societalimplications. For example, it is argued that this severe winter caused the UK to lose itsindependent role as a world power and was an indirect cause of the Cold War (Kaiser 1974).2

The extreme conditions capture the imagination, particularly following the relativelysevere winter of 2009–10, and are described in a number of popular accounts (e.g.McCaskill and Hudson 2006). However, whilst considerable meteorological researchwas published immediately after the winter of 1947 (e.g. Namias 1947; Seamon 1947)and some recent papers have taken a retrospective look at the period (e.g. Booth 2007),there is limited academic literature pertaining to the social consequences of this winter.This is especially notable for the rural areas of the UK, such as the remote uplands ofWales.

2.1 Socio economic context

The post-World War II period was one of turmoil in the UK. In 1945, a Labour governmentcame into power, with the country in a state of military and economic weakness (Marr 2007).Rationing was still in operation and was, in fact, more stringent because of the nation’swartime debts. As a dietary indicator, total fat consumption at 33% in 1947 was 6% lowerthan before the war (Barker and Osmond 1986). Nevertheless, the annual mortality and

1 having a mean of −1.9°C. From Mean HadCET Data, 1659–2011, Monthly ranked HadCET mean (Parker etal. 1992). These data can be found at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt2 Kaiser (1974) argues that the 1947 snow was one of the ingredients of an enormous coincidence whichresulted in the Truman Doctrine. This is because the fuel crisis in the UK, worsened by the weather conditions,diminished the country’s position as a world leader and economic strength, requiring the relinquishment of itscontrol over Greece and Turkey. It was feared that this would lead to civil wars and a Communist takeover,eventually resulting in Soviet domination in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The USA, through the TrumanDoctrine, decided to apply its power and resources in Europe and the Near East to counteract Soviet power,and this began the confrontation which resulted in the Cold War.

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 37

infant mortality rates improved after the war (Ibid.), and a post-war ‘baby boom’ increasedthe birth-rate to 20.7 per thousand in 1947 (Marwick 1990). Furthermore, the demand onagricultural land increased dramatically, with the area of arable land in the UK havingdoubled during the war (mostly for potatoes and wheat) (Marr 2007).

In Wales, agriculture and farming incomes improved quickly, with the number of tractorsreaching 13,652 in 1946 compared with 1,932 in 1938 (Davies 1990).3 The focus ofagricultural production in Wales also changed (1939–46), with a decrease in the numberof sheep in all but the highest altitude areas and an increase in the area of arable land(Borchert 1948). Unemployment in post-war Wales was much lower than during the pre-warera, as many people moved across the English border to work during the war and returningsoldiers also settled in England. Furthermore, the population’s health in Wales reflected thegeneral UK trend, in that it was generally better as a consequence of a fairer rationing systemand newly-introduced welfare schemes, such as family allowance in 1945 (Ibid.). Therefore,Wales and the UK were in a state of economic, cultural and agricultural change immediatelyafter the war.

2.2 Study area

The vast majority of agricultural land in Wales is classified as disadvantaged or severelydisadvantaged4 (Welsh Assembly Government). Despite the moderating influence of theAtlantic Ocean, these less-favourable conditions of production make the farming communitiesof Wales extremely susceptible to weather extremes.

For Welsh agricultural communities, such as Cwm Tywi in mid Wales (Fig. 2), theclimate and the annual cycle of weather are important to their farming success (exemplifiedin studies such as Taylor 1965). Cwm Tywi begins at the source of the River Towy

3 Note that Wales’ population increased from 2,593,332 (1931) to 2,596,850 (1951) (National Statistics 2001).4 These are current land classifications for Less Favoured Areas (LFA) according to both natural limitations tofarming (e.g. climate, location, landscape) and socio economic considerations.

Table 2 The ten coldest winters in Wales and the UK, 1910–1999a

UK Wales

Rank Winter Mean (°C) Winter Mean (°C)

1 1962–63 −0.18 1962–63 −0.332 1946–47 0.87 1946–47 1.12

3 1978–79 1.17 1916–17 1.19

4 1939–40 1.25 1978–79 1.64

5 1916–17 1.37 1939–40 1.78

6 1928–29 1.53 1928–29 1.95

7 1940–41 1.82 1940–41 2.33

8 1950–51 2.03 1950–51 2.71

9 1941–42 2.08 1981–82 2.72

10 1981–82 2.12 1984–85 2.73

aWinter 0 December–February. Data used are for Mean Temperature from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

38 Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53

(52°15′11.08″N, 003°45′16.16″W OSGB36 Lat/Lon), which meanders down throughthe valley and forms the border of the counties of Ceredigion and Powys. It is a part ofthe Cambrian Mountains, an area otherwise known as the ‘Green Desert of Wales’, adescription reflecting its emptiness (Howells, 2005). Today, the valley’s lower reachesare flooded as part of the Llyn Brianne Reservoir and the area is densely planted withconiferous trees, being primarily owned by the Forestry Commission. However, in1946, the valley landscape was very different; sustaining seven families in traditionalopen upland sheep farming. The sheep were their livelihoods and a system of labourexchange was employed during important farming events (i.e. when workers fromneighbouring farms and from far afield went to work on a farm during a key agricultural event,such as shearing), the chapel (Soar-y-mynydd, up to 15 miles away) and the small townof Tregaron (approximately 10 miles away) ensured social interactions despite thecommunity’s remoteness.

