EXPANDING OUR CELESTIAL HORIZONS: THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF DEVELOPING A SPACE SECTOR ECONOMY TO THE FUTURE OF AFRICA: ABSTRACT Space… Does space really matter? As more and more turn towards a space sector economy to aid them in developing their countries, to improve economic growth and the quality of life from telecommunications and broadcasting to satellites for climate change, agriculture, conserving natural resources to urban planning and anticipating natural disasters, we in Africa should be asking: How can we benefit? Of what potential impact and value would developing a space sector economy be? How has it assisted us so far? This paper therefore advocates, that the future of emerging African nations is not constrained to the stereotypical, outdated economic model of the past but through the myriad economic opportunities through trade, employment, expenditure, economic activity, investment and other chances offered by satellites, space research, technology, projects such as MeerKAT, SALT, the VBLI and the SKA, that if we are to ensure the economic sovereignty of our nations and continent, if we are ever to benefit from space research and technology, that the future lies in developing a space sector economy in Africa. It provides an overview history of existing African space accomplishments, the purpose and value of the African space economy, space agencies and facilities, their research and technology. It seeks to
Transcript
EXPANDING OUR CELESTIAL HORIZONS: THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF DEVELOPING A SPACE SECTOR ECONOMY TO THE FUTURE OF AFRICA:
ABSTRACT
Space… Does space really matter? As more and more turn towards a space sector economy to aid them in
developing their countries, to improve economic growth and the quality of life from telecommunications and
broadcasting to satellites for climate change, agriculture, conserving natural resources to urban planning
and anticipating natural disasters, we in Africa should be asking: How can we benefit? Of what potential
impact and value would developing a space sector economy be? How has it assisted us so far? This paper
therefore advocates, that the future of emerging African nations is not constrained to the stereotypical,
outdated economic model of the past but through the myriad economic opportunities through trade,
employment, expenditure, economic activity, investment and other chances offered by satellites, space
research, technology, projects such as MeerKAT, SALT, the VBLI and the SKA, that if we are to ensure the
economic sovereignty of our nations and continent, if we are ever to benefit from space research and
technology, that the future lies in developing a space sector economy in Africa. It provides an overview
history of existing African space accomplishments, the purpose and value of the African space economy,
space agencies and facilities, their research and technology. It seeks to further pinpoint a methodology
capable of assessing the economic impact of space through existing space agency efforts primarily for
South Africa as the main African space economy participant but also for countries such as Algeria, Nigeria,
Egypt, Tunisia, Ghana, Kenya and others, to inspire Africans to invest and believe that we too can benefit
from space, as a historically neglected area of research. It aspires to a partial cost-benefit analysis to
ultimately determine the future prospects and impact of developing this space sector economy in Africa.
Name of Author: Jack Alban Dyer
University: College of Law and Management Sciences, School of Economics, Accounting and Finance, University of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa
Table 9: SANSA Space Earth Observations Directorate Research Benefits……………………………….43
Table 10: SANSA Space Operations Directorate Research Benefits…………………………………………44
Table 11: SANSA Space Science Directorate Research Benefits………………………………………………45
Table 12: SANSA Space Engineering Directorate Research Benefits…………………………………………46
List of Abbreviations:
AEB: Brazilian Space Agency
ASAL: Agence Spatiale Algérienne/ Algeria)
ASI: Agenzia Spaziale Italiana/ Italian Space Agency
CNES: French Space Agency
CNIE: National Commission for Space Research for Argentina which changes to CONAE or the National
Space Activities Commission
CNSA: Chinese National Space Administration
CNT: National Remote Sensing Centre of Tunisia.
DLR: The German Aerospace Centre
ESA: European Space Agency
IAU: International Astronomical Union
ISRO: Indian Space Research Organisation
JAXA: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
NASA: National Aeronautic and Space Administration
NARSS: Egypt National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science.
NASRDA: The Nigerian National Space Research and Development Agency
UN: United Nations
USA: United States of America
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1: Introduction
Why Africa?
Why ever not?
For decades, Africa’s economic prospects to the world have appeared stagnant –to serve as nothing more
than an exporter of raw commodities, unskilled labour and capital/ professional outflows from those seeking
better returns and opportunities elsewhere… for many African countries. Historically, we as Africans have
ignored the possibilities of creating our own economic future, merely being content with concentrating on
providing what the rest of the world wants before they process and value add it –before re-exporting it to us
as higher value goods, rather than seek to create our own products, research and technological innovation
for ourselves and for export. Development economists still characterise developing countries structurally;
in terms of the Fisher Clarke Thesis based on a primary sector in agriculture, petty services and little or no
industry. They also fall into Rostow’s transitional stage of growth, in the five stages of economic
development model reflecting the process of agriculture’s factor, market, product and foreign exchange
contributions as developing countries specialise in the trade of primary commodities for which they have a
comparative advantage or alternatively they follow Rostow’s take off growth stage through a process of
industrialisation. Developing countries also have lower levels of industrialisation and manufactured exports
initiating lower levels of savings, capital accumulation and investment from greater risk. Additionally;
developing countries often experience a vicious cycle of cumulative/ recurrent poverty in the poverty trap
based on these characteristics such as poor productivity leads to low income which leads to low capital
accumulation and investment in infrastructure/ or in healthcare, education etc… entailing low productivity
and further stagnation or decline economically. Superficially, many African countries are considered as
reflecting these characteristics, consigned to remain in this perpetual poverty trap cycle as net recipients of
aid, never considering that there are potential solutions.
However, this paper argues that there are alternative economic sectors which we as Africa can seek to
ensure our own economic sovereignty and development potential. In a previous paper: “Ensuring Africa’s Future as a Maritime Power,” and for a Master’s Dissertation: “Is A Proposed Port Expansion Really Necessary?” among others, this author proposes the maritime sector as another source of economic
opportunities. However, this also applies to the space sector economy, which this paper proposes as an
alternative path for sustainable economic growth, development and opportunity that we as citizens of the
countries of Africa could capitalise on the most recent of emerging economic trends. This paper rejects the
orthodox Ricardian model of specialising according to the principle of comparative and absolute advantage
which globalisation often proposes for Africa, as consigning many African nations to remain as net
exporters of natural resources/ unskilled labour facing net diminishing returns from low productivity in
agriculture, industry and mining –from malnutrition; poor health and education. By specialising in primary
commodities and subsistence sector agriculture, they face challenges that do little to provide a sustainable
catalyst for growth subject to the Prebisch Singer Thesis or a historical decline in primary commodity prices
over time. Alternatively, like Angola and Equatorial Guinea for oil, Mauritius for sugar cane, the Comoros
and Zanzibar for spices, Ghana for cocoa or Botswana and Sierra Leone for diamonds, many are
consigned to face Dutch Disease based on an economic monoculture artificially over-appreciating the
official exchange rate and reducing potential export competitiveness through diversification and economic
autarchy (self-sufficiency through import substitution).
As Africans, do we really aspire to remain like this? Do we seek to perpetuate an economic model for our
countries facing high poverty, unemployment and other problems in an increasingly globalised world, with
little innovation, technology and research –reliant on the developed world and emerging industrialised
economies? However, it is time to obliterate this narrow preconception. More of the world is turning to the
prospects offered by space and we in Africa cannot afford to ignore one of the key sectors that could
assure our independence, serving as a true catalyst of economic growth and development. The growth of
Africa’s economies ranging from 3-10%, considerably exceeds those of the developed world, still
significantly suffering the aftermath of the 2008 global financial sector crisis and subsequent economic
recession. It is those of Africa who have spent billions upgrading their infrastructure through significant port
expansions, establishing their own space agencies and satellites, who have sought to reinvent their future
as part of an African Renaissance. It is South Africa that has the largest radio telescopes in the southern
hemisphere with the KAT, MeerKAT and SALT and is destined to host the Square Kilometre Array
Telescope. It is we, who realising the value of space, through significant investments in expanding our
celestial horizons, through investments in space related education, agencies and the commercial sector, as
this paper will illustrate have the chance to change this flawed economic model to one which we will have
the chance to become equal, independent African nation partners to the challenges facing the world.
This paper will identify the potential impact of investing in space as a future economic sector for Africa by
first highlighting its current problems that necessitate this (1.2) after providing a historic overview of space
exploration in Africa (1.3) to partially illustrate certain African space achievements. It seeks through a
Literature Review to provide a proposed methodology and research approach to ascertaining the potential
impact, costs and benefits of space (2.2), identifying the existing space agencies in Africa, in an attempt to
clarify their declared purpose (2.3) where possible. It also seeks to provide a theoretical structural basis to
justify the extent to which this paper is necessary (2.4) partially summarising past research’s previous
strengths and weaknesses (2.5) for this and subsequent research in ascertaining the future of Africa in
space. This is further developed in this paper through providing a partial overview of the space economy in
Africa (3.1), illuminating the potential impact and developments of several African space projects –the
MeerKAT, SALT (Southern African Large Telescope) and SKA (Square Kilometre Array) Telescope in 3.2
along with highlighting the historic, current and possible future benefits in space including employment and
expenditure (3.3), Potential Social, Educational, Psychological and Other Benefits (3.4), technology (3.5),
research and trade/ investment opportunities (3.7) along with potentially identifying any possible costs of
individual and African continental space programmes (3.8) to conclude in Chapter 4, as to whether
developing the space sector can truly serve as a future economic model for Africa
1.2: Problem Statement
There are many advantages to satellite technology, to hosting space laboratories, agencies, education
training facilities, a space programme, advocacy organisations, facilities and commercial organisations…
Globally, as this paper will illuminate further, satellites alone provide numerous functions, especially to the
developed world from agriculture, to land use and development planning, disease and agricultural
monitoring, mineral prospecting and others that Freeman (February 2011) among others; specifically
identified for the United Kingdom Space Agency but are applicable in Africa… For all orthodox economic
theory which postulates that growth has to proceed from primary commodities to industrialisation to the
development of a service sector economy according to Rostow’s model of sustainable growth, as stated
above this model argues that the answer to African problems is to invest in space and those other
economic sectors, that are capable of self-sustaining convergence “catch up”, growth. This paper
postulates that one prime reason why the developed world continues to enjoy such an economic
advantage; is its endorsement of investment in human capital, technology and research –including
specifically space. The prime advantage is institutional capacity –of intelligence –of forethought,
preparation… -to be forewarned is to be forearmed, to have access to superior information is to be able to
profit (from new technology such as telecommunication and tele-medicine) or anticipate risks/ uncertainty
better (i.e. for natural disasters or planning agriculture from satellite observation) or enjoy a higher quality of
life (such as satellite broadcasting, robotics etc). One of the reasons Africa falls behind, is that it has too
few satellites, researchers, patents and space facilities of its own…
But consider how much we as Africa are expected to pay to import this, when we could be manufacturing
these for ourselves… After all, an overview of historical and contemporary projects, research and
technology from Africa’s existing space agencies/ economy as this paper proposes can exist at all and
compete internationally, will further substantiate this. Consider how much it would improve our balance of
payments, foreign reserves, national Gross Domestic Product, foreign direct investment, employment and
taxation revenue rates, if we as Africa were to have the same skills development, technology,
entrepreneurs, research and economic potential, if we possessed the same capacity of graduates, if we too
could expand our celestial horizons and our own individual nation and continental space economies had
similar capacity, resources and support, not utterly dependent on the whim, progress, enthusiasm and
ability of others. How can it be expedient to permit others to control one’s own economic progress? How
can we afford not to invest in space? The value of currently monitoring space alone is priceless –for whom
could put a price on survival, efficient information and reliable communications all derived from satellites.
Who could possibly imagine the modern world around them? Has space not in itself proven to be worthy of
our attention as potential solutions to our problems, profitable and with minimal externality costs, rather
than orthodox economic theory which subscribes to Kaldor’s laws favouring industrialisation as the only
solution.
