Experian Automotive Quarterly · PDF file · 2017-12-19VIO market share for GM and...

© Experian Public

Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Third quarter 2017 automotive market share trends and registrations

Marty Miller | Senior Product Manager, Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

2 © Experian Public

Today’s presentation

Questions? Contact us at [email protected]

What’s on the RoadVIO by model year, segment, age and market share

U.S. light duty vehicles through September 30, 2017

Hurricane Harvey update

Marty MillerSenior Product Manager, VIO


U.S. and Canada total Vehicles in Operation = 316.3M

Light DutyPassenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans

Cars and GVW Class 1 – 3

Medium & Heavy DutyLarge Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs,

Cement Trucks, Semi-TractorsGVW Class 4 - 8

Power SportsMotorcycles, All-Terrain,

Utility Task, Snowmobiles


What’s on the road today?Light Duty Vehicles

Vehicles in Operation


Source: Experian Automotive as of

September 30, 2017 (U.S. light duty vehicles

only)

U.S. Vehicles In Operation – a 12 month viewQ3 2016

265.3millionVehicles on

the road

Q3 2017271

millionVehicles on

the road

17.1*

NEWVEHICLES

DEALER

42.6*

USEDVEHICLES

199.9*

NOCHANGES

11.4*EXIT

Out of Operation

*In millions; U.S. totals include Puerto Rico


U.S. VIO change by model year (in millions)Q3 2016 to Q3 2017

Current 20Model Years

87.7% of VIO

Current 25Model Years

95.2% of VIO

Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2017 (light duty vehicles only)


U.S. VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share



U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share



U.S. VIO by manufacturer market share top 7 trend

Source: Experian Automotive as of Q3 of each calendar year (light duty vehicles only)


U.S. VIO – country of assembly / brand type



U.S. VIO – drive wheel and cylinders market shares



• 6 to 12 model year old vehicles• Aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs• Likely require more part replacement & services (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that

may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers• Sizing the Sweet Spot helps identify overall market potential and changes can have implications to those

that service it

The Aftermarket “Sweet Spot”

• 13 model years old & older• Less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value

“Post Sweet Spot” vehicles

• 5 model years old & newer; many covered by the vehicle’s manufacturer warranty• Identifies models coming into the Sweet Spot

“Pre Sweet Spot” vehicles

The aftermarket “Sweet Spot” overview“Post” and “Pre” Sweet Spot defined


U.S. trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumesVIO by model year (in millions)

31% vehicles within “Sweet Spot”

(MY2006 – 2012)Pre-Sweet

Spot

Post-SweetSpot



U.S. Sweet Spot vehicles – domestic vs import brands



U.S. Sweet Spot vehicles – percentage within CBSA



Hurricane Harvey – August 25-29, 2017

Hurricane Harvey partial update


5 years ago - NYC/New Jersey shore areasHurricane Sandy impact area – October 29, 2012

Time Period New Used % of Avg % of Avg

Prior Registration Sales Jan - Sept 2012 average per month 77,032 107,548

Hurricane Sandy Oct 29 October 2012 52,555 75,585 68.2% 70.3%

Post Hurricane Sales November 2012 106,404 110,175 138.1% 102.4%

Post Hurricane Sales December 2012 83,940 88,734 109.0% 82.5%

Next Calendar Year Jan-Dec 2013 average per month 83,178 106,704 +8.0% -0.8%

© 2017 Experian


Hurricane Harvey New/Used Registrations within impact area

Time Period New Used % of Avg % of Avg

Prior Registration Sales Jan - July 2017 average per month 35,417 83,929

Hurricane Harvey August 25-29 Estimate Aug 2017 Estimate based on Sandy pct 24,154 59,002 68.2% 70.3%

Actual Sales August August 2017 New/Used sales 26,726 55,010 75.5% 65.5%

Actual Sales September September 2017 New/Used sales 52,732 87,032 148.9% 103.7%

Actual Sales October October 2017 New/Used sales 59,948 109,106 169.3% 130.0%

© 2017 Experian


Hurricane Harvey New/Used Registrations for impact area

Typical sales July; Lower sales August September and October sales increase

Source: Experian Automotive New/Used sales combined; light, medium and heavy duty vehicles only)


• Total light duty VIO continues to grow to 271 million in the U.S.

• VIO market share for GM and Ford continues to decline as older vehicles move out of operation

• Sweet Spot continues to decline, yet slowing– Central to eastern U.S. prime areas for Sweet Spot

vehicles in operation– Replacement part opportunities abound for those that

can utilize data analysis properly• Hurricane Harvey

– Harvey recovery for vehicle purchases takes months; Further analysis is expected in the next overview

– Consumers can utilize Experian’s AutoCheck vehicle history reports to help identify flooded vehicles for used vehicle purchases

Summary


Today’s presentation

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Experian Automotive Quarterly · PDF file · 2017-12-19VIO market share for GM and...

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