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Exchange Trading RulesExchange Trading Rules
Douglas CummingDouglas CummingSchulich School of BusinessSchulich School of Business
York University, Toronto, CanadaYork University, Toronto, Canada
Sofia JohanSofia JohanTilburg Law and Economics Center (TILEC)Tilburg Law and Economics Center (TILEC)
Tilburg University, The NetherlandsTilburg University, The Netherlands
Research QuestionResearch Question
Vague versus detailed rulesVague versus detailed rules
Context: equity stock exchangesContext: equity stock exchanges
Do detailed trading rules facilitate Do detailed trading rules facilitate trading?trading?• Enhance investor confidence that the Enhance investor confidence that the
risk of manipulation has been mitigatedrisk of manipulation has been mitigated
Prior WorkPrior Work Aitken and Siow (2003 Hewlett-Packard Handbook Aitken and Siow (2003 Hewlett-Packard Handbook
of World Stock, Derivative & Commodity Exchanges)of World Stock, Derivative & Commodity Exchanges)• Rank markets based on efficient and integrityRank markets based on efficient and integrity
La Porta et al. (2006 Journal of Finance)La Porta et al. (2006 Journal of Finance)• Public enforcement of securities laws does little to help the Public enforcement of securities laws does little to help the
development of stock marketsdevelopment of stock markets• Private enforcement and disclosure rules help stock Private enforcement and disclosure rules help stock
marketsmarkets
Cumming and Johan (2008 American Law and Cumming and Johan (2008 American Law and Economics Review)Economics Review)• First look at international differences in surveillanceFirst look at international differences in surveillance• Cross-market surveillance and information sharing helps Cross-market surveillance and information sharing helps
development of stock marketsdevelopment of stock markets
New ContributionsNew Contributions
First look at exchange trading rules across First look at exchange trading rules across countries and timecountries and time
Relate trading rules to trading velocityRelate trading rules to trading velocity Trading RulesTrading Rules
• Insider tradingInsider trading• Market ManipulationMarket Manipulation
Price ManipulationPrice Manipulation Volume ManipulationVolume Manipulation SpoofingSpoofing False Dissemination False Dissemination
• Broker agency conductBroker agency conduct
What Are Business Trading Rules?What Are Business Trading Rules?
Found on the stock exchange webpageFound on the stock exchange webpage
Like a contract between all stock Like a contract between all stock exchange trading participantsexchange trading participants
Some exchanges have vague rulesSome exchanges have vague rules(“thou shalt not manipulate the market”)(“thou shalt not manipulate the market”)
Other exchanges precisely set out exactly Other exchanges precisely set out exactly what they mean by manipulation in the what they mean by manipulation in the rules…rules…
Insider Trading RulesInsider Trading Rules
FrontrunningFrontrunning Client PrecedenceClient Precedence Trading Ahead of Research ReportsTrading Ahead of Research Reports Separations of Research and TradingSeparations of Research and Trading Broker Ownership LimitBroker Ownership Limit Restrictions on AffiliationRestrictions on Affiliation Restrictions on CommunicationsRestrictions on Communications Investment Company SecuritiesInvestment Company Securities Influencing or Rewarding Employees of OthersInfluencing or Rewarding Employees of Others Anti-Intimidation/ CoordinationAnti-Intimidation/ Coordination
Market Manipulation RulesMarket Manipulation Rules
Price ManipulationPrice Manipulation
Volume ManipulationVolume Manipulation
SpoofingSpoofing
False DisseminationFalse Dissemination
Price ManipulationPrice Manipulation
Marking the OpenMarking the Open Marking the CloseMarking the Close Misleading End of Month/Quarter/Year Misleading End of Month/Quarter/Year
TradesTrades Intraday Ramping/ GougingIntraday Ramping/ Gouging Market SettingMarket Setting Pre-Arranged TradesPre-Arranged Trades Domination and ControlDomination and Control
Volume ManipulationVolume Manipulation
ChurningChurning
Wash TradesWash Trades
SpoofingSpoofing
Giving up PriorityGiving up Priority
SwitchSwitch
Layering of Bids/AsksLayering of Bids/Asks
False DisseminationFalse Dissemination
Dissemination of False and Dissemination of False and Misleading InformationMisleading Information
Parking or WarehousingParking or Warehousing
Broker Agency ConductBroker Agency Conduct
Trade ThroughTrade Through Improper ExecutionImproper Execution Restrictions on Member Use of Restrictions on Member Use of
Exchange NameExchange Name Restrictions on Sales Materials and Restrictions on Sales Materials and
TelemarketingTelemarketing Fair Dealing with CustomersFair Dealing with Customers
New Indices in this PaperNew Indices in this PaperAcross Countries and TimeAcross Countries and Time
Insider TradingInsider Trading
Market ManipulationMarket Manipulation• Price ManipulationPrice Manipulation• Volume ManipulationVolume Manipulation• SpoofingSpoofing• False DisseminationFalse Dissemination
Broker Agency ConflictBroker Agency Conflict
Trading VelocityTrading Velocity Accounts for market size… makes different Accounts for market size… makes different
exchanges comparableexchanges comparable
tionCapitalizaMarket Domestic end-Month
Turnover Share Domestic Monthly
Table 3. Descriptive Statistics
This table presents descriptive statistics for the full sample of country-month observations in the data. The data span the months February 2006 - October 2008, and the exchanges listed in Table 2.