Kaldor’s First Law is a positive correlation between manufacturing output gm and GDP growth. gGDP =
f1(gm) f1’>0 (f1 is the hypothesized positive functional relationship which basically states that, the higher
manufacturing output or industrialisation, the higher the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product. Verdoorn’s
Law Pm =fm (gm) f2’>0 (f1 is the hypothesized positive functional relationship); is the second of Kaldor’s
three laws explaining industrialisation as the engine of economic growth and development for countries as
industry yields substantial increasing industry returns. It states that there is a positive correlation between
output, employment and population growth and that of manufacturing productivity growth. Kaldor’s Third
Law is a positive correlation between manufacturing growth and that of non-manufacturing productivity. pnm
=f3 (gm) f’3>0. Overall productivity growth is positively related to industry growth but negatively related to the
growth of employment outside industry. However, although these all notionally support the idea of
industrialisation as the solution to Africa (a hypothesis this paper rejects), they rely on the notion of ever-
expanding merging markets in which output and export growth depends on GDP growth which depends on
competitiveness which depends on productivity which depends on GDP growth –which other countries find
it difficult to break into without protectionism; enterprise or imitating the more successful country. It ignores
the growing scarcity and depletion of environmental resources, (which satellite and other space technology
can assist in conserving or locating additional resources) and unlike space technology and projects, which
can help stimulate local expenditure and employment, directly and indirectly through the Keynesian
Multiplier effect (see Figure 1/2), it assumes a world of continuously increasing production and consumption
capacity –which is tenuous among a world still incurring the aftermath of the 2008 global recession from a
volatile banking sector, seven years later. However, environmentally, amid increasing evidence of
accelerated climate change and increasing global uncertainty over the potential risks and consequences
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others, we cannot afford it.
The outside world also needs us more than they realise… They remain vulnerable without the benefits of
as significant intelligence and observation network over Africa/ the southern hemisphere/ developing
nations, along with evident inability to potentially benefit from any research, innovation or technology that
could arise from a new generation of space education facilities and research laboratories, satellites, space
agencies and commercial entrepreneurs –perhaps even space tourism… Existing examples, demonstrate
the commitment shown by certain African nations to this future of space. Nigeria’s original satellite helped
the USA to monitor the unfolding disaster of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans in 2005 and aftermath. Both
Nigeria and Egypt are supplementing higher value government revenue from the foreign exchange earned
from state owned commercial satellites. Nigeria and South Africa has shown that it is possible to use
Africans to finance, support, design, build, operate and maintain satellites ourselves… Morocco, Algeria,
Egypt, South Africa, Tunisia and Nigeria. Kenya has the potential. 8 African countries will be involved in the
SKA. Ghana are opening space education (Ghana Space Centre), are contemplating a space museum –
reactivate old satellite dishes as radio telescopes as part of the VLBI initiative. Lacking government
endorsement –perhaps globally unique, Uganda’s African Space Research Programme relies on
individuals and private commercial funding only. This paper postulates that many problems that we as
Africans face… can be self-resolved, given the infinite possibilities of expanding our celestial horizons.
For example, with knowledge, adaptive to climate change, able to understand and control data, we might
be better able to deliver services, control population and medical epidemics, able to be an independent
progenitor of its own economic future and African Renaissance… as Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria and South
Africa have especially sought. Apart from the uses cited above, we might be able to use them to contain
natural disasters and wildlife counting/ monitoring –to help avert the poaching of fish from our oceans,
rhinos and elephants from our reserves, rare orchards and other species –to preserve our natural heritage
for tourism revenue and future generations, preventing others from pillaging our resources. Perhaps
satellites might even contribute towards regional peace –locate movements of tyrants or could be used to
reduce conflict –counter insurgencies that threaten stability in Somalia, in the Congo, Nigeria and
elsewhere, without relying on external intervention. Imagine Africa at peace… fed from satellite
agriculture… able to solve its own problems. International cooperation in space across the world, apart
from Antarctica has been one of the greatest contributions to peace among G20 nations since World War 2
and it can only help political and economic stability across Africa, if existing African space economy
participants were able to collaborate with those aspirant –perhaps even a regional African space agency,
with our own spaceport as a future… Without our own space economy –the capacity for our own satellites,
spaceport, space scientists, researchers, own technological capacity, own space commercial sector, our
own large projects and infrastructure etc, we in Africa will never be truly independent. Our reputation will
continue as mere recipients of aid donor funding unable to independently contribute or participate in the
global economy to the challenges and crises of our Age. This will affirm that we as Africans can cooperate
in advancing humanity and have the ability to achieve our own economic destiny through a space sector
economy.
1.3: A History of Space Exploration in Africa
Ever since ancient Egypt and later Ptolemaic Alexandria and the Great Library or the identification of the
stars of Sirius by the Dogan of Mali and others, we in Africa have contributed to astronomical research and
sought to expand the celestial horizons of the world. This abbreviated historical timeline below provides
only a partial indication of how active Africa was and remains in space exploration for all those who truly
believe that developing a space sector economy is unAfrican as well as to provide a record of practical
achievement that other African nations can follow for their future in space.
(Gottschalk 2011/ Martinez April 2008/ The Tauri Group September 2011. / Space agency websites .)Ancient Alexandria
The contributions to astronomical scholarship with Ptolemy’s Almagest (the standard textbook) and Cosmographica (the geo-centric theory of the Universe) that persisted for centuries along with the Museion and the Great Library, along with ancient Egypt provide among the established pioneering contributions of Africa and its inhabitants.
1820: The first permanent observatory in the southern hemisphere is established in Cape Town
1947: The South African Desmond Prout Jones launches his first rocket
1953: The volunteer Interplanetary Society is established in Johannesburg
1959: (The South African Rocket Research Group (SARRG) of volunteers is founded, launching 528 rockets before being banned, including the continent’s first two and five stage rockets and the first liquid propelled rocket up to a 40 kilometre height by the 6 October 1959 (When the Soviet Union’s unmanned rocket reached the Moon.)
1961: The first African space tracking base Deep Space Station 51 is developed by NASA at Hartebeesthoek, later becoming the Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory
1963: The South African state firm ARMSCOR cooperates with the French to establish rocket missiles locally –developing rocket propelled artillery by 1980’s
1968-1970: South Africa becomes the first African signatory of the UN Outer Space Treaty and other international space legislation
1970: With Italy and NASA assistance, Kenya launches the first global celestial X Ray satellite Uhuru
1974: NASA provided its dish antennae to South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research to operate independently
1980’s. The South African apartheid armed forces devise a satellite launch facility at Arniston and a satellite integration facility at Grabouw, both near Cape Town abandoned by US pressure during the transition to multiracial democracy in South Africa. Grabouw was reused by the University of Stellenbosch but Arniston remains used for South African Air Force tests only.
1 June 1989: With Israeli assistance, South Africa becomes Africa’s first country to test fire then launch its own satellite (The RSA 3).
1991: The Egyptian General Authority for Remote Sensing is created becoming NARSS (The National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science. In 1998 Europe designed Nile Sat 1 is launched and Nile Sat 2 in 2000.
1999: South Africa’s earth observation satellite SUNSAT is launched
2001: The Nigerian National Space Research and Development Agency (NARSDA) is created, achieving its first satellite launch (Nigeria-Sat1 by September 2003.
January 2002: The Algerian Space Agency (ASAL) is founded
2005: The eleven metre, largest Southern hemisphere and African telescope SALT (Southern Africa Large Telescope) is established
December 2006: Nigeria-Sat 2 is jointly developed by the UK and Nigeria’s NARSDA (Boroffice December 2008.).
May 2007: The first Nigerian commercial satellite (Nigeria-Com Sat) is inaugurated. The remote sensing Egypt-Sat 1 is designed in partnership with the Ukraine. In 2010, Egypt devised a communication satellite Nile-Sat 201.
15 December 2008: The South African Space Agency is created as an autonomous entity.
2009: Another earth observation satellite SUMBANDILA is launched in South Africa.
2011: A joint South African partnership funds the Intelstat New Dawn commercial communication satellite
2013: Ghana initiates its own Space Science and Technology Centre
2010: KAT (Karoo Array Telescope) the 7 dish prototype radio telescope is established.
March 2014: The radio telescope MeerKAT is initiated in South Africa
2017-2024: The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope is projected to be constructed
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1: Proposed Methodology and Research Approach
There remains no consistent methodology or research approach to evaluating the potential benefits and
costs of developing a space economy for any country. One of the prime flaws of existing literature is that it
is First World orientated with few substantial African case study examples, other than the self-publicising
reports offered by space agencies and lobbying groups, which lack objectivity or provide specific benefits.
This paper seeks to work towards a prototype methodology as a hypothetical basis for further research
based on these sated benefits, a partial literature review of previous sources and a cross-sectional cost
benefit analysis. In evaluating contemporary literature; this research considers that the space industry has
direct, indirect and indirect multiplier effects on the host economy. This can be illuminated by Figure 1
below, that Clark J, Knee P et al. May 2012 advocate to reflect the economic and environmental impacts
upstream (on producers) and downstream (on consumers or net users) of products, technology, research
and services, through direct injection of funds from government, the commercial sector and other financing
sources and indirectly through the subsequent expenditure of further employment, expenditure, trade and
investment, along with spillovers of knowledge (unexpected innovations which may assist other economic
sectors from agriculture to transport and planning to health, producer surplus (profit) and consumer surplus
(saved money/ other benefits of space products). Soko (20050 proposes an interview approach asking key
participants as to evaluating the status of the existing industry, its challenges, concerns and potential
prospects, imports and exports, assessing cooperation and potential costs/ benefits including wealth
creation, transfer of income from abroad and employment potential and other benefits.
Table I: Qualitative and Quantative Indicators of the Economic Impact of Space. Clark J, Knee P et al. 2012.Space Indicators (Qualitative) Space Indicators (Quantitative).
Context and Inputs Context
Total public investment in civil space Major new space missions/programmes launched
No of space missions flying/in development Major new sales to international customers
Expenditure on space education Major new mergers and acquisitions
No of current and new international agreements Major new mergers and acquisitions
Economic Economic
Value of measurable space effects Notable space-related spinoff companies
No and value of financial spinoffs from space Major new services/markets linked with space
No of space engineers and works in employment Major new process innovations/cost savings
Environmental Environmental
% of policy makers judging space to be critical to the
environment
No of major new environmental initiatives launched linked to
space
% of population judging space to be critical to the environment
Social Social
% of population judging space to be of strategic importance Major new international agreements
Major new social benefits
New educational programmes
Major scientific breakthroughs
Clark J, Knee P et al. May 2012 also propose a method that assesses the qualitative and quantative
impacts of space as an alternative mechanism to assess the potential direct and indirect impact of investing
in a space economy including estimating the expenditure versus the received revenue from the total public
investment in civil space programmes, education and research, the number of employment product, the
number and financial value of research publications, technology, space products and services, the number
of international agreements, the number of new companies formed and socially –the improvement of
people’s perceptions and public awareness of the value of space. However, this ignores other key
quantifiable variables excluding others such as improvements in geo-politics, prestige and influence. Space
specifically offers many other benefits in education, in safety, in defence and elsewhere, as Figure I and
Section 3.3 illuminates and to truly assess the full, rather than most research that fails to specifically
distinguish the space sector from aerospace or aerospace from transport (Human Sciences Research
Council January 2009). Where data is given it is sporadic and lacks more recent statistics (Soko 2005),
these both therefore impair accurate calculation of the total benefits derived from space, as opposed to the
opportunity cost of not investing in a space economy, also factoring externalities and any other possible
costs. The obtaining of data sources, budgets and other information is complicated by a lack of available
African specific sources and previous research studies, complicating the accuracy of any measurement of
true economic or other impacts. Most provide a global overview of the industry than a country specific
process. Some such as Soko advertise certain potential relevant industries (but ignore space agencies/
volunteers and other foundations. Most ignore the impact of projects, all space trade and investment
opportunities, the impact of research and technology as catalysts of economic growth in other sectors, any
adverse cost implications in a skewered approach to justify more funding. They often marginalise the
challenges facing future prospects in cultivating the overall African space sector economy and specific
nations.
