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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List (Exclusive vs.) Inclusive Growth Broad Overview Eduardo Ley September 2011
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Page 1: (Exclusive vs.) Inclusive Growth - World Banksiteresources.worldbank.org/.../468980-1316457581843/IGC2011_Ley.… · (Exclusive vs.) Inclusive Growth Broad Overview Eduardo Ley Color

Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

(Exclusive vs.) Inclusive GrowthBroad Overview

Eduardo Ley

Color and Size of Logo

1. The World Bank logo should be printed in black and whitewhenever possible. For two-color designs, the logo shouldprint in the darker, stronger color available.

2. Although the size of the logo can change, the allocation ofblack and white elements must stay constant:

POSITIVE REVERSE

• black globe grid • white globe grid• round white background • round black background

behind globe behind globe• square black outer box • square white outer box

3. The minimum size for the logo is 2 picas or 1/3 inch (seediagram A), except when used as a final dingbat in WBbrochures or articles for internal use.

Wording

1. The words “THE WORLD BANK” can be placed either tothe right of the logo (centered vertically along the height ofthe logo after 1 em space; see diagram B), or under the logo (the space between the logo and the words “THE WORLDBANK” should be the same as the cap height of the words,aligned flush left; see diagram C). When the logo is placedon a dark or black background, the logo should reverse towhite (see diagram D).

2. The words “THE WORLD BANK” should be set in ALLCAPS, Univers Bold. The size of the type in relation to thelogo should remain constant. Always use the art provided inan electronic file or in CRC.

Placement of Logo

All World Bank books must display the World Bank logo onthe front and back covers, the spine, and the title page.

Front cover

On the front cover, the logo should be placed at either thelower or upper left corner and should be accompanied by thewords “THE WORLD BANK.” Placement of the World Banklogo block on the front cover should be as follows: the outsideedge of the logo (the outer box) should be between 2.25 picas(3/8 inch) and 3.75 picas (5/8 inch) from the trim. The logoshould be placed equidistant from both trim and spine. Seesamples on next page.

The World Bank logo is the only logo to appear on front coversand spines of publications published by EXTOP. Any exceptionto this guideline needs to be approved by the publisher.Additional logos (for cosponsors or copublishers) appear at thebottom of the back cover, along with the World Bank logo.

The World Bank logo asit should appear on awhite background

The World Bank logo asit should appear onblack backgrounds andon two-color designswhen the second coloris dark but not black.

Diagram B

Diagram C

Diagram A, minimum size

Diagram D

The World Bank logo is the official corporate symbol of theWorld Bank and a powerful tool for the public presentation ofthe World Bank’s visual identity. The guidelines for its useaddress placement, proportion, color, and typography. They are intended to ensure that the logo is used consistently andeffectively in all World Bank publications and communications.

Guidelines for the World Bank Logo

September 2011

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Average GDP per capita Growth 1960–92FLS Dataset (72 countries, 41 drivers) — A First Look at the Data

Histogram of growth

Long−Term Per−Capita Growth

Den

sity

−2 0 2 4 6

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Min: −2% • Q1: 0.9% •Median = 2 = Mean • Q3: 3% •Max: 6.6%(0.979)32 = 51%⇒ [× 1

2 ], (1.02)32 = 188%⇒ [×2], (1.066)32 = 773%⇒ [×8]

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

15-Year Average GDP Growth (1990–2005)IMF/WEO—173 countries

−5 0 5 10

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

GDP growth (1990−2005)

(Geometric) Average Growth (173 countries, 15 years)

Den

sity

● ●● ● ●

−5 0 5 10

Min: −6% • Q1: 2.2% •Median = Mean: 3.5% • Q3: 4.7% •Max: 10%(0.98)15 = 70%, (1.035)15 = 168%, (1.05)15 = 207%, (1.07)15 = 276%, (1.1)15 = 418%

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Sub-Saharan Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 06 08 10 12-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2004 06 08 10 12-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20 Contributions to Output Growth(percent)

Output Growth(percent)

Private consumptionPublic consumptionInvestmentNet exportsDiscrepancy

GDP growth

2

Recovery is well under way, with growth in many economies back to the highs of the early 2000s. Strong domestic demand, closing output gaps, and rising inflation call for normalization of the fiscal stance. Building policy room is key to containing risks emanating from a further deterioration in the global outlook.