Cwm Tywi can be perceived as a ‘vulnerable community’ because of its remotenessand high dependency on agriculture in a challenging environmental context. Furthermore,Cwm Tywi illustrates a community completely transformed by a period of extreme weather;the valley was progressively abandoned as each family vacated their farmstead followingthe severe winter of 1947.5 The 1947 snow is perceived to be, by former residents ofCwm Tywi, the main reason for its desertion. As such Cwm Tywi provides an excellentexample in observing the internal processes which highlight the resilience or vulnerability of asector of society during the stress of extreme weather.

5 The first farm, Nant-Neuadd, was vacated in 1947. The last farm, Dolgoch, was vacated in 1967. During thatperiod, the family at Dolgoch experienced the departure of the families of Y Fanog (pre-1950), Tywi Fechan(1950), Nant-ystalwyn (1955), Bron-yr-Helm (1956) and Nantyrhwch (1960) (Jones 2007).

Fig. 1 Temperature during January–March 1947. Dashed line is the minimum Central England Temperature(CET) (Parker et a. 1992). Solid line is the average minimum temperature of selected stations within Wales(Aberystwyth: Corporation Yard, Tenby Priory, Haverfordwest, Rhyl and Colwyn Bay) (UK MeteorologicalOffice 2006)

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 39

3 Methods and approach

In order to understand the relationships between the residents of this part of uplandWales and the outcomes of the meteorological conditions of the 1947 snows, a varietyof documentary sources have been investigated. Compared with extensive investigationson social responses to climate variability in other regions such as North America andEastern Europe (e.g. Endfield et al. 2004; Pfister and Brázdil 1999) and indeedelsewhere in the British Isles (e.g. Parry 1981), the potential of documentary sourcesin Wales has remained largely untapped (Macdonald et al. 2010). Documentary sourcesinclude newspapers and personal collections such as diaries, memoirs and correspondence(both published and unpublished). It was decided to concentrate on one newspaper, theweekly Welsh Gazette. A complete collection of its publications, from 1899 to 1964, isavailable on microfilm at the National Library of Wales (NLW), Aberystwyth. Thisnewspaper contains reports in both English and Welsh and includes a large amount oflocal-interest content. The large collection of archival texts used, which include diaries,poems and memoirs, have been donated to national archives, such as the NLW,however some are only accessible through family consent. Requests for the anonymityof authors of non-published documents have been met, and noted in the footnotereference.

Because of the relatively recent timing of the 1947 snow, a number of individuals in theregion are still able to recall this period in their lives; “There are many people alive todaywhose memory [of] every hour of this [1947] storm is painfully etched, because of itsseverity and hardship” (Howells 2005: 66–67). The inclusion of semi-structured primary

Fig. 2 Maps of the study area of Cwm Tywi. Map a) is derived from the 1931–1935 Land Utilisation Surveyof Britain, showing the locations of the seven farmhouses. Map b) shows the area at present

40 Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53

interviews enables us to collect direct answers to specific questions which are difficult toglean from documentary accounts, such as emotions and retrospective perspectives.Primary interviews with surviving family members and those in the surrounding areawere conducted, many of whom were either children or young adults in 1947. Primaryinterviewees have been anonymised. A large proportion of the interviews were conducted inWelsh, as is the case for many of the secondary radio and television programmes whichaugment the analysis of primary interviews.

Secondary interviews were viewed and transcribed at the National Library of Wales(NLW), which holds the National Screen and Sound Archive of Wales, and the BBCarchives in Cardiff. These are interviews previously broadcast on radio and televisionprogrammes which were not conducted by the authors. These interviews were conductedfor a variety of broadcasts and by different interviewers. Consequently, the interviewquestions were not asked specifically for this research, but inadvertently includerelevant information. The broadcast dates of these programmes range from 1947 (forofficial radio announcements and eyewitness accounts during the snow) until 1997.Additionally, a more recent resource is the digital story, ‘The Valley by Bryn Hughes’,and its transcript which is part of the on-line NLW project, ‘From Warfare to Welfare,1939–1959’. The project is a collection of digital stories which were created bysecondary school children (age 11–16) and youth organizations, and combine narrationswith photographs or documents.

Archival material and interviews present information as a personalised source of material,which reflects the memories of an individual in a specific place and time. Personal sourcesenrich newspaper accounts and official documents by providing individual experiences, butare much scarcer because of their personal nature. Whereas official documentation may onlyprovide an overview of the general effects of adverse weather, personal accounts can, inaddition, provide memories and thoughts which may reflect a community perspective or apersonal one. Oral histories, for example, are a recognised method for uncovering ‘hiddenhistories’, giving a voice to the previously unheard individual (Riley and Harvey 2007).Bringing additional narratives to the fore, whether spoken, written, or published, can onlyadd to our understanding of that history.

