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Examples from the Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America
Cristina Fernandez-Martinez (University of Western Sydney)Cristina Fernandez-Martinez (University of Western Sydney)Tamara Weyman (University of Western Sydney)Tamara Weyman (University of Western Sydney)Sylvie Fol (Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne)Sylvie Fol (Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne)Ivonne Audirac (Florida State University)Ivonne Audirac (Florida State University)Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot (Université de Rennes 1)Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot (Université de Rennes 1)Elizabeth Deakin (University of California)Elizabeth Deakin (University of California)Thorsten Wiechmann (Dresden Technical University)Thorsten Wiechmann (Dresden Technical University)Hiroshi Yahagi (Osaka City University)Hiroshi Yahagi (Osaka City University)
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Discusses the forthcoming symposium in the Progress in Planning Journal
Three regions:Asia-Pacific – Australia and JapanEurope – Germany, France and UKNorth America- USA
Examine city population trajectories Analyse the policy responses in shrinking
cities Identify whether these policies differ by
the type of shrinkage and geographical area
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Examined 299 cities (LGAs with population above 10,000)
Population trajectories from 1960-2008
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Top ten shrinking cities policy responses were examined. Cities with: Continuous Shrinkage –
plan for economic/ population stabilisation
Stabilised shrinkage – plan for economic/ population growth
Shrinking – plan for growth, improvements in infrastructure, land use and aesthetics
Shrinking small cities are facing increasing pressure from an ageing population – Most cities are implementing both Ageing and Youth programs and strategies
Local Government
State City Type City Size
Recent Trajectory (%) 2003-2008)
Shrinkage since 1960-2008 (%)
Simplified Shrinking Category
Broken Hill NSW Resource-based
Small -3.00 -66.04 Shrinking (Continuous)
Adelaide SA Knowledge-intensive
Small 22.85 -49.03 Stabilised Shrinking (medium)
North Burnett QLD Lifestyle Small -0.31 -31.50 Shrinkage (Continuous)
Warrumbungle NSW Rural Small -3.57 -30.14 Shrinking (Continuous)
Yarra VIC Knowledge-intensive
Small 7.58 -23.99 Stabilised Shrinkage (Medium)
Southern Grampian
VIC Rural Small 2.14 -23.53 Stabilised Shrinkage (Recent)
Port Pirie City and Dist
SA Resource-based
Small 1.99 -19.22 Stabilised Shrinkage (Recent)
Woollahra NSW Knowledge-intensive
Small 0.91 -18.80 Stabilised Shrinkage (Medium)
Corangamite VIC Rural Small 0.36 -18.46 Shrinking (Medium)
Marrickville NSW Dispersed Metro
Small 0.85 -18.10 Shrinking (Long)
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Japanese Prefectures were examined from 1960-2005
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Local Government
Prefecture City Size
Recent Trajectory 2006-2007(% )
Shrinkage since 1990-2007(%)
Refined Shrinking Category
Otaru Hokkaido Middle -1.4 -15.3 Continuous Shrinkage
Omuta Fukuoka Middle -1.4 -14.5 ContinuousShrinkage
Hakodate Hokkaido Middle -1.1 -12.5 Medium-termShrinkage
Kure Hiroshima Middle -0.9 -12.4 Medium-termShrinkage
Kushiro Hokkaido Middle -1.0 -12.0 Medium-termShrinkage
Onomichi Hiroshima Middle -0.9 -11.8 Medium-termShrinkage
Kiryu Gunma Middle -1.0 -11.2 Medium-termShrinkage
Yokote Akita Middle -0.8 -11.1 Continuous Shrinkage
Ishinomaki Miyagi Middle -1.2 -10.3 Relapsing-remitting Shrinkage
Imabari Ehime Middle -0.8 -9.8 Medium-termShrinkage
Japan’s top ten shrinking cities’ policy responses was examined City master plans
revealed the following population presumptions: 6 - continued population
contraction 2 -stabilisation 2 - abandoned making
future plans with an ideal population target
Issues: City governments can
only raise 30% of the necessary funds for local needs
Ageing population
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Topics Similarities DifferencesJapan/Australia Japan Australia
Governance 3-tired system of governance
Urban policy making is highly centralised
State Government produces regional strategies and local government implements through Local Environmental Plans
Cities Projection trajectories
Prefectures experienced significant peaks and troughs from 1960-2005
Majority of cities have been growing, city shrinkage is occurring mostly in the small rural and resource-based cities/towns
City Issues Ageing Population
High dependence on