2.2: The Declared Purpose of Space Agencies
In order to develop indigenous space economies, existing African space agencies such as NARSDA and
SANSA are structured to consist of research sections, operating centres, a commercial, publicity marketing
and public educational awareness campaign to mobilise support and funding, international cooperation
(essential given how expensive it is to establish and support an autonomous space programme and to
make it commercially sustainable), a national Space Council composed of space related key stakeholders
and a technical advisory section, to offer scientific and other support (NARSDA August 2010). This
provides a basic structure which subsequent space research agencies in African countries especially, could
follow to create a space research programme. Nigeria’s six operational centres: The Centre for Basic
Space Science and Astronomy; The National Centre for Remote Sensing, the Centre for Satellite
Technology Development, The Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics, the African Regional Centre for
Space and Technology Education and the Centre for Space Transport & Propulsion, seek to convey the
myriad purposes that space agencies can concentrate on. According to the founding SANSA Act (March
2008), the purpose of the South African Space Agency is: “To provide for the promotion and use of space and co-operation in space-related activities, foster research in space science, advance scientific engineering through human capital, support the creation of an environment conducive to industrial development in space technologies within the framework of national governmentPolicy.” Its existence is justified on the potential economic, research, technology, educational (“investment
in human capital”), infrastructure and even diplomatic (through endorsing the peaceful use of space and
increasing international cooperation,”) opportunities along with providing advice and support, that a
specialised space agency and programme can bring to its host economy. These do not have to be limited
to South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco or any of the few existing space agencies and programmes but could
apply to any new space agencies such as the proposed Pan African Space Agency.
We in Africa could learn from the examples of India, China and other space programmes that were
independently pursued. A 2003 White Paper on the history of China’s space programme on its China
National Space Administration website mentioned its self-development efforts under Chairman Mao
Zedong and his Communist Party leader successors. China developed its first satellite in April 1970 (the
fifth country globally) and many others since, its own “Long March,” launching vehicles, three satellite
launching sites, (Jiuquan, Xichang and Taiyuan), its own human rockets, remote sensing, observation,
information, telecommunication and telemetry capacity, independent research, technology and
development potential. NASA’s National Aeronautics and Space Act states its official purpose is
“To seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space.” Its
own National Space Policy states: “A robust and competitive commercial space sector is vital to continued progress in space. The United States is committed to encouraging and facilitating the growth of a U.S. commercial space sector that supports U.S. needs, is globally competitive, and advances U.S. leadership in the generation of new markets and innovation-driven entrepreneurship.” The United Kingdom Space Agency 2013/ 2014 official Corporate Plan envisions a
similar role: “To lead UK civil space policy within Government, providing informed and impartial advice to decision-makers and ensuring the UK’s views are influential in the international space policy environment, to build a stronger national space capability encompassing scientific and industrial centres of excellence; national space facilities; and a growing, skilled UK space workforce, to deliver a range of national and international space programmes in cooperation with industry and academia”; and “to regulate UK civil space activities to ensure compliance with international treaty responsibilities.” The Australian Space Agency 2014 State of Space Report
recommends the following seven principles towards enabling all potential space industry stakeholders to
benefit immensely from investing in this emerging global economic sector.
Principle 1: Developing and prioritising Space applications that have a significant security, economic and social impact, specifically Earth Observation, Satellite Communications and Position, Navigation and Timing;
• Principle 2: Ensuring resilient access to those space systems on which we rely now and to those important to our future national security, economic, environmental and social well-being;
• Principle 3: Strengthening those relationships and cooperative activities on which Australia relies, and will continue to rely to a substantial degree, for space system capabilities;
• Principle 4: Continuing to support rules-based international access to the space environment; promoting peaceful, safe and responsible activities in space;
• Principle 5: Enhancing the coordination, understanding and strategic direction of Australia’s uses and approach to space;
• Principle 6: Promoting collaboration between Australian public and private research and development organisations with industry in space- related activity, including space science, research and innovation in niche areas of excellence or national significance;
and • Principle 7: Ensuring Australia’s space capabilities will be used to enhance, and guard against threats to, our national security and economic well-being.
According to the South African National Space Science and Technology document, the rationale behind
South Africa’s endorsement of a specialised space policy, is to utilise the benefits of a space economy for
enhanced service delivery to its citizens as well as managing environmental resources, improving health,
safety and security (The Tauri Group. September 2011). NARSS in Egypt primarily concentrates on remote
sensing and other space science/ technology applications, excelling in pioneering practical applications of
satellite technology (see 3.6) to exploit it commercially to derive government revenue but also to expand
the efficiency of routine government functions –as well as responses to emergencies and disasters, as
cost-effective solutions that African governments with scarce resources could endorse. The Algerian space
agency ASAL similarly concentrates on its stated objectives: “national needs, development of space industrial capacity for trade and mastery of knowledge,” according to its website also concentrating on
satellites, whereas South Africa has more ambitiously sought to concentrate on hosting radio astronomy
telescopes -including the world’s largest SALT and future largest the Square Kilometre Array SKA (3.2)
and establish the VLBI –the Very Long Baseline Interferometry Network across Africa, among other
initiatives. Other similar space agencies include CNT for Tunisia and another in Morocco. Based on these
identified functions of leading African space agencies and the benefits elaborated on elsewhere, this paper
argues that the advantages of space related research can not only progress this but also the quality of life,
innovation and economic development. In improving space education and establishing a space economic
sector, we will increase the value adding industries that we in Africa can export to the world. NARSS,
NARSDA and SANSA all stress the capacity for self-reliance –to autonomously be able to conduct space
research, launch satellites and develop technology as independent nations. It is also essential to promote
public awareness of the advantages and opportunities that space can provide, so that as Africans, each of
us can understand and support these aspirations of official government space agencies and stakeholders.
Of course as Section 3.4 illustrates, we also need providing sufficient investment in education to prepare
current and future generations to be able to participate in a space economy otherwise we will continue to
have to depend on importing the skills, technology, resources and research of abroad for our existing and
future space related projects.
2.3 Study Motivation: Why this Paper is Necessary
Most research papers such as South African Cities Network and Department of Economic Development.
(April 2013) and Ansdell (August 2011) seek to justify their existence, effort and contribution through
literature reviews critiquing existing academic sources. This paper continues that there are few African
space economy studies apart from Gottschalk (July 2011) and Martinez (December 2008) for South Africa.
-most such as European Space Agency (March 2005) or Griffin (September 2007) for NASA are developed
world biased and neglect the possibilities for Africa/ the developing world. Too few African specific
achievements or case study examples exist to inspire future generations to seek space as a vocation. This
paper’s advantage is in illustrating to Africa, chances to capitalise on potential prospects of this emergent
sector, the projected spinoffs in space technology/ rates of returns on investment, scarcity of skills,
opportunity costs of importing and being dependent on others. Most studies also are country or sector
specific in highlighting achievements (European Space Agency March 2005) ignoring cross agency or
country space programme comparisons, whereas by including the achievements of SANSA, NASDA,
NARSS, ASAL and others, this hopes to convey that other African countries can benefit the historic
precedent set by these and projects. such as British Interplanetary Society (January – June 2014) and
China National Space Administration (December 2003) concentrate only on official government agencies,
whereas the private commercial sector can provide significant trade and investment opportunities.
The advantage of this research paper, for all its limitations, is to provide a theoretical prototype for
subsequent academic research, so that there is as significant body of academic and other received
literature sources for consultation and to utilise in Africa’s future. It aspires towards preparing existing and
future African space efforts to be enlightened into the possible ways through which they can benefit through
pursuing a space sector economy, to help clarify potential achievements and significant challenges that
exist. It hopes to have the research advantage to inspire space innovation and research, to identify if it is
sustainable or just another African fantasy and if we can achieve the same benefits as those abroad such
as Broniatowski, Faith and Sabathier (September 2006), “The Case for Managed International Cooperation in Space Exploration,” and Buckley, Johnson-Green, Piekutowski et al. February 2012 for
“International Space Station Benefits for Humanity.” It hopes to provide a sectoral analysis of various
space research, opportunities, policies etc favoured in Africa, to work towards a future where each African
space nation can benefit in an established Pan African Space Agency, programme and economy as well as
specific country agencies and programmes for those yet to be established. Investing in space has local
benefits as a catalyst of economic growth and development but also regional and international multipliers –
from increased international partnerships and cooperation –international treaties/ technology/ research etc
–investing in space is too expensive alone for just one or a few participants. It postulates that if the world
ignores Africa – its past, present legacies and future potential… the price of marginalising and sacrifice/
opportunity cost will be far too formidable (Human Sciences Research Council January 2009). Not just as
Africans but as people of Earth, we are all vulnerable/ face exposure to risk and uncertainty, especially if
we fail to cooperate in such an expensive and risk-based sector such as space. There also is much to
discover in scholarship with many resultant potential benefits as ISECG (September 2013) outlines beyond
those areas we have already contributed that contemporary and established literature so frequently
forgets….
2.4: Reviewing Existing Literature Limitations
This research paper aspires to emphasise the growing significance of the space sector to economic growth
and development prospects in Africa and its future potential. Despite few comparable African/ southern
hemisphere/ developing world, space agency examples, it seeks to provide a prototype for future academic
research and feasibility case study examples. It seeks to utilise primary rather than secondary data,
wherever possible. The weakness of many studies though, includes insufficient or incomplete data sources
for prime measurements of this economic impact and other potential costs/ benefits, especially where most
such as the Human Sciences Research Council (January 2009) concentrate on the aerospace industry,
refusing to differentiate space from aeronautics, complicating the isolation of employment, expenditure,
exports and other items. As 2.1 emphasised, no standard research methodology or approach exists that is
either Africa/ developing nation specific or globally applicable Most literature sources such as ISECG
(September 2013) and Griffin (September 2007) often concentrate on a scattering of assessment criteria,
indicators or ideas to reform, without a consistent, homogenous, set of standards globally comparable for
all economies and space sector activities across countries. This may impair attempts to compare
competitiveness and economic potential between African space agencies across countries or compared to
the performance of other sectors, an approach recommended. This led to calculating uncertainty –
especially for prototype indicators utilised and proposed in 2.1/ Chapter 3. Lacking sufficient data
estimates or a consistent approach complicates a conventional econometric/ economic impact analysis
over a set time period as proposed by NASA (February 2004). The obtaining of accurate, updated, recent
and relevant information and data to complete this study was hindered by issues facing difficulties in
access for an interview-based approach of key stakeholders – particularly for the private sector. Where
previous research and data existed, it involved extensive modifications to adapt it to this dissertation, while
statistics and projected information needed counter-verification. Continuing space developments and
modified forecasts/ statistics along with the changing pace of technological progress and research
innovation necessitated continuous, ongoing thorough revisions throughout, including estimates of
employment, expenditure, budgets and other potential variables/ timeframes
CHAPTER 3: THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT FOR AFRICA
3.1: An Overview of the Space Economy in Africa
How much is the cost to Africa of not investing in space?
Alternatively, how much is the global space economy worth?
While opportunity cost remains economically unquantifiable; in 2012 alone, the United Nations Office for
Outer Space Affairs estimated that the direct economic investment of global governments, commercial
companies, academic establishments and all other key stakeholders was worth $304,31 billion ($285,33
billion in 2011), with a growth rate globally of 6.7%, considerably higher than global GDP growth rates of
2.5-4%). That excludes all of the indirect economic benefits… However, countries in Africa received a small
fraction of this investment and benefit, in the absence of our own significant space economic sectors… This
is just part of the cost; Africa pays for not expanding its economy to include celestial horizons and the
myriad opportunities identified in 3.2-3.6… Most space economic direct growth does not derive from
government investments in space research on the Universe; for all that it advances scholarship. The same
UN Office estimated 74% derived from commercial applications from satellites… Besides, if our competitors
in BRICS increased their budgets (27%, 30% and 51% in 2013) can our economies also afford to remain
behind? But what does our existing African nation space economy sectors consist of? An overview of the
space economy in Africa is limited to the few countries with official space agencies and programmes
including Morocco, Algeria (ASAL), Tunisia (CNE), Ghana (recent Centre for Space Education) but
primarily concentrating on South Africa (SANSA), Nigeria (NARSDA) and Egypt (NARSS) and their
facilities. Mauritius and Madagascar are expanding space education training programmes, while Kenya is
considering its own space programme as are the 7 host countries of the Square Kilometre Array telescope
outlier satellite receptors outside South Africa and Australia (Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique, Ghana,
Malawi, Kenya and Madagascar), excluding those with specific observatories and satellite relay station
facilities. 15 countries cooperate on the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development in
Nairobi Kenya.