Mean MedianStandard Deviation Minimum Maximum
Number of Observations
Velocity 0.951 0.709 0.751 0.034 4.093 1363
Insider Trading Index 2.202 2 2.096 0 10 1363
Market Manipulation Index 5.266 4 4.036 0 13 1363
Price Manipulation Index 2.627 2 2.268 0 7 1363
Volume Manipulation Index 0.691 1 0.710 0 2 1363
Spoofing Index 1.242 1 1.019 0 3 1363
False Disclosure Index 0.707 1 0.583 0 2 1363
Broker Agency Index 0.836 0 1.240 0 5 1363
Investor Protection Index 2.344 2.337 0.826 0.686 3.775 1363
Log (1+MSCI) -0.001 0.009 0.057 -0.371 0.138 1363
Log (GDP) 9.500 10.164 1.332 6.565 11.304 1363
Comparison TestsComparison Tests
Difference in means and mediansDifference in means and medians
Panel A: All countriesPanel A: All countries
Panel B: Subset of Mifid CountriesPanel B: Subset of Mifid Countries
Panel C: Pre- versus Post-MifidPanel C: Pre- versus Post-Mifid
Panel A. All Countries
Insider Trading Index Market Manipulation Index Broker Agency IndexInvestor Protection
Index
>1 <=1 >5 <=5 >0 =0 >2 <=2
Number of Observations
883 480 537 826 526 837 891 472
Mean 1.07 0.74 1.17 0.81 0.92 0.97 0.99 0.88
Standard Deviation
0.84 0.49 0.75 0.72 0.82 0.70 0.81 0.61
Median 0.81 0.60 0.93 0.53 0.68 0.74 0.78 0.63
Difference in Means
8.963*** 8.986*** -1.087 2.946***
Difference in Medians
p <= 0.000*** p <= 0.000*** p <= 0.171 p <= 0.000***
Panel B. Subset of MiFID Countries
Insider Trading IndexMarket Manipulation
Index Broker Agency IndexInvestor Protection
Index
>1 <=1 >5 <=5 >0 =0 >2 <=2
Number of Observations 312 84 207 189 87 309 198 198
Mean 1.227 1.026 1.186 1.183 1.366 1.133 1.341 1.028
Standard Deviation 0.562 0.505 0.596 0.510 0.316 0.597 0.333 0.678
Median 1.365 0.957 1.357 1.206 1.352 1.292 1.383 0.717
Difference in Means 3.158*** 0.062 4.835*** 5.826***
Difference in Medians p <= 0.000*** p <= 0.028 ** p <= 0.067* p <= 0.000***
Panel C. Pre-MiFID versus Post-MiFID
Non-MiFID Countries MiFID Countries
Post-MiFID Pre-MiFID Post-MiFID Pre-MiFID
Number of Observations 358 609 144 252
Mean 0.895 0.832 1.267 1.137
Standard Deviation 0.841 0.772 0.581 0.537
Median 0.679 0.563 1.373 1.276
Difference in Means 1.167 2.200***
Difference in Medians p <= 0.019*** p <= 0.025**
OLS RegressionsOLS Regressions
Trading Velocity is a function ofTrading Velocity is a function of• Insider Trading IndexInsider Trading Index• Market Manipulation IndexMarket Manipulation Index• Broker Conflict IndexBroker Conflict Index• LLSV (1998, 2006) IndicesLLSV (1998, 2006) Indices• GDP per capita (annual lagged)GDP per capita (annual lagged)• MSCI Index (monthly lagged)MSCI Index (monthly lagged)
RobustnessRobustness• Country dummy variables & fixed effectsCountry dummy variables & fixed effects• Difference-in-differencesDifference-in-differences• Endogeneity considered laterEndogeneity considered later
Table 6
Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4) Model (5)
Coefficient
t-statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoefficie
ntt-
statisticCoefficie
ntt-statistic
Constant -1.588 -1.850* 0.05423.938
***1.763
2.026**
1.836 2.150**
Country Dummy Variables
Yes Yes Yes No Yes
Country Fixed Effects
No No No Yes No
AR(1) Model Yes No Yes Yes Yes
After*Treat 0.052 4.018*** 0.1213.038*
**
Treat 3.45517.620**
*0.908
8.867***
Insider Trading Index
0.0374.005*
**0.017 1.866*
Market Manipulation
Index 0.005 3.356***
Log (1+MSCI) -0.080-
4.464***-0.159 -1.244 -0.081
-4.526*
**-0.025 -1.352 -0.083
-4.624***
Number of Observations
1363 1363 1363 1363 1363
Adjusted R2 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.88
Model (6) Model (7) Model (8) Model (9) Model (10)
Table 6Coeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoefficie
ntt-
statisticCoefficie
ntt-statistic
Constant 1.8472.174*
*1.858
2.203**
1.8522.155*
*1.824 1.995** 1.958 2.058**
Country Dummy Variables
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country Fixed Effects
No No No No No
AR(1) Model Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Price Index 0.0083.490*
**
Volume Index 0.0362.059*
*
Spoofing Index 0.0213.073*
**
False Disclosure Index
0.0522.811**
*
Broker Agency Index -0.019 -0.413
