33
November 2015 Business Expectations Survey A Quarterly Publication Survey Management Division Statistics Department Central Bank of Nigeria Fourth Quarter, 2015
November 2015
Business
Expectations Survey
A Quarterly Publication
Survey Management Division
Statistics Department
Central Bank of Nigeria
Fourth Quarter, 2015
2
Page 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary 4
About the Survey 5
Overall Business Outlook on the Macroeconomy 6
Macro economy Outlook by type and size of businesses 7
Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by sector 8
Business Confidence on own operations by sector 8
Access to Credit and Financial Condition 9
Employment and Expansion Plans 10
Business Constraints 10
Expectations on Exchange Rate 11
Expectations on Inflation and Borrowing Rates 11
Business Outlook- North Central Zone 16
Business Outlook- North East Zone 19
Business Outlook- North West Zone 22
Business Outlook- South East Zone 25
Business Outlook- South South Zone 28
Business Outlook- South West Zone 31
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Distribution of Sample size and response rate (%) 5
Table 2 Confidence Index – National 13
Table 3 Confidence Index – North Central Zone 17
Table 4 Confidence Index – North East Zone 20
Table 5 Confidence Index – North West Zone 23
Table 6 Confidence Index – South East Zone 26
Table 7 Confidence Index – South South Zone 29
Table 8 Confidence Index – South West Zone 32
3
Page 3

LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 1 National Overall Business Outlook Index 6
Fig. 2 Contribution to the Overall Business Outlook Index on
Macro-economy by Sector 7
Fig. 3a Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector 8
Fig. 3b Business Confidence on Own Operation by Sector 8
Fig. 4 Volume and Average Capacity Utilization Index 9
Fig. 5 Business Outlook Index on Own Operations: Access to Credit and
Financial Condition 9
Fig. 6a Next Quarter: Employment Outlook and Volume of Business Activity 10
Fig. 6b Business Constraints Index 10
Fig. 6c N/$ Exchange Rate Index 11
Fig. 7 Inflation Rate Index 11
Fig. 8 Borrowing Rate Index 12
Fig. 9 North Central Zone Business Outlook Index 16
Fig. 10 North East Zone Business Outlook Index 19
Fig. 11 North West Zone Business Outlook Index 22
Fig. 12 South East Zone Business Outlook Index 25
Fig. 13 South South Zone Business Outlook Index 28
Fig. 14 South West Zone Business Outlook Index 31
4
A Quarterly Publicat ion of the Central Bank of Niger ia
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Q4, 2015 Business Expectations Survey (BES) was carried out during the period October 26 to
November 7, 2015 with a sample size of 1,900 business enterprises nationwide. A response rate of 98.8
per cent was achieved, and the sectors covered during the exercise included Industry, Construction,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services.
The highlights of the BES report are as follows:
Respondent firms were optimistic on the macro economy in Q4, 2015. The optimism was driv-
en by the opinion of respondents from the services, wholesale/retail trade and industrial sectors.
Respondents’ optimism in the volume of total order and their internal liquidity position, buoyed
the volume of their business activities in the current quarter. Although respondents were pessi-
mistic on access to credit, majority of firms upped their internal liquidity position in the review
quarter.
The positive outlook in the volume of business activities of the firms implied improved pro-
spects for employment in the next quarter. The sector with the highest prospect for employment
was wholesale/retail trade, followed by services, industrial and construction sectors.
The respondent firms emphasized that insufficient power supply was the major factor constrain-
ing the business activity in Q4 2015. Other constraining factors were high interest rate, finan-
cial problems1, competition, unfavourable economic climate and access to credit.
Respondent firms expected the naira to remain strong, and both inflation and borrowing rates to
rise in the current quarter. The same pattern was expected in the next quarter for exchange rate
and inflation rate, while the borrowing rate was expected to decline.
3rd Quarter, 2015
1 Difficulty in paying off debts, tax and other financial obligations
5
Business Expectations Survey
Fourth Quarter, 2015
About the Survey.
The response
rate from
the 1,900
firms surveyed was
98.8
per cent
2The Business Expectations Survey (BES) is a quarterly survey of leading firms drawn from Business Es-
tablishment updated frames of Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. The BES re-
sult provides advance indication of change in the overall business activity in the economy and in the various
measures of activity of the companies’ own operations as well as selected economic indicators.
The Q4, 2015 Business Expectations Survey (BES)2 was conducted during the
period October 26 to November 7, 2015. There were 1,900 firms surveyed na-
tionwide, drawn from the updated survey frames of both the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The survey pro-
duced a response rate of 98.8 per cent in the quarter under review.
The map below shows all the states in the federation, while table 1 shows the
sampled states in the six geopolitical zones, the sample size and the percentage
response rate of the survey.
TABLE 1: Distribution of sample size and response rate (%)
ZONE SAMPLE STATE
Q4 2015
SAMPLE SIZE
Q4 2015
RESPONSES
Q4 2015
RESPONSE
RATE (%)
North Central Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Abuja,
Nassarawa, Benue and Plateau350 346 98.9
North EastBauchi, Adamawa, Gombe, and
Taraba 250 250 100.0
North WestKaduna, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa,
Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi350 345 98.6
South EastAnambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo
and Abia250 246 98.4
South South Edo, Delta, Rivers, Cross River,
Bayelsa and Akwa-Ibom300 295 98.3
South WestLagos, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ogun and
Ondo400 396 99.0
TOTAL 1900 1878 98.8
6
Respondents were drawn from the Industrial, Construction, Wholesale/Retail trade
and Services sectors. The service sector is made up of Financial Intermediation, Hotels
and Restaurants, Renting & Business Activities and Community & Social Services.
The overall response rate for the quarter, at 98.8 per cent was 1.0 percentage point
above the level attained in the previous quarter. A breakdown of the responses re-
ceived by type of business showed that “neither importer nor exporter” category ac-
counted for 72.5 per cent of the respondents, followed by “importer” with 15.8 per
cent. “Both Importer and Exporter” respondents accounted for 8.8 per cent, while 2.9
The overall confidence index (CI)3, which stood at 8.3 points in Q4 2015, indicated
respondent firms’ optimism on the macro economy. At 52.8 points, the overall CI
points to greater confidence on the macro economy in the next quarter.
The optimism in the current quarter was driven by the opinion of respondents from
the services (3.3 points), wholesale/retail trade (3.1 points) and industrial (2.2
points) sectors. Also, the expected drivers for the optimism on the macro economy
in the next quarter are services (18.9 points), wholesale/retail trade (15.7 points) in-
dustrial (12.6 points) and construction sectors (5.6 points) (Table 2, Sections 19 &
20).
Respondent firms
were optimistic on
the macro econo-
my in Q4 2015
and the next quar-
ter.
Overall Business Outlook on the Macro economy
3The CI is computed as the percentage of firms that answered in the affirmative less the percentage of firms
that answered in the negative in a given indicator. A positive CI indicates a favourable view, except for the
average inflation rate and the average naira borrowing rate, where a positive CI indicates the opposite.
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Q2
2008
Q4
2008
Q2
2009
Q4
2009
Q2
2010
Q4
2010
Q2
2011
Q4
2011
Q2
2012
Q4
2012
Q2
2013
Q4
2013
Q2
2014
Q4
2014
Q2
2015
Q4
2015
Inde
x po
ints
Inde
x Po
ints
Current Quarter Next Quarter
Fig.1: National Overall Business Outlook Index
7
Macro economy Outlook by Type and Size of Business
The drivers (by size of business) of the optimism on the macro economy in the cur-
rent quarter were the small ( 6.5 per cent) and medium (1.8 per cent) (Table 2
Section 25).
The percentage distribution of respondent firms by employment size showed that
small size firms constituted the highest percentage of responses (79.6 per cent),
followed by medium size firms (14.4 per cent), and large size firms ( 6.1 per cent)
(Table 2 Section 17).
The drivers (by type of business) of the optimism on the macro economy in the
current quarter were “neither importer nor exporter” (6.6 per cent), followed by
“both importer and exporter” (0.6 per cent) “exporter” (0.6 per cent) and
“importer” (0.4 per cent) (Table 2 Section 23).
The distribution of respondent firms by type of business showed that “neither im-
porter nor exporter” constituted the highest percentage of responses (72.5 per
cent), followed by “importer” (15.8 per cent), “both importer and exporter” (8.8
per cent) and “exporter” (2.9 per cent) (Table 2 Section 16).
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Industrial
Construction
Wholesale/Retail
Services
Index Points
Fig.2: Contribution to the Overall Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sectors
Next Quarter Q4 2015
8
Business sentiment across most sectors was optimistic in the current quarter and
likely to remain so in the next quarter. The indices of the wholesale/retail, services
and industrial sectors stood at 11.2, 9.5 and 9.0 points, respectively (Fig. 3a).
The distribution of respondent firms by sector showed that services sector constitut-
ed the highest number of responses (651), followed by wholesale/retail (519), in-
dustrial (465) and construction (243) (Table 2 Section 18).
The business
sentiment was
upbeat across
all sectors in
Q4 2015 .
Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomy by Sector
Business Confidence on Own Operations by Sector
Business
confidence on own
operations was less
optimistic across
all sectors
compared with the
outlook in the
corresponding
quarter of 2014.
The respondents’ confidence index on own operations was less optimistic across all
sectors in the current quarter than it was in the corresponding quarter of 2014. The
confidence indices of services, wholesale/retail trade, industrial and construction sec-
tors stood at 7.4, 6.6, 3.4 and –8.6 in Q4, 2015 from their levels of 25.4, 17.0, 17.5 and
0.4 in the corresponding quarter of 2014, respectively (Table 2 Section 4).
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Q2 2
008
Q3 2
008
Q4 2
008
Q1 2
009
Q2 2
009
Q3 2
009
Q4 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q2 2
010
Q3 2
010
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
Q4 2
015
Sect
or I
ndex
on
the
mac
roec
onom
y
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Services Sector
Industrial Sector
Construction Sector
Fig.3a: Business Outlook Index on the Macroeconomyby Sector
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Q2 2
008
Q3 2
008
Q4 2
008
Q1 2
009
Q2 2
009
Q3 2
009
Q4 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q2 2
010
Q3 2
010
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
Q4 2
015
Sect
or In
dex o
n Ow
n Op
erat
ions
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Services Sector
Industrial Sector
Construction Sector
Fig.3b: Business Confidence on Own Operation by Sector
9
The financial condition index in the current quarter stood at 4.1 per cent and was
driven by the services (2.6 points), wholesale /retail trade (1.8 points) and industrial
(0.9 points) sectors (Table 2 Sections 5 & 21).
Respondents’ optimism in the volume of total order and the internal liquidity posi-
tion, buoyed the volume of their business activities in the current quarter. In spite of
the negative outlook of firms on access to credit, majority of firms upped their fi-
nancial condition in the review quarter (Table 2 Section 5).
Average capacity
utilization
dipped by 11.2
points in the
current quarter
when compared
with Q4 2014.
At 10.5 points, the average capacity utilization index (CUI) in Q4, 2015 dipped by
11.2 points when compared with the 21.7 points achieved a year earlier (Fig. 4).
Access to Credit and Financial Condition
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Inde
x
Inde
x
Average CapacityUtilization
Volume of BusinessActivity
Fig. 4: Volume and Average Capacity Utilization Indices
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Inde
x
Inde
x
Credit Access Index
Financial Condition Index
Fig. 5: Business Outlook Index on own operations - Access to Credit and Financial Condition
10
At 64.4 index points, the positive outlook in the volume of business activities reflected
higher prospect for employment in the next quarter, as the employment index stood at
40.1 points. The employment outlook index by sector, showed that the services sector
(14.1 per cent) had higher prospect for creating jobs, followed by the wholesale/retail
trade (12.1 per cent) Industrial (9.4 per cent) and Construction (4.5 per cent) sectors
(Table 2, Sections 6 & 22).
On the analysis of businesses with expansion plans by sector in the next quarter, the
wholesale/retail sector indicated higher interest for expansion with an index of 69.6
points. Similarly, services, construction and industrial firms indicated expansion plans
for Q1, 2016 with indices of 68.2, 62.2 and 60.5 points, respectively (Table 2 Section
8).
Employment and Expansion Plans
The positive
outlook of the
volume of
business
activities of the
firms suggests
higher prospect
for employment
in the next
quarter.
The employment
outlook index by
sector shows that
the services
sector has more
prospects for
employment in
the next quarter.
Business Constraints
Insufficient
power supply,
high interest
rate, financial
problems,
competition,
unfavourable
economic climate
and unclear
economic laws,
remain major
constraints to
business in
Nigeria.
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Inde
x Inde
x
Vol of Business Activity IndexEmployment Outlook Index
Fig. 6a: Next Quarter Employment Outlook and Volume of Business Activity Indices
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
High Interest Rate
Unclear Economic Laws
Lack of Equipment
Insufficient Demand
Access to Credit
Financial Problems
Competition
Labor Problems
Lack of Materials Input
Unfavourable Political Climate
Unfavourable Economic Climate
Insufficient Power Supply
Index Points
Fig. 6b: Business Constraints
11
The respondent firms identified insufficient power supply (53.7 index points), high
interest rate (46.9 index points), financial problems (46.9 index points), competition
(39.4 index points) ,unfavourable economic climate (37.5 index points) and unclear
economic laws (31.6 index points) as the major factors constraining business activi-
ty in the current quarter (Fig. 6b).
Expectations on Exchange Rate
Majority of the respondent firms expect the naira exchange rate to appreciate in the
current and next quarters, as the confidence indices stood at 8.3 and 18.9 points, re-
spectively (Fig. 6c).
The respondent
firms expect the
Naira exchange
rate to
appreciate in
the current and
next quarters.
Expectations on Inflation and Borrowing Rates
Inflation rate was
expected to rise in
the current and
next quarters.
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Infl
atio
n R
ate
Inde
x
Infl
atio
n R
ate
Inde
x
Current Quarter
Next Quarter
Fig.7: Inflation Rate Index
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Inde
x
Inde
x
Current Quarter Next Quarter
Fig. 6c: N/$ Exchange Rate Index
12
Respondent firms expected inflation rate to rise in both quarters, with confidence in-
dices of 10.4 and 0.2 points, respectively (Fig. 7).
Similarly, respondent firms expect the borrowing rate to rise in the current quarter
but to fall in the next quarter as the confidence indices stood at 3.6 and –5.3 points,
respectively (Fig. 8).
Borrowing
rate was
expected to rise
in the current
quarter but to
fall in the next
quarter.