NARSS facilities include Cairo headquarters with NARSS Electro Optics Laboratory (NEOL) NARSS Super
Computer Unit (Blue-Gene), a GI@MED laboratory, a High-Precision and Numerical Modelling laboratory
(HPNML), and space control facility plus a satellite receiving station at Aswan (NARSS November 2014).
Internationally it cooperates with over 44 establishments in astronomical research including its Helwan
Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, which helped prove the existence of Pluto in the 1930’s . While
astronomy, physics, engineering and other space related material is taught in most South African
universities, only the University of Cape Town has a specialized astronomy department and space
laboratory, although Rhodes university has extensive historic links with radio astronomy telescopes and the
University of Stellenbosch was pivotal in designing the first South African launched satellite in 2007 along
with expertise in space law, engineering, physics and other related areas. From 28 September 2004,
Northwest University in Potchefstroom South Africa has partnered with Namibia to produce a set of cosmic
gamma ray detecting Cherenkov telescopes –The HESS (High Energy Stereoscopic System. South
Africa’s space satellite ground infrastructure is summarised in Tables 2. All current African satellites are
summarised in Table 3 below (Gottschalk 2011). Other specific South African facilities also include
HartRAO (Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomical Observatory) a 26 metre and 15 metre radio astronomy
telescopes for space geodesy and radio astronomy, observatories in Cape Town (The South African
Astronomical Observatory), Bloemfontein and Pretoria, SALT at Sutherland, the Hermanus Magnetic
Observatory, the present KAT 7 and MeerKAT Karoo Array Telescopes (See 3.2)
Table 2: Africa’s Satellite Ground Infrastructure. Gottschalk 2011Name and locality Country/Organisation Facilities6th of October City (near Cairo) Egypt, Nile-Sat Satellite Applications CentreAl-Hammam (near Alexanadria) Egypt, Nile-Sat Satellite Applications CentreBechar Algeria Sounding Rocket Launch SiteDouala Cameroun, RASCOM Satellite Applications CentreAl Gharyan Libya, RASCOM Satellite Applications CentreHammaguir Algeria Rocket launch siteHart RA0 (Hartebeeshoek) South Africa VLBI, geodesy, radio telescopeHigh Energy Stereoscopic System Namibia Gamma ray telescopeISSA –Houwteq (near Grabouw) South Africa Satellite testing facilityKapani Tonneo Democratic Republic of
CongoSounding rocket launch site, airfield
Kottamia Observatory Egypt 1.9 metre telecopeLuigi Broglio Space Centre (Malindi) Kenya Orbital launch pad and stationMauritius Radio Telescope Mauritius Radio telescopeOverberg Test Range (near Arniston) South Africa Orbital launch pad and stationSatellite Applications Centre South Africa Satellite ground station
Southern African Large Telescope South Africa 9 metre telescopeSquare Kilometre Array 8 countries (3.2) Radio telescopeSwakopmund Namibia Chinese satellite ground stationTawiwa Libya Sounding rocket launch site
Table 3: Summary of African satellites built, leased or sold. Gottschalk 2011Satellite Country or Organisation Year launchedAlsat-1 Algeria 2002Alsat-2A Algeria 2010EgyptSat-1 Egypt 2007New Dawn South Africa 2011NigComSat Nigeria 2007NigeriaSat-1 Nigeria 2001NigeriaSat-2 Nigeria 2011NigeriaSat-X Nigeria 2011Nilesat 101 Egypt 1998Nilesat 102 Egypt 2003Nilesat 103 Egypt 2005Nilesat 201 Egypt 2010RASCOM-QAF1 RQ1 RASCOM 2007RASCOM-QAF1R rQ1R RASCOM 2010Shuttleworth Astronaut South Africa 2002Sumbandila South Africa 2009Sunsat South Africa 1999
Since NASA’s Deep South Space Station in 1961, South Africa has hosted a Satellite Application Centre
also connected to orbiting neighbouring planet spacecraft to acquire information, tracking, and telemetry
and supervise operations (managed by CSIR –or the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
However, the USA did pressurise the apartheid government to dismantle its nuclear programme, its rocket
base and static test firing range among other facilities. Other underutilised hypothetical space infrastructure
includes the Institute of Satellite and Software Applications (ISSA) capable of providing a satellite
fabrication, maintenance and integration facility with its own thermal, anechoic and other testing facilities.
There is also the 43,000 hectare Denel Overberg Test Range used for aerospace flight tests with 3 polar
space launch pads and sophisticated radar detection, the site of South Africa’s former space launch
programme aborted by the USA in the 1990’s (1.2), the South African Air Force base engine testing
facilities in Waterkloof Pretoria, its Overberg Test Flight and Development Centre with 3115 metre runway
and the underutilised 4. 9 kilometre Upington airport runway (Gottschalk 2011). The South African space
industry consists of many stakeholders that other African countries could endorse and establish in order to
further facilitate the future of space as the destiny of this continent. For example these include the South
African Council for Space Affairs along with the nongovernmental, the South African Space Association and
the Foundation for Space Development to create lobbying groups for advancing space, establishing space
research partnerships, information and networking opportunities between students/ universities,
commercial enterprises, emerging entrepreneurs, various government agencies, international organisations
and the public community. The Ethiopian Space Science Society is another demonstration of increasing
interest in space from African countries that lack their own space agency as is the privately funded
Ugandan Space Research programme.
Commercial South African space companies include Space Commercial Services, New Space Systems
and Space Advisory Company each offering space/satellite engineering, computer programming, space
etc) and Marcom Aeronautics and Space aiming to specialise in space launch and orbiting payload release
vehicles. Sunspace affiliated to the University of Stellenbosch was responsible for South Africa’s first
independently manufactured, designed and launched satellite. These indigenous examples in addition to
the fact that Ethan Musk, the founder of US based commercial space tourism Space X is South African
show that African companies and individuals, along with our scientists and other space graduates are just
as capable of competing and contributing globally to the space sector. Our first African astronaut, the
information technology billionaire Mark Shuttleworth, also came from South Africa. There is therefore
nothing theoretically wrong with African countries establishing their own space programmes, economies
and destinies, rather than just relying on those not of our continent given the potential economic benefit of
improving the balance of payments, local GDP and export revenue derived foreign exchange revenue
along others.
3.2: Projects
SKA (Square Kilometre Array)
The world’s largest radio telescope will be mainly based in the Astronomy Reserve of South Africa’s
Northern Cape province but will consist of over 30,000 dishes covering over 1000,000 kilometres in 8
African countries and outliers in Australia capable of identifying waves and objects billions of light years
away, the most expensive, largest scientific project that currently exists in the world, covering a far greater
surface area and more scientists than even the Large Hadron Collider particle accelerator at CERN
Switzerland. An international project involving 13 establishments this demonstrates Africa’s scientific
potential and how hosting projects and other opportunities in the space sector, in addition to achieving our
own autonomous local space economy can be a reality for the future of African development. Wild in
Searching African Skies extensively chronicles the background and rationale behind hosting and supporting
SKA compared to our Australia rival competitor, to work towards answering the mysteries of the Universe
and contribute to scientific progress, to serve as a status symbol of prestige, to further attract researchers,
and capital investment from abroad, to empower a new generation of emerging African students and
entrepreneurs, to enhance local scientific and host community infrastructure, promote astro-tourism,
facilitate local industry, improve education, technological exports and other advantages of hosting it. This
needs to be offset against the R2 billion South Africa paid for the competitive initial bid opportunity cost of
taxpayer revenue and contribution to funding and its share of the joint UK-SA-New Zealand-Poland-US-
India-Germany joint funding and research partnership consortium operating costs estimated at over R500
million or four times the official budget allocation to its specialised space agency SANSA. (SANSA
February 2014).
MeerKAT
MeerKAT active for 3 years since 2011, launched on 27 March 2014 is based near Carnarvon in the
Northern Cape Astronomy Reserve. Its mere presence with 19.5 metre high, 42 ton antennae towers
looming over the site has according to the SKA website enriched Africa through hosting over 500
international astronomers. As a 64 dish pathfinder telescope, it will be the first SKA test phase, its
components mostly tested by the previous KAT 7 dish telescope (Tauri Group October 2011). In addition,
in the future both South Africa and other African countries are working towards the VLBI or Very Large
Baseline Interferometry project network initiative connecting many formerly decommissioned telescopes
across Southern Africa up to Ghana. Africa’s expansion of celestial horizons also includes the scientific,
economic and international relations improving advantages of increased international partnerships being
created through Africa’s potential prospects in the emergent space sector. The International Astronomical
Union has sought to facilitate this through a specific research facility and actual Office of Astronomy for
Development in cooperation with the South African National Research Foundation since April 2011, to
promote joint research and training initiatives whilst promoting awareness of space among student and
community education outreach programmes, to encourage Africans to believe in space exploration and a
space economy as a destiny.
SALT
If we in Africa are to believe in the potential of the space economy as the future, space projects such as the
Southern African Large Telescope or SALT, the most significant Southern Hemisphere optical telescope
with a main 11 metre mirror to enhance exposure of celestial motion, illustrate the reality of that future in
transforming the economic prospects of Africa, diversifying between primarily exporting unskilled labour
and natural resources to the outside world. They not only provide economic activity during construction (for
which South Africa according to Gottschalk (August 2011) provided at least 30 percent of the initial capital)
and basic maintenance but their prime value is in stimulating a value added domestic rather than foreign
space industry, while most economic sectors benefit from the increase in skills, research and technology
obtained. For example, this project and the SKA follow the precedent of KAT and MeerKAT which
according to SANSA (August 2014), which subcontracted over 75 percent of the equipment, software and
technological components used to assemble the project from South African industrial companies such as
Gauteng province centred Efficient Engineering (pedestals and yolks), Tricom Structures (backup) and
Titan Slow Rings (azimuth bearings), only importing those few crucial parts that cannot be fabricated
domestically.
SALT was completed and tested between 2005 -2011 and now costs an annual R20 million to operate,
therefore providing a consistent source of revenue to support a historically deprived economic hinterland
with few alternative development prospects through remote transport connections, low educated workforce,
an arid climate reducing the prospects for sustainable labour intensive agriculture, limited game for reserve
tourism opportunities, few natural resources for industry or mining and a low population density to support
significant commercial prospects. Its prime function is spectroscopy (Wild 2012) or the capacity to identify
the chemical composition, formation and reaction of celestial entities millions of light years away, with the
capacity to record, analyse, capture photographs and even film these phenomena via photometry. Based in
Sutherland, the Northern Cape South Africa to export the large space, remote location, low population
density, clear aether and pollution/ limited communication network interference as geographical advantages
along with unique legislative protection of the 2007 South African Astronomical Geographic Advantage Act,
which apart from the Sol Plaatje municipality (Upington) declares the entire province as a priority astronomy
reserve, unlike any other country on Earth, to further emphasise the possibilities of the space industry for
Africa. Therefore, this paper proposes the perfect suitability of the province for scientific research –
especially astronomical and related tourism as Sections 3.3 and 3.4 will further elaborate to further justify
the economic opportunities that the emergent space sector can provide for sustainable growth and
development for Africa, especially for many countries with similar advantages such as Namibia, Botswana,
Mozambique, Zambia, Malawi, Chad, Libya, Ethiopia and others
3.3: Employment and Expenditure
Figure 2: United Kingdom Space Economy Model Space Agency November 2013.
