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UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK In re: RESIDENTIAL CAPITAL, LLC, et al., Debtors. ) ) ) ) ) ) ) Case No. 12-12020 (MG) Chapter 11 Jointly Administered EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN
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UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK

In re: RESIDENTIAL CAPITAL, LLC, et al., Debtors.

) ) ) ) ) ) )

Case No. 12-12020 (MG) Chapter 11 Jointly Administered

EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN

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I am an expert in the origination and securitization of mortgage loans. I have particular

experience with loan repurchases, loss reserves for mortgage loans, loan underwriting standards,

and the re-underwriting of loans underlying mortgage-backed securities.

I have been asked by the Debtors to offer expert testimony in connection with

confirmation of the proposed Chapter 11 plan for Residential Capital, LLC, et al. [Docket No.

4153].

SUMMARY OF OPINIONS

1. I have formed the following opinions concerning the proposed RMBS

Settlement:

Aggregate Lifetime Losses. The aggregate lifetime losses that will potentially be incurred by trusts included in the RMBS Settlement range from $42.1 billion to $42.9 billion.

Underwriting Defect Rates. My analysis of loans underwritten between 2004 and 2007, including a forensic re-underwriting of 1500 loans from that period, showed an average material underwriting defect rate of 43.5 percent. For loans issued before 2004, my analysis showed an average material underwriting defect rate of 35.1 percent.

Likely Damages After Legal Defenses and Litigation Costs. The likely amount of recoverable damages, after consideration of legal defenses and litigation costs, ranges from $7.38 billion to $8.6 billion.

2. I have formed the following opinions concerning the proposed Ambac

Settlement:

Aggregate Lifetime Losses. The aggregate lifetime shortfalls that will potentially be experienced by the Debtor-sponsored bonds insured by Ambac range from $225.6 million to $237.8 million.

Likely Damages. Ambac seeks rescissory damages or the equivalent thereof which, if awarded, would allow Ambac to

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recover all its losses. Ambac could also recover additional amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored by the Debtors. The likely amount of recoverable damages with respect to the Debtor-sponsored trusts ranges from $180.5 million to $237.8 million.

3. I have formed the following opinions concerning the proposed Assured

Settlement:

Aggregate Lifetime Losses. The aggregate lifetime shortfalls that will potentially be experienced by the bonds insured by Assured range from $73.6 million to $77.6 million.

Likely Damages. Assured seeks rescissory damages or the equivalent thereof, which, if awarded, would allow Assured to recover all its losses. Assured could also recover additional amounts for interest and fees, and for certain servicing claims. The likely range of recoverable damages with respect to the Debtor-sponsored trusts (excluding certain servicing-related claims that I have not analyzed) ranges from $58.9 million to $77.6 million.

4. I have formed the following opinions concerning the proposed FGIC

Settlement:

Aggregate Lifetime Losses. The aggregate lifetime shortfalls that will potentially be experienced by the bonds initially insured by FGIC range from $1.64 billion to $1.71 billion.

Likely Damages. FGIC seeks rescissory damages or the equivalent thereof, which, if awarded, would allow FGIC to recover all its losses. FGIC could also recover additional amounts for interest and fees. The likely range of recoverable damages with respect to the Debtor-sponsored trusts ranges from $1.31 billion to $1.7 billon.

5. I have formed the following opinions concerning the proposed MBIA

Settlement:

Aggregate Lifetime Losses. The aggregate lifetime shortfalls that will potentially be experienced by the bonds insured by MBIA range from $2.19 billion to $2.22 billion.

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Likely Damages. MBIA seeks rescissory damages or the equivalent thereof, which, if awarded, would allow MBIA to recover all its losses. MBIA could also recover additional amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding trusts not sponsored by the Debtors. The likely amount of recoverable damages with respect to the Debtor-sponsored trusts ranges from $1.75 billion to $2.22 billion.

BACKGROUND AND QUALIFICATIONS

6. I serve as Managing Partner for Fortace, LLC, an advisory and consulting

firm to banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies, trustees and other investors. My

curriculum vitae is attached as Annex A.

7. A key area of my work with Fortace relates to reviewing and opining on

the reasonableness of demands for the repurchase of mortgage loans based on alleged breaches

of representations and warranties. I have performed repurchase demand work for insurers and

lenders who have issued repurchase demands to sellers based on alleged breaches of

representations and warranties. As part of this work, I have developed loan audit selection

criteria, reviewed contractual obligations, performed loan-level audits, made recommendations

as to whether or not a repurchase demand should be issued, and participated in negotiations with

sellers on whether to repurchase loans. I have also performed work for sellers who have

received repurchase demands from trustees, insurers, and lenders for alleged breaches of

representations and warranties. As part of this work, I have reviewed contractual obligations,

reviewed repurchase demands and related findings and supporting evidence, performed loan

level audits, made recommendations to sellers as to whether representations or warranties were

breached, and participated in negotiations on whether to repurchase loans.

8. I have approximately 25 years of experience in the mortgage banking

industry. I have held senior executive positions at a federally insured bank, at a Wall Street

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investment bank, and at privately-held mortgage banking companies. I have managed residential

mortgage origination and loan operations, secondary marketing of mortgage loans, capital

market activities, treasury functions, and warehouse lending related to mortgage loan origination.

In particular, I have extensive experience in the residential mortgage market, including

origination, securitization, loss reserves, and repurchase-related activities related to Fannie Mae,

Freddie Mac, FHA, Prime Jumbo, Alt-A, subprime, home equity lines of credit, and closed-end

second lien residential mortgage loans.

DOCUMENTS, PUBLICATIONS, PRIOR TESTIMONY, EXHIBITS, AND COMPENSATION

9. Attached as Annex B is a list of the documents I considered in forming my

opinions. I have not authored any publications in the last ten years, and I have not testified as an

expert at trial or by deposition in the last four years other than in these proceedings. Attached as

Annexes C through I are the exhibits which summarize or support my opinions.

10. Fortace’s compensation is set forth in the Debtors’ Application for an

Order Authorizing Employment and Retention of Fortace LLC as Consultant to the Debtors

Nunc Pro Tunc to May 21, 2012, filed July 6, 2012 [Dkt. 704].

BASIS OF MY OPINIONS

I. BACKGROUND

11. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by the trustees of RMBS trusts

sponsored and/or serviced by the Debtors, as well as claims asserted by four monoline insurance

companies that insured certain of the bonds. The RMBS Settlement, unlike the previous RMBS

settlement agreement, does not include bonds for which a monoline insurer provided insurance.

Insured bonds are the subject of separate settlement agreements. Accordingly, I have formed

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separate opinions regarding the RMBS Settlement and monoline insurer settlements, which are

addressed in separate sections of this report.

A. Overview of the Debtors’ Mortgage Securitization Process.

12. The Debtors sponsored RMBS trusts covering a wide range of different

mortgage products. The Debtors also sold mortgage loans to third parties for inclusion in RMBS

sponsored by those third parties. In both situations, the loans are transferred to the RMBS trusts

through agreements in which the Debtors provided certain representations and warranties. The

representations and warranties may vary from RMBS trust to RMBS trust, but typically include,

among others, representations concerning accuracy of certain loan-level disclosures, that the

loans substantially complied with the Debtors’ underwriting guidelines, and that there was

proper documentation of the loans.

13. The RMBS trusts then issued bonds1 that are sold to investors or retained

by the Debtors. The structure of the trusts provides credit support that allows for payment to

some or all of the bonds even if some of the mortgage loans default or are liquidated with

collateral losses. There are a number of types of credit support, including overcollateralization

(placing more collateral in the trust than the face value of the bonds), excess spread (paying out

lower interest rates to bond holders than is received from the mortgagees), and subordination

(separating the bonds into tranches with different payment priorities so that subordinate bonds

absorb losses and provide support to the senior bonds).

14. As a way to further enhance the credit support of the bonds, a sponsor may

choose to obtain bond insurance for some of the bonds in a trust from a monoline bond insurance

company. The insurance, or “wrap,” guarantees full, complete and timely principal and interest 1 In this Report, the term bonds refers to all interests in the RMBS trusts, including any residual interests.

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payments to the holders of wrapped bonds issued by the RMBS trust. For this guarantee, the

monoline charges a premium or fee. The presence of the bond wrap is an added third-party

guarantee to the wrapped bond holders in addition to the underlying credit structure of the

RMBS trust, which reduces the overall risk to the wrapped bond holders. The Debtors utilized

bond wraps on 142 of the 581 Debtor-sponsored trusts.

B. The Debtors’ Alleged Breaches of Representations and Warranties.

15. If a seller breaches its representations and warranties to the trust, typically

by providing loans that deviate from the representations, the seller may be required to repurchase

the defective loan(s).

16. Generally, the standard for analyzing a breach of representations and

warranties requires an assessment of: (a) whether the alleged loan defect or alleged breach is an

actual and material breach of representations and warranties, and (b) whether such breach was

material and adverse to the interests of the bond holders (cumulatively the “R&W Repurchase

Standard”). If the R&W Repurchase Standard is met, the seller is required to repurchase non-

liquidated loans at the purchase price, or to reimburse the RMBS trust for any losses incurred in

the liquidation of the loan, as defined in the applicable agreements. If the R&W Repurchase

Standard is not met, the seller does not have an obligation to repurchase the loan or reimburse the

RMBS trust for liquidated losses.

17. When a trust is subject to a bond wrap at issuance, sellers generally also

provide representations and warranties to the monoline issuing the wrap and provide that certain

of the representations and warranties made to the trusts inure to the benefit of the monoline.

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18. The applicable agreements also provide remedies to the monoline that

include, if certain conditions are met, reimbursement from the seller for any payments made by

the monoline arising out of a breach of a representation and warranty.

II. OPINIONS REGARDING THE RMBS SETTLEMENT.

19. The RMBS Settlement covers all claims belonging to trusts sponsored by

the Debtors between 1999 and 2007.2 The 392 trusts sponsored between 2004 and 2007 were the

subject of a previous RMBS settlement agreement. The RMBS Settlement also releases all

claims belonging to 185 trusts sponsored by the Debtors between 1999 and 2004 (for a total of

581 trusts) that are the subject of this Report. 3

20. In addition, the RMBS Settlement covers all claims belonging to trusts

that were not sponsored by the Debtors but for which a Debtor either sold and/or serviced some

portion of the underlying mortgage loans. Of these, 160 trusts have representation and warranty

claims that are also included in my analysis.4

21. The RMBS Settlement does not provide for recovery to the trusts with

respect to any bonds insured by the monolines, so those wrapped bonds are not included in my

analysis of the RMBS Settlement.

2 The 741 trusts analyzed here are based on a list of trusts provided by the Debtors prior to the finalization of the Plan schedules filed on October 11, 2013. I am in the process of ascertaining and reconciling any discrepancies.

3 I understand that the trustees’ claims with respect to FGIC wrapped trusts were released as part of the FGIC settlement (other than claims with respect to any non-wrapped bonds), so the release of the trustees’ claims for the 47 FGIC wrapped trusts is not included in the valuation of the RMBS Settlement, leaving a total of 534 Debtor-sponsored trusts for the RMBS Settlement analysis.

4 I also understand that the RMBS Settlement provides for a $96 million payment in settlement of recognized cure claims based on allegations of improper loan servicing by the Debtors. I have not been asked to form any opinions regarding the settlement of those servicing claims, or certain allowed claim amounts in settlement of other servicing claims.

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A. The Debtor-Sponsored Trusts’ Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Losses.

22. There are a variety of methods accepted in the financial services industry

to estimate RMBS lifetime losses. I am familiar and have experience with these methods. To

form the opinions stated in this report, I employed a trust-level methodology based on frequency

and severity rates. Frequency and severity rate-based loss forecasting and historically-based

assumption development are two of the accepted methods for deriving an estimate of potential

repurchase exposure. These two methodologies are regularly used by market participants,

financial institutions and experts to estimate repurchase exposures, including estimates provided

by financial institutions in their regulatory filings, and independent third-party expert reports.

Accordingly, the methodologies I used in this report are generally accepted in the industry as

sound means of estimating lifetime losses.

Model Process Overview

Remittance Data

Preliminary Assumptions Development

Process

AssumptionsValidation

Process

Illumination & Intex Loss

Models

Outputs

Industry RMBS

Remittance Data

Trusts Remittance

Data

User Input

Assumptions

Model Calculated

Assumptions

Lower Range

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses

Settlement Trusts

Assumptions Validated

against actual Trusts

performance

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime

Loss Model Process Higher

Range Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses

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23. Step 1 - The first step in developing estimated loss ranges for RMBS

trusts is to obtain the historical borrower loan payment remittance data (“Remit Data”) for both

(1) the trusts, and (2) other industry RMBS trusts which consist of loan products and

securitization structures similar to the trusts.5 This Remit Data contains hundreds of data fields

including loan level payment histories, prepayment data, default data and loan level losses. The

Remit Data may be available on either a loan level basis or at a trust level basis. For the 581

Debtor-sponsored trusts, we were able to obtain loan level data from Loan Performance6 (“LP”)

and Intex.7 We utilized Remit Data from September 2013.

24. Step 2a – I employed Illumination (formerly WestPat LLC) to run their

proprietary RMBS estimated loss and cash flow model (the “Illumination Model”) to determine

estimated lifetime loss ranges for the trusts and tranches of wrapped bonds within the trusts for

which loan level Remit Data was available. The Illumination Model requires loan level Remit

Data. The Illumination Model is a commercially available estimated loss and cash flow model

used by mortgage lenders, mortgage bond investors and money managers to estimate loan losses

and cash flows and to value RMBS mortgage bonds.

25. Step 2b – For the trusts for which only trust level Remit Data was

available, I utilized the Intex Model, as defined below, to determine estimated lifetime loss

ranges for both the trusts and the tranches of wrapped bonds within those trusts. The Intex

Model is a commercially available cash flow model used by mortgage lenders, mortgage bond

5 The Illumination Model groups the RMBS trusts into the following categories: Alt A/Sub Prime, Prime, HELOC & Fixed 2nds.

6 CoreLogic Loan Performance is a provider of RMBS loan remittance data.

7 Intex Solutions, Inc. is a provider of structured fixed income cash flow models and RMBS remittance data.

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investors and money managers to estimate loan losses, cash flows and value RMBS mortgage

bonds (“Intex Model”).

26. Step 3 – Illumination and Intex Model assumption requirements and

discussion:

(a) Illumination Model assumptions:

(i) The Illumination Model independently develops its Validated Trust Assumptions for forecasting cash flows and estimated losses from actual historical performance of certain key data elements (“HIST PERF”) from the Remit Data for each of the trusts:

(a) Actual Trust Losses to date.

(b) Actual Severity Rates to date.

(c) Actual Constant Default Rates to date (“CDR”) aka Roll Rates or Frequency Rates.

(d) Actual Voluntary Constant Prepayment Rates (“VCPR”).

(e) Actual Loan Level Payment Histories to date (“PAY HIST”) aka Pay Strings.

(ii) Additionally, I provided a few macroeconomic assumptions to Illumination for use in the Illumination Model based on industry available data and my expert experience in developing these assumptions:

(a) Forward Yield Curve from September 30, 2013.

(b) The unemployment rate8 utilized was 8.1% from August 2013. The unemployment rate was held constant for the life of the loans.

(c) The current Combined Loan To Value (“CLTV”) was calculated using Case-Shiller9 home price data

8 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

9 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a leading measure of the U.S. residential housing market.

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as of July 2013. The model uses the zip code when available. If the zip code is not available, the model uses Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) level or state level data. Once the CLTV is updated, it is varied over time based on our Forward Home Price Index assumptions described below.

(d) FICO scores - The model does not update Borrowers’ FICO scores, the model utilizes the Borrowers’ origination FICO scores.

(e) LP and Intex Remit Data reflect the Trusts’ actual Losses to Date after applying any mortgage insurance claims paid to the Trusts. The LP and Intex Remit Data do not include any Monoline insurance claims paid to the Trustee for the benefit of the CertificateHolders.

(f) Forward Home Price Index (“HPI”) for distressed home sales.

(g) The Illumination Model varies time to foreclosure by state. The Illumination Model utilized time to foreclosure history through March 2012.

(b) Intex Model assumptions:

(i) The Intex Model requires the user to develop and input assumptions into the model. I provided assumptions for use in the Intex Model based on industry available data and my expert experience in developing these assumptions:

(a) Forward Yield Curve from September 30, 2013.

(b) VCPR – determined after reviewing each individual Settlement Trusts’ 6 month, 12 month and monthly time series trends.

(c) CDR - determined after reviewing each individual Settlement Trusts’ 6 month, 12 month and monthly time series trends.

(d) Severity Rates - determined after reviewing each individual Settlement Trusts’ monthly time series Severity trends.

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27. Step 4a – The Illumination Model evaluates RMBS trust historical Remit

Data for loan products and securitization structures similar to the trusts from the available

industry Remit Data from LP or Intex (“Industry RMBS Remit Data”) to develop the Preliminary

Industry RMBS Loss Assumptions utilized to estimate the remaining lifetime losses for these

Industry RMBS Trusts.

28. Step 4b - The Illumination Model then performs a series of regression

analyses to validate the Preliminary Industry RMBS Assumptions against the actual performance

of these Industry RMBS Trusts to create the validated assumptions for the Industry RMBS Trusts

(“Validated Industry RMBS Trust Assumptions”).

Validating the Industry RMBS Assumptions

4a. The Illumination Model evaluates the Industry Remit Data to develop Preliminary Industry Loss Assumptions utilized to forecast remaining lifetime losses for Industry RMBS Trusts

4b. The Illumination Model performs a series of regression analyses to validate the Preliminary Industry Loss Assumptions against the actual performance of these Industry RMBS Trusts

4b. The Illumination Model reviews the results of these regression analyses, modifies its assumptions and reruns the regressions analyses over and over until the Preliminary Industry Loss Assumptions closely match the actual Industry RMBS losses to date.

4b. Once the Preliminary Industry Loss Assumptions accurately forecast the actual performance, they are deemed Preliminary Trusts Assumptions and ready to be applied against the Trusts Remit data

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29. Step 4c - The Illumination Model then applies these Validated Industry

RMBS Trust Assumptions to the Trusts (“Preliminary Trusts Assumptions”). The Illumination

Model then performs a series of regression analyses to validate these Preliminary Trust

Assumptions against the actual performance of the trusts to obtain the validated Settlement Trust

assumptions (“Validated Trusts Assumptions”).

30. Step 4d - After this last regression analysis step, the Illumination Model

then utilizes the Validated Trust Assumptions for each of the trusts to forecast the remaining

lifetime losses for the trusts and for each tranche of bonds within each trust.

31. Step 5 - Determining the Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses for the

Non-Wrapped Trusts: I added the forecasted remaining lifetime losses of the non-wrapped trusts

Validating the Trusts Assumptions and Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses

4c. The Illumination Model then evaluates the Preliminary Trusts Assumptions for the useof forecasting the remaining lifetime losses for the Trusts.

4d. The Illumination Model performs a series of regression analyses to validate the Preliminary Trusts Assumptions against the actual performance of the Trusts.

4d. The Illumination Model reviews the results of these regression analyses , modifies its assumptions and reruns the regressions analyses over and over until the Preliminary Trusts Assumptions closely match the actual Trusts losses to dates.

4d. Once the Preliminary Settlement Trusts Assumptions closely match the actual performance, they are deemed Validated Trust Assumptions and they are applied to the Trusts to forecast the remaining lifetime losses.

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from the both the Illumination and Intex Models, for both the lower and higher ranges. For the

429 non-wrapped Debtor-sponsored trusts, the aggregate results were:

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses (in billions) 

 # of Trusts

Lower Range  Higher Range 

Non‐Wrapped Trusts  429 $7.4 $8.0 

32. Step 6 - Determining the Actual Losses to Date for the Non-Wrapped

Trusts: I added the actual trust losses to date for the trusts (other than shortfalls to the wrapped

bonds) from both the LP and Intex Remit Data. For the 429 non-wrapped Debtor-sponsored

trusts, the aggregate actual trust losses to date are $29.6 billion.

33. Step 7 – Determining the Total Estimated Lifetime Loss ranges for the

Non-Wrapped Trusts: I added the total actual trust losses to date to the forecasted remaining

lifetime losses to determine the total estimated lifetime loss for both the lower and higher ranges.

The calculations are illustrated below:

Total Estimated Losses for the Non‐Wrapped Debtor‐sponsored Trusts (in billions) 

  Lower Range  Higher Range 

Actual Losses to Date  $29.6  $29.6 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses  $7.4  $8.0 

Total Estimated Lifetime Losses  $37.0  $37.6 

34. The difference between the high and low ends of the range is explained by

the different assumptions supplied to the model. There are four assumptions that were varied

between the higher and lower estimated lifetime losses: constant default rate; severity; voluntary

constant prepayment rate; and forward home price index.

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35. Step 8- Determining the Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses for the

Non-Wrapped Bonds Within the Wrapped Trusts: I added the forecasted remaining lifetime

losses for the non-wrapped bonds within the wrapped trusts other than those wrapped by FGIC,

from the both the Illumination and Intex Models, for both the lower and higher ranges. The

calculations for the forecasted remaining lifetime losses to the non-wrapped bonds within

wrapped trusts are illustrated below:

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses 

(in billions) 

# of Trusts 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

105  $0.43  $0.46 

36. Step 9 - Determining the Actual Losses to Date for the Non-Wrapped

Trusts: I added the actual trust losses to date for the non-wrapped bonds within the wrapped

trusts from both the LP and Intex Remit Data. For the non-wrapped bonds in the 105 wrapped

Debtor-sponsored trusts, the aggregate actual trust losses to date are $3.1 billion.

37. Step 10 – Determining the Total Estimated Lifetime Loss ranges for the

Non-Wrapped Bonds Within Wrapped Trusts: I added the total actual trust losses to date to the

forecasted remaining lifetime losses to determine the total estimated lifetime loss for the non-

wrapped bonds within wrapped trusts, for both the lower and higher ranges. The calculations are

illustrated below:

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Total Estimated Losses for the Non‐Wrapped Bonds in  Wrapped Debtor‐sponsored Trusts 

(in billions) 

  Lower Range  Higher Range 

Actual Losses to Date  $3.1  $3.1 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Losses  $0.43  $0.46 

Total Estimated Lifetime Losses  $3.53  $3.56 

38. Step 11 – Adding the Total Estimated Lifetime Loss ranges for the Non-

Wrapped Trusts and the Non-Wrapped Bonds Within Wrapped Trusts: for both the lower and

higher ranges, I added the total estimated lifetime loss for the non-wrapped trusts to the total

estimated lifetime loss for the non-wrapped bonds within wrapped trusts. The calculations are

illustrated below.

LOWER RANGE (in billions)

 # of Trusts 

Actual Losses to Date 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime 

Losses 

Total Estimated Lifetime Losses 

Non‐Wrapped Trusts  429  $29.6  $7.3  $36.9 

Non‐Wrapped Bonds in Wrapped Trusts 

105  $3.1  $0.43  $3.53 

Total  534  $32.7  $7.73  $40.4 

HIGHER RANGE (in billions) 

 # of Trusts 

Actual Losses to Date 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime 

Losses 

Total Estimated Lifetime Losses 

Non‐Wrapped Trusts  429  $29.6  $8.0  $37.6 

Non‐Wrapped Bonds in Wrapped Trusts 

105  $3.1  $0.46  $3.57 

Total  534  $32.7  $8.46  $41.13 

39. The trust level data and calculations for the non-wrapped Debtor-

sponsored trusts are set forth in Annex C.

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B. The Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Losses For Trusts Not Sponsored by the Debtors.

40. The RMBS Settlement also resolves claims belonging to 160 trusts that

were not sponsored by the Debtors. These non-Debtor-sponsored trusts will be allocated a

portion of the RMBS Settlement based on the percentage of the loans in each trust for which one

of the Debtors was the seller (typically meaning they originated the underlying loan). I have

conducted a preliminary analysis to estimate a range of potential lifetime losses for the non-

Debtor-sponsored trusts and my work to refine that analysis and narrow the estimated range is

ongoing.

41. Schedules 3g and 3r to the Plan identify the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts

with potential repurchase claims against the Debtors based on loans within the trusts sold by the

Debtors. Those schedules also set forth the percentage of loans within each trust that were sold

by the Debtors, based on analysis conducted by Duff & Phelps (“Duff”).

42. First, I reviewed the methodology that Duff used to determine the seller

percentage for the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts. Duff relied on the percentage of loans identified

in the bond offering documents as having been sold by the Debtors. Where that information was

not available in the offering documents, Duff used the percentage of loans being serviced by the

Debtors. Duff’s methodology is reasonable and is based on public historical information. I

independently confirmed the seller percentages set forth on Schedules 3g and 3r for a sample of

the trusts, based on the same methodology. Having found no errors, I relied on seller

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percentages set forth in Schedules 3g and 3r for the remainder of the trusts.10 The average Seller

Percentage for the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts on the schedules is 7.5%.

43. Second, using the same data sources that I used for my analysis of the

Debtor-sponsored trusts, I independently collected the current outstanding balance and the total

collateral losses to date (as of September 2013 remittance) for each of the non-Debtor-sponsored

trusts identified on Schedules 3g and 3r. Actual losses to date make up the majority of the losses

for deals originated prior to 2007, as demonstrated by my analysis of the Debtor-sponsored

trusts. For the 160 non-Debtor-sponsored trusts, the aggregate actual trust losses to date are

$1.32 billion.

44. Third, I adjusted the actual losses to reflect the percentage of the collateral

that was sold by the Debtors, as reflected by the Seller Percentage described above, to determine

the portion of the trust collateral losses potentially attributable to the Debtors. I performed this

calculation at the trust level, applying each trust’s Seller Percentage to its respective actual trust

losses to date.

45. Fourth, I estimated that the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts would, on

average, experience future losses in the same proportion to outstanding collateral balance that

was forecast by my cash flow modeling of the Debtor-sponsored trusts. The non-Debtor-

sponsored trusts span a similar range of years (1999 to 2007) and product types, and the loans in

those trusts that were sold by Debtors are therefore likely to perform similarly, on average, to the

loans in the Debtor-sponsored deals from the same time period.

10 Schedules 3g and 3r were updated in a supplemental filing on October 11, 2013. My analysis relied on the prior version of the Schedules filed with the Plan on August 23, 2013, and I am in the process of updating my analysis to account for any discrepancies.

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46. Fifth, I determined that for the 581 Debtor-sponsored trusts for which I

had generated forecasts using trust-level cash flow models, the lower and higher range estimates

of forecast lifetime potential losses were 14.6% to 15.9% of the outstanding collateral balance,

on average. The figures are:

Debtor‐sponsored Trusts 

# of Trusts 

Total Outsanding Principal Balance 

(“OPB”) 

Lower Range Forecasted Remaining 

Lifetime Losses 

Higher Range  Forecasted Remaining 

Lifetime Losses 

billions  % of OPB  Billions  % of OPB 

581  $55.5  $8.1  14.6%  $8.8  15.9% 

47. Sixth, I used those percentages to estimate the total potential lifetime

losses to the portion of the collateral in the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts that was sold by the

Debtors, based on the current total outstanding balance for the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts. The

figures are:

Non‐Debtor‐sponsored Trusts 

# of Trusts 

Total Outsanding Principal Balance 

(“OPB”) 

Adjusted for Seller 

Percentage 

Lower Range Forecasted Remaining 

Lifetime Losses 

Higher Range  Forecasted Remaining 

Lifetime Losses 

billions  % of OPB  billions  % of OPB 

160  $29.3  7.5%  $0.3  14.6%  $0.4  15.9% 

48. Adding the Total Estimated Lifetime Loss ranges for the Debtor-

sponsored Trusts and the non-Debtor-sponsored Trusts: for both the lower and higher ranges, I

then added the total estimated lifetime loss for the Debtor-sponsored trusts to the total estimated

lifetime loss for the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts. The calculations are illustrated below

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Total Non‐Wrapped Forecasted Lifetime Losses  (in billions) 

  Lower Range  Higher Range 

Debtor‐sponsored Trusts  $40.5  $41.2 

Non‐ Debtor‐sponsored Trusts  $1.6  $1.7 

Total  $42.1  $42.9 

49. The trust level data and calculations for the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts

are set forth in Annex D. I am in the process of updating and refining my analysis based on the

updated Plan schedules.

C. Underwriting Defect Rates For Debtor-Sponsored and Non-Sponsored Trusts.

50. The second step of my analysis involved estimating the number of loans

with material underwriting defects. This allowed me to calculate the losses that will be incurred

on loans sold in material breach of representations and warranties.

51. For my analysis of the prior RMBS settlement, I estimated the number of

loans with material underwriting defects using two distinct, and widely-accepted, methodologies.

The first methodology was based on the Debtors’ historical loan repurchase experience. After

performing that initial analysis, I had the opportunity to conduct a forensic re-underwriting of

approximately 1,500 randomly-selected loans securitized between 2004 and 2007. This allowed

me to determine, for a representative sample of loans within those trusts, the potential level of

material underwriting defects.11

52. The two methods produced similar results. For purposes of this Report, I

relied on the results from the second methodology—my forensic underwriting analysis—and

11 The expedited re-underwriting review did not consider the potential to cure missing documentation defects, or certain other arguments that might justify deviations from the general underwriting guidelines, so the actual level of material defects may be lower than the rates of potential underwriting defects identified here.

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then multiplied the amount of estimated aggregate lifetime losses by the likely material defect

rate determined through that underwriting analysis in order to determine the amount of losses

that will be incurred on loans with likely material defects.

53. The approximately 1,500 loans reviewed for my underwriting analysis

were chosen from the 392 trusts involved in the prior settlement. Dr. Brad Cornell, a consultant

hired by the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, made a random selection of 1,500 loans

from across all 392 trusts involved in the earlier RMBS settlement. I assumed, for purposes of

my analysis, that his sample selection was properly randomized and representative of the entire

population of approximately 1.6 million loans underlying the 392 trusts involved in the earlier

settlement.

54. A team of forty-two loan underwriters, and three underwriting managers,

working under my direction, re-underwrote these loans using the Debtors’ own underwriting

guidelines. The underwriters have a minimum of three years of experience in one or more of the

following areas: residential mortgage underwriting, mortgage loan auditing, mortgage loan

quality control and mortgage re-underwriting experience. The underwriting managers have five

or more years of experience in one or more of these same areas.

55. The re-underwriting process involved a review of each loan’s “loan file.”

My team considered, and recalculated, the various credit and other metrics used in the

underwriting process, including debt-to-income ratios, loan-to-value ratios, and combined loan-

to-value ratios. My team also considered income documentation, employment documentation,

asset documentation; appraisals, credit scores and reports, insurance documentation, title

documentation and insurance, and other transaction details as necessary when available. The

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team of underwriters also used various industry-standard third-party verification tools to help

validate origination information.

56. As a first step, my team of underwriters, underwriting managers and I

familiarized ourselves with the applicable underwriting guidelines and automated underwriting

system (AUS) loan approval formats to ensure that our re-underwriting analysis of the loan files

was based on those requirements. These included the GMAC RFC Client Guides, GMAC RFC

Client Guide Bulletins, other Lender underwriting guidelines, as applicable, and AUS Loan

Approval formats.

57. Next, my team conducted a review of the loan file (where available) for

each of the 1500 loans, and recalculated and recorded various credit and other metrics relevant to

the underwriting analysis. These metrics included, among others, the debt-to-income ratio, loan-

to-value ratio, and combined loan-to-value ratio. My team also otherwise reviewed the loans for

compliance with the AUS loan approval or applicable underwriting guidelines.

58. The re-underwriting process included, among other things, a review of the

following characteristics and a comparison of those characteristics to the applicable underwriting

guidelines or AUS, as applicable:

(a) Income: The income related documentation, if any, required to

satisfy the underwriting guidelines;

(b) Employment: The employment related documentation, if any,

required to satisfy the underwriting guidelines;

(c) Assets: The asset related documentation, if any, required to satisfy

the underwriting guidelines;

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(d) Appraisal: The appraisal related documentation, if any, required to

satisfy the underwriting guidelines;

(e) Credit: The credit related documentation, if any, required to

satisfy the underwriting guidelines;

(f) Insurance: The insurance documentation, if any, required to

satisfy the underwriting guidelines;

(g) Title: The title documentation, if any, required to satisfy the

underwriting guidelines; and

(h) Transaction details: The transaction related documentation, if any,

including the Purchase Contract if applicable, required to satisfy the underwriting guidelines.

59. During the course of the review, my team used various industry-accepted

third-party re-verification tools to help validate origination information.

(i) MERS: The MERS Link report allowed the underwriters to check

if there were any undisclosed mortgages at the time of origination of the subject loan that were

not disclosed by the borrower and not included in their debt-to-income ratios.

(j) Accurint: The Deep Skip Search report allowed the underwriters

to validate whether or not the borrower(s) were associated with the subject property during the

required period after the close of the subject loan for owner occupied transactions.

(k) The Work Number: The Current and Previous Employment report

available through The Work Number allowed the underwriters to validate income and

employment for borrowers whose employers provide employment data to The Work Number.

(l) Verbal Verification of Employment (VVOE): If the underwriters

were unable to obtain the employment information from The Work Number, then he or she

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might elect to obtain the employment information directly from the employer and record the

results on a VVOE form.

60. The underwriters recorded the results of their review on a spreadsheet

template, entitled “Re-Underwriting Findings Summary Report,” that I designed for this purpose.

Among other things, the underwriters records kept track of the product type (such as subprime or

HELOC) of each loan reviewed.

61. Once the underwriters completed their work, the underwriting managers

performed quality control checks on a portion of the results to assess the accuracy and

completeness of the information presented. As part of these reviews, the underwriting managers

validated the accuracy of the underwriters’ findings against the data and documents in the

imaged loan files, checked some or all of the underwriters’ calculations, and referred to the

applicable guidelines or AUS as needed.

62. After the underwriting managers completed their review of the findings, I

then reviewed the Re-Underwriting Findings Summary Report for each and every one of the

loans, and made the ultimate determination as to whether a loan was “materially defective” based

on the information available. To the extent I deemed it necessary or desirable to refer to the

actual loan file or underwriting guidelines, the AUS or Loan Approval, or the governing

agreements, those materials were available to me and I made use of them. I also had

conversations with the underwriters and underwriting managers on my team during which I

posed questions and obtained clarification regarding various aspects of the loans reviewed if I

felt it was necessary.

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63. If the loan was underwritten substantially in accordance with the

applicable guidelines or AUS, I designated the loan to be in substantial compliance (“In

Substantial Compliance”).

64. If the loan appeared based on the review to have defects that materially

increased the risk of the loan, I deemed the loan to be materially defective (“Materially

Defective”).12 Ultimately, there is a degree of subjectivity in the determination of whether a loan

substantially complies with the guidelines or whether any deviation is material, and I endeavored

to be conservative in those judgments so as not to understate the potential level of material

defects.

65. After reviewing the work performed by my team of underwriters, I

determined that 652 of the loans in the sample, or 43.5%, had material underwriting defects.

66. For trusts formed before 2004, I analyzed early payment defaults to

determine a defect rate for the loans prior to 2004. There is a known correlation between early

payment defaults and significant underwriting defects.13 Accordingly, I analyzed early

delinquency rates in order to estimate the defect rate for the pre-2004 trusts. Using aggregate

loan performance data for the Debtors’ RMBS shelves prior to and after 2004, as available from

the Vision website, I compared the rate of severely delinquent loans (i.e. loans that were 90 days

or more delinquent, or in foreclosure or REO) at 12 months after issuance of each vintage. From

that comparison, I created a ratio of the Debtors’ average severely delinquent percentage prior to

12 For purposes of this expedited review, I used a lack of substantial compliance with applicable guidelines as a proxy for breaches of contractual representations and warranties; consideration of additional information, including specific aspects of the securitization transaction documents, could impact the results.

13 See Early Payment Default – Links to Fraud and Impact on Mortgage Lenders and Investment Banks, BasePoint Analytics LLC (2007), attached hereto as Annex G.

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2004, as compared to 2004 and after. To estimate the pre-2004 defect rate, I then multiplied that

ratio by the 43.5% defect rate of the 2004-2007 trusts.

67. On average, 4.23% of the 2004 to 2007 loans were severely delinquent

one year after issuance, whereas 3.41% of the pre-2004 loans were severely delinquent one year

after issuance. In other words, the severe delinquency rate prior to 2004 was 80.6% of the later

severely delinquent rate. Based on the correlation between severe delinquencies and

underwriting defects, I applied a defect rate for the pre-2004 loans that was 80.6% of the 2004 to

2007 defect rate, which works out to a 35.1% defect rate for the pre-2004 loans. The

delinquency ratio data and calculations are set forth in Annex E.

D. Likely Damages After Factoring In Legal Defenses And Litigation Expenses.

68. The third step in my analysis involved estimating the likely damages that

could be recovered by the trusts after consideration of legal defenses to repurchase demands and

litigation costs. I did this by applying a discount (the “Settlement Factor”) to the amount of

losses on loans with material defects. The discount was based on the Debtors’ own historical

repurchase experience, industry repurchase data, my own experience with loan repurchase

demands, and the opinions of other experts regarding legal defenses and litigation expenses. I

then multiplied the amount of losses that will be incurred on loans with material defects with the

Settlement Factor I calculated.