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Bor
row
ing
Rat
e In
dex
Bor
row
ing
Rat
e In
dex
Current Quarter Next Quarter
Fig.8: Borrowing Rate Index
13
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Ov
era
ll B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Na
tio
na
l1
0.1
16
.21
4.1
10
.92
5.1
15
.11
9.0
16
.02
1.8
21
.71
6.4
16
.08
.42
.81
4.9
8.3
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
6.4
28
.61
1.7
19
.83
2.3
25
.31
3.5
20
.61
2.7
17
.12
2.9
30
.22
3.4
-1.7
22
.5-5
.5
No
rth
Ea
st3
9.0
5.6
15
.8-9
.32
9.8
11
.82
0.7
7.0
21
.67
.51
8.8
12
.88
.81
0.4
33
.62
1.2
No
rth
We
st2
.45
.16
.01
5.5
19
.26
.32
2.3
19
.52
5.6
17
.91
0.6
12
.7-0
.91
4.5
20
.41
5.4
So
uth
Ea
st-0
.42
3.8
21
.80
.83
6.1
3.6
14
.81
7.7
10
.83
6.7
10
.16
.58
.8-1
.2-1
8.5
8.5
So
uth
So
uth
-3.6
21
.52
3.6
21
.01
9.8
28
.42
9.5
22
.33
8.0
35
.01
7.8
25
.21
9.3
-16
.32
3.6
-1.7
So
uth
We
st1
8.6
13
.41
0.1
12
.51
7.9
14
.31
4.5
9.6
20
.91
7.0
17
.08
.3-5
.68
.56
.81
3.1
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Na
tio
na
l5
2.2
56
.15
0.1
52
.05
8.0
44
.95
4.6
53
.55
2.7
55
.35
3.6
55
.74
6.4
55
.55
4.6
52
.8
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
56
.16
6.7
44
.84
9.4
59
.15
0.3
49
.25
2.0
39
.55
5.7
50
.96
5.9
52
.94
8.0
48
.44
3.1
No
rth
Ea
st4
4.4
48
.44
7.6
53
.96
9.6
48
.85
0.9
49
.26
1.3
48
.06
0.0
63
.65
9.6
66
.85
7.2
74
.8
No
rth
We
st3
4.4
49
.24
2.5
54
.65
8.0
41
.76
4.5
58
.05
1.3
49
.75
4.4
58
.74
2.4
62
.35
9.9
50
.1
So
uth
Ea
st5
4.1
48
.75
4.0
58
.45
3.5
28
.54
8.5
54
.04
4.0
55
.74
4.8
39
.54
8.8
56
.03
3.3
50
.0
So
uth
So
uth
58
.36
6.9
60
.95
0.0
60
.55
4.6
55
.75
8.3
65
.06
2.3
53
.76
4.8
55
.94
7.7
65
.13
9.7
So
uth
We
st6
5.0
53
.85
2.9
48
.34
9.5
43
.15
6.7
50
.35
7.0
58
.05
6.6
43
.22
7.3
54
.85
9.0
61
.1
2.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
11
.69
.36
.46
.12
4.8
17
.01
6.6
12
.32
0.0
16
.91
2.7
22
.97
.50
.41
1.8
9.0
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r2
1.4
20
.81
4.9
4.5
26
.41
8.5
21
.72
1.4
21
.92
0.4
15
.7-2
.1-4
.3-8
.05
.6-2
.9
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e2
.51
6.6
16
.71
4.7
26
.41
1.4
18
.61
1.6
16
.62
0.3
16
.91
5.3
10
.07
.81
0.6
11
.2
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
18
.31
9.0
17
.61
5.6
24
.11
5.3
19
.91
9.5
26
.92
6.5
18
.91
8.4
12
.64
.82
3.2
9.5
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
-26
.33
2.8
28
.64
6.4
32
.33
9.6
47
.13
4.7
36
.13
3.1
28
.73
2.3
22
.08
.14
5.1
9.3
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts5
.16
.99
.93
0.1
18
.72
.11
3.6
11
.22
6.7
5.2
5.9
0.6
-1.7
-2.1
8.5
7.8
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s-1
.91
4.2
18
.08
.82
3.7
4.3
11
.62
6.0
20
.93
1.4
20
.12
5.9
7.3
-2.7
24
.31
1.8
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
27
.32
6.7
17
.98
.92
4.2
22
.01
0.7
9.9
24
.23
7.2
24
.71
9.5
23
.71
5.6
15
.59
.5
3.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
49
.35
3.1
47
.14
9.9
58
.04
4.2
54
.34
9.3
50
.55
3.4
53
.15
7.6
41
.75
1.6
54
.95
1.0
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r5
6.1
58
.94
4.7
47
.05
9.9
44
.95
0.4
58
.05
2.2
52
.75
5.8
46
.93
1.9
50
.25
3.6
43
.2
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e5
3.5
56
.35
2.2
54
.35
9.6
44
.45
3.2
52
.35
2.4
53
.85
1.8
51
.45
1.5
56
.64
7.4
56
.6
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
52
.45
7.2
53
.05
7.6
56
.44
5.6
57
.55
5.5
54
.75
8.8
54
.56
1.5
51
.55
9.6
60
.25
4.5
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
52
.68
2.8
62
.27
8.6
57
.76
3.3
70
.36
3.9
58
.56
8.5
64
.86
3.0
65
.96
5.9
54
.96
0.5
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts5
6.2
48
.74
7.3
63
.74
8.7
38
.95
4.0
58
.35
8.3
45
.95
0.5
58
.44
7.5
61
.06
1.6
47
.2
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s4
1.5
49
.65
5.1
48
.66
1.1
34
.85
5.5
61
.55
2.7
58
.55
5.8
67
.33
9.7
49
.06
6.2
54
.2
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
50
.05
5.7
50
.65
9.5
58
.25
0.3
51
.84
0.8
49
.16
4.4
50
.55
8.5
55
.16
2.2
59
.15
7.7
4.
Bu
sin
ess
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
14
.81
3.0
7.3
8.0
15
.41
0.3
17
.51
7.5
19
.32
0.8
12
.01
7.5
6.5
0.2
8.1
3.4
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r2
3.5
15
.71
0.3
8.3
21
.91
4.6
22
.81
4.6
16
.78
.61
2.0
0.4
-5.9
2.3
0.4
-8.6
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e1
5.6
19
.71
5.7
16
.32
0.3
15
.92
1.7
19
.72
3.3
20
.11
9.0
17
.01
5.2
9.2
11
.96
.6
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 1
7.3
23
.62
3.0
22
.12
2.2
17
.72
0.7
24
.62
4.5
26
.51
8.4
25
.42
0.8
16
.21
6.2
7.4
5.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
In
de
x1
7.1
24
.72
1.0
22
.02
8.2
20
.22
6.2
25
.42
5.1
27
.11
7.6
21
.71
7.0
12
.91
3.9
11
.2
Vo
lum
e o
f T
ota
l O
rde
r B
oo
k I
nd
ex
14
.52
6.1
20
.92
0.7
24
.91
7.8
26
.72
4.4
26
.82
5.6
19
.32
0.6
17
.21
2.6
14
.41
1.0
Cre
dit
Acc
ess
In
de
x1
.71
.00
.5-3
.45
.20
.15
.75
.27
.27
.63
.16
.11
.5-0
.5-0
.1-0
.9
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
dit
ion
In
de
x1
4.8
18
.91
5.2
14
.02
0.1
15
.02
0.5
20
.22
1.8
21
.01
6.2
18
.01
2.1
8.4
11
.04
.1
Av
era
ge
Ca
pa
city
Uti
liza
tio
n
19
.72
4.3
19
.22
1.0
24
.42
0.5
24
.22
4.0
27
.62
8.7
20
.42
1.7
15
.01
5.2
18
.11
0.5
6.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
In
de
x6
8.1
70
.06
6.0
68
.86
7.6
60
.26
5.3
63
.16
3.5
66
.56
1.4
61
.55
5.2
62
.96
3.9
64
.4
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
46
.64
3.5
39
.84
2.0
41
.53
5.2
43
.74
0.3
39
.53
8.6
36
.64
0.5
34
.03
9.4
40
.14
0.1
7.
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s b
y S
ect
or:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
46
.23
8.5
35
.53
9.7
35
.13
1.4
42
.13
5.5
37
.44
1.4
34
.54
1.5
29
.73
1.4
35
.03
8.1
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r5
4.1
45
.84
2.7
37
.74
6.5
36
.04
6.0
44
.83
7.1
32
.23
2.9
36
.02
1.7
40
.34
2.9
35
.0
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e4
5.7
43
.44
0.8
44
.04
0.9
37
.64
1.7
42
.24
2.2
37
.34
3.3
38
.93
9.4
42
.63
8.2
43
.7
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 5
0.1
9.8
41
.14
4.9
44
.23
5.8
45
.44
0.3
40
.13
9.2
34
.24
2.6
37
.94
2.4
44
.04
0.6
20
15
TA
BLE
2B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
Na
tio
na
l2
01
32
01
42
01
2
14
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4
8. B
usi
ne
ss w
ith
Exp
ansi
on
Pla
ns
(in
pe
r ce
nt)
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r29
.823
.524
.517
.924
.260
.864
.464
.362
.062
.956
.159
.654
.462
.359
.862
.2
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r51
.038
.138
.920
.534
.659
.767
.865
.666
.157
.161
.055
.949
.263
.965
.460
.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e36
.841
.033
.538
.442
.064
.469
.471
.067
.269
.368
.756
.859
.871
.066
.769
.6
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
27.7
36.3
39.8
43.8
30.3
64.5
66.3
67.7
66.7
63.6
63.3
64.2
58.5
66.0
62.5
68.2
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
36.8
65.5
39.0
78.6
40.0
66.9
67.1
67.3
66.7
65.4
63.9
66.1
60.2
64.9
60.1
60.5
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
23.6
14.3
31.9
57.5
20.2
62.2
66.2
65.8
59.4
58.7
61.7
61.8
55.8
66.3
60.4
66.7
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
62.3
51.8
48.5
33.7
26.3
62.5
65.9
71.6
69.6
67.3
65.4
67.3
61.6
57.8
64.4
72.5
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
36.4
28.4
40.5
40.0
38.1
67.2
66.1
66.3
72.0
63.8
62.6
62.6
57.6
73.3
64.9
71.4
9. B
usi
ne
ss C
on
stra
ints
: Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Hig
h In
tere
st R
ate
53.4
49.8
47.8
51.5
48.1
49.8
44.1
48.7
48.0
34.9
49.4
45.4
46.6
48.0
42.2
46.9
Un
cle
ar E
con
om
ic L
aws
38.6
35.0
39.6
41.5
34.3
39.6
36.5
36.0
30.4
26.4
34.3
29.9
32.0
32.0
28.6
31.6
Lack
of
Equ
ipm
en
t22
.318
.317
.827
.019
.117
.024
.619
.519
.215
.622
.315
.915
.313
.816
.515
.5
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
and
30.6
24.6
22.6
28.5
19.7
24.0
27.0
23.3
21.0
19.9
27.0
25.2
23.1
25.6
22.9
25.6
Acc
ess
to
Cre
dit
34.4
31.5
32.2
36.1
35.6
36.8
34.1
34.1
31.5
28.1
35.1
29.8
31.0
33.3
29.4
32.8
Fin
anci
al P
rob
lem
s48
.446
.449
.953
.049
.050
.149
.246
.746
.945
.247
.243
.042
.447
.842
.246
.9
Co
mp
eti
tio
n39
.537
.839
.337
.737
.436
.641
.538
.338
.241
.343
.238
.139
.736
.734
.839
.4
Lab
or
Pro
ble
ms
8.5
0.9
4.4
8.5
4.5
0.2
10.4
9.9
4.6
4.2
7.8
3.1
0.5
2.7
2.6
4.6
Lack
of
Mat
eri
als
Inp
ut
20.6
8.0
12.5
18.8
9.6
7.8
18.0
14.2
12.4
6.7
13.8
10.5
8.8
8.7
10.3
6.7
Un
favo
ura
ble
Po
liti
cal C
lim
ate
35.1
27.6
39.8
38.6
29.4
34.7
34.9
34.4
30.3
31.4
35.6
31.6
33.0
28.8
29.7
27.6
Un
favo
ura
ble
Eco
no
mic
Cli
mat
e44
.837
.548
.045
.835
.844
.544
.343
.938
.835
.843
.137
.439
.840
.139
.137
.5
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Sup
ply
64.6
74.3
71.6
68.5
69.3
70.7
65.3
65.5
62.8
64.6
66.1
61.8
67.6
71.6
61.8
53.7
10. B
usi
ne
ss E
xpe
ctat
ion
Ind
ex
on
Se
lect
ed
Eco
no
mic
Ind
icat
ors
: Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
N/$
Exc
han
ge R
ate
2.1
-4.2
-2.1
-6.3
0.2
-2.3
5.0
1.8
1.5
15.2
7.3
7.2
-14.
7-3
.34.
18.
3
Infl
atio
n R
ate
33.5
26.3
14.3
30.1
30.7
25.3
25.9
18.9
16.6
18.4
12.4
11.6
18.5
18.7
11.8
10.4
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
19.6
23.3
15.6
20.9
19.3
10.9
15.3
12.4
12.4
14.2
7.5
7.6
10.6
7.7
10.1
3.6
11. B
usi
ne
ss E
xpe
ctat
ion
Ind
ex
on
Se
lect
ed
Eco
no
mic
Ind
icat
ors
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
N/$
Exc
han
ge R
ate
20.8
10.7
14.0
12.7
8.3
4.3
11.8
10.9
7.7
21.9
16.5
10.6
-5.1
12.1
14.6
18.9
Infl
atio
n R
ate
15.2
13.7
10.5
18.2
17.7
21.4
14.6
10.7
11.6
10.6
9.1
8.9
7.3
-2.0
-5.9
0.2
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
4.5
12.7
6.5
8.5
11.5
7.6
6.7
9.5
7.6
12.1
8.9
7.8
4.9
-0.8
-0.6
-5.3
12. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k in
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Ty
pe
of
Bu
sin
ess
: Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Imp
ort
er
4.5
20.7
19.6
13.6
34.5
24.0
30.3
23.6
31.0
15.4
26.2
16.7
4.8
0.3
15.0
2.4
Exp
ort
er
29.6
28.1
-16.
18.
227
.334
.114
.04.
88.
228
.315
.842
.312
.219
.64.
721
.8
Bo
th Im
po
rte
r an
d E
xpo
rte
r21
.511
.922
.712
.926
.915
.06.
29.
027
.44.
912
.53.
3-3
.4-1
4.3
7.4
7.2
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xpo
rte
r9.
515
.612
.610
.322
.713
.218
.415
.519
.624
.814
.216
.810
.34.
616
.19.
1
13. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k in
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Ty
pe
of
Bu
sin
ess
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Imp
ort
er
43.8
51.6
56.0
60.5
60.6
57.0
58.7
61.6
57.1
49.1
53.0
54.9
47.1
59.4
42.9
50.3
Exp
ort
er
42.6
46.9
48.4
59.2
60.6
64.3
32.6
45.2
42.9
52.2
73.7
53.8
30.6
23.5
44.2
61.8
Bo
th Im
po
rte
r an
d E
xpo
rte
r59
.064
.953
.557
.160
.641
.346
.443
.244
.645
.448
.351
.629
.550
.049
.757
.2
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xpo
rte
r54
.656
.148
.549
.957
.142
.855
.553
.353
.357
.953
.856
.448
.656
.558
.352
.4
14. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k in
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Si
ze o
f B
usi
ne
ss: C
urr
en
t Q
uar
ter
Smal
l (<5
0)8.
915
.212
.98.
723
.712
.018
.213
.722
.023
.516
.016
.08.
13.
315
.68.
2
Me
diu
m (
50 a
nd
<20
0)12
.318
.617
.813
.629
.327
.617
.422
.725
.320
.221
.718
.89.
01.
016
.312
.2
Larg
e (
200
and
Up
)15
.922
.721
.434
.534
.730
.332
.027
.711
.35.
710
.711
.110
.3-1
.72.
9-0
.9
15. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k in
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Si
ze o
f B
usi
ne
ss: N
ext
Qu
arte
r
Smal
l (<5
0)54
.954
.949
.251
.256
.944
.054
.253
.953
.157
.253
.758
.448
.358
.055
.452
.2
Me
diu
m (
50 a
nd
<20
0)51
.658
.748
.853
.062
.749
.656
.948
.948
.351
.355
.046
.735
.243
.956
.560
.7
Larg
e (
200
and
Up
)29
.865
.563
.262
.262
.946
.253
.958
.156
.544
.349
.246
.447
.854
.237
.941
.2
16. P
erc
en
tage
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
Re
spo
nd
en
t Fi
rms
by
Typ
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss
Imp
ort
er
21.7
14.6
15.5
12.9
17.0
12.6
16.1
14.2
14.6
15.0
19.4
14.1
16.5
16.7
17.5
15.8
Exp
ort
er
3.1
1.8
1.6
2.6
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.0
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.9
Bo
th Im
po
rte
r an
d E
xpo
rte
r8.
210
.59.
17.
88.
28.
710
.18.
010
.28.
99.
48.
27.
98.
28.
08.