The contents of the documentary sources and interview transcripts were coded manually.This method was chosen in order to retain an overview and familiarity with the data, whichmay be lost by more rapid electronic approaches. Where quotations have been translatedfrom Welsh into English, this has been noted. All translations not by C. A. Jones have beenotherwise acknowledged.

4 Results and analysis

The various sources identified above were used to investigate the effects of the severe winterof 1947 on the inhabitants of Cwm Tywi. From the analysis of primary and secondaryaccounts a number of themes can be identified which are explored below.

4.1 Perceptions of extreme events

The people of Cwm Tywi were prepared for the winter of 1947. This is a result of theirperception of a comparatively high probability of heavy snowfall occurrence which led to adesire to be prepared for each winter. This is explained by Mrs. Davies in an interview heldin the NLW.

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 41

Mrs. Davies: … You made sure now, if you went to fetch linen, you didn’t think ofgoing to the shop to fetch it, you went to the drawer in the house to fetch it. You madesure they were there already. Well the same for groceries then. Cart went about once amonth. But now the winter comes and you had to make sure you had flour—until midApril at the least. And everything. You made sure, box of tea. Fifty. If possible, about50 to a hundred of sugar. Enough over the winter. And the pigs put in the loft. And wedidn’t go down from Cwm Tywi especially to fetch meat … for Sunday. Maybe fetchthem on Tuesday. It was just as acceptable.Dafydd (interviewer): And you kill a pig at the beginning of winter then?Mrs. Davies: Yes, beginning of winter, before the beginning of the rough weather.6

(Translation)

A similar view was provided by Bryn Hughes, from the same county of Ceredigion, in hisdigital story, “Perhaps you’d think there was a problem then, that we’d starve, but everyonehad enough food. Everyone had stocked up. That was the way food was kept in those days:there was a room in every house, a cold room”7 (Translated from Welsh as a part of thedigital story production). This exemplifies the way in which an increased perception of theprobability of occurrence of snow can lead to a greater awareness of the need to mitigate theeffects.

The frequency and severity of snowfall in Wales is greatest within the uplands(Met Office 2009). As such, the perception of the probability of the occurrence ofsnow is more acute in these areas. Being more accustomed to experiencing regularsnowfall, the desire and general ability of residents to mitigate the effects is greater. Inaddition, the individual perception of rarity would depend on the person’s age, i.e.whether they lived through many similar extreme periods.

During the 1940s, there were five severe winter months (months with mean temperaturesless than 2.0°C), compared with only two in the 1930s (see Table 3). Two very severe wintermonths (months with mean temperatures less than 0°C) were had in the 1940s, namelyJanuary 1940 and February 1947, conditions which had not been experienced in the previousthree decades (see Table 4), with 1939–40, 1940–41 and 1946–47 ranking 5th, 7th and 2nd,respectively, Table 2 shows the ten coldest winters in Wales during the period 1910–1999.The severity of the first two winters (1939–40 and 1940–41) was poorly reported at thetime as a result of wartime censorship, the British government being careful not toinform enemies of any weaknesses. From a keyword search of ‘The Times’ newspaper’sdigital archive, the word “weather” was only included an average of 1116 times peryear during 1940–1942, compared with a total wartime (1939–1945) average of 1483and pre-war (1925–1938) average of 4700 times per year.8 Although the public may nothave been as dependent on newspapers for weather forecasts during the wartime period,local areas experiencing harsh weather may not have been aware of similar, or fairer,conditions nationwide. The areas most likely to have experienced the worst conditions

6 Davies (c.1960–70s) Mrs Davies of Cartref, Pontrhydfendigaid: Memories of Soar y Mynydd. NationalLibrary of Wales Screen and Sound Archive, Copy RM 6303 Disc 2 627 Hughes B (2009) The Valley. From Warfare to Welfare 1939–1959. Created by Cadw Sŵn TheatreCompany. Recorded 7 June 2009. http://www.myglyw.org.uk/index.php?id03863&L00. Accessed 10 August20108 This deficit would also incorporate the lack of wartime weather forecasts. During a state of emergency nonewspaper was allowed to carry weather forecasts (Air Ministry 1954). The restrictions were removed on the8th of May, 1945, with the first forecast in the Times appearing on the following day: The Times (09/05/1945)Weather News Again. Forecast to-day: Warm and thundery

42 Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53

during the previous winters were the uplands, whereas the lowlands may have beencomparatively unaware without experiencing these cold snaps directly. And althoughcold, the war years were not as snowy; 1947 being the snowiest on record in the UK9

(Shellard 1968).Similarly, an improved awareness of the probability of the occurrence of severe

wintry weather may also be the result of memory. Attempting to characterise memory ischallenging. Some research has been undertaken by Tobin and Montz (1994) in relationto flood memory, but little has been undertaken in relation to the memory of weatherseverity. Eden (2008) wrote that “once a [weather] phenomenon has reached 2 years oldit seems to fall out of the human memory bank” (Eden 2008: 4). The length of memorywithin upland regions, such as Cwm Tywi, could be much longer for a number ofreasons. “When people talk about the weather, one of the topics that is discussed mostfrequently is memory of past extreme weather events” (Harley 2003: 115). The ‘memory’ ofa period of extreme weather may live in the minds of Welsh farmers for longer. Storytellingis an important part of Welsh culture, described as ‘an organic part of the joy ofeveryday conversation’ (Gwyndaf 1992: 225) which would help to keep the experiencesof earlier extreme winters alive. Furthermore, a farmer’s memory of everyday weatherwould be in stark contrast to that of an indoor city worker, insulated from theexperiences of seasonal change (Hitchings 2010), a result of a farmer’s close proximityand dependency on the weather. For these reasons, the residents of Cwm Tywi’senhanced memory of pre-1947 wintry winters may have given them the perception ofa higher probability of the occurrence of snow.