69. I determined it is appropriate to use a Settlement Factor of 41% to 47%.

70. The Debtors had, over the preceding five years, received and responded to

requests for the repurchase of thousands of loans based on alleged breaches of representations or

warranties. Most of the requests were made by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and some came from

various mortgage loan insurers. The Debtors’ historical experience in accepting, or rejecting,

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repurchase demands offers a robust pre-litigation source of verifiable and objective data

regarding the effectiveness of the Debtors’ legal and factual defenses.

71. Prior to March 2012, there was not much in terms of public disclosures

with any insight into Settlement Factors for alleged breaches of representations and warranties.

However, beginning in March of 2012, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and over a dozen Private Label

Sellers have filed Regulation AB 15-G repurchase demand data with the SEC, including their

rate of agreed repurchases.

72. The Debtors’ historical repurchase demand experience with Fannie Mae

and Freddie Mac is publicly reported in those entities’ SEC filings and has been summarized in a

report published by the Inside Mortgage Finance publication. I used data for repurchase

demands by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rather than repurchase demand data for private label

securities (like those included in the RMBS settlement trusts), because the government-

sponsored enterprises’ data are much more robust and reliable.

73. The Debtors’ 2006-2008 GSE historical repurchase data, based on both

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s Regulation AB 15-G SEC filings, as summarized in Inside

Mortgage Finance’s Special Report (“IMF Special Report”),14 are as follows:

Seller/Originators Repurchase Demands (millions)

Repurchased Pending Disputed

GMAC Mortgage / Ally (the Debtors)

$1,537.81 67.56% 2.60% .50%

All Seller / Originators

$65,836.91 49.54% 12.58% 4.15%

14 In this Special Report, the Debtor is referred to as “GMAC Mortgage / Ally.” An excerpt of this report is attached hereto as Annex H.

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74. As reflected in the above chart, the average GSE Agree Rates for all

sellers was 49.54% and 67.56% for the Debtors. In our assumptions, we discount the GSE agree

rates based on the less stringent representations and warranties found in the Debtors’ trusts’

governing agreements when compared to the stronger representations and warranties found in the

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agreements. For example, in many of Debtors’ trusts’ governing

agreements there is little to no fraud representation or warranty language, and the requirements

to conform to the Underwriting Guidelines are often qualified with “generally” or “substantially”

in compliance with the Underwriting Guidelines, which are both lower standards than are found

in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac agreements.

75. The GSEs have requested sellers to repurchase approximately $66 billion

in loans as noted in their recent SEC filings as summarized in IMF Special Report,15 while

industry estimates forecast that sellers of non-GSE securities, known as PLS, will repurchase

hundreds of billions in loans, resulting in seller losses of approximately $133 billion according to

Compass Point Research.16 As of the date of my review in connection with the prior RMBS

settlement, the data regarding repurchase demands concerning private label securities, suffered

from a large percentage of unresolved demands. For example, 82% of repurchase demands from

private-label trusts remain unresolved, while only 3.1% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain

unresolved. Rather than using an incomplete and unreliable data set, I relied on repurchase

demand data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

15 See Annex H.

16 See Annex I: Compass Point Research on Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim, dated August 17, 2010.

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76. According to data contained in SEC filings for Fannie Mae and Freddie

Mac, the Debtors accepted 67.5% of all repurchase demands asserted by Fannie Mae and Freddie

Mac. Industry data published by the Inside Mortgage Finance publication shows that all sellers

of mortgage-backed securities accepted 49.5% of all repurchase demands asserted by Fannie

Mae and Freddie Mac. Thus, the Debtors’ acceptance rate for repurchase demands is

substantially higher than that of the industry as a whole.

77. I recognize that, in the litigation context, plaintiffs would strongly dispute

the application of any discount based on the strength of representations and warranties at issue.

Nonetheless, in my analysis, I applied a substantial discount to the Debtors’ acceptance rate due

to the more stringent representations and warranties found in the governing agreements for loans

sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In other words, I assumed that the Debtors would have

stronger repurchase defenses, and would prevail more often, in disputes with owners of the

private label mortgage-backed securities than the Debtors would in disputes with Fannie Mae

and Freddie Mac.

78. In preparation for my Original Declaration, I also reviewed the publicly-

available settlement information relating to the following settlements:

Seller/Originator Securitization Type Settlement Amount Date Bank of America PLS $8,500,000,000 June 201117

Lehman PLS $40,000,000 November 2011 Bank of America Fannie Mae $1,520,000,000 January 2012 Bank of America Freddie Mac $1,280,000,000 January 2012

79. Both the Bank of America (“BofA”) and Lehman PLS settlements and the

corresponding RMBS trusts are similar in terms of the securitization structure, issuance years,

mortgage loan product mix, governing agreements and R&W repurchase standards.

17 Bank of America settlement for 530 trusts is pending court approval.

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80. Based on the above and in consideration of the costs, risks and

uncertainties if the parties do not mutually agree on the repurchase population and have to resort

to litigation to resolve their differences, we have discounted the Debtors’ GSE repurchase rates

and have assumed the trusts’ Settlement Factor ranges between a low of 41% and a high of 47%.

The following chart shows a comparison of this Settlement Factor to that used in the BofA

Expert Report and Lehman Expert Declaration:

Description Settlement Factor Assumptions Lower Range Higher Range

Trusts 41% 47% BofA Expert Report 40% 40%

Lehman Expert Declaration 30% 40%

81. The Settlement Factor assumptions for the lower range are similar in this

Report and the BofA Expert Report, while the Lehman Expert Declaration lower range

assumption is a more aggressive assumption than in my Report or the BofA Expert Report. The

Settlement Factor assumptions for the higher range utilized in this Report are higher than those

used in both the BofA Expert Report and the Lehman Expert Declaration. I concluded that

higher Settlement Factor assumptions in this Report are correlated to the Debtors’ substantially

higher actual rate of agreement with the GSEs when compared to the industry as a whole,

67.56% versus 49.54%. Given the above, these Settlement Factor assumptions are in my

professional opinion reasonable for the trusts.

82. Applying the total estimated lifetime loss, defect rate, and Settlement

Factor figures set forth above, the range of the Debtors potential liability to the trusts included in

the RMBS Settlement is $7.4 billion to $8.6 billion. The calculations are:

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Estimated Lifetime Losses

x Defect Rate

=Losses on Defective

Loans x

Settlement Factor Range

= Final Range of

Likely Damages

Low High Low High Low High Low High

2004-2007 Trusts

$38.2 $38.9 43.5% $16.6 $16.9 41% 47% $6.8 $7.9

Pre-2004 Trusts

$3.89 $3.93 35.1% $1.36 $1.38 41% 47% $.56 $.65

Total $42.1 $42.9 $18.0 $18.3 $7.4 $8.6

III. OPINIONS REGARDING THE MONOLINE SETTLEMENTS.

83. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by four monoline insurance

companies relating to RMBS trusts for which they provided insurance, promising to pay

investors to compensate for any shortfall in principal or interest payments to wrapped bonds.18

84. As a result, the first step in my analysis of the Debtors’ potential liability

to the monolines was to estimate the potential lifetime payments by each monoline to cover

shortfalls in principal and interest payments to the wrapped bonds.

A. Methodology for Estimating Aggregate Lifetime Shortfall Exposure.

85. I estimated the monolines’ aggregate lifetime shortfall exposure using the

same Illumination and Intex cash flow models discussed above, to simulate the cash flows to

each tranche of bonds. Those models allowed me to obtain forecasted cash flows not just at the

trust level, but also for specific tranches of bonds.

86. The shortfall to wrapped bonds is not the same as the collateral losses to

the trust issuing the bonds for a number of reasons. RMBS are premised on the assumption that

some mortgages will default, and one of the key features of RMBS securitization structures is to 18 I understand that certain monolines also asserted claims against Ally Financial, Inc., and that all four monoline settlements and the RMBS settlement form part of the Plan that includes a third party release of claims against AFI. I have been informed that the third party release is beneficial to the Debtors, the creditors and third parties but I have not performed any calculations to estimate the value of that third party release.

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provide protection, or credit support, so that payments can be made to investors of certain more

senior bonds even if there are some losses on the underlying mortgages. The level of credit

support available to protect investors in any given bonds depends on the expected level of losses

at the time of the transaction, the credit support structure of the trust and the level of risk (and

resulting higher return) selected by the investor.

87. There are a number of types of credit support available to insulate

wrapped bonds from collateral losses, including overcollateralization, excess spread, and

subordination, as discussed above. Monoline insurers do not wrap the lowest, equity tranche of

bonds in the RMBS structure. In some transactions, there may also be additional tranches of

subordinate bonds that are not wrapped. Because of these and other credit enhancement features,

not every decline in the value of collateral will result in a failure to make required timely

payments of interest and principal to wrapped bonds. 

88. The credit support available to wrapped bonds changes on a monthly

basis based on factors such as the accumulation of excess spread, so the timing of collateral

losses is important and one cannot determine the extent to which those losses will result in

shortfalls to any particular tranche of bonds without running a cash flow model that simulates the

payments coming in and out of the RMBS trust on a monthly basis.

89. Consistent with my analysis of the non-wrapped trusts, I used the

Illumination and Intex cash flow models to determine the extent to which future collateral losses

on the underlying mortgages would result in payment shortfalls to each tranche of wrapped

bonds and thus potential claims payments by the monolines.

90. In modeling the cash flows for the wrapped bonds, I used the same

variables and assumptions as I used to model lifetime collateral losses for the Debtors’ non-

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wrapped trusts. However, the Illumination and Intex models have a feature to forecast payments

from the monoline insurer that reduce forecasted loss to the wrapped bonds, because the ultimate

loss to the bond holders, net of payments from the monoline, is an important consideration to

bond investors. For my purpose of estimating potential losses to the monolines, I set this feature

of the model to assume that there would be no payments from the monoline. As a result, the

model output of future losses to the wrapped bonds reflects the entire potential future shortfall of

principal and interest for which the monoline is potentially liable.19

B. Estimating Potential Monoline Damages and Accounting for Settlement

91. The second step of my analysis was to consider potential defenses and

other considerations in litigating or settling the monoline claims. The nature of the monolines’

claims is different than the trusts’ claims and therefore my evaluation of the Debtors’ potential

liability to the monolines, and of the litigation and settlement factors, is also different.

92. First, I understand that the monolines have asserted claims – such as

claims for fraudulent inducement and material breach of contract – under which, upon proving

material breaches of representations and warranties, they would be entitled to recover the entire

aggregate lifetime shortfalls on all the trusts for which they provided insurance. If the foregoing

is correct, then there is no need to consider the extent to which each monoline’s shortfall resulted

from material underwriting defects. Instead, the full amount of the shortfalls I calculated in step

one of my analysis could be recovered by each monoline without reduction.

93. Second, the monolines assert that they are also entitled to indemnification

of legal expenses, costs, and interest under the governing agreements. Therefore, in addition to

19 I did not evaluate the impact of any potentially offsetting premiums paid to the monolines, which I understand to be relatively small compared to the claims and, as noted below, would also have been factored in to the comparable settlements discussed herein.

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defenses that might lead the monolines to recover less than the wrapped bond shortfalls, I also

must consider the possibility that the monolines would recover more than the wrapped bond

shortfalls.

94. I also understand that RMBS sponsors have argued that monolines may

only recover the shortfall in principal and interest payments caused by the Debtors’ failure to

repurchase defective loans.

95. As discussed above, for my analysis of loans in the Debtor-sponsored non-

wrapped trusts, I conducted a re-underwriting of approximately 1500 loans of various types sold

by the Debtors between 2004 and 2007. However, the sample of loans underwritten for that

analysis is not necessarily representative of the loans in any trust wrapped by a monoline. The

Debtors structured their RMBS issuances to securitize different types of loans in different trusts.

For example, the trusts with the designation “HE” in the name (such as GMACM 2005-HE3) are

backed by home equity loans, whereas the trusts designated RALI “QH” are backed by Alt-A

loans. Each trust therefore has distinct characteristics that may impact the defect rates.

Comparing the defect rates between different product types within my original sample revealed

wide range of likely defects, from approximately 20% to 60%, depending on the product type.

However, those subsets of my initial underwriting sample are not necessarily statistically

representative of any product type as whole from 2004 to 2007, nor within any particular vintage

or trust. Moreover, each monoline’s potential liability is unevenly distributed among the trusts it

wrapped, so variation in the defect rate for any particular vintage or trust could be material.

96. Given the time constraints, it was not possible to conduct additional

sampling and review the hundreds or thousands of additional loan files that would be necessary

to construct representative loan samples for each wrapped trust. Therefore, I did not apply a

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defect rate to the wrapped trusts, and my work to evaluate the potential impact of varying defect

rates is ongoing.

97. I looked at recent monoline settlements to determine a likely range of

potential liability to the monolines based on the bond losses. The monoline settlement values, as

compared to the monolines’ potential bond loss exposure being settled, reflect the combined

influence of (i) any discount based on legal defenses or other litigation considerations, (ii) the

monolines’ claims for indemnification for fees, expenses and interest, and (iii) any potential

offset for premiums received by the monolines.

98. In preparation for this Report, I reviewed publicly-available settlement

information relating to the following settlements:

Monoline Seller/Originator Date Collateral Losses

Bond Losses

Settlement Payment

Notes

Assured Bank of America April 2011 $1.3b $0 $1.1b Plus 80% of future bond losses

Syncora Bank of America July 2012 - $402m $375m Plus transfer of securities

Assured UBS May 2013 - 308.2m20 358m Plus future loss sharing

MBIA Flagstar May 2013 $225m $165m $110m Plus other consideration

Assured Flagstar June 2013 - $89.1 $106.5 After trial awarding full losses, fees and

costs

99. The publicly available information did include not all material terms of the

settlements, including, for example, the value of certain non-cash consideration or expected

future claims. As a result, it is difficult to draw precise conclusions from these settlements. The

20 This figure was based the complaint and does not account for any additional bond losses incurred between that time and settlement.

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available information does demonstrate, however, that settlement of monoline claims at a small

discount, if any, to estimated bond losses, is within the range of recent settlements.

100. The Assured v. Bank of America (April 2011) settlement disclosed the

actual collateral losses to date ($1.3 billion) as well as settlement payment ($1.1 billion), which

reflects payment of approximately 85% of the collateral losses to date, even though none of the

collateral losses had yet translated into bond losses reimbursed by Assured. The settlement also

provided that Bank of America would pay 80% of any future losses on the wrapped bonds, up to

a cap of approximately five times the losses to date.

101. The more recent Syncora v. Bank of America settlement (July 2012)

disclosed the actual bond losses reimbursed by Syncora ($145 million) and the outstanding but

unpaid claims to Syncora ($257 million), as well as the up-front settlement amount ($375

million). The settlement reflected a payment of 93% of the claim amounts to Syncora to date.

No information was provided concerning expected future payments by Syncora. However, the

settlement did also provide for additional consideration to Syncora including the transfer of

certain securities, the value of which was not disclosed. Therefore, it is unclear whether the

settlement amount reflected any reduction from Syncora’s expected payment obligations.

102. In connection with the Assured v. Flagstar settlement (June 2013), I also

reviewed the opinion written by Judge Rakoff following the Assured v. Flagstar trial (February

2013). After trial, the court awarded Assured full reimbursement for its payments made under

the policy ($89.1 million), as well as legal expenses and other costs to be determined later. It did

so based on evidence that Flagstar’s obligation to repurchase defective loans would have been

sufficient to cover the entire loss to bonds wrapped by Assured. The parties subsequently settled

for $106.5 million, on top of which Flagstar will also reimburse Assured for all future claims on

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its insurance policies. This settlement after trial thus reflects a roughly 15-20% premium over

the total shortfall to the wrapped bonds.

103. Based on these recent monoline settlements and the possibility that the

monolines could recover more than the wrapped bond losses, I determined that it was appropriate

to apply a Settlement Factor range from 80% of the total expected bond losses to 100% of the

total bond losses, while recognizing that a payment above the total bond losses to account for

potential indemnification expenses and interest payments, as occurred in Assured v. Flagstar, is

not outside the range of reasonableness.

104. The trust level data and calculations for the bonds wrapped by each of the

four monolines are set forth in Annex F.

C. Opinions Regarding the Ambac Settlement.

105. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by Ambac relating to 64 Debtor-

sponsored RMBS trusts for which Ambac provided insurance, promising to pay investors to

compensate for any shortfall in principal or interest payments in the Wrapped bonds.21 My

analysis is limited to evaluating the claim for potential shortfall in principal and interest

payments on the Debtor-sponsored wrapped bonds.

106. As a result, the first step in my analysis of Ambac’s damages was to

estimate Ambac’s potential lifetime payments to cover shortfalls in principal and interest

payments to the wrapped bonds in the trusts wrapped by Ambac.

21 In addition, the Ambac settlement resolves claims with respect to non-Debtor-sponsored trusts wrapped by Ambac, for which Ambac has asserted claims against the Debtors based on the Debtors’ servicing. My analysis of the Ambac settlement does not address those additional claims. As noted above, my analysis of the non-Debtor-sponsored trusts is ongoing.

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1. Ambac’s Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Shortfall Exposure.

107. I estimated Ambac’s aggregate lifetime shortfall exposure using the same

Illumination and Intex cash flow models discussed above to simulate the cash flows to each

tranche of bonds.

108. First, I collected the data concerning actual shortfalls to the wrapped

bonds in each trust insured by Ambac as of September 2013. Second, I forecasted the potential

lifetime shortfall for the specific tranches of bonds wrapped by Ambac, using the same low range

and high range assumptions that I used to calculate trust losses set forth above.

109. The actual shortfalls, and the low range and high range forecasted

remaining lifetime shortfalls to bonds wrapped by Ambac are:

Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

2004‐KS4  $2.2  $5.6  $6.5 

2004‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

2004‐RS5  $1.3  $8.1  $9.3 

2004‐RS9  $1.8  $2.3  $2.7 

2006‐QH1  $49.8  $2.4  $3.9 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2005‐HE3  $98.0  $4.6  $9.9 

RAMP 1999‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

RAMP 2002‐RZ4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS9  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2002‐KS1  $1.9  $8.6  $9.7 

RASC 2002‐KS4  $12.0  $0.4  $0.6 

RASC 2002‐KS6  $5.5  $1.2  $1.2 

RASC 2002‐KS8  $8.3  $10.4  $11.1 

RASC 2003‐KS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS9  $0.0  $1.2  $2.1 

RFMSII 1999‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HL1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

RFMSII 2002‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $180.8  $44.8  $57.0 

110. Third, I added the actual bond shortfalls to the forecasted potential

shortfalls, to determine the total potential lifetime shortfalls to the wrapped bonds. The

calculations of the low range and the high range total potential lifetime shortfalls for the bonds

wrapped by Ambac are:

LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

2004‐KS4  $2.2                     

$5.6                     

$7.8 

2004‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

2004‐RS5  $1.3  $8.1  $9.4 

2004‐RS9  $1.8  $2.3  $4.0 

2006‐QH1  $49.8  $2.4  $52.3 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2005‐HE3  $98.0  $4.6  $102.6 

RAMP 1999‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RAMP 2002‐RZ4  $0.0                                         

$0.0                                         

$0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS9  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2002‐KS1  $1.9  $8.6  $10.5 

RASC 2002‐KS4  $12.0  $0.4  $12.3 

RASC 2002‐KS6  $5.5  $1.2  $6.7 

RASC 2002‐KS8  $8.3  $10.4  $18.7 

RASC 2003‐KS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS9  $0.0  $1.2  $1.2 

RFMSII 1999‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HL1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RFMSII 2001‐HS2  $0.0        

$0.0        

$0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $180.8  $44.8  $225.6 

HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

2004‐KS4  $2.2                         

$6.5                         

$8.7 

2004‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

2004‐RS5  $1.3  $9.3  $10.6 

2004‐RS9  $1.8  $2.7  $4.4 

2006‐QH1  $49.8  $3.9  $53.7 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2001‐HLTV2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2002‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2005‐HE3  $98.0  $9.9  $107.9 

RAMP 1999‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2001‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2002‐RZ4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RP2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RAMP 2003‐RS2  $0.0                                         

$0.0                                         

$0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS7  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RS9  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RAMP 2003‐RZ5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2002‐KS1  $1.9  $9.7  $11.6 

RASC 2002‐KS4  $12.0  $0.6  $12.6 

RASC 2002‐KS6  $5.5  $1.2  $6.7 

RASC 2002‐KS8  $8.3  $11.1  $19.4 

RASC 2003‐KS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RASC 2003‐KS9  $0.0  $2.1  $2.1 

RFMSII 1999‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI6  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 1999‐HI8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HI5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2000‐HL1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HI4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2001‐HS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RFMSII 2003‐HI3  $0.0    

$0.0    

$0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $180.8  $57.0  $237.8 

111. As reflected in the charts above, the aggregate total potential lifetime

shortfall to the bonds wrapped by Ambac ranges from $225.6 million to $237.8 million, which

does not include amounts for indemnification of fees, expenses and interest.

2. Estimating Potential Liability Accounting for Settlement

112. The second step in my analysis was to account for potential settlement.

As discussed above, based on a review of recent monoline settlements, I observed that monoline

claims had recently settled for between 80% and 120% of the wrapped bond shortfalls.

113. I understand that in addition to the shortfall in principal or interest

payments, Ambac asserts claims against the Debtors for interest and indemnification of

expenses. However, I have not reviewed the basis for those additional claimed amounts and my

analysis of Ambac’s claims is limited to evaluating potential liability with respect to the shortfall

to the wrapped bonds. I determined that settlement of the bond shortfall claims might range

from 80% to 100% of potential lifetime shortfalls. However, I recognize that monoline claims

have settled for amounts in excess of the bond shortfalls in certain circumstances.

114. To establish the high end of my range of potential liability with respect to

the bond shortfalls, I used 100% of the potential lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my

higher range assumptions. For the lower end of my range, I started with 100% of the potential

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lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my lower range assumptions, and then discounted that

number to 80%. The calculations are:

 

Total Bond Shortfall 

   X 

Settlement Factor 

   = 

Range of Debtors’ Potential Liability to 

Ambac 

Low Range 

High Range 

Low Range 

High Range 

Lower Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$225.6  

80%  ‐  

$180.5  $237.8 Higher Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$237.8  ‐  100% 

D. Opinions Regarding the Assured Settlement.

115. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by Assured relating to three

Debtor-sponsored RMBS trusts for which Assured provided insurance, promising to pay

investors to compensate for any shortfall in principal or interest payments in the wrapped bonds.

My analysis is limited to evaluating the claim for potential shortfall in principal and interest

payments on the Debtor-sponsored wrapped bonds. 22

116. As a result, the first step in my analysis of Assured’s damages was to

estimate Assured’s potential lifetime payments to cover shortfalls in principal and interest

payments to the wrapped bonds in the trusts wrapped by Assured.

1. Assured’s Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Shortfall Exposure.

117. I estimated Assured’s aggregate lifetime shortfall exposure using the same

Illumination and Intex cash flow models discussed above to simulate the cash flows to each

tranche of bonds.

22 I understand that Assured asserted servicing claims with respect to additional Debtor-sponsored trusts. I have not analyzed those claims.

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118. First, I collected the data concerning actual shortfalls to the wrapped

bonds in each trust insured by Assured as of September 2013. Second, I forecasted the potential

lifetime shortfall for the specific tranches of bonds wrapped by Assured, using the same low

range and high range assumptions that I used to calculate trust losses set forth above.

119. The actual shortfalls, and the low range and high range forecasted

remaining lifetime shortfalls to bonds wrapped by Assured are:

Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

GMACM 2004‐HE3  $18.7  $2.7  $6.6 

HEL 2006‐HSA3  $51.8  $0.4  $0.5 

RFMSI 2005‐S5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $70.5  $3.1  $7.1 

120. Third, I added the actual bond shortfalls to the forecasted potential

shortfalls, to determine the total potential lifetime shortfalls to the wrapped bonds. The

calculations of the low range and the high range total potential lifetime shortfalls for the bonds

wrapped by Assured are:

LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMACM 2004‐HE3  $18.7    $2.7    $21.4 

HEL 2006‐HSA3  $51.8    $0.4    $52.2 

RFMSI 2005‐S5  $0.0    $0.0    $0.0 

Total  $70.5    $3.1    $73.6 

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HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMACM 2004‐HE3  $18.7    $6.6    $25.3 

HEL 2006‐HSA3  $51.8    $0.5    $52.3 

RFMSI 2005‐S5  $0.0    $0.0    $0.0 

Total  $70.5    $7.1    $77.6 

121. As reflected in the charts above, the aggregate total potential lifetime

shortfall to the bonds wrapped by Assured ranges from $73.6 million to $77.6 million, which

does not include amounts for indemnification of fees, expenses and interest.

2. Estimating Potential Liability Accounting for Settlement

122. The second step in my analysis was to account for potential settlement.

As discussed above, based on a review of recent monoline settlements, I observed that monoline

claims had recently settled for between 80% and 120% of the wrapped bond shortfalls.

123. I understand that in addition to the shortfall in principal or interest

payments, Assured asserts claims against the Debtors for interest and indemnification of

expenses. However, I have not reviewed the basis for those additional claimed amounts and my

analysis of Assured’s claims is limited to evaluating potential liability with respect to the

shortfall to the wrapped bonds. I determined that settlement of the bond shortfall claims might

range from 80% to 100% of potential lifetime shortfalls. However, I recognize that monoline

claims have settled for amounts in excess of the bond shortfalls in certain circumstances.

124. To establish the high end of my range of potential liability with respect to

the bond shortfalls, I used 100% of the potential lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my

higher range assumptions. For the lower end of my range, I started with 100% of the potential

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lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my lower range assumptions, and then discounted that

number to 80%. The calculations are:

 

Total Bond Shortfall (millions) 

   X 

Settlement Factor 

   = 

Range of Debtors’ Potential Liability to Assured (millions) 

Low Range 

High Range 

Low Range 

High Range 

Lower Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$73.6  80%  ‐ $58.9  $77.6 

Higher Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$77.6  ‐  100% 

E. Opinions Regarding the FGIC Settlement.

125. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by FGIC relating to 47 Debtor-

sponsored RMBS trusts for which FGIC provided insurance, promising to pay investors to

compensate for any shortfall in principal or interest payments in the wrapped bonds. My

analysis evaluates the claim for potential shortfall in principal and interest payments on the

Debtor-sponsored wrapped bonds.

126. I understand that FGIC commuted its policies and therefore has no future

exposure with respect to the Debtor-sponsored trusts. My analysis estimates the potential

exposure to FGIC in the absence of a settlement and commutation.23 As a result, the first step in

my analysis was to estimate FGIC’s potential exposure in the absence of the FGIC settlement

and commutation, starting with FGIC’s potential lifetime payments to cover shortfalls in

principal and interest payments to the wrapped bonds in those two trusts.

23 I understand that, as part of the FGIC settlement agreement, the trustees already released certain claims with respect to the FGIC-wrapped trusts, and the value of those releases was considered in the context of evaluating the benefits of settlement. For purposes of this Report, in connection with evaluation of the FGIC allowed claims, I limit my analysis to the Debtors’ potential liability to FGIC based on the lifetime estimated shortfall to FGIC-wrapped bonds.

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1. FGIC’s Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Shortfall Exposure.

127. I estimated FGIC’s aggregate lifetime shortfall exposure using the same

Illumination and Intex cash flow models discussed above to simulate the cash flows to each

tranche of bonds.

128. First, I collected the data concerning actual shortfalls to the wrapped

bonds in each trust insured by FGIC as of September 2013. Second, I forecasted the potential

lifetime shortfall for the specific tranches of bonds wrapped by FGIC, using the same low range

and high range assumptions that I used to calculate trust losses set forth above.

129. The actual shortfalls, and the low range and high range forecasted

remaining lifetime shortfalls to bonds wrapped by FGIC are:

Trust 

Actual Wrapped Bond 

Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

GMACM 2005‐HE2  $3.2  $2.0  $2.7  

GMACM 2006‐HE1  $111.0  $45.2  $75.1  

GMACM 2006‐HE2  $62.8  $8.7  $9.6  

GMACM 2006‐HE3  $105.0  $2.0  $3.7  

GMACM 2006‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2007‐HE2  $161.0  $7.0  $9.2  

GMACM 2001‐HE3  $1.2  $0.0  $0.2  

GMACM 2001‐HE2  $1.3  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2002‐HE1  $0.0  $0.3  $1.0  

GMACM 2002‐HE4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2003‐HE1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2003‐HE2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2004‐HE1  $1.6  $0.0  $5.4  

GMACM 2004‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2005‐HE1  $37.7  $3.3  $8.7  

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

GMACM 2004‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2005‐HS1  $13.8  $48.5  $49.5  

RFMSII 2005‐HS2  $24.9  $58.6  $59.5  

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1  $32.7  $38.9  $39.2  

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Trust Actual 

Wrapped Bond Losses  

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

RFMSII Trust 2006‐HSA2  $51.1  $71.2  $76.4  

RFMSII 2006‐HI2  $0.0  $31.5  $32.4  

RFMSII 2006‐HI3  $0.0  $12.3  $13.0  

RFMSII 2006‐HI4  $7.3  $43.2  $44.6  

RFMSII 2006‐HI5  $1.2  $47.9  $49.2  

RFMSII 2007‐HI1  $0.0  $54.0  $55.6  

RAMP 2004‐RS7   $8.6  $17.1  $18.5  

RAMP 2004‐RZ2   $4.8  $7.1  $7.5  

RAMP 2005‐EFC7   $38.8  $11.9  $14.6  

RAMP 2005‐NC1   $62.9  $17.0  $19.6  

RAMP 2005‐RS9   $110.5  $14.5  $16.5  

RASC 2001‐KS1   $0.0  $2.8  $3.4  

RASC 2004‐KS7   $4.2  $8.0  $8.8  

RASC 2004‐KS9   $4.0  $3.0  $3.6  

RASC 2005‐EMX5   $39.5  $4.9  $5.9  

RASC 2007‐EMX1   $45.0  $55.7  $61.2  

RFMSII 2003‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2005‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2002‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2003‐HS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2004‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2004‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2004‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSII 2004‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSI 2005‐S2   $0.0  $0.0  $0.0  

RFMSI 2005‐S7   $1.1  $3.0  $3.2  

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1   $74.9  $6.1  $6.7  

Total  $1,009.9  $625.8  $704.6  

130. Third, I added the actual bond shortfalls to the forecasted potential

shortfalls, to determine the total potential lifetime shortfalls to the wrapped bonds. The

calculations of the low range and the high range total potential lifetime shortfalls for the bonds

wrapped by FGIC are:

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LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMACM 2005‐HE2  $3.2                                          

$2.0                                          

$5.2 

GMACM 2006‐HE1  $111.0  $45.2  $156.2 

GMACM 2006‐HE2  $62.8  $8.7  $71.4 

GMACM 2006‐HE3  $105.0  $2.0  $107.1 

GMACM 2006‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2007‐HE2  $161.0  $7.0  $168.1 

GMACM 2001‐HE3  $1.2  $0.0  $1.2 

GMACM 2001‐HE2  $1.3  $0.0  $1.3 

GMACM 2002‐HE1  $0.0  $0.3  $0.4 

GMACM 2002‐HE4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2003‐HE1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2003‐HE2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2004‐HE1  $1.6  $0.0  $1.6 

GMACM 2004‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2005‐HE1  $37.7  $3.3  $41.0 

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2004‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2005‐HS1  $13.8  $48.5  $62.3 

RFMSII 2005‐HS2  $24.9  $58.6  $83.4 

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1  $32.7  $38.9  $71.6 

RFMSII Trust 2006‐HSA2 

$51.1  $71.2  $122.3 

RFMSII 2006‐HI2  $0.0  $31.5  $31.5 

RFMSII 2006‐HI3  $0.0  $12.3  $12.3 

RFMSII 2006‐HI4  $7.3  $43.2  $50.5 

RFMSII 2006‐HI5  $1.2  $47.9  $49.1 

RFMSII 2007‐HI1  $0.0  $54.0  $54.0 

RAMP 2004‐RS7   $8.6  $17.1  $25.7 

RAMP 2004‐RZ2   $4.8  $7.1  $11.9 

RAMP 2005‐EFC7   $38.8  $11.9  $50.6 

RAMP 2005‐NC1   $62.9  $17.0  $79.8 

RAMP 2005‐RS9   $110.5  $14.5  $125.0 

RASC 2001‐KS1   $0.0  $2.8  $2.8 

RASC 2004‐KS7   $4.2  $8.0  $12.2 

RASC 2004‐KS9   $4.0  $3.0  $7.0 

RASC 2005‐EMX5   $39.5  $4.9  $44.4 

RASC 2007‐EMX1   $45.0  $55.7  $100.8 

RFMSII 2003‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2005‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RFMSII 2002‐HS3  $0.0          

$0.0          

$0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSI 2005‐S2   $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSI 2005‐S7   $1.1  $3.0  $4.1 

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1   $74.9  $6.1  $81.0 

Total  $1,009.9  $625.8  $1,635.7 

HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

+

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMACM 2005‐HE2  $3.2                     

$2.7                     

$5.8 

GMACM 2006‐HE1  $111.0  $75.1  $186.1 

GMACM 2006‐HE2  $62.8  $9.6  $72.4 

GMACM 2006‐HE3  $105.0  $3.7  $108.7 

GMACM 2006‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2007‐HE2  $161.0  $9.2  $170.3 

GMACM 2001‐HE3  $1.2  $0.2  $1.3 

GMACM 2001‐HE2  $1.3  $0.0  $1.3 

GMACM 2002‐HE1  $0.0  $1.0  $1.0 

GMACM 2002‐HE4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2003‐HE1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2003‐HE2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2004‐HE1  $1.6  $5.4  $7.0 

GMACM 2004‐HE5  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2005‐HE1  $37.7  $8.7  $46.4 

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMACM 2004‐HLTV1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2005‐HS1  $13.8  $49.5  $63.3 

RFMSII 2005‐HS2  $24.9  $59.5  $84.3 

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HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

+

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1  $32.7                               

$39.2                               

$71.8 

RFMSII Trust 2006‐HSA2  $51.1  $76.4  $127.5 

RFMSII 2006‐HI2  $0.0  $32.4  $32.4 

RFMSII 2006‐HI3  $0.0  $13.0  $13.0 

RFMSII 2006‐HI4  $7.3  $44.6  $51.9 

RFMSII 2006‐HI5  $1.2  $49.2  $50.4 

RFMSII 2007‐HI1  $0.0  $55.6  $55.6 

RAMP 2004‐RS7   $8.6  $18.5  $27.1 

RAMP 2004‐RZ2   $4.8  $7.5  $12.3 

RAMP 2005‐EFC7   $38.8  $14.6  $53.4 

RAMP 2005‐NC1   $62.9  $19.6  $82.5 

RAMP 2005‐RS9   $110.5  $16.5  $127.0 

RASC 2001‐KS1   $0.0  $3.4  $3.4 

RASC 2004‐KS7   $4.2  $8.8  $13.1 

RASC 2004‐KS9   $4.0  $3.6  $7.6 

RASC 2005‐EMX5   $39.5  $5.9  $45.4 

RASC 2007‐EMX1   $45.0  $61.2  $106.3 

RFMSII 2003‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2005‐HI1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2002‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HI2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HI3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2004‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSI 2005‐S2   $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSI 2005‐S7   $1.1  $3.2  $4.3 

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1   $74.9  $6.7  $81.6 

Total  $1,009.9  $704.6  $1,714.5 

131. As reflected in the charts above, the aggregate total potential lifetime

shortfall to the bonds wrapped by FGIC ranges from $1.64 billion to $1.71 billion, which does

not include amounts for indemnification of fees, expenses and interest.

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2. Estimating Potential Liability Accounting for Settlement

132. The second step in my analysis was to account for potential settlement.

As discussed above, based on a review of recent monoline settlements, I observed that monoline

claims had recently settled for between 80% and 120% of the wrapped bond shortfalls.

133. I understand that in addition to the shortfall in principal or interest

payments, FGIC asserts claims against the Debtors for interest and indemnification of expenses.

However, I have not reviewed the basis for those additional claimed amounts and my analysis of

FGIC’s claims is limited to evaluating potential liability with respect to the shortfall to the

wrapped bonds. I determined that settlement of the bond shortfall claims might range from 80%

to 100% of potential lifetime shortfalls. However, I recognize that monoline claims have settled

for amounts in excess of the bond shortfalls in certain circumstances.

134. To establish the high end of my range of potential liability with respect to

the bond shortfalls, I used 100% of the potential lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my

higher range assumptions. For the lower end of my range, I started with the 100% of the

potential liability with respect to the Bond shortfalls is 100% of the potential lifetime shortfall to

the bonds based on my lower range assumptions, and then discounted that number to 80%. The

calculations are:

 

Total Bond Shortfall (millions) 

   X 

Settlement Factor 

   = 

Range of Debtors’ Potential Liability to 

FGIC (millions) 

Low Range 

High Range 

Low Range 

High Range 

Lower Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$1,635.7  

80%  ‐  

$1,308.6  $1,714.5 Higher Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$1,714.5  ‐  100% 

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F. Opinions Regarding the MBIA Settlement.