Few other sectors provide such catalysts to potential economic growth and development on a globally
environmentally and employment sustainable basis, as that of the space economic sector both in Africa and
globally. Figure 2 above illustrates the upstream (producer) and downstream (end user or consumer)
effects that investing in satellite operations provides for the UK economy. For example according to Grant
(2012) and the UK Space Society (November 2013), the impact of satellites alone contributed over eight
billion pounds to the local economy, primarily from increased demand in satellite information, broadcasting
and telecommunication. This excludes the potential impact of research and technology from consultancy
work and universities of academics as outlined in 3.6 and 3.7 for certain African space agencies. However,
as African’s if we are to make the most of a formalised, funded space agency and programme, along with
being able to generate a space economy, it is evident that human capital has to be invested in… The most
technologically sophisticated economy in Africa –South Africa has a significant shortage of engineers and
scientists ranking 111 out of 142 according to South Africa’s Engineering Committee, primarily due to poor
state school sector quality mathematics and scientific education training. It has few to spare for the space
sector at present. To continue this paper’s aim of advocating a space economy as one of the next
economic frontiers for us as Africans to individually navigate ourselves, Table 4 below demonstrates
several of the numerous space sector opportunities that exist, if we as Africans are prepared to expand our
celestial horizons. If we want to venture into space, if we seek to profit and benefit from the Universe… we
need to invest in these vocational prospects. Only then can we dream of competing internationally and
working towards solving our many of our problems through space…
Table 4: African Space Sector Economic, Vocational Opportunities.Satellite Climate change, agriculture, planningAcademic/ Space Scientists, health professionals, climate change specialists,
astronomers, designers, academics…. Perhaps even astronautsAdministrative Clerical, human resources, legal, financial –accountants,
auditors, business development, managerial and supervisors, production and logistical planning, sale, purchase, support
Industrial Engineering –electric, electronic, astronautical, computing, civil, mechanical, industrial, production, logistics and aerospace engineers, artisans (machinists) and technicians, tool and die makers, antennae and other equipment repair, fabrication, and moulding infrastructure and maintenance, beneficiation and value adding, light and heavy industry, plant operators and assemblers, quality control and safety inspectors
Commercial Insurance and financial services, supplies/ logistics/ transport, marketing and distribution, real estate, human resources management, health and safety, design training, entrepreneurs,
Information/ Technology software and hardware engineering, repairs, communicationGeo-informatics, surveying and image processing Geology, prospecting surveyorsTourism Astronomy visits, museums, accommodation, restaurants, tours,Utilities High fibre IT cables, electricity, water, sewerage and garbage
disposal
These represent scarce skills according to SAASTA (February 2014), demonstrating the potential
employment chances that could be directly and indirectly sustained if African countries were to turn towards
embracing their own local/ regional space sector, modelled on the success of South Africa. Calculating the
direct and indirect employment of the jobs provided above and the related expenditure they derive as
income from the space sector, would help to provide a more significant and accurate figure than the 180-
200 that the Tauri Group estimated were employed in the South African space industry, excluding others
dependent on space, through official space agencies, projects such as the SKA, SALT and MeerKAT,
satellites, universities, advocacy groups and all those who directly or indirectly rely on satellites and other
applications of space research and technology. For example Sun-Space alone supported at least 90 jobs in
2014 in the private sector, while others such as Denel Dynamics do not specifically differ between space
and aeronautics –broadly classifying their over 800 direct employees. For other African countries, in the
absence of previous research, data estimates for direct space sector employment are related to the few
official African space agency examples that they provide. NARSS estimate around 80 scientists , 100
professionals including engineers and at least 200 clerical/ administrative support staff –just for the official
agency. Then there is the potential employment and other prospects offered by investing in future human
capital formation through bursaries and research grants –especially in training engineers, technicians,
artisans, scientists, educators, journalists, entrepreneurs –and to a lesser degree the public. Between
2005-2014, the African SKA Human Capital Development Programme from the 7 countries (including
South Africa) awarded nearly 600 student grants along with providing a technician training programme to
ensure local Southern Africans could directly benefit further rather than relying on importing expensive
expatriates (as frequently recommended by donor aid agencies for technical advice). The quality of student/
academic prospective innovation and research is further assisted by a specific project agreement for the
SKA, SALT, MeerKAT and Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomical Observatory among other South African
space developments is to devote a minimal 20% of total operating time available towards students of local
schools, colleges and universities for their projects.
There are a significant number of economic opportunities that this paper proposes that countries in Africa
could enjoy significant rates of return on investment if they were to commit scarce finite budgetary
resources and inspire foreign revenue, far more than the historically proposed Kaldor industrialisation
model or aid donor model currently favoured by orthodox economist exponents. For example according to
SANSA in its August 2014 report alone, the direct economic benefit of hosting our own satellites rather than
importing it from foreigners, contributed R502 million in 2014 just from GPS technology applications. South
African Department of Trade and Industry exports of spacecraft, staellites and space related products
increased from R0.1 billion in 2006 to over R1.7 billion in value (factoring in the value of space projects,
information and technology) in 2014. Those countries with their own satellite technology have the potential
to expand telecommunication, broadcasting, meteorology, disaster monitoring, agricultural and mineral
surveying and other uses across Africa, rather than relying on importing it from non-African countries.
Simply consider the economic benefits to the host economy of providing these essential services –even in
information and simple broadcasting –especially for the commercial space sector. For example the South
Africa satellite information technology provider Sentech received R200 million from the government
Department of Communication for broadcasting the 2010 FIFA Football World Cup (Tauri Group August
2011), stimulating local employment and expenditure far more rather than relying on a foreign provider.
Then there is the direct economic Keynesian multiplier public sector capital injection impact of the R647
million dedicated to MeerKAT, the R20 million devoted to SALT in 2014, the revenue associated with the
ongoing SKA project and others. For a meagre R118 million Parliamentary funding allocation to SANSA
(SANSA August 2014) for 2014/ 2015, (As Table 5 demonstrates, the majority of revenue being derived
from commercial applications, intellectual and data property rights and research grants/ endowments locally
and from abroad) SANSA manages to provide research and scholarship support, operate satellites,
maintain significant space facilities including observatories, support a Space Engineering, Space
Operations, Space Science and Earth Observation Directorates, a Corporate Office, pay salaries and
provide technical equipment, and help contribute a significant proportion of the estimated direct South
African economic contribution of space, worth over R1.7 billion of exports (regardless of the value of
research and technology) to the local economy. Few other budgetary allocations provide such a net
economic contribution as a rate of investment return given direct SANSA expenditure of R332,179 million
allocated according to Table 6 (Table 5 denoting other revenue sources).
Table 5 South Africa National Space Agency Source of Funding. SANSA March 2014.
Research/ Scholarship (3.7),Technological See 3.6 –satellites –telecommunication, broadcasting, navigationSocial – Health –disease and epidemics, Crime, safety, lower vices,Protection and Adaptation Security –defence of satellite surveillance and tracking/ monitoring meteorology/
reducing pollution, observation, climate change and management of natural resources, including biodiversity, greenhouse gas emission monitoring, averting poaching
Psychological Inspiration, social inclusion and patriotism, morale and spirit –possible increased productivity –less dependence
Human capital formation/ education Vocational opportunities, training, increased productivity and employability skillsReputational/ Diplomatic Increased international cooperation –peace and diplomacy
Table 7 provides more advantages of a space research programme. Aside from the aforementioned macro
and microeconomic opportunities which should ultimately create far less economic dependence from the
world as we Africans’ manufacture our own space facilities, satellites, equipment and technology, as we
host our own entrepreneurs, train our own graduates, increasing exports, while reducing imports to improve
the balance of payments and terms of trade, there are other research advantages (3.7). There is also the
potential long-term economic consequence through a space sector economy’s capability to improve
education and other means to train human capital formation. Table 7 also outlines potential environmental
advantages for Africa in pursuing a space sector economy first in the necessary provision of declaring
astronomy reserves through legal protection. Space satellites, observatories and projects such as the
telescopes of MeerKAT, SALT, SKA and VBLI function best with clear aether or no pollution and produce
few externality costs, like investing in the purely sustainable green and maritime economic sector compared
to the often proposed orthodox Kaldor and Marxian alternative of industrialisation for many emerging
African economies. As 3.5 will further elaborate satellites can also provide significant environmental
benefits in spotting poachers, biodiversity, species, natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions
monitoring, climate change and meteorology, providing significant planning, information and forewarning
strategic advantages to those who invest in space.
Perhaps there are other social advantages to African and other nations in choosing to develop the space
economic sector, perhaps these might extend to even the reduction of crime/ mental health/ vices –
substance abuse… unconsidered from an improvement in vocational prospects, in dreaming of
opportunities and a more brilliant future… but certainly improvements in controlling epidemics and
improving healthcare through tele-medicine and technological improvements exist as 3.5 and 3.6 seek to
enlighten. The role of space in improving diplomacy is commonly marginalised by as Broniatowski, Faith
and Sabathier (September 2006), state in “The Case for Managed International Cooperation in Space
Exploration.” Even during the Cold War, a Pax Galactica has prevailed for over fifty years, with humans
voluntarily agreeing to peaceful uses of space/ satellite technology etc –to at least restrict war to Earth.
Realising how expensive, how vulnerable and how risk involved, pursuing space exploration, technology
and economy actually is –too much for any single nation on Earth to offer… even nations such as the USA
and Russia during the Cold War, found the need for cooperation. Therefore, embracing space may help to
reduce the probability of conflict and strife/ improving diplomatic relations and nation’s reputations for those
in Africa as well –through increased partnerships and cooperation.
Then there is also the psychological effect that hosting a space sector economy could mean… as Elwaer
(April 2013) and Martinez December 2008 postulate. For decades, we in Africa have faced an inferiority
complex based on external prejudices –that we in Africa are regressive –that we will never progress and
have few significant achievements of our own –or that we can offer to the world, other than natural
resources, an exodus of labour and capital outflows to international banks and property purchases… in the
traditional Fisher Clarke Thesis developmental model. ere remains the preconception that we in Africa are
and remain incapable of our own economic destiny –that we will remain economically subservient, in a self-
perpetuating poverty trap model, an erroneous hypothesis this paper seeks to dissuade and eradicate as
far as possible through stating how capable we as Africans have been, that we as Africans are… and that
we can be… It shows how if we put our minds to it, we can accomplish anything… After all, the spirit that
we as Africa are capable of these grand projects, that we in South Africa defeated Australia for the SKA
and other projects are incalculable. Economists have yet to quantify the hypothetical economic benefit that
can be measured through increased spirit –in terms of additional opportunities from increased reputation…
-the opportunity costs foregone of alternative investments, increases in patents, innovation, research
output, labour productivity, capital injections from abroad… -mostly linked to psychological expectations but
this paper and those such as the UK Space Agency (October 2012) seek to imply. Humans need
achievements and we in Africa are no different –we in Africa need physical examples of the spirit of the
African Renaissance –to take pride in our natural, cultural and historic heritage but also our scientific.
Space offers so much more than just to scientifically progress, it can provide our communities, people,
nations and world the chance to exercise our desire for ambitions, our dreams, the desire for ambition, to
discover, to reach our potential and know that we are capable of achievement, something that can
potentially unite us, discover our talents to find out what else is out there… to challenge life, to test our
limits and to know our true potential.
3.5 Technology:
In expanding our celestial horizons, this paper argues the potential economic and other benefits of
endorsing satellite and other space related technology to empower a future of sustainable economic, social
and environmental development for any individual African nation/ sector, as well as global benefits to other
countries from this convergence growth. To realise its potential benefits, one only has to conceive the
developed world/ globalisation without many of the products, services and technology that takes for
granted…What would life be like without the direct and indirect offerings of the space economy such as
satellites? Would we seek to regress to it? The role of satellites in facilitating the progress of the world’s
more advanced economies is self-evident, especially through providing information, early warning,
facilitating communication, broadcasting, environmental studies and land use, aviation and aerial
and others. The Tauri Group (October 2011) provides the example of the 2011 launched New Dawn
Satellite financed by South Africans to provide higher speed Internet broadband. The benefits to a host
nation, of increased technological, information and business opportunities through increased
communication capacity –especially through the Internet, are immeasurable, providing the most visible
example of how the space sector economy not only can assist virtually every economic sector… in an age
of ever-increasing globalised access –it is becoming more and more necessary. If it works for developed
nations, it can work for the existing African space sector economy along with those for the future to respond
to specific priorities, problems and challenges… promoting trade and investment opportunities. Significantly
more nations in Africa have the potential to operate its own satellite, telescopes and basic space sector,
than just those few identified in Tables 2 and 3.