4.2 Experiencing severe events

The severity of any event significantly increases the consequences. The severity isinformally defined according to its risk of major damage, serious social disruption andloss of human life (WMO, 2004). The snow of 1947 was unprecedented; being thesnowiest on record (Shellard 1968). Even the cries of “I’ve seen it worse than this”(referring to 1895) by an elderly man on the uplands of mid Wales were muted by 1947(Howells 2005: 67). This same sentiment is echoed by Mrs. Davies:

Dafydd: How was it in winter when there were winter storms and things?Mrs Davies: Well [um…], now 1896 was a hard winter. About two Sundays werewithout a service at Soar [y Mynydd Chapel] … but there were many more [Sundays]in 47.

9 According to the most number of days with snow depth of 6 cm or more at selected stations, as calculated byShellard (1968)

Table 3 The distribution of severe winter months for each decade, 1910–1999a

1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

UK 3 3 4 6 7 6 6 6 2

Wales 3 3 2 5 3 4 2 5 1

a ‘Severe winter months’ are taken here to be months with an average temperature of less than 2.0°C. Dataused are for Mean Temperature from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 43

Dafydd: That’s the biggest storm you remember?Mrs Davies: Oh yes. 47 and 1814 was the biggest they remembered before that.10

(Translation)

This sentiment is taken even further by a BBC reporter, who believed there could neverbe such a bad winter again, “When your grandchildren complain about the weather, ‘Huh,my dear boy or girl. What are you grumbling about? This is nothing compared with thewinter of nineteen hundred and forty-seven’.”11

The risk of loss of human life and financial damage caused directly by snow is smallerthan other extreme occurrences such as droughts and floods. For example, not a singlesnowstorm which was not associated with floods and/or high winds is included in the list ofUSA Billion Dollar Weather Disasters for 1980–2009 (National Climatic Data Center 2009).This is, presumably, especially so in the UK and Wales as a result of the relative temperatenature of their weather and climate. Apart from the potential flooding resulting fromsnowmelt such as in 1783/84 (Brázdil et al. 2010), the factor which increases the severityof snow, according to the definition of severe, is serious social disruption. Cliff Michelmore,a BBC presenter, recalls this disruption, “What German bombers had failed to do in wartime,the weather was going to succeed in doing in peacetime. It just about shut down the wholecountry.”12

As Mrs. Davies mentioned in the interview above, many Sunday services at Soar yMynydd Chapel were cancelled. Although this may not seem a significant misfortune, suchgatherings were integral to the social fabric of such an isolated community. The snow beganto fall when the residents were on their way home from this social centre, and according tothe memoirs of one resident they never thought, upon seeing fine snow falling, that theywere going to be closed in for 10 weeks.13

The small town of Tregaron provided the residents with most of their needs, withregards to shopping and larger social events. This was, now, unavailable to them. Socialinteraction may still have been maintained within short walking distances; however, inthe case of Cwm Tywi, social connections were severed for almost the whole ofJanuary to March, 1947.

10 Davies (c.1960–70s) Mrs Davies of Cartref, Pontrhydfendigaid: Memories of Soar y Mynydd. NationalLibrary of Wales Screen and Sound Archive, Copy RM 6303 Disc 2 6211 Included as a clip in: BBC Archives, Cardiff. A Year to Remember: 1: 1947. Audio recording, duration027m00s. BBC Radio 2 Broadcast date 10 November 1996. SCN 644/96 FT 3650. The original broadcast wasa Children’s Hour episode on World Affairs presented by Commander Stephen King Hall. Broadcast date 25March 1947. BBC Sound Archive reference 9LL0008826.12 Presenter’s recollection of 1947 in 1996: BBC Archives, Cardiff. A Year to Remember: 1: 1947. Audiorecording, duration 027m00s. BBC Radio 2 Broadcast date 10 November 1996. SCN 644/96 FT 365013 Anonymous (1976) Personal Memoirs. Unpublished. [anonymised upon the request of the family]

Table 4 The distribution of very severe winter months for each decade, 1910–1999a

1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

UK 0 0 0 4 1 2 1 1 0

Wales 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 1 0

a ‘Very severe winter months’ are taken here to be months with an average temperature of less than 0°C. Dataused are for Mean Temperature from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