135. The Plan seeks to resolve claims asserted by MBIA relating to 24 Debtor-

sponsored RMBS trusts for which MBIA provided insurance, promising to pay investors to

compensate for any shortfall in principal or interest payments in the wrapped bonds.24

136. As a result, the first step in my analysis of MBIA’s damages was to

estimate MBIA’s potential lifetime payments to cover shortfalls in principal and interest

payments to the holders of the wrapped bonds in those 24 trusts.

1. MBIA’s Estimated Aggregate Lifetime Shortfall Exposure.

137. I estimated MBIA’s aggregate lifetime shortfall exposure using the same

Illumination and Intex cash flow models discussed above to simulate the cash flows to the

holders of each tranche of bonds.

138. First, I collected the data concerning actual shortfalls to the wrapped

bonds in each trust insured by MBIA as of September 2013. Second, I forecasted the potential

lifetime shortfall for the specific tranches of bonds wrapped by MBIA, using the same low range

and high range assumptions that I used to calculate trust losses set forth above.

139. The actual shortfalls, and the low range and high range forecasted

remaining lifetime shortfalls to bonds wrapped by MBIA are:

Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

GMAC 2000‐HE2  $3.1  $0.2  $0.3 

GMAC 2000‐HE4  $2.2  $0.6  $0.8 

GMAC 2002‐HE3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

24 In addition, the MBIA settlement resolves claims with respect to non-Debtor- sponsored trusts wrapped by MBIA. My analysis of the MBIA settlement does not address those additional claims. As noted above, my analysis of the non-Debtor sponsored trusts is ongoing.

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Trust Actual Wrapped Bond Losses  (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond Shortfall  

(in millions) 

Lower Range  Higher Range 

GMAC 2003‐GH1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004 Variable  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐HE4  $36.1  $3.4  $8.3 

GMAC 2004‐J1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐J2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2006‐HE4  $235.6  $13.9  $30.8 

GMAC 2007‐HE1  $157.7  $6.4  $8.1 

RALI 2002‐QS15  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S13  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2004‐HS2  $1.7  $0.7  $0.7 

RFC 2004‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2006‐HSA4  $110.5  $3.0  $3.5 

RFC 2006‐HSA5  $107.9  $5.9  $6.4 

RFC 2007‐HSA1  $235.5  $5.6  $7.9 

RFC 2007‐HSA2  $778.3  $24.7  $27.3 

RFC 2007‐HSA3  $429.6  $25.9  $28.1 

RFMSI 2004‐SR1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $2,098.2  $90.3  $122.0 

140. Third, I added the actual bond shortfalls to the forecasted potential

shortfalls, to determine the total potential lifetime shortfalls to the wrapped bonds. The

calculations of the low range and the high range total potential lifetime shortfalls for the bonds

wrapped by MBIA are:

LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMAC 2000‐HE2  $3.1     

$0.2     

$3.3 

GMAC 2000‐HE4  $2.2  $0.6  $2.8 

GMAC 2002‐HE3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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LOWER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMAC 2003‐GH1  $0.0                   

$0.0                      

$0.0 

GMAC 2004 Variable  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐HE4  $36.1  $3.4  $39.5 

GMAC 2004‐J1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐J2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2006‐HE4  $235.6  $13.9  $249.5 

GMAC 2007‐HE1  $157.7  $6.4  $164.1 

RALI 2002‐QS15  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S13  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2004‐HS2  $1.7  $0.7  $2.4 

RFC 2004‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2006‐HSA4  $110.5  $3.0  $113.5 

RFC 2006‐HSA5  $107.9  $5.9  $113.8 

RFC 2007‐HSA1  $235.5  $5.6  $241.2 

RFC 2007‐HSA2  $778.3  $24.7  $802.9 

RFC 2007‐HSA3  $429.6  $25.9  $455.5 

RFMSI 2004‐SR1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $2,098.2  $90.3  $2,188.5 

HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMAC 2000‐HE2  $3.1    $0.3          

$3.4 

GMAC 2000‐HE4  $2.2  $0.8  $2.9 

GMAC 2002‐HE3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2003‐GH1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004 Variable  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐HE4  $36.1  $8.3  $44.4 

GMAC 2004‐J1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

GMAC 2004‐J2  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

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HIGHER RANGE 

Trust 

Actual Wrapped 

Bond Losses (in millions) 

Forecasted Remaining Lifetime Wrapped Bond 

Shortfall  (in millions) 

Total Potential Lifetime 

Wrapped Bond Shortfall 

GMAC 2006‐HE4  $235.6  $30.8         

$266.4 

GMAC 2007‐HE1  $157.7  $8.1  $165.8 

RALI 2002‐QS15  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐QS8  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S13  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RALI 2003‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2004‐HS2  $1.7  $0.7  $2.4 

RFC 2004‐S4  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFC 2006‐HSA4  $110.5  $3.5  $114.0 

RFC 2006‐HSA5  $107.9  $6.4  $114.2 

RFC 2007‐HSA1  $235.5  $7.9  $243.4 

RFC 2007‐HSA2  $778.3  $27.3  $805.5 

RFC 2007‐HSA3  $429.6  $28.1  $457.7 

RFMSI 2004‐SR1  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

RFMSII 2003‐HS3  $0.0  $0.0  $0.0 

Total  $2,098.2  $122.0  $2,220.2 

141. As reflected in the charts above, the aggregate total potential lifetime

shortfall to the bonds wrapped by MBIA ranges from $2.19 billion to $2.22 billion, which does

not include amounts for indemnification of fees, expenses and interest.

2. Estimating Potential Liability Accounting for Settlement

142. The second step in my analysis was to account for potential settlement.

As discussed above, based on a review of recent monoline settlements, I observed that monoline

claims had recently settled for between 80% and 120% of the wrapped Bond shortfalls.

143. I understand that in addition to the shortfall in principal or interest

payments, MBIA asserts claims against the Debtors for interest and indemnification of expenses.

However, I have not reviewed the basis for those additional claimed amounts and my analysis of

MBIA’s claims is limited to evaluating potential liability with respect to the shortfall to the

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wrapped bonds. I determined that settlement of the bond shortfall claims might range from 80%

to 100% of potential lifetime shortfalls. However, I recognize that monoline claims have settled

for amounts in excess of the bond shortfalls in certain circumstances.

144. To establish the high end of my range of potential liability with respect to

the bond shortfalls, I used 100% of the potential lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my

higher range assumptions. For the lower end of my range, I started with 100% of the potential

lifetime shortfall to the bonds based on my lower range assumptions, and then discounted that

number to 80%. The calculations are:

 

Total Bond Shortfall (millions) 

   X 

Settlement Factor 

   = 

Range of Debtors’ Potential Liability to MBIA (millions) 

Low Range 

High Range 

Low Range 

High Range 

Lower Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$2,188.5  

80%  ‐  

1,750.8  $2,220.2 Higher Range Total Potential Shortfall 

$2,220.2  ‐  100% 

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CONCLUSION

145. In summary, for this Report I utilized a trust level cash flow model process

regularly used by market participants and financial institutions to estimate the Debtors’ potential

exposure to the Debtor-sponsored trusts based on collateral losses to the trusts. I used the same

model to estimate potential exposure to Ambac, Assured, FGIC, and MBIA for shortfalls on

wrapped bonds in Debtor-sponsored trusts. I also estimated the Debtors’ potential exposure for

loans sold by the Debtors and included non-Debtor-sponsored trusts, based on the performance

of the similar loans in the Debtor-sponsored trusts. Accordingly, the methodologies that I used

in this Report are generally accepted in the industry as a sound means of estimating repurchase

exposure. Based on my analysis described above, it is my opinion that:

(a) a reasonable range of potential exposure to the trusts included in

the RBMS Settlement is $7.38 billion to $8.6 billion;

(b) a reasonable range of potential exposure to Ambac is $180.5

million to $237.8 million;

(c) a reasonable range of potential exposure to Assured is $58.9

million to $77.6 million;

(d) a reasonable range of potential exposure to FGIC is $1.3 billion to

$1.7 billon; and

(e) a reasonable range of potential exposure to MBIA is $1.75 billion

to $2.22 billion.

Dated: October 18, 2013

________________

Frank Sillman

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ANNEX A

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Curriculum Vitae of Frank Sillman

Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 Office Phone (310) 545-4548 Email: [email protected]

Summary of qualifications

27 years of senior executive management experience in sales, marketing, operations,

secondary marketing, loan securitization, risk mitigation and consulting. This included managing four multi-billion dollar, nationwide lending divisions and building innovative, de novo operating divisions. My responsibilities also included managing Secondary Marketing, Treasury, IT systems design/implementation, Accounting and Forecasting.

Experience in building and managing scalable, profitable and low cost businesses.

Helped design and implement risk based management models, risk mitigation strategies and integrated imaging systems.

Hired and developed a strong team of senior sales, marketing, operational, finance and risk management executives.

Professional experience

Fortace LLC 2008 to Present Los Angeles, CA

Managing Partner, Re-Underwriting & Consulting practice Co-Founded and actively manages the leading Residential Mortgage Re-Underwriting & Consulting firm that assists National banks, leading law firms and nationwide Mortgage Banking firms in (1) managing risks associated with the origination and servicing of residential mortgage loans and (2) the development and implementation of cost management programs & processes. We developed a proprietary workflow system (FAS) that allows us to securely investigate, document and provide supporting documentation to help our clients reduce their RMBS and mortgage related risk exposure, mitigate potential losses and exceed their internal ROI objectives. Additionally we created a Cost Management and Accountability program that allowed our customers to dramatically cut costs and efficiently manage those costs on an ongoing basis.

IMB Bank 1998 to 2008 Pasadena, CA

Executive Vice President, Mortgage Banking Group Responsible for the Mortgage Banking businesses for a top ten nationwide residential mortgage originator, with peak mortgage production of $100 Billion in 2006. Built and managed our Retail, Wholesale, Correspondent and Warehouse Lending businesses. This included the recruiting and retention of our nationwide sales and sales management organization, development of a highly automated Marketing team that was leveraged over all four divisions and a nationwide, low cost, decentralized operational infrastructure including processing, underwriting, funding and post closing. We originated and sold via loan securitizations and whole loan sales Agency, FHA, Private Label, Heloc, and Jumbo residential loan production. I also helped design and implement an industry leading POS pricing, ratelock, automated underwriting and imaging platform that improved customer satisfaction, improved operational efficiencies, enhanced risk mitigation and lowered costs.

TCM/AHC Mortgage 1992-1998 Los Angeles, CA

Senior Vice President, Loan Production and Secondary Marketing Responsible for retail mortgage banking loan production and secondary marketing for a medium size mortgage banker. Grew the mortgage banking production volumes from scratch in 1992 to $100 million plus per month. I helped grow the business from an

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Curriculum Vitae of Frank Sillman

Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 Office Phone (310) 545-4548 Email: [email protected]

unprofitable Mortgage Brokerage model to a profitable Mortgage Banking model while building the operation infrastructure to properly manage the compliance, underwriting, closing and sales of closed loans into the secondary market.

Shearson Lehman Mortgage 1986-1992 Newport Beach, Ca

Senior Vice President, Secondary Marketing, Treasury and Warehouse Lending Managed all aspects of our Secondary Marketing activities including hedging, loan sales. Securitization and pricing. I managed our Treasury department which including daily Treasury operations, bank and commercial paper financing arrangements and applicable accounting. I also oversaw our $500,000,000 Warehouse Lending business.

Education University of California, San Diego - Bachelor of Arts

Expert Witness Experience

Litigation Consulting & Expert Witness services in following areas: (1) Mortgage

Origination process and controls, (2) Client Underwriting Guidelines, (3) Quality Control processes, (4) Residential Loan Securitization including Origination and Servicing Securitization Representations & Warranties.

Fact Witness Deposition strategy and preparation

Contributory Loss Analysis for Securitization Representation and Warranty losses

Expert Report - Residential Capital, LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – 9019 1st Expert Declaration on $8.6 billion RMBS Trust Settlement Agreement filed 6/11/12 - UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK - Case No. 12-12020 (MG)

Expert Report - Residential Capital, LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – 9019 Supplemental Expert Declaration on $8.6 billion RMBS Trust Settlement Agreement filed 9/28/12 - UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK - Case No. 12-12020 (MG)

Expert Report - Residential Capital, LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – 9019 Expert Reply Declaration on RMBS Trust Settlement Agreement filed 01/15/13 - UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK - Case No. 12-12020 (MG)

Expert Report - Residential Capital, LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – 9019 Supplemental Declaration on RMBS Trust Settlement Agreement filed 02/19/13 - UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK - Case No. 12-12020 (MG)

Expert Deposition Testimony - Residential Capital, LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy – RMBS Trust Settlement Agreement Expert Deposition given 11/20/12 (7 hours 20 minutes) - UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK - Case No. 12-12020 (MG)

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ANNEX B

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Annex B

Documents Relied On by Frank Sillman

Document Title, Bates Numbers Document Date

Filings in These Chapter 11 Proceedings

Debtor’s Application for an Order Authorizing Employment and July 6, 2012 Retention of Fortace LLC as Consultant to the Debtors Nunc Pro Tunc (Docket No. 704) Joint Chapter 11 Plan Proposed by Residential Capital, LLC, et al. July 3, 2013 (Docket No. 4153) Plan Schedules 3G and 4G, filed in In re Residential Capital, LLC, et al. August 23, 2013 (Docket No. 4819-2) Disclosure Statement for the Joint Chapter 11 Plan Proposed By August 23, 2013 Residential Capital, LLC, et al. and the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, Exhibit 9, “Methodology for Calculation of Recognized Claims,” (Docket No. 4819-3) Other Court Papers

Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. v. UBS Real Estate Securities, Inc., Case No. 12-01579 (HB) (JCF), (S.D.N.Y.) Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. v. Flagstar Bank, FSB, et al., Case No. 11-2375 (JSR), (S.D.N.Y.) Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. v. Flagstar Bank, 11-cv-2375 (JSR), 2013 U.S. Dist. Lexis 16682 (S.D.N.Y.) MBIA Insurance Corp.v. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., Bank of America Corp., Index No. 602825/2008 (Supreme Court of New York) MBIA Insurance Corp.v. Flagstar ABS, LLC et al., Index No. 13-0262 (S.D.N.Y) Syncora Guarantee Inc.v. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., Bank of America Corp., Index No. 650042/2009 (Supreme Court of New York) In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Case No. 08-13555 (JMP), Docket January 12, 2012 No. 24255, Declaration of Zachary Trumpp in Support of Debtors’ Motion Pursuant to Section 8.4 of the Modified Third Amended Joint Chapter 11 Plan

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Articles, Books, and Other Documents

BasePoint Analytics LLC, White Paper, “Early Payment Default – 2007 Links to Fraud and Impact on Mortgage Lenders and Investment Banks” Federal Housing Finance Agency Office of Inspector General, “Evaluation September 27, 2011 of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Oversight of Freddie Mac’s Repurchase Settlement with Bank of America,” Evaluation Report No. EVL-2011-006 Gamaitoni, Chris, CompassPoint Research & Trading, LLC, “Mortgage August 17, 2010 Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim – Quantifying the Risks” Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, Analyzing GSE Mortgage 2006-2008 Buyback Demands: Lender Impact Varies Significantly – GSE Buyback Demand Activity Lin, Brian, RRMS Advisors, Opinion Concerning Contemplated Settlement June 7, 2011 Amount for 530 Trusts Performance Summary Reports by Issue Year for RALI QA Series ARM, RALI QH Series ARM, RALI QO Series ARM, RALI QS Series 15-Yr FRM, RALI QS Series 30-Yr FRM, RAMP RS Series ARM, RAMP RS Series FRM, RAMP RZ Series ARM, RAMP RZ Series FRM, RASC KS Series ARM, RASC KS Series FRM, RFMSI S Series 15-Yr FRM, RFMSI S Series 30-Yr FRM, RFMSI SA Series ARM, RFMSII HI Series 125 CLTV, RFMSII HS Series CES, RFMSII HS Series HELOC, RFMSII HSA Series CES, RFMSII HSA Series HELOC

Data Sources

AUS Loan Approval Formats

CoreLogic Loan Performance

Deep Skin Search

GMAC RGC Client Guide Bulletins

GMAC RFC Client Guides

Illumination

Intex Solutions, Inc.

MERS Link Report

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

All Annexes to this Report, to the extent not listed above

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ANNEX C

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

GMACM 2004‐AR1 71,130,200                       4,677,779                   2,509,952                     7,187,731                   1.64% 57.80% 19.33% 4,677,779                  3,111,182                  7,788,961                      1.65% 68.16% 18.22%

GMACM 2004‐AR2 72,769,100                       5,681,241                   265,791                        5,947,032                   0.59% 11.09% 12.73% 5,681,241                  425,711                     6,106,952                      0.69% 14.70% 12.10%

GMACM 2004‐GH1 43,058,300                       4,284,730                   1,497,660                     5,782,390                   1.08% 46.91% 5.74% 4,284,730                  1,639,062                  5,923,792                      1.12% 48.51% 5.34%

RFMSII 2004‐HI1 17,692,700                       27,074,938                 1,132,846                     28,207,784                   3.56% 110.97% 10.23% 27,074,938                1,303,245                  28,378,183                   3.75% 110.95% 9.18%

GMACM 2004‐J1 41,449,700                       1,069,794                   762,025                        1,831,818                   0.44% 57.47% 7.41% 1,069,794                  820,586                     1,890,380                      0.47% 56.95% 6.92%

GMACM 2004‐J2 51,868,300                       1,750,506                   823,787                        2,574,292                   0.51% 47.12% 8.92% 1,750,506                  886,027                     2,636,533                      0.53% 47.19% 8.29%

GMACM 2004‐J3 47,476,800                       776,404                      1,330,583                     2,106,987                   0.73% 60.14% 9.19% 776,404                     1,393,284                  2,169,687                      0.74% 60.03% 8.47%

GMACM 2004‐J4 80,562,000                       2,828,046                   1,385,929                     4,213,975                   0.56% 50.04% 9.84% 2,828,046                  1,448,287                  4,276,333                      0.56% 50.05% 9.16%

GMACM 2004‐J5 74,924,500                       3,033,075                   2,551,886                     5,584,960                   1.92% 32.90% 11.62% 3,033,075                  2,703,654                  5,736,728                      1.92% 33.34% 10.81%

GMACM 2004‐J6 54,200,200                       1,487,621                   787,023                        2,274,644                   0.63% 94.18% 8.79% 1,487,621                  796,223                     2,283,844                      0.61% 95.04% 8.29%

RAMP 2004‐KR1 73,407,300                       133,258,572               2,334,501                     135,593,073                 1.53% 61.65% 4.27% 133,258,572              2,654,123                  135,912,695                 1.57% 62.42% 3.90%

RAMP 2004‐KR2 57,072,500                       100,636,556               5,243,125                     105,879,681                 5.11% 61.34% 3.36% 100,636,556              6,969,134                  107,605,690                 5.45% 63.50% 3.03%

RASC 2004‐KS1 64,134,100                       40,554,112                 6,491,589                     47,045,701                   1.66% 80.42% 4.61% 40,554,112                6,890,004                  47,444,116                   1.71% 81.74% 4.27%

RASC 2004‐KS10 75,024,900                       73,104,584                 16,012,354                   89,116,938                   3.62% 82.01% 4.90% 73,104,584                17,023,420                90,128,004                   3.71% 83.52% 4.52%

RASC 2004‐KS11 45,108,200                       54,655,152                 11,340,463                   65,995,615                   3.71% 82.76% 3.21% 54,655,152                12,016,865                66,672,017                   3.88% 83.54% 3.00%

RASC 2004‐KS12 40,221,700                       46,410,304                 8,065,094                     54,475,398                   3.00% 71.73% 1.70% 46,410,304                8,770,531                  55,180,835                   3.23% 72.97% 1.56%

RASC 2004‐KS2 72,261,000                       46,719,720                 10,627,714                   57,347,434                   2.69% 73.87% 4.30% 46,719,720                11,382,994                58,102,714                   2.75% 75.90% 3.93%

RASC 2004‐KS3 53,876,500                       35,315,496                 9,713,270                     45,028,766                   3.26% 81.36% 5.04% 35,315,496                10,488,742                45,804,238                   3.36% 83.58% 4.59%

RASC 2004‐KS5 90,354,000                       59,102,836                 11,617,347                   70,720,183                   2.26% 79.66% 5.36% 59,102,836                12,576,761                71,679,597                   2.33% 81.28% 4.87%

RASC 2004‐KS6 73,056,700                       61,229,444                 8,480,531                     69,709,975                   1.96% 74.96% 3.87% 61,229,444                9,073,459                  70,302,903                   2.04% 76.25% 3.57%

RASC 2004‐KS8 57,444,700                       39,351,372                 5,509,589                     44,860,961                   1.72% 76.48% 5.58% 39,351,372                6,028,931                  45,380,303                   1.79% 78.24% 5.11%

RFMSI 2004‐PS1 5,980,287                         30                                6,966                               6,996                           0.10% 60.00% 22.00% 30                               22,454                       22,484                           0.25% 68.00% 15.00%

RALI 2004‐QA1 16,543,200                       3,229,475                   787,234                        4,016,709                   1.14% 53.24% 5.43% 3,229,475                  838,679                     4,068,154                      1.14% 55.31% 5.08%

RALI 2004‐QA2 43,350,100                       9,869,127                   2,371,420                     12,240,547                   1.54% 51.73% 7.58% 9,869,127                  2,552,818                  12,421,945                   1.62% 51.89% 7.19%

RALI 2004‐QA3 34,917,300                       5,779,931                   2,705,734                     8,485,665                   1.95% 82.69% 13.85% 5,779,931                  2,795,933                  8,575,863                      1.91% 82.40% 12.77%

RALI 2004‐QA4 36,353,500                       6,987,875                   875,181                        7,863,055                   0.61% 46.61% 4.90% 6,987,875                  906,234                     7,894,109                      0.63% 46.15% 4.68%

RALI 2004‐QA5 51,874,200                       9,747,886                   2,754,024                     12,501,910                   1.86% 41.11% 7.70% 9,747,886                  3,002,431                  12,750,317                   1.97% 41.50% 7.25%

RALI 2004‐QA6 116,803,000                     33,420,062                 10,864,515                   44,284,577                   3.04% 45.41% 6.90% 33,420,062                11,581,717                45,001,779                   3.14% 45.94% 6.46%

RALI 2004‐QS1 53,749,000                       5,166,856                   2,526,323                     7,693,179                   1.12% 60.44% 7.21% 5,166,856                  2,684,456                  7,851,312                      1.15% 60.90% 6.69%

RALI 2004‐QS10 42,536,000                       5,152,431                   1,843,499                     6,995,930                   1.18% 51.73% 7.05% 5,152,431                  1,975,695                  7,128,125                      1.23% 51.66% 6.43%

RALI 2004‐QS11 41,108,800                       4,882,028                   1,265,738                     6,147,765                   0.84% 52.27% 7.41% 4,882,028                  1,404,882                  6,286,910                      0.89% 52.57% 6.80%

RALI 2004‐QS12 90,791,900                       8,263,536                   5,034,804                     13,298,340                   1.40% 56.57% 7.25% 8,263,536                  5,433,780                  13,697,316                   1.44% 57.66% 6.65%

RALI 2004‐QS13 19,586,100                       897,439                      220,604                        1,118,042                   0.60% 69.93% 3.85% 897,439                     227,579                     1,125,017                      0.63% 69.05% 3.55%

RALI 2004‐QS14 47,721,600                       5,112,041                   2,003,578                     7,115,619                   1.03% 54.95% 6.67% 5,112,041                  2,177,279                  7,289,320                      1.07% 55.85% 6.09%

Page 1 of 13

Page 70: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RALI 2004‐QS15 44,823,500                       7,241,985                   2,157,660                     9,399,645                   1.08% 58.29% 6.13% 7,241,985                  2,303,516                  9,545,501                      1.09% 60.00% 5.59%

RALI 2004‐QS16 122,331,000                     14,065,906                 8,089,458                     22,155,364                   1.85% 48.35% 5.95% 14,065,906                8,762,708                  22,828,614                   1.91% 48.96% 5.34%

RALI 2004‐QS2 55,629,300                       5,925,063                   2,173,061                     8,098,124                   1.41% 47.20% 10.21% 5,925,063                  2,451,198                  8,376,261                      1.56% 47.33% 9.74%

RALI 2004‐QS3 25,989,500                       1,043,520                   150,964                        1,194,483                   0.30% 83.50% 7.21% 1,043,520                  201,448                     1,244,968                      0.24% 84.91% 6.35%

RALI 2004‐QS4 60,224,800                       5,043,315                   2,514,519                     7,557,833                   1.49% 56.54% 6.95% 5,043,315                  2,789,365                  7,832,680                      1.55% 57.11% 6.33%

RALI 2004‐QS5 56,830,500                       5,772,119                   3,088,620                     8,860,739                   1.60% 62.57% 6.18% 5,772,119                  3,254,167                  9,026,286                      1.62% 63.78% 5.62%

RALI 2004‐QS6 21,433,700                       897,816                      140,477                        1,038,293                   0.33% 82.01% 6.28% 897,816                     149,316                     1,047,132                      0.35% 80.74% 5.90%

RALI 2004‐QS7 95,533,100                       8,740,955                   4,159,185                     12,900,140                   1.25% 47.27% 6.10% 8,740,955                  4,476,714                  13,217,669                   1.25% 49.44% 5.63%

RALI 2004‐QS8 60,188,900                       6,018,703                   2,170,631                     8,189,334                   1.27% 37.74% 5.81% 6,018,703                  2,314,869                  8,333,571                      1.29% 38.65% 5.37%

RALI 2004‐QS9 14,266,900                       1,092,000                   122,849                        1,214,849                   0.37% 91.46% 4.89% 1,092,000                  127,460                     1,219,460                      0.39% 90.07% 4.56%

RFSC 2004‐RP1 22,246,340                       21,298,410                 1,498,742                     22,797,152                   1.50% 70.00% 7.00% 21,298,410                1,756,222                  23,054,632                   2.50% 75.00% 5.00%

RAMP 2004‐RS10 118,295,000                     132,690,520               11,697,699                   144,388,219                 1.84% 72.14% 5.75% 132,690,520              12,881,048                145,571,568                 1.93% 73.54% 5.20%

RAMP 2004‐RS11 94,168,700                       92,311,920                 16,125,928                   108,437,848                 3.12% 67.86% 4.07% 92,311,920                17,591,061                109,902,981                 3.30% 69.28% 3.77%

RAMP 2004‐RS12 111,300,000                     103,672,080               11,176,891                   114,848,971                 1.77% 72.79% 5.16% 103,672,080              11,971,205                115,643,285                 1.82% 73.70% 4.70%

RAMP 2004‐RS2 60,517,400                       63,638,240                 5,241,262                     68,879,502                   1.82% 69.25% 6.63% 63,638,240                5,619,555                  69,257,795                   1.86% 70.78% 6.16%

RAMP 2004‐RS3 79,427,200                       29,713,598                 9,383,593                     39,097,191                   2.48% 66.26% 5.28% 29,713,598                10,315,758                40,029,356                   2.61% 68.01% 4.83%

RAMP 2004‐RS4 90,811,600                       81,105,512                 12,434,079                   93,539,591                   2.28% 77.15% 4.50% 81105512 13,731,051                94836562.55 2.45% 78.55% 4.20%

RAMP 2004‐RS6 84,914,900                       73,307,024                 5,580,781                     78,887,805                   1.60% 74.54% 10.80% 73,307,024                6,085,464                  79,392,488                   1.67% 75.15% 10.14%

RAMP 2004‐RS8 101,475,000                     77,282,208                 14,103,086                   91,385,294                   2.68% 87.90% 9.08% 77,282,208                14,917,840                92,200,048                   2.70% 88.56% 8.29%

RAMP 2004‐RZ1 44,934,500                       23,841,754                 3,353,855                     27,195,609                   1.39% 71.59% 6.06% 23,841,754                3,706,498                  27,548,252                   1.44% 73.70% 5.42%

RAMP 2004‐RZ3 38,288,300                       21,006,242                 2,299,533                     23,305,775                   1.46% 69.78% 10.49% 21,006,242                2,513,640                  23,519,882                   1.50% 70.13% 9.40%

RAMP 2004‐RZ4 36,602,300                       19,763,292                 3,638,905                     23,402,197                   1.95% 67.57% 5.94% 19,763,292                3,974,611                  23,737,903                   2.02% 68.55% 5.31%

RFMSI 2004‐S1 29,979,300                       387,804                      247,108                        634,912                      0.35% 40.33% 10.51% 387,804                     266,669                     654,473                         0.35% 41.40% 9.83%

RFMSI 2004‐S3 14,648,700                       24,459                        21,159                            45,619                         0.07% 85.11% 2.59% 24,459                       21,365                       45,825                           0.07% 80.02% 2.30%

RFMSI 2004‐S5 52,723,400                       636,206                      911,463                        1,547,669                   0.73% 34.88% 7.79% 636,206                     989,351                     1,625,557                      0.78% 34.65% 7.38%

RFMSI 2004‐S6 62,354,400                       1,300,639                   524,557                        1,825,196                   0.87% 16.34% 10.31% 1,300,639                  655,066                     1,955,705                      0.87% 19.85% 9.81%

RFMSI 2004‐S7 8,834,810                         11,889                        219,359                        231,248                      0.85% 119.10% 5.97% 11,889                       222,356                     234,245                         0.84% 114.89% 5.45%

RFMSI 2004‐S8 33,929,300                       1,071,380                   1,518,877                     2,590,257                   1.43% 54.28% 10.44% 1,071,380                  1,602,432                  2,673,812                      1.45% 54.16% 9.76%

RFMSI 2004‐S9 92,269,400                       4,352,376                   1,506,477                     5,858,852                   0.73% 36.00% 10.02% 4,352,376                  1,620,226                  5,972,601                      0.76% 35.57% 9.25%

RFMSI 2004‐SA1 33,397,000                       1,551,026                   1,436,724                     2,987,750                   1.14% 63.69% 10.02% 1,551,026                  1,450,280                  3,001,305                      1.09% 64.89% 9.33%

RAMP 2004‐SL1 49,934,200                       5,123,360                   3,504,509                     8,627,868                   2.45% 73.77% 0.49% 5,123,360                  4,286,744                  9,410,103                      2.49% 74.72% 0.44%

RAMP 2004‐SL2 39,977,000                       6,650,167                   40,041                            6,690,208                   0.58% 114.61% 99.97% 6,650,167                  42,649                       6,692,816                      0.62% 114.84% 99.97%

RAMP 2004‐SL3 21,811,200                       2,423,027                   15,119                            2,438,146                   0.63% 68.15% 99.97% 2,423,027                  16,123                       2,439,150                      0.44% 59.55% 99.97%

RAMP 2004‐SL4 23,294,100                       1,522,422                   368,148                        1,890,570                   7.84% 119.95% 99.97% 1,522,422                  401,555                     1,923,977                      7.73% 119.90% 99.97%

Page 2 of 13

Page 71: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RAAC 2004‐SP1 21,315,800                       5,450,655                   1,400,472                     6,851,127                   1.62% 85.74% 3.18% 5,450,655                  1,456,468                  6,907,123                      1.66% 85.98% 2.87%

RAAC 2004‐SP2 12,489,300                       306,458                      333,147                        639,605                      1.79% 80.13% 10.34% 306,458                     475,656                     782,114                         1.91% 81.34% 10.19%

RAAC 2004‐SP3 51,543,000                       2,895,378                   3,418,117                     6,313,495                   1.56% 72.44% 8.08% 2,895,378                  3,700,319                  6,595,697                      1.63% 72.99% 7.47%

GMACM 2005‐AA1 43,397,324                       15,694,805                 2,509,595                     18,204,400                   0.99% 73.10% 6.19% 15,694,805                2,789,551                  18,484,356                   0.46% 72.96% 6.23%

GMACM 2005‐AF1 78,584,528                       10,518,431                 3,671,445                     14,189,876                   1.35% 60.50% 4.72% 10,518,431                3,988,255                  14,506,685                   1.44% 61.73% 4.41%

GMACM 2005‐AF2 92,898,500                       37,280,396                 10,983,417                   48,263,814                   2.37% 69.48% 7.47% 37,280,396                12,166,787                49,447,183                   2.55% 69.70% 6.92%

RASC 2005‐AHL1 59,881,800                       90,548,952                 21,622,982                   112,171,934                 4.91% 78.78% 1.45% 90,548,952                23,021,946                113,570,898                 5.17% 80.20% 1.31%

RASC 2005‐AHL2 77,305,800                       89,717,216                 20,313,986                   110,031,202                 3.75% 72.69% 1.96% 89,717,216                21,908,936                111,626,152                 3.97% 74.39% 1.81%

RASC 2005‐AHL3 87,603,200                       110,649,984               22,151,704                   132,801,688                 3.34% 74.53% 1.84% 110,649,984              24,010,163                134,660,147                 3.54% 76.30% 1.66%

GMACM 2005‐AR1 79,879,700                       8,390,226                   764,048                        9,154,274                   0.38% 37.98% 10.83% 8,390,226                  1,034,456                  9,424,682                      0.46% 42.36% 10.65%

GMACM 2005‐AR2 106,252,000                     16,511,864                 1,889,101                     18,400,965                   0.65% 38.90% 7.97% 16,511,864                2,158,636                  18,670,500                   0.72% 38.69% 7.33%

GMACM 2005‐AR3 121,242,000                     17,472,642                 1,429,311                     18,901,953                   2.01% 11.48% 13.32% 17,472,642                1,758,779                  19,231,421                   2.17% 12.89% 12.90%

GMACM 2005‐AR4 93,353,000                       15,779,360                 2,930,942                     18,710,302                   2.45% 76.40% 21.25% 15,779,360                3,814,577                  19,593,937                   2.44% 76.77% 20.03%

GMACM 2005‐AR5 165,753,000                     24,410,584                 7,298,751                     31,709,335                   0.95% 73.27% 9.68% 24,410,584                7,550,812                  31,961,396                   0.96% 72.32% 9.08%

GMACM 2005‐AR6 189,951,000                     31,817,008                 7,381,582                     39,198,590                   1.58% 45.95% 12.60% 31,817,008                7,980,478                  39,797,486                   1.61% 46.76% 11.80%

RAMP 2005‐EFC1 120,931,000                     129,732,152               24,310,433                   154,042,585                 3.98% 62.35% 3.60% 129,732,152              26,416,180                156,148,332                 4.21% 63.82% 3.34%

RAMP 2005‐EFC2 82,897,300                       99,621,624                 16,555,046                   116,176,670                 3.31% 67.16% 2.56% 99,621,624                18,112,156                117,733,780                 3.52% 69.02% 2.35%

RAMP 2005‐EFC3 104,512,000                     108,962,064               26,050,866                   135,012,930                 5.44% 66.51% 3.63% 108,962,064              31,755,460                140,717,524                 5.76% 68.69% 3.33%

RAMP 2005‐EFC4 109,555,000                     127,554,616               28,616,675                   156,171,291                 5.60% 65.20% 4.20% 127,554,616              30,775,436                158,330,052                 5.86% 66.53% 3.85%

RAMP 2005‐EFC5 120,392,000                     123,280,328               26,840,517                   150,120,845                 3.61% 68.38% 2.63% 123,280,328              29,187,042                152,467,370                 3.83% 70.03% 2.40%

RAMP 2005‐EFC6 110,428,000                     126,799,432               25,228,226                   152,027,658                 3.64% 67.04% 2.19% 126,799,432              27,469,947                154,269,379                 3.90% 68.52% 2.01%

RASC 2005‐EMX1 76,515,500                       50,803,252                 17,304,653                   68,107,905                   3.76% 80.01% 3.93% 50,803,252                18,465,034                69,268,286                   3.93% 80.82% 3.57%

RASC 2005‐EMX2 80,822,000                       63,786,520                 23,402,656                   87,189,176                   4.79% 84.12% 3.92% 63,786,520                24,701,910                88,488,430                   4.92% 85.38% 3.59%

RASC 2005‐EMX3 96,797,700                       111,250,344               34,534,681                   145,785,025                 5.75% 82.90% 2.83% 111,250,344              36,469,231                147,719,575                 5.89% 84.18% 2.45%

RASC 2005‐EMX4 81,595,800                       102,258,680               27,464,118                   129,722,798                 5.16% 83.20% 2.72% 102,258,680              29,166,638                131,425,318                 5.36% 84.42% 2.40%

RFMSII 2005‐HI2 40,483,100                       40,735,232                 4,395,183                     45,130,415                   3.55% 109.68% 10.07% 40,735,232                5,719,056                  46,454,288                   3.67% 109.68% 9.12%

RFMSII 2005‐HI3 50,566,400                       42,996,004                 6,038,741                     49,034,745                   2.87% 109.39% 8.89% 42,996,004                6,422,393                  49,418,397                   2.98% 109.38% 8.07%