8
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xpo
rte
r67
.073
.073
.876
.773
.176
.371
.675
.672
.573
.669
.176
.373
.072
.572
.272
.5
2015
TAB
LE 2
BU
SIN
ESS
EXP
ECTA
TIO
NS
SUR
VEY
Nat
ion
al20
1220
1320
14
15
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms
by
Em
plo
ym
en
t S
ize
Sm
all
(<
50
)7
6.9
79
.18
0.8
81
.08
0.1
80
.87
9.0
78
.87
9.0
77
.78
0.6
78
.17
8.6
77
.98
1.6
79
.6
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
14
.41
4.1
12
.91
2.5
13
.51
3.0
14
.31
3.6
14
.21
4.6
12
.91
3.7
14
.21
5.7
12
.81
4.4
Larg
e (
20
0 a
nd
Up
)8
.66
.86
.26
.36
.46
.26
.67
.66
.87
.76
.58
.27
.26
.45
.56
.1
No
Re
spo
nse
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms
by
Se
cto
r
Sa
mp
le S
ize
(N
)1
85
01
95
01
95
01
95
01
95
01
95
01
95
01
95
01
85
01
85
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
01
90
0
Re
spo
nse
Ra
te(%
)9
4.4
96
.49
6.5
96
.59
9.6
98
.69
9.0
99
.59
9.0
98
.79
8.3
97
.99
8.9
99
.49
7.8
98
.8
All
Se
cto
rs1
74
61
88
01
88
21
88
11
94
31
92
21
93
01
94
11
83
21
82
61
86
81
86
11
88
01
88
91
85
91
87
8
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
37
94
62
48
24
77
46
74
77
47
54
73
48
1.0
46
1.0
45
84
58
46
54
65
45
74
65
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r9
82
49
26
22
66
26
92
54
27
62
81
25
12
45
24
92
39
25
42
63
23
32
43
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e4
75
48
85
02
48
44
92
49
24
85
49
34
64
47
4.0
51
55
02
50
85
12
48
95
19
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
79
46
81
63
66
54
71
56
99
69
46
94
63
66
46
64
66
62
65
36
49
68
06
51
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
38
12
91
19
11
31
30
13
91
55
14
71
47
12
71
22
12
71
23
13
51
73
12
9
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts1
78
20
61
82
18
11
93
19
31
98
18
71
80
17
21
88
17
81
81
18
71
65
18
0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s5
31
56
16
71
90
19
81
84
17
31
69
14
81
59
15
41
62
15
11
47
14
81
53
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
44
19
01
68
17
01
94
18
31
68
19
11
61
18
81
82
19
51
98
18
01
94
18
9
19
. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acr
oe
con
om
y b
y S
ect
or
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
2.5
2.3
1.6
1.5
6.0
4.2
4.1
3.0
5.2
4.3
3.1
5.6
1.9
0.1
2.9
2.2
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r1
.22
.72
.10
.63
.72
.43
.13
.13
.02
.72
.1-0
.3-0
.6-1
.10
.7-0
.4
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e0
.74
.34
.53
.86
.72
.94
.72
.94
.25
.34
.74
.12
.72
.12
.83
.1
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 8
.36
.96
.05
.48
.95
.67
.27
.09
.39
.46
.56
.64
.41
.68
.53
.3
12
.71
6.2
14
.11
1.4
25
.21
5.2
19
.01
6.0
21
.82
1.6
16
.41
6.1
8.4
2.8
14
.98
.3
20
. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acr
oe
con
om
y b
y S
ect
or
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
10
.71
3.0
12
.11
2.7
13
.91
1.0
13
.41
2.0
13
.31
3.5
13
.01
4.2
10
.31
2.7
13
.51
2.6
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r3
.27
.86
.26
.68
.35
.97
.28
.47
.27
.17
.46
.04
.37
.06
.75
.6
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e1
4.5
14
.61
3.9
14
.01
5.1
11
.41
3.4
13
.31
3.3
14
.01
4.3
13
.91
3.9
15
.41
2.5
15
.7
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 2
3.8
20
.71
7.9
20
.02
0.7
16
.62
0.7
19
.81
9.0
20
.81
8.8
21
.91
7.9
20
.52
2.0
18
.9
52
.25
6.2
50
.15
3.3
58
.14
4.9
54
.65
3.5
52
.75
5.3
53
.65
5.9
46
.45
5.5
54
.75
2.8
21
. B
usi
ne
ss C
on
fid
en
ce I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s b
y S
ect
or:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
3.2
3.2
1.9
2.0
3.7
2.5
4.3
4.3
5.1
5.3
2.9
4.3
1.6
0.1
2.0
0.9
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r1
.32
.11
.41
.23
.01
.93
.32
.12
.31
.21
.60
.1-0
.80
.30
.1-1
.1
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e4
.25
.14
.24
.25
.14
.15
.55
.05
.95
.25
.24
.64
.12
.53
.11
.8
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 7
.88
.67
.87
.78
.26
.57
.58
.88
.59
.46
.49
.07
.25
.65
.92
.6
16
.61
8.9
15
.21
5.1
20
.11
5.0
20
.52
0.2
21
.82
1.0
16
.21
8.0
12
.18
.41
1.1
4.1
22
. E
mp
loy
me
nt
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
10
.09
.59
.11
0.1
8.4
7.8
10
.48
.79
.81
0.5
8.5
10
.27
.37
.78
.69
.4
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r3
.06
.16
.05
.36
.44
.86
.66
.55
.14
.34
.44
.62
.95
.65
.44
.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e1
2.4
11
.31
0.9
11
.31
0.3
9.6
10
.51
0.7
10
.79
.71
1.9
10
.51
0.6
11
.51
0.1
12
.1
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 2
2.8
3.6
13
.91
5.6
16
.31
3.0
16
.31
4.4
13
.91
3.9
11
.81
5.2
13
.21
4.6
16
.11
4.1
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
48
.33
0.4
39
.84
2.3
41
.53
5.2
43
.84
0.3
39
.53
8.3
36
.64
0.5
34
.13
9.4
40
.14
0.1
23
. D
riv
ers
of
ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
by
ty
pe
of
bu
sin
ess
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Imp
ort
er
1.0
3.0
3.0
1.8
5.9
3.0
4.9
3.4
4.5
2.3
5.1
2.4
0.8
0.1
2.6
0.4
Ex
po
rte
r0
.90
.5-0
.30
.20
.50
.80
.30
.10
.20
.70
.30
.60
.30
.50
.10
.6
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
1.8
1.2
2.1
1.0
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.7
2.8
0.4
1.2
0.3
-0.3
-1.2
0.6
0.6
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
6.4
11
.49
.37
.91
6.6
10
.01
3.2
11
.81
4.2
18
.29
.81
2.8
7.5
3.3
11
.66
.6
Ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x1
0.0
16
.21
4.1
10
.92
5.2
15
.11
9.0
15
.92
1.8
21
.71
6.4
16
.08
.42
.81
4.9
8.3
24
. D
riv
ers
of
ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
by
ty
pe
of
bu
sin
ess
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Imp
ort
er
9.5
7.5
8.7
7.8
10
.37
.29
.48
.88
.47
.31
0.3
7.8
7.8
9.9
7.5
7.9
Ex
po
rte
r1
.30
.80
.81
.51
.01
.40
.71
.01
.11
.31
.50
.70
.80
.61
.01
.8
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
4.8
6.8
4.9
4.5
5.0
3.6
4.7
3.5
4.5
4.1
4.6
4.2
2.3
4.1
4.0
5.1
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
36
.64
0.9
35
.83
8.2
41
.73
2.6
39
.84
0.3
38
.64
2.6
37
.24
3.0
35
.54
0.9
42
.13
8.0
Ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
52
.25
6.1
50
.15
2.0
58
.14
4.8
54
.65
3.5
52
.75
5.3
53
.55
5.7
46
.45
5.6
54
.65
2.8
25
. D
riv
ers
of
ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
by
Siz
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Sm
all
(<
50
)6
.91
2.0
10
.47
.11
9.0
9.7
14
.41
0.8
17
.41
8.2
12
.91
2.5
6.3
2.5
12
.76
.5
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
1.8
2.6
2.3
1.7
4.0
3.6
2.5
3.1
3.6
3.0
2.8
2.6
1.3
0.2
2.1
1.8
Larg
e (
20
0 a
nd
Up
)1
.41
.51
.32
.22
.21
.92
.12
.10
.80
.40
.70
.90
.7-0
.10
.2-0
.1
Ma
cro
eco
no
mic
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
10
.01
6.2
14
.01
0.9
25
.21
5.2
19
.01
6.0
21
.82
1.6
16
.41
6.0
8.4
2.6
15
.08
.3
20
15
TA
BLE
2B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
Na
tio
na
l2
01
22
01
32
01
4
16
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 North Central Zone
Business Outlook
Respondents in the North Central zone were
pessimistic on business activities in the review
quarter as overall confidence index stood at –5.5
index points, down by 35.7 point from the level
achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2014. At
30.2 points, respondents were more optimistic about
business activities in the next quarter (Fig. 9).
The pessimism in the overall business outlook in the
zone were driven by the services (-2.6 points),
industrial (-2.0 point) and construction (-1.2 point)
sectors (Table 3 Sections 2 & 14).
Respondents’ pessimism in the volume of total order
and financial condition of the firms, lessened the
volume of business activity in the current quarter.
Similarly, respondents pessimism on access to credit
worsened their financial condition in the review
quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity
position) of the firms at –20.8 points in the current
quarter was driven by services (-8.1 points)
construction (-5.8 points), industrial (-5.2 points),
and wholesale/retail trade (-1.7 points), (Table 3
sections 5 & 15).
Respondents in the zone cited financial problems,
high interest rate, insufficient power supply,
competition, unfavourable economic climate, access
to credit, unfavourable political climate, unclear
economic laws and insufficient demand as major
constraints to the growth of business activities (Table
3 Section 8).
Respondent firms in the zone expected naira to
depreciate in the current quarter and appreciate in the
next quarter. Inflation and borrowing rate are
expected to fall in the current and next quarters.
(Tables 3 Sections 9 & 10).
The respondent firms by type of business showed that
“neither importer nor exporter” category constituted
the majority with 78.6 per cent, followed by
“importer” 10.1 per cent, “both importer and
exporter” 9.0 per cent and “exporter” 2.3 per cent
(Table 3 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Zero Line
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Fig.9a: North Central Indices: Current Quarter
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Zero Line
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Fig.9b: North Central Indices: Next Quarter
17
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Ov
era
ll B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
6.4
28
.61
1.7
19
.83
2.3
25
.31
3.5
20
.61
2.7
17
.12
2.9
30
.22
3.4
-1.7
22
.5-5
.5
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
56
.16
6.7
44
.84
9.4
59
.15
0.3
49
.25
2.0
39
.55
5.7
50
.96
5.9
52
.94
8.0
48
.44
3.1
2.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
16
.73
7.3
2.6
10
.52
1.9
21
.91
3.8
16
.92
5.7
2.9
20
.92
9.4
33
.3-4
.41
.6-9
.3
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r3
7.5
32
.61
3.0
9.3
40
.72
5.0
1.8
28
.6-1
.91
0.2
34
.09
.16
.1-8
.53
0.2
-8.3
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e-4
.72
3.4
13
.22
5.6
42
.22
6.4
12
.62
7.1
12
.42
9.9
32
.43
7.5
31
.15
.94
0.5
1.2
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
10
.02
6.0
15
.62
5.8
28
.12
6.6
18
.81
4.5
11
.81
7.6
11
.23
2.8
19
.3-3
.91
8.5
-6.4
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
16
.76
.72
9.0
42
.92
6.9
48
.41
8.5
-3.2
6.9
26
.72
4.0
30
.81
8.5
-10
.72
8.6
3.8
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts0
.01
5.6
18
.22
5.0
24
.1-3
.02
0.6
11
.42
1.2
-9.1
-2.9
3.0
-14
.32
.9-2
.6-4
.8
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s0
.01
0.0
9.4
6.5
13
.22
8.1
15
.23
4.3
9.4
18
.93
.45
3.1
24
.1-5
.93
8.7
-3.0
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
0.0
61
.56
.33
0.3
45
.23
4.4
20
.61
3.3
9.5
33
.32
2.2
41
.94
3.2
-3.1
15
.2-1
7.9
3.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
55
.66
9.3
42
.95
0.0
56
.24
7.9
45
.04
7.9
41
.45
1.5
56
.76
9.1
46
.05
2.9
46
.03
8.7
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r6
2.5
60
.54
2.6
27
.86
6.1
40
.43
6.4
55
.63
2.7
42
.95
1.1
31
.83
6.7
42
.64
6.5
31
.3
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e5
3.1
62
.84
9.5
51
.16
1.4
60
.45
2.9
60
.04
4.9
67
.05
5.0
76
.15
7.3
54
.94
1.7
51
.8
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
62
.07
0.2
43
.85
7.0
56
.34
8.4
54
.75
0.0
37
.55
4.4
44
.06
8.7
58
.54
1.9
54
.64
4.3
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
38
.98
3.3
61
.38
5.7
61
.57
7.4
63
.05
4.8
44
.86
0.0
52
.06
9.2
81
.54
2.9
57
.15
3.8
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts0
.06
8.8
36
.45
2.8
44
.83
3.3
47
.15
7.1
54
.53
6.4
42
.96
3.6
45
.74
5.7
55
.33
5.7
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s0
.06
3.3
43
.84
5.2
57
.95
0.0
48
.55
7.1
37
.54
8.6
55
.27
5.0
44
.84
1.2
58
.14
8.5
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
0.0
66
.73
4.4
48
.55
9.5
34
.46
1.8
30
.01
9.0
72
.23
0.6
67
.46
3.6
37
.54
8.5
43
.6
4.
Bu
sin
ess
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
19
.22
5.3
3.9
12
.01
9.2
16
.42
0.0
14
.11
.41
9.1
1.5
20
.61
9.0
-2.9
15
.9-2
4.0
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r6
.33
7.2
9.3
11
.13
9.0
13
.55
.52
2.2
7.7
-4.1
21
.31
3.6
8.2
-4.3
18
.6-4
1.7
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e1
4.4
23
.47
.72
7.8
22
.92
3.1
19
.53
5.3
11
.23
6.1
26
.13
4.1
24
.32
.92
1.4
-7.2
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 3
1.3
28
.21
8.0
26
.82
3.7
20
.31
6.4
24
.44
.42
7.2
11
.21
9.4
31
.93
.96
.2-2
0.0
5.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
In
de
x1
8.7
31
.21
8.6
31
.33
5.7
25
.82
3.7
27
.49
.22
2.3
21
.12
8.4
27
.16
.42
0.3
-7.2
Vo
lum
e o
f T
ota
l O
rde
r B
oo
k I
nd
ex
13
.13
2.7
20
.02
9.0
34
.32
7.9
25
.22
7.4
11
.52
2.6
20
.62
9.9
30
.06
.11
6.9
-12
.7
Cre
dit
Acc
ess
In
de
x-1
3.4
6.4
-4.0
7.1
7.8
7.3
7.2
15
.72
.03
.76
.09
.68
.0-6
.6-4
.7-1
6.2
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
dit
ion
In
de
x1
1.7
27
.41
0.9
21
.22
5.1
19
.11
6.3
24
.66
.12
3.9
15
.42
2.8
24
.01
.21
3.8
-20
.8
Av
era
ge
Ca
pa
city
Uti
liza
tio
n
10
.12
9.5
16
.52
7.0
25
.72
6.4
22
.62
6.3
12
.42
7.3
20
.92
7.2
28
.09
.52
3.1
-6.9
6.
Bu
sin
ess
Ou
tlo
ok
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
In
de
x6
9.4
75
.06
1.4
61
.25
9.5
60
.56
3.7
58
.95
3.9
66
.75
9.4
75
.76
3.7
49
.75
4.7
48
.6
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
52
.74
8.1
40
.83
9.9
39
.13
5.5
47
.74
4.6
29
.44
4.0
40
.95
3.0
43
.43
5.8
40
.93
4.7
7.
Bu
sin
ess
wit
h E
xp
an
sio
n P
lan
s (i
n p
er
cen
t):
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
27
.84
9.3
19
.54
1.3
39
.76
4.4
60
.05
9.2
57
.17
0.6
59
.76
1.8
58
.76
6.2
68
.36
5.3
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r2
5.0
58
.11
8.5
15
.43
2.2
61
.55
6.4
66
.15
7.7
57
.15
9.6
50
.05
1.0
68
.17
2.1
72
.9
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e4
6.9
66
.03
8.5
51
.15
9.0
68
.16
6.3
78
.86
4.0
77
.37
1.2
64
.86
7.0
80
.27
3.8
80
.7
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
42
.06
9.5
28
.15
1.6
43
.76
3.3
69
.57
1.0
58
.87
3.5
59
.26
2.7
61
.56
9.5
69
.06
8.6
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
22
.27
3.3
48
.47
1.4
23
.16
4.5
70
.46
1.3
55
.27
0.0
60
.06
1.5
66
.76
3.0
53
.66
5.4
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts0
.06
8.8
15
.23
8.9
24
.15
7.6
61
.86
8.6
57
.66
9.7
54
.36
0.6
62
.98
0.0
65
.86
9.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s0
.08
0.0
43
.84
1.9
57
.96
8.8
72
.79
1.4
62
.57
5.7
62
.16
2.5
51
.75
8.8
76
.76
9.7
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
0.0
59
.06
.35
7.6
57
.16
2.5
73
.56
0.0
59
.57
7.8
61
.16
5.1
63
.67
5.0
78
.86
9.2
20
15
20
14
TA
BLE
3B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
Zo
ne
20
13
20
12
18
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
str
ain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te5
4.2
43
.94
5.0
42
.24
2.4
41
.55
2.1
45
.73
8.6
37
.95
5.6
43
.76
0.0
50
.34
4.7
51
.4
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
47
.13
5.1
31
.73
9.0
33
.43
0.4
47
.23
5.7
24
.92
2.7
40
.63
1.7
43
.43
8.4
28
.83
4.2
La
ck
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
27
.02
3.9
8.3
23
.52
3.7
12
.63
0.6
12
.74
.61
6.0
35
.34
.52
2.0
24
.71
6.6
16
.0
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d3
9.3
30
.51
5.4
22
.92
2.6
19
.03
4.9
52
4.4
11
.52
7.1
36
.73
4.0
25
.13
8.3
28
.43
0.8
Acce
ss t
o C
red
it3
3.6
33
.73
4.5
41
.54
3.2
39
.03
1.5
53
5.3
30
.72
2.7
46
.32
7.8
40
.93
7.7
23
.44
0.2
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s5
6.2
49
.15
7.2
58
.44
9.8
49
.85
3.3
47
.33
9.9
45
.45
4.9
36
.44
2.1
51
.74
7.8
54
.6
Co
mp
eti
tio
n4
8.2
45
.45
0.0
40
.33
7.6
48
.65
3.1
43
.03
3.4
51
.15
6.9
52
.54
9.6
45
.13
5.8
43
.4
La
bo
r P
rob
lem
s7
.58
.62
.88
.85
.7-0
.11
9.8
8.9
-7.8
1.7
24
.9-0
.71
1.0
15
.25
.91
0.1
La
ck
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t1
7.0
6.3
3.6
20
.31
4.0
-2.8
14
.25
11
.40
.09
.72
5.7
6.6
16
.71
4.0
9.1
2.2
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
43
.02
8.2
36
.84
0.8
39
.22
6.7
38
.73
3.0
26
.13
2.6
38
.33
5.6
41
.63
4.7
26
.43
4.8
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
co
no
mic
Cli
ma
te4
5.4
38
.14
6.4
44
.64
0.0
31
.45
0.3
54
1.6
28
.73
9.9
48
.04
0.6
49
.64
4.9
36
.34
1.5
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly4
8.5
57
.37
1.0
65
.86
2.2
65
.46
6.2
67
.74
8.1
61
.46
4.7
60
.56
8.3
65
.26
8.6
49
.3
9.