Ways in which satellites have been pragmatically adapted to resolve problems include those for Egypt’s
NARSS:
I: to assess the initial impact of drifting sands and desertification upon local development and agriculture in northwest Sinai
II: To identify geological survey prospects in the west Nile Delta area
III: To identify prospective archaeological sites for excavations in Dahshur
IV: The ALAMIM project to observe the health and development of Lake Mariout’s ecosystem in Alexandria along with similar investigations for the coral reefs and mangroves of the Hurghada Red Sea area/ El Dabaa coastal erosion.
V: Similarly, this could be used to assess the ecological/ other potential impacts to cultivate African aquaculture as for NARSS in Egypt or the sustainability of ecotourism.
VI: It can assist in providing an aerial overview for transport and other economic development infrastructure as in helping to construct and prepare the Nile Delta Regional Ring Road.
VII: To identify water and other scarce resources to prepare for the future.
ASAL –or the Algerian Space Agency focus on similar roles –especially urban and spatial development
planning through their ALSAT 1 and 2 satellites, along with significant data processing and information
retrieval, expensive to procure from foreign imports. ASAL’s official website proclaims during 2012-2014,
ASAL benefitted from over 30,000 distinctive images. In addition, with few forests, they particularly
cooperate with government agencies to counter human and natural disasters such as land, air and marine
pollution, forest fires, the flooding of El Bayadh (October 2011) and El Tarf (February 2012) among others,
plagues of locusts and the threat of ever multiplying pace of desertification (exclosure, dune fixation ...).
One prime concern with ASAL, (similarly shared by NARSDA for Nigeria, NARSS and SANSA, is that of
self-sufficiency and independence). Although ALSAT 1 was designed by the British firm Surrey Space
Technology and launched from India, Algeria sought to make subsequent satellites capable of being
produced domestically through 11 locals trained in skills and technological capacity (Tauri Group October
2011). NARSDA have primarily concentrated on land use surveying for Nigeria-Sat I, monitoring French
farmland along with mapping Australia, coastal Vietnam, the Amazon river basin and the countries of the
European Union (Boroffice December 2008). However, for humanitarian reasons, they also concentrate
significantly on responding to human and natural disasters/ epidemics, providing free images/ data to
afflicted nations and nongovernmental organisations –therefore helping even the more developed parts of
the world against climatic uncertainty and other global risks such as Hurricane Katrina on Louisiana in the
USA and the Asian Tsunami catastrophe. They also have sought to reduce gully erosion in Southeast
Nigeria, preserve biodiversity Their commercial communications satellite NigComSat-1 focuses on
providing electronic forms of government functions and services, -especially for rural areas such as tele-
education, tele-medicine, tele-conferencing, telephony and electronic commerce (NARSDA website
September 2014) along with providing cost-effective information for governments to improve service
delivery and governance.
Table 8: SANSA Scheduled Clients (SANSA August 2014)
There are many other potential benefits offered by satellite technology that South Africa’s SANSA has
discovered, including the provision of satellite launch, information, communication, mission control and
orbital support services to the clients in Table 8 above, using commercial applications to help finance
research, technology and using satellites for expanding development. They help to support other nations
with and without space satellite/ mission capability including NASA and Indian Space Research
Organisation Mars missions, and NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2, for SANSA (SANSA August
2014). The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (August 2011) specifically identified the need for
space agencies to provide satellites to investigate disasters, to aid in the management of natural/ human
catastrophes –forecasting, monitoring, assessment and mitigation, to protect against space weather, global
health and infectious diseases epidemics (such as the spread of vegetation for mosquitos and malaria) and
other emergencies. However they could also assist African governments in empowering service delivery
and governance, (as SANSA did in 2013 with 16840 images of data submitted) especially those with few
resources/ weak enforcement capacity for law enforcement, anti-poaching or anti-smuggling, tax and
census surveys, to promote irrigation, identify livestock and other agricultural purposes, to locate mineral
and oil resources, to pinpoint navigation and even air, road and sea transport logistics and traffic control
management, providing information and images to all prime affected stakeholders/ citizens.
Figure IV: Earth Nations with Global Satellite Capacity (Elwaer April 2013)
Figure V: Review of possible impacts derived from investments in a space programme. SANSA August
2014.
Regionally, apart from the conceptual designs for a Pan African Space Agency under negotiation, the future
of pan-African cooperation in research and technology for 45 African countries inaugurated the Regional
African Satellite Communication Organisation (RASCOM) in 1992 for satellite telecommunication and
broadcasting services, across over 150,000 scattered villages, to enable rural African areas to share the
benefits of global satellite technology with a secretariat in Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire), plus operation centres in
Gharyan (Libya) and Douala (Cameroon). Its first satellite was launched in 2010 –RASCOM-QAFIR. Then
there is the often unconsidered impact of technology devised for space agencies, their missions and
specific projects but may have commercial and other opportunities to assist humanity, for example through
an improved quality of life/ living standards. Temporary and permanent impacts are partially illustrated
through Figure V above. Temporary impacts are restricted to those economic factors, i.e. the impact of
etc incurred during initial construction/ manufacture/ installation/ development etc. Permanent impacts as
Figure V emphasises, include cost avoidances… such as lives/ infrastructure saved from early satellite
warnings of natural disasters such as droughts, storm damages etc or improving crop yields from reducing
the significant uncertainty of meteorological elements.
Economically, these lack a homogenous research methodology approach, for what is the value of a human
or any other animal’s life if saved? What is the economic or other contribution compared to the health/
environmental/ economic cost of that person? Permanent impacts also include permanently sustainable
national and local economic growth, productivity and efficiency gains, innovations in technology and other
products/ services developed. An example included South Africa’s first high frequency nanosatellite
ZACUBE-1 –weighing 1.3 kilograms and 10 cubic centimetres in diameter and a prototype plasma based
Vacuum Arc satellite thruster –to orientate satellites into position (SANSA August 2013). For example for
the MEERKAT and SKA, this required one-piece reflectors, single pixel wideband receivers, and cryogenic
systems (Wild 2012) to be created but if these can be locally fabricated and alternative usages found –
perhaps in communication, information processing, broadcasting or elsewhere, then this further helps to
justify the initial approach to specifically fund a space research programme. This would enable more and
more African nations to be able to utilise satellite technology so that they could join the ever-increasing
global network of nations in Figure IV that have attempted or succeeded in satellite technology applications,
to advance their nations, enhancing long term welfare, health, safety and sustainable growth and minimal
externality cost, instead of being consigned to a recurring poverty trap cycle.
3.6: Research
Apart from the other significant advantages that this paper proposes, that exist for the economic future for
African nations who invest in a space sector economy, agency and specific space programme, this section
advocates that if we as Africans were to coordinate our space policy/ programmes/ technology/ economy/
agencies, through joint international cooperation on research, we as African’s could not only progress our
individual nations but we would be able to achieve a true Continental African Renaissance. For example,
ASAL, NARSDA, SANSA, CNE, NARSS and the few other existing space agencies are already helping
Africa to benefit from research, skills and technological transfers with NASA, ROSCOSMOS, the Indian
Space Organisation, CNSA, the ESA, JAXA and other leading agencies. Our projects, specialised endowed
university research Chairs and facilities are even encouraging the immigration of eminent space sector
stakeholders, in contrast to the conventional “brain drain” of highly educated African professional labour
abroad. This section seeks to illuminate certain research discoveries that existing African space sector
academics have independently discovered; some practical research applications of their discoveries and
emphasise how existing space agencies have further contributed towards research and development, to
inspire future generations of Africans, that our future can be in space and that we are also capable of
contributing. For example, in June 2014, a South African research team led by Dr Bernie Fanaroff (SKA
website November 2014) pinpointed a rare, supermassive, triple Black Hole.
Table 9: SANSA Earth Observations Directorate Research Benefits. SANSA August 2014.
Strategic Objective 1: Offer efficient EO service for national/international benefits and a sustained environment
Indicator Description Estimate 2012/2013
Target2013/2014
Actual2013/2014
Reason for Variance
No of images acquired and archived 4000 4000 39,928 Over performance due to data
acquired from additional sensors
No of images distributed 42,000 44,000 100,574 Over performance due to spikes
from distribution of the Mosaic
Strategic Objective 2: Conduct cutting edge research, development and innovation
No of images distributed for research 16,000 17,000 56,008 Over performance due to spikes
from distribution of the Fundisa
disks
No of technical reports and research publications
10 10 20 Target exceeded –due to
additional reports from Human
settlements/EO projects
Strategic Objective 3: Development of human capital in space science and space advancement
No of short courses conducted 2 2 7 Target exceeded due to higher demand for EO related courses
No of students/interns supported/trained 6 6 31 Additional funding for bursaries was allocated
No of learners reached by direct and specific engagement
N/A 2870 4000 Target exceeded due to additional outreach work undertaken
Strategic Objective 4: Provide services that stimulate industry growth and participation in EO activitiesNo of joint and outsourced projects within the industry
2 2 4 Active engagement with the online EO catalogue, Landsat companies
Strategic Objective 5:No of multinational projects within the industry
2 2 3
Table 10: SANSA Space Operations Directorate Research Benefits. SANSA August 2014.Indicator Description Estimate
2012/2013Target2013/2014
Actual2013/2014
Strategic Objective 1: Offer efficient, cost efficient and globally competitive applications with social benefits and world markets
Success rate of 95% of all passes taken for Earth observation
95% 95% 95%
No of mission launches supported and in orbit tests undertaken
24 24 24
Strategic Objective 2: Focussed and needs driven research/ development in key areasNo of formal R/D reports and publications 3 3 4Strategic Objective 3: Focused human capital development in space operations/applicationNo of students/interns supported/trained 6 7 14
For South Africa, SANSA’s research benefits to the local and international economy are substantially higher
than the R118 million (SANSA August 2014 of government taxpayer funding that it costs. While this
research paper recognises the lack of empirical objectivity that can be used to pinpoint the economic value
of research to its host economy, it proposes to identify the quantative aspects of those benefits as a means
of illuminating key space sector possible stakeholders, including academics, the state, the commercial
sector and the community, as a partial extent to which space potentially enriches their lives and
substantially enriches the world. It proposes to measure the value of research output as proxies for this
through the number of images and other data produced, the number of publications, the number of
students each supports directly, along with courses and projects via Tables 9 and 10 above and Tables 11
below for the main space sector research directorates of Africa’s most significant official space sector
agency –SANSA for South Africa. For example, Table 9 illustrates the net contribution of SANSA to South
Africa’s economic development in earth observation including 100574 images (from a target of 44000), 20
technical reports, 31 students, 7 short courses, 3 international projects and 4 local industry projects. They
also introduced 4870 youths to space as a potential vocational future and way of benefitting the nation.
Table 10’s Space Operations Directorate provided four research reports, sponsored 14 students and 24
mission/ sub-orbital test flight operations. Table 11’s Space Science Directorate provided the research
benefits of 1.14 terabytes worth of data in 2013/ 2014, an average of 2.79 ISI publications per researcher
per year (above the South African research average of 1.5), sponsored 51 students and 13 short courses.
Table 12’s Space Engineering Directorate provided direct support for 34 jobs and 9 students in the satellite
project it is assembling. The economic multiplier effects of this research primarily stimulate the local and
international economy via the projected impacts/ consequences outlined in 3.2-3.5 and 3.7, to support the
aspired functions of space agencies outlined in 2.1/ 3.1. above.
Table 11: SANSA Space Science Directorate Research Benefits. SANSA August 2014.