GMACM 2005‐J1 150,252,000                     11,658,749                 4,561,316                     16,220,065                   0.95% 48.89% 9.66% 11,658,749                4,947,801                  16,606,550                   0.99% 48.86% 8.83%

RASC 2005‐KS1 57,899,100                       59,461,776                 11,612,403                   71,074,179                   4.27% 71.71% 3.79% 59,461,776                14,641,987                74,103,763                   4.44% 73.39% 3.46%

RASC 2005‐KS10 213,167,000                     265,082,016               54,148,242                   319,230,258                 4.18% 72.07% 2.55% 265,082,016              61,175,371                326,257,387                 4.41% 73.22% 2.36%

RASC 2005‐KS11 248,301,000                     283,284,352               67,393,710                   350,678,062                 4.50% 68.84% 2.32% 283,284,352              72,778,888                356,063,240                 4.80% 70.39% 2.17%

RASC 2005‐KS12 204,726,000                     251,591,936               47,239,459                   298,831,395                 3.63% 68.77% 2.23% 251,591,936              51,146,247                302,738,183                 3.86% 70.34% 2.07%

RASC 2005‐KS2 43,146,600                       50,069,324                 8,796,811                     58,866,135                   3.77% 79.80% 6.28% 50,069,324                9,302,536                  59,371,860                   3.92% 80.24% 5.97%

RASC 2005‐KS3 42,914,800                       42,793,288                 6,367,234                     49,160,522                   2.64% 65.70% 3.77% 42,793,288                7,003,734                  49,797,022                   2.81% 67.13% 3.46%

Page 3 of 13

Page 72: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RASC 2005‐KS4 44,996,200                       45,376,136                 9,244,726                     54,620,862                   4.02% 67.74% 2.88% 45,376,136                10,981,489                56,357,625                   4.17% 69.85% 2.70%

RASC 2005‐KS5 43,999,800                       49,249,000                 10,469,744                   59,718,744                   3.78% 72.91% 2.82% 49,249,000                11,256,082                60,505,082                   3.96% 74.66% 2.62%

RASC 2005‐KS6 77,537,000                       81,880,192                 13,998,839                   95,879,031                   3.80% 64.12% 2.24% 81,880,192                18,472,647                100,352,839                 4.03% 65.95% 2.09%

RASC 2005‐KS7 58,618,500                       58,379,920                 14,575,320                   72,955,240                   4.21% 72.11% 3.28% 58,379,920                15,700,912                74,080,832                   4.41% 73.61% 2.99%

RASC 2005‐KS8 186,595,000                     186,829,760               46,773,188                   233,602,948                 3.91% 72.32% 2.43% 186,829,760              50,438,008                237,267,768                 4.11% 74.22% 2.23%

RASC 2005‐KS9 85,554,600                       78,648,304                 19,982,330                   98,630,634                   3.86% 70.33% 2.86% 78,648,304                21,822,866                100,471,170                 4.11% 71.97% 2.60%

RALI 2005‐QA1 47,988,200                       19,594,604                 1,151,504                     20,746,108                   1.19% 26.07% 6.24% 19,594,604                1,273,240                  20,867,844                   1.28% 26.25% 5.81%

RALI 2005‐QA10 178,706,000                     75,980,488                 20,208,468                   96,188,956                   2.79% 50.03% 5.30% 75,980,488                22,591,620                98,572,108                   2.99% 51.44% 4.87%

RALI 2005‐QA11 153,695,000                     65,176,612                 16,303,719                   81,480,331                   5.56% 61.05% 9.34% 65,176,612                29,664,180                94,840,792                   5.63% 61.72% 8.81%

RALI 2005‐QA12 80,807,000                       36,210,288                 11,443,403                   47,653,691                   2.85% 69.62% 7.24% 36,210,288                12,402,314                48,612,602                   2.97% 70.03% 6.62%

RALI 2005‐QA13 168,366,000                     90,168,016                 24,516,810                   114,684,826                 5.38% 44.35% 7.34% 90,168,016                28,101,785                118,269,801                 5.69% 45.31% 6.72%

RALI 2005‐QA2 100,380,000                     28,536,422                 8,525,922                     37,062,344                   2.29% 43.51% 5.11% 28,536,422                9,790,815                  38,327,237                   2.48% 45.61% 4.76%

RALI 2005‐QA3 97,515,000                       32,828,676                 12,618,604                   45,447,280                   3.44% 59.73% 3.44% 32,828,676                16,901,112                49,729,788                   3.58% 61.09% 3.13%

RALI 2005‐QA4 131,573,000                     38,587,508                 11,213,261                   49,800,769                   3.94% 39.63% 3.39% 38,587,508                14,210,644                52,798,152                   4.15% 41.81% 3.11%

RALI 2005‐QA5 10,595,300                       8,403,523                   299,430                        8,702,953                   1.26% 31.28% 7.72% 8,403,523                  340,515                     8,744,038                      1.34% 32.72% 7.28%

RALI 2005‐QA6 123,975,000                     42,395,160                 8,391,603                     50,786,763                   1.89% 48.91% 6.82% 42,395,160                9,280,099                  51,675,259                   2.01% 49.48% 6.28%

RALI 2005‐QA7 161,925,000                     41,583,120                 13,107,263                   54,690,383                   2.69% 43.71% 3.68% 41,583,120                17,691,067                59,274,187                   2.91% 46.18% 3.39%

RALI 2005‐QA8 134,355,000                     48,617,872                 18,366,301                   66,984,173                   3.31% 51.13% 4.30% 48,617,872                20,294,497                68,912,369                   3.43% 53.82% 4.01%

RALI 2005‐QA9 192,114,000                     78,550,000                 17,575,962                   96,125,962                   2.35% 45.48% 4.94% 78,550,000                19,280,061                97,830,061                   2.47% 46.57% 4.52%

RALI 2005‐QO1 151,577,000                     91,492,320                 24,950,771                   116,443,091                 3.06% 64.85% 4.14% 91,492,320                26,633,609                118,125,929                 3.23% 65.49% 3.97%

RALI 2005‐QO2 87,290,600                       66,217,468                 15,870,522                   82,087,990                   3.98% 58.22% 4.45% 66,217,468                16,770,550                82,988,018                   4.19% 58.23% 4.20%

RALI 2005‐QO3 104,330,000                     93,061,992                 16,097,869                   109,159,861                 3.45% 49.80% 3.45% 93,061,992                17,469,788                110,531,780                 3.72% 50.57% 3.34%

RALI 2005‐QO4 171,241,000                     154,346,784               30,078,842                   184,425,626                 3.26% 63.07% 3.84% 154,346,784              32,090,752                186,437,536                 3.43% 63.93% 3.68%

RALI 2005‐QO5 274,604,000                     271,638,656               43,278,663                   314,917,319                 2.73% 61.94% 3.58% 271,638,656              46,553,973                318,192,629                 2.91% 62.63% 3.45%

RALI 2005‐QS1 60,732,100                       6,317,292                   2,328,455                     8,645,747                   1.27% 50.37% 6.48% 6,317,292                  3,070,848                  9,388,140                      1.34% 50.11% 5.88%

RALI 2005‐QS10 83,401,700                       16,841,712                 7,892,340                     24,734,052                   2.15% 67.18% 8.46% 16,841,712                8,435,999                  25,277,711                   2.16% 68.63% 7.70%

RALI 2005‐QS11 68,584,700                       13,352,807                 4,754,478                     18,107,285                   1.59% 58.94% 7.14% 13,352,807                5,258,712                  18,611,519                   1.64% 60.35% 6.39%

RALI 2005‐QS12 167,267,000                     35,396,628                 16,090,236                   51,486,864                   2.55% 51.41% 6.49% 35,396,628                17,477,194                52,873,822                   2.60% 52.59% 5.82%

RALI 2005‐QS13 226,287,000                     47,740,092                 27,815,877                   75,555,969                   2.80% 55.19% 5.16% 47,740,092                30,202,165                77,942,257                   2.88% 56.67% 4.63%

RALI 2005‐QS14 162,316,000                     36,436,456                 5,182,883                     41,619,339                   1.44% 71.23% 4.09% 36,436,456                5,306,232                  41,742,688                   1.46% 71.36% 3.75%

RALI 2005‐QS15 140,032,000                     38,810,980                 13,391,564                   52,202,544                   1.87% 67.35% 6.53% 38,810,980                14,881,733                53,692,713                   1.94% 68.94% 5.77%

RALI 2005‐QS16 144,263,000                     37,338,056                 16,266,995                   53,605,051                   2.27% 61.22% 5.10% 37,338,056                17,517,711                54,855,767                   2.33% 62.49% 4.59%

RALI 2005‐QS17 171,629,000                     57,454,800                 20,807,270                   78,262,070                   2.63% 58.53% 5.55% 57,454,800                22,582,171                80,036,971                   2.74% 59.38% 5.05%

RALI 2005‐QS2 60,018,400                       6,908,540                   3,559,473                     10,468,013                   1.56% 50.78% 6.50% 6,908,540                  3,813,463                  10,722,002                   1.60% 51.71% 5.97%

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Page 73: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RALI 2005‐QS3 121,543,000                     16,516,756                 9,219,681                     25,736,437                   1.81% 61.99% 6.10% 16,516,756                11,148,005                27,664,761                   1.89% 62.83% 5.52%

RALI 2005‐QS4 63,100,200                       8,997,134                   3,346,524                     12,343,658                   1.78% 51.51% 5.96% 8,997,134                  4,506,358                  13,503,492                   1.84% 52.03% 5.34%

RALI 2005‐QS6 77,996,700                       14,549,124                 4,525,332                     19,074,456                   1.40% 59.18% 7.72% 14,549,124                4,902,785                  19,451,909                   1.44% 60.13% 7.03%

RALI 2005‐QS7 112,233,000                     19,669,164                 10,528,216                   30,197,380                   2.75% 47.09% 6.15% 19,669,164                11,601,839                31,271,003                   2.87% 48.45% 5.62%

RALI 2005‐QS8 18,857,500                       1,126,144                   406,263                        1,532,407                   0.87% 86.15% 5.85% 1,126,144                  426,599                     1,552,742                      0.90% 86.48% 5.40%

RALI 2005‐QS9 112,687,000                     20,427,054                 8,539,071                     28,966,125                   1.84% 58.75% 7.38% 20,427,054                9,326,729                  29,753,783                   1.89% 59.56% 6.57%

RAAC 2005‐RP1 49,275,460                       40,328,883                 2,600,866.78                42,929,749                   0.75% 115.00% 8.00% 40,328,883                6,095,685.02             46,424,568                   1.50% 125.00% 6.00%

RAAC 2005‐RP2 63,926,902                       36,422,338                 6,888,978.80                43,311,317                   2.00% 80.00% 5.00% 36,422,338                11,171,980.87          47,594,319                   3.00% 86.00% 4.00%

RAAC 2005‐RP3 61,442,327                       48,812,005                 8,208,847.30                57,020,853                   2.00% 90.00% 5.00% 48,812,005                13,761,264.34          62,573,270                   3.00% 100.00% 4.00%

RAMP 2005‐RS1 119,135,000                     108,060,368               15,413,269.43             123,473,637                 2.71% 67.41% 5.90% 108,060,368              16,665,866.19          124,726,234                 2.77% 68.91% 5.29%

RAMP 2005‐RS2 76,812,500                       86,405,144                 12,503,454.19             98,908,598                   2.59% 72.27% 3.64% 86,405,144                13,608,072.34          100,013,216                 2.74% 73.45% 3.35%

RAMP 2005‐RS3 116,569,000                     81,556,952                 13,009,787.87             94,566,740                   2.18% 68.04% 5.75% 81,556,952                14,351,578.66          95,908,531                   2.32% 68.79% 5.26%

RAMP 2005‐RS4 77,809,900                       68,499,384                 14,347,234.78             82,846,619                   3.47% 72.86% 5.45% 68,499,384                15,506,836.42          84,006,220                   3.61% 74.10% 4.99%

RAMP 2005‐RS5 71,906,600                       60,394,280                 7,477,624.91                67,871,905                   1.87% 73.35% 6.02% 60,394,280                8,175,356.28             68,569,636                   1.99% 74.31% 5.64%

RAMP 2005‐RS6 158,462,000                     154,750,976               28,063,271.17             182,814,247                 2.98% 74.45% 4.88% 154,750,976              30,366,787.09          185,117,763                 3.11% 75.29% 4.38%

RAMP 2005‐RS7 99,680,700                       64,248,840                 18,979,563.69             83,228,404                   3.54% 67.29% 4.53% 64,248,840                20,789,695.43          85,038,535                   3.74% 68.61% 4.09%

RAMP 2005‐RS8 133,600,000                     110,883,920               25,141,049.02             136,024,969                 3.40% 65.81% 3.81% 110,883,920              27,510,911.45          138,394,831                 3.60% 67.26% 3.49%

RAMP 2005‐RZ1 29,751,100                       18,001,520                 2,468,632.55                20,470,153                   1.57% 75.79% 7.65% 18,001,520                2,692,271.64             20,693,792                   1.63% 76.39% 6.93%

RAMP 2005‐RZ2 52,815,700                       49,061,136                 7,084,538.39                56,145,674                   4.29% 67.60% 8.40% 49,061,136                9,329,213.01             58,390,349                   4.37% 68.83% 7.58%

RAMP 2005‐RZ3 69,017,300                       66,842,724                 11,594,913.44             78,437,637                   2.70% 74.09% 4.25% 66,842,724                12,422,257.80          79,264,982                   2.79% 75.12% 3.82%

RAMP 2005‐RZ4 86,481,900                       87,630,912                 13,068,332.18             100,699,244                 2.96% 68.63% 6.05% 87,630,912                14,263,321.96          101,894,234                 3.07% 69.91% 5.45%

RFMSI 2005‐S1 67,904,700                       4,529,274                   2,059,051.11                6,588,325                   0.92% 52.34% 9.65% 4,529,274                  2,125,972.68             6,655,247                      0.92% 51.82% 8.98%

RFMSI 2005‐S3 15,126,800                       117,860                      113,407.78                   231,268                      0.43% 66.02% 7.49% 117,860                     123,837.94                241,698                         0.44% 69.15% 6.91%

RFMSI 2005‐S4 54,471,900                       5,355,274                   1,650,442.50                7,005,716                   1.27% 42.56% 11.66% 5,355,274                  1,754,288.27             7,109,562                      1.29% 42.19% 10.71%

RFMSI 2005‐S6 94,730,700                       5,918,915                   1,701,824.69                7,620,740                   1.11% 26.03% 10.23% 5,918,915                  1,872,399.65             7,791,315                      1.14% 26.30% 9.26%

RFMSI 2005‐S8 101,271,000                     10,350,910                 3,306,923.46                13,657,833                   1.09% 44.60% 9.13% 10,350,910                3,888,095.44             14,239,005                   1.20% 45.46% 8.26%

RFMSI 2005‐S9 94,515,200                       16,396,569                 2,643,061.75                19,039,631                   1.36% 42.35% 8.97% 16,396,569                3,456,038.62             19,852,608                   1.43% 42.89% 8.16%

RFMSI 2005‐SA1 42,935,500                       5,297,655                   1,048,756.19                6,346,411                   1.56% 40.37% 6.83% 5,297,655                  1,308,875.17             6,606,530                      1.57% 42.67% 6.61%

RFMSI 2005‐SA2 125,388,000                     17,543,368                 4,238,928.37                21,782,296                   1.30% 37.01% 7.80% 17,543,368                5,089,309.67             22,632,678                   1.36% 41.15% 7.18%

RFMSI 2005‐SA3 162,767,000                     27,648,460                 3,213,149.19                30,861,609                   0.74% 43.70% 10.72% 27,648,460                3,541,176.87             31,189,637                   0.77% 44.31% 10.09%

RFMSI 2005‐SA4 260,666,000                     42,539,240                 5,614,998.38                48,154,238                   0.82% 45.29% 11.39% 42,539,240                6,225,272.45             48,764,512                   0.84% 46.56% 10.56%

RFMSI 2005‐SA5 110,919,000                     26,268,070                 6,601,646.30                32,869,716                   2.70% 46.48% 9.49% 26,268,070                8,178,001.94             34,446,072                   2.88% 47.33% 8.72%

RAMP 2005‐SL1 50,936,700                       10,001,677                 284.23                            10,001,961                   0.00% 120.00% 5.23% 10,001,677                284.23                       10,001,961                   0.00% 120.00% 4.97%

RAMP 2005‐SL2 29,122,000                       6,526,876                   ‐                                 6,526,876                   0.00% 0.00% 14.97% 6,526,876                  ‐                              6,526,876                      0.00% 0.00% 14.62%

Page 5 of 13

Page 74: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RAAC 2005‐SP1 97,612,900                       2,005,153                   3,929,143.77                5,934,297                   2.82% 54.66% 13.13% 2,005,153                  4,369,170.70             6,374,323                      2.79% 55.68% 12.31%

RAAC 2005‐SP2 86,620,200                       27,690,902                 11,225,821.28             38,916,723                   2.41% 95.56% 2.27% 27,690,902                13,140,374.92          40,831,277                   2.50% 96.26% 2.07%

RAAC 2005‐SP3 62,296,700                       32,805,006                 11,080,209.37             43,885,215                   3.30% 86.73% 6.53% 32,805,006                11,795,375.71          44,600,382                   3.41% 87.41% 6.02%

GMACM 2006‐AR1 167,861,000                     41,549,824                 9,025,553.63                50,575,378                   1.83% 41.35% 8.27% 41,549,824                10,069,728.13          51,619,552                   1.96% 41.98% 7.71%

GMACM 2006‐AR2 113,332,000                     33,769,368                 5,513,836.12                39,283,204                   4.81% 53.56% 10.25% 33,769,368                7,160,254.89             40,929,623                   5.04% 55.53% 9.71%

RAMP 2006‐EFC1 105,673,000                     131,527,288               24,804,718.33             156,332,006                 4.04% 65.08% 2.57% 131,527,288              26,856,994.84          158,384,283                 4.28% 66.57% 2.36%

RAMP 2006‐EFC2 119,431,000                     113,343,304               31,898,098.82             145,241,403                 3.67% 73.76% 2.53% 113,343,304              34,677,640.35          148,020,944                 3.91% 75.42% 2.33%

RASC 2006‐EMX1 76,411,700                       103,261,992               26,022,508.12             129,284,500                 4.21% 89.66% 1.58% 103,261,992              27,439,028.08          130,701,020                 4.35% 90.71% 1.33%

RASC 2006‐EMX2 99,740,000                       154,469,824               39,380,096.33             193,849,920                 5.73% 86.28% 2.16% 154,469,824              41,426,749.41          195,896,573                 5.93% 87.29% 1.89%

RASC 2006‐EMX3 148,997,000                     248,248,192               64,452,974.86             312,701,167                 6.39% 89.97% 2.64% 248,248,192              67,185,085.69          315,433,278                 6.56% 90.75% 2.37%

RASC 2006‐EMX4 138,656,000                     231,413,104               55,874,623.77             287,287,728                 5.23% 89.15% 1.92% 231,413,104              58,601,959.69          290,015,064                 5.39% 90.10% 1.67%

RASC 2006‐EMX5 129,272,000                     212,265,456               47,994,865.64             260,260,322                 4.54% 87.98% 1.90% 212,265,456              50,700,812.69          262,966,269                 4.72% 89.15% 1.67%

RASC 2006‐EMX6 150,715,000                     230,764,512               56,193,921.69             286,958,434                 4.45% 89.76% 2.18% 230,764,512              59,740,004.05          290,504,516                 4.65% 90.79% 1.91%

RASC 2006‐EMX7 122,508,000                     191,037,456               54,838,415.24             245,875,871                 6.35% 93.73% 3.65% 191,037,456              57,866,935.09          248,904,391                 6.58% 94.54% 3.28%

RASC 2006‐EMX8 182,523,000                     293,947,328               98,291,205.00             392,238,533                 6.04% 98.39% 1.47% 293,947,328              102,053,195.26        396,000,523                 6.18% 99.25% 1.25%

RASC 2006‐EMX9 202,529,000                     314,238,976               108,753,051.28           422,992,027                 6.61% 95.14% 1.68% 314,238,976              113,705,960.54        427,944,937                 6.81% 96.31% 1.45%

RFMSII 2006‐HI1 57,295,600                       51,822,240                 7,793,874.56                59,616,115                   3.15% 109.07% 8.61% 51,822,240                8,258,043.37             60,080,283                   3.25% 109.09% 7.80%

GMACM 2006‐J1 154,537,000                     21,031,638                 10,032,389.02             31,064,027                   2.13% 46.68% 8.77% 21,031,638                10,722,109.85          31,753,748                   2.15% 47.35% 7.99%

RASC 2006‐KS1 161,535,000                     181,602,512               41,608,461.66             223,210,974                 4.05% 71.34% 2.45% 181,602,512              44,888,248.14          226,490,760                 4.29% 72.80% 2.26%

RASC 2006‐KS2 186,041,000                     225,987,888               46,915,521.85             272,903,410                 3.96% 68.77% 2.09% 225,987,888              50,980,277.41          276,968,165                 4.22% 70.49% 1.93%

RASC 2006‐KS3 207,859,000                     295,889,728               54,348,661.45             350,238,389                 4.41% 68.87% 2.96% 295,889,728              58,692,774.37          354,582,502                 4.67% 70.16% 2.71%

RASC 2006‐KS4 154,981,000                     179,118,544               30,386,815.29             209,505,359                 2.99% 72.86% 3.58% 179,118,544              33,074,216.54          212,192,761                 3.21% 73.62% 3.32%

RASC 2006‐KS5 179,152,000                     195,692,576               44,314,070.74             240,006,647                 4.01% 70.91% 3.22% 195,692,576              47,946,344.92          243,638,921                 4.23% 72.68% 2.98%

RASC 2006‐KS6 148,413,000                     154,937,872               35,658,316.29             190,596,188                 3.29% 75.68% 2.58% 154,937,872              38,471,304.43          193,409,176                 3.48% 77.22% 2.41%

RASC 2006‐KS7 150,402,000                     157,809,344               35,248,182.76             193,057,527                 3.63% 68.54% 2.68% 157,809,344              38,312,670.34          196,122,014                 3.88% 69.95% 2.48%

RASC 2006‐KS8 159,988,000                     170,108,208               46,022,787.43             216,130,995                 4.34% 72.20% 2.64% 170,108,208              49,573,737.21          219,681,945                 4.59% 73.74% 2.44%

RASC 2006‐KS9 351,699,000                     437,484,384               110,516,764.79           548,001,149                 4.43% 75.82% 2.57% 437,484,384              118,829,065.83        556,313,450                 4.68% 77.37% 2.36%

RAMP 2006‐NC1 91,619,500                       132,652,648               21,983,659.53             154,636,308                 4.56% 65.80% 3.91% 132,652,648              23,892,055.99          156,544,704                 4.85% 66.98% 3.59%

RAMP 2006‐NC2 160,407,000                     195,440,320               40,624,129.70             236,064,450                 3.65% 73.50% 2.69% 195,440,320              43,839,681.20          239,280,001                 3.87% 74.57% 2.45%

RAMP 2006‐NC3 115,964,000                     138,252,672               36,017,154.96             174,269,827                 4.49% 77.65% 2.61% 138,252,672              38,349,631.20          176,602,303                 4.68% 78.54% 2.31%

RALI 2006‐QA1 169,418,000                     108,642,664               10,994,798.34             119,637,462                 2.47% 33.81% 6.43% 108,642,664              12,867,329.36          121,509,993                 2.75% 34.61% 5.79%

RALI 2006‐QA10 112,308,000                     96,227,384                 21,978,540.57             118,205,925                 3.95% 56.11% 4.03% 96,227,384                23,696,527.27          119,923,911                 4.17% 57.21% 3.78%

RALI 2006‐QA11 111,893,000                     103,249,992               14,971,373.43             118,221,365                 3.10% 46.34% 4.27% 103,249,992              16,643,961.17          119,893,953                 3.34% 47.62% 4.01%

RALI 2006‐QA2 119,201,000                     76,290,344                 11,076,564.31             87,366,908                   1.99% 41.93% 2.44% 76,290,344                12,367,008.47          88,657,352                   2.16% 43.04% 2.26%

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Page 75: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RALI 2006‐QA3 107,832,000                     79,872,008                 12,184,250.14             92,056,258                   2.90% 42.58% 4.24% 79,872,008                13,572,986.23          93,444,994                   3.07% 44.18% 3.91%

RALI 2006‐QA4 84,136,300                       64,069,456                 11,746,782.24             75,816,238                   2.61% 57.22% 4.04% 64,069,456                12,753,170.22          76,822,626                   2.75% 58.23% 3.75%

RALI 2006‐QA5 180,920,000                     134,513,328               31,100,617.84             165,613,946                 3.79% 55.83% 4.89% 134,513,328              33,661,413.81          168,174,742                 3.97% 56.92% 4.52%

RALI 2006‐QA6 157,120,000                     157,140,672               24,618,582.84             181,759,255                 3.24% 50.73% 3.45% 157,140,672              26,876,632.82          184,017,305                 3.44% 51.83% 3.16%

RALI 2006‐QA7 162,266,000                     158,975,872               26,413,594.48             185,389,466                 4.93% 44.14% 5.59% 158,975,872              29,144,596.11          188,120,468                 5.21% 45.61% 5.17%

RALI 2006‐QA8 220,316,000                     218,725,584               31,563,682.04             250,289,266                 2.78% 52.56% 3.66% 218,725,584              34,711,601.54          253,437,186                 2.96% 53.98% 3.42%

RALI 2006‐QA9 93,397,800                       70,440,208                 15,584,628.23             86,024,836                   4.29% 47.62% 4.52% 70,440,208                17,255,411.08          87,695,619                   4.56% 49.33% 4.20%

RALI 2006‐QO1 207,064,000                     205,811,424               49,579,983.01             255,391,407                 3.78% 82.38% 4.90% 205,811,424              51,609,108.80          257,420,533                 3.81% 83.67% 4.61%

RALI 2006‐QO10 302,866,000                     297,754,720               76,237,613.44             373,992,333                 5.07% 58.29% 3.57% 297,754,720              81,540,579.54          379,295,300                 5.32% 59.46% 3.35%

RALI 2006‐QO2 138,880,000                     159,708,656               25,921,381.93             185,630,038                 3.61% 61.83% 4.56% 159,708,656              27,763,223.49          187,471,879                 3.80% 62.69% 4.33%

RALI 2006‐QO3 180,685,000                     166,210,208               33,160,900.48             199,371,108                 3.53% 56.79% 3.65% 166,210,208              35,697,972.44          201,908,180                 3.78% 57.53% 3.52%

RALI 2006‐QO5 315,201,000                     306,931,776               75,196,494.23             382,128,270                 4.46% 62.52% 3.63% 306,931,776              79,146,117.44          386,077,893                 4.66% 62.98% 3.44%

RALI 2006‐QO6 384,094,000                     376,267,360               85,445,935.37             461,713,295                 4.43% 55.85% 3.33% 376,267,360              92,088,304.22          468,355,664                 4.70% 56.93% 3.13%

RALI 2006‐QO7 503,856,000                     462,720,096               127,152,792.94           589,872,889                 4.93% 63.37% 4.10% 462,720,096              135,153,224.66        597,873,321                 5.17% 64.16% 3.86%

RALI 2006‐QO8 425,437,000                     409,652,384               91,508,096.63             501,160,481                 3.84% 61.42% 3.67% 409,652,384              96,702,852.11          506,355,236                 4.03% 61.89% 3.50%

RALI 2006‐QO9 191,938,000                     279,543,437               34,985,518.44             314,528,955                 4.18% 43.54% 1.40% 279,543,437              37,134,282.28          316,677,719                 4.33% 44.77% 1.29%

RALI 2006‐QS1 104,112,000                     32,860,416                 9,155,938.95                42,016,355                   1.90% 52.85% 4.62% 32,860,416                9,999,910.46             42,860,326                   2.04% 52.62% 4.18%

RALI 2006‐QS10 182,088,000                     68,550,712                 31,442,045.15             99,992,757                   2.98% 68.85% 4.72% 68,550,712                33,387,546.32          101,938,258                 3.06% 69.41% 4.26%

RALI 2006‐QS11 259,514,000                     108,321,120               49,822,666.69             158,143,787                 3.54% 65.83% 4.66% 108,321,120              53,600,409.15          161,921,529                 3.66% 66.82% 4.18%

RALI 2006‐QS12 167,521,000                     93,753,704                 29,928,563.86             123,682,268                 3.37% 72.25% 6.88% 93,753,704                32,089,736.17          125,843,440                 3.40% 73.93% 6.28%

RALI 2006‐QS13 200,154,000                     84,866,872                 31,764,038.00             116,630,910                 3.14% 61.01% 4.93% 84,866,872                34,692,652.86          119,559,525                 3.31% 62.21% 4.56%

RALI 2006‐QS14 231,506,000                     122,005,152               44,500,825.57             166,505,978                 3.77% 66.52% 5.65% 122,005,152              47,977,858.93          169,983,011                 3.89% 67.57% 5.13%

RALI 2006‐QS15 173,665,000                     90,586,080                 36,399,679.65             126,985,760                 3.96% 66.91% 5.00% 90,586,080                39,254,489.71          129,840,570                 4.07% 68.41% 4.50%

RALI 2006‐QS16 262,746,000                     121,998,320               55,073,323.86             177,071,644                 3.95% 67.09% 4.92% 121,998,320              59,401,932.92          181,400,253                 4.09% 68.27% 4.44%

RALI 2006‐QS17 189,373,000                     92,826,968                 43,059,309.65             135,886,278                 4.58% 67.17% 5.39% 92,826,968                45,827,887.62          138,654,856                 4.66% 68.40% 4.89%

RALI 2006‐QS18 399,059,000                     221,006,848               72,603,797.15             293,610,645                 3.00% 71.37% 4.75% 221,006,848              77,733,977.42          298,740,825                 3.11% 72.19% 4.33%

RALI 2006‐QS2 273,557,000                     89,840,944                 40,976,788.92             130,817,733                 3.33% 58.84% 5.37% 89,840,944                44,381,312.53          134,222,257                 3.42% 60.14% 4.83%

RALI 2006‐QS3 281,278,000                     135,170,320               39,911,970.07             175,082,290                 3.25% 61.94% 6.86% 135,170,320              43,417,228.58          178,587,549                 3.37% 62.99% 6.24%

RALI 2006‐QS4 241,118,000                     101,682,368               36,421,815.58             138,104,184                 2.77% 65.78% 4.99% 101,682,368              39,717,172.26          141,399,540                 2.88% 67.26% 4.48%

RALI 2006‐QS5 220,486,000                     104,462,496               34,183,179.32             138,645,675                 2.92% 63.97% 4.92% 104,462,496              36,660,690.79          141,123,187                 2.99% 65.12% 4.46%

RALI 2006‐QS6 259,260,000                     126,188,336               50,495,836.70             176,684,173                 3.85% 64.69% 5.17% 126,188,336              54,298,068.14          180,486,404                 3.98% 65.54% 4.65%

RALI 2006‐QS7 159,391,000                     85,710,288                 30,575,528.10             116,285,816                 3.66% 62.09% 4.00% 85,710,288                32,855,523.02          118,565,811                 3.77% 63.61% 3.63%

RALI 2006‐QS8 306,202,000                     151,491,712               63,733,463.97             215,225,176                 3.93% 69.26% 5.29% 151,491,712              67,940,100.93          219,431,813                 4.02% 70.22% 4.79%

RALI 2006‐QS9 161,707,000                     89,479,344                 37,088,955.96             126,568,300                 5.54% 58.33% 5.21% 89,479,344                39,510,970.72          128,990,315                 5.64% 59.69% 4.75%

Page 7 of 13

Page 76: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RAAC 2006‐RP1 73,894,256                       54,513,153                 3,737,774.28                58,250,927                   0.75% 95.00% 7.00% 54,513,153                8,987,458.93             63,500,612                   1.50% 105.00% 5.00%

RAAC 2006‐RP2 84,118,192                       95,656,452                 16,434,700.15             112,091,152                 3.00% 90.00% 5.00% 95,656,452                23,756,250.75          119,412,703                 4.00% 100.00% 4.50%

RAAC 2006‐RP3 76,299,251                       103,009,997               23,762,741.97             126,772,739                 4.00% 100.00% 4.00% 103,009,997              31,802,289.68          134,812,287                 5.00% 110.00% 3.50%

RAAC 2006‐RP4 117,579,211                     99,996,947                 24,307,553.83             124,304,501                 3.00% 100.00% 6.00% 99,996,947                34,230,514.15          134,227,461                 4.00% 105.00% 5.00%

RAMP 2006‐RS1 240,398,000                     268,328,864               62,394,721.83             330,723,586                 4.52% 65.18% 2.82% 268,328,864              67,185,690.41          335,514,554                 4.75% 66.57% 2.56%

RAMP 2006‐RS2 179,109,000                     186,614,528               47,423,907.17             234,038,435                 4.57% 68.03% 3.25% 186,614,528              51,164,116.56          237,778,645                 4.82% 69.41% 2.97%

RAMP 2006‐RS3 173,811,000                     163,307,936               50,007,682.72             213,315,619                 4.81% 68.78% 2.89% 163,307,936              53,507,872.31          216,815,808                 5.02% 69.98% 2.58%

RAMP 2006‐RS4 218,022,000                     275,999,616               69,375,644.80             345,375,261                 4.91% 76.15% 3.07% 275,999,616              74,318,840.48          350,318,456                 5.14% 77.44% 2.77%

RAMP 2006‐RS5 107,452,000                     100,960,232               30,760,843.65             131,721,076                 5.75% 68.05% 4.25% 100,960,232              32,826,864.68          133,787,097                 5.96% 69.06% 3.83%

RAMP 2006‐RS6 94,082,200                       116,071,472               23,260,826.30             139,332,298                 4.01% 71.70% 3.78% 116,071,472              25,092,692.84          141,164,165                 4.20% 73.06% 3.45%

RAMP 2006‐RZ1 111,985,000                     111,517,128               17,451,496.49             128,968,624                 2.74% 72.99% 5.48% 111,517,128              18,818,217.20          130,335,345                 2.83% 73.97% 4.96%

RAMP 2006‐RZ2 82,348,200                       107,809,872               18,297,242.91             126,107,115                 4.23% 69.76% 5.06% 107,809,872              19,712,858.32          127,522,730                 4.40% 70.89% 4.59%

RAMP 2006‐RZ3 189,473,000                     234,627,360               57,705,632.56             292,332,993                 4.69% 76.71% 3.24% 234,627,360              69,803,609.63          304,430,970                 4.90% 78.20% 2.98%

RAMP 2006‐RZ4 250,781,000                     291,810,560               68,179,730.11             359,990,290                 3.79% 76.64% 2.77% 291,810,560              73,216,840.14          365,027,400                 4.02% 77.66% 2.56%

RAMP 2006‐RZ5 140,548,000                     167,821,296               39,942,042.79             207,763,339                 4.23% 75.01% 3.53% 167,821,296              43,113,325.12          210,934,621                 4.48% 75.94% 3.21%

RFMSI 2006‐S1 104,563,000                     18,580,054                 3,513,946.15                22,094,000                   1.35% 39.23% 10.08% 18,580,054                3,957,418.96             22,537,473                   1.42% 40.35% 9.32%

RFMSI 2006‐S10 235,770,000                     48,625,508                 14,579,519.15             63,205,027                   2.17% 42.14% 8.84% 48,625,508                15,728,869.05          64,354,377                   2.20% 42.97% 8.14%

RFMSI 2006‐S11 166,975,000                     34,687,496                 10,495,719.59             45,183,216                   2.95% 34.31% 9.33% 34,687,496                11,425,153.61          46,112,650                   2.99% 35.21% 8.56%

RFMSI 2006‐S12 317,167,000                     55,954,076                 9,731,112.38                65,685,188                   0.41% 77.91% 16.11% 55,954,076                11,144,205.05          67,098,281                   0.45% 80.05% 15.32%

RFMSI 2006‐S2 72,130,500                       14,480,171                 3,477,914.87                17,958,086                   1.76% 43.11% 9.73% 14,480,171                3,910,139.57             18,390,311                   1.86% 43.89% 8.89%

RFMSI 2006‐S3 94,131,000                       22,820,258                 6,954,659.35                29,774,917                   2.52% 46.98% 9.55% 22,820,258                7,682,237.25             30,502,495                   2.61% 48.15% 8.80%

RFMSI 2006‐S4 94,980,300                       15,215,365                 4,556,751.01                19,772,116                   2.16% 32.29% 8.33% 15,215,365                5,055,995.15             20,271,360                   2.19% 34.05% 7.69%

RFMSI 2006‐S5 192,066,000                     40,615,088                 14,224,863.11             54,839,951                   2.56% 43.61% 8.72% 40,615,088                15,678,032.56          56,293,121                   2.63% 44.87% 7.94%

RFMSI 2006‐S6 151,955,000                     37,926,424                 8,092,714.37                46,019,138                   1.95% 43.97% 10.23% 37,926,424                8,984,662.98             46,911,087                   2.04% 44.70% 9.45%