Bu
sin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te1
6.5
15
.21
4.6
6.7
15
.14
.93
.72
0.3
-10
.43
6.8
15
.11
5.6
12
.9-0
.36
.6-7
.2
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te3
9.6
20
.46
.53
4.2
30
.61
8.1
14
.95
.17
.2-4
.96
.01
9.5
10
.93
.53
.8-3
.8
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
7.7
11
.7-4
.21
7.5
30
.61
5.7
20
.61
0.3
6.9
-0.9
8.3
4.8
14
.62
.34
.4-7
.2
10
. B
usin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te2
8.6
20
.12
3.1
3.4
12
.61
2.2
23
.12
3.7
0.3
36
.52
4.6
19
.21
5.4
21
.11
3.1
13
.9
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te2
5.5
15
.4-3
.72
3.0
25
.72
0.9
2.8
-1.7
9.8
-6.0
-6.0
9.0
-6.6
-13
.0-1
8.8
-11
.6
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
-11
.16
.1-9
.71
2.9
20
.98
.8-2
.31
.11
1.2
-4.3
7.7
-1.8
-4.0
-10
.1-1
3.1
-23
.1
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y T
yp
e o
f B
usin
ess
Imp
ort
er
18
.11
3.4
10
.99
.81
5.7
16
.61
6.0
12
.01
1.8
11
.72
1.1
11
.72
0.9
15
.71
5.0
10
.1
Ex
po
rte
r3
.40
.91
.10
.92
.01
.70
.61
.70
.92
.32
.92
.42
.63
.21
.32
.3
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
8.4
13
.11
0.3
10
.35
.78
.11
3.7
3.7
7.5
9.7
6.9
4.2
9.7
6.1
4.7
9.0
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
70
.17
2.6
77
.77
9.0
76
.67
3.5
69
.48
2.6
79
.87
6.3
69
.18
1.7
66
.97
5.1
79
.17
8.6
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y E
mp
loy
me
nt
Siz
e
Sm
all
(<
50
)8
6.6
82
.28
4.9
87
.68
6.0
80
.58
7.4
86
.68
5.3
84
.58
5.1
90
.48
5.1
84
.79
0.0
79
.2
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
9.1
11
.71
0.3
8.6
8.6
13
.79
.48
.91
0.1
10
.31
2.0
8.7
10
.91
1.3
8.1
13
.6
La
rge
(2
00
an
d U
p)
4.4
6.1
4.6
3.7
5.4
5.5
3.1
4.6
4.6
5.2
2.9
0.9
4.0
4.0
1.9
7.2
No
Re
sp
on
se
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y S
ecto
r
All
Se
cto
rs2
98
34
43
50
34
83
50
34
43
50
35
03
47
35
03
50
33
43
50
34
63
20
34
6
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r3
67
57
77
67
37
38
07
17
06
86
76
86
36
86
37
5
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r1
64
35
45
45
95
25
56
35
24
94
74
44
94
74
34
8
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
12
89
49
19
08
39
18
78
58
99
71
11
88
10
31
02
84
83
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
11
81
32
12
81
28
13
51
28
12
81
31
13
61
36
12
51
34
13
51
29
13
01
40
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
02
93
12
82
63
12
73
12
93
02
52
62
72
82
82
6
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
18
32
33
36
29
33
34
35
33
33
35
33
35
35
38
42
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
03
03
23
13
83
23
33
53
23
72
93
22
93
43
13
3
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s0
28
32
33
42
32
34
30
42
36
36
43
44
32
33
39
14
. B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r C
on
trib
uti
on
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r2
.08
.10
.62
.34
.64
.73
.13
.45
.20
.64
.06
.06
.0-0
.90
.3-2
.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r2
.04
.12
.01
.46
.93
.80
.35
.1-0
.31
.44
.61
.20
.9-1
.24
.1-1
.2
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-2.0
6.4
3.4
6.6
10
.07
.03
.16
.63
.28
.31
0.3
9.9
9.1
1.7
10
.60
.3
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 4
.01
0.0
5.7
9.5
10
.99
.96
.95
.44
.66
.94
.01
3.2
7.4
-1.4
7.5
-2.6
15
. B
usin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r2
.35
.50
.92
.64
.03
.54
.62
.90
.33
.70
.34
.23
.4-0
.63
.1-5
.2
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r0
.34
.71
.41
.76
.62
.00
.94
.01
.2-0
.62
.91
.81
.1-0
.62
.5-5
.8
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
6.2
6.4
2.0
7.2
5.4
6.1
4.9
8.6
2.9
10
.08
.39
.07
.10
.95
.6-1
.7
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 1
2.4
10
.86
.69
.89
.17
.66
.09
.11
.71
0.6
4.0
7.8
12
.31
.42
.5-8
.1
20
15
20
14
TA
BLE
3B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
No
rth
Ce
ntr
al
Zo
ne
20
13
20
12
19
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 North East Zone
Respondents in the North East zone were more
optimistic on business activities in Q4, 2015. At 21.2
points, overall confidence index rose by 8.4 index
points, compared with the level achieved in the
corresponding quarter of 2014. Respondents were
more optimistic about business activities in the next
quarter as the index stood at 74.8 points (Fig. 10).
The optimism in the overall business outlook in the
zone could be attributed to services (8.4 points),
industrial (6.4 points), construction (4.0 points) and
wholesale and retail trade (2.4 points) sectors (Table
4 Sections 2 & 14).
The volume of total order and financial condition of
the firms in the zone, buoyed the volume of business
activity in the current quarter. Similarly, respondent
optimism on access to credit by the firms upped their
financial condition in the review quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity position)
of the firms which stood at 18.4 points in the current
quarter was driven by services (6.8 points), wholesale
and retail trade (5.2 points) industrial (4.4 points) and
construction (2.0 points) sectors (Table 4 Sections 5
& 15).
Business Outlook
Respondents in the zone cited insufficient power
supply, competition, financial problems, high interest
rate, unfavourable economic climate, unclear
economic laws and unfavourable political climate as
factors limiting the growth of business activities in
the zone (Table 4 Section 8).
Respondent firms expect naira exchange rate to
appreciate in the current and next quarters. Inflation
and borrowing rates are also expected to rise in both
quarters (Tables 4 Sections 9).
The respondent firms by type of business showed that
“neither importer nor exporter” category constituted
the majority with 84.4 per cent, followed by
“Importer” with 9.6 per cent and “both importer and
exporter” with 4.4 per cent and “exporter” with 1.2
per cent (Table 4 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.10a: North East Indices: Current Quarter
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.10b: North East Indices: Next Quarter
20
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Ov
era
ll B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
No
rth
Ea
st
39
.05
.61
5.8
-9.3
29
.81
1.8
20
.77
.02
1.6
7.5
18
.81
2.8
8.8
10
.43
3.6
21
.2
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
No
rth
Ea
st
44
.44
8.4
47
.65
3.9
69
.64
8.8
50
.94
9.2
61
.34
8.0
60
.06
3.6
59
.66
6.8
57
.27
4.8
2.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r4
1.5
4.7
10
.0-3
.42
3.0
15
.01
7.2
-16
.71
2.5
-2.6
14
.01
8.0
0.0
18
.03
9.2
32
.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r4
0.9
4.7
12
.2-1
0.3
41
.91
3.2
45
.51
7.8
6.5
22
.6-1
0.8
0.0
16
.28
.12
8.1
25
.6
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
29
.73
.92
2.7
-8.3
43
.81
1.5
30
.00
.07
.8-3
.93
0.8
12
.12
4.2
4.5
21
.19
.2
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
46
.17
.51
5.8
-12
.61
9.1
9.9
6.8
19
.84
1.6
12
.82
4.5
15
.50
.01
1.3
39
.42
1.9
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
18
.52
8.6
20
.0-1
6.7
24
.01
6.0
47
.83
4.6
50
.05
2.6
29
.22
1.7
0.0
4.5
62
.09
.1
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
0.0
-12
.9-6
.3-1
8.5
31
.0-6
.9-3
.4-1
0.3
21
.1-1
0.5
-4.2
29
.24
.22
0.0
21
.13
7.5
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
0.0
8.6
41
.9-4
.31
2.5
10
.0-2
3.3
53
.34
0.0
-10
.04
0.0
12
.0-2
8.0
-12
.01
5.0
24
.0
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s0
.01
5.8
9.7
-21
.11
0.3
22
.21
4.3
3.2
55
.02
0.0
32
.00
.02
4.0
32
.02
5.0
16
.0
3.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r4
3.4
45
.35
1.7
58
.65
9.0
36
.73
7.9
33
.35
7.5
35
.95
0.0
56
.05
0.0
68
.05
4.9
78
.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r5
0.0
44
.23
4.1
66
.77
4.4
60
.55
4.5
48
.95
8.1
51
.64
5.9
51
.45
1.4
51
.46
5.6
64
.1
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
62
.24
4.7
45
.35
6.9
77
.54
6.2
57
.54
7.4
54
.94
1.2
60
.05
9.1
71
.26
3.6
68
.47
6.9
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
32
.45
4.7
51
.84
5.0
67
.85
3.2
51
.36
0.7
68
.85
6.4
70
.47
6.0
59
.87
4.2
51
.47
6.0
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
63
.08
5.7
60
.01
6.7
60
.04
4.0
47
.86
9.2
66
.76
8.4
83
.36
5.2
60
.98
1.8
18
.07
7.3
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
0.0
35
.53
4.4
51
.96
9.0
41
.46
5.5
52
.06
8.4
42
.15
4.2
82
.66
6.7
76
.08
4.2
75
.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
0.0
40
.06
7.7
53
.27
8.1
56
.74
0.0
70
.05
5.0
55
.07
6.0
76
.04
4.0
56
.07
5.0
80
.0
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s0
.07
8.9
48
.44
2.1
62
.17
0.4
51
.45
1.6
85
.06
0.0
68
.08
0.0
68
.08
4.0
80
.07
2.0
4.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r1
7.0
31
.31
6.7
20
.72
3.0
8.3
17
.21
8.3
30
.02
0.5
22
.03
4.0
6.0
24
.02
1.6
22
.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r4
0.9
18
.6-9
.81
5.4
27
.91
3.2
52
.34
0.0
29
.03
8.7
27
.02
7.0
21
.62
9.7
31
.31
2.8
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
54
.13
0.3
25
.36
.93
0.0
9.0
36
.32
1.8
47
.12
9.4
26
.24
3.9
37
.92
8.8
10
.52
0.0
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 2
1.6
29
.22
4.6
25
.25
.23
0.6
15
.42
5.0
61
.02
5.6
31
.65
3.6
22
.72
1.6
20
.41
7.7
5.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
21
.62
2.1
19
.31
4.6
21
.01
9.2
27
.02
8.4
33
.72
0.5
30
.83
2.8
29
.61
6.4
9.2
16
.4
Vo
lum
e o
f T
ota
l O
rde
r B
oo
k I
nd
ex
8.7
24
.31
9.3
12
.82
2.1
14
.63
2.1
24
.74
2.2
14
.03
2.4
31
.62
8.8
21
.61
4.1
22
.8
Cre
dit
Acce
ss I
nd
ex
14
.10
.75
.2-1
0.7
12
.35
.61
8.1
2.7
13
.13
.04
.42
0.0
9.6
1.6
3.6
9.6
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
dit
ion
In
de
x2
6.6
28
.41
8.3
18
.21
8.8
17
.82
6.7
25
.14
6.2
27
.52
7.6
43
.22
3.2
25
.21
9.3
18
.4
Av
era
ge
Ca
pa
cit
y U
tili
za
tio
n
46
.93
0.4
24
.22
4.6
18
.42
3.7
33
.52
8.4
41
.72
5.0
28
.83
3.6
22
.42
2.4
28
.92
4.4
6.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
63
.96
8.5
64
.57
5.3
80
.66
2.4
64
.66
5.6
64
.87
3.0
63
.66
7.2
68
.87
8.0
72
.77
6.4
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
66
.45
2.6
35
.95
1.1
51
.13
5.5
41
.85
1.2
50
.34
3.0
42
.44
7.2
54
.45
9.2
52
.64
9.2
7.
Bu
sin
ess w
ith
Ex
pa
nsio
n P
lan
s (
in p
er
ce
nt)
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r5
7.7
53
.13
3.3
65
.56
0.7
26
.77
7.6
75
.07
5.0
71
.86
2.0
86
.06
2.0
72
.06
6.0
72
.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r7
2.7
58
.12
6.8
53
.86
2.8
10
.57
7.3
80
.07
1.0
87
.17
0.3
83
.85
9.5
83
.89
0.3
74
.4
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
40
.57
8.9
65
.34
7.2
65
.07
.77
5.0
83
.37
6.5
78
.47
5.4
80
.37
2.7
80
.38
0.7
72
.3
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
18
.84
7.2
38
.64
2.3
47
.83
5.1
63
.27
5.9
84
.46
9.2
73
.57
9.4
68
.07
7.3
64
.67
1.9
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
70
.47
1.4
40
.05
5.6
60
.03
6.0
65
.27
6.9
72
.26
3.2
75
.07
3.9
60
.97
2.7
62
.55
4.5
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
0.0
41
.93
1.3
33
.33
1.0
17
.27
2.4
65
.58
4.2
73
.76
6.7
83
.37
0.8
72
.06
8.4
75
.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
0.0
54
.35
4.8
53
.25
0.0
26
.75
0.0
80
.09
0.0
80
.07
6.0
92
.07
6.0
80
.06
5.0
80
.0
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s0
.01
5.8
29
.01
5.8
51
.76
3.0
65
.78
0.6
90
.06
0.0
76
.06
8.0
64
.08
4.0
65
.07
6.0
20
15
20
14
20
12
TA
BLE
4B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
No
rth
Ea
st
Zo
ne
20
13
21
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
str
ain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te5
2.1
44
.63
3.3
37
.93
7.2
48
.52
2.8
43
.34
5.7
37
.53
9.2
43
.63
2.0
43
.03
2.3
41
.8
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
27
.74
2.4
33
.83
4.4
30
.34
1.5
28
.03
4.6
41
.53
8.0
32
.24
0.6
27
.23
9.0
36
.53
5.0
La
ck
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
13
.72
0.7
16
.32
3.6
9.3
15
.41
8.6
34
.93
0.7
24
.02
6.0
27
.02
0.0
21
.82
6.9
17
.2
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d1
9.3
17
.01
5.2
19
.11
2.6
26
.01
6.7
27
.92
5.9
23
.82
2.8
31
.41
6.0
27
.82
6.3
22
.2
Acce
ss t
o C
red
it3
2.0
25
.92
4.9
14
.22
4.2
23
.02
3.6
23
.22
1.9
25
.31
9.0
16
.81
5.8
33
.23
1.9
27
.4
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s3
6.0
47
.14
5.4
46
.15
0.2
56
.73
5.5
51
.84
6.5
52
.04
3.0
48
.03
9.6
51
.64
6.6
44
.4
Co
mp
eti
tio
n2
3.5
33
.53
8.3
21
.14
3.9
31
.52
5.2
34
.63
9.2
40
.33
6.8
32
.42
3.2
31
.63
3.7
47
.6
La
bo
r P
rob
lem
s7
.20
.71
.40
.3-6
.7-9
.32
.71
9.2
19
.18
.84
.41
5.6
-2.8
4.4
9.2
-2.2
La
ck
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t3
2.0
12
.41
0.6
13
.31
.22
.81
3.1
29
.62
6.1
14
.52
3.4
29
.81
2.6
17
.62
4.7
7.0
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
36
.03
4.6
42
.13
9.9
32
.45
0.1
29
.84
3.1
44
.24
8.5
46
.44
6.0
37
.63
6.4
42
.82
8.6
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
co
no
mic
Cli
ma
te5
8.9
46
.34
6.9
48
.93
2.2
47
.23
3.8
45
.05
0.5
45
.83
8.8
47
.84
1.0
47
.45
1.8
40
.0
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly5
0.1
58
1.4
85
.47
6.1
77
.28
0.5
55
.86
8.2
70
.67
6.0
67
.27
1.0
77
.28
3.0
68
.96
1.2
9.