Strategic Objective 1: Offer state of the art research and applied science/technology platform and services
Indicator Description Estimate 2012/2013
Target2013/2014
Actual2013/2014
Reason for Variance
No of jobs directly supported by the satellite engineering programme
1TB 1.5TB 1.14 TB Underperformance due to data
acquisition challenges at various
stations
Strategic Objective 2: Conduct cutting edge research, development and innovation
No of ISI publications per researcher
2 2 2.79 Target exceeded –some
publications completed last year,
published this year
Strategic Objective 3: Development of human capital in space science and space advancement
No of short courses conducted 8 8 13 The South African Air Force (SAAF) requested more than the usual number of short courses (10) and 3 SRA provided
No of students/interns supported/trained
25 25 51
Table 12. SANSA Space Engineering Directorate Research Benefits. SANSA August 2014.Strategic Objective 1: Offer state of the art satellite assembly, integration and testing platform and servicesIndicator Description Estimate
2012/2013Target2013/2014
Actual2013/2014
Reason for Variance
No of jobs directly supported by the satellite engineering programme
N/A 30 34 Target achieved due to preserving jobs throughout the year
Strategic Objective 2: Technical coordination of satellite system/ subsystem development for SANSANo of national satellite projects 1 1 1 EO-SAT1 project continuesNo of students/interns supported/trained
N/A 5 9
Other SANSA benefits the agency identified included the following ways to assist the South African
government in 2013/ 2014.
Supporting municipalities to identify suitable sites for residential and infrastructure planning. A Database of Informal Settlement and Environmental Conditional Assessment considering the
increasing pace of urbanisation –and related environmental/ social/ economic/ planning costs Water resource management and monitoring water pollution SPOT 6 data used to support farmers and agricultural development Assess mining potential Forestry Wetlands and ecosystems monitoring Magnetic compass training for the South African Airforce Demagnetising South African Navy vessels Improving GPS satellite navigation SQUID (Superconducting Quantum Interference Device) to provide an early warning and monitoring
system for space weather and Earth geomagnetic field effects such as earthquakes.
SANSA and the research capabilities offered by South Africa’s hosting of satellites, the SKA, SALT, VLBI,
MeerKAT and other space sector project infrastructure have also significantly contributed to global
challenges such as the threat of space weather, for which this agency provides the only specialised space
weather research centre in the entire continent of Africa… and one of the very few in the Southern
hemisphere. How can we as humans place an economic price or cost-appraise the value of survival? We in
Africa are just as exposed to the potentially hazardous effects of space weather –especially from incoming
solar radiation and solar flares/ as well as other celestial objects such as asteroids and meteorites. The
difference is that the developed world can prepare itself more through the intelligence of dedicated space
weather researchers, facilities and equipment… We are virtually dependent upon the developed world…
Yet, globally we are all vulnerable to the risk that an incoming object could cause the extinction of our
species –or significantly obliterate a part of our state. Specific 2014 projects identified include (SANSA
August 2014) Ionospheric dynamics and scintillation for navigation and radio communications,
Geomagnetic field behaviour in the South Atlantic magnetic anomaly, radiation belt particle injection and
loss mechanisms, high and low energy particle precipitation effects in the atmosphere along with
mesospheric ozone response to high energy particle precipitation. South Africa has also utilised space
scientific information to substantially contribute towards research including the first African Ionospheric
Map, and SNIGGER (South African Ionospheric, Geophysics and Geomagnetic Experimental Resource
especially connected to the 16 country membership of the, global, high frequency SuperDARN radar
network and radio laboratory at South Africa’s SANAE IV Antarctica research base, coasting R3.5 million,
including conjugate mapping of electrical fields through the plasmaphere, magnetosphere, large-scale ULF
magnetic pulsations, ionospheric plasma convection studies of energy transport and tail reconnection,
structure, radar riometry of high-energy particle precipitation, thermospheric neutral density long term trend,
plasma density and conductivity remote sensing. These all seek to provide practical solutions to the
questions of: How does the space environment influence our lives, economies and activities? How can we improve our resilience and survival? How can we ultimately benefit? What more can we find out about the Universe?3.7: Future Trade and Investment Opportunities For Africa
As this paper has sought to clarify, expanding our celestial horizons through the development of a specific
space sector economy, can provide significant future economic opportunities –especially in trade and
investment, if African stakeholders and the community were to work towards establishing and supporting a
space sector economy, through investment in a specialised space agency, space programme, human
capital formation in training potential graduates –especially scientists, engineers, artisans and
entrepreneurs (3.2). Governments could further support the development of this sector through seeking to
develop their own satellites, host/ operate their own space laboratories, observatories, weather centres,
satellites and other essential infrastructure or significantly expand their existing space infrastructure. They
could reduce the bureaucracy involved in establishing the space sector –especially emerging businesses
and also modifying the tax and tariff structure through reductions/ productivity reward incentives to favour
the development of space economy, providing specialised priorities in scarce foreign exchange, reduced
customs procedures, research, development and local export incentives, government loans or other forms
of state support whilst dissuading imports to encourage self-sufficiency in space applications, especially
that from satellite technology. Joint marketing and information initiatives would especially assist those
countries to pool resources in financing space activities –where one country alone such as Liberia, Gambia,
Senegal or Sierra Leone cannot afford it, several might in joint partnership. Until infant industries are
capable of competing in globalised industries, they may require protectionist measures such as export
subsidies or import tariffs for a set time period, with any fiscal support, repayable with interest to promote
the incentive of efficiency and growth. Unlike conventional Kaldor –Lewis models of growth, which favour
industrialisation as the mechanism to sustainable economic growth and development, whilst simultaneously
absorbing surplus unskilled labour from rural areas, this paper recognises that in an increasingly globalised
world, the true economic trade and investment opportunities for Africa lie in achieving initial autarchy or
import substitution through investing in a space sector economy (among others) before eventually
developing sufficient capacity for exports, primarily in the service/ technology/ research/ space product
sector, which offer higher value adding exports, than conventional bulk commodities and unskilled surplus
labour.
To establish a space economy, basic inputs are best locally fabricated to derive additional benefits. South
Africa with its history of autarchy during apartheid and its aerospace industry with Denel/ Armscor etc is
perhaps more qualified than many other African countries –in tools, steel, electronics and information
technology and other components the space economy may require (Human Sciences Research Council
January 2009). Along with other existing African space industry participants, South Africa could perhaps
collaborate in establishing a mutually profitable space economy through trade/ skills/ technology/ education/
finance/ space infrastructure and services assistance. In addition, there are many significant pragmatic
applications for existing and future satellites/ space technology/ research and facilities that African nations
could use to improve service delivery, governance, economic prosperity, environmental sustainability,
knowledge, forewarning etc… For example South Africa could utilise its satellites for assessing the
feasibility of many proposed government projects including gas fracking or potential in the Karoo, offshore
petroleum gas exploration in the Indian/ Atlantic Ocean, coastal surveying impact for aquaculture along with
planning national key infrastructure projects such as the R250 billion SIP2 N3 Gauteng-Durban Logistics
Corridor and Durban new second dugout port project.
In addition, the global space economic sector is showing sustainable increases in growth and development
potential –especially for BRIC/ Africa/ emerging economy markets, being apparently less susceptible to
business cycle shocks/ global financial crisis than the manufacture of consumer/ industrial goods. First
however, it would need to establish not just the space projects and infrastructure but human capital
formation in education, manufacturing productivity and efficiency, business, research and technological
capacity, its own form of independent financial capital, excellent international cooperation partnerships in
skilled labour and capital mobility, research and technology/ space laws and market , political and public
support –encouraging students/ academics, businessmen, amateurs and entrepreneurs, before any African
country’s space sector economy could compete successfully, following integration into global markets. The
Human Sciences Research Council in a January 2009 report on the aerospace industry also commented
that both South Africa and other African nations also had incredible underutilised trade and investment
opportunities in exploiting beneficiation, downstream value addition (see 3.2), technology, competitive
advantage and local design and development capacity along with the upgrading, testing and life extension/
maintenance of existing systems, technologies and products attaining innovation across economic sectors,
but specifically concentrating on import substitution/ autarchy. NARSDA are even aiming to produce a
Nigerian Astronaut by 2016 –and be the first Africans on the moon by 2030.
With their equatorial positions/ proximity –Central African countries such as the Central African Republic,
Togo, Cameroun, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Congo Brazzaville could follow others
such as French Guinea, India and Kazakhstan to host our own spaceport that countries could use, as few
nations enjoy such a benefit, where satellites and rocket launches can conduct heavier payload capacities.
These and other projects similar to 3.2 and developing satellites, could host potential African space
program research bases –to aid local, continental, commercial and non-African participants in the space
economy… to acquire foreign direct investment and currency revenue (ISECG September 2013). There are
other technological chances such as nanosatellites and robotics. Finally, apart from hosting projects such
as the VBLI telescope network or the satellite network of ARMS or the African Resources and
Environmental Management Satellite Consortium; there are the trade and investment opportunities in Table
7, especially that of astro-tourism. According to Gottschalk (August 2011), the town of Sutherland in the
Northern Cape Astronomy Reserves with marginal other developmental prospects, host of the SALT and
South African Astronomical Observatory, attracts a number of tourists for stargazing tours, supporting local
craft shops, guesthouses, places to eat and other businesses indirectly. Places with observatories,
planetariums, space museums. laboratories etc, even model rocket and space volunteer interest clubs…
the establishment of memorials etc could provide even more alternatives in African future tourism.
Eventually, perhaps with an African spaceport, given enough wealthy people… the future of Africa might
also exist in providing commercial space tourism possibilities –including suborbital and orbital flights as
Richard Branson’s Spaceport America and ROSCOSMOS are providing –especially as the Overberg Test
Range which has that potential, is overwhelmingly underutilised. Grant (2012) estimated that a spaceport
would need the following advantages, which the Northern Cape of South Africa could easily provide a long
runway (Upington at 3115 metres the longest in Africa) closer proximity to aerospace or university base
advantageous –intellectual capital (home of the SKA, SALT, MeerKAT and a newly established Sol Plaatje
University –accessible to Rhodes, low population density –noise, low altitude air traffic, near space launch
range –low population density land, with vertical take-off and landing facilities.
3.8: Potential Costs of an African Space Programme Approach
As with any potential decision to invest in future development, a space sector economy does have certain
potential costs and risks. This paper has sought to affirm that space provides a more economically and
environmentally sustainable catalyst of value-added goods, technology, research and other potential
economic opportunity benefits than an alternative approach of industrialisation, bulk commodities or even
donor aid funding as is traditionally suggested. However, pursuing a space programme still imposes
significant costs on an African country that seeks to invest, as there are always alternative opportunity
costs of any taxpayer funding that states provide or entrepreneurs, academics and financial institutions
might seek to finance. This paper has sought to emphasise the benefits exceed the potential costs –
however these are long term. Other potential costs include the fact that until/ unless future graduates are
specifically trained, an African space sector economy imposes significant costs with a limited supply and
quality of specialists in most African countries –especially scientists, IT specialists, entrepreneurs,
engineers and technicians. There might be other equally vital or immediate economic sector priorities.
Those few that do exist often have high incentives to emigrate, especially among ethnic/ racial politics in
Southern Africa clouding meritocracy –Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa where higher
salaries/ prestige and facilities exist. This paper hopes that more exist for space. We often lack significant
In addition, space offers a global industry with Africa experiencing significant reputation –including the issue
of Africa associated with high risks, uncertainty, weak governance and institutional capacity, capital,
education and other barriers to train local capacity, to be able to establish our own space economy; there is
a monumental need for investment in skills and education. We also have to overcome a lack of sector
experience –issue of economies of scale and market prospects, reliable supply, unionised labour force,
dependable electricity and wireless Internet capacity, along with significant bureaucracy –especially to
establish incentives. Challenges of cost effectiveness and economies of scale, precision, swift delivery,
customs reform, flexibility, reliability, accessibility, improved quality –list space industry requirements
Prestige projects historically provide little trickle down effects and employ comparatively few people during
operation. It would be necessary to calculate the investment cost per job, compared to alternatives to
assess its potential feasibility. Given the constant change of innovation in space –investment in education
and training is never static, but requires ongoing expenditure. A significant time period may be required to
ensure cost recovery. However, Nigeria spent over $13 million on its first satellite and it is still in use over a
decade later. Limited market prospects may exist given the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis,
constraining developed world demand –for products and services –especially space tourism. Significant
historical, administrative, cultural and other barriers might hinder the development of essential international
economic, research and technology partnerships that are necessary. Many space projects including radio
astronomy –focus best under a dedicated astronomy reserve, with minimal pollution, low population
density, no interfering mobile communications networks etc –While this may help marginal economic rural
areas (as in South Africa’s Northern Cape), it discourages the development of many other economic
activities in more developed or populated areas. There may be adverse environmental/ social/ noise effects
associated with space development, though less than many alternatives such as industry or defence.