RFMSI 2006‐S7 126,798,000                     28,830,190                 8,981,241.52                37,811,432                   2.13% 50.47% 9.12% 28,830,190                9,924,508.21             38,754,698                   2.20% 51.75% 8.40%

RFMSI 2006‐S8 111,925,000                     25,765,740                 10,281,756.98             36,047,497                   2.97% 50.38% 9.81% 25,765,740                10,836,751.60          36,602,492                   2.97% 51.05% 9.13%

RFMSI 2006‐S9 102,249,000                     24,611,726                 5,694,669.03                30,306,395                   1.55% 54.39% 9.72% 24,611,726                6,313,981.11             30,925,707                   1.60% 55.79% 8.94%

RFMSI 2006‐SA1 93,343,700                       26,678,300                 3,423,521.26                30,101,821                   1.91% 29.88% 9.97% 26,678,300                4,035,427.32             30,713,727                   2.07% 31.38% 9.28%

RFMSI 2006‐SA2 260,918,000                     83,832,176                 20,547,779.61             104,379,956                 4.48% 32.66% 8.38% 83,832,176                24,922,709.72          108,754,886                 4.70% 32.35% 7.86%

RFMSI 2006‐SA3 94,405,800                       28,849,486                 5,157,551.35                34,007,037                   1.91% 55.08% 13.80% 28,849,486                5,356,601.00             34,206,087                   1.92% 54.19% 12.87%

RFMSI 2006‐SA4 79,874,400                       31,590,606                 1,281,942.59                32,872,549                   0.56% 33.61% 6.99% 31,590,606                1,484,907.46             33,075,513                   0.63% 33.96% 6.72%

RAAC 2006‐SP1 56,160,400                       67,229,632                 10,071,483.48             77,301,115                   2.56% 66.94% 1.49% 67,229,632                12,087,403.06          79,317,035                   2.82% 67.04% 1.39%

RAAC 2006‐SP2 76,004,700                       73,882,032                 16,076,430.43             89,958,462                   3.49% 72.44% 3.28% 73,882,032                17,306,740.96          91,188,773                   3.66% 73.60% 2.95%

RAAC 2006‐SP3 75,144,000                       62,703,300                 15,458,661.19             78,161,961                   4.31% 66.74% 4.72% 62,703,300                16,529,658.79          79,232,959                   4.52% 67.43% 4.40%

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Page 77: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RAAC 2006‐SP4 81,881,600                       53,271,208                 11,468,942.70             64,740,151                   2.34% 79.54% 3.90% 53,271,208                12,206,139.70          65,477,348                   2.44% 80.16% 3.65%

GMACM 2007‐HE3 114,190,447                     107,431,287               8,866,701.50                116,297,989                 3.43% 103.96% 8.71% 107,431,287              9,400,679.18             116,831,967                 3.49% 104.18% 7.72%

RASC 2007‐KS1 139,154,000                     137,901,744               33,271,442.75             171,173,187                 3.57% 66.70% 2.47% 137,901,744              36,304,514.25          174,206,258                 3.81% 68.32% 2.25%

RASC 2007‐KS2 340,770,000                     366,682,272               99,783,176.83             466,465,449                 3.80% 74.11% 1.80% 366,682,272              107,470,237.27        474,152,509                 4.05% 75.47% 1.66%

RASC 2007‐KS3 486,350,000                     466,503,616               147,374,458.46           613,878,074                 4.56% 71.74% 2.52% 466,503,616              157,673,643.01        624,177,259                 4.80% 73.18% 2.33%

RASC 2007‐KS4 87,434,500                       95,489,152                 29,333,235.22             124,822,387                 4.82% 75.25% 2.08% 95,489,152                31,142,218.03          126,631,370                 5.04% 76.77% 1.93%

RALI 2007‐QA1 131,898,000                     106,556,560               21,912,241.12             128,468,801                 3.26% 51.79% 3.33% 106,556,560              23,891,198.63          130,447,759                 3.45% 53.18% 3.11%

RALI 2007‐QA2 104,185,000                     100,350,624               15,854,384.39             116,205,008                 3.40% 46.20% 3.39% 100,350,624              17,195,223.48          117,545,847                 3.59% 47.41% 3.20%

RALI 2007‐QA3 280,502,000                     270,874,944               43,346,422.33             314,221,366                 2.87% 52.59% 3.30% 270,874,944              47,365,205.02          318,240,149                 3.10% 53.26% 3.09%

RALI 2007‐QA4 64,657,100                       71,406,680                 13,082,303.77             84,488,984                   3.26% 62.37% 3.26% 71,406,680                14,062,919.33          85,469,599                   3.43% 63.22% 3.02%

RALI 2007‐QA5 160,637,000                     132,693,904               22,236,256.92             154,930,161                 3.66% 41.87% 4.03% 132,693,904              24,183,418.08          156,877,322                 3.84% 42.98% 3.72%

RALI 2007‐QH1 205,060,000                     173,080,880               34,784,408.47             207,865,288                 3.00% 57.99% 3.29% 173,080,880              37,026,554.92          210,107,435                 3.18% 58.34% 3.12%

RALI 2007‐QH2 126,633,000                     118,749,672               33,939,086.50             152,688,758                 6.65% 52.81% 3.42% 118,749,672              36,139,043.31          154,888,715                 7.03% 53.91% 3.26%

RALI 2007‐QH3 129,829,000                     124,914,440               24,581,446.95             149,495,887                 3.09% 59.43% 2.79% 124,914,440              26,441,687.54          151,356,128                 3.31% 60.19% 2.67%

RALI 2007‐QH4 170,646,000                     127,040,496               42,935,026.44             169,975,522                 6.12% 53.30% 3.78% 127,040,496              45,954,731.13          172,995,227                 6.40% 54.77% 3.57%

RALI 2007‐QH5 214,651,000                     167,367,632               40,277,435.92             207,645,068                 3.15% 57.23% 2.77% 167,367,632              42,616,208.67          209,983,841                 3.29% 58.04% 2.65%

RALI 2007‐QH6 260,873,000                     198,236,480               54,346,655.03             252,583,135                 4.05% 53.91% 3.10% 198,236,480              58,266,218.67          256,502,699                 4.33% 54.59% 2.95%

RALI 2007‐QH7 159,235,000                     108,551,888               35,612,510.47             144,164,398                 6.07% 45.92% 3.42% 108,551,888              37,896,656.69          146,448,545                 6.38% 46.87% 3.24%

RALI 2007‐QH8 241,780,000                     190,100,416               54,200,233.17             244,300,649                 4.48% 52.80% 2.72% 190,100,416              57,993,811.53          248,094,228                 4.76% 53.77% 2.60%

RALI 2007‐QH9 264,160,000                     189,462,720               65,035,399.56             254,498,120                 4.37% 56.25% 1.99% 189,462,720              69,084,524.07          258,547,244                 4.65% 57.03% 1.91%

RALI 2007‐QO1 227,154,000                     203,088,016               61,246,053.84             264,334,070                 4.96% 57.40% 2.31% 203,088,016              65,365,494.17          268,453,510                 5.23% 58.80% 2.20%

RALI 2007‐QO2 189,409,000                     173,127,472               50,263,824.10             223,391,296                 4.92% 62.04% 3.39% 173,127,472              53,268,419.32          226,395,891                 5.14% 63.08% 3.22%

RALI 2007‐QO3 114,697,000                     95,646,920                 27,085,364.58             122,732,285                 4.43% 60.31% 3.95% 95,646,920                28,722,433.47          124,369,353                 4.62% 61.34% 3.76%

RALI 2007‐QO4 199,702,000                     158,369,120               46,732,124.37             205,101,244                 3.92% 64.18% 3.77% 158,369,120              49,783,051.83          208,152,172                 4.12% 65.00% 3.56%

RALI 2007‐QO5 101,488,000                     71,781,592                 28,244,090.97             100,025,683                 6.81% 57.16% 4.63% 71,781,592                29,830,337.00          101,611,929                 7.11% 57.98% 4.39%

RALI 2007‐QS1 514,166,000                     205,924,944               65,799,314.55             271,724,259                 2.64% 55.75% 5.00% 205,924,944              71,520,337.50          277,445,282                 2.75% 56.96% 4.57%

RALI 2007‐QS10 187,295,000                     88,095,432                 31,183,417.81             119,278,850                 2.99% 60.85% 4.23% 88,095,432                34,052,702.42          122,148,134                 3.11% 62.62% 3.84%

RALI 2007‐QS11 115,299,000                     64,526,632                 20,848,480.66             85,375,113                   3.77% 58.23% 4.94% 64,526,632                22,381,103.65          86,907,736                   3.92% 59.00% 4.51%

RALI 2007‐QS2 218,323,000                     86,062,256                 46,286,092.33             132,348,348                 4.22% 62.83% 4.62% 86,062,256                49,862,528.25          135,924,784                 4.30% 64.61% 4.14%

RALI 2007‐QS3 400,111,000                     178,849,408               84,874,864.84             263,724,273                 3.86% 65.43% 4.39% 178,849,408              91,459,690.85          270,309,099                 3.99% 66.93% 3.98%

RALI 2007‐QS4 281,095,000                     132,726,448               60,795,619.89             193,522,068                 5.63% 61.00% 7.32% 132,726,448              64,839,033.20          197,565,481                 5.79% 61.83% 6.79%

RALI 2007‐QS5 185,069,000                     79,613,944                 30,436,299.45             110,050,243                 3.12% 63.78% 5.24% 79,613,944                32,820,042.86          112,433,987                 3.24% 64.60% 4.77%

RALI 2007‐QS6 318,949,000                     162,357,904               49,608,340.29             211,966,244                 3.63% 55.49% 5.85% 162,357,904              53,606,396.37          215,964,300                 3.77% 56.42% 5.38%

RALI 2007‐QS7 353,706,000                     137,847,936               50,281,147.26             188,129,083                 2.81% 53.23% 3.73% 137,847,936              54,666,675.19          192,514,611                 2.94% 54.51% 3.41%

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Page 78: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RALI 2007‐QS8 299,528,000                     110,000,536               56,705,801.27             166,706,337                 3.37% 62.60% 4.03% 110,000,536              61,022,599.03          171,023,135                 3.48% 63.90% 3.63%

RALI 2007‐QS9 314,816,000                     136,486,560               50,961,218.29             187,447,778                 3.23% 57.11% 4.57% 136,486,560              55,686,732.88          192,173,293                 3.38% 58.43% 4.16%

RAAC 2007‐RP1 125,009,784                     97,583,582                 16,000,283.63             113,583,865                 1.50% 95.00% 4.00% 97,583,582                28,793,868.39          126,377,450                 2.50% 102.00% 3.00%

RAAC 2007‐RP2 94,633,637                       77,819,856                 25,695,858.68             103,515,714                 3.00% 102.00% 3.00% 77,819,856                35,870,900.12          113,690,756                 4.00% 110.00% 2.50%

RAAC 2007‐RP3 124,499,411                     142,543,564               43,630,746.41             186,174,311                 5.00% 85.00% 3.50% 142,543,564              56,848,785.18          199,392,349                 6.00% 92.00% 2.50%

RAAC 2007‐RP4 103,992,215                     105,847,953               43,357,279.56             149,205,232                 4.50% 100.00% 3.00% 105,847,953              58,467,075.88          164,315,029                 5.50% 110.00% 2.00%

RAMP 2007‐RS1 155,948,000                     125,306,384               50,965,975.08             176,272,359                 5.13% 80.81% 4.35% 125,306,384              54,120,616.48          179,427,000                 5.31% 81.25% 3.88%

RAMP 2007‐RS2 134,519,000                     136,505,712               41,203,760.94             177,709,473                 4.99% 77.26% 4.39% 136,505,712              44,057,083.31          180,562,795                 5.18% 78.11% 3.93%

RAMP 2007‐RZ1 105,726,000                     114,385,728               27,964,050.39             142,349,778                 3.90% 71.86% 3.04% 114,385,728              30,325,335.86          144,711,064                 4.11% 73.25% 2.73%

RFMSI 2007‐S1 163,319,000                     32,508,594                 10,603,296.26             43,111,890                   2.63% 40.62% 10.29% 32,508,594                12,021,568.50          44,530,162                   2.72% 42.25% 9.33%

RFMSI 2007‐S2 159,531,000                     27,262,366                 13,717,619.70             40,979,986                   3.11% 44.99% 9.84% 27,262,366                15,049,178.15          42,311,544                   3.18% 46.06% 8.99%

RFMSI 2007‐S3 189,809,000                     39,978,232                 9,956,023.21                49,934,255                   1.73% 42.37% 8.34% 39,978,232                10,974,340.56          50,952,573                   1.79% 43.07% 7.57%

RFMSI 2007‐S4 113,085,000                     22,693,986                 6,233,224.84                28,927,211                   1.36% 52.38% 7.79% 22,693,986                6,831,775.79             29,525,762                   1.40% 53.28% 7.05%

RFMSI 2007‐S5 192,919,000                     34,898,348                 14,906,868.60             49,805,217                   2.66% 42.64% 8.38% 34,898,348                16,235,808.64          51,134,157                   2.72% 43.56% 7.69%

RFMSI 2007‐S6 254,708,000                     59,653,252                 16,106,551.41             75,759,803                   2.30% 35.02% 6.72% 59,653,252                17,746,265.24          77,399,517                   2.36% 36.46% 6.20%

RFMSI 2007‐S7 167,964,000                     30,685,534                 9,969,674.36                40,655,208                   1.97% 44.34% 9.29% 30,685,534                11,176,028.45          41,861,562                   2.03% 45.90% 8.41%

RFMSI 2007‐S8 156,350,000                     38,799,972                 12,133,632.87             50,933,605                   2.80% 42.39% 9.03% 38,799,972                13,310,509.79          52,110,482                   2.87% 43.36% 8.26%

RFMSI 2007‐S9 52,375,600                       10,835,202                 3,071,243.89                13,906,446                   1.21% 73.13% 10.01% 10,835,202                3,301,525.80             14,136,728                   1.23% 72.73% 9.08%

RFMSI 2007‐SA1 92,558,200                       37,352,004                 1,318,561.88                38,670,566                   0.75% 23.09% 7.53% 37,352,004                1,420,268.57             38,772,273                   0.77% 23.78% 7.30%

RFMSI 2007‐SA2 124,351,000                     46,953,572                 12,908,179.50             59,861,752                   4.09% 54.60% 9.43% 46,953,572                17,372,667.98          64,326,240                   4.28% 54.39% 9.10%

RFMSI 2007‐SA3 128,708,000                     48,091,736                 1,497,854.76                49,589,591                   0.51% 34.56% 11.24% 48,091,736                1,567,928.94             49,659,665                   0.59% 28.68% 10.65%

RFMSI 2007‐SA4 138,022,000                     50,466,544                 1,475,677.42                51,942,221                   0.53% 38.54% 15.33% 50,466,544                1,891,581.91             52,358,126                   0.61% 40.93% 14.47%

RAAC 2007‐SP1 115,973,000                     49,744,780                 21,829,237.53             71,574,018                   3.15% 78.87% 5.12% 49,744,780                23,489,426.64          73,234,207                   3.28% 79.81% 4.66%

RAAC 2007‐SP2 112,366,000                     84,580,024                 32,138,663.32             116,718,687                 3.83% 78.43% 3.05% 84,580,024                34,690,498.02          119,270,522                 4.01% 79.91% 2.72%

RAAC 2007‐SP3 134,150,000                     92,288,840                 31,957,279.80             124,246,120                 2.80% 80.42% 2.82% 92,288,840                35,171,475.06          127,460,315                 3.01% 81.80% 2.55%

GMACM 2003‐J10 10,537,500                       1,342                           268,947                        270,289                      1.19% 98.19% 4.63% 1,342                          271,771                     273,113                         1.21% 97.04% 4.25%

GMACM 2003‐AR1 45,197,800                       2,108,188                   74,231                            2,182,418                   0.12% 30.36% 16.81% 2,108,188                  70,916                       2,179,103                      0.12% 29.58% 16.05%

GMACM 2003‐AR2 57,176,500                       1,127,589                   82,643                            1,210,232                   0.33% 5.08% 6.62% 1,127,589                  159,142                     1,286,731                      0.36% 9.06% 6.44%

GMACM 2003‐GH2 40,839,400                       5,142,159                   1,926,488                     7,068,648                   1.35% 54.22% 5.66% 5,142,159                  2,048,878                  7,191,037                      1.38% 55.32% 5.32%

GMACM 2003‐J5 11,212,100                       172,479                      16,661                            189,140                      0.07% 89.22% 3.94% 172,479                     17,406                       189,885                         0.08% 89.08% 3.57%

GMACM 2003‐J6 39,249,900                       422,020                      365,014                        787,035                      0.29% 50.99% 8.96% 422,020                     363,541                     785,561                         0.29% 49.67% 8.39%

GMACM 2003‐J7 49,888,000                       620,441                      975,966                        1,596,408                   0.72% 41.42% 8.08% 620,441                     1,027,331                  1,647,772                      0.74% 41.12% 7.57%

GMACM 2003‐J8 57,316,100                       851,528                      757,588                        1,609,116                   0.34% 57.69% 7.95% 851,528                     779,728                     1,631,256                      0.34% 57.51% 7.43%

GMACM 2003‐J9 50,256,400                       999,199                      1,441,001                     2,440,200                   1.05% 44.38% 9.17% 999,199                     1,508,484                  2,507,683                      1.04% 45.38% 8.62%

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Page 79: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

GMACM 2010‐1 25,581,091                       8,944,455                   1,516,202                     10,460,656                   1.00% 105.00% 12.00% 8,944,455                  3,836,248                  12,780,703                   2.00% 110.00% 8.00%

GMACM 2010‐2 214,522,150                     16,647,190                 4,412,633                     21,059,823                   1.20% 41.50% 1.59% 16,647,190                4,906,889                  21,554,079                   1.25% 42.60% 1.51%

RALI 1999‐QS4 180,155                             27,670                        ‐                                 27,670                         0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 27,670                       ‐                              27,670                           0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

RALI 2001‐QS13 1,796,650                         301,852                      7,218                               309,070                      0.34% 90.74% 3.99% 301,852                     7,455                          309,306                         0.35% 90.24% 3.44%

RALI 2001‐QS16 6,619,120                         1,949,395                   260,165                        2,209,561                   0.89% 67.25% 6.72% 1,949,395                  279,747                     2,229,142                      0.93% 68.04% 6.40%

RALI 2001‐QS17 5,432,610                         1,885,256                   515,502                        2,400,758                   1.65% 89.72% 6.60% 1,885,256                  503,536                     2,388,792                      1.63% 87.70% 6.39%

RALI 2001‐QS18 9,718,020                         2,588,240                   825,244                        3,413,483                   2.22% 58.50% 6.09% 2,588,240                  871,701                     3,459,940                      2.29% 59.28% 5.83%

RALI 2001‐QS19 2,597,030                         312,485                      24,174                            336,660                      0.56% 111.86% 3.07% 312,485                     24,566                       337,051                         0.58% 110.19% 2.65%

RALI 2002‐QS1 11,179,300                       1,904,898                   268,854                        2,173,752                   0.71% 52.75% 7.75% 1,904,898                  298,839                     2,203,737                      0.76% 54.01% 7.36%

RALI 2002‐QS10 2,496,550                         571,188                      349                                571,537                      0.02% 12.64% 9.02% 571,188                     554                             571,742                         0.03% 13.37% 8.68%

RALI 2002‐QS11 14,429,100                       2,954,325                   543,175                        3,497,500                   1.25% 48.86% 8.61% 2,954,325                  599,219                     3,553,544                      1.30% 50.93% 8.15%

RALI 2002‐QS12 18,731,000                       3,179,002                   1,626,344                     4,805,346                   2.08% 66.02% 6.83% 3,179,002                  1,724,525                  4,903,527                      2.09% 68.16% 6.43%

RALI 2002‐QS13 6,296,570                         654,041                      114,829                        768,870                      1.19% 86.39% 5.74% 654,041                     114,280                     768,321                         1.17% 87.10% 5.38%

RALI 2002‐QS14 14,914,300                       1,819,878                   1,166,803                     2,986,681                   4.75% 29.16% 7.32% 1,819,878                  1,246,765                  3,066,643                      4.66% 31.08% 6.95%

RALI 2002‐QS16 5,138,820                         245,594                      80,333                            325,928                      0.80% 108.05% 4.69% 245,594                     81,985                       327,580                         0.81% 107.85% 4.04%

RALI 2002‐QS17 28,919,100                       4,004,214                   1,599,039                     5,603,253                   1.34% 60.27% 6.31% 4,004,214                  1,709,851                  5,714,065                      1.37% 61.40% 5.85%

RALI 2002‐QS18 11,831,600                       602,532                      186,089                        788,621                      0.83% 98.69% 4.98% 602,532                     186,586                     789,118                         0.84% 97.14% 4.63%

RALI 2002‐QS19 48,032,600                       5,399,650                   2,188,235                     7,587,885                   0.98% 66.24% 6.33% 5,399,650                  2,311,628                  7,711,278                      1.01% 66.59% 5.99%

RALI 2002‐QS2 8,713,780                         1,369,443                   446,086                        1,815,530                   1.03% 67.66% 5.23% 1,369,443                  466,110                     1,835,553                      1.03% 69.90% 4.88%

RALI 2002‐QS3 16,069,600                       3,444,894                   1,197,211                     4,642,104                   1.78% 71.75% 8.75% 3,444,894                  1,245,236                  4,690,130                      1.82% 71.16% 8.23%

RALI 2002‐QS4 4,338,830                         412,889                      34,905                            447,794                      0.49% 102.46% 2.84% 412,889                     36,602                       449,491                         0.51% 102.64% 2.51%

RALI 2002‐QS5 14,504,800                       3,697,314                   762,892                        4,460,206                   1.73% 46.27% 6.39% 3,697,314                  811,449                     4,508,763                      1.78% 47.35% 6.14%

RALI 2002‐QS6 20,885,800                       3,656,902                   1,149,907                     4,806,809                   1.00% 80.33% 6.40% 3,656,902                  1,220,861                  4,877,764                      1.04% 80.41% 6.05%

RALI 2002‐QS7 15,217,800                       2,401,107                   352,100                        2,753,207                   0.88% 41.04% 7.77% 2,401,107                  389,896                     2,791,003                      0.91% 43.12% 7.41%

RALI 2002‐QS8 3,388,100                         349,587                      35,728                            385,315                      0.69% 93.42% 4.73% 349,587                     35,858                       385,445                         0.69% 93.66% 4.44%

RALI 2002‐QS9 14,107,500                       2,780,649                   362,529                        3,143,178                   0.65% 70.27% 10.63% 2,780,649                  373,361                     3,154,010                      0.66% 69.32% 10.06%

RALI 2003‐QA1 12,675,700                       2,666,857                   853,816                        3,520,672                   2.11% 46.94% 6.97% 2,666,857                  951,133                     3,617,990                      2.26% 48.51% 6.75%

RALI 2003‐QS10 84,633,100                       5,837,929                   2,443,816                     8,281,745                   0.61% 65.06% 6.17% 5,837,929                  2,629,886                  8,467,815                      0.63% 65.53% 5.73%

RALI 2003‐QS11 86,692,000                       6,531,428                   2,890,632                     9,422,060                   0.76% 60.37% 6.19% 6,531,428                  3,012,661                  9,544,089                      0.76% 61.21% 5.75%

RALI 2003‐QS12 22,515,500                       581,491                      258,234                        839,725                      0.63% 86.02% 5.25% 581,491                     262,716                     844,207                         0.64% 86.23% 4.79%

RALI 2003‐QS13 96,865,400                       5,656,400                   4,932,346                     10,588,746                   1.14% 63.53% 6.47% 5,656,400                  5,257,091                  10,913,490                   1.16% 65.00% 6.04%

RALI 2003‐QS14 20,261,500                       592,329                      132,615                        724,944                      0.32% 89.26% 2.78% 592,329                     138,948                     731,278                         0.33% 89.93% 2.50%

RALI 2003‐QS15 88,816,100                       6,431,615                   4,301,167                     10,732,782                   1.16% 55.13% 5.20% 6,431,615                  4,587,646                  11,019,261                   1.19% 56.03% 4.82%

RALI 2003‐QS16 17,796,900                       739,870                      256,858                        996,728                      0.64% 101.18% 4.72% 739,870                     253,986                     993,856                         0.63% 101.79% 4.42%

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RALI 2003‐QS17 111,242,000                     7,073,351                   4,883,486                     11,956,836                   0.97% 60.24% 5.66% 7,073,351                  5,069,494                  12,142,844                   0.98% 60.47% 5.29%

RALI 2003‐QS18 16,428,400                       258,305                      100,053                        358,358                      0.28% 96.28% 3.75% 258,305                     100,233                     358,538                         0.28% 95.03% 3.47%

RALI 2003‐QS19 73,498,300                       5,503,560                   1,121,994                     6,625,554                   0.62% 33.47% 6.48% 5,503,560                  1,201,314                  6,704,874                      0.61% 35.59% 6.05%

RALI 2003‐QS2 38,176,100                       3,894,436                   1,160,090                     5,054,526                   0.96% 46.97% 7.13% 3,894,436                  1,290,829                  5,185,265                      1.02% 48.15% 6.71%

RALI 2003‐QS20 21,343,400                       690,376                      239,320                        929,696                      0.48% 96.52% 1.47% 690,376                     261,949                     952,325                         0.53% 96.07% 1.44%

RALI 2003‐QS21 46,079,200                       5,354,450                   2,103,864                     7,458,314                   0.89% 67.33% 5.66% 5,354,450                  2,255,661                  7,610,110                      0.91% 68.41% 5.25%

RALI 2003‐QS22 57,256,200                       4,282,535                   2,897,840                     7,180,375                   1.31% 52.71% 5.91% 4,282,535                  3,112,867                  7,395,402                      1.35% 53.60% 5.47%

RALI 2003‐QS23 17,029,000                       596,536                      340,621                        937,157                      1.02% 86.64% 5.79% 596,536                     353,642                     950,178                         1.04% 88.10% 5.38%

RALI 2003‐QS3 12,428,500                       631,877                      28,027                            659,904                      0.13% 83.06% 4.20% 631,877                     28,037                       659,914                         0.13% 84.86% 3.86%

RALI 2003‐QS4 43,827,400                       4,683,848                   1,843,400                     6,527,248                   0.97% 64.54% 7.12% 4,683,848                  1,928,630                  6,612,477                      0.99% 64.23% 6.67%

RALI 2003‐QS5 15,902,100                       797,833                      126,996                        924,830                      0.36% 109.37% 4.92% 797,833                     124,015                     921,848                         0.35% 108.68% 4.59%

RALI 2003‐QS6 34,531,800                       3,477,561                   851,191                        4,328,752                   0.94% 40.93% 7.99% 3,477,561                  935,802                     4,413,363                      0.99% 41.57% 7.46%

RALI 2003‐QS7 43,519,500                       2,879,596                   806,514                        3,686,110                   0.38% 62.95% 5.49% 2,879,596                  831,804                     3,711,400                      0.38% 64.40% 5.09%

RALI 2003‐QS9 15,217,500                       568,672                      214,311                        782,983                      0.69% 97.30% 4.48% 568,672                     215,306                     783,978                         0.69% 97.30% 4.13%

RAMP 2001‐RS2 4,399,014                         11,231,765                 492,746                        11,724,511                   2.00% 100.00% 6.00% 11,231,765                794,929                     12,026,694                   3.00% 102.00% 4.00%

RAMP 2002‐RS3 18,844,200                       22,155,498                 2,054,789                     24,210,287                   2.16% 70.25% 2.99% 22,155,498                2,214,804                  24,370,302                   2.26% 72.04% 2.82%

RAMP 2002‐RZ2 10,061,900                       11,376,191                 1,606,771                     12,982,962                   3.67% 78.55% 8.24% 11,376,191                1,742,006                  13,118,197                   3.78% 79.72% 7.42%

RAMP 2002‐RZ3 21,991,200                       21,050,438                 1,855,922                     22,906,360                   1.69% 69.61% 5.51% 21,050,438                2,030,353                  23,080,791                   1.76% 71.37% 5.01%

RAMP 2002‐SL1 10,692,946                       293,200                      188,894                        482,094                      0.50% 95.00% 12.00% 293,200                     249,997                     543,197                         0.60% 98.00% 10.00%

RAMP 2003‐RS10 80,556,100                       83,885,856                 5,238,297                     89,124,153                   1.35% 71.29% 6.81% 83,885,856                5,783,544                  89,669,400                   1.41% 72.97% 6.23%

RAMP 2003‐RS11 140,888,000                     89,645,064                 19,292,976                   108,938,040                 2.74% 73.95% 6.04% 89,645,064                20,923,221                110,568,285                 2.87% 74.79% 5.50%

RAMP 2003‐SL1 28,974,595                       1,392,562                   545,124                        1,937,686                   0.75% 50.00% 10.00% 1,392,562                  865,305                     2,257,867                      1.00% 55.00% 8.00%

RASC 2001‐KS2 51,174,600                       101,113,080               7,108,827                     108,221,907                 2.91% 79.93% 3.98% 101,113,080              7,659,123                  108,772,203                 3.06% 81.39% 3.73%

RASC 2001‐KS3 60,639,700                       121,518,872               10,828,074                   132,346,946                 3.41% 81.67% 2.25% 121,518,872              11,510,204                133,029,076                 3.53% 83.61% 2.09%

RASC 2002‐KS2 31,971,100                       79,880,448                 3,733,160                     83,613,608                   2.26% 77.26% 3.61% 79,880,448                3,992,289                  83,872,737                   2.34% 78.96% 3.35%

RASC 2003‐KS10 97,438,000                       45,396,460                 10,701,596                   56,098,056                   2.15% 73.17% 5.46% 45,396,460                11,505,830                56,902,290                   2.21% 74.96% 5.07%

RASC 2003‐KS11 84,476,200                       73,522,408                 8,224,917                     81,747,325                   1.78% 71.02% 4.16% 73,522,408                8,841,744                  82,364,152                   1.83% 72.97% 3.82%

RASC 2003‐KS12 83,572,900                       62,672,284                 11,640,485                   74,312,769                   2.64% 74.19% 3.88% 62,672,284                12,599,844                75,272,128                   2.76% 76.06% 3.62%

RASC 2003‐KS3 11,554,900                       19,063,186                 3,038,630                     22,101,816                   5.14% 72.64% 3.89% 19,063,186                3,266,051                  22,329,237                   5.39% 74.84% 3.76%

RASC 2003‐KS6 13,520,000                       20,004,462                 2,212,624                     22,217,086                   2.11% 88.93% 3.51% 20,004,462                2,367,126                  22,371,588                   2.21% 90.36% 3.34%

RASC 2003‐KS7 95,194,400                       40,266,224                 10,401,121                   50,667,345                   2.26% 73.57% 5.74% 40,266,224                11,381,290                51,647,514                   2.39% 75.37% 5.40%

RASC 2003‐KS8 60,280,000                       28,246,624                 7,311,108                     35,557,732                   2.22% 74.59% 4.37% 28,246,624                7,884,594                  36,131,218                   2.31% 76.44% 4.06%

RFMSI 2003‐S10 29,743,000                       518,521                      47,408                            565,929                      0.14% 20.15% 10.56% 518,521                     45,720                       564,241                         0.12% 20.52% 9.93%

RFMSI 2003‐S11 16,473,200                       355,856                      213,333                        569,189                      0.63% 96.85% 6.47% 355,856                     209,115                     564,971                         0.62% 96.02% 6.05%

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Debtor Sponsored Trusts

Non‐Monoline Trusts Only

September 2013 Distribution

LOWER RANGE HIGHER RANGE

Shelf Series Curr OB (in 000's) Cum Loss To DateLower Range ‐ Est. Loss 

Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR Cum Loss To Date

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ Est. 