Figure 2.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Strength1

Compound annual rate of change, 2004–08

Proj

ecte

d gr

owth

, 201

1

Oilexporters

Low-incomecountries

(LICs)

Middle-incomecountries (MICs)

2004 06 08 10 12-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

SSA

LICs

Oil exporters

MICs

Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff estimates. Aggregates for the external economy are sums of individual country data. Aggregates for all others are computed on the basis of purchasing-power-parity weights. Excludes Liberia and Zimbabwe due to data limitations. Due to data limitations, the following countries are excluded: Chad, Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea from oil exporters; Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Malawi, São Tomé and Príncipe, Togo, Zambia, and Zimbabwe from LICs.

1

2

LICs

MICs

Oil exporters

SSA

2004 06 08 10 12-10-8-6-4-202468

10

RemittancesPublic aidPrivate direct investmentPrivate portfolio flows

Current Account(percent of regional GDP)

Net Financial Flows(billions of U.S. dollars)

LICsMICs

Oil exportersSSA

2007 09 11

3

Fiscal Net Lending/Borrowing(percent of GDP)

Inflation(year-over-year percent change)

3 Covered in a different map

Below –2Between –2 and 0Between 0 and 2Above 2

Insufficient data

Figure 2.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Growth versus Precrisis Average(Percentage point difference in compound annual rates of change between 2011–12 and 2000–07)

Source: IMF staff estimates.Note: Due to data limitations, data for Liberia and Zimbabwe are the growth differentials between the average in 2011–12 and 2001–07.

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Household Income DistributionStatic Snapshot

% share of household incomeKenya (2000–09)

lowest 40% −→ 13%highest 20% −→ 50%

US (1967)lowest 40% −→ 15%highest 20% −→ 44%

US (2001)lowest 40% −→ 12%highest 20% −→ 50%

SAZ (2008)lowest 40% −→ 5%highest 20% −→ 75%highest 10% −→ 50%

Static snapshot—what about mobility?

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

South Africa—three snapshotsTop 30% of households accrue 75% of income!

Cumulative shares of incomeDecile 1993 2000 2008

1 0.3 0.4 0.42 1.3 1.5 1.43 3.0 3.1 2.94 5.2 5.2 5.05 8.3 8.2 7.86 12.7 12.1 11.47 18.8 17.7 16.88 28.4 26.5 25.49 46.1 43.3 42.0

10 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: OECD SEM WP 101

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Hunting the Rich

Percent of TaxesPaid by top 10%France 28%Germany 31%UK 39%Italy 42%US 45%

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

What does ‘inclusive’ mean?

IG entails responsible and sustainable creation as well asjust distribution of both wealth and welfare.Extending access to (especially employment) opportunitiesmore widely.Two mutually reinforcing strategic pillars:

Sustainable and sustained growth to unleash economicopportunities.The diffusion of opportunities, by way of investment ineducation, health and infrastructure.

Issues: Time frame, static vs dynamic (mobility),income-support vs wealth-building agendas

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Investing in a Green and Inclusive EconomyUnited Nations Environment Management Group

“Although social inclusiveness is one of the keycharacteristics of a green economy, the term ‘greeneconomy’ may often be interpreted as referring only toenvironmental sustainability, which does not necessarily orautomatically lead to more inclusiveness. In this report,therefore, the term ‘a green and inclusive economy’ (GIE)is adopted.”“At the operational level, a GIE is where the growth ofincome and productive employment, and access to basicservices as well as the reduction of poverty, inequity andrisk exposure is promoted by targeted investments thatwill bring social and environmental benefits to all in anintegrated manner.”

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Shared GrowthFramework

∆Capital +3 ∆Output = ∆(PQ)

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∆Labor Productivity

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Is there a trade-off between growth and equity?E Duflo (2011) “Balancing growth with equity: The view from Development”

A recurring issue in development circles is whether countriesshould focus their development strategies on growth or onpoverty reduction strategies.