Log (1+MSCI) -0.083-
4.585***
-0.087-
4.855***
-0.084-
4.683***
-0.084-
4.663***
-0.088-
4.862***
Number of Observations
1363 1363 1363 1363 1363
Adjusted R2 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88
Model (11) Model (12) Model (13) Model (14) Model (15)
Table 6Coeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoefficie
ntt-
statisticCoefficie
nt t-statistic
Constant -1.904
-9.738**
* -1.850
-9.298**
* -1.975
-9.532**
* -1.944 -9.337*** -1.987-
10.299***Country Dummy
Variables No No No No NoCountry Fixed
Effects No No No No No
AR(1) Model Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Insider Trading Index 0.17719.856*
** 0.17217.589*
** 0.14310.468*
** 0.14410.582**
* 0.169 18.392***
Market Manipulation Index 0.005 1.330 0.008 2.115** 0.007 1.889*
Broker Agency Index 0.0652.949**
* 0.035 1.455
Investor Protection Index 0.072 2.977*** 0.183 7.720***
Efficiency of the Judiciary -0.099 -9.536***
Log (1+MSCI) -0.040 -0.733 -0.029 -0.522 -0.032 -0.594 -0.039 -0.724 -0.047 -0.907
Log (GDP) 0.26120.362*
** 0.25418.265*
** 0.26618.404*
** 0.24815.816**
* 0.306 21.492***Number of
Observations 1363 1363 1363 1363 1363
Adjusted R2 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.32
IV EstimatesIV Estimates
Rules Rules Velocity Velocity
Velocity Velocity Rules Rules
Use instruments very similar to that Use instruments very similar to that in La Porta et al. (2006):in La Porta et al. (2006):• English Legal OriginEnglish Legal Origin• RepudiationRepudiation• Efficiency of the JudiciaryEfficiency of the Judiciary
First Stage IV Estimates Second Stage IV Estimates
Table 7(16) Market
Manipulation Index
(17) Insider Trading Index
(18) Investor Protection Index
(19) Velocity (20) Velocity
Coeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
ent
t-statisti
c
Coefficient
t-statistic
Constant -12.871-
3.977***
-0.682 -0.350 1.5102.207*
*0.536 1.817* 2.276 1.667*
Log GDP per Capita 1.011 1.371 0.012 0.041 -0.021 -0.221
English Legal Origin 0.581 0.546 0.610 0.924 0.9863.993*
**
Repudiation Index 1.3952.617**
*0.040 0.177 -0.013 -0.140
Efficiency of the Judiciary
-0.173 -0.553 0.319 1.850* 0.095 1.149 -0.094-
1.874*-0.079 -1.522
Market Manipulation Index (fitted values for
Models 19-22)0.167
6.147***
0.2463.210**
*
Log (1+MSCI) 3.522 0.430 -1.274 -0.160
Log (GDP) -0.236 -1.311
Number of Observations
42 42 42 42 42
Adjusted R2 0.45 0.08 0.41 0.41 0.31
Second Stage IV Estimates OLS Estimates without Instruments
Model (21) Model (22) Model (23) Model (24) Model (25)Coeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statisticCoeffici
entt-
statistic
Constant 2.198 1.749* 2.599 1.797* -1.156 -1.734* -1.572-
1.968**
-1.234 -1.794*
Efficiency of the Judiciary
0.062 0.374 -0.032 -0.487 -0.064 -1.312 -0.119-
2.405**
-0.086 -1.770*
Insider Trading Index (fitted values for Models 19-22)
-0.351 -0.843 0.143 1.865*
Market Manipulation Index (fitted values for Models 19-22)
0.2593.304**
*0.247 3.373** 0.047 1.715* 0.014 0.438 0.050 1.812*
Investor Protection Index (fitted values for Models 19-22)
-0.210 -0.843 0.098 0.608
Log (1+MSCI) 0.111 0.013 0.111 0.013 8.322 0.867 8.377 0.935 7.097 0.663
Log (GDP) -0.265 -1.425 -0.262 -1.421 0.224 2.402** 0.2982.713*
**0.227 2.420**
Number of Observations
42 42 42 42 42
Adjusted R2 0.31 0.39 0.18 0.27 0.17
Summary of Key ResultSummary of Key Result Exchange trading rules a very statistically significant and robust Exchange trading rules a very statistically significant and robust
factorfactor
Insider Trading Rules greatest economic significance:Insider Trading Rules greatest economic significance:• Each rule increases velocity by at least 3% depending on the specificationEach rule increases velocity by at least 3% depending on the specification
Market Manipulation Rules also economically significantMarket Manipulation Rules also economically significant• Each rule increases velocity by at least 1% depending on the specificationEach rule increases velocity by at least 1% depending on the specification
Economic significance is even greater with the IV estimates.Economic significance is even greater with the IV estimates.