Bu
sin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te1
9.1
-18
.7-1
7.3
-27
.52
.0-7
.31
8.8
-0.7
10
.64
.5-9
.61
4.8
-48
.8-9
.21
9.7
14
.4
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te2
3.3
32
.91
2.0
16
.04
8.5
30
.32
8.4
9.0
15
.61
5.0
7.6
0.0
37
.63
1.2
0.8
18
.0
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
7.9
35
.34
9.3
22
.93
3.1
10
.41
0.4
19
.11
8.6
4.5
8.0
-6.0
15
.2-0
.41
0.8
6.8
10
. B
usin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te2
3.6
9.7
21
.34
0.0
19
.71
0.8
16
.08
.71
6.1
17
.05
.61
8.4
-28
.01
8.0
33
.32
8.8
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te8
.32
1.1
41
.01
0.7
27
.82
3.7
11
.71
3.0
13
.61
.08
.48
.02
2.4
8.8
-13
.36
.8
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
-5.8
19
.03
0.0
20
.31
3.8
9.8
6.0
19
.11
3.1
2.5
14
.41
6.8
14
.00
.4-1
.61
.6
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y T
yp
e o
f B
usin
ess
Imp
ort
er
39
.88
.08
.63
.61
8.1
6.6
16
.19
.72
1.6
11
.01
0.0
5.2
3.6
10
.42
3.2
9.6
Ex
po
rte
r5
.41
.40
.70
.00
.01
.01
.71
.31
.50
.00
.00
.00
.01
.24
.41
.2
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
7.1
4.8
4.8
6.8
7.7
3.5
11
.76
.01
1.6
5.5
4.0
5.6
1.6
2.8
4.8
4.4
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
47
.78
5.8
85
.98
9.6
74
.28
8.9
70
.68
2.9
65
.38
3.5
86
.08
9.2
94
.88
5.6
67
.68
4.8
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y E
mp
loy
me
nt
Siz
e
Sm
all
(<
50
)6
6.4
84
.48
0.3
82
.58
0.6
83
.38
0.3
78
.37
5.4
73
.07
0.8
82
.08
2.0
80
.07
8.0
78
.0
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
15
.81
2.1
14
.81
2.1
14
.41
1.5
15
.41
5.4
14
.12
1.5
22
.01
3.2
12
.01
4.0
15
.61
8.4
La
rge
(2
00
an
d U
p)
17
.83
.54
.85
.45
.05
.24
.36
.41
0.6
5.5
7.2
4.8
6.0
6.0
6.4
3.6
No
Re
sp
on
se
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y S
ecto
r
All
Se
cto
rs2
41
28
92
90
28
02
99
28
72
99
29
91
99
19
92
50
25
02
50
25
02
49
25
0
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r5
36
46
05
86
16
0.0
58
60
40
39
50
50
50
50
51
50
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r2
24
34
13
94
33
8.0
44
45
31
31
37
37
37
37
32
39
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
37
76
75
72
80
78
.08
07
85
15
16
56
66
66
65
76
5
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
12
91
06
11
41
11
11
51
11
11
71
16
77
78
98
97
97
97
10
99
6
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
02
12
01
82
52
5.0
23
26
18
19
24
23
23
22
50
22
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
27
31
32
27
29
29
.02
92
91
91
92
42
42
42
51
92
4
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
03
53
14
73
23
0.0
30
30
20
20
25
25
25
25
20
25
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s0
19
31
19
29
27
35
31
20
20
25
25
25
25
20
25
14
. B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r C
on
trib
uti
on
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r9
.11
.02
.1-0
.74
.73
.13
.3-3
.32
.5-0
.52
.83
.60
.03
.68
.06
.4
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r3
.70
.71
.7-1
.46
.01
.76
.72
.71
.03
.5-1
.60
.02
.41
.23
.64
.0
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
4.6
1.0
5.9
-2.1
11
.73
.18
.00
.02
.0-1
.08
.03
.26
.41
.24
.82
.4
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r2
4.7
2.8
6.2
-5.0
7.4
3.8
2.7
7.7
16
.15
.09
.66
.00
.04
.41
7.3
8.4
15
. B
usin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r3
.76
.93
.44
.34
.71
.73
.33
.76
.04
.04
.46
.81
.24
.84
.44
.4
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r3
.72
.8-1
.42
.14
.01
.77
.76
.04
.56
.04
.04
.03
.24
.44
.02
.0
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
8.3
8.0
6.6
1.8
8.0
2.4
9.7
5.7
12
.17
.56
.81
1.6
10
.07
.62
.45
.2
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 1
1.5
10
.79
.71
0.0
2.0
11
.86
.09
.72
3.6
10
.11
2.4
20
.88
.88
.48
.96
.8
20
15
20
14
20
12
TA
BLE
4B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
No
rth
Ea
st Z
on
e2
01
3
22
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 North West Zone
Business Outlook
Respondents in the North West zone were more
optimistic on business activities in the quarter under
review. At 15.4 points, overall confidence index rose
by 2.7 index points above the level achieved in the
corresponding quarter of 2014. Respondents were
more optimistic about business activities in the next
quarter as the index will be expected to rise to 50.1
points (Fig. 11).
The optimism in the overall business outlook in the
zone could be adduced to the contributions of
wholesale and retail trade (7.8 points) services (6.4
points) and industrial (2.9 points) (Table 5 Sections 2
& 14).
The volume of total order book and financial
condition of the firms in the zone, buoyed the volume
of business activity in the current quarter. Similarly,
the optimism in access to credit by the firms upped
their financial condition in the review quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity position)
of the firms which stood at 5.2 points in the current
quarter was driven by services (4.9 points) and
wholesale & retail trade (2.0 points) sectors (Table 5
Sections 5 & 15).
Respondents in the zone cited high interest rate,
insufficient power supply, financial problems,
unclear economic laws, access to credit and
unfavourable economic climate as limiting factors to
the growth of business activities (Table 5 Section 8).
Respondent firms expected naira to depreciate in the
current quarter and appreciate in the next quarter.
Inflation and borrowing rates were expected to rise
in the current quarter, and fall in the next quarter
(Table 5 Sections 9 & 10).
The respondent firms by type of business showed
that “neither importer nor exporter” category
constituted the majority with 69.6 per cent, followed
by “importer” 14.8 per cent, “both importer and
exporter” 13.9 per cent, “and “exporter” 1.7 per cent
(Table 5 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.11a: North West Indices: Current Quarter
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.11b: North West Indices: Next Quarter
23
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4
Co
nfi
de
nce
Ind
ex:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
No
rth
Wes
t2.
45.
16.
015
.519
.26.
322
.319
.525
.617
.910
.612
.7-0
.914
.520
.415
.4
Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
No
rth
Wes
t34
.449
.242
.554
.658
.041
.764
.558
.051
.349
.754
.458
.742
.462
.359
.950
.1
2. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
uar
ter
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r0.
9-1
8.7
-9.3
11.1
23.0
4.2
14.0
19.8
15.5
6.0
3.1
21.3
-4.3
14.9
7.9
10.8
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r28
.616
.312
.114
.30.
07.
514
.97.
011
.110
.825
.0-1
6.7
-10.
4-1
5.9
6.5
-14.
6
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e8.
58.
813
.116
.126
.67.
427
.05.
419
.314
.84.
57.
5-5
.619
.316
.130
.7
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
7.3
17.9
11.4
19.3
16.8
6.8
28.6
35.3
43.3
32.0
16.2
20.5
9.6
21.8
40.4
17.9
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
-27.
338
.1-1
1.8
-5.3
15.0
-6.7
56.0
52.0
52.0
32.0
37.5
38.5
23.1
18.5
57.1
32.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
-30.
619
.49.
429
.43.
1-2
.919
.434
.348
.621
.29.
73.
2-1
9.4
12.5
20.0
14.7
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
0.0
7.4
10.7
22.6
23.3
10.7
6.9
29.0
32.1
30.3
3.7
25.0
10.3
16.7
53.8
3.2
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
25.0
9.1
28.6
20.0
25.8
30.8
37.0
28.0
40.6
45.2
17.2
17.9
28.6
40.0
33.3
24.2
3. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Se
cto
r: N
ext
Qu
arte
r
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r33
.031
.938
.163
.359
.043
.867
.760
.446
.650
.059
.467
.034
.452
.153
.538
.7
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r57
.167
.436
.447
.651
.235
.061
.734
.947
.237
.863
.635
.739
.654
.563
.831
.7
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e42
.363
.748
.554
.061
.742
.658
.458
.154
.535
.849
.452
.746
.161
.452
.958
.0
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
14.6
44.3
42.9
73.6
56.6
41.5
67.9
68.8
54.2
62.3
50.5
65.0
47.4
73.9
69.3
59.3
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
36.4
66.7
17.6
42.1
55.0
43.3
76.0
48.0
40.0
56.0
54.2
76.9
53.8
81.5
75.0
72.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
36.1
72.2
50.0
47.1
43.8
26.5
74.2
100.
062
.963
.654
.861
.338
.781
.363
.347
.1
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
6.3
25.9
46.4
74.2
56.7
42.9
58.6
71.0
50.0
69.7
44.4
71.9
37.9
66.7
88.5
51.6
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
45.8
0.0
46.4
32.0
71.0
57.7
63.0
52.0
59.4
58.1
48.3
50.0
60.7
66.7
53.3
69.7
4. B
usi
ne
ss C
on
fid
en
ce In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
by
Sect
or:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r14
.73.
3-3
.16.
711
.010
.410
.822
.924
.35.
06.
33.
24.
3-3
.25.
9-4
.3
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r47
.625
.618
.223
.818
.617
.525
.5-4
.78.
313
.511
.4-2
3.8
-16.
74.
50.
0-4
.9
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e32
.47.
713
.113
.818
.18.
527
.014
.025
.07.
4-1
.17.
5-1
.1-3
.414
.98.
0
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r 14
.628
.318
.119
.324
.85.
933
.029
.331
.728
.715
.329
.914
.017
.635
.113
.8
5. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
Ind
ex
14.3
17.2
15.5
20.4
26.0
10.6
24.1
22.1
26.8
21.5
0.3
18.5
5.2
18.3
18.9
13.0
Vo
lum
e o
f To
tal O
rde
r B
oo
k In
de
x14
.616
.612
.522
.523
.58.
324
.123
.328
.818
.84.
416
.55.
517
.718
.613
.9
Cre
dit
Acc
ess
Ind
ex
7.6
7.0
5.4
4.3
7.1
-9.2
-7.3
7.2
15.0
14.7
1.5
9.0
0.0
11.6
12.0
5.5
Fin
anci
al C
on
dit
ion
Ind
ex
19.8
15.4
10.4
14.9
18.3
9.1
24.3
19.3
25.4
15.0
7.9
10.1
3.2
4.9
16.9
5.2
Ave
rage
Cap
acit
y U
tili
zati
on
15
.520
.916
.122
.024
.35.
223
.217
.028
.022
.64.
719
.15.
215
.914
.916
.5
6. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
Ind
ex
60.2
59.3
55.1
64.0
69.1
50.3
73.0
62.9
63.1
59.7
57.1
64.5
44.2
60.9
59.6
55.4
Emp
loym
en
t O
utl
oo
k In
de
x38
.335
.336
.241
.541
.727
.352
.536
.839
.829
.730
.939
.024
.138
.833
.532
.2
7. B
usi
ne
ss w
ith
Exp
ansi
on
Pla
ns
(in
pe
r ce
nt)
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r35
.827
.529
.928
.922
.052
.165
.657
.359
.260
.044
.850
.048
.450
.550
.043
.0
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r71
.462
.875
.823
.848
.862
.589
.465
.161
.154
.170
.552
.447
.956
.865
.251
.2
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e46
.551
.651
.551
.751
.160
.665
.254
.847
.771
.655
.147
.338
.646
.657
.562
.5
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
65.9
47.2
54.3
57.8
50.4
63.6
74.1
60.9
70.8
59.8
55.5
63.2
55.3
48.7
57.1
73.2
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
63.6
71.4
17.6
78.9
50.0
60.0
68.0
40.0
56.0
60.0
70.8
69.2
57.7
55.6
57.1
68.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
11.1
11.1
62.5
64.7
18.8
64.7
67.7
68.6
68.6
42.4
45.2
61.3
41.9
50.0
58.6
67.6
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
75.0
55.6
42.9
48.4
66.7
60.7
82.8
67.7
71.4
69.7
53.8
53.1
65.5
26.7
60.0
80.6
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
58.3
72.7
78.6
44.0
67.7
69.2
77.8
62.5
84.4
67.7
55.2
71.4
57.1
63.3
53.3
75.8
2015
1. O
vera
ll B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y
2014
TAB
LE 5
BU
SIN
ESS
EXP
ECTA
TIO
NS
SUR
VEY
No
rth
We
st Z
on
e20
1220
13
24
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te4
9.7
45
.54
8.5
52
.14
9.7
44
.94
7.2
52
.95
1.2
51
.63
6.0
44
.75
0.7
39
.04
3.0
48
.7
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
40
.23
7.7
44
.53
6.7
38
.44
4.7
38
.03
3.5
37
.84
3.1
28
.53
5.8
39
.43
3.8
33
.53
5.6
La
ck
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
24
.52
1.8
7.5
24
.32
1.3
11
.82
7.2
18
.02
2.9
29
.61
4.4
23
.11
9.9
15
.52
0.8
22
.8
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d3
0.5
19
.72
3.5
25
.52
3.2
32
.32
6.4
28
.23
2.3
35
.33
2.2
34
.43
8.5
33
.81
8.9
23
.5
Acce
ss t
o C
red
it2
5.6
18
.02
9.4
35
.63
2.1
33
.82
1.7
31
.02
8.0
35
.33
2.5
32
.83
7.4
32
.92
7.2
31
.8
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s4
2.0
35
.64
8.3
42
.94
6.9
50
.85
5.0
43
.54
2.9
50
.14
9.6
48
.34
9.3
44
.53
8.4
42
.4
Co
mp
eti
tio
n3
1.6
30
.51
8.9
31
.13
6.7
25
.63
9.9
42
.43
8.8
39
.43
5.6
34
.84
2.9
26
.83
0.9
28
.5
La
bo
r P
rob
lem
s9
.23
0.5
-6.0
4.3
7.0
3.3
11
.15
.69
.71
3.1
3.4
3.6
-3.6
2.9
7.9
9.7
La
ck
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t1
5.7
6.8
16
.37
.18
.91
3.6
21
.46
.01
1.1
16
.55
.01
4.3
11
.91
4.8
11
.51
2.4
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
46
.33
4.2
48
.03
0.7
30
.24
6.3
42
.43
5.1
37
.33
9.6
33
.23
4.5
45
.83
2.5
23
.92
3.8
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
co
no
mic
Cli
ma
te5
2.9
40
.75
2.8
31
.63
4.0
50
.14
2.8
40
.94
0.6
42
.84
2.6
42
.95
1.7
42
.33
2.8
28
.9
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly6
4.0
78
.56
9.3
61
.86
3.5
72
.66
9.5
64
.26
3.4
65
.96
2.9
66
.36
8.3
69
.64
9.6
45
.8
9.
Bu
sin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te-1
3.7
-4.2
-10
.7-9
.1-6
.0-1
5.0
0.0
-3.4
3.7
9.4
10
.05
.5-2
9.4
-2.3
2.0
-0.6
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te2
4.0
17
.91
0.1
15
.52
2.0
24
.13
0.8
26
.41
5.9
22
.61
0.0
15
.31
2.8
22
.04
.61
0.7
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
35
.92
3.3
25
.12
2.9
16
.31
8.9
20
.81
5.2
11
.21
5.0
1.2
12
.71
.53
.21
.15
.8
10
. B
usin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te1
4.6
17
.31
4.6
16
.41
2.6
-6.8
15
.21
0.3
8.6
10
.01
7.6
12
.1-9
.01
2.8
20
.69
.9
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te2
9.8
15
.41
3.1
1.5
8.3
23
.99
.11
1.5
7.2
21
.23
.81
5.6
5.2
-17
.7-8
.3-6
.4
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
24
.08
.79
.50
.31
1.2
16
.11
4.3
17
.21
1.8
14
.71
0.0
17
.65
.2-1
5.9
2.6
-4.3
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y T
yp
e o
f B
usin
ess
Imp
ort
er
19
.51
3.0
12
.01
4.6
11
.71
0.5
9.1
12
.91
1.8
11
.51
4.5
11
.61
2.5
13
.01
3.5
14
.8
Ex
po
rte
r4
.94
.22
.41
.21
.42
.32
.11
.42
.92
.42
.42
.05
.82
.32
.01
.7
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
7.6
11
.25
.47
.31
5.1
15
.17
.61
3.8
13
.59
.71
2.1
11
.81
3.1
11
.91
1.5
13
.9
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
68
.17
1.6
80
.27
6.8
71
.77
2.1
81
.27
1.8
71
.87
6.5
71
.07
4.6
68
.67
2.8
73
.16
9.6
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y E
mp
loy
me
nt
Siz
e
Sm
all
(<
50
)7
5.1
74
.08
2.0
75
.37
3.4
79
.07
6.2
76
.47
3.8
75
.37
8.8
74
.37
4.4
73
.77
4.1
72
.5
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
17
.01
7.5
12
.61
7.4
18
.91
3.2
13
.51
5.2
16
.71
6.5
12
.61
7.1
17
.21
8.4
19
.01
9.1
La
rge
(2
00
an
d U
p)
7.9
8.5
5.4
7.0
7.7
7.5
10
.38
.39
.58
.28
.58
.78
.47
.96
.98
.4
No
Re
sp
on
se
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y S
ecto
r
All
Se
cto
rs3
29
33
13
34
32
83
50
34
83
41
34
83
47
34
03
40
34
63
44
34
53
49
34
5
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r1
09
91
97
90
10
09
69
39
61
03
10
09
69
49
39
41
01
93
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r2
14
33
34
24
34
04
74
33
63
74
44
24
84
44
74
1
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
71
91
99
87
94
94
89
93
88
81
89
93
89
88
87
88
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
12
81
06
10
51
09
11
31
18
11
21
16
12
01
22
11
11
17
11
41
19
11
41
23
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
11
21
17
19
20
30
25
25
25
25
24
26
26
27
28
25
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
36
36
32
34
32
34
31
35
35
33
31
31
31
32
30
34
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
16
27
28
31
30
28
29
31
28
33
27
32
29
30
26
31
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s2
42
22
82
53
12
62
72
53
23
12
92
82
83
03
03
3
14
. B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r C
on
trib
uti
on
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r0
.3-5
.1-2
.73
.06
.61
.13
.85
.54
.61
.80
.95
.8-1
.24
.12
.32
.9
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r1
.82
.11
.21
.80
.00
.92
.10
.91
.21
.23
.2-2
.0-1
.5-2
.00
.9-1
.7
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
1.8
2.4
3.9
4.3
7.1
2.0
7.0
1.4
4.9
3.5
1.2
2.0
-1.5
4.9
4.0
7.8
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 2
.85
.73
.66
.45
.42
.39
.41
1.8
15
.01
1.5
5.3
6.9
3.2
7.5
13
.26
.4
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r4
.90
.9-0
.91
.83
.12
.92
.96
.37
.21
.51
.80
.91
.2-0
.91
.7-1
.2
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r3
.03
.31
.83
.02
.32
.03
.5-0
.60
.91
.51
.5-2
.9-2
.30
.60
.0-0
.6
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
7.0
2.1
3.9
3.7
4.9
2.3
7.0
3.7
6.3
1.8
-0.3
2.0
-0.3
-0.9
3.7
2.0
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 5
.79
.15
.76
.48
.02
.01
0.9
9.8
11
.01
0.3
5.0
10
.14
.76
.11
1.5
4.9
20
15
20
14
TA
BLE
5B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
No
rth
We
st
Zo
ne
20
12
15
. B
usin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
20
13
8.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
str
ain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
25
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 South East Zone
Business Outlook
Respondents in the South East zone were optimistic
on business activities in the quarter under review. At 8.5
points, the overall confidence index rose by 2.0 index
points, compared with the level achieved in the
corresponding quarter of 2014. Similarly, respondents
were optimistic about business activities in the next
quarter as the index would be expected to rise to 50.0
points (Fig. 12).