Loss TotalCDR Severity CRR

RFMSI 2003‐S12 32,946,300                       1,576,319                   18,927                            1,595,245                   0.07% 18.83% 15.26% 1,576,319                  16,158                       1,592,477                      0.06% 18.02% 14.63%

RFMSI 2003‐S14 11,756,000                       1,114                           94,340                            95,454                         0.84% 44.23% 3.99% 1,114                          98,776                       99,890                           0.86% 44.98% 3.66%

RFMSI 2003‐S15 12,163,100                       36,076                        13,471                            49,547                         0.15% 32.83% 6.39% 36,076                       16,322                       52,398                           0.15% 40.13% 5.88%

RFMSI 2003‐S16 15,849,400                       79,567                        2,306                               81,872                         0.01% 68.43% 2.08% 79,567                       2,672                          82,239                           0.01% 69.63% 1.81%

RFMSI 2003‐S17 53,865,700                       454,644                      1,030,393                     1,485,037                   0.70% 46.64% 10.07% 454,644                     1,120,032                  1,574,676                      0.72% 47.77% 9.49%

RFMSI 2003‐S18 17,318,600                       32,224                        108,785                        141,010                      0.27% 97.99% 2.40% 32,224                       110,864                     143,088                         0.28% 98.06% 2.01%

RFMSI 2003‐S19 38,975,600                       717,160                      528,027                        1,245,187                   0.37% 61.81% 10.34% 717,160                     546,829                     1,263,989                      0.37% 61.45% 9.66%

RFMSI 2003‐S6 8,103,380                         22,752                        17                                  22,770                         0.00% 120.00% 10.93% 22,752                       0                                 22,753                           0.00% 120.00% 10.28%

RFMSI 2003‐S7 62,850,000                       734,738                      551,224                        1,285,961                   0.34% 46.79% 11.24% 734,738                     575,111                     1,309,848                      0.34% 47.29% 10.54%

RFMSI 2003‐S9 5,632,760                         96,178                        2,551                               98,729                         0.06% 17.34% 14.64% 96,178                       3,170                          99,348                           0.05% 22.20% 14.02%

RFMS2 1998‐HI2 ‐                                     36,874,298                 ‐                                 36,874,298                   0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36,874,298                ‐                              36,874,298                   0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

RFMS2 2002‐HI4 8,345,310                         29,426,514                 1,019,481                     30,445,995                   4.27% 112.18% 10.87% 29,426,514                1,085,504                  30,512,018                   4.46% 112.20% 9.98%

RFMS2 2002‐HI5 8,906,660                         23,183,006                 1,042,973                     24,225,979                   4.17% 111.87% 11.99% 23,183,006                1,117,854                  24,300,860                   4.36% 111.81% 10.86%

RFMS2 2002‐HS1 1,744,870                         3,813,717                   34,168                            3,847,885                   0.95% 111.65% 11.83% 3,813,717                  35,572                       3,849,289                      0.98% 111.89% 11.36%

RFMS2 2002‐HS2 2,358,680                         3,841,103                   295,469                        4,136,572                   5.18% 110.70% 8.67% 3,841,103                  304,789                     4,145,892                      5.31% 110.76% 8.20%

RFMS2 2003‐HI1 10,162,800                       21,516,042                 956,846                        22,472,888                   2.84% 111.78% 9.23% 21,516,042                1,022,489                  22,538,531                   2.97% 111.82% 8.41%

RFMS2 2003‐HI2 13,542,700                       26,120,772                 1,209,162                     27,329,934                   2.62% 109.41% 9.64% 26,120,772                1,275,156                  27,395,928                   2.70% 109.46% 8.83%

RFMS2 2003‐HI4 23,149,400                       33,091,528                 2,269,820                     35,361,348                   2.92% 110.23% 10.90% 33,091,528                2,451,552                  35,543,080                   3.07% 110.26% 9.83%

RFSC 2002‐RM1 4,174,950                         261,814                      190                                262,003                      0.01% 27.04% 14.43% 261,814                     118                             261,931                         0.01% 34.00% 14.00%

RFSC 2003‐RM1 19,661,200                       267,819                      94,108                            361,927                      0.23% 36.38% 10.91% 267,819                     103,322                     371,141                         0.23% 37.78% 10.27%

RFSC 2003‐RM2 29,451,200                       480,656                      295,912                        776,568                      0.38% 41.87% 8.96% 480,656                     294,608                     775,264                         0.37% 41.71% 8.45%

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ANNEX D

Page 83: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Non Debtor Sponsored Trust Forecasted Loss Analysis

Name Current Collat Bal Collateral Losses to DateSeller 

Percentage

Debtor Collateral 

Losses To Date

Forecasted Losses for 

Debtors Loans 

LOWER RANGE 

 Forecasted Losses 

for Debtors Loans 

HIGHER RANGE 

BAFC 2005‐3 B1 46,122,697.72             1,269,318.97                     4.30% 54,581$                          319,307$                        349,652$                    

BAFC 2005‐4 B1 70,633,534.00             1,132,495.00                     6.30% 71,347$                          716,436$                        784,520$                    

BAFC 2005‐5 B1 116,254,211.04           6,106,889.63                     16.22% 990,537$                       3,035,886$                     3,324,389$                

BAFC 2005‐6 B1 116,126,157.51           11,559,009.03                   7.32% 845,542$                       1,367,635$                     1,497,603$                

BAFC 2005‐7 XB1 226,602,473.84           15,132,022.11                   2.60% 393,433$                       948,558$                        1,038,700$                

BAFC 2005‐8 B1 165,117,351.03           12,904,064.20                   9.14% 1,179,431$                    2,429,768$                     2,660,671$                

BAFC 2006‐1 B1 133,175,040.69           12,828,598.85                   3.96% 508,013$                       849,071$                        929,759$                    

BAFC 2006‐4 B1 107,617,528.57           15,920,476.16                   15.90% 2,531,356$                    2,754,901$                     3,016,702$                

BAFC 2007‐4 SB1 374,631,864.82           110,490,119.40                 2.42% 2,673,861$                    1,459,641$                     1,598,352$                

CARR 2006‐RFC1 M1 188,518,789.66           177,453,492.52                 100.00% 177,453,493$               30,351,525$                   33,235,863$              

CARR 2007‐RFC1 M1 352,439,398.34           235,854,273.44                 100.00% 235,854,273$               56,742,743$                   62,135,066$              

GSR 2004‐10F B1 119,729,567.90           1,214,279.34                     17.47% 212,135$                       3,367,598$                     3,687,624$                

GSR 2005‐5F B1 267,976,137.60           8,039,575.23                     4.61% 370,624$                       1,988,946$                     2,177,957$                

GSR 2006‐2F B1 242,722,593.48           30,647,030.70                   1.20% 367,764$                       468,940$                        513,504$                    

GSR 2006‐4F B1 211,115,424.41           38,180,162.27                   18.88% 7,208,415$                    6,417,233$                     7,027,070$                

GSR 2007‐AR1 B1 551,503,329.33           153,290,998.52                 5.00% 7,664,550$                    4,439,602$                     4,861,502$                

GSR 2007‐OA2 B1 175,584,650.31           139,784,331.56                 5.00% 6,989,217$                    1,413,456$                     1,547,779$                

GSR 2007‐4F B1 250,572,320.52           40,678,893.35                   2.73% 1,110,534$                    1,101,341$                     1,206,002$                

HVMLT  2003‐1 B1 13,325,184.80             310,198.79                         53.17% 164,933$                       1,140,685$                     1,249,086$                

HVMLT  2003‐2 B1 52,419,897.69             2,075,474.82                     0.16% 3,321$                            13,503$                           14,787$                      

HVMLT  2004‐4 B1 18,997,613.22             4,037,526.93                     5.32% 214,796$                       162,718$                        178,182$                    

HVMLT  2007‐2 B1 438,147,007.80           473,299,029.09                 10.28% 48,655,140$                  7,251,683$                     7,940,819$                

HVMLT  2007‐7 B1 687,432,372.74           403,255,328.40                 12.06% 48,632,593$                  13,347,599$                   14,616,036$              

LXS 2006‐12N M1 541,595,693.40           452,457,102.57                 16.77% 75,877,056$                  14,622,921$                   16,012,553$              

LXS 2007‐12N 1M1 481,227,054.99           414,854,693.06                 2.73% 11,325,533$                  2,115,137$                     2,316,141$                

LXS 2007‐15N M1i 1,194,475,460.76        839,423,396.47                 15.50% 130,110,626$               29,808,135$                   32,640,834$              

LXS 2007‐2N M1 442,711,580.23           423,197,520.70                 35.47% 150,108,161$               25,281,797$                   27,684,353$              

LXS 2007‐4N M1 730,049,817.03           656,792,828.16                 14.63% 96,088,791$                  17,195,812$                   18,829,949$              

MLMI 2003‐A2 1M1 41,833,644.42             575,621.62                         5.11% 29,414$                          344,170$                        376,876$                    

MLMI 2003‐A4 M1 15,627,901.33             1,598,267.12                     11.96% 191,153$                       300,925$                        329,522$                    

SARM 2007‐6 M1 256,667,820.06           188,543,866.46                 0.75% 1,414,079$                    309,926$                        339,379$                    

SASC 2002‐4H B1 7,260,032.40                1,150,499.26                     19.86% 228,489$                       232,137$                        254,197$                    

ARMT 2005‐10 CB1 291,823,806.58           109,131,627.32                 4.50% 4,910,923$                    2,114,263$                     2,315,184$                

ARMT 2005‐11 CB1 277,803,109.02           171,982,573.12                 4.50% 7,739,216$                    2,012,684$                     2,203,951$                

ARMT 2005‐9 CB1 226,421,855.07           94,578,444.99                   9.00% 8,512,060$                    3,280,853$                     3,592,636$                

BAFC 2006‐2 B1 228,956,363.31           27,324,741.29                   0.99% 270,515$                       364,934$                        399,614$                    

BAFC 2007‐3 3B1 301,910,869.22           144,575,443.24                 1.84% 2,660,188$                    894,381$                        979,375$                    

BAFC 2007‐7 XB1 262,133,367.49           97,001,333.69                   0.71% 688,709$                       299,645$                        328,120$                    

BSABS 2004‐AC1 M1 25,982,686.10             4,917,772.69                     1.36% 66,882$                          56,892$                           62,298$                      

BSABS 2004‐AC7 M1 58,623,547.58             10,417,928.68                   2.40% 250,030$                       226,521$                        248,048$                    

BALTA  2005‐4 1B1 474,967,929.93           136,195,982.91                 0.32% 435,827$                       244,703$                        267,958$                    

CSFB 2005‐10 CB1 335,350,443.65           79,958,062.24                   4.58% 3,662,079$                    2,472,807$                     2,707,801$                

CSFB 2005‐11 CB1 204,781,429.16           48,428,055.60                   3.02% 1,462,527$                    995,688$                        1,090,310$                

CSFB 2005‐12 B1 284,518,724.58           129,779,877.73                 3.35% 4,347,626$                    1,534,552$                     1,680,382$                

CSFB 2005‐3 CB1 205,340,258.27           17,841,546.85                   9.00% 1,605,739$                    2,975,380$                     3,258,134$                

CSFB 2005‐4 CB1 186,248,487.75           13,478,507.07                   9.00% 1,213,066$                    2,698,741$                     2,955,205$                

CSFB 2005‐5 CB1 169,739,598.31           11,867,711.14                   2.54% 301,440$                       694,133$                        760,097$                    

CSFB 2005‐6 CB1 177,800,723.35           37,228,999.25                   7.63% 2,840,573$                    2,184,157$                     2,391,720$                

CSFB 2005‐8 B1 346,630,511.64           81,085,500.62                   3.39% 2,748,798$                    1,891,875$                     2,071,662$                

CSFB 2005‐9 CB1 268,676,244.50           56,479,462.48                   2.77% 1,564,481$                    1,198,215$                     1,312,083$                

CSMC 2006‐1 CB1 319,049,007.94           63,126,907.00                   0.19% 119,941$                       97,597$                           106,872$                    

CSMC 2006‐8 CB1 100,139,703.08           52,851,576.29                   2.50% 1,321,289$                    403,062$                        441,366$                    

CSMC 2006‐9 CB1 384,769,281.97           52,402,966.45                   0.09% 47,163$                          55,753$                           61,051$                      

CSMC 2007‐6 CB1 230,873,399.93           87,071,115.46                   0.49% 426,648$                       182,136$                        199,445$                    

CSMC 2007‐7 CB1 105,579,478.51           53,159,377.14                   0.21% 111,635$                       35,696$                           39,089$                      

GPMF 2006‐HE1 AX 178,750,225.91 916,315,108.20 0.44% 4,031,786$                    126,627$                        138,660$                    

GSMPS 2006‐RP2 B1 150,485,404.38 4,395,009.33 3.55% 156,023$                       860,099$                        941,835$                    

GSR 2003‐2F B1 6,324,259.93                168,313.20                         32.89% 55,358$                          334,888$                        366,713$                    

GSR 2005‐6F B1 209,893,038.63           16,656,342.52                   2.68% 446,390$                       905,646$                        991,711$                    

GSR 2005‐8F B1 257,586,313.65           27,882,335.28                   9.00% 2,509,410$                    3,732,426$                     4,087,122$                

GSR 2005‐9F 1B1 253,077,549.16           40,471,050.23                   0.42% 169,978$                       171,131$                        187,394$                    

GSR 2005‐AR3 1B1 263,202,444.06           51,928,750.67                   7.89% 4,097,178$                    3,343,434$                     3,661,164$                

GSR 2005‐AR7 1B1 541,742,306.18           55,078,809.77                   2.82% 1,553,222$                    2,459,618$                     2,693,359$                

Page 1 of 3

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Non Debtor Sponsored Trust Forecasted Loss Analysis

Name Current Collat Bal Collateral Losses to DateSeller 

Percentage

Debtor Collateral 

Losses To Date

Forecasted Losses for 

Debtors Loans 

LOWER RANGE 

 Forecasted Losses 

for Debtors Loans 

HIGHER RANGE 

GSR 2006‐3F B1 206,316,647.64           32,062,166.40                   1.45% 464,901$                       481,646$                        527,418$                    

GSR 2006‐AR1 B1 445,081,525.21           92,797,904.97                   5.00% 4,639,895$                    3,582,906$                     3,923,394$                

GSR 2007‐HEL1 A 27,476,093.65             59,353,463.35                   2.50% 1,483,837$                    110,591$                        121,101$                    

HALO 2007‐AR2 B1 165,083,926.22           59,793,616.24                   0.33% 197,319$                       87,709$                           96,044$                      

HVMLT 2006‐13 B1 58,327,757.06             28,413,406.99                   2.18% 619,412$                       204,719$                        224,173$                    

LXS 2006‐10N 1M1 382,187,689.94           315,091,243.17                 0.46% 1,449,420$                    283,048$                        309,947$                    

MASTR  2003‐2 30B1 24,350,423.66             403,626.41                         9.00% 36,326$                          352,838$                        386,368$                    

MASTR  2003‐4 B1 55,308,119.33             58,048.65                           0.38% 221$                              33,838$                           37,053$                      

MLMI 2005‐A6 B1 238,997,124.73           101,722,445.69                 5.00% 5,086,122$                    1,923,927$                     2,106,760$                

RBSGC 2007‐B 1B1 230,329,486.75           59,256,348.76                   0.11% 65,182$                          40,791$                           44,668$                      

RBSGC 2005‐A B1 127,023,989.81           17,487,597.03                   4.50% 786,942$                       920,289$                        1,007,745$                

SAIL 2006‐2 B1 209,909,319.89           358,738,849.52                 0.78% 2,798,163$                    263,604$                        288,655$                    

SAMI 2003‐AR1 B1 37,877,040.02             4,732,583.08                     100.00% 4,732,583$                    6,098,203$                     6,677,722$                

SARM 2007‐3 M1 410,080,988.69           186,136,312.24                 2.95% 5,491,021$                    1,947,680$                     2,132,770$                

SASC  2002‐9 M1 36,747,563.22             2,181,496.67                     0.80% 17,452$                          47,331$                           51,829$                      

SASC 2006‐BC2 M1 298,566,729.28           376,223,415.61                 0.90% 3,386,011$                    432,623$                        473,736$                    

BAFC 2006‐5 B1 186,498,486.14           25,870,286.61                   2.50% 646,757$                       750,656$                        821,992$                    

CSFB 2002‐34 CB1 16,539,377.44             6,243,406.45                     9.00% 561,907$                       239,656$                        262,430$                    

CSFB 2002‐AR33 CB1 7,345,786.47                1,832,263.04                     9.00% 164,904$                       106,440$                        116,556$                    

FMRMT  2003‐A A 371,000.00 0.00 100.00% ‐$                               59,731$                           65,407$                      

GSMPS 2004‐4 B1 207,260,266.89 8,345,613.22 9.00% 751,105$                       3,003,201$                     3,288,599$                

GSMPS 2005‐LT1 M1 17,666,468.76 13,584,197.07 3.44% 467,296$                       97,844$                           107,142$                    

GSMPS 2005‐RP2 B1 231,817,456.40 7,846,283.19 2.36% 185,172$                       880,814$                        964,518$                    

GSMPS 2005‐RP3 B1 243,809,547.73 7,421,963.37 2.23% 165,510$                       875,349$                        958,535$                    

GSMPS 2006‐RP1 B1 204,967,165.37 2,802,580.36 5.00% 140,129$                       1,649,986$                     1,806,786$                

GSR 2005‐7F B1 89,474,278.65             5,226,284.39                     9.00% 470,366$                       1,296,482$                     1,419,688$                

LMT 2005‐1 B1 314,801,584.26           44,031,767.40                   1.37% 603,235$                       694,358$                        760,343$                    

SASC  05‐RF2 B1 46,337,074.48 998,298.00 9.00% 89,847$                          671,424$                        735,230$                    

SASC  05‐RF4 B1 65,857,439.58 2,535,253.21 9.00% 228,173$                       954,274$                        1,044,960$                

SASC  05‐RF6 B1 31,434,360.49 1,490,600.68 9.00% 134,154$                       455,484$                        498,769$                    

SASC 2001‐8A B1i 3,630,674.96                281,888.42                         9.00% 25,370$                          52,608$                           57,608$                      

SASC 2002‐12 A6 97,226,745.85 1,069,268.39 9.00% 96,234$                          1,408,816$                     1,542,697$                

SASC 2005‐RF1 B1 52,953,753.51 1,542,184.32 9.00% 138,797$                       767,300$                        840,217$                    

SASC  2005‐S7 M1 68,433,230.85             156,172,007.09                 9.00% 14,055,481$                  991,598$                        1,085,830$                

SASI 1993‐6 B1 1,751,608.03                3,969,649.23                     4.50% 178,634$                       12,690$                           13,896$                      

TMTS 2005‐11 1B1 66,492,102.17 236,911,559.96 4.50% 10,661,020$                  481,735$                        527,515$                    

TMTS 2005‐13SL B1 41,194,133.87 207,622,651.03 4.50% 9,343,019$                    298,451$                        326,814$                    

GSAA  2005‐9 B1 187,166,225.22           68,198,725.33                   19.48% 13,285,112$                  5,870,057$                     6,427,895$                

LUM  2006‐3 1M1 171,265,032.41           156,450,712.16                 28.35% 44,353,777$                  7,817,136$                     8,560,006$                

LUM  2006‐4 B1 93,250,428.28             110,100,804.37                 11.87% 13,068,965$                  1,782,081$                     1,951,434$                

LUM  2006‐5 B1 135,120,732.80           119,719,056.93                 51.86% 62,086,303$                  11,281,852$                   12,353,978$              

SARM 2004‐4 B1 211,455,292.52           14,334,860.08                   0.06% 8,601$                            20,427$                           22,368$                      

SEMT 2005‐2 B1 41,285,244.15             1,700,864.02                     14.65% 249,177$                       973,774$                        1,066,313$                

ARMT 2004‐5 CB1 139,809,733.62           38,841,928.74                   4.50% 1,747,887$                    1,012,922$                     1,109,181$                

ARMT 2005‐1 CB1 131,026,190.77           47,799,123.49                   4.50% 2,150,961$                    949,285$                        1,039,496$                

BSABS 2007‐SD2 1B1 126,945,319.11           66,297,117.34                   0.01% 6,630$                            2,044$                             2,238$                        

BSABS 2007‐SD3 M1 163,591,733.89           101,154,998.56                 0.71% 718,200$                       187,002$                        204,773$                    

BALTA  2006‐4 1B1 1,188,978,495.84        1,268,938,617.75             0.19% 2,410,983$                    363,709$                        398,272$                    

BALTA  2006‐5 1B1 301,710,595.75           335,916,414.84                 0.20% 671,833$                       97,151$                           106,383$                    

BALTA  2006‐8 1B1 372,575,295.91           334,951,789.44                 0.52% 1,741,749$                    311,920$                        341,562$                    

BSSLT 2007‐SV1A M1 252,944,594.77 443,417,142.35 2.50% 11,085,429$                  1,018,102$                     1,114,853$                

GSMPS 2005‐RP1 B1 237,765,150.17 6,370,646.80 1.35% 86,004$                          516,783$                        565,893$                    

GSR 2006‐AR2 1B1 312,256,066.25           66,254,679.05                   5.00% 3,312,734$                    2,513,661$                     2,752,537$                

MALT 2004‐12 B1 102,976,582.62           7,773,956.81                     2.50% 194,349$                       414,481$                        453,869$                    

MALT  2004‐4 B1 102,935,784.12           5,411,522.17                     2.50% 135,288$                       414,317$                        453,689$                    

MALT  2004‐6 B1 123,236,768.29           7,502,240.72                     4.50% 337,601$                       892,850$                        977,699$                    

MALT  2004‐7 B1 133,077,768.93           7,196,677.51                     4.50% 323,850$                       964,148$                        1,055,772$                

MALT  2004‐8 B1 97,366,165.39             7,672,622.47                     4.50% 345,268$                       705,418$                        772,454$                    

MALT  2005‐3 B1 125,812,710.72           10,502,859.71                   2.50% 262,571$                       506,396$                        554,520$                    

MALT  2005‐4 B1 69,024,119.83             12,647,354.06                   4.50% 569,131$                       500,080$                        547,603$                    

MALT  2005‐5 B1 116,712,304.30           18,236,215.02                   2.50% 455,905$                       469,767$                        514,409$                    

MALT  2006‐1 B1 101,688,520.15           22,995,242.18                   0.72% 165,566$                       117,877$                        129,079$                    

MALT 2007‐HF1 B1 83,629,002.26 48,146,776.73 4.80% 2,311,045$                    646,285$                        707,702$                    

Page 2 of 3

Page 85: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Non Debtor Sponsored Trust Forecasted Loss Analysis

Name Current Collat Bal Collateral Losses to DateSeller 

Percentage

Debtor Collateral 

Losses To Date

Forecasted Losses for 

Debtors Loans 

LOWER RANGE 

 Forecasted Losses 

for Debtors Loans 

HIGHER RANGE 

MARP  2005‐1 B1 93,190,654.67 2,290,006.22 9.00% 206,101$                       1,350,333$                     1,478,656$                

MARP  2005‐2 B1 131,510,321.99 3,688,057.92 0.89% 32,824$                          188,441$                        206,349$                    

MARP  2006‐1 B1 98,051,734.13 2,738,868.61 0.17% 4,656$                            26,837$                           29,387$                      

MARP  2006‐2 B1 78,129,508.40 2,614,919.56 4.42% 115,579$                       555,985$                        608,821$                    

MASTR  2002‐7 B1 14,805,774.06             591,786.94                         5.81% 34,383$                          138,495$                        151,656$                    

MASTR  2004‐1 B1 64,402,369.38             282,841.71                         9.00% 25,456$                          933,190$                        1,021,872$                

MASTR 2004‐10 B1 44,067,883.52             1,050,096.55                     9.00% 94,509$                          638,544$                        699,225$                    

MASTR 2004‐11 B1 56,791,450.69             1,560,433.21                     8.04% 125,459$                       735,131$                        804,992$                    

MASTR  2004‐3 B1 31,533,417.85             126,042.44                         9.00% 11,344$                          456,919$                        500,341$                    

MASTR  2004‐4 B1 23,982,657.04             548,503.73                         2.65% 14,535$                          102,322$                        112,046$                    

MASTR  2004‐5 B1 25,717,911.09             695,297.66                         3.29% 22,875$                          136,225$                        149,171$                    

MASTR  2004‐6 B1 72,833,505.09             406,535.99                         2.80% 11,383$                          328,333$                        359,535$                    

MASTR  2004‐9 30B1 70,024,324.32             1,316,768.33                     5.95% 78,348$                          670,798$                        734,545$                    

MSSTR 2005‐2 B1 30,763,034.12             974,046.97                         1.37% 13,344$                          67,854$                           74,302$                      

SACO 2007‐1 B1 32,159,533.01             165,850,750.85                 5.00% 8,292,538$                    258,884$                        283,486$                    

SEMT 2004‐10 B1 74,785,297.02             5,930,963.12                     4.50% 266,893$                       541,819$                        593,309$                    

SEMT 2004‐11 B1 92,260,808.38             3,452,979.83                     2.90% 100,136$                       430,766$                        471,702$                    

SEMT 2004‐12 B1 73,390,264.41             4,125,968.69                     3.10% 127,905$                       366,291$                        401,100$                    

SEMT  2004‐4 B1 51,691,737.27             3,614,964.97                     1.99% 71,938$                          165,615$                        181,354$                    

SEMT  2004‐5 B1 62,109,278.03             2,981,797.87                     4.50% 134,181$                       449,982$                        492,744$                    

SEMT  2004‐6 B1 68,571,799.65             4,515,964.90                     4.19% 189,219$                       462,579$                        506,538$                    

SEMT  2004‐7 B1 96,288,490.72             3,726,487.99                     4.41% 164,338$                       683,658$                        748,627$                    

SEMT  2004‐8 B1 83,748,130.83             4,425,869.66                     3.88% 171,724$                       523,158$                        572,874$                    

SEMT  2004‐9 B1 88,217,333.73             4,194,499.50                     4.50% 188,752$                       639,135$                        699,872$                    

SEMT  2005‐1 B1 54,122,801.65             3,113,942.36                     4.50% 140,127$                       392,120$                        429,383$                    

SEMT  2005‐3 B1 56,109,354.53             3,010,209.45                     4.50% 135,459$                       406,512$                        445,144$                    

SEMT  2005‐4 1B1 63,201,958.30             990,812.32                         2.35% 23,284$                          239,125$                        261,849$                    

SEMT  2007‐1 B1 266,670,302.01           54,148,315.15                   1.66% 898,862$                       712,703$                        780,432$                    

SEMT  2007‐2 1B1 471,810,637.03           36,561,138.98                   2.50% 914,028$                       1,899,038$                     2,079,505$                

SEMT  2007‐3 1B1 318,436,503.08           36,315,480.38                   2.50% 907,887$                       1,281,707$                     1,403,509$                

SEMT  2007‐4 B1 79,653,463.36             10,154,058.02                   2.50% 253,851$                       320,605$                        351,073$                    

FNR 2002‐66 A1 72,889,552.08 0.00 4.50% ‐$                               528,085$                        578,269$                    

LMT 2006‐7 B1 295,490,128.27           128,870,358.42                 2.45% 3,157,324$                    1,165,561$                     1,276,325$                

SASC 2008‐RF1 B1 61,908,177.98 3,718,569.58 5.00% 185,928$                       498,361$                        545,721$                    

Page 3 of 3

Page 86: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ANNEX E

Page 87: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Pre 2004 Defect Rate Analysis

Shelf / Series Year VintageSince 

Issue Mth

Deal 

Count Original Pool Balance   Current Pool Balance 

90+ Day & FC & 

REO Delq 

% Curr Bal

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 11 2,790,880,068$                  1,995,086,546$                 0.00%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 8 4,057,362,334$                  3,057,866,905$                 0.00%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 1 199,421,312$                     76,342,036$                      0.00%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 2 780,001,352$                     221,155,588$                    0.00%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 4 692,917,501$                     477,921,310$                    0.13%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 9 1,823,919,708$                  1,479,403,124$                 0.10%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 8 3,665,732,589$                  1,793,076,823$                 0.11%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 2 214,317,765$                     166,142,450$                    0.13%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 5 1,014,182,335$                  685,091,255$                    0.11%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 12 3,126,622,483$                  1,373,978,543$                 0.05%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 8 1,809,165,990$                  1,099,656,041$                 0.08%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 21 8,628,974,031$                  5,499,682,637$                 0.12%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 12 4,102,984,959$                  2,688,786,040$                 0.39%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 3 514,006,874$                     377,481,588$                    0.24%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 14 6,661,907,841$                  5,102,859,658$                 0.28%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 14 5,701,209,991$                  3,610,204,790$                 0.82%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 16 4,346,273,626$                  3,029,452,305$                 0.86%

RAMP RZ ‐ ARM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 1 125,000,140$                     97,778,067$                      1.10%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 12 3,061,833,143$                  2,125,993,789$                 1.60%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 5 3,305,001,828$                  2,653,618,153$                 1.41%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 1 175,000,110$                     115,550,205$                    2.51%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 8 4,375,000,775$                  3,513,908,518$                 2.28%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 4 1,890,005,063$                  1,466,742,553$                 2.48%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 11 6,030,006,620$                  4,620,294,185$                 2.62%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 4 890,004,267$                     642,168,114$                    2.72%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 11 9,925,011,602$                  7,468,368,229$                 4.50%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 5 3,450,001,931$                  2,750,984,965$                 5.30%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 11 7,035,010,545$                  5,569,704,088$                 5.55%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 7 2,862,343,599$                  1,933,227,693$                 5.61%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 7 8,050,009,344$                  6,486,375,932$                 5.93%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 5 2,450,005,810$                  2,004,796,337$                 8.24%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 3 892,170,872$                     593,954,111$                    7.20%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 4 475,133,800$                     341,382,277$                    10.44%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 3 2,475,000,871$                  1,969,344,779$                 7.66%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 5 3,850,008,581$                  3,217,912,914$                 9.16%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2002 Pre‐2004 12 6 893,147,154$                     687,667,220$                    8.67%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 4 3,750,002,373$                  3,003,774,055$                 8.78%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2000 Pre‐2004 12 4 600,060,614$                     391,394,531$                    12.49%

RALI QA ‐ ARM 2003 Pre‐2004 12 5  $                 2,422,605,271   $                2,144,218,614  17.45%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2001 Pre‐2004 12 3 449,775,137$                     320,782,831$                    15.94%

RFMSII HS ‐ CES 2003 Pre‐2004 12 3 1,225,000,337$                  811,465,513$                    0.11%

RFMSII HS ‐ CES 2002 Pre‐2004 12 3 960,001,568$                     490,852,687$                    0.24%

RFMSII HS ‐ HELOC 2003 Pre‐2004 12 4 940,000,558$                     572,476,529$                    0.26%

RFMSII HS ‐ CES 2001 Pre‐2004 12 3 985,001,268$                     625,420,196$                    0.28%

RFMSII HS ‐ HELOC 2002 Pre‐2004 12 1 205,000,035$                     95,191,992$                      0.31%

RFMSII HS ‐ HELOC 2001 Pre‐2004 12 1 117,000,027$                     70,037,702$                      0.32%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2003 Pre‐2004 12 4 1,042,007,690$                  859,022,067$                    0.76%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2000 Pre‐2004 12 5 2,636,318,548$                  2,340,431,633$                 0.81%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2001 Pre‐2004 12 4 1,336,517,941$                  1,155,421,017$                 0.86%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2002 Pre‐2004 12 5 1,710,003,446$                  1,403,874,560$                 0.88%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2003 Pre‐2004 No Sheet

TOTAL Pre‐2004 95,278,323,692$               3.41%

Page 1 of 3

Page 88: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Pre 2004 Defect Rate Analysis

Shelf / Series Year VintageSince 

Issue Mth

Deal 

Count Original Pool Balance   Current Pool Balance 

90+ Day & FC & 

REO Delq 

% Curr Bal

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 6 868,881,829$                     744,384,875$                    0.00%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2004 2004‐2007 12 1 250,052,758$                     204,860,794$                    0.00%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 2 386,415,265$                     340,051,174$                    0.00%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 2 419,584,468$                     341,067,256$                    0.00%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 1 97,351,539$                        83,271,255$                      0.50%

RFMSI S ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 3 146,222,744$                     123,139,820$                    0.38%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 7 2,502,195,211$                  2,067,961,424$                 0.06%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 8 2,441,753,199$                  2,243,349,920$                 0.12%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 5 2,676,963,213$                  2,283,344,294$                 0.13%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 12 6,380,807,461$                  5,534,485,759$                 0.24%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 5 702,581,251$                     590,128,321$                    0.13%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 3 338,991,135$                     291,832,118$                    0.30%

RALI QS ‐ 15 Yr FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 4 446,277,599$                     378,390,618$                    0.42%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 12 3,662,371,110$                  2,822,432,158$                 0.42%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 4 1,699,516,781$                  1,425,857,835$                 1.04%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 16 5,762,944,371$                  4,817,911,156$                 0.66%

RALI QA ‐ ARM 2004 2004‐2007 12 6  $                 2,222,050,021   $                1,585,675,851  0.51%

RALI QO ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 5 3,708,889,469$                  3,028,072,258$                 0.42%

RALI QA ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 13 6,380,157,493$                  4,919,610,442$                 0.77%

RFMSI S ‐30 Yr FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 9 4,051,078,712$                  3,787,295,984$                 1.17%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 12 2,290,003,927$                  1,857,193,279$                 1.57%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 9 1,570,722,582$                  1,280,104,412$                 1.88%

RALI QH ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 1 340,487,638$                     317,106,521$                    3.28%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 4 915,001,304$                     716,628,397$                    1.45%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2004 2004‐2007 12 12 4,175,005,102$                  3,211,323,198$                 1.69%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 12 1,440,489,275$                  1,193,916,665$                 2.69%

RALI QO ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 10 10,101,365,345$                8,929,712,386$                 2.70%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2005 2004‐2007 12 4 308,114,946$                     262,183,722$                    2.44%

RAMP RZ ‐ ARM 2004 2004‐2007 12 4 685,017,067$                     515,459,652$                    1.97%

RFMSI SA ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 4 1,474,619,663$                  1,317,036,207$                 3.07%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 18 12,312,652,224$                10,122,196,185$               3.49%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2004 2004‐2007 12 12 7,800,004,501$                  5,619,699,191$                 3.13%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 5 689,737,543$                     619,996,187$                    3.94%

RAMP RZ ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 4 1,007,295,593$                  824,836,869$                    3.55%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 9 1,527,435,360$                  1,290,436,374$                 5.41%

RALI QA ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 11 5,554,418,370$                  4,504,963,952$                 6.28%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 9 5,464,282,280$                  4,103,626,011$                 4.98%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2004 2004‐2007 12 12 8,040,021,691$                  6,197,378,136$                 5.27%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2006 2004‐2007 12 6 1,687,209,733$                  1,362,035,662$                 5.24%

RAMP RZ ‐ FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 1 99,886,968$                        90,061,248$                      6.32%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2005 2004‐2007 12 12 7,620,783,002$                  5,680,409,729$                 6.10%

RALI QO ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 5 2,211,048,783$                  2,084,083,430$                 8.00%

RALI QS ‐ 30 Yr FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 11 7,599,672,338$                  6,867,864,734$                 7.07%

RALI QH ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 9 4,232,718,503$                  4,087,541,897$                 7.47%

RASC KS ‐ FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 4 804,057,336$                     731,093,762$                    9.00%

RAMP RZ ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 5 2,297,037,625$                  1,926,433,207$                 10.06%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 6 2,753,023,961$                  2,154,863,598$                 10.55%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2006 2004‐2007 12 9 5,762,450,629$                  4,582,615,995$                 11.35%

RAMP RZ ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 1 240,449,694$                     194,726,645$                    14.55%

RAMP RS ‐ FRM 2007 2004‐2007 12 2 542,044,050$                     476,377,192$                    15.45%

RALI QA ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 5 2,422,605,271$                  2,144,218,614$                 17.45%

RAMP RS ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 2 341,002,371$                     303,018,201$                    18.63%

RASC KS ‐ ARM 2007 2004‐2007 12 4 2,204,033,433$                  1,932,292,683$                 20.40%

Page 2 of 3

Page 89: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Pre 2004 Defect Rate Analysis

Shelf / Series Year VintageSince 

Issue Mth

Deal 

Count Original Pool Balance   Current Pool Balance 

90+ Day & FC & 

REO Delq 

% Curr Bal

RFMSII HSA ‐ HELOC 2005 2004‐2007 12 1 100,973,458$                     59,445,355$                      1.56%

RFMSII HS ‐ HELOC 2005 2004‐2007 12 2 525,000,326$                     296,993,085$                    0.72%

RFMSII HS ‐ HELOC 2004 2004‐2007 12 3 720,000,109$                     430,847,271$                    0.26%

RFMSII HSA ‐ HELOC 2006 2004‐2007 12 4 1,044,310,329$                  673,917,056$                    2.22%

RFMSII HSA ‐ HELOC 2007 2004‐2007 12 2 784,105,449$                     581,319,792$                    5.51%

RFMSII HS ‐ CES 2004 2004‐2007 12 2 635,000,276$                     438,990,801$                    0.31%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2004 2004‐2007 12 3 730,015,540$                     585,009,719$                    0.79%

RFMSII HS ‐ CES 2005 2004‐2007 12 2 900,000,035$                     694,318,106$                    0.25%

RFMSII HSA ‐ CES 2005 2004‐2007 12 1 178,529,931$                     129,571,020$                    1.11%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2005 2004‐2007 12 3 705,002,822$                     576,387,924$                    0.78%

RFMSII HSA ‐ CES 2006 2004‐2007 12 2 763,769,849$                     576,499,330$                    0.71%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2006 2004‐2007 12 5 1,204,469,744$                  1,059,274,961$                 1.08%

RFMSII HSA ‐ CES 2007 2004‐2007 12 2 1,891,463,190$                  1,501,889,357$                 7.31%

RFMSII HI ‐ 125 CLTV 2007 2004‐2007 12 1 257,532,198$                     236,395,082$                    1.45%

TOTAL 2004‐2007 132,955,416,113$            4.23%

TOTAL COMBINED 228,233,739,805$            3.89%

Ratio: 80.7%

2004‐2007: 43.5%

Pre‐2004: 35.1%

Page 3 of 3

Page 90: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ANNEX F

Page 91: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

GMACM 2004‐HE1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE1 A2 ‐                            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE1 A3 97,747,569            ‐                        920,856                     ‐$                                  3,287,780$                    FGICGMACM 2004‐HE1 VPRN 67,380,121            ‐                        634,773                     ‐$                                  2,135,951$                    FGICGMACM 2004‐HE1 Total 167,920,024         72,368,422                ‐                        1,555,630                  ‐$                                  12,880,947               85,249,369$           2.00% 99.00% 8.00% 5,423,731$                    20,399,000          92,767,422          3.00% 100.00% 6.00% FGIC 1.66%GMACM 2004‐HE3 Total 168,811,827         80,546,315                18,691,890          ‐                              2,742,524$                      7,696,057                  88,242,372$           2.00% 90.00% 10.00% 6,652,133$                    11,207,542          91,753,857          3.00% 95.00% 7.00% FSA 0.00%GMACM 2004‐HE3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FSAGMACM 2004‐HE3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FSAGMACM 2004‐HE3 A3 98,334,904            11,098,742          ‐                              1,638,809$                      3,980,302$                    FSAGMACM 2004‐HE3 A1VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FSAGMACM 2004‐HE3 A2VN 67,275,321            7,593,148            ‐                              1,103,715$                      2,671,831$                    FSAGMACM 2004‐HE3 A3VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FSAGMACM 2004‐HE4 Total 179,534,395         103,103,306              36,140,625          ‐                              3,380,461$                      11,459,858               114,563,165$         2.00% 93.00% 10.00% 8,256,622$                    19,048,742          122,152,048        3.00% 99.00% 7.00% MBIA 0.00%GMACM 2004‐HE4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE4 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE4 A3 94,228,042            18,968,289          ‐                              1,792,040$                      4,388,692$                    MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE4 A1VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE4 A2VN 85,306,353            17,172,336          ‐                              1,588,421$                      3,867,930$                    MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE4 A3VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐HE5 Total 44,349,329            17,112,486                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,164,245                  20,276,730$           1.59% 104.70% 8.66% ‐$                                 3,377,805            20,490,291          1.66% 104.94% 8.11% FGIC 6.40%GMACM 2004‐HE5 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE5 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2004‐HE5 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE5 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE5 A5 35,634,099            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE5 A6 5,877,239              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HE5 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 Total 25,382,300            37,300,736                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,127,370                  39,428,106$           2.26% 109.74% 9.19% ‐$                                 2,240,111            39,540,847          2.33% 109.74% 8.42% FGIC 12.40%RFMSII 2004‐HI2 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 A5 35,634,099            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 A6 5,877,239              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI3 Total 24,294,581            32,141,006                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,563,701                  33,704,707$           1.73% 109.83% 11.18% ‐$                                 1,672,028            33,813,034          1.79% 109.83% 10.14% FGIC 13.64%RFMSII 2004‐HI3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI3 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI3 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HI3 A5 20,980,285            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HLTV1 Total 16,536,830            20,046,152                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  956,082                     21,002,233$           1.23% 102.57% 10.96% ‐$                                 1,069,815            21,115,967          1.31% 102.76% 9.77% FGIC 17.29%

GMACM 2004‐HLTV1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HLTV1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HLTV1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2004‐HLTV1 A4 13,677,385            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HS1 Total 20,680,200            13,037,183                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  667,857                     13,705,040$           1.03% 108.97% 13.76% ‐$                                 725,331               13,762,514          1.09% 108.93% 12.87% FGIC 11.00%/12.40%RFMSII 2004‐HS1 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI6 2,186,542              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI4 2,848,384              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HS1 AI5 7,300,000              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HS1 AII 5,064,106              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2004‐HS2 Total 32,502,285            19,130,618                1,675,855            ‐                              707,751$                         1,729,401                  20,860,019$           1.53% 105.79% 12.13% 745,470$                        1,815,032            20,945,650          1.56% 105.90% 11.30% MBIA 0%/1.39%RFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI5 17,980,425            927,091               ‐                              682,232$                         717,976$                        MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AI6 1,636,052              84,357                 ‐                              25,519$                           27,494$                          MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS2 AII 11,636,809            664,407               ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSII 2004‐HS3 Total 13,987,300            10,353,150                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  741,183                     11,094,333$           1.22% 102.53% 11.05% ‐$                                 794,774               11,147,924          1.28% 102.62% 10.30% FGIC 1.35%RFMSII 2004‐HS3 A 12,600,282            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRASC 2004‐KS4 AI6 8,092,111              43,618                 ‐                              44,335$                           61,030$                          AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 AI4 9,595,465              51,721                 ‐                              93$                                   835$                                Ambac

