Executive Analysis of ASEAN Automotive Market Outlook ASEAN Offers High Potential as the Sixth-largest Automotive

Market in World

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June 2014

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Executive Summary

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Total Automotive Market: Key Takeaways, ASEAN, 2013

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Key Findings By 2020, Indonesia is likely to replace Thailand as the largest automotive market in ASEAN; Thailand to

become an international automotive production hub.

In 2013, the ASEAN automotive market witnessed a marginal increase (1.1%) in unit shipment.

Indonesia and Malaysia witnessed historical highs in automotive sales, whereas Thailand

witnessed a decline in vehicle sales over the previous year due to economic slowdown and

political turmoil.

Automotive production in ASEAN witnessed a y-o-y growth of 4.2%. Indonesia alone recorded a

13.4% growth over 2012 as several OEMs set up new production or expansion projects.

Thailand, ASEAN’s production hub, recorded a marginal growth (0.1%), but Malaysia reached a

record production volume above 600,000 units with 5.6% growth over 2012.

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Passenger vehicles are emerging as the key segment in ASEAN, particularly the compact fuel-

efficient ones, due to Thailand’s eco-car program, Indonesia's KBH2, and Malaysia’s Low-cost

Green Car (LCGC) program.

Japanese car brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan continue to be most popular in

Thailand and Indonesia. Malaysian national car brands Proton and Perodua remain market

leaders but are expected to lose considerable market share to Japanese brands by 2020.

In 2020, ASEAN is expected to retain its position as the sixth-largest automotive market globally.

Indonesia is expected to overtake Thailand to emerge as the largest automotive market in the

region. Thailand is expected to continue to be the largest production hub in ASEAN.

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Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements By 2020, the ASEAN automotive market to touch 4.9 million units.

For a tabular version click here.

Total Automotive Market: Market Engineering Measurements, ASEAN, 2013

Stable Increasing Decreasing

Market Overview

*Not Applicable as each market under consideration has

different market participants as top 3 companies.

Market Stage

Growth

Market

Units/Volume

3,216,366

(2013)

Compound

Annual Growth

Rate

6.2%

(CAGR, 2013–2020)

Base Year

Market Growth

Rate

1.1%

Market

Concentration

56.4%

(% of market share held

by top 3 companies)

Number of

Competitors

~40

(active market competitors

in base year)

Market Size for

Last Year of

Study Period

4,891,500

(2020)

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Total Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, ASEAN, 2013–2020

CAGR = 6.2%

Key: Graph in center represents data for 2020.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Thailand Indonesia Malaysia

Commercial Vehicles 796,000 672,000 100,200

Passenger Vehicles 820,500 1,728,000 774,800

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

Countries 2013

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

2020

Un

it S

hip

me

nt

3,216,366 4,891,500

1,616,500

2,400,000

875,000

• The ASEAN automotive market is likely to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% from 3,216,366 units in 2013 to 4,891,500

units in 2020 driven by increased unit shipment in the 3 key markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Indonesia is expected to become the largest automotive market in the region by 2020.

• The passenger vehicle segment is likely to dominate the ASEAN market. While Indonesia and Malaysia are

expected to continue their higher preference for the passenger vehicle segment in 2020, the key pick-up

market in the region-Thailand -is also expected to witness a gradual shift to compact passenger vehicles due

to the success of its eco-car program.

Total Market Unit Shipment SnapshotIndonesia to continue to be the largest market in ASEAN in 2020.