The optimism in the overall business outlook in the zone
could be adduced to the contributions of industrial (5.7
wholesale/retail trade (3.7 points) and services (0.4
points) sectors (Table 6 Sections 2 & 14).
Respondents’ optimism in the volume of total order
buoyed the volume of business activity in the current
quarter. Although, firms expressed pessimism on access
to credit, their financial condition was expected to
improve in the review quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity position)
of the firms which stood at 13.4 points in the current
quarter was driven by industrial (7.7 points), services
(4.1 points) and wholesale & retail trade (2.8 points)
(Table 6 Sections 5 & 15).
Respondents in the zone cited insufficient power
supply, financial problems, competition, high interest
rate, unfavourable economic climate, access to credit
and unfavourable political climate as limiting factors
to the growth of business activities (Table 6 Section
8).
Respondent firms expected naira to depreciate in the
current and appreciate in the next quarter. Similarly,
inflation and borrowing rates were both expected to
rise in the current quarter, but to fall in the next
quarter (Table 6 Section 9 & 10).
The respondent firms by type of business showed that
“neither importer nor exporter” category constituted
the majority with 74.4 per cent, followed by
“importer” 22.0 per cent, “both importer and
exporter” 2.8 per cent, and “exporter” 0.8 per cent
(Table 6 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.12a: South East Indices: Current Quarter
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.12b: South East Indices: Next Quarter
26
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Ov
era
ll B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
So
uth
Ea
st
-0.4
23
.82
1.8
0.8
36
.13
.61
4.8
17
.71
0.8
36
.71
0.1
6.5
8.8
-1.2
-18
.58
.5
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
So
uth
Ea
st
54
.14
8.7
54
.05
8.4
53
.52
8.5
48
.55
4.0
44
.05
5.7
44
.83
9.5
48
.85
6.0
33
.35
0.0
2.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r3
.21
3.6
12
.9-1
4.7
41
.91
4.5
-1.8
17
.52
.73
5.6
10
.11
8.6
10
.8-3
.0-7
.41
9.7
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r6
.30
.04
.50
.03
4.0
2.9
25
.03
2.4
30
.83
7.8
5.3
-25
.6-1
2.8
-11
.9-2
9.7
-7.3
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-11
.13
6.5
30
.81
0.9
18
.50
.01
4.0
16
.1-1
.62
1.7
-4.8
5.9
7.3
-4.4
-35
.91
3.6
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
10
.53
0.0
33
.36
.74
8.0
-1.0
20
.91
3.3
19
.75
3.6
24
.11
3.4
17
.69
.5-8
.81
.5
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
0.0
64
.37
5.0
38
.57
0.6
42
.97
6.9
22
.27
.74
4.4
40
.01
8.2
63
.60
.0-5
.0-7
.7
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
-4.7
22
.22
8.6
15
.82
6.3
0.0
7.7
10
.52
8.6
25
.04
.0-7
.7-4
.54
.25
.00
.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
-66
.73
1.3
5.9
-28
.66
3.6
-5.7
38
.72
3.8
17
.66
4.7
27
.83
6.4
16
.01
3.3
-5.0
-11
.8
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s9
.12
0.8
26
.71
3.6
29
.4-2
2.7
-23
.88
.22
0.0
61
.33
4.6
13
.01
8.2
20
.0-3
0.0
22
.2
3.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r5
6.5
49
.25
4.3
41
.25
8.1
32
.34
5.5
50
.93
3.3
61
.04
0.6
33
.94
4.6
47
.03
0.9
52
.1
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r5
6.3
18
.83
8.6
60
.55
7.4
35
.35
5.0
89
.26
4.1
51
.45
7.9
20
.52
0.5
47
.62
7.0
26
.8
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
62
.25
5.6
58
.56
5.6
40
.03
0.4
45
.64
1.1
36
.15
0.7
37
.13
5.3
60
.05
4.4
25
.04
3.9
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
57
.95
4.4
59
.46
6.7
58
.72
2.7
49
.55
2.7
51
.56
2.3
48
.16
0.5
57
.17
0.3
45
.06
7.6
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
83
.38
5.7
81
.39
2.3
76
.54
2.9
84
.65
5.6
61
.51
00
.09
0.0
63
.69
0.9
86
.75
5.0
69
.2
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
51
.23
3.3
66
.75
2.6
15
.82
3.1
30
.81
00
.06
6.7
50
.04
8.0
70
.05
9.1
66
.74
0.0
70
.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
-33
.37
5.0
35
.36
1.9
68
.28
.65
8.1
38
.13
5.3
64
.73
8.9
54
.54
0.0
60
.04
0.0
64
.7
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s2
7.3
54
.25
3.3
68
.27
6.5
31
.83
8.1
44
.94
0.0
54
.83
8.5
56
.55
7.6
70
.04
5.0
66
.7
4.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r4
.8-5
.10
.0-1
3.2
1.6
-21
.01
.8-3
.58
.01
6.9
0.0
16
.91
0.8
-15
.2-7
.42
6.8
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r1
2.5
-18
.8-4
.5-1
1.6
4.3
8.8
20
.01
0.8
12
.80
.07
.9-2
3.1
-15
.4-1
1.9
-21
.6-7
.3
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-4.4
23
.81
2.3
-1.6
3.1
5.4
0.0
5.4
4.9
1.5
0.0
-10
.31
2.7
1.5
-12
.51
0.6
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 8
.82
2.2
29
.05
.31
4.7
-6.2
3.3
12
.22
2.7
21
.72
0.3
-9.8
39
.6-2
.76
.31
4.7
5.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
2.1
29
.52
3.8
8.0
25
.72
.81
8.1
21
.42
2.0
33
.26
.97
.71
6.8
3.2
-3.6
19
.5
Vo
lum
e o
f T
ota
l O
rde
r B
oo
k I
nd
ex
8.9
29
.12
0.9
8.4
14
.4-0
.81
8.9
14
.91
6.2
31
.51
2.9
-3.6
18
.85
.2-3
.62
5.2
Cre
dit
Acce
ss I
nd
ex
-6.5
-11
.91
.6-1
3.4
-6.0
-10
.87
.0-0
.8-2
.51
7.9
2.8
-13
.30
.4-1
4.0
-21
.3-7
.7
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
dit
ion
In
de
x0
.41
0.6
10
.4-4
.46
.4-5
.25
.06
.91
2.0
11
.17
.7-5
.61
7.6
-6.4
-6.4
13
.4
Av
era
ge
Ca
pa
cit
y U
tili
za
tio
n
7.7
22
.22
1.4
5.2
16
.88
.81
3.2
15
.71
2.4
31
.51
7.3
1.6
15
.60
.01
.27
.7
6.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
64
.75
6.6
62
.57
2.0
54
.33
8.5
59
.76
1.7
59
.86
1.7
67
.75
3.2
70
.46
3.2
59
.86
9.9
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
19
.52
5.0
27
.02
8.8
23
.21
3.2
36
.23
3.5
31
.11
5.7
29
.03
1.5
34
.02
7.2
19
.73
2.1
7.
Bu
sin
ess w
ith
Ex
pa
nsio
n P
lan
s (
in p
er
ce
nt)
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r-6
.5-3
9.0
5.7
-52
.9-9
.76
1.3
36
.47
0.2
48
.02
5.4
37
.73
2.2
40
.04
8.5
20
.65
2.1
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r2
5.0
-25
.04
.5-1
1.6
-10
.64
4.1
37
.56
9.4
66
.72
4.3
50
.03
9.5
28
.24
0.5
29
.73
6.6
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-2.2
-36
.5-2
9.2
-3.1
1.5
62
.52
9.8
76
.87
2.1
28
.45
4.8
45
.64
1.8
67
.63
4.4
51
.5
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
-5.3
-22
.28
.81
7.3
12
.05
0.5
34
.16
8.4
50
.01
7.4
60
.85
4.9
47
.36
2.2
43
.85
0.0
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
33
.32
8.6
33
.3-7
.74
1.2
50
.02
3.1
44
.46
1.5
22
.24
0.0
18
.24
5.5
53
.35
0.0
38
.5
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
7.0
-38
.91
4.3
36
.8-5
.35
3.8
38
.56
8.4
33
.32
5.0
60
.05
7.7
36
.46
6.7
40
.05
0.0
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
33
.3-1
2.5
5.9
23
.8-9
.14
2.9
35
.56
6.7
58
.85
.97
7.8
54
.55
6.0
53
.34
5.0
47
.1
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s-2
7.3
-33
.3-2
0.0
9.1
29
.45
9.1
33
.37
3.5
53
.31
9.4
57
.76
9.6
48
.57
0.0
40
.06
1.1
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
15
TA
BLE
6
BU
SIN
ES
S E
XP
EC
TA
TIO
NS
SU
RV
EY
So
uth
Ea
st
Zo
ne
27
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
str
ain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te5
4.1
56
.45
1.8
61
.26
2.1
59
.95
2.1
58
.56
0.8
-8.7
68
.86
5.5
58
.26
5.0
48
.44
6.3
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
42
.72
3.9
54
6.2
49
.83
0.4
46
.83
0.7
49
.41
7.4
-23
.93
4.9
11
.32
3.8
18
.41
8.5
26
.4
La
ck
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
6.9
-6.7
52
5.8
25
.61
.71
.16
.49
.13
.9-2
9.2
5.4
-7.1
-0.2
0.8
0.6
3.9
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d1
2.2
5.7
52
5.7
24
.6-0
.42
.32
.01
2.7
0.4
-16
.91
3.1
1.8
13
.61
0.4
17
.96
.7
Acce
ss t
o C
red
it3
8.0
40
.02
8.7
42
.84
0.0
45
.05
2.6
53
.44
1.1
14
.45
2.6
48
.64
3.0
57
.04
6.8
37
.0
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s5
1.2
48
.65
1.4
58
.84
8.4
45
.85
8.6
56
.75
7.3
37
.76
3.3
57
.75
5.4
60
.84
0.8
48
.2
Co
mp
eti
tio
n4
4.5
31
.53
7.6
43
.08
.62
1.9
33
.42
4.2
25
.92
2.0
31
.03
2.1
39
.63
9.8
36
.74
6.5
La
bo
r P
rob
lem
s-7
.45
-25
.55
.65
0.0
-24
.3-2
0.2
-11
.1-3
.0-1
2.4
-31
.8-1
0.3
-17
.7-7
.0-8
.4-1
1.0
-12
.4
La
ck
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t-0
.25
-15
.81
2.0
24
.4-5
.1-1
0.4
9.2
7.5
3.1
-33
.5-0
.8-1
3.9
-5.6
-5.6
-2.0
0.4
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
21
.81
6.2
28
.54
4.4
6.7
5.1
27
.32
9.2
16
.0-5
.73
1.9
10
.32
3.6
10
.82
6.9
29
.5
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
co
no
mic
Cli
ma
te3
8.4
26
.64
4.7
56
.03
8.4
41
.24
8.3
54
.63
0.1
-9.3
40
.71
8.3
29
.03
2.0
34
.94
0.4
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly7
9.9
78
.86
5.2
80
.07
2.9
63
.17
2.5
70
.06
7.4
63
.18
1.3
77
.27
9.8
82
.47
4.5
59
.6
9.
Bu
sin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te1
3.4
-4.1
9.3
-2.4
-3.6
-8.4
-11
.5-1
1.7
-14
.53
6.2
0.0
-0.8
-10
.0-5
.2-2
6.5
-3.3
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te5
0.4
27
.59
.74
6.4
9.7
38
.93
3.8
34
.73
5.7
33
.21
7.3
6.0
16
.01
6.4
21
.32
.8
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
13
.02
2.6
-1.6
22
.4-9
.7-4
.84
.9-2
.0-1
3.3
30
.6-4
.08
.58
.8-1
4.8
16
.11
0.2
10
. B
usin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te1
4.2
-5.3
16
.91
9.6
-7.2
-7.6
-7.0
2.8
-12
.04
4.7
9.7
4.8
5.2
-1.6
-22
.51
3.8
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te1
4.2
7.4
7.6
16
.8-4
.82
6.5
30
.52
7.4
22
.02
4.3
14
.98
.18
.8-2
.4-9
.2-6
.1
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
5.7
8.6
6.9
-1.6
-13
.7-1
0.8
-2.1
-0.8
-13
.33
0.2
-5.6
-0.4
6.8
-31
.2-1
6.9
-17
.1
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y T
yp
e o
f B
usin
ess
Imp
ort
er
19
.92
1.3
18
.11
2.0
22
.91
1.2
16
.01
5.3
12
.91
6.5
24
.71
9.8
23
.33
0.8
27
.32
2.0
Ex
po
rte
r0
.40
.81
.20
.81
.23
.23
.74
.04
.11
.70
.80
.40
.80
.40
.40
.8
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
7.3
7.4
15
.73
.25
.28
.87
.84
.86
.63
.85
.76
.54
.42
.84
.82
.8
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
72
.47
0.5
64
.98
4.0
70
.77
6.7
72
.47
5.8
76
.37
8.0
68
.87
3.4
71
.56
6.0
67
.57
4.4
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y E
mp
loy
me
nt
Siz
e
Sm
all
(<
50
)6
9.1
82
.88
2.3
81
.68
5.9
77
.57
1.0
79
.47
8.4
87
.88
7.0
80
.68
5.1
77
.28
1.9
84
.1
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
24
.41
2.3
10
.91
0.8
9.6
16
.52
1.2
14
.11
6.6
10
.19
.71
6.6
11
.21
8.8
14
.51
3.4
La
rge
(2
00
an
d U
p)
6.5
4.9
6.9
7.6
4.4
6.0
7.9
6.5
5.0
2.1
3.2
2.8
3.6
4.0
3.6
2.4
No
Re
sp
on
se
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y S
ecto
r
All
Se
cto
rs2
46
24
42
48
25
02
49
24
92
43
24
82
41
23
72
48
24
82
50
25
02
49
24
6
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r6
25
97
06
86
26
25
55
77
55
96
95
96
56
66
87
1
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r1
63
24
44
34
73
44
03
73
93
73
83
93
94
23
74
1
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
45
63
65
64
65
56
57
56
61
69
62
68
55
68
64
66
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
12
39
06
97
57
59
79
19
86
67
27
98
29
17
48
06
8
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
61
41
61
31
71
41
39
13
91
01
11
11
52
01
3
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
43
36
21
19
19
26
26
19
21
12
25
26
22
24
20
20
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
61
61
72
12
23
53
12
11
71
71
82
22
51
52
01
7
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s1
12
41
52
21
72
22
14
91
53
42
62
33
32
02
01
8
14
. B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r C
on
trib
uti
on
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r0
.83
.33
.6-4
.01
0.4
3.6
-0.4
4.0
0.8
8.9
2.8
4.4
2.8
-0.8
-2.0
5.7
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r0
.40
.00
.80
.06
.40
.44
.14
.85
.05
.90
.8-4
.0-2
.0-2
.0-4
.4-1
.2
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-2.0
9.4
8.1
2.8
4.8
0.0
3.3
3.6
-0.4
6.3
-1.2
1.6
1.6
-1.2
-9.2
3.7
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 5
.31
1.1
9.3
2.0
14
.5-0
.47
.85
.25
.41
6.3
7.7
4.4
6.4
2.8
-2.8
0.4
15
. B
usin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r1
.2-1
.20
.0-3
.60
.4-5
.20
.4-0
.82
.54
.20
.04
.02
.8-4
.0-2
.07
.7
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r0
.8-2
.5-0
.8-2
.00
.81
.23
.31
.62
.10
.01
.2-3
.6-2
.4-2
.0-3
.2-1
.2
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
-0.8
6.1
3.2
-0.4
0.8
1.2
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.4
0.0
-2.8
2.8
0.4
-3.2
2.8
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r4
.48
.28
.11
.64
.4-2
.41
.24
.86
.26
.66
.5-3
.21
4.4
-0.8
2.0
4.1
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
15
TA
BLE
6
BU
SIN
ES
S E
XP
EC
TA
TIO
NS
SU
RV
EY
So
uth
Ea
st Z
on
e
28
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 South South Zone
Business Outlook
Respondents in the South South zone were
pessimistic on business activities in the quarter under
review. At –1.7 points, the overall confidence index
decline by 26.9 index points, below the level
achieved in the corresponding quarter of 2014.