Page 1 of 22

Page 92: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RASC 2004‐KS4 AI5 29,700,000            160,088               ‐                              1,356,045$                      1,698,438$                    AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 A2A 14,373,704            77,477                 830,783 429,707$                         520,665$                        AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 A2B1 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 A2B2 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 A2B3 17,774,603            95,808                 981,150 3,742,439$                      4,224,809$                    AmbacRASC 2004‐KS4 Total 76,934,910            52,487,248                428,712               1,811,933 5,572,619$                      7,846,870                  60,334,118$           1.99% 66.72% 4.45% 6,505,777$                    8,586,723            61,039,983          2.10% 68.36% 4.13% Ambac 3.15%/0%RASC 2004‐KS7 Total 69,362,406            44,466,644                ‐                        4,248,427.00 7,990,972$                      10,232,873               54,699,517$           2.79% 70.54% 4.20% 8,824,581$                    11,025,110          55,453,990          2.92% 71.93% 3.90% FGIC 0%/0%RASC 2004‐KS7 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 AI2 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 AI3 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  FGICRASC 2004‐KS7 AI4 11,634,081            ‐                        50,958 122,605$                         193,290$                        FGICRASC 2004‐KS7 AI5 21,114,184            ‐                        85,816 3,393,952$                      3,821,586$                    FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 AI6 6,029,235              ‐                        

28,107

134,658$                          174,639$                         FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 A2A 16,086,883            ‐                        

1,984,380

2,123,503$                      2,257,616$                     FGICRASC 2004‐KS7 A2B1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 A2B2 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS7 A2B3 16,834,791            ‐                        

2,099,166

2,216,254$                      2,377,450$                     FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 Total 53,596,000            33,635,636                ‐                        3,988,990 3,037,370$                      8,401,285                  42,036,921$           2.62% 74.66% 3.05% 3,632,007$                    8,991,522            42,627,158          2.73% 76.17% 2.80% FGIC 0%/0%RASC 2004‐KS9 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS9 AI3 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AI4 5,174,464              ‐                        133,019 ‐$                                  260$                                FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS9 AI5 17,875,973            ‐                        

424,027

2,038,987$                      2,282,852$                     FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AI6 5,947,705              ‐                        161,054 68,261$                           95,077$                          FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AII1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RASC 2004‐KS9 AII2 ‐                          ‐                         ‐$                                   ‐$                                  FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AII3 11,158,449            ‐                        1,453,729 430,766$                         574,561$                        FGICRASC 2004‐KS9 AII4 13,948,062            ‐                        1,817,161 499,356$                         679,258$                        FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI6B 21,746,752            ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII1 19,225,889            ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

Page 2 of 22

Page 93: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI6A 16,886,053            ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII2 8,797,661              ‐                         ‐                                1,001,258$                      1,164,109$                     AmbacRAMP 2004‐RS1 MI1 8,099,314              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI7 7,123,967              ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MI2 4,198,266              ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MI3 944,383                 ‐                        2,260,304                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII3 587,730                 ‐                        1,448,912                  587,730$                         587,730$                        Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AI5 ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  AmbacRAMP 2004‐RS1 MI4 ‐                          ‐                        5,432,345                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AIIA ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 AIIB ‐                          ‐                         ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII4 ‐                          ‐                         2,789,984                    ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII5 ‐                          ‐                        2,966,501                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 MII6 ‐                          ‐                        6,194,908                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS1 Total 87,343,300            81,504,648                ‐                        21,092,955                1,588,988$                      7,229,517                  88,734,165$           1.71% 68.02% 5.92% 1,751,839$                    8,034,466            89,539,114          1.83% 69.45% 5.53% Ambac 25.13%

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI6 9,280,347              45,652                 171,506 360,470$                         450,937$                        Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI1 ‐                          ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI2 ‐                          ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI3 ‐                          ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI4 ‐                          ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

Page 3 of 22

Page 94: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAMP 2004‐RS5 AI5 55,684,418            273,921               851,683 7,722,679$                      8,834,106$                    Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 MII1 25,949,117            ‐                                623,596$                          692,587$                         Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 MII2 8,584,993              ‐                                4,281,816$                      4,537,161$                     AmbacRAMP 2004‐RS5 MII3 2,101,300              ‐                              2,101,300$                      2,101,300$                    Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 MII4 1,897,431             

1,113,107

1,897,431$                      1,897,431$                     Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 A2A ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 A2B1 ‐                          ‐                                ‐$                                   ‐$                                  Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 A2B2 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 A2B3 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 MII5 ‐                          2,941,033 ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS5 Total 100,487,000         72,405,816                319,573               5,077,329 16,987,291$                    14,771,337               87,177,153$           2.76% 67.36% 4.81% 18,513,521$                  16,523,008          88,928,824          2.95% 69.86% 4.49% Ambac 0.00%RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI4 15,648,379            ‐                        863,731                     495,563$                         560,586$                        FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI5 53,278,528            ‐                        2,051,472                  10,819,022$                    11,637,422$                  FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 AI6 8,695,475              ‐                        525,380                     562,938$                         622,147$                        FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 A2A 17,693,238            ‐                        2,016,555                  2,515,792$                      2,663,273$                    FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 A2B1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 A2B2 12,537,764            ‐                        2,534,376                  1,555,811$                      1,651,965$                    FGIC

RAMP 2004‐RS7 A3 23,482,583            ‐                        565,015                     1,171,417$                      1,366,559$                    FGICRAMP 2004‐RS7 Total 128,740,313         81,547,166                ‐                        8,556,529                  17,120,543$                    20,764,468               102,311,634$         2.90% 71.09% 4.79% 18,501,951$                  22,285,082          103,777,658        3.04% 71.84% 4.46% FGIC 0.00%

RAMP 2004‐RS9 MII1 29,376,197            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI3 ‐                            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI4 5,341,529                38,518                 173,576                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI5 36,420,808              262,630               927,128                     2,225,305$                      2,599,331$                    Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AI6 9,022,853                65,064                 285,293                     59,796$                           79,293$                          Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 MII2 10,431,546            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 MII3 5,107,686              ‐                        ‐                              3,646,915$                      4,356,373$                    AmbacRAMP 2004‐RS9 MII4 1,652,275              ‐                        3,555,945                  1,652,275$                      1,652,275$                    Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AII1 ‐                            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AII2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 AII3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 MII5 ‐                          ‐                        4,506,631                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

RAMP 2004‐RS9 Total 95,231,600            89,536,504                366,211               9,448,573                  7,584,291$                      9,090,644                  98,627,148$           2.09% 68.75% 7.49% 8,687,272$                    10,173,097          99,709,601          2.18% 70.77% 6.69% Ambac 0.00%RAMP 2004‐RZ2 Total 54,656,300            29,608,290                ‐                        4,797,309                  7,085,430$                      5,110,705                  34,718,995$           2.23% 66.27% 8.24% 7,506,209$                    5,640,104            35,248,394          2.31% 67.97% 7.50% FGIC 0%/0.52%RAMP 2004‐RZ2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI6 8,947,673              ‐                        1,271,248                  190,081$                         227,189$                        FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI4 12,406,553            ‐                        1,309,854                  166,742$                         207,430$                        FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AI5 26,683,793            ‐                        2,216,207                  6,728,606$                      7,071,590$                    FGICRAMP 2004‐RZ2 AII 7,873,710              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1AV 33,647,388 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

Page 4 of 22

Page 95: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2AV 13,122,082 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A4 11,560,765            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A7 4,278,748 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A6 3,308,683 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A8 2,476,127 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A3 1,706,734 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1M1 1,696,570 ‐                        ‐                              115$                                 123$                                MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A2 1,014,237 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A8 692,364                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1M2 589,516 ‐                        ‐                              271,697$                         277,132$                        MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A3 18,909,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2M1 151,415 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1M3 135,078 ‐                        164,815                     130,629$                         130,711$                        MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2M2 60,554                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2M3 45,391                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2B3 30,299                   ‐                        351                             19,900$                           19,746$                          MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2B1 30,267                   ‐                        ‐                              1,352$                             1,098$                            MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2B2 15,124                   ‐                        ‐                              4,605$                             4,371$                            MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1A7 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 2A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1B1 ‐                          ‐                        314,252                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1B2 ‐                          ‐                        219,708                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 1B3 ‐                          ‐                        256,701                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐S4 Total 47,036,800            950,675                      ‐                        955,827                     428,297$                         272,246                     1,222,921$             0.15% 57.92% 8.00% 433,181$                        273,730               1,224,405            0.15% 55.96% 7.49% MBIA 7.20%

GMACM 2004‐VFT Total 101,305,729         31,316,190                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  8,561,489                  39,877,678$           2.00% 95.00% 10.00% ‐$                                 14,404,161          45,511,751          3.00% 98.00% 7.00% MBIA 22.26%

GMACM 2004‐VFT A1 78,757,785            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAMP 2005‐EFC7 AI1 ‐                          FGICRAMP 2005‐EFC7 AI2 ‐                          FGICRAMP 2005‐EFC7 AI3 37,671,785              3,587,505            9,179,882                  FGICRAMP 2005‐EFC7 AI4 58,068,756              5,529,920            9,085,080                  9,124,934$                      11,219,860$                  FGICRAMP 2005‐EFC7 A2 32,832,436              3,126,651            8,267,560                  2,730,108$                      3,361,785$                    FGICRAMP 2005‐EFC7 Total 128,609,888         143,956,196              12,244,076          26,532,522                11,855,042$                    32,526,320               176,482,516$         3.99% 65.62% 1.59% 14,581,645$                  34,970,114          178,918,978        4.24% 67.04% 1.48% FGIC 0.00%RASC 2005‐EMX5 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRASC 2005‐EMX5 A2 29,501,252            8,311,029            12,503,475                ‐$                                  12,991$                          FGICRASC 2005‐EMX5 A3 34,155,212            9,622,132            9,048,338                  4,926,903$                      5,869,726$                    FGICRASC 2005‐EMX5 Total 65,022,000            101,494,616              17,933,161          21,551,813                4,926,903$                      20,289,661               121,784,277$         4.35% 87.44% 2.86% 5,882,717$                    21,362,556          122,857,172        4.46% 88.65% 2.57% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2005‐HE1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE1 A2 106,178,190         6,174,990            13,019,543                1,681,193$                      4,416,170$                    FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE1 A3 90,924,911            5,287,908            11,149,190                1,439,677$                      3,781,755$                    FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE1 A1VN 11,387,036            662,234               1,396,276                  180,299$                         473,610$                        FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE1 A2VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE1 A3VN ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2005‐HE1 Total 209,096,697         128,660,543              12,125,132          25,565,008                3,301,168$                      15,185,192               143,845,735$         2.00% 90.00% 10.00% 8,671,535$                    25,968,314          154,362,166        3.00% 95.00% 7.00% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2005‐HE2 Total 114,102,000         44,595,335                ‐                        3,190,404                  1,987,286$                      7,810,001                  52,405,336$           1.58% 105.44% 11.08% 2,656,066$                    8,655,252            53,250,588          1.69% 105.62% 10.11% FGIC 0.00%

GMACM 2005‐HE2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE2 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2005‐HE2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE2 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE2 A4 66,216,355            ‐                        1,850,137                  1,152,437$                      1,540,266$                    FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE2 A5 28,833,569            ‐                        805,621                     501,823$                         670,701$                        FGICGMACM 2005‐HE2 A6 19,134,910            ‐                        534,646                     333,026$                         445,099$                        FGIC

GMACM 2005‐HE3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacGMACM 2005‐HE3 A2 128,539,943         28,961,668          13,263,332 1,988,028$                      4,273,533$                    Ambac

GMACM 2005‐HE3 A3 105,606,820         23,794,547          10,896,989 1,633,339$                      3,511,082$                    Ambac

Page 5 of 22

Page 96: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

GMACM 2005‐HE3 A1VN 64,230,439            14,471,927          6,627,587 993,403$                         2,135,452$                    Ambac

GMACM 2005‐HE3 A2VN ‐                          ‐                        0 ‐$                                  ‐$                                 AmbacGMACM 2005‐HE3 A3VN ‐                          ‐                        0 ‐$                                  ‐$                                 Ambac

GMACM 2005‐HE3 Total 298,377,202         189,242,815              67,228,142          30,787,908 4,614,770$                      6,991,130                  196,233,945$         2.00% 90.00% 9.00% 9,920,068$                    19,968,962          208,498,200        3.00% 92.00% 8.00% Ambac 0.00%RFMSII 2005‐HI1 Total 30,778,800            37,017,148                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,016,282                  40,033,430$           2.55% 109.60% 9.84% ‐$                                 3,252,984            40,270,132          2.68% 109.62% 8.95% FGIC 15.64%

RFMSII 2005‐HI1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HI1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HI1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HI1 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2005‐HI1 A5 25,965,961            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2005‐HS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS1 AI3 38,311,579            3,513,115            ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS1 AI4 49,232,000            4,514,501            ‐                              33,282,431$                    33,849,125$                  FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS1 AI5 20,089,167            1,842,147            ‐                              547,018$                         568,223$                        FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS1 AII 42,979,477            3,941,154            ‐                              14,665,016$                    15,062,433$                  FGICRFMSII 2005‐HS1 Total 119,885,000         101,797,208              13,810,917          ‐                              48,494,466$                    9,991,903                  111,789,111$         2.12% 105.54% 14.29% 49,479,781$                  10,684,664          112,481,872        2.18% 105.59% 13.01% FGIC 0.00%RFMSII 2005‐HS2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS2 AI3 37,748,782            7,954,042            ‐                              12,087,824$                    12,698,300$                  FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HS2 AI4 26,450,000            5,573,277            ‐                              26,450,000$                    26,450,000$                  FGICRFMSII 2005‐HS2 AI5 17,922,200            3,776,385            ‐                              1,499,931$                      1,486,243$                    FGICRFMSII 2005‐HS2 AII 35,828,933            7,549,511            ‐                              18,544,567$                    18,861,279$                  FGICRFMSII 2005‐HS2 Total 80,255,954            100,440,256              24,853,214          ‐                              58,582,322$                    9,075,794                  109,516,050$         2.69% 105.46% 12.25% 59,495,822$                  9,834,832            110,275,088        2.81% 105.49% 11.17% FGIC 0.00%RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 Total 30,371,900            73,263,216                32,655,876          ‐                              38,904,154$                    5,460,400                  78,723,616$           4.25% 107.30% 10.55% 39,188,950$                  5,690,737            78,953,953          4.35% 107.32% 9.90% FGIC 0.00%RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AI3 15,463,683            9,204,374            ‐                              11,459,185$                    11,601,896$                  FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AI4 13,717,000            8,164,704            ‐                              13,717,000$                    13,717,000$                  FGIC

RFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AI5 11,121,944            6,620,062            ‐                              3,727,074$                      3,768,899$                    FGICRFMSII 2005‐HSA1 AII 14,560,431            8,666,736            ‐                              10,000,895$                    10,101,154$                  FGICRAMP 2005‐NC1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2005‐NC1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2005‐NC1 AI3 41,596,569            6,837,034            9,664,682                  197,206$                         289,821$                        FGIC

RAMP 2005‐NC1 AI4 51,227,557            8,420,035            7,384,124                  8,772,312$                      10,058,405$                  FGIC

RAMP 2005‐NC1 AII 84,088,096            13,821,169          16,742,018                8,001,058$                      9,241,506$                    FGICRAMP 2005‐NC1 Total 176,912,223         195,351,552              29,078,238          33,790,825                16,970,576$                    39,954,246               235,305,798$         3.38% 69.95% 2.68% 19,589,732$                  44,156,473          239,508,025        3.64% 71.46% 2.37% FGIC 0.00%RAMP 2005‐RS9 AI3 19,770,898            5,424,434            8,248,907.30            ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2005‐RS9 AI4 122,495,752         33,608,495          18,302,640.14          8,735,990.480$               9,921,154$                    FGIC

RAMP 2005‐RS9 AII 93,216,656            25,575,348          19,301,373.20          5,806,808.950$               6,590,800$                    FGIC

RAMP 2005‐RS9 AI1 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RAMP 2005‐RS9 AI2 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRAMP 2005‐RS9 Total 235,483,305         249,793,280              64,608,278          45,852,920.64          14,542,799$                    42,845,550               292,638,830$         3.53% 59.15% 3.60% 16,511,954$                  46,124,953          295,918,233        3.74% 59.97% 3.36% FGIC 0.00%RFMSI 2005‐S2 AV 58,044,888            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A2 15,255,841            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A6 14,226,337            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 M1 3,447,589              ‐                        137,194                     2,762,817$                      3,043,532$                    FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A3 1,203,720              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A1 23,350,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A4 721,727                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 AP 561,402                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 M2 ‐                          ‐                        1,468,533                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 M3 ‐                          ‐                        740,276                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSI 2005‐S2 B1 ‐                          ‐                        498,104                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 B3 ‐                          ‐                        401,973                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 B2 ‐                          ‐                        374,380                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S2 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSI 2005‐S2 Total 58,183,700            3,922,714                   ‐                        3,620,460                  2,762,817$                      1,392,773                  5,315,488$             1.18% 30.21% 8.50% 3,043,532$                    1,605,788            5,528,502            1.25% 31.63% 7.81% FGIC 5.94%

RFMSI 2005‐S5 AV 57,203,292            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSARFMSI 2005‐S5 A8 25,326,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A6 15,926,729            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

Page 6 of 22

Page 97: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A1 5,368,657              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A5 5,288,120              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 M1 3,418,414              ‐                        58,184                        2,745,130$                        3,000,452$                    FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A7 1,122,364              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A4 388,296                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A2 25,326,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 A3 281,432                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 AP 83,281                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 M2 ‐                          ‐                        1,339,005                  ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 M3 ‐                          ‐                        730,845                     ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 B1 ‐                          ‐                        488,173                     ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 B2 ‐                          ‐                        368,566                     ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 B3 ‐                          ‐                        369,051                     ‐$                                    ‐$                                 FSA

RFMSI 2005‐S5 Total 57,368,200            3,721,383                   ‐                        3,353,825                  2,745,130$                      1,298,614                  5,019,997$             1.11% 31.46% 9.23% 3,000,452$                    1,509,153            5,230,536            1.19% 32.73% 8.53% FSA 5.98%RFMSI 2005‐S7 AV 89,583,610            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 A6 23,155,340            ‐                        ‐                              1,192,621$                      1,258,680$                    FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 A8 17,135,513            ‐                        148,372                     2,139,783$                      2,297,889$                    FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 A5 10,937,630            ‐                        94,706                        1,365,827$                      1,466,747$                    FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 A1 6,936,533              ‐                        ‐                              632,434$                         698,548$                        FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 A9 2,461,743              ‐                        221,811                     1,701,600$                      1,814,730$                    FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 A4 2,252,540              ‐                        ‐                              205,397$                         226,934$                        FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 A3 1,836,512              ‐                        15,902                        229,333$                         246,278$                        FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 A2 24,048,761            873,493               208,239                     3,003,069$                      3,224,962$                    FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 AP 472,597                 ‐                        ‐                              25,455$                           28,407$                          FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 A7 345,577                 ‐                        82,558                        337,509$                         338,152$                        FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 M1 ‐                          ‐                        5,868,203                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 M2 ‐                          ‐                        2,098,547                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 M3 ‐                          ‐                        1,055,104                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 B1 ‐                          ‐                        908,180                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSI 2005‐S7 B2 ‐                          ‐                        757,311                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 B3 ‐                          ‐                        623,646                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSI 2005‐S7 Total 89,940,900            12,553,896                873,493               12,082,579                10,833,027$                    5,077,417                  17,631,313$           2.04% 40.96% 8.30% 11,601,325$                  5,682,238            18,236,134          2.15% 41.75% 7.56% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2006‐HE1 A 451,180,891         37,548,715          73,430,059                45,248,782$                    75,107,895$                  FGICGMACM 2006‐HE1 Total 453,248,309         308,889,156              37,548,715          73,430,059                45,248,782$                    59,478,479               368,367,636$         3.00% 87.00% 10.00% 75,107,895$                  92,492,636          401,262,337        4.00% 92.00% 7.00% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2006‐HE2 Total 121,696,000         96,742,991                12,062,112          50,694,790                8,678,432$                      9,831,967                  106,574,958$         1.94% 104.27% 12.88% 9,619,734$                    10,818,443          107,561,434        2.06% 104.51% 11.90% FGIC 0.00%

GMACM 2006‐HE2 A1 ‐                          256,787                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE2 A2 ‐                          1,968,259                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE2 A3 56,519,785            5,595,565            29,047,166                1,220,136$                      1,400,113$                    FGICGMACM 2006‐HE2 A4 65,317,422            6,466,547            19,422,578                7,458,296$                      8,219,621$                    FGICGMACM 2006‐HE3 A1 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE3 A2 44,143,671            5,870,631            16,302,965                428,356$                         777,262$                        FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE3 A3 78,420,493            10,429,077          28,961,946                760,967$                         1,380,792$                    FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE3 A4 39,041,841            5,192,142            14,418,778                378,849$                         687,431$                        FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE3 A5 47,487,863            6,315,372            17,538,029                460,807$                         836,145$                        FGICGMACM 2006‐HE3 Total 209,094,000         168,566,510              27,807,222          77,221,718                2,028,979$                      17,191,845               185,758,355$         1.94% 106.42% 15.04% 3,681,630$                    19,697,368          188,263,878        2.10% 106.56% 13.60% FGIC 0.00%

GMACM 2006‐HE4 Total 429,159,045         323,464,071              235,612,379       ‐                              13,862,207$                    41,038,016               364,502,087$         3.00% 90.00% 10.00% 30,807,104$                  50,161,741          373,625,812        4.00% 93.00% 8.00% MBIA 0.00%

GMACM 2006‐HE4 A1 192,162,837         107,201,764       ‐                              6,617,235$                      14,400,405$                  MBIA

GMACM 2006‐HE4 A2 127,248,796         70,988,208          ‐                              4,381,884$                      9,535,841$                    MBIAGMACM 2006‐HE4 A3 102,931,633         57,422,407          ‐                              2,863,088$                      6,870,858$                    MBIA

GMACM 2006‐HE4 A1VP ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

GMACM 2006‐HE4 A2VP ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

GMACM 2006‐HE4 A3VP ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2006‐HE5 1A1 141,631,690         ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE5 2A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HE5 2A2 96,957,048            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICGMACM 2006‐HE5 Total 261,728,831         213,825,691              ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  10,565,077               224,390,768$         1.35% 103.26% 10.82% ‐$                                 11,402,551          225,228,242        1.40% 103.46% 9.81% FGIC 8.84%RFMSII 2006‐HI2 Total 70,497,500            60,756,772                ‐                        ‐                              31,451,643$                    8,501,547                  69,258,319$           2.59% 108.63% 8.25% 32,444,176$                  9,159,965            69,916,737          2.72% 108.63% 7.43% FGIC 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HI2 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI2 A3 13,493,433            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

Page 7 of 22

Page 98: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMSII 2006‐HI2 A4 72,434,000            ‐                        ‐                              31,451,643$                    32,444,176$                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI3 Total 72,195,200            57,675,528                ‐                        ‐                              12,294,425$                    9,312,343                  66,987,871$           2.54% 108.37% 8.65% 13,041,656$                  10,036,981          67,712,509          2.65% 108.39% 7.75% FGIC 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HI3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI3 A3 14,735,150            ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI3 A4 65,142,000            ‐                        ‐                              12,294,425$                    13,041,657$                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI4 A1 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI4 A2 ‐                          ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI4 A3 23,872,278            1,734,052            ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI4 A4 76,826,000            5,580,544            ‐                              43,188,451$                    44,607,234$                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI4 Total 78,225,500            86,402,568                7,314,597            ‐                              43,188,451$                    14,340,252               100,742,820$         3.74% 107.93% 8.86% 44,607,234$                  15,474,795          101,877,363        3.91% 107.96% 7.95% FGIC 0.00%RFMSII 2006‐HI5 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI5 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HI5 A3 29,191,116            328,322               ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI5 A4 77,476,000            871,399               ‐                              47,931,156                     49,174,333                   FGICRFMSII 2006‐HI5 Total 83,707,200            77,030,264                1,199,721            ‐                              47,931,156$                    15,678,836               92,709,100$           4.03% 108.29% 8.36% 49,174,333$                  16,662,923          93,693,187          4.15% 108.29% 7.45% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2006‐HLTV1 Total 55,971,600            50,035,564                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  4,445,759                  54,481,323$           1.81% 105.84% 14.81% ‐$                                 5,111,520            55,147,084          1.98% 105.92% 13.52% FGIC 0.00%

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2006‐HLTV1 A4 27,264,010            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2006‐HLTV1 A5 28,901,170            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA1 Total 72,413,600            103,180,136              42,509,719          32,424,895                6,107,118$                      12,058,088               115,238,224$         4.00% 106.29% 11.81% 6,693,047$                    12,902,569          116,082,705        4.13% 106.30% 10.62% FGIC 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        3,686,164                  ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1 A3 23,728,118            13,929,367          10,388,601                907,667                          1,041,109                      FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA1 A4 33,068,374            19,412,475          9,848,627                  4,679,880                       5,060,168                      FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA1 A5 15,617,112            9,167,877            8,501,504                  519,571                          591,769                         FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AI3 34,995,879            17,828,177          ‐                              25,287,643                     27,606,925                   FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AI4 20,949,000            10,672,184          ‐                              20,949,000                     20,949,000                   FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AI5 18,155,559            9,249,104            ‐                              5,480,865                       6,793,859                      FGIC

RFMSII 2006‐HSA2 AII 26,143,079            13,318,238          ‐                              19,516,175                     21,070,132                   FGICRFMSII 2006‐HSA2 Total 63,558,218            124,693,080              51,067,703          ‐                              71,233,683$                    14,376,925               139,070,005$         5.00% 92.00% 8.00% 76,419,916$                  18,861,621          143,554,701        6.00% 96.00% 6.00% FGIC 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HSA3 Total 24,513,461            57,970,296                51,769,902          ‐                              413,828$                         1,456,752                  59,427,048$           1.96% 103.88% 8.22% 493,819$                        1,823,012            62,703,696          2.03% 104.01% 7.58% FSA 0.73%

RFMSII 2006‐HSA3 A 24,333,449            51,769,902          ‐                              413,828                          493,819                         FSARFMSII 2006‐HSA4 Total 59,299,200            126,816,360              110,487,924       ‐                              3,037,613$                      10,265,806               137,082,166$         2.86% 104.81% 8.46% 3,476,040$                    11,159,837          137,976,197        3.01% 104.81% 7.64% MBIA 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HSA4 A 55,665,741            110,487,924       ‐                              3,037,613                       3,476,040                      MBIARFMSII 2006‐HSA5 Total 44,802,800            114,097,480              107,897,626       ‐                              5,891,787$                      9,995,420                  124,092,900$         4.51% 104.43% 10.99% 6,351,865$                    10,635,391          124,732,871        4.60% 104.52% 10.00% MBIA 0.00%

RFMSII 2006‐HSA5 A 42,812,413            107,897,626       ‐                              5,891,787                       6,351,865                      MBIA

RALI 2006‐QH1 A1 92,334,354            5,971,617            ‐                              84                                    107                                 Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 A2 17,419,698            1,126,599            21,670,936                2,438,860                       3,856,099                      Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        21,042,963                ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 Total 120,038,000         119,826,680              7,098,216            60,588,899.25 2,438,945$                      21,288,500               141,115,180$         3.45% 52.16% 2.88% 3,856,206$                    22,993,386          142,820,066        3.71% 52.89% 2.76% Ambac 0.00%

RALI 2006‐QH1 M1 ‐                          ‐                        8,342,000                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 M2 ‐                          ‐                        4,426,000                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 M3 ‐                          ‐                        1,703,000                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 M4 ‐                          ‐                        1,702,000                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RALI 2006‐QH1 M5 ‐                          ‐                        1,702,000                  ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2007‐EMX1 A11 ‐                          ‐                        1,407,086                  ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RASC 2007‐EMX1 A12 ‐                          ‐                        2,413,677                  ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RASC 2007‐EMX1 A13 90,989,548            390,659               13,795,939                10,118,628                     11,651,215                   FGIC

RASC 2007‐EMX1 A14 40,294,097            173,001               6,054,458                  18,761,097                     20,074,872                   FGIC

RASC 2007‐EMX1 A2 117,792,077         505,734               20,303,877                26,870,133                     29,520,716                   FGICRASC 2007‐EMX1 Total 250,913,000         234,697,392              1,069,394            43,975,036.65 55,749,857$                    99,058,996               333,756,388$         5.33% 77.94% 1.71% 61,246,803$                  105,276,599        339,973,991        5.58% 79.63% 1.55% FGIC 0.00%GMACM 2007‐HE1 Total 282,517,000         225,916,482              157,697,528       ‐                              6,364,839$                      15,014,891               240,931,373$         1.33% 103.11% 12.13% 8,086,741$                    17,497,491          243,413,973        1.42% 105.22% 10.11% MBIA 0.00%

GMACM 2007‐HE1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2007‐HE1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2007‐HE1 A3 71,215,595            39,751,726          ‐                              1,555,463                       1,983,271                      MBIA

GMACM 2007‐HE1 A4 123,871,000         69,143,368          ‐                              2,838,135                       3,599,015                      MBIA

Page 8 of 22

Page 99: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

GMACM 2007‐HE1 A5 87,430,022            48,802,433          ‐                              1,971,241                       2,504,455                      MBIAGMACM 2007‐HE2 A1 18,378,965            1,232,841            7,162,708                  372,589                          488,581                         FGIC

GMACM 2007‐HE2 A2 75,893,365            5,090,843            29,577,400                1,515,200                       1,986,855                      FGIC

GMACM 2007‐HE2 A3 97,534,024            6,542,475            38,011,265                1,947,253                       2,553,398                      FGIC

GMACM 2007‐HE2 A4 77,188,926            5,177,748            30,082,310                1,541,066                       2,020,772                      FGIC

GMACM 2007‐HE2 A5 28,378,373            1,903,590            11,059,708                566,570                          742,933                         FGIC

GMACM 2007‐HE2 A6 55,131,520            3,698,161            21,486,028                1,100,693                       1,443,319                      FGICGMACM 2007‐HE2 Total 358,932,000         277,281,942              23,645,658          137,379,419             7,043,371$                      23,375,343               300,657,285$         1.55% 104.36% 14.29% 9,235,858$                    26,637,723          303,919,665        1.66% 104.31% 12.77% FGIC 0.00%RFMSII 2007‐HI1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2007‐HI1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2007‐HI1 A3 41,412,224            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

RFMSII 2007‐HI1 A4 78,740,000            ‐                        ‐                              53,956,576                     55,611,957                   FGICRFMSII 2007‐HI1 Total 92,469,800            82,770,256                ‐                        ‐                              53,956,576$                    14,418,733               97,188,989$           3.39% 108.10% 9.49% 55,611,957$                  15,734,643          98,504,899          3.53% 108.17% 8.27% FGIC 0.00%

RFMSII 2007‐HSA1 Total 98,175,000            244,985,296              235,545,026       ‐                              5,646,108$                      19,050,819               264,036,115$         2.99% 104.56% 7.14% 7,902,774$                    23,235,607          268,220,903        3.70% 104.41% 6.88% MBIA 0.00%

RFMSII 2007‐HSA1 A 91,726,187            235,545,026       ‐                              5,646,108                       7,902,774                      MBIARFMSII 2007‐HSA2 Total 219,385,040         726,288,892              778,266,280       ‐                              24,666,496$                    44,560,878               770,849,769$         3.22% 106.37% 4.30% 27,263,247$                  47,711,738          774,000,630        3.39% 106.39% 3.71% MBIA 0.00%

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A1V ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A1F ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A4 44,637,239            158,350,167       ‐                              4,382,736                       4,957,372                      MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A5 71,956,000            255,263,205       ‐                              13,746,386                     14,957,181                   MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA2 A6 102,791,801         364,652,907       ‐                              6,537,375                       7,348,694                      MBIARFMSII 2007‐HSA3 Total 160,736,314         424,692,955              429,603,755       ‐                              25,938,071$                    26,997,073               451,690,028$         3.75% 106.71% 3.25% 28,064,051$                  28,570,606          453,263,560        3.91% 106.73% 2.72% MBIA 0.00%

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI4 31,468,912            84,107,706          ‐                              5,262,628                       5,688,159                      MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI5 31,087,000            83,086,961          ‐                              8,266,469                       8,756,982                      MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AI6 47,963,769            128,193,903       ‐                              4,910,501                       5,360,206                      MBIA

RFMSII 2007‐HSA3 AII 50,216,633            134,215,184       ‐                              7,498,473                       8,258,703                      MBIA

GMACM 2000‐HE2 Total 3,442,378              19,597,626                3,085,230            ‐                              221,417$                         198,391                     19,796,018$           2.00% 102.00% 6.00% 319,458$                        307,920               19,905,546          3.00% 105.00% 5.00% MBIA 0.00%

GMACM 2000‐HE2 A1 3,317,985              2,967,294            ‐                              216,592                          312,569                         MBIA

GMACM 2000‐HE2 A2 131,874                 117,936               ‐                              4,825                               6,889                              MBIA

GMACM 2000‐HE4 Total 4,057,665              10,995,712                2,189,373            ‐                              616,045$                         506,158                     11,501,870$           4.00% 103.00% 5.00% 756,772$                        660,404               11,656,116          5.00% 107.00% 4.00% MBIA 0.00%

GMACM 2000‐HE4 A1 3,627,559              1,957,302.72      ‐                              571,564                          701,834                         MBIA

GMACM 2000‐HE4 A2 430,106                 232,070               ‐                              44,480                            54,938                           MBIAGMACM 2002‐HE4 Total 10,341,976            6,610,637                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  418,575                     7,029,212$             1.00% 95.00% 8.00% ‐$                                 869,475               7,480,112            2.00% 98.00% 7.00% FGIC 29.71%

GMACM 2002‐HE4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2002‐HE4 A2 7,269,423              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2002‐HE4 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2002‐HE1 Total 14,162,836 10,407,694                ‐                        44,711                        316,246$                         1,271,734                  11,679,428$           3.00% 95.00% 15.00% 989,269$                        1,812,762            12,220,456          4.00% 98.00% 13.00% FGIC 0.13%

GMACM 2002‐HE1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        11,178                        79,062                            247,317                         FGICGMACM 2002‐HE1 A2 7,269,423              ‐                        33,534                        237,185                          741,952                         FGIC

GMACM 2002‐HE3 Total 34,602,128 14,803,800                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  869,209                     15,673,009$           1.00% 93.00% 18.00% ‐$                                 1,848,311            16,652,111          2.00% 95.00% 16.00% MBIA 8.88%

GMACM 2002‐HE3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2002‐HE3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2002‐HE3 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐HE1 Total 36,788,966 17,735,703                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  820,238                     18,555,941$           1.00% 90.00% 20.00% ‐$                                 1,760,687            19,496,390          2.00% 93.00% 18.00% FGIC 2.91%

GMACM 2003‐HE1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2003‐HE1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE1 A3 35,719,160            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacGMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AI7 2,906,599              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 9 of 22

Page 100: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

GMACM 2001‐HLT1 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacGMACM 2001‐HLT1 Total 4,406,599 29,469,015                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  265,940                     29,734,955$           2.00% 93.00% 15.00% ‐$                                 440,519               29,909,535          3.00% 95.00% 12.00% Ambac 34.00%GMACM 2001‐HE2 Total 10,045,635 14,582,601                ‐                        1,330,249                  ‐$                                  1,203,491                  15,786,092$           4.00% 95.00% 3.00% 2,915$                            1,542,508            16,125,109          5.00% 97.00% 2.00% FGIC 2.41%GMACM 2001‐HE2 IA1 3,950,455              ‐                        315,088                     ‐                                   2,915                              FGIC

GMACM 2001‐HE2 IA2 1,975,789              ‐                        1,015,161                  ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

GMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2001‐HE2 IIA7 2,879,579              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2001‐HE3 Total 4,620,410 5,359,493                   ‐                        1,151,551                  ‐$                                  421,066                     5,780,559$             2.00% 95.00% 6.00% 194,373$                        648,551               6,008,044            3.00% 97.00% 5.00% FGIC 0.18%GMACM 2001‐HE3 A1 2,680,196              ‐                        753,313                     ‐                                   120,223                         FGICGMACM 2001‐HE3 A2 1,895,866              ‐                        398,237                     ‐                                   74,150                           FGICGMACM 2001‐HLT2 AI 3,827,057              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacGMACM 2001‐HLT2 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacGMACM 2001‐HLT2 Total 4,773,332 16,984,409                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  700,609                     17,685,018$           4.00% 90.00% 8.00% ‐$                                 924,766               17,909,175          5.00% 91.00% 6.00% Ambac 19.82%