private transportTriggers Economic restructuring
Environmental Conditions - Drought Recessions
Fluctuating commodity prices
Policy response
Restricted by resources Population presumptions
Depends on local decision-makers acceptance of population decline
Aesthetical improvements Typology of shrinkage – policy response
Managing the ageing population
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Shrinking cities is a wide spread phenomena in Europe
Numerous cities have lost population in the past decades and this was interpreted as: Structurally weak areas:
Old industrialised rust-belts Peripheral rural areas and
small towns Effect of demographic trends:
Outmigration in Eastern Germany
Low birth rates Effect of hollowing out
processes of urban centres: Suburbanisation Urban sprawl
Source: Atlas of Shrinking Cities 2006 8
Germany cities’ population trajectories
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Köln
Bonn
Kiel
Bremen
Kassel
Berlin
Erfurt
Hamburg
München
LeipzigDresden
Rostock
Dortmund
Hannover
Mannheim Nürnberg
Chemnitz
Bielefeld
Karlsruhe
Stuttgart
Magdeburg
Frankfurt a.M.
Essen
Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
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Köln
Bonn
Kiel
Bremen
Kassel
Berlin
Erfurt
Hamburg
München
LeipzigDresden
Rostock
Dortmund
Hannover
Mannheim Nürnberg
Chemnitz
Bielefeld
Karlsruhe
Stuttgart
Magdeburg
Frankfurt a.M.
Essen
Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
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Köln
Bonn
Kiel
Bremen
Kassel
Berlin
Erfurt
Hamburg
München
LeipzigDresden
Rostock
Dortmund
Hannover
Mannheim Nürnberg
Chemnitz
Bielefeld
Karlsruhe
Stuttgart
Magdeburg
Frankfurt a.M.
Essen
Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
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Köln
Bonn
Kiel
Bremen
Kassel
Berlin
Erfurt
Hamburg
München
LeipzigDresden
Rostock
Dortmund
Hannover
Mannheim Nürnberg
Chemnitz
Bielefeld
Karlsruhe
Stuttgart
Magdeburg
Frankfurt a.M.
Essen
Düsseldorf
Saarbrücken
Source: Siedentop / Kausch 2003 9
Germany cities’ population trajectories
Source: Bertelsmann Foundation
Stable medium-sized towns
Growing suburban settlements
Suburbs with reduced growth
Shrinking and ageing municipalities
Stable rural communities
Rural communities with low dynamic
Prospering rural communities
Economically strong cities
Exclusive Locations
Municipalities 5.000 – 100.000 residents
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“Shrinkage” was systematically disregarded as a dominant development trend until the 1990ies
Policy makers and experts in the administration were unable to cope with the issue in a constructive way.
Since 2000 the situation in Germany has changed significantly
Today, urban shrinkage is one of the most discussed issues in urban politics.
Since 2002: State Programme ‘Stadtumbau Ost’
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Three types of Shrinking Cities: Old Industrial
Metropolitan Areas: 8 out of 52 urban
areas > 150,000 inhabitants
Small Towns: 102 urban areas out
of 310 Central Cities and first
ring suburbs within growing urban areas: Linked to urban
sprawl
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Shrinking Cities is not a topic in France (for academics and policy makers)
Since the 70s, the decline of industrial cities has been addressed through strong public policies (delocalisation of public services and industries, fiscal incentives…)
Regional policies are today mostly focused on rural decline
Shrinking small towns are ignored by national policies
Saint-Etienne, the largest shrinking city in France
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Two Types of Shrinking Cities:
Large Metropolitan areas: 35% of the
country’s population
Large Cities: 6% of the country’s
population
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The Shrinking Cities topic has not yet reached interest at the national level
The debate about urban decline is local and so are policy responses
Urban regeneration strategies are targeted toward inner cities and brown-field redevelopment
Valorisation of city image, cultural flagships, public-private partnerships and gentrification are favoured
Socio-spatial divide is reinforced
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France and UK are (still) countries with relatively high birth rates and continuing population growth: there is no pressing debate about shrinking cities
The decline of industrial cities is not a recent phenomenon and it is not the focus of attention of urban and regional policies
In France, most shrinking cities are small towns with little access to media and political attention.