Respondents were optimistic about business activities
in the next quarter as the index would be expected to
rise to 39.7 points (Fig. 13).
The pessimism in the overall business outlook could
be adduced to the contributions of wholesale and
retail trade (-2.4 points), construction (-1.0 points)
and industrial (-0.3 points) sectors (Table 7 Sections
2 & 14).
The volume of total order book buoyed the volume of
business activity in the current quarter. However, the
pessimism of firms on access to credit dampened
their financial condition in the review quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity position)
of the firms which stood at –2.7 points in the current
quarter was driven by industrial (-2.4 points)
wholesale/retail trade (-1.7 points) and construction
(-0.3 points) (Table 7 Sections 5 & 15).
Respondents cited insufficient power supply,
financial problems, unfavourable economic climate,
high interest rate, access to credit, and insufficient
demand as limiting factors to the growth of
business activities in the zone (Table 7 Section 8).
Respondent firms expected naira to appreciate in
both the current and next quarters. Inflation and
borrowing rates were expected to rise in both
quarters (Table 7 Sections 9 & 10).
The respondent firms by type of business showed
that “neither importer nor exporter” category
constituted the majority with 68.8 per cent,
followed by “importer” 16.9 per cent, “both
importer and exporter” 7.8 per cent and “exporter”
firms 6.4 per cent (Table 7 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.13a: South South Indices: Current Quarter
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.13b: South South Indices: Next Quarter
29
Ye
ar
Qu
arte
rQ
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4
1. O
vera
ll B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y
Co
nfi
de
nce
Ind
ex:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Sou
th S
ou
th-3
.621
.523
.621
.019
.828
.429
.522
.338
.035
.017
.825
.219
.3-1
6.3
23.6
-1.7
Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Sou
th S
ou
th58
.366
.960
.950
.060
.554
.655
.758
.365
.062
.353
.764
.855
.947
.765
.139
.7
2. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
uar
ter
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r0.
016
.720
.517
.626
.932
.440
.320
.340
.550
.719
.439
.46.
9-2
0.6
28.8
-1.5
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r-2
5.0
17.1
44.7
2.5
16.3
25.0
26.5
28.6
40.8
24.5
13.6
18.6
-4.8
-33.
311
.1-7
.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e-8
.34.
117
.336
.119
.215
.523
.626
.028
.822
.417
.117
.317
.35.
210
.5-8
.5
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
-1.2
38.8
20.2
20.0
17.1
36.1
27.6
18.3
41.3
38.2
19.0
23.8
41.1
-20.
434
.85.
6
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
-44.
452
.425
.058
.846
.755
.641
.739
.134
.823
.820
.850
.040
.0-1
9.0
50.0
12.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
13.0
22.6
3.8
-5.9
3.4
40.7
33.3
13.3
50.0
22.6
-12.
93.
348
.4-3
0.8
20.7
-6.3
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
0.0
51.9
12.5
48.3
3.4
11.5
19.2
3.8
30.8
57.7
36.0
30.8
65.0
-31.
637
.934
.6
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
100
33.3
47.4
0.0
26.3
35.7
16.0
20.0
48.0
50.0
40.0
17.4
12.5
10.5
30.8
-16.
0
3. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n t
he
Mac
roe
con
om
y b
y Se
cto
r: N
ext
Qu
arte
r
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r67
.472
.753
.438
.274
.654
.463
.950
.067
.667
.162
.970
.448
.635
.379
.750
.8
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r50
.073
.270
.235
.046
.550
.051
.067
.361
.271
.447
.783
.750
.045
.657
.857
.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e47
.959
.554
.763
.969
.245
.145
.853
.453
.448
.744
.350
.749
.455
.844
.737
.8
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
57.6
66.0
67.4
53.6
51.4
63.0
59.0
70.2
73.1
64.7
57.1
68.8
69.5
51.0
74.1
27.8
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
55.6
76.2
75.0
64.7
66.7
70.4
62.5
56.5
69.6
81.0
62.5
54.5
70.0
47.6
82.1
36.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
82.6
58.1
53.8
52.9
44.8
59.3
56.7
100.
063
.338
.738
.772
.761
.343
.672
.421
.9
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
64.3
77.8
62.5
75.9
51.7
50.0
69.2
69.2
92.3
65.4
72.0
80.8
85.0
31.6
69.0
30.8
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
100
54.2
84.2
26.7
50.0
71.4
48.0
60.0
68.0
83.3
60.0
65.2
66.7
89.5
73.1
24.0
4. B
usi
ne
ss C
on
fid
en
ce In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
by
Sect
or:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r-2
.26.
117
.811
.816
.423
.523
.625
.731
.141
.133
.911
.323
.6-4
.41.
7-1
0.8
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r12
.5-2
.417
.0-1
0.0
14.0
2.1
12.2
-10.
218
.40.
02.
30.
0-7
.1-3
.5-2
0.0
-2.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e14
.610
.816
.019
.423
.125
.416
.715
.123
.314
.530
.01.
317
.36.
515
.8-6
.1
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r 2.
417
.525
.87.
319
.825
.015
.221
.223
.127
.516
.229
.714
.721
.44.
54.
6
5. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: Cu
rre
nt
Qu
arte
r
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
Ind
ex
9.5
25.7
25.7
23.4
29.1
31.8
32.2
22.3
34.7
33.3
23.1
22.4
21.4
8.3
19.5
8.1
Vo
lum
e o
f To
tal O
rde
r B
oo
k In
de
x-2
.225
.027
.917
.624
.429
.530
.626
.341
.332
.328
.820
.323
.14.
023
.68.
1
Cre
dit
Acc
ess
Ind
ex
-10.
91.
12.
1-2
.14.
75.
02.
4-1
.77.
00.
3-7
.13.
12.
1-7
.73.
4-2
.4
Fin
anci
al C
on
dit
ion
Ind
ex
5.7
10.2
19.7
8.9
19.1
21.1
17.2
15.7
24.3
23.0
21.4
13.4
14.5
7.0
3.1
-2.7
Ave
rage
Cap
acit
y U
tili
zati
on
8.
118
.022
.922
.420
.425
.421
.522
.742
.330
.027
.022
.125
.516
.024
.73.
1
6. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
ity
Ind
ex
71.8
79.2
76.4
68.0
65.5
67.8
59.7
55.7
68.3
60.7
57.7
60.0
71.0
72.3
70.5
70.2
Emp
loym
en
t O
utl
oo
k In
de
x51
.954
.644
.140
.336
.837
.235
.923
.745
.036
.026
.731
.441
.433
.346
.942
.4
7. B
usi
ne
ss w
ith
Exp
ansi
on
Pla
ns
(in
pe
r ce
nt)
: Ne
xt Q
uar
ter
Ind
ust
rial
Se
cto
r43
.515
.220
.517
.619
.464
.762
.567
.667
.667
.169
.470
.475
.066
.278
.075
.4
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r0.
017
.144
.7-1
5.0
16.3
52.1
49.0
42.9
65.3
53.1
50.0
48.8
69.0
59.6
64.4
57.5
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e27
.124
.322
.733
.313
.267
.673
.657
.565
.861
.864
.345
.370
.468
.865
.854
.9
Serv
ice
s Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
22.4
18.4
37.1
12.7
-11.
764
.852
.458
.764
.456
.952
.453
.569
.565
.358
.057
.4
Fin
anci
al In
term
ed
iati
on
33.3
33.3
20.0
52.9
-6.7
59.3
50.0
65.2
69.6
57.1
58.3
68.2
60.0
66.7
64.3
52.0
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
aura
nts
21.7
-9.7
0.0
5.9
-31.
066
.756
.760
.050
.041
.954
.843
.367
.759
.062
.153
.1
Re
nti
ng
and
Bu
sin
ess
Act
ivit
ies
85.7
48.1
75.0
17.2
-24.
169
.250
.057
.765
.476
.948
.069
.285
.057
.962
.169
.2
Co
mm
un
ity
and
So
cial
Se
rvic
es
08.
357
.9-6
.710
.564
.352
.052
.076
.054
.248
.034
.866
.784
.242
.356
.0
2015
2013
2014
2012
TA
BLE
7B
USI
NES
S EX
PE
CTA
TIO
NS
SUR
VEY
So
uth
So
uth
Zo
ne
30
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.
Bu
sin
ess
Co
nst
rain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te5
0.2
51
.25
1.2
53
.54
6.4
51
.63
6.5
39
.24
1.8
47
.85
2.0
43
.64
9.1
39
.24
3.3
40
.8
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
44
.23
4.2
40
.54
2.0
35
.53
7.6
34
.03
3.8
27
.83
8.2
43
.83
3.3
30
.71
9.5
24
.72
7.6
Lack
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
31
.32
0.1
28
.42
9.4
23
.42
2.1
23
.22
4.2
28
.52
9.7
31
.32
0.9
12
.1-7
.71
5.6
16
.4
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d3
7.5
22
.33
1.7
36
.12
2.5
27
.33
1.9
22
.22
0.3
20
.53
2.0
20
.52
2.9
17
.52
2.9
34
.6
Acc
ess
to
Cre
dit
44
.03
9.0
44
.95
0.3
38
.03
5.8
34
.53
2.0
30
.54
5.0
39
.73
0.9
35
.51
9.5
33
.63
5.4
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s5
6.2
52
.15
4.9
58
.24
8.0
45
.93
7.4
41
.84
9.0
51
.34
6.8
38
.44
0.5
44
.24
9.3
49
.0
Co
mp
eti
tio
n4
5.8
35
.94
1.2
37
.14
4.0
43
.44
2.0
40
.34
2.2
51
.85
7.1
38
.43
7.8
47
.73
8.0
32
.7
Lab
or
Pro
ble
ms
26
.91
1.3
13
.11
0.9
15
.17
.41
1.0
13
.51
5.3
25
.82
4.4
12
.62
.1-8
.2-2
.18
.6
Lack
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t3
1.6
10
.61
5.4
18
.11
6.3
12
.91
9.2
17
.82
1.8
19
.52
4.0
17
.14
.1-7
.56
.04
.2
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
42
.82
2.9
41
.93
5.0
29
.33
5.2
35
.13
3.8
36
.34
1.5
44
.73
5.9
33
.62
4.8
25
.92
6.8
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
con
om
ic C
lim
ate
48
.53
9.7
52
.14
5.4
32
.84
6.3
42
.24
4.7
45
.55
0.0
56
.24
2.9
43
.43
2.2
46
.14
8.5
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly6
8.5
75
.17
1.5
65
.97
4.6
69
.35
7.5
57
.35
9.3
73
.06
8.9
59
.77
2.9
75
.86
7.5
66
.1
9.
Bu
sin
ess
Ex
pe
cta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lect
ed
Eco
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
cha
ng
e R
ate
-16
.20
.4-9
.8-1
0.3
-4.4
7.8
6.0
7.7
5.3
-6.7
7.1
2.8
-1.4
-34
.37
.51
6.3
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te3
4.6
32
.11
6.9
27
.92
6.8
22
.43
1.2
12
.36
.01
9.3
10
.71
6.6
37
.22
7.7
25
.33
3.2
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
10
.37
.71
4.8
20
.31
5.3
7.1
9.1
6.3
24
.01
6.7
12
.14
.11
2.8
26
.76
.82
.4
10
. B
usi
ne
ss E
xp
ect
ati
on
In
de
x o
n S
ele
cte
d E
con
om
ic I
nd
ica
tors
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
N/$
Ex
cha
ng
e R
ate
13
.81
3.4
-2.8
10
.05
.14
.85
.4-4
.74
.7-3
.38
.9-3
.4-7
.2-7
.31
1.0
9.5
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te9
.28
.55
.63
1.4
14
.12
0.4
24
.53
.0-4
.74
.31
1.7
3.8
21
.01
1.0
7.2
27
.5
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
2.5
7.8
12
.41
1.4
11
.45
.73
.71
.3-2
.01
.70
.7-2
.11
5.9
28
.0-3
.81
0.8
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms
by
Ty
pe
of
Bu
sin
ess
Imp
ort
er
16
.61
9.0
27
.11
1.7
14
.41
2.9
16
.82
0.7
12
.31
3.3
16
.01
9.0
22
.49
.01
3.4
16
.9
Ex
po
rte
r1
.82
.12
.53
.80
.32
.42
.31
.32
.33
.01
.42
.84
.12
.75
.16
.4
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
6.7
10
.98
.56
.27
.47
.59
.11
0.7
12
.37
.31
3.5
9.7
7.2
13
.07
.97
.8
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
57
.26
8.0
62
.07
8.3
77
.97
7.3
71
.86
7.3
73
.07
6.3
69
.06
8.6
66
.27
5.3
73
.66
8.8
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms
by
Em
plo
ym
en
t S
ize
Sm
all
(<
50
)8
2.0
83
.57
6.8
85
.28
2.3
85
.47
8.9
78
.38
2.3
82
.38
2.9
77
.97
4.5
77
.38
2.2
85
.1
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
8.8
11
.31
5.1
9.3
12
.49
.81
3.4
10
.31
2.3
10
.71
0.3
12
.11
6.6
19
.31
2.0
10
.2
Larg
e (
20
0 a
nd
Up
)9
.25
.38
.15
.55
.44
.77
.71
1.3
5.3
7.0
6.8
10
.09
.03
.35
.84
.7
No
Re
spo
nse
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms
by
Se
cto
r
All
Se
cto
rs2
83
28
42
84
29
02
99
29
52
98
30
03
00
30
02
81
29
02
90
30
02
92
29
5
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
46
66
73
68
67
68
72
74
74
73
62
71
72
68
59
65
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r8
41
47
40
43
48
49
49
49
49
44
43
42
57
45
40
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e9
67
47
57
27
87
17
27
37
37
67
07
58
17
77
68
2
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r o
f w
hic
h:
13
31
03
89
11
01
11
10
81
05
10
41
04
10
21
05
10
19
59
81
12
10
8
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
92
12
01
71
52
72
42
32
32
12
42
22
02
12
82
5
Ho
tels
an
d R
est
au
ran
ts2
33
12
63
42
92
73
03
03
03
13
13
03
13
92
93
2
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usi
ne
ss A
ctiv
itie
s1
42
72
42
92
92
62
62
62
62
62
52
62
01
92
92
6
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
oci
al
Se
rvic
es
22
41
93
03
82
82
52
52
52
42
52
32
41
92
62
5
14
. B
usi
ne
ss O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acr
oe
con
om
y b
y S
ect
or
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
0.0
3.9
5.3
4.1
6.0
7.5
9.7
5.0
10
.01
2.3
4.3
9.7
1.7
-4.7
5.8
-0.3
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r-0
.72
.57
.40
.32
.34
.14
.44
.76
.74
.02
.12
.8-0
.7-6
.31
.7-1
.0
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e-2
.81
.14
.69
.05
.03
.75
.76
.37
.05
.74
.34
.54
.81
.32
.7-2
.4
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r -0
.61
4.1
6.3
7.6
6.4
13
.29
.76
.31
4.3
13
.07
.18
.31
3.4
-6.7
13
.42
.0
15
. B
usi
ne
ss C
on
fid
en
ce I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s b
y S
ect
or:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Ind
ust
ria
l S
ect
or
-0.4
1.4
4.6
2.8
3.7
5.4
5.7
6.3
7.7
10
.07
.52
.85
.9-1
.00
.3-2
.4
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Se
cto
r0
.4-0
.42
.8-1
.42
.00
.32
.0-1
.73
.00
.00
.40
.0-1
.0-0
.7-3
.1-0
.3
Wh
ole
sale
an
d R
eta
il T
rad
e4
.92
.84
.24
.86
.06
.14
.03
.75
.73
.77
.50
.34
.81
.74
.1-1
.7
Se
rvic
es
Se
cto
r 1
.16
.38
.12
.87
.49
.25
.47
.38
.09
.36
.01
0.3
4.8
7.0
1.7
1.7
20
15
20
13
20
14
20
12
TA
BLE
7B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
So
uth
So
uth
Zo
ne
31
Business Expectations Survey Q4 2015 South West Zone
Business Outlook
Respondents in the South West zone were more
optimistic on business activities in the quarter under
review. At 13.1 points, the overall confidence index rose
by 4.8 index points, compared with the level achieved in
the corresponding quarter of 2014. Respondents were
more optimistic about business activities in the next
quarter as the index was expected to rise to 61.1 points
(Fig. 14).
The optimism in the overall business outlook in the zone
could be attributed to the wholesale/retail trade (5.6
points), services (5.3 points) and industrial (2.5 points)
(Table 8 Sections 2 & 14).
The volume of total order book and financial condition
of the firms in the zone, buoyed the volume of business
activity in the current quarter. Similarly, the optimism
on access to credit by the firms upped their financial
condition in the review quarter.
The financial condition (or internal liquidity position) of
the firms which stood at 15.2 points in the current
quarter was driven by services sector (6.9 points),
wholesale/retail trade (4.5 points) and industrial (3.8
points) sectors (Table 8 Sections 5 & 15).
Respondents cited high interest rate, insufficient
power supply, financial problems, competition,
insufficient demand and unclear economic laws as
limiting factors to the growth of business activities in
the zone (Table 8 Section 8).