Example: Example: • Euronext Paris (138.57%) versus Hong Kong (95.32%)Euronext Paris (138.57%) versus Hong Kong (95.32%)• Actual difference: 43.25%Actual difference: 43.25%• Predicted difference for Insider Trading Rules (simple Predicted difference for Insider Trading Rules (simple
regression): 31.2%regression): 31.2%• Predicted difference for Market Manipulation Rules (simple Predicted difference for Market Manipulation Rules (simple
regression): 45.18%regression): 45.18%
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Figure 1. Partial Regression Plot of Velocity and Insider Trading Rules Index
NASDAQ
Malaysia
NYSE
Jordan
Residual Insider Trading Rules Index
Resi
dual
Vel
ocity
Spain
Sri Lanka
OMXIndonesia
Argentina
Italy
Korea
GreeceMexico
Oslo
Germany
Slovenia
Thailand
India NSE
Switzerland
Shanghai
Shenzhen
NewZealand
LondonParis
Brazil
Bermuda
Bombay
Turkey
Ireland
AustriaToronto
PhilippinesAustralia
Singapore
Egypt
PeruColumbia
Taiwan
Israel
Tokyo
Chile
Hong Kong
Figure 1. Partial Regression Plot of Velocity and Insider Trading Rules Index. This figure presents a partial regression plot of velocity and the Insider Trading Rules Index. The independent variables include the investor protection index (La Porta et al., 2006), the Efficiency of the Judiciary (La Porta et al., 1998), the log of MSCI and the log of GDP per capita. The coefficient is equal to 0.152, (robust) t-statistic 2.437 and adjusted R2 is 0.157.
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Figure 2. Partial Regression Plot of Velocity and Market Manipulation Trading Rules Index
Resi
dual
Vel
ocity
Residual Market Manipulation Rules Index
IndiaNSE
Slovenia
NYSE
London
Spain
Thailand
Paris
Toronto
Italy
Ireland
Greece
NASDAQ
Bombay
Austria
Switzerland
Sri Lanka
OMX
Germany
Korea
Indonesia
Mexico
Egypt
Oslo
Argentina
Columbia
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Jordon
PhilippinesHongKong
Singapore
Peru
Brazil
MalaysiaAustralia
Bermuda
New ZealandChile
Turkey
Tokyo
Taiwan
Israel
Figure 2. Partial Regression Plot of Velocity and Market Manipulation Trading Rules Index. This figure presents a partial regression plot of velocity and the Market Manipulation Trading Rules Index. The independent variables include the investor protection Index (La Porta et al., 2006), the Efficiency of the Judiciary (La Porta et al., 1998), the log of MSCI and the log of GDP per capita. The coefficient is equal to 0.050, (robust) t-statistic 1.812 and adjusted R2 is 0.039.
ConclusionsConclusions Insider Trading and Market Manipulation Rules Insider Trading and Market Manipulation Rules
are an important element to encouraging are an important element to encouraging investors to trade on stock exchangesinvestors to trade on stock exchanges
Detailed rules facilitate tradingDetailed rules facilitate trading Vague rules in countries with high risk of Vague rules in countries with high risk of
repudiationrepudiation Not easy to change business rules, but possibleNot easy to change business rules, but possible
Mifid rules are an important benefit to trading on Mifid rules are an important benefit to trading on European ExchangesEuropean Exchanges