44 Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53

Furthermore, the system of ‘cyfnewid’, which was a form of labour exchange betweenfarmers from a large area, was temporarily broken after 1947 as a result of the smaller sheepstock numbers:

“There was a large stock in Dolgoch before 1947. Yes yes.… In 1946, 44, 45. 85 menwere shearing in Dolgoch. In 1947, 10 were shearing. … But only neighbours werethere shearing in 1947. Only the neighbours. There was no point.”14

(Translation)

The indirect social effects of the snow lasted for much longer than expected. The snowhad killed over 80% of the sheep at Dolgoch, leaving only a small number to be sheared inthe following summer. The shearing was not the usual large social gathering of people froma large area, but rather a comparatively small congregation from a smaller local catchmentarea. The duration and intensity of the social disruption, according to the definition of‘severe’, defines the snow of 1947 as one of great severity. An ability to mitigate the effectswould be required in order to reduce the consequences of such severe weather.

4.3 Factors influencing personal adaptability and vulnerability

There are numerous factors that made the winter of 1947 so severe and which eitherincreased the people of Cwm Tywi’s ability to mitigate its severity (i.e. the serious socialdisruption) or exacerbate the situation. These are explored below and where possiblecomparisons drawn with other communities in Wales experiencing the same extremeweather.

4.3.1 Agricultural marginality

The main source of income for the Cwm Tywi families was from agriculture, in the form ofupland sheep farming. The yearly cycle of agriculture dealt a fatal blow to British farmers in1946–47 as the weather during the summer of 1946 was wet, notably so in August andSeptember, exacerbating shortages of food and fodder.15 Many farms had insufficientsupplies for even a mild winter, and much of that was of poor quality (Howells 2005).According to one interviewee, “Not a lot of farming went on because I tell you the 1946summer was so bad … so wet. If I remember correctly, there were four cows a pony and amare in the Dolgoch house [inaudible] Dad sold the cows to men to go off for the winter – hehad no food”.16 (Translation).

Even with a greater awareness of the likelihood of severe weather and a desire to mitigatethe effects, their ability to do this was impeded by the inferior harvest yield of the precedingsummer. This was a widespread problem, as one woman from the same county of Ceredigioncomplains in her diary, “We tried to sell two cows in the mart but the price was too bad:plenty of livestock for sale because of a shortage of fodder”17 (Translation). Therefore, localneighbouring farms could not help one another by sharing animal feed, the resulting death oflivestock caused additional distress to the community.

14 Anonymous Interviewee 1 (2009) Primary interview conducted by C.A. Jones 02-03-200915 Welsh Gazette (30/01/1947) Transport Grant for Hill Farmers. Aberystwyth Chronicle and West WalesAdvertiser16 Anonymous Interviewee 1 (2009) Primary interview conducted by C.A. Jones 02-03-200917 25th February 1947: Williams E (1947) Personal weather diaries, Dolau, Pentre Bach, Lampeter, Wales.Unpublished

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 45

It was estimated at the time that a total of 4 million sheep and lambs had died in the UK(Martin 2010). The sheep in the upland hills and moors accounted for approximately 75% ofthe total losses (Ibid.), and thousands were lost in Cwm Tywi. In a neighbouring village,over 500 sheep were found under a drift across the River Teifi, which were “as flat aspennies” as a result of the weight of the snow (Arch 2005: 66) (Translation). Whilst the lossof these sheep represents a short-term loss, the long-term effects were explained by a formerresident of Cwm Tywi. As a result of the open nature of hill farming, sheep need to be bredin their place. Sheep bought from the lowlands would be unsuitable. Therefore, upland sheepstocks had to be re-built from the surviving sheep. Consequently, not a single ewe was soldfrom the Dolgoch farm until 1952.18

4.3.2 Self-sufficiency

As indicated, the Cwm Tywi residents prepared thoroughly for each winter. This madethem self-sufficient and reduced their dependency on transport in the case of meat andbread. This is also evident in other areas, for example Eirlys Jones, of North Wales,describes the effect of the post-war introduction of the rationing of bread units, whichincluded all bread, flour and flour confectionary, and lasted from 1946 to 1948. “Up untilbread was rationed nearly everyone baked and aired in the large oven. It was a very difficultthing to ration the average of a sack of wheat flour to last, so everyone got used tobuying the bread”.19 (Translation). When the snow and isolation came, it made peoplelike Eirlys vulnerable, as they were unprepared for such a requirement, reducing theirself-sufficiency and increasing their vulnerability to the snow. Some, who had beenaccustomed to buying bread, had to resort to making their own once again, as was trueof David Jones’ farming family at Esgerdawe, near Llandeilo (to the south-west ofCwm Tywi), “The wind abated today and the sun came out—but the drifts remain.—Liza walked to Rhydcymerau today for yeast—fail[sic] to get bread” (Evans 2009: 41).This farmstead was close enough to walk through the snow to the nearest village ofRhydcymerau, however the rations were not considered to be enough. This is noted,once again, by David Jones, “… we had pancakes for tea today—the first now for thelast 3 or 4 years—ever since the quality of flour became poor. The quality hasimproved,—but the present ration allowed us is hardly sufficient—every crust andcrumb is devoured. For the first time we get to know what scarcity of bread means”(Evans 2009: 41).Therefore, preparing for the winter by stocking up on flour would bemuch more difficult and explains why, given the opportunity, even farming familiesabandoned the custom of bread-making for the convenience of buying bread from thelocal shop. In comparison, Cwm Tywi never adopted this extent of dependency uponshops because of the isolated nature of the community.20