Finally, those stakeholders who could develop space often face the significant problems of a lack of public
community, academic. commercial and government awareness towards the potential contributions that an
African space economic sector could provide, and therefore remain ignorant as to creating a true African
Space Age demand, which this paper seeks to help clarify…
4.0: CONCLUSION (Developing a Space Age)
4.1: Overview
In conclusion, this paper reiterates that space does matter! If we in Africa are to reject alternative models of
economic development, either in unprofitable raw commodities, donor development aid or Kaldor –Lewis
models/ Rostow stages of growth/ Fisher Clarke Thesis orthodox proposals, then there is a sustainable
alternative through expanding our celestial horizons and seeking to develop a space sector economy for
African nations. It proposed this as a way to resolve many potential African problems including poverty and
underdevelopment (1.2/ Chapter 2) and provided a historical summary of African space exploration (1.3) to
affirm that we as Africans are equally capable of establishing our own space sector. This research paper
therefore seeks to provide greater illumination into contemporary projects, costs, benefits and opportunities,
where few comparable African/ developing country/ Southern hemisphere case studies exist, as a means of
suggesting a prototype research approach for future comparable research in its literature review (Chapter
2) to measure direct and indirect economic, social, environmental and other upstream (producer) and
downstream (user) benefits/ effects. One of the principal propositions advanced in this research is that the
capability of space to resolve twenty-first century concerns and challenges will be enhanced by harnessing
inputs from industry stakeholders and comparable international space agencies to further establish this as
a credible theoretical academic research approach towards assessing the need for a space economy. 2.2
identified several specific functions of space agencies, in maximising advantages to their host economy,
through research, technology, improving service delivery, governance, the quality of life, information and
through international cooperation to satisfy requirements similar to Algerian space agency APAL’s
objectives national needs, development of space industrial capacity for trade and mastery of knowledge.”
In 2.4 and 2.5, it justified the necessity of this academic paper. In the absence of numerous established
academic sources, it is essential to provide a coordinated source of pertinent space development
information and the arguments in favour of pursuing space to assist potential space sector stakeholders to
benefit and a means of assessing the significant prospects of the future of Africa in pursuing a space
economy to avert asymmetrical information to an extent as currently many remain unfamiliar with the
background, facts, implications, consequences, costs and benefits of a space development process –
despite its evidently affecting key stakeholders including the host government, commercial, academic
sectors and community to magnify their potential welfare and prospects wherever pragmatically possible. Chapter Three sought to motivate the myriad advantages to Africa in expanding/ developing its own space
sector economy by first establishing an overview of many prime African space sector economy
stakeholders, including established space agencies, to inspire those African nations that have yet to
develop their own potential. The future of Africa in space is further affirmed through the potential economic
and other benefits in hosting certain projects (3.2) such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), MeerKAT
and Southern African Large Telescopes (SALT) along with the VBLI initiative. Other advantages to Africa in
developing a space sector economy include direct and indirect employment in many areas from industry to
academia to commerce to tourism to utilities and administration and expenditure (3.4), potential economic,
social, educational, environmental, protection and adaptation, reputational/ diplomatic and psychological
benefits (3.4).
A significant number of technological advantages exist, primarily through endorsing satellite technology for
providing information, facilitating communication, broadcasting, environmental studies and land use,
aviation and aerial photography, mapping and surveying (through remote sensing), engineering, climate
change, meteorology, providing early warning, monitoring and adapting to emergencies, disease epidemics
and natural disasters plus others. Research benefits include works on the perils of space weather,
understanding geomagnetism and even Antarctica. Future Trade and Investment Opportunities for Africa
exist in developing satellites, exploiting the opportunities stated but eventually perhaps may even include
hosting a spaceport and space tourism of our own… This research paper identifies that the potential
economic benefits of pure scholarship and technology are unquantifiable but through the example of
SANSA provides prototype indicators including the number of supported students, quantity of data ad
publications and numbers of public reached through space awareness as hypothetical measures to develop
this –perhaps as an indication of future research to assess its true impact/ contribution to enriching a
country’s potential. Finally, this paper recognises, as with many developments, potential costs of an African
Space Programme approach may exist (3.80) including minor noise, environmental and other shortage
costs, the fact that potential benefits and projects have long term rather than immediate effects. Africa
faces a number of other constraints including a shortage of specialist scientists, entrepreneurs, capital,
technicians, academics and engineers whom may face other priorities
The South African apartheid government with its limited space infrastructure capacity significantly
benefitted from space (with over 1500 direct jobs alone by the space launcher sector,) until terminated by
the US pressure and yet it cost over R50 billion rand of wasted expenditure, when we could have been
progressing in space. Given the problems of poverty, underdevelopment, climate change and others that in
Africa face in an increasingly globalised world, we can no longer afford to regress. Since Ptolemy we in
Africa have sought to make a difference and be ignored… we cannot afford to be outcompeted and left
behind. It is time for us as Africans not to be subordinate to the control of others –we are just as capable of
space we can take pride in indigenous knowledge and initiatives as this paper seeks to affirm. With its
significant port project and other infrastructure expansions, its possibilities in space, tourism and
scholarship, Africa’s future no longer has to be so simplistic a model of primarily exporting natural
resources and skilled labour/ net capital outflows to the rest of the world but is capable of achieving value
adding. Through cooperation and projects such as SALT, MeerKAT and the SKA, whether as individuals,
as governments, as specialised space agencies operating on very constrained funding, as the commercial
sector or other space sector stakeholders, Africa has demonstrated its capacity to be as equal as any other
continent, its countries as equal partners to any other, in the search for human advancement, in the quest
for knowledge and solutions…. It is time for a new era in which we as Africans can learn and profit from
space, launch our own regional African Space Agency, achieve our own capacity building, our own
satellites, skilled graduates, entrepreneurs and economies as well as individuals, and determine our own
futures from space, as equal independent partners to the world. Above all else, this paper argues that our
contributions so far and what we could potentially offer, could ensure the reality and triumph of the African
Renaissance and the African spirit, identifying the potential costs and benefits –as the economic impact of
space exploration to the future of Africa. As African’s why not seek to make the most of Space? This paper
challenges just that: to motivate and inspire the truly gifted and others to embark upon space, to create an
Age of African Space Exploration… to provide more resources and opportunities across the Globe –
sustainable economic growth, knowledge, skills upliftment and poverty eradication, –sustainable use, to
find out answers…. Why? Our imagination and curiosity, inspiring our culture, our perspectives –and not
constraining ourselves to Earth –when we have an entire Universe out there.
I: Department of Science and Technology South Africa. www.dst.gov.za
II: Foundation for Space Development www.developspacesa.org
III: NARSDA
IV: South African Astronomical Observatory. www.saao.ac.za
V: South African Council for Space Affairs. www.sacsa.gov.za
VI: Square Kilometre Array South Africa www.ska.ac.za
VII: South African National Space Agency (SANSA). www.sansa.org.za
VIII: South African Space Association
IX: University of Cape Town Space Laboratory www.spacelab.uct.ac.za
B: Relevant Unpublished Work
I: Dyer J. November 2014.” The Astronautical Odyssey –Creating the Age of Space for Humanity.”
II: Dyer J. August 2014. “The Potential Value of a University to its Host Municipal Economy.” (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University Proposed Master’s Dissertation Concept.
III: Elwaer A. April 2013. “The African Space Agenda: Current and future prospects Enhancing Confidence, securing Space Stability.” UNIDIR 2013 Space Security Conference Presentation
IV: Soko M. 2005. “The Aerospace Industry. Prospects for Strategic Cooperation among the IBSA Countries.”
C: Relevant Published Research I: Ansdell M., López L., and Hendrickson D. August 2011. “Analysing the Development Paths of Emerging Space Nations: Opportunities or Challenge for Space Sustainability? George Washington University Paper.
II: Boroffice R. December 2008: “The Nigerian Space Programme: An Update.” African Skies Journal.
III: Broniatowski D.A, Faith G., and Sabathier V. September 2006. “The Case for Managed International Cooperation in Space Exploration.” Washington Centre for Strategic and International Studies Paper.
IV: British Interplanetary Society. January – June 2014. “The Scientific and Cultural Case for UK Participation in Space Exploration.” British Interplanetary Society Publication.
VI: Buckley N, Perry Johnson-Green P, Thomas Piekutowski T et al. February 2012. “International Space Station Benefits for Humanity.” ISCEG Report.
VII: China National Space Administration. December 2003 “China’s Space Activities.” China National
Space Administration White Paper.
VIII: Clark J, Knee P et al. May 2012. “Design of a Methodology to Evaluate the Direct and Indirect Economic and Social Benefits of Public Investments in Space.” European Space Agency Final Report.
IX: European Space Agency. March 2005. “The Impact of Space Activities upon Society.” European Space
Agency Report.
X: Freeman M. February 2011. “Space Technology Can Transform Africa.” EIA International (online
publication).
XI: Gottschalk K. July 2011. “South Africa’s Space Programme: Past, Present, Future.” Journal of
Astropolitics.
XII: Gottschalk K. January 203. “The growth of space science in African countries for Earth observation in the 21st century.” South African Geosciences Council Publication
XIII: Grant A. January 2012. “The UK Space Economy: The Present and the Exciting Future.” IOD Big
Picture Press.
XIV: Griffin M. September 2007. “The Space Economy.” NASA 50th Anniversary Lecture Series
XV: Human Sciences Research Council, Development Policy Research Unit and Sociology of Work
Research Unit. January 2009: “Sectorial Analysis of the Aerospace Industry in South Africa.” South Africa
Department of Labour Sector Studies Research Report.
XVI: International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). September 2013. “Benefits Stemming from Space Exploration.” International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) Report.
XVII: Kahn M. June 2011. “The Space Economy at a Glance.” OECD Directorate for Science, Technology
and Industry Discussion Paper.
XVIII: Martinez P. April 2008. “Space science and technology in South Africa: An Overview.” South Africa
National Working Group Secretariat on Space Science and Technology Report.
XIX: NARSDA. 2010. “National Space Research and Developmental Agency Agent.” Nigerian Government
Gazette.
XX: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). February 2004. “The Vision for Space Exploration.” NASA Publication Report.
XXI: National Space Society. February 2014. “Space Tourism: Opening Up the Space Economy.” National
Space Society Position Paper on Space Tourism.
XXII: South African Agency for Science and Technology Advancement (SAASTA). February 2014. “Careers in Space Science, South Africa.” South Africa Department of Science and Technology
XXIII: South African Cities Network and Department of Economic Development. April 2013. “The Space Economy: An important consideration in spatial developmental planning.” EDD-SACN Dialogue Report.
XXIV: South African National Space Agency. March 2008. “SANSA Act.” South African Government
Gazette.
XXV: South African National Space Agency. March 2014. “SANSA Annual Performance Plan 2014/ 2015.” South African National Space Agency Publication.
XXVI: South African National Space Agency. August 2014. “SANSA Annual Report 2013/ 2014.” South
African National Space Agency Publication.
XXVII: South African National Space Agency. August 2013. “SANSA Annual Report 2012/ 2013.” South
African National Space Agency Publication.
XXVIII: South African National Space Agency. September 2012. “SANSA Annual Report 2011/ 2012.” South African National Space Agency Publication.
XXIX: The Tauri Group. September 2011. “The South African Space Industry.” South Africa Foundation for
Space Development.
XXX: United Kingdom Space Agency. November 2013. “UK Space Action Plan: 2014-2030.” United
Kingdom Space Agency Publication.
XXXI: United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. August 2011. “Space Matters.” United Nations Office
for Outer Space Affairs Report.
XXXII: Wild S. 2012. “Searching African Skies: The Square Kilometre Array and South Africa’s quest to hear the songs of the stars.” Jacana Media Publishers.