Respondent firms expected naira to appreciate in the
current and next quarters. While inflation rate is
expected to rise in the current and fall in the next
quarter, borrowing rate were expected to rise in the
both quarters (Table 8 Sections 9 & 10).
The respondent firms by type of business showed
that “neither importer nor exporter” category
constituted the majority with 63.4 per cent, followed
by “importer” 20.7 per cent, “both importer and
exporter” 11.6 per cent and “exporter” firms 4.3 per
cent (Table 8 Section 11).
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
-70.0
-50.0
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.14a: South West Indices: Current Quarter
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
15
Ind
ex
po
ints
Ind
ex
Po
ints
Overall Business Outlook
N/$ Exchange Rate
Inflation Rate
Borrowing Rate
Zero Line
Fig.14b: South West Indices: Next Quarter
32
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.
Ov
era
ll B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k o
n t
he
Ma
cro
eco
no
my
Co
nfi
de
nce
In
de
x:
All
Se
cto
rs
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
So
uth
We
st
18
.61
3.4
10
.11
2.5
17
.91
4.3
14
.59
.62
0.9
17
.01
7.0
8.3
-5.6
8.5
6.8
13
.1
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
So
uth
We
st
65
.05
3.8
52
.94
8.3
49
.54
3.1
56
.75
0.3
57
.05
8.0
56
.64
3.2
27
.35
4.8
59
.06
1.1
2.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r1
7.8
12
.17
.69
.41
8.3
17
.81
4.5
10
.42
1.0
10
.71
3.2
14
.74
.9-1
.71
1.3
9.0
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r6
.33
1.9
0.0
8.3
17
.63
1.0
22
.01
1.4
40
.91
9.0
20
.50
.0-2
0.5
30
.6-2
0.7
-2.9
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
14
.41
3.3
9.3
7.1
8.7
5.9
6.0
0.9
24
.52
5.0
15
.31
0.7
-8.8
11
.75
.81
6.3
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
24
.08
.31
6.0
25
.02
2.9
12
.41
8.4
15
.51
1.3
16
.22
1.1
3.1
-8.3
9.1
9.6
18
.1
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
-25
.04
2.9
40
.04
6.4
25
.94
7.6
53
.55
7.6
51
.33
0.4
26
.72
6.3
6.3
54
.55
2.6
-5.6
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
35
.5-1
2.5
10
.56
1.1
23
.6-4
.26
.35
.1-2
.4-6
.83
1.0
-20
.6-1
8.4
-9.4
-6.9
14
.3
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
17
.64
.82
0.0
3.2
34
.0-1
4.8
12
.53
.80
.03
4.6
16
.7-8
.0-3
9.1
0.0
-13
.62
3.8
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s4
2.9
11
.39
.36
.55
.43
1.7
-11
.5-6
.5-1
4.8
20
.91
2.2
15
.11
1.4
5.6
12
.32
6.5
3.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r5
7.5
56
.14
6.7
47
.04
7.1
46
.65
6.4
47
.85
7.1
50
.84
9.1
48
.33
6.1
55
.56
2.6
56
.8
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r5
6.3
76
.64
1.9
50
.06
1.8
47
.64
6.3
56
.85
4.5
57
.16
9.2
58
.8-1
0.3
63
.96
2.1
52
.9
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
60
.84
1.1
57
.74
1.4
45
.73
7.3
55
.05
0.0
64
.76
8.0
58
.53
6.4
36
.35
2.3
51
.26
6.7
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
71
.95
2.8
58
.05
8.3
50
.64
3.1
61
.05
5.1
51
.95
7.4
57
.84
2.7
22
.35
3.8
62
.46
1.2
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
50
.08
5.7
80
.07
8.6
37
.07
1.4
83
.78
7.9
69
.26
9.6
60
.04
2.1
43
.86
3.6
78
.96
1.1
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
71
.03
5.0
50
.07
7.8
56
.43
5.4
50
.06
4.3
45
.24
5.5
61
.94
4.1
26
.36
2.5
57
.15
3.6
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
82
.44
2.9
65
.73
5.5
57
.42
2.2
62
.55
7.7
44
.05
0.0
46
.74
0.0
-8.7
37
.56
3.6
57
.1
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s8
5.7
56
.55
1.2
51
.64
3.2
51
.24
2.3
9.7
44
.46
7.4
61
.04
3.4
27
.35
1.9
59
.46
7.3
4.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r1
9.2
16
.81
1.4
10
.32
0.2
16
.12
4.8
20
.02
1.8
24
.61
4.0
24
.1-1
0.7
5.9
12
.21
3.5
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r6
.31
7.0
32
.61
8.8
23
.53
3.3
26
.82
7.3
27
.31
4.3
2.6
11
.8-2
5.6
5.6
0.0
0.0
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
14
.42
4.4
20
.62
4.2
21
.72
0.6
23
.22
1.3
31
.72
7.0
27
.12
2.5
6.1
19
.81
4.0
13
.3
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 3
1.3
9.7
25
.22
6.9
36
.12
6.3
34
.83
2.6
19
.52
6.5
18
.82
5.2
4.1
29
.52
2.2
23
.5
5.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
32
.12
4.5
23
.72
8.1
29
.52
6.6
30
.12
9.0
27
.93
1.0
23
.62
0.1
7.1
21
.11
4.3
19
.7
Vo
lum
e o
f T
ota
l O
rde
r B
oo
k I
nd
ex
37
.22
6.0
25
.02
7.6
27
.32
2.8
28
.12
7.0
26
.13
1.5
20
.12
4.8
3.5
19
.41
3.3
15
.2
Cre
dit
Acce
ss I
nd
ex
16
.6-0
.8-5
.3-8
.53
.01
.38
.34
.88
.06
.58
.56
.3-7
.86
.81
.35
.6
Fin
an
cia
l C
on
dit
ion
In
de
x2
2.0
16
.02
1.1
19
.52
7.5
22
.62
8.1
25
.32
4.1
24
.81
8.3
22
.9-2
.81
7.6
15
.31
5.2
Av
era
ge
Ca
pa
cit
y U
tili
za
tio
n
31
.02
2.7
16
.42
1.3
35
.93
0.4
28
.03
0.8
31
.73
4.3
25
.62
4.1
-0.8
23
.91
5.5
19
.2
6.
Bu
sin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
Ow
n O
pe
rati
on
s :
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
Vo
lum
e o
f B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
y I
nd
ex
76
.87
7.0
75
.57
3.7
73
.87
5.4
68
.47
1.7
70
.17
6.3
64
.24
9.7
27
.35
9.5
67
.47
0.7
Em
plo
ym
en
t O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
49
.84
2.3
50
.34
7.3
51
.05
3.9
44
.64
8.2
43
.75
4.5
45
.93
9.4
16
.24
3.0
45
.44
9.2
7.
Bu
sin
ess w
ith
Ex
pa
nsio
n P
lan
s (
in p
er
ce
nt)
: N
ex
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r2
6.0
19
.63
3.3
12
.11
7.3
61
.96
1.5
62
.66
8.1
73
.86
4.9
62
.14
9.2
70
.67
4.8
70
.3
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r6
2.5
27
.77
6.7
54
.27
0.6
81
.07
5.6
72
.77
7.3
71
.46
6.7
64
.73
8.5
80
.67
5.9
70
.6
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
44
.32
8.9
36
.13
9.4
50
.07
1.6
67
.77
5.9
80
.48
8.0
83
.15
8.9
63
.28
0.2
79
.38
3.7
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
31
.33
3.3
58
.85
0.0
30
.17
3.7
70
.26
9.8
70
.78
2.4
76
.66
9.5
50
.47
2.7
74
.18
0.2
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
16
.78
1.0
73
.37
8.6
55
.68
5.7
72
.19
3.9
79
.59
1.3
66
.78
4.2
62
.57
7.3
73
.77
7.8
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
22
.61
5.0
52
.66
6.7
49
.17
0.8
72
.96
4.1
61
.97
7.3
83
.36
7.6
52
.67
1.9
62
.18
2.1
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
41
.25
2.4
54
.32
2.6
6.4
70
.47
5.0
57
.77
2.0
73
.17
6.7
76
.03
9.1
75
.07
2.7
81
.0
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s7
1.4
22
.66
2.8
41
.91
3.5
73
.25
7.7
61
.37
0.4
88
.47
3.2
62
.35
0.0
70
.48
0.0
79
.6
20
12
20
13
TA
BLE
8B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
So
uth
We
st
Zo
ne
20
15
20
14
33
Ye
ar
Qu
art
er
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8.
Bu
sin
ess C
on
str
ain
ts:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
Hig
h I
nte
rest
Ra
te5
9.0
57
.85
5.5
61
.45
2.5
54
.85
0.8
52
.95
1.5
32
.94
7.9
37
.53
1.1
52
.94
1.1
49
.6
Un
cle
ar
Eco
no
mic
La
ws
29
.43
4.9
42
.44
6.7
35
.73
8.7
37
.43
2.8
33
.03
0.6
27
.82
5.4
24
.93
8.6
28
.53
0.0
La
ck
of
Eq
uip
me
nt
26
.32
5.7
23
.73
4.3
28
.73
2.9
33
.21
8.0
25
.01
5.3
19
.32
2.9
14
.42
2.1
16
.91
4.3
Insu
ffic
ien
t D
em
an
d3
8.3
42
.42
5.2
40
.03
0.1
30
.34
0.1
21
.92
9.8
19
.92
1.7
23
.81
8.7
21
.92
2.9
30
.1
Acce
ss t
o C
red
it3
4.3
34
.03
0.8
32
.53
6.1
42
.84
2.7
33
.53
4.9
23
.82
3.7
24
.71
5.5
25
.52
0.8
26
.2
Fin
an
cia
l P
rob
lem
s4
8.5
48
.24
2.6
54
.35
0.2
50
.55
3.8
42
.54
8.6
37
.13
1.5
35
.03
1.8
39
.43
4.3
43
.3
Co
mp
eti
tio
n4
1.7
42
.44
8.1
50
.34
6.0
43
.74
9.4
40
.84
5.7
38
.53
9.6
35
.94
0.3
30
.93
4.5
40
.6
La
bo
ur
Pro
ble
ms
6.4
5.9
10
.12
2.0
19
.41
2.3
19
.51
3.2
5.8
1.5
-1.5
3.9
0.4
5.7
3.0
7.1
La
ck
of
Ma
teri
als
In
pu
t2
5.7
19
.61
7.3
28
.61
6.8
23
.22
6.5
13
.71
6.0
6.0
6.6
8.6
9.0
14
.31
2.3
11
.3
Un
fav
ou
rab
le P
oli
tica
l C
lim
ate
20
.42
5.7
39
.04
1.5
32
.13
8.7
33
.23
2.0
25
.32
9.1
24
.32
6.8
16
.72
9.9
33
.82
3.2
Un
fav
ou
rab
le E
co
no
mic
Cli
ma
te2
8.4
34
.74
5.0
50
.33
6.9
50
.14
7.3
40
.64
0.5
37
.53
4.1
31
.22
4.0
40
.53
6.6
29
.9
Insu
ffic
ien
t P
ow
er
Su
pp
ly7
4.4
76
.16
7.8
65
.56
8.2
71
.96
9.4
66
.17
0.9
55
.15
7.8
45
.14
8.6
61
.75
0.4
46
.7
9.
Bu
sin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Cu
rre
nt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te-0
.3-9
.20
.20
.3-3
.03
.09
.5-4
.01
2.1
10
.81
3.5
5.3
-17
.42
1.6
10
.82
7.0
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te3
1.2
32
.52
7.6
39
.74
1.1
22
.32
1.1
26
.82
2.6
27
.52
1.3
8.8
5.8
16
.11
6.0
5.6
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
34
.32
8.3
11
.52
0.5
22
.51
2.3
20
.52
0.5
22
.11
9.8
15
.81
6.1
11
.62
1.1
21
.15
.8
10
. B
usin
ess E
xp
ecta
tio
n I
nd
ex
on
Se
lecte
d E
co
no
mic
In
dic
ato
rs:
Ne
xt
Qu
art
er
N/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Ra
te2
8.4
5.1
9.8
-4.4
4.3
10
.21
21
8.7
23
.42
7.5
25
.11
1.1
-10
.12
3.1
24
.83
5.1
Infl
ati
on
Ra
te2
.61
8.8
3.5
24
.12
8.5
15
.61
4.8
14
.62
2.1
17
.82
1.8
7.8
1.0
4.8
3.8
-4.3
Bo
rro
win
g R
ate
7.1
23
.4-4
.07
.81
7.7
10
.61
6.5
15
.41
8.1
26
.32
0.3
13
.8-2
.51
7.1
19
.80
.3
11
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y T
yp
e o
f B
usin
ess
Imp
ort
er
19
.81
3.7
17
.62
2.6
20
.21
6.0
21
.61
5.2
18
.82
3.0
27
.11
7.0
15
.72
1.6
16
.52
0.7
Ex
po
rte
r2
.61
.51
.97
.54
.32
.53
.33
.34
.04
.33
.50
.51
.55
.01
.34
.3
Bo
th I
mp
ort
er
an
d E
xp
ort
er
11
.51
3.1
10
.91
0.9
7.3
8.3
9.8
8.1
9.3
13
.51
2.3
10
.08
.69
.81
1.8
11
.6
Ne
ith
er
Imp
ort
er
no
r e
xp
ort
er
66
.27
1.6
69
.75
9.0
68
.27
3.2
65
.47
3.4
67
.85
9.3
57
.17
2.5
74
.26
3.6
70
.56
3.4
12
. P
erc
en
tag
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y E
mp
loy
me
nt
Siz
e
Sm
all
(<
50
)7
8.5
74
.57
8.5
75
.67
5.0
78
.97
8.2
74
.17
7.6
66
.87
8.7
67
.57
3.0
75
.48
3.0
80
.1
Me
diu
m (
50
an
d <
20
0)
13
.21
61
3.6
15
.81
5.9
13
.51
5.0
17
.31
5.8
19
.01
1.8
14
.51
6.2
13
.69
.31
2.1
La
rge
(2
00
an
d U
p)
7.7
9.5
7.7
8.6
9.1
7.5
6.8
8.6
6.5
14
.39
.51
8.0
10
.91
1.1
7.8
7.8
No
Re
sp
on
se
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
. D
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f R
esp
on
de
nt
Fir
ms b
y S
ecto
r
All
Se
cto
rs3
49
38
83
76
38
53
96
39
93
99
39
63
98
40
03
99
39
33
96
39
84
00
39
6
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r7
31
07
10
51
17
10
41
18
11
71
15
11
91
22
11
41
16
12
21
19
11
51
11
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r1
64
74
34
83
44
24
14
44
44
23
93
43
93
62
93
4
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
97
90
97
99
92
10
21
00
10
81
02
10
01
18
11
21
14
11
11
21
13
5
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r o
f w
hic
h:
16
31
44
13
11
21
16
61
37
14
11
29
13
31
36
12
81
31
12
11
32
13
51
16
Fin
an
cia
l In
term
ed
iati
on
12
21
15
18
27
21
43
33
39
23
15
19
16
22
19
18
Ho
tels
an
d R
esta
ura
nts
31
40
38
31
55
48
48
39
42
44
42
34
38
32
29
28
Re
nti
ng
an
d B
usin
ess A
cti
vit
ies
17
21
35
31
47
27
24
26
25
26
30
25
23
24
22
21
Co
mm
un
ity
an
d S
ocia
l S
erv
ice
s7
62
43
41
37
41
26
31
27
43
41
53
44
54
65
49
14
. B
usin
ess O
utl
oo
k I
nd
ex
on
th
e M
acro
eco
no
my
by
Se
cto
r C
on
trib
uti
on
: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r3
.73
.42
.12
.94
.85
.34
.33
.06
.33
.33
.84
.31
.5-0
.53
.32
.5
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r0
.33
.90
.01
.01
.53
.32
.31
.34
.52
.02
.00
.0-2
.02
.8-1
.5-0
.3
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
4.0
3.1
2.4
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.5
0.3
6.3
6.3
4.5
3.1
-2.5
3.3
1.8
5.6
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r1
1.2
3.1
5.6
7.9
9.6
4.3
6.5
5.1
3.8
5.5
6.8
1.0
-2.5
3.0
3.3
5.3
15
. B
usin
ess C
on
fid
en
ce
In
de
x o
n O
wn
Op
era
tio
ns b
y S
ecto
r: C
urr
en
t Q
ua
rte
r
Ind
ustr
ial
Se
cto
r4
.04
.63
.23
.15
.34
.87
.35
.86
.57
.54
.07
.1-3
.31
.83
.53
.8
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Se
cto
r0
.32
.13
.72
.32
.03
.52
.83
.03
.01
.50
.31
.0-2
.50
.50
.00
.0
Wh
ole
sa
le a
nd
Re
tail
Tra
de
4.0
5.7
5.3
6.2
5.1
5.3
5.8
5.8
8.1
6.8
8.0
6.4
1.8
5.5
4.3
4.5
Se
rvic
es S
ecto
r 1
4.6
3.6
8.8
8.4
15
.29
.01
2.3
10
.66
.59
.06
.08
.41
.39
.87
.56
.9
20
12
20
13
TA
BLE
8B
US
INE
SS
EX
PE
CT
AT
ION
S S
UR
VE
Y
So
uth
We
st Z
on
e2
01
52
01
4