Furthermore, electricity and telephone networks had not yet reached outlying areassuch as Cwm Tywi. Without a dependency on operational over-head power and phonelines, the essential daily running of a household was not affected greatly by the snow.This differs from other areas of the UK which had already received electricity and

18 Anonymous Interviewee 1 (2009) Primary interview conducted by C.A. Jones 02-03-200919 Jones E (1997) Cofio Eira 1947. Fferm a Thyddyn 20:26–2720 For instance, 30 loaves of bread were baked for the shearing of 1943 in the old brick oven of Dolgoch. Theisolation was also why the milk from Dolgoch’s cows could not be sold and was for their own consumption, asit was not feasible to transport it to the nearest town on a daily basis. Bread is of a similar, perishable nature.The commute to Tregaron was not made regularly, hence they would make their own loaves as opposed tobuying bread from shops (letter by Pat Walters in Jones 2007).

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become dependent upon it. Power was cut to domestic homes for 5 h a day21 and cutcompletely to industry22 throughout much of the UK during the winter of 1947. Thereare accounts of English urban mothers struggling to complete household chores withinthe allocated time.23 Rationing of electricity was a result of low coal stocks which wasattributable to the adverse weather.24 One self-sufficient village in Ceredigion had agenerator in the village shop which supplied enough electricity for the shop and up to 6other houses.25 Alternatives to coal were used in some other upland areas to heat thehouses, “We burnt all of the wood that was around the farmyard and barns and in theend we had to burn the piano. It wasn’t of much worth, being all warped, but it madeexcellent fuel!” (Jones 1989: 157) (Translation).

A resource that was affected throughout the country was water. Many springs and mosthousehold water systems were frozen. One lady recalls, “To stop these pipes freezing wediscovered from other neighbours that they got up in the night and pulled the chain to keepthe water circulating so we did the same”.26 It has been argued that it was the winter of 1947which “gave the water wheel its pension” (Arch 2005: 67) (Translation) as it failed toperform its usual tasks, such as milling, because the water was frozen and the wheel unableto turn. In the following October, Charles Arch’s family bought an oil engine, and a traditionwas lost (Ibid.).

4.3.3 Remoteness

Cwm Tywi was completely isolated during the snow. Each farmhouse in Cwm Tywiwas up to 4 km from the next, and the valley over 10 km from the nearest town(Tregaron). A resident shepherd of the area said that such remoteness is only lonely forpeople who were born elsewhere, and that the loneliest place ever is London.27

However, the snow of 1947 created extreme conditions never experienced before bythe inhabitants of this remote valley, and for such a long period of time. Someoccupants hardly saw any friends or family for days and weeks at a time. Thisloneliness filled Margaret Jones of Dolgoch’s days during this period. Her only son was downin the lowlands with his grandparents, separated from his mother for 3 months. Her husbandand the servant were out on the mountains looking for sheep for most of the day, leading todiary entries detailing in depth her sense of isolation:

21 From 10th February 1947 in the Southeast, Midlands, Northwest and London (Robertson 1987: 88), andfrom 13th February 1947 in the remaining areas of the UK (The Times, 13/02/1947 p. 4: Coal A “MajorMilitary Operation”). The cuts in domestic electricity continued until May 5th, 1947 (The Times, 05/05/1947p. 8: Heating restrictions in force to-day), replaced by summer space-heating restrictions.22 Government electricity cuts to industry began on 20th January, 1947, and were progressively lifted from24th February, 1947, onwards (Robertson 1987).23 e.g. Edna Foxon from Upton. On: BBC Archives, Cardiff. The Weather Show (1997). Video recording,duration 04m00s. Broadcast date 11 February 1997. LPR U856D/7124 This was the stance taken by the Government at the time. Robertson (1987) provides a detailed account ofthe circumstances that led to coal shortages in the UK. To summarise, there were low coal stocks andelectricity cuts before the snow, as early as October 1946, in consequence to the Second World War. However,the adverse weather conditions exacerbated the situation.25 Anonymous Interviewee 2 (2009) Primary interview conducted by C.A. Jones 26-10-200926 Doris Graham from Martock. On: BBC Archives, Cardiff. The Weather Show (1997). Video recording,duration 04m00s. Broadcast date 11 February 1997. LPR U856D/7127 John in: Nantllwyd (1987) John, Glyn, Alun, Dafydd, Shanco, Nansi: Bois Nantllwyd. Commentary: W.J.Gruffydd and John Nantllwyd. HTV Cymru production for S4C. 4693, Programme 08. National Library ofWales Screen and Sound Archive

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“Saturday, 1 February 1947. Cold day. Snowing at first but thawing a little.… John upthe hills in morning. Also Dick in afternoon. Very quiet all day. Would be so glad tosee anybody calling to have a chat. … Finding it a great loss without water in house.”“Saturday, 8 February … So fed up with everything & finding it so lonely & timedragging so much.”“Thursday, 6 March… Plight of sheep very serious & scores found dead & dying everyday. A very heavy fall of snow during the storm & the largest drifts ever seen in livingmemory. John & Dick up the hills together today digging sheep from under drifts.”28

These diary entries of monotonous loneliness continue throughout this period of severeweather. A particularly telling sentence comes from an interview with the son of MargaretJones ‘the 1947 winter was nearly too much for Mum, you see’29 (Translation).