Sources for a trade-off between growth and equity1 possible influence of growth on the distribution of wealth2 possible influence of the distribution of wealth on growth

(presumably through an investment channel)3 some policies that favor growth could have an increase in

inequality as a direct by-product; or that policies that favorequity could have a decrease in growth as a directby-product

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

The role of policy in Kakotopiadysfunctional society, far away from perfect markets

Fact: markets function poorly in poor countriesThe scope for inequality to affect growth, and for growth toaffect inequality, widens in Kakotopia.When growth catches on, it is more likely to benefit abroad segment of society, and more likely to be politicallysustained in the long run if the poor are not shut out of theprocess by poor health and education, lack of access tocredit and savings, and other consequences of combinedinequality and imperfect markets.Policies that correct the most salient shortcomings in theefficiency of factor markets, and in particular thedifferences in access (to credit, savings instruments,insurance, etc.) among rich and poor, can in principleenhance both equity and efficiency

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Key Markets that may be less than perfect

1 Market for Credit2 Market for Savings3 Market for Insurance4 Market for Land5 Market for Human Capital

Empirical evidence on effects and direction of effects is mixed.

Which policies may balance growth with equity?

Policies that ensure that the poor would benefit from anincrease in growth, whatever its source.

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Financial ServicesSavings, Credit and Insurance

Administered social lending: widespread defaultMicrofinance

Does help people live a bit better but not a ticket out ofpovertyAverage profit of business of the poor: quite lowSMEs? Maybe (Korean industrial policy).

Insurance—subsidies for weather and catastrophic healthinsurance?

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Human Capital

A reform of the education system thus seems like it would be atop priority for a country focused on growth and equity.

The children of the poor go to bad schools, which teachthem very little for few years before they drop out; thechildren of the rich all attend private schoolsreproduces the existing social structure, teaches very littleto the poor, and does not do a good job of identifying thosewho are talentedas far as primary education is concerned, there is nowconsiderable evidence on how to improve the quality ofprimary education—teachers are sensitive to incentivesMuch less is known about how to deliver qualitysecondary education at an affordable cost, and what typeof benefits this would bring to individuals or the country

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Mining and Sustainability — ZMB 2009Extractive Industries and Foreign Entities in African Economies

Percent of GDPDividend Outflows 16.0Donor Grants 3.7Mining Tax Revenue (incl. royalties) 1.4NR depletion 20.0

... but GDP is growing — All is Well

... add to Resource-Curse Sin List: GDP Complacency

⇒ GDP accounting leads to poor decision-making

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Health and IncomeUnder-performers in HD indicators are Resource-Rich Countries

100 50 000500 1 000 5 000 10 000 30 00020 0003 0002 000

300

5

10

50

100

200

70

30

20

7

3

4

200 300

Population (millions)

1 000

100

10

<1

1

2006 data for countries & territories from UN Statistics Division, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and others sources as stated in:"Gapminder documentation 2007:1" at: www.gapminder.org/publications.

Free to copy for non-commercial useE-mail: [email protected]

www.gapminder.org

Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab states

Europe & Central Asia

Americas

Asia & Pacific

BY: $

Gapm

inder World Chart 2006 - Ver. January 2008

Gapminder World Chart 2006

RichPoor

Sick

Healthy

Antigua & Barbuda

Dominica

Faeroe Is.

Greenland

Kiribati

Marshall Is.

Monaco

N.Mariana Is.

Palau

San Marino

Seychelles

St. Kitts & Nevis

Tonga

American Samoa

Anguilla

Montserrat

Turks & Caicos Island

Tuvalu

Nauru

Andorra

Bermuda

Cayman Is.

Isle of Man

Liechtenstein

British VirginIslands

Jersey

Aruba

Bahamas

Bahrain

Barbados

Belize

Bhutan

Brunei

Cape Verde

Comoros

Cyprus

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Fiji

Fr. Polynesia

Grenada

Guam

Guyana

Iceland

Luxembourg

Macao

Maldives

Malta

Mayotte

Micronesia

Netherlands Ant.

New Caledonia

Qatar

Sao Tome & Principe

Solomon Islands

St. Lucia

St. Vincent & Grenadines

Suriname

Vanuatu

Virgin Islands(U.S.)