66.0%

34.0%

50.8%

49.2%

72.0%

28.0%

88.5%

11.5%

67.9%

32.1%

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Total Automotive Market: Competitive Landscape, ASEAN, 2013

Region Top 3 Companies

Other Key

Companies

Market Share %

(Top 3

Companies)

Top-selling

Passenger Vehicles

Thailand Toyota, Honda and

Nissan

Mitsubishi, Suzuki,

Mazda 65.0%

Toyota Hilux

Isuzu D-Max Toyota

Vios

Indonesia Toyota, Honda and

Suzuki

Honda, Nissan,

Daihatsu 63.7%

Toyota Avanza

Daihatsu Xenia

Toyota Kijang Innova

Malaysia Proton, Perodua

and Toyota

Honda, Nissan,

NAZA-KIA 65.0%

Perodua Myvi, Proton

Saga, Perodua Viva

Competitive Positioning of Key Industry Participants

Source: Frost & Sullivan

In Thailand and Indonesia, the automotive market is led by Japanese brands, whereas in Malaysia, national

brands are market leaders.

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Region Vehicle Demand by 2020 Top Passenger Vehicle Segments

Thailand Demand growth: 1.3 M units (2013) to

1.6 M units in 2020

Pick-ups most popular but shift in market

preference to compact fuel-efficient cars

Indonesia Demand growth: 1.2 M units (2013) to

2.4 M units in 2020

MPVs and SUVs are most popular but

shifting preference toward fuel-efficient cars

Malaysia Demand growth: 0.7 M units (2013) to

nearly 0.9 M units in 2020

Continued preference for cars with engine

capacity 1,300cc–1,800cc most preferred

Total Automotive Market: Comparative Analysis by Region, ASEAN, 2013

Comparative Analysis by Region and Segment

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Indonesia is expected to become the largest automotive market in ASEAN by 2020 with 2.4 million units.

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Parameters Current Outlook (2013) Future Outlook (2020)

Market Status

The year 2013 was a record-breaking year in the ASEAN

automotive market with a y-o-y growth of 1.1% and a

sales volume of 3.2 million units. Indonesia witnessed

increased sales, whereas Thailand experienced a 7.4%

drop in sales over 2012 but continued to be largest

automotive market in ASEAN.

The ASEAN automotive market is expected to grow steadily at a

CAGR of 6.2% reaching sales volume of 4.9 million units in 2020.

Indonesia is likely to surpass Thailand as the largest automotive

market in ASEAN.

Production

Volumes

ASEAN registered vehicle production of 4.3 million units in

2013 led by Thailand with 2.5 million units, Indonesia with

1.2 million units, and Malaysia with 0.6 million units.

Thailand remained the largest production hub due to its

eco-car program and other attractive incentives under the

program .

Automotive production in ASEAN is expected to grow at a CAGR

of 8.6% to reach 7.6 million units in 2020. Thailand is likely to

continue its dominance as a major production hub for both pick-

ups and compact, fuel-efficient passenger cars. Indonesia is

expected to get significant boost in the coming years with several

new production or expansion projects taking place. Malaysia is to

experience increased production due to newline establishment for

locally assembled EEVs.

Competition

Japanese car makers Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are

market leaders in Thailand and Indonesia. In Malaysia,

national car makers Proton and Perodua dominate the

market.

Japanese companies to continue to dominate Thailand and

Indonesia markets. OEMs to create intense competition with

aggressive promotions and new product offerings within the

domestic market. In Malaysia, national brands market share to

fall as Japanese and other OEMs grab more share of the market.

Key Vehicle

Segments

Passenger vehicles are emerging as the key segment in

ASEAN. In Thailand, though pick-ups continue to be the

most popular, smaller fuel-efficient eco-cars are gaining

preference. In Indonesia, MPVs and hatchback city cars

are preferred, whereas in Malaysia, the sedan segment is

most preferred.

Passenger vehicles to continue to be the key vehicle segment in

ASEAN with increased popularity of hybrid vehicles and electric

vehicles. Smaller compact and environment-friendly, fuel-efficient

vehicles to have greater preference and demand.

Total Automotive Market: Current and Future Outlook, ASEAN, 2013 and 2020

Key Findings and Future Outlook

Source: Frost & Sullivan

The ASEAN automotive market and vehicle production set to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% and 8.6%, respectively, from 2013 to

2020. Thailand to be the international production hub and Indonesia to be the largest automotive market in the region by 2020.