4.4 Institutional responses

Having just come out of a gruelling Second World War, the post-wartime shortage of steeland money in general30 meant that no new snow ploughs were brought in to clear the roads,as would be expected, and that much of the snow-clearing had to be done by hand. Thisexacerbated the situation of the population of the lowlands. However, the timing of the snowgave some relief in the form of foreign soldiers, still resident after the war. They weresoldiers who were under orders from the War Agricultural Executive Committee31 and werea fully equipped, able and organised military group, unlike any other in the country. Theseadditional workers helped with the country’s response to the severe weather, improving theroad conditions and reducing the effects of the high dependency on transport for bread.However, tensions rose between nationalities as accusations of idleness and unwillingness tohelp were reported of those “who were only too willing to receive the hospitality of thiscountry”.32 Some Italian ex-prisoners-of-war retaliated in the press by defending their work,stating that “without our help … many homes [in Borth] would have been without milk”.33

Helicopters were used to drop fodder for stranded animals on some hilltops, but the stock ofCwm Tywi farmers were not lucky enough to receive this help.

A disaster fund of £4,575,000 was partly allocated to assist hill farmers who suffered heavysheep losses, in the form of the Agriculture (Emergency Payments) Bill. This enabled subsidypayments for hill sheep in 1948 to 1951 to be made on the basis of 1946 flock numbers.34 Anorth Wales hill-farmer, Simon Jones, expresses his thanks for the kind financial help, butstresses “The financial loss was only one thing—the sheep mean more to a shepherd than onlymoney. I heard… the best shepherd on the Berwyn [mountains, in north-east Wales]… sayingthat he’d rather die than see another winter like it. … the effect of that harsh winter lay on usfarmers for many years. It was mostly in the mind. Some fear that it would happen again”(Jones 1989: 148–161) (Translation). Moreover, the financial assistance appears to have beeninadequate for some as a man from the village of Llanddewi Brefi, not far from Cwm Tywi,committed suicide, allegedly because of the snow of 1947 (Howells 2005: 68).

28 Jones M (1947) Personal diary (unpublished), Dolgoch, Tregaron, Wales29 Anonymous Interviewee 1 (2009) Primary interview conducted by C.A. Jones 02-03-200930 Ceredigion County Council (1947) Snow Clearing, 1947. County Council Deposits: Highways. CeredigionArchives, CDC/HI/2/831 Welsh Gazette (20/03/1947) The Italians at Borth. Aberystwyth Chronicle and West Wales Advertiser32 Welsh Gazette (10/04/1947) The Snow Bill. Aberystwyth Chronicle and West Wales Advertiser33 Welsh Gazette (20/03/1947) The Italians at Borth. Aberystwyth Chronicle and West Wales Advertiser34 The Times (1947) Government aid for farmers: £4,575,000 set aside: 7 May 1947

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5 Discussion and conclusion

Michaelowa (2001) states that the ‘stabilising factors’ of English agriculture during climaticextremes in the early 18th century were agricultural diversification, agrarian innovation andimproved infrastructure. The residents of Cwm Tywi too had many, differing, factors in theirfavour during 1947. They had the benefit of a perception of a high probability of occurrenceof snow and hence a desire to prepare for and mitigate the effects of a harsh winter.Associated with this preparedness, they were self-sufficient in terms of food, especiallybread which was a major problem for the people in the lowlands, and also had a lowdependency on transport. In hindsight, the fact that electricity had not been introduced totheir homes meant that they did not feel the effects when supply was halted because of coalshortages, nor were they affected by the subsequent fuel crisis that caused problemselsewhere (Burroughs 1997). This remote community was well-prepared through beingaccustomed to austere living conditions and the harsh climate so characteristic of the Welshuplands.

The first factor which was not in their favour was agriculture, their main source ofincome, as it is extremely weather-dependent. The previous wet harvest had impeded theirefforts for preparation and led to an even greater loss in stock numbers. Secondly, theirremoteness led to a complete breakdown in social interaction. Lastly was its magnitude; thesnowiest winter and coldest February on record would stretch even the best preparatorymeasures. These were the main factors which contributed to the substantial consequences ofthe 1947 snow to the community of the upper Tywi valley.