Samoa

Sierra Leone

Albania

Armenia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Benin

Bolivia

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Botswana

Bulgaria

Burundi

Central African Rep.

Congo, Rep. (Brazzaville)

Costa Rica

Croatia

Denmark

Dominican Rep.

El Salvador

Eritrea

Estonia

Finland

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Guinea

Guinea Bissau

Haiti

Honduras

Hong Kong

IrelandIsrael

Jamaica

Jordan

Kuwait

Kyrgyz Rep.

Laos

Latvia

Lebanon

Lesotho

Liberia

Libya

LithuaniaMacedonia

Mauritania

Mauritius

Moldova

Mongolia

Namibia

New Zealand

Nicaragua

NorwayOman

Panama

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Puerto Rico

Rwanda

Singapore

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Somalia

Swaziland

Sweden

Switzerland

Tajikistan

Timor LesteTogo

Trinidad &Tobago

Turkmenistan

United Arab Emirates

Uruguay

West Bank& Gaza

Serbia &Montenegro

Afghanistan Angola

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Cameroon

Chad

Colombia

Côte d'Ivoire

Ecuador

Ghana

Guatemala

Iraq

Kenya

North Korea

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Nepal

Niger

Peru

Senegal

Sri Lanka

Syria

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Algeria

Argentina

ChileCuba

CzechRepublic

Hungary

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Saudi Arabia

South Africa

Venezuela

Taiwan

AustraliaBelgium Canada

Greece

Italy

South Korea

Netherland

Spain

Congo DR(Kinshasa)

Egypt

Ethiopia

France

Germany

Iran

Philippines

Thailand

Turkey

UK

Vietnam

Brazil

Bangladesh

Indonesia

Japan

Mexico

Nigeria

Pakistan

Russia

USA

China

India

Money Gross National Income per capita - in US dollar by exchange rate (log)

He

alth

Chi

ldre

n d

ying

be

fore

ag

e 5

pe

r 100

0 liv

e b

irths

(lo

g)

Low income countries Middle income countries High income countries

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

Growth of What?Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress

Mismeasuring our Lives:GDP is not wrong as such but wrongly used

What we measure affects what we do; and if ourmeasurements are flawed, our decisions may be distorted.

(Technical issues — quality change, govt intermediateinputs (remedial/defensive expenditures) / G in GDP)Income vs ProductionNet vs Gross —especially DepletionExternalities and Non-market activities —missing in GDP

We will not change our behavior unless we change theways we measure economic performance.Growing Poorer — aNNI vs GDP

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GDP accounting leads to poor decision-makingGrowth in GDP vs Growth in aNNI: Cross-Country Data: 1990–2008

may need to be revisited because it may be largely unjusti-fied under current policies.

From GDP to National Wealth

The key to increasing future consumption and thus the stan-dard of living lies in increasing national wealth, including notonly the traditional measures of capital (such as producedand human capital), but also natural capital. Natural capital,in turn, comprises assets such as land, forests, and subsoil re-

sources. All three types of capital—produced, human, andnatural—are key inputs to sustaining economic growth.

However, as the Stiglitz quote on the first page of thisnote points out, GDP does not account for the depreciationof assets. Drawing down assets (of any kind) implies dissav-

2 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise

a. By income level

real GDP

growth

20

10

0

–10

–20

–20

–10 0 10 20

real aNNI growth

low-income countries

high-income OECD countries

high-income non–OECD countries

lower-middle-income countries

upper-middle-income countries

b. By geographic region

real GDP

growth

20

10

0

–10

–20

–20

–10 0 10 20

real aNNI growth

East Asia and the Pacific

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Africa

Sub-Saharan AfricaSource: World Bank 2010.Note: OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Figure 1. Rates of Growth of Real GDP versus Real aNNI, 1990–2008

Figure 2. Growth Rates of GDP and aNNI in Sub-Saharan Africa,1991–2008

Source: World Bank 2010.

percent

8

6

4

2

0

–2

–4

–6

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

year

real GDP growth real aNNI growth

Figure 3. Consumption, GDP, and aNNI in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008Constant 2000 US$

Source: World Bank 2010.

millions of U

S$

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

1990199219941996199820002002200420062008

year

GDPfinal consumption expenditureadjusted net national income (aNNI)

may need to be revisited because it may be largely unjusti-fied under current policies.