In Germany (and many other countries in Europe) the situation is different: very different types of cities face a decreasing population due to low fertility rates and / or outmigration.
Urban restructuring of shrinking cities is one of the most discussed issues in urban development policies – both at the state level and the local level
Hugh public investments are made to deal with housing vacancies and to adapt the public infrastructure to a decreasing population
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U.S. Industrial Shrinking (Central) Cities 1990-2000
Source: Vey (2007) Restoring Prosperity, Brookings Institute
3%
8%
15%
28%
49%
16,350,102, N = 65
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City & suburb population growth 1970 – 2000
On average, suburbs grew 18% points more than cites per decade.
Metro areas on left side of the chart, experienced population decline.
Metro-wide forces—more than suburban forces—influenced the growth of cities & suburbs.
Cities and their suburbs grew & declined together (e.g., Austin and Phoenix had city and suburban growth rates well above average; Pittsburgh and Buffalo had city and suburban growth rates well below average.
“This shared fortune of cities and suburbs held continuously throughout the 20th century.”
Source: Jason Rappaport (2005) The Shared Fortunes of Cities and Suburbs – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Economic Review, Third Quarter.
Shrinking cities & suburbs
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Shrinking city policy responses
State policy: shift from managing decline to stimulating revival of industrial shrinking cities by: Seizing the recent U.S. demographic shift from suburbs to cities:
Graying of population, growth of one-person households and of preference for urban living.
Leveraging unique features and resources into competitive advantage: Waterfronts, walkable downtowns, public transit, historic architecture Dense employment centers, universities and medical and research institutions Proximity to economically strong metropolitan areas.
Leveraging rich social and cultural amenities: Public art, theatre, sports and museums Regional and historical identity Sense of pride and place.
Investment in: Crime reduction and education improvement via vocational training in new-economy
skills New-economy industries (education, medical, high-tech, culture and entertainment,
green utilities) that capitalize on the city’s and metropolitan strengths and connect them to the global economy
Upgrading crumbling infrastructure. 19
Shrinking city policy responses (cont.)
New laws and policies: Supporting the banking, management and marketability of vacant properties Supporting brownfield cleaning and redevelopment Flexible state housing subsidies that help de-concentrate poor neighbourhoods
from central cities State appropriations to help localities leverage the market potential of under-
served urban neighbourhoods
Local and metropolitan policy: Seizing the shift to a green economy Developing land banking of vacant and derelict properties Downsizing city footprint and converting vacant land to
green open space Developing urban agriculture and green infrastructure Siting solar energy generation facilities
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Shrinking Cities occur in all areas, though to a different extent and with a different impact
Policy responses to urban shrinkage are: Strongly influenced by national, regional and
local contexts Depend on the way in which local and global
factors interact in different cities Related to national and local modes of regulation
A typology for policies/strategies for shrinking cities would be a valuable and necessary in guiding further empirical research
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Asia-Pacific contacts:Asia-Pacific contacts: Cristina Fernandez-Martinez* ([email protected])Cristina Fernandez-Martinez* ([email protected]) Tamara Weyman* ([email protected])Tamara Weyman* ([email protected]) Hiroshi Yahagi ([email protected])Hiroshi Yahagi ([email protected])
European contacts:European contacts: Sylvie Fol (sfol@univ_paris1.fr)Sylvie Fol (sfol@univ_paris1.fr) Emmanuèle Cunningham-Sabot ([email protected])Cunningham-Sabot ([email protected]) Thorsten Wiechmann ([email protected])Thorsten Wiechmann ([email protected])
North America contacts:North America contacts: Ivonne Audirac ([email protected])Ivonne Audirac ([email protected]) Elizabeth Deakin ([email protected])Elizabeth Deakin ([email protected])
* Correspondence authors
The paper is being prepared with the support of the Australian Research Council through an ARCD grant to the authors
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