The farmers of Cwm Tywi, like other upland farmers, did receive some monetarycompensation for the loss of their sheep. However, the aid given must have been insufficient,since it is difficult to assign a financial value to the farmers’ emotional state and, as it isargued that it was the utter devastation of 1947 which caused the eventual abandonment ofthe valley (Jones 2007). The emotional consequences of recent agricultural disasters,such as the foot and mouth epidemic in the UK, are much better understood and investigated(e.g. Bailey et al. 2003; Convery et al. 2005). Furthermore, it has been shown howprecarious the agricultural system is when disrupted, leading to large scale and catastrophicconsequences (Law 2006). When the opportunity arose to leave their Cwm Tywi homes, in theform of an offer by the Forestry Commission to buy the land, the first family left in 1947 and theremaining six families followed; the last in 1967. As such, the snow of 1947 triggered a seriesof events which changed the valley’s landscape and community forever. The heavy snowfallacross much of the UK during December 2009 to January 2010 provides some insights into thechallenges that comparable conditions would have in the present day. After being caught out bythe snow of February 2009, local authorities were prepared and kept large stocks of grit.However, the severity of this period was high, being the coldest winter since 1978–1979(Eden 2010a), and personal preparations were low. This resulted in severe consequences,causing major damage, serious social disruption and loss of human life (which is the definitionof a severe meteorological event; WMO, 2004). Indeed, there were reports of all three factorsduring the snowfall of 2009–10.

It is proposed that the perception of the rarity of extreme weather is related to anindividual’s memory. If the type of weather is very rare within a person’s lifetime, there isa perception of a low probability of it occurring. Strauss and Orlove (2003) discuss how ourcomplex lives influence the way that we are affected by weather and climate, creating bothforms of vulnerability and capacities to mitigate against extremes. We are able to recall thepast and anticipate the future (Strauss and Orlove 2003). It is this individual anticipationwhich is of key relevance, and is essentially a person’s perception of the probability of the

Climatic Change (2012) 113:35–53 49

weather’s occurrence. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) indicate higher temperaturesin Wales and therefore less frequent snowfall, as well as more frequency of extreme weather,such as summer droughts and winter flooding (UKCP 2009). It may be assumed from theprojections that both personal and community preparation and mitigation efforts will bereduced for snowy weather. Its rarity, under the definition of ‘extreme weather’, may be thevery factor which increases its future consequences. A reduction in the perceived frequencyof severe snowfall may result in a lower degree of weather severity being considered asextreme, leading to consequences of equal or greater severity when a snowfall of comparablemagnitude occurs.

As climate change exerts changes in meteorological conditions over time, new regionswill come under threat of extreme conditions (e.g. Beniston 2008), and other regions andweather classified as extreme may become more frequent and will subsequently requirere-classification as severe, or vice versa. After an initial period of transition, certain(currently perceived as extreme) forms of weather may become the seasonal expectation.

The proportion of the population of Wales, and other developed countries, solelydependent on agriculture has reduced, as mechanisation and the size of farms increasedfollowing the 1947 Agriculture Act (Murdoch 2006: 116). Many of the upland areas,following 1947, were fenced and many farms now try to house their stock in shedsduring the lambing season. However, the resilience of farm animals, the importance ofthe preceding harvest and, hence, the livelihoods of farmers remains fairly constant.Communities may even be more vulnerable, as there has been a decrease in the averageage of stock since the beginning of the twentieth century, through a reduction in thenumber of wethers (4 to 6 year old castrated rams) and an increase in the number ofewes and lambs which are, at times, more weather-sensitive (Taylor 1965).

This paper provides an insight into what could be perceived as a ‘vulnerable community’,as a result of its remoteness and high dependency on agriculture, during a meteorologicallychallenging period. Cwm Tywi provides an excellent example in order to observe theinternal processes which highlight the resilience or vulnerability of a sector of society. It isfair to say that the community of Cwm Tywi was relatively resilient and it was the severity ofthe snowfall and resultant emotional distress which were the dominant causal factors in theabandonment of the Cwm Tywi valley. However generalisation is not the aim, as auniversally-applicable picture of social vulnerability to climate is not to be expected(Pfister 2010). Each country, community and individual is different, and each extrememeteorological period is temporally sensitive. We call for further in-depth analysis of avariety of local communities and individuals situations which differ spatially, culturallyand historically for a range of extreme weather conditions and individual events over awide temporal scale. Only then will we begin to decipher the complexity which lies atthe heart of understanding vulnerability, adaptation and resilience.

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the following: the Welsh Medium Centre of HigherEducation for the funding of the main author’s PhD; Ian Gulley and Sandra Mather from the Geographydepartments at Aberystwyth University and the University of Liverpool for the production of the map; and,Professor Rhys A Jones (Aberystwyth University), Dr Cathryn Charnell-White (University of Wales Centre forAdvanced Welsh and Celtic Studies), Dr Georgina H Endfield and Dr Carol Morris (University of Nottingham)and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and changes. Thank-you also goes toAlexander Hall, University of Manchester, for information and references on the censorship of weatherforecasts in wartime newspapers. Finally, we wish to thank the archives visited (the National Library ofWales and its Screen and Sound Archive, Ceredigion Archives and the BBC archives at Cardiff) andarchivists for their help, and for the kindness of many individuals who welcomed us for interviews, andto read their personal collections of memoirs, diaries etc.

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