From GDP to National Wealth

The key to increasing future consumption and thus the stan-dard of living lies in increasing national wealth, including notonly the traditional measures of capital (such as producedand human capital), but also natural capital. Natural capital,in turn, comprises assets such as land, forests, and subsoil re-

sources. All three types of capital—produced, human, andnatural—are key inputs to sustaining economic growth.

However, as the Stiglitz quote on the first page of thisnote points out, GDP does not account for the depreciationof assets. Drawing down assets (of any kind) implies dissav-

2 POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK www.worldbank.org/economicpremise

a. By income level

real GDP

growth

20

10

0

–10

–20

–20

–10 0 10 20

real aNNI growth

low-income countries

high-income OECD countries

high-income non–OECD countries

lower-middle-income countries

upper-middle-income countries

b. By geographic region

real GDP

growth

20

10

0

–10

–20

–20

–10 0 10 20

real aNNI growth

East Asia and the Pacific

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Africa

Sub-Saharan AfricaSource: World Bank 2010.Note: OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Figure 1. Rates of Growth of Real GDP versus Real aNNI, 1990–2008

Figure 2. Growth Rates of GDP and aNNI in Sub-Saharan Africa,1991–2008

Source: World Bank 2010.

percent

8

6

4

2

0

–2

–4

–6

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

year

real GDP growth real aNNI growth

Figure 3. Consumption, GDP, and aNNI in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2008Constant 2000 US$

Source: World Bank 2010.

millions of U

S$

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

1990199219941996199820002002200420062008

year

GDPfinal consumption expenditureadjusted net national income (aNNI)

aNNI = GNI − capital depreciation − energy depletion −mineral depletion − net forest depletion

K Hamilton & E Ley (2010) “Measuring National Income and Growth in Resource-Rich, Income-Poor Countries”

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Some Facts IG Equity Issues Wealth Reform Laundry List

From GDP to NNIExtractive Industries and Foreign Entities in African Economies

Aggregate Supply (Q total output minus R intermediate inputs)must equal Aggregate Demand (Domestic and External):

(Q − R) + M = C + I + XGDP ≡ (Q − R) = C + I + (X −M)︸ ︷︷ ︸

Trade Balance

GNI ≡ GDP + Yf + Yr

= C + I + (X −M) + Yf + Yr︸ ︷︷ ︸Current Account Balance

aNNI ≡ GNI − (δK + nsR)aNS ≡ aNNI − (C − E)

aNS ≡ adjusted (or genuine) national savings.

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Sustainable Development

Intergenerational well-being:

Vt =

∫∞

t[U(Cs)e−δ(s−t)]ds (1)

Since Ct = F(Kt) − It, we have Vt = V(Kt).Kt includes different types of capital:

physicalnaturalintangible: knowledge, human, and social capital

National Wealth:Wt =

∑i

pitKit (2)

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Genuine InvestmentSource of increasing/maintaining Wealth

Increasing well-being:

∆Vt =∑

j

pjt∆Kjt︸ ︷︷ ︸exogenous

+∑

i

pit∆Kit (3)

Sustainable development: Vt+1 ≥ Vt for all tpit’s are shadow prices reflecting social valuespit∆Kit ≡ Iit is capital i’s genuine investmentGenuine investment is the driver of sustainabledevelopment

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Where’s the Wealth of Nations?Wealth is the source of sustainable Consumption

Wealth Shares by Type of Asset and Income Group (2005)Capital

Produced Natural IntangibleLow Income 13 30 57Lower Middle-Income 24 25 51Upper Middle-Income 16 15 69High Income OECD 17 2 81World 18 5 77

Source: The Changing Wealth of Nations, WB (2010)

Key for Sustainable Well-Being

Increase/maintain per-capita National WealthGenuine Investment—transforms resources into Wealth

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Rapid, Equitable Growth — Virtuous CircleRole of Government

Achieving Inclusive Growth — Asset Agenda1 Induce the poor to invest in the assets that they

control—typically land and human capital2 Increasing the rates of return to human capital and other

assets leads to1 increased work effort2 higher savings3 higher investment4 future: higher productivity, lower inequality

3 An important factor in the East Asia Miracle

(Nancy Birdsall and others (2000) “Natural Resources, Human Capital and Growth”)

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Genuine Savings as percent of GNI: 1980–2007Divergence—Big Time

-­‐10  

-­‐5  

0  

5  

10  

15  

20  

25  

30  

35  

1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005  

Percen

tage  of  G

NI  

Genuine  Saving:  1980-­‐2007  

Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa  

La6n  America  &  Caribbean  

East  Asia  &  Pacific  

Source: Ley and Hamilton (2010)

Adjusted Net National Income = GNI - capital depreciation - energy depletion - mineral depletion - net forest depletion

Adjusted National Savings = aNNI - consumption + education expenditures

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Political Economy of Reform

Development Multilaterals, IFIs

What do we do?Support of Current PoliciesSmall ∆s: ProjectsLarge ∆s: Reforms

ElementsAnalytics / KnowledgePolitical Economy of Reform

Understand why things are the way they areEngage partners/reformers with political capital

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Political Economy of Reform

Creative & cooperative elements of entrepreneurship

“This one-sided picture and the traditional emphasis onthe creative aspect of entrepreneurship, combined perhapswith an apologetic feeling about the cooperativecomponent, have prevented us from noticing theimportance of the latter and its lack in manyunderdeveloped countries.“This lack can now be understood as a direct consequenceof a strongly ego-focused conception of progress and theconsequent diffusion of tension and hostility between thepeople.”

—A.O. Hirschman (1958) The Strategy of Development

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Political Economy of Reform

Group-focused vs Ego-focused ChangeAny project/reform that passes the CBA test increases WPolicymakers care not only about W (country’s portfolio ofcapital assets) but also about their own political capital:Kpol(W, ·)Their own objective function: αW + (1 − α)Kpol(W, ·)HRV: The set of policies that is likely to provide the biggestbang for the reform buck to make best use of scarcepolitical capital

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Shared GrowthSchematics

∆Capital +3 ∆Output

((RRRRRRRRRRRRRR ∆Ξks

∆Labor Productivity

08jjjjjjjjjjjjjjj

jjjjjjjjjjjjjjj

��

�� ���� ��∆Employment

KS

∆Taxes

OO

uu

@D

HL

OSVY\_begj

��vv v6 v6 v6 v6 v6 v6 v6 v6 v6

�� ���� ��∆Wages ::JM

PS V Y \ _ b e h k

nq

t

�� ���� ��∆Social Transfers ∆Human K

hhRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

llYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

aa

�*

5?

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Qs Laundry List

1 What was the past growth performance?analysis of trends: per capita GDPstandard tablesinvestment over time

2 What are the aggregate-demand sources of growth?decompose the rate of growth of GDP in the part explainedby domestic demand and by net exports,break up the contribution of each component of demand:consumption, investment, government spending, exportsand imports

3 What are the sectoral sources of growth?decompose the rate of growth by sector of origin(agriculture, manufacturing industry, services etc.)

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Qs Laundry List

4 What was the role of TFP vs factor accumulation?growth accounting

5 What has been the path of investment and wealth?estimation of capital stock and capital/income ratios.

if there is no capital accumulation something is happening.same logic can be applied to migration of labor and of highlyskilled people

Is economic growth sustainable?national wealth, depletion

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Qs Laundry List

7 What has been the return on human and physical capital?analysis of RORK with as much disaggregation as possible.

rork multiplies the change in the capital stock, you can havehigh investment share but low productivity in theinvestment projects;labor: what is happening to the wage premium?

8 What are the population trends?Population trendsDemographic structureLabor force participationEducation attainmentRate of return on education

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9 What has been the productivity performance?ICAsWhat percentage of industries account for TFP gains in theperiod?What characterizes the firms and industries experiencingnegative TFP growth?What is the state of technology adoption?

10 What are obstacles to the expansion of exports?product space

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Qs Laundry List

11 What is the macro environment?inflation, interest rates, BOP, credit to private sector,exchange rate

12 What is the role of government?Composition of government spendingRegulationWhat are the promising reforms?

Ay, caramba!


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