GMACM 2002‐HLT1 A1 4,979,166              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2002‐HLT1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

GMACM 2002‐HLT1 Total 6,034,166 19,599,349                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  910,995                     20,510,344$           4.00% 95.00% 8.00% ‐$                                 1,212,539            20,811,888          5.00% 97.00% 6.00% Ambac 17.48%RFSC 2002‐RP2 A1 6,619,593              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFSC 2002‐RP2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2002‐RP2 Total 7,486,933 17,801,727                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,207,536                  19,009,263$           3.00% 100.00% 6.00% ‐$                                 1,783,218            19,584,945          4.00% 105.00% 4.00% Ambac 11.58%GMACM 2003‐GH1 M1 1,450,052              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 M2 1,318,229              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 B 970,440                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   83,158                           MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2003‐GH1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIAGMACM 2003‐GH1 A5 15,323,486            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

GMACM 2003‐GH1 Total 20,181,700 4,560,366                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,471,000                  6,031,366$             1.55% 76.27% 4.90% 83,158$                          1,552,659            6,113,025            1.58% 77.23% 4.51% MBIA 24.07%GMACM 2003‐HE2 Total 15,250,458 6,614,661                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  481,915                     7,096,576$             1.00% 90.00% 12.00% ‐$                                 1,062,319            7,676,980            2.00% 95.00% 10.00% FGIC 20.81%GMACM 2003‐HE2 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE2 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE2 A4 6,548,778              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE2 A5 5,528,450              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICGMACM 2003‐HE2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRALI 2002‐QS15 CB 15,145,480            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 NB3 5,379,000              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 M1 5,331,927              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 M2 2,088,081              ‐                        ‐                              249,118                          325,163                         MBIA

RALI 2002‐QS15 M3 1,579,864              ‐                        ‐                              1,147,396                       1,190,212                      MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 B1 194,595                 ‐                        466,547                     177,194                          176,130                         MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 AP 21,007                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 NB2 5,379,000              1,573                    ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 AV ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 NB1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 B2 ‐                          ‐                        1,368,036                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2002‐QS15 B3 ‐                          ‐                        1,198,455                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2002‐QS15 Total 29,882,400 3,114,670                   1,573                    3,033,038                  1,573,708$                      1,316,093                  4,430,763$             1.15% 53.53% 5.94% 1,691,506$                    1,434,093            4,548,763            1.21% 54.39% 5.59% MBIA 30.92%

RALI 2003‐QS1 M1 5,644,504              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A13 2,483,466              ‐                        ‐                              15                                    20                                   MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A14 2,483,466              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2003‐QS1 M2 2,270,525              ‐                        ‐                              447,553                          525,410                         MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A6 1,703,536              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 M3 1,698,988              ‐                        361,401                     1,459,322                       1,490,062                      MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A2 1,571,968              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A4 929,201                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A5 929,201                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A1 743,308                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A3 445,985                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2003‐QS1 A9 364,897                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

Page 10 of 22

Page 101: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RALI 2003‐QS1 A10 364,897                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 AP 201,609                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A8 19,075,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A7 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A11 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 A12 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 AV ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2003‐QS1 B1 ‐                          ‐                        1,288,762                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 B2 ‐                          ‐                        1,355,631                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 B3 ‐                          ‐                        1,390,444                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS1 Total 37,305,100 4,360,272                   ‐                        4,396,237                  1,906,890$                      1,293,469                  5,653,741$             1.07% 50.05% 7.93% 2,015,492$                    1,390,645            5,750,917            1.09% 51.20% 7.42% MBIA 25.89%

RALI 2003‐QS8 A6 12,814,656            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 A4 4,533,549              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARALI 2003‐QS8 A5 4,533,549              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 M1 3,564,665              ‐                        ‐                              631,176                          727,713                         MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 A1 3,147,651              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 A2 1,573,825              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 M2 1,489,375              ‐                        ‐                              1,359,943                       1,380,381                      MBIARALI 2003‐QS8 A7 1,476,889              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 M3 206,738                 ‐                        1,247,050                  181,426                          180,595                         MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 AP 198,753                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 A3 5,921,000              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 AV ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 B1 ‐                          ‐                        872,964                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 B2 ‐                          ‐                        1,020,774                  ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 B3 ‐                          ‐                        899,815                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RALI 2003‐QS8 Total 35,098,500 4,084,189                   ‐                        4,040,603                  2,172,545$                      1,537,855                  5,622,044$             1.04% 60.49% 6.63% 2,288,689$                    1,635,812            5,720,001            1.07% 61.44% 6.26% MBIA 15.06%RAMP 2001‐RS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2001‐RS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS1 AI4 5,838,303              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS1 AII 3,092,229              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS1 Total 9,547,120 23,733,322                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,296,015                  25,029,337$           4.53% 68.60% 6.60% ‐$                                 1,342,778            25,076,100          4.47% 71.20% 6.37% Ambac 0%/15.44%

RAMP 2001‐RS1 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AI5 8,704,343              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AII 4,352,387              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2001‐RS3 Total 14,795,300 29,441,794                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,359,843                  31,801,637$           3.83% 77.91% 3.60% ‐$                                 2,490,105            31,931,899          3.90% 80.02% 3.38% Ambac 8.33%/14.55%

RAMP 2001‐RS3 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2002‐RP1 A1 5,056,112              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2002‐RP1 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2002‐RP1 Total 6,084,370 17,156,209                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  547,502                     17,703,711$           3.08% 64.78% 8.99% ‐$                                 584,988               17,741,197          3.18% 66.35% 8.69% Ambac 16.90%

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AI5 7,768,232              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MII2 1,936,284              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MI1 1,811,974              ‐                        343,940                     1,344,901                       1,425,430                      Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MII3 421,059                 ‐                        2,211,798                  177,928                          192,459                         Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MI2 ‐                          ‐                        1,813,310                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MI3 ‐                          ‐                        2,080,041                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS1 MII1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 11 of 22

Page 102: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAMP 2002‐RS1 Total 12,082,000 22,727,180                ‐                        6,449,089                  1,522,828$                      2,093,142                  24,820,322$           5.24% 60.09% 4.31% 1,617,889$                    2,194,916            24,922,096          5.48% 60.17% 4.05% Ambac 18.65%

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AI5 9,269,436              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 MII2 1,953,827              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS2 MI1 1,452,115              ‐                        ‐                              349,768                          411,823                         Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 MI2 740,115                 ‐                        104,750                     524,426                          523,689                         Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 MII3 151,028                 ‐                        1,573,316                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 MI3 ‐                          ‐                        2,622,288                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS2 MII1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS2 Total 13,484,700 19,218,928                ‐                        4,300,354                  874,194$                         1,504,700                  20,723,628$           2.31% 87.04% 6.22% 935,512$                        1,579,022            20,797,950          2.35% 88.33% 5.86% Ambac 17.15%

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AI6 11,223,398            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS4 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AI5 1,587,973              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 AII 1,481,977              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS4 Total 16,541,300 23,580,908                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,414,540                  24,995,448$           1.91% 73.65% 6.16% ‐$                                 1,544,386            25,125,294          2.03% 74.85% 5.82% Ambac 10.12%RAMP 2002‐RS4 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AI6 9,251,316              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS5 AI5 2,969,083              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 AII 5,739,940              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS5 Total 21,044,800 16,883,254                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,040,182                  19,923,436$           3.42% 82.57% 8.02% ‐$                                 3,171,378            20,054,632          3.44% 83.86% 7.57% Ambac 14.38%

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI7 13,262,395            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI6 4,359,844              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS6 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AI5 5,818,160              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AII 2,392,439              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS6 Total 31,454,600 26,800,322                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,720,403                  30,520,725$           2.87% 63.07% 4.68% ‐$                                 3,922,162            30,722,484          2.74% 67.76% 4.30% Ambac 9.86%

RAMP 2002‐RS6 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RS7 A1 17,884,963            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2002‐RS7 Total 19,047,700 6,999,832                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,007,614                  9,007,446$             2.11% 76.50% 5.77% ‐$                                 2,142,407            9,142,239            2.21% 77.32% 5.55% Ambac 5.37%

RAMP 2002‐RS7 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RZ4 A 12,522,420            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2002‐RZ4 Total 21,756,500 18,108,402                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,924,548                  20,032,950$           2.03% 69.92% 7.42% ‐$                                 2,113,995            20,222,397          2.10% 72.08% 6.83% Ambac 42.21%

RAMP 2002‐RZ4 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP1 M2 10,436,266            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFSC 2003‐RP1 M3 2,679,664              ‐                        6,976,336                  528,910                          1,579,751                      Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP1 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP1 M1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP1 Total 13,174,896 26,215,997                ‐                        6,976,336                  528,910$                         1,546,380                  27,762,377$           2.00% 95.00% 6.00% 1,579,751$                    2,598,288            28,814,284          3.00% 100.00% 4.00% Ambac n/a

RFSC 2003‐RP2 A1 682,621                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP2 M2 9,209,556              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP2 M1 4,118,000              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 12 of 22

Page 103: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFSC 2003‐RP2 Total 19,870,454 15,818,761                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,093,210                  16,911,971$           1.00% 105.00% 10.00% ‐$                                 2,416,143            18,234,904          2.00% 110.00% 8.00% Ambac 96.56%

RFSC 2003‐RP2 M3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFSC 2003‐RP2 M4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AI6 9,911,838              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AII 7,373,117              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AI5 6,583,451              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 MI1 1,679,505              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS1 Total 27,442,800 32,232,516                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,033,237                  34,265,753$           1.60% 62.42% 3.56% ‐$                                 2,190,028            34,422,544          1.65% 64.62% 3.41% Ambac 7.58%

RAMP 2003‐RS1 MI2 940,337                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS1 MI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS2 AI5 22,484,651            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AI6 15,548,402            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 AII 11,303,649            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS2 Total 54,562,500 58,608,528                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  7,027,819                  65,636,347$           2.73% 68.43% 4.28% ‐$                                 7,659,151            66,267,679          2.89% 69.66% 3.97% Ambac 4.66%/20.27%

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AI5 4,823,972              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AI4 16,682,154            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 AII 9,388,971              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS3 Total 34,063,700 49,981,020                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,950,973                  52,931,993$           2.27% 60.36% 6.62% ‐$                                 3,149,921            53,130,941          2.36% 60.83% 6.21% Ambac 2.45%/19.20%

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS4 AI5 31,019,882            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AI6 6,462,850              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AIIA 5,293,965              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 AIIB 5,569,046              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS4 Total 54,393,300 57,049,844                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,576,399                  60,626,243$           1.34% 79.06% 7.65% ‐$                                 3,848,315            60,898,159          1.40% 79.66% 7.17% Ambac 6.09%/22.06%

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI6 5,890,993              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AI5 43,448,371            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AIIA 7,191,734              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 AIIB 2,111,334              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS5 Total 66,616,500 56,387,592                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  6,005,475                  62,393,067$           1.83% 76.51% 6.66% ‐$                                 6,285,648            62,673,240          1.86% 76.83% 6.10% Ambac 7.19%/26.97%

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AI6 8,358,902              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS6 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AI5 50,013,814            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS6 AIIA 3,878,493              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 AIIB 6,737,438              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS6 Total 73,733,300 51,719,816                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  7,035,720                  58,755,536$           2.12% 73.21% 7.57% ‐$                                 7,751,700            59,471,516          2.23% 75.18% 7.13% Ambac 3.92%/15.22%

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AI5 57,822,916            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 13 of 22

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAMP 2003‐RS7 MII1 11,342,104            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS7 AI6 8,477,589              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 MI2 6,146,451              ‐                        ‐                              268,395                          535,163                         Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 MI1 5,209,821              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 MII3 4,160,477              ‐                        2,440,821                  3,833,041                       3,980,933                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 MII2 3,960,718              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS7 MI3 1,075,774              ‐                        6,948,027                  1,075,774                       1,075,774                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS7 AIIA ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 AIIB ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS7 Total 98,904,400 59,388,992                ‐                        9,388,848                  5,177,210$                      5,240,000                  64,628,992$           1.05% 78.87% 7.62% 5,591,871$                    5,691,300            65,080,292          1.10% 79.21% 7.06% Ambac Class PIF

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI6A 35,148,315            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI8 13,722,032            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS8 MII1 12,932,405            ‐                        ‐                              1,233,088                       1,372,132                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI7 7,784,254              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MI1 6,814,278              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MI2 6,736,116              ‐                        ‐                              1,569,421                       2,238,459                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MII2 5,504,525              ‐                        ‐                              3,740,573                       3,753,494                      AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS8 AI6B 18,679,353            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MI3 2,952,737              ‐                        ‐                              2,937,312                       2,928,002                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MII4 1,866,440              ‐                        ‐                              1,866,440                       1,866,440                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MII3 1,758,916              ‐                        4,343,746                  1,758,916                       1,758,916                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 MII5 186,290                 ‐                        1,702,363                  186,290                          186,290                         AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS8 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS8 AIIA ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 AIIB ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS8 Total 113,599,000 69,183,896                ‐                        6,046,108                  13,292,039$                    10,721,746               79,905,642$           2.27% 63.57% 6.36% 14,103,733$                  11,613,975          80,797,871          2.36% 64.65% 5.87% Ambac 21.38%

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI6A 23,714,528            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MII1 15,476,850            ‐                        ‐                              1,105,987                       1,378,372                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MI1 7,811,995              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS9 AI7 7,757,021              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MII2 5,766,544              ‐                        ‐                              4,701,196                       4,816,438                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MI2 5,697,978              ‐                        ‐                              3,762,947                       4,668,304                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI6B 15,863,325            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MII3 2,297,660              ‐                        ‐                              2,297,660                       2,297,660                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MII4 2,232,834              ‐                        168,612                     2,232,834                       2,232,834                      AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS9 MI3 1,560,818              ‐                        4,331,902                  1,465,097                       1,452,000                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 AIIA ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RS9 AIIB ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 MII5 ‐                          ‐                        2,582,543                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RS9 Total 88,927,600 70,491,896                ‐                        7,083,057                  15,565,721$                    13,552,878               84,044,774$           3.53% 66.23% 5.72% 16,845,608$                  14,948,195          85,440,091          3.69% 68.50% 5.21% Ambac 22.26%

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI7 5,245,891              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI6 6,121,499              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI1A ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI1B ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 14 of 22

Page 105: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AI5 11,523,771            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ1 AII 12,803,927            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ1 Total 42,504,000 27,276,392                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  3,419,205                  30,695,597$           2.04% 66.73% 8.40% ‐$                                 3,712,718            30,989,110          2.11% 68.00% 7.73% Ambac 15.71%

RAMP 2003‐RZ2 M1 2,525,334              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ2 A1 12,679,088            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ2 M2 2,044,927              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ2 Total 18,651,600 10,509,932                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,153,649                  11,663,581$           1.85% 65.67% 11.97% ‐$                                 1,287,489            11,797,421          1.97% 66.53% 11.18% Ambac 31.80%RAMP 2003‐RZ2 M3 81,880                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A6 14,261,959            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A5A 9,831,106              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ3 M1 4,431,961              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 M2 3,472,635              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A5B 10,923,451            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ3 Total 45,513,000 20,395,800                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,763,577                  23,159,377$           1.49% 66.18% 8.83% ‐$                                 3,094,942            23,490,742          1.54% 68.52% 7.98% Ambac 22.82%

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 M3 150,218                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ3 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 M1 14,842,099            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 A7 12,517,792            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 M2 11,943,189            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 M3 3,671,656              ‐                        ‐                              2,886,755                       3,556,944                      Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 A6 64,197,530            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ4 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RAMP 2003‐RZ4 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ4 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ4 Total 107,536,000 35,008,260                ‐                        ‐                              2,886,755$                      6,573,823                  41,582,083$           1.57% 62.96% 8.75% 3,556,944$                    7,422,318            42,430,578          1.67% 64.38% 7.92% Ambac 28.42%RAMP 2003‐RZ5 A6A 21,808,429            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A7 15,265,480            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 M2 10,861,779            ‐                        ‐                              2,405,887                       2,967,396                      AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 M1 8,089,380              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A6B 28,577,794            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 M3 548,504                 ‐                        6,076,302                  507,333                          501,324                         AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 AV ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRAMP 2003‐RZ5 Total 85,439,000 34,950,384                ‐                        6,076,302                  2,913,221$                      6,755,985                  41,706,369$           2.04% 63.68% 8.88% 3,468,720$                    7,477,893            42,428,277          2.12% 65.21% 8.06% Ambac 22.90%RASC 2001‐KS1 AI6 10,275,061            ‐                        ‐                              15,631                            30,574                           FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AI5 18,970,444            ‐                        ‐                              2,734,814                       3,360,343                      FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 AII 622,768                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRASC 2001‐KS1 Total 43,762,800 128,338,992              ‐                        ‐                              2,750,444$                      9,843,256                  138,182,248$         4.27% 86.28% 2.12% 3,390,917$                    10,474,788          138,813,780        4.45% 87.97% 1.93% FGIC 0.00%RASC 2002‐KS1 AI6 17,285,122            76,169                 420,668                     690,462                          824,468                         AmbacRASC 2002‐KS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS1 AI5 42,594,940            187,700               924,349                     6,346,802                       7,207,389                      Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS1 AIIA 10,141,322            44,689                 106,687                     852,858                          886,261                         AmbacRASC 2002‐KS1 AIIB 8,727,616              38,459                 97,148                        739,467                          768,134                         AmbacRASC 2002‐KS1 Total 77,861,800 148,825,456              347,017               1,548,852                  8,629,589$                      14,335,728               163,161,184$         3.60% 76.22% 1.94% 9,686,251$                    15,358,738          164,184,194        3.77% 78.04% 1.80% Ambac 0.00%

Page 15 of 22

Page 106: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RASC 2002‐KS4 AI6 9,114,477              915,048               1,470,443                  5,720                               13,634                           AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AI5 28,481,554            2,859,404            2,712,287                  291,508                          567,207                         AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AIIA 14,536,652            1,459,407            718,465                     32,956                            34,688                           AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 AIIB 12,390,712            1,243,965            589,794                     28,451                            29,850                           AmbacRASC 2002‐KS4 Total 64,979,500 115,200,320              6,477,823            5,490,990                  358,635$                         10,931,170               126,131,490$         3.14% 85.61% 4.42% 645,379$                        11,626,724          126,827,044        3.23% 87.23% 4.04% Ambac 0.76%RASC 2002‐KS4 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS6 AI6 8,527,643              425,085               722,111                     ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS6 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS6 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS6 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2002‐KS6 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS6 AI5 25,920,883            1,292,100            1,207,831                  ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS6 AII 15,484,958            771,892               1,108,580                  1,208,063                       1,208,063                      Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS6 Total 50,236,600 73,390,432                2,489,076            3,038,522                  1,208,063$                      5,674,229                  79,064,661$           2.23% 73.50% 3.44% 1,208,063$                    6,064,703            79,455,135          2.27% 76.25% 3.23% Ambac 3.39%

RASC 2002‐KS6 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A6 15,637,678            712,310               851,529                     1,031,150                       1,123,548                      Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 A5 50,099,005            2,282,053            4,412,030                  9,364,073                       10,016,676                   Ambac

RASC 2002‐KS8 Total 66,313,300 46,179,160                2,994,362            5,263,559                  10,395,223$                    11,640,736               57,819,896$           3.07% 84.18% 3.96% 11,140,224$                  12,411,615          58,590,775          3.18% 85.73% 3.66% Ambac 0.00%

RASC 2002‐KS8 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AI5 32,057,300            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AI6 16,627,780            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 MI1 8,294,550              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 MI2 5,924,678              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 MI3 4,882,106              ‐                        ‐                              2,295,624                       3,556,092                      Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AIIA 4,043,332              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AIIB 5,214,003              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AIII 3,121,101              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2003‐KS4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2003‐KS4 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 2003‐KS4 Total 83,145,900 52,333,468                ‐                        ‐                              2,295,624$                      10,366,115               62,699,583$           2.32% 74.77% 4.26% 3,556,092$                    11,135,049          63,468,517          2.42% 76.09% 3.99% Ambac 29.09%/8.14%

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI6 4,408,601              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AI5 24,217,361            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AIIA 6,791,278              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 AIIB 4,534,845              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS5 Total 44,589,000 29,806,584                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  6,289,252                  36,095,836$           2.50% 78.52% 4.11% ‐$                                 6,694,593            36,501,177          2.55% 80.60% 3.82% Ambac 8.11%/13.38%

RASC 2003‐KS5 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI6 10,052,842            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   2,532                              Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI4 4,418,891              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 AI5 49,853,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   807,069                         Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 A2A 10,824,007            ‐                        ‐                              690,810                          746,207                         Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 A2B 11,716,122            ‐                        ‐                              487,626                          551,683                         Ambac

RASC 2003‐KS9 Total 90,067,900 48,063,936                ‐                        ‐                              1,178,436$                      9,305,239                  57,369,175$           1.98% 76.02% 5.82% 2,107,492$                    10,006,237          58,070,173          2.05% 77.34% 5.37% Ambac 4.82%/0.00%

Page 16 of 22

Page 107: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMSI 2003‐S13 AV 29,747,847            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A2 18,260,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A3 9,027,916              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 M1 1,517,369              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 M2 465,435                 ‐                        ‐                              310,639                          332,401                         MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 M3 354,978                 ‐                        ‐                              344,505                          344,915                         MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 AP 122,049                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 B1 100                         ‐                        312,335                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A1 18,260,000            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 A7 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 B2 ‐                          ‐                        284,853                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 B3 ‐                          ‐                        513,538                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S13 Total 29,843,200 1,152,820                   ‐                        1,110,725                  655,144$                         92,155                       1,244,975$             0.34% 15.00% 9.82% 677,316$                        94,758                  1,247,578            0.33% 15.36% 9.29% MBIA 7.86%

RFMSI 2003‐S4 AV 20,050,469            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A4 11,146,417            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 M1 1,329,421              ‐                        ‐                              7,809                               9,211                              MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 M2 460,832                 ‐                        ‐                              134,981                          142,250                         MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 M3 362,732                 ‐                        ‐                              307,131                          312,218                         MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 AP 155,861                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 B1 67,596                   ‐                        49,766                        60,368                            60,396                           MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A3 6,527,000              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A7 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A8 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A9 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A10 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A11 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A12 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 A13 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 B2 ‐                          ‐                        222,214                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 B3 ‐                          ‐                        353,689                     ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIA

RFMSI 2003‐S4 Total 20,132,600 639,159                      ‐                        625,669                     510,289$                         372,188                     1,011,347$             0.69% 48.98% 11.21% 524,074$                        379,757               1,018,916            0.68% 49.46% 10.64% MBIA 11.08%

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 A6 1,203,928              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI1 Total 3,402,371 40,895,988                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  420,343                     41,316,331$           3.71% 111.80% 11.24% ‐$                                 445,284               41,341,272          3.86% 111.86% 10.47% Ambac 64.62%

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 A7 661,684                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI4 Total 2,788,291 37,981,165                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  195,212                     38,176,378$           2.08% 111.71% 12.02% ‐$                                 211,744               38,192,909          2.21% 111.81% 11.34% Ambac 76.27%

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 17 of 22

Page 108: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI7 2,236,286              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AI8 887,847                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI6 Total 5,913,600 52,614,889                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  288,679                     52,903,568$           1.42% 112.05% 12.54% ‐$                                 303,510               52,918,399          1.45% 111.94% 11.61% Ambac 47.17%

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI7 1,762,877              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AI8 287,862                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 1999‐HI8 Total 3,924,820 36,087,284                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  340,474                     36,427,758$           2.64% 112.45% 12.04% ‐$                                 360,112               36,447,396          2.72% 112.47% 11.08% Ambac 47.75%

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AI7 2,046,593              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI1 Total 4,177,430 38,091,820                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  308,807                     38,400,627$           2.17% 110.56% 11.55% ‐$                                 338,275               38,430,095          2.32% 110.59% 10.62% Ambac 51.01%

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AI5 2,238,412              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI2 Total 4,496,970 41,757,480                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  528,016                     42,285,496$           3.41% 111.72% 9.27% ‐$                                 560,642               42,318,122          3.54% 111.72% 8.40% Ambac 50.22%

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AI7 3,341,017              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI3 Total 6,274,720 54,545,532                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  519,213                     55,064,745$           2.40% 111.41% 11.19% ‐$                                 564,670               55,110,202          2.55% 111.35% 10.23% Ambac 46.75%

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AI7 4,683,582              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI4 Total 7,580,400 56,281,956                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  634,679                     56,916,635$           2.39% 111.69% 10.69% ‐$                                 685,916               56,967,872          2.52% 111.67% 9.74% Ambac 38.21%

RFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HI5 AI7 6,106,260              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HI5 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

Page 18 of 22

Page 109: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMS2 2000‐HI5 Total 8,981,260 57,645,180                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  843,807                     58,488,987$           2.60% 111.59% 8.68% ‐$                                 908,289               58,553,469          2.75% 111.62% 7.96% Ambac 32.01%RFMS2 2001‐HI1 A 3,103,105              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI1 Total 4,333,590 25,786,334                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  337,795                     26,124,129$           2.09% 111.12% 10.01% ‐$                                 368,287               26,154,621          2.24% 111.15% 9.35% Ambac 28.39%RFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AI7 1,916,227              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI2 Total 2,984,370 20,035,914                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  164,827                     20,200,741$           1.66% 111.15% 11.98% ‐$                                 179,818               20,215,732          1.76% 111.23% 11.06% Ambac 35.79%RFMS2 2001‐HI2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 AI7 7,136,117              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2001‐HI3 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI3 Total 9,313,230 42,530,960                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  898,174                     43,429,134$           2.52% 110.99% 9.81% ‐$                                 969,536               43,500,496          2.66% 110.98% 8.98% Ambac 23.38%RFMS2 2001‐HI3 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2001‐HI4 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2001‐HI4 A7 7,081,215              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HI4 Total 9,206,220 41,715,440                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  883,576                     42,599,016$           2.74% 111.09% 11.60% ‐$                                 945,401               42,660,841          2.85% 111.10% 10.68% Ambac 23.08%RFMS2 2001‐HI4 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2001‐HS2 Total 1,398,380 4,097,670                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  6,045                         4,103,715$             0.23% 112.76% 8.48% ‐$                                 6,671                    4,104,340            0.25% 112.53% 7.89% Ambac Classes PIFRFMS2 2001‐HS2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  Ambac

RFMS2 2002‐HI1 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 A7 6,980,699              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI1 Total 9,230,700 37,815,172                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  819,438                     38,634,610$           2.95% 112.02% 11.34% ‐$                                 866,646               38,681,818          3.06% 112.06% 10.51% Ambac 24.38%

RFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AI7 3,795,681              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AII 1,788,996              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI2 Total 7,209,690 27,284,040                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  569,200                     27,853,240$           2.63% 111.31% 9.99% ‐$                                 590,962               27,875,002          2.65% 111.32% 8.90% Ambac 22.54%RFMS2 2002‐HI3 A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A6 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 A7 8,375,182              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2002‐HI3 Total 10,250,200 32,152,084                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,045,575                  33,197,659$           3.27% 112.36% 7.90% ‐$                                 1,112,837            33,264,921          3.42% 112.32% 7.16% Ambac 18.29%RFMS2 2002‐HS3 Total 3,594,250 3,914,926                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  231,035                     4,145,961$             2.36% 111.88% 11.64% ‐$                                 243,082               4,158,009            2.44% 111.86% 10.61% FGIC 71.46%RFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGIC

Page 19 of 22

Page 110: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A5 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 1A6 449,294                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 2A 634,765                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2002‐HS3 AIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AI5 6,767,415              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 AII 6,672,672              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HI3 Total 16,390,400 26,662,514                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  2,015,106                  28,677,620$           3.95% 110.79% 10.99% ‐$                                 2,128,118            28,790,632          4.08% 110.80% 10.10% Ambac 16.47%/19.50%RFMS2 2003‐HS1 Total 10,071,400 7,310,844                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  456,802                     7,767,645$             1.75% 107.73% 14.79% ‐$                                 463,788               7,774,631            1.75% 107.97% 14.18% FGIC 28.94%RFMS2 2003‐HS1 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI6 824,095                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI4 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AI5 3,934,641              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS1 AII 1,633,532              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AI4 7,474,135              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 Total 17,222,500 10,341,978                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  388,053                     10,730,031$           0.79% 108.87% 14.58% ‐$                                 416,473               10,758,451          0.84% 108.84% 13.82% FGIC 23.50%RFMS2 2003‐HS2 AIIA 1,620,875              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AIIB 2,467,479              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 MI1 345,976                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AIA ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AIB ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 MI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS2 MI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  FGICRFMS2 2003‐HS3 Total 23,314,700 10,098,988                ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  1,339,457                  11,438,445$           1.98% 108.87% 16.27% ‐$                                 1,460,304            11,559,292          2.11% 108.87% 15.18% MBIA 0.00%RFMS2 2003‐HS3 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 AI3 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 AI4 13,651,768            ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 A2A 2,474,433              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 A2B 2,053,044              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS3 AIIO ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  MBIARFMS2 2003‐HS4 AIA 3,436,178              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HS4 AIB 2,378,740              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2003‐HS4 Total 8,567,730 5,533,338                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  424,538                     5,957,876$             1.20% 102.72% 8.96% ‐$                                 462,365               5,995,703            1.29% 102.57% 8.49% Ambac 14.59%RASC 1999‐RS1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 1999‐RS1 AI2 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 1999‐RS1 AI3 1,792,364              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 1999‐RS1 AII 1,120,192              ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRASC 1999‐RS1 Total 3,652,234 3,793,159                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  10,992                       3,804,151$             0.23% 33.13% 10.11% ‐$                                 13,777                  3,666,011            0.27% 34.20% 9.13% Ambac 17.49%RFMS2 2000‐HL1 AI1 ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HL1 AI2 361,718                 ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HL1 AII ‐                          ‐                        ‐                              ‐                                   ‐                                  AmbacRFMS2 2000‐HL1 Total 1,031,029 8,105,735                   ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  21,183                       8,126,918$             1.22% 45.31% 7.69% ‐$                                 25,197                  8,130,932            1.41% 46.32% 7.35% Ambac 64.92%GMACM 2004‐JI IO 37,035,243.92 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A3 16,774,000.00 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A20 16,660,094.88 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI M1 2,361,777.14 ‐                        ‐                              77,530$                           121,027$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI M2 953,508.19 ‐                        ‐                              587,998$                         624,219$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A21 876,916.16 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI M3 633,882.45 ‐                        ‐                              633,882$                         633,882$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI B1 179,507.84 ‐                        229,904                     165,534$                         164,818$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI PO 163,997.89 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A4 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A5 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A6 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A7 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A8 781,707$               ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A9 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A10 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

Page 20 of 22

Page 111: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

GMACM 2004‐JI A11 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A12 ‐$                        ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A13 1,693,031$            ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A1 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A2 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A14 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A15 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A16 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A17 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A18 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI Total 41,078,423$         1,079,779$                ‐$                      1,113,980$                 1,464,944$                      1,774,653                  2,854,432$             0.43% 57.02% 6.40% 1,543,947$                    1,852,225            2,932,004            0.47% 56.92% 6.29% MBIA 10.05%GMACM 2004‐JI A19 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI A22 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI B2 0 ‐                        404,083                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐JI B3 0 ‐                        479,992                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 WAC_IO 30,679,090.47 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A10 15,303,291.14 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A7 7,203,716.72 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A4 3,027,366.41 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 M1 3,014,988.16 ‐                        ‐                              93,243$                           159,730$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A9 1,445,278.95 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 M2 1,283,429.16 ‐                        ‐                              1,074,921$                      1,116,901$                    MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A11 830,234.16 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 PO 715,390.36 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 M3 690,504.76 ‐                        60,560                        667,972$                         666,957$                        MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A12 471,157.88 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A8 17,566,000$         ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 Total 51,551,358$         1,776,708$                ‐$                      1,683,480$                 1,836,135$                      2,236,917                  4,013,625$             0.49% 47.01% 7.70% 1,943,588$                    2,349,927            4,126,635            0.53% 48.59% 7.54% MBIA 9.68%GMACM 2004‐J2 A1 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A2 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A3 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A5 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 A6 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 B1 0 ‐                        551,762                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 B2 0 ‐                        513,428                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGMACM 2004‐J2 B3 0 ‐                        557,730                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIAGSR 2007‐HEL1 Total 26,894,539$         56,359,724$              65,349,240$       ‐$                             4,469,033$                      5,134,028                  61,493,752$           3.42% 105.81% 11.11% 4,992,354$                    5,772,318            62,132,042          3.65% 105.84% 9.82% MBIA 0.00%GSR 2007‐HEL1 A 26,089,153$           63,388,763$       ‐$                             4,335,203$                      4,842,853$                    MBIAGSR 2007‐HEL1 S 805,386$                 1,960,477$          ‐$                             133,830$                         149,501$                        MBIARAST 2003‐A10 AX 47,538,659.35 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 A4 18,887,098.24 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 A1 14,384,320.49 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 A3 9,150,000.00 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 B1 6,155,771.76 ‐                        ‐                              1,914,790$                      2,138,816$                    MBIARAST 2003‐A10 A5 3,665,430.26 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 B2 1,455,136.94 ‐                        ‐                              1,356,057$                      1,370,208$                    MBIARAST 2003‐A10 B3 1,145,750.05 ‐                        ‐                              1,111,669$                      1,109,363$                    MBIARAST 2003‐A10 PO 470,749.07 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 B4 7,900.37 ‐                        633,769                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 A2 13,725,000$         ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 Total 69,047,157$         2,041,563$                ‐$                      2,453,310$                 4,382,516$                      2,982,547                  5,024,110$             1.08% 51.80% 5.29% 4,618,388$                    3,198,258            5,239,821            1.16% 51.67% 5.14% MBIA 12.69%RAST 2003‐A10 B5 0 ‐                        362,650                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A10 B6 0 ‐                        1,456,891                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A3 20,754,852.88 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A4 20,754,852.88 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A9 15,081,000.00 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B1 10,745,024.60 ‐                        ‐                              131,687$                         209,910$                        MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A12 3,538,858.26 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B2 2,710,243.41 ‐                        ‐                              1,441,889$                      1,594,424$                    MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B3 2,237,768.32 ‐                        ‐                              2,235,149$                      2,236,162$                    MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A5 2,000,000.00 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A7 1,984,866.76 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B4 938,532.19 ‐                        ‐                              938,532$                         938,532$                        MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A10 937,820.85 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B6 623,315.07 ‐                        1,580,565                  623,315$                         623,315$                        MBIARAST 2003‐A7 B5 377,621.67 ‐                        ‐                              377,622$                         377,622$                        MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A11 255,769.32 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 PO 41,208.48 ‐                        ‐                              1,746$                             1,774$                            MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A8 15,081,000$         18,182$               ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 Total 62,345,039$         1,175,993$                18,182$               1,580,565$                 5,749,940$                      3,873,567                  5,049,560$             1.43% 58.25% 5.81% 5,981,739$                    4,078,193            5,254,186            1.50% 58.29% 5.66% MBIA 28.47%RAST 2003‐A7 A1 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

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ResCap Proposed Settlement

Trust Level Model

Monoline Estimated Loss

September 2013 Distribution

Shelf Series Class Curr OB

 Collateral Cum Loss To 

Date 

 Monoline Payment 

To Date  Bonds Loss To Date 

 Lower Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward 

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Lower Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Lower 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Lower Ranger ‐ 

Severity

Lower Range ‐

CRR

Higher Range ‐ Bonds 

Expected Loss Going 

Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Loss Going Forward

Higher Range ‐ 

Collateral Expected 

Cum Loss Total

Higher 

Range ‐ 

CDR

Higher Range ‐

Sev

Higher 

Range ‐ CRRMonoline CE %

RAST 2003‐A7 A2 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A6 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A13 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2003‐A7 A14 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 AX 234,874,680.81 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A3 69,396,696.16 ‐                        3,811,327                  13,307,868$                    14,319,282$                  MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A6 67,920,441.78 ‐                        3,730,250                  14,515,374$                    15,512,720$                  MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A7 67,920,441.78 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A1 43,891,814.40 ‐                        ‐                              8,574,945$                      9,234,153$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 3A2 32,665,486.00 ‐                        266,794                     12,404,079$                    12,980,809$                  MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A8 28,684,982.25 ‐                        1,575,404                  5,500,780$                      5,918,846$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 3A1 28,580,504.08 ‐                        233,430                     10,852,887$                    11,357,494$                  MBIARAST 2006‐A1 2A1 24,132,474.25 ‐                        502,653                     4,810,076$                      5,149,205$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 3A3 8,535,538.07 ‐                        69,714                        3,241,203$                      3,391,904$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 3A4 8,489,121.21 ‐                        971,663                     3,223,578$                      3,373,458$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A4 3,917,545.31 ‐                        215,155                     837,224$                         894,750$                        MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A5 3,917,545.31 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 PO 1,609,522.26 ‐                        383,419                     179,750$                         200,139$                        MBIARAST 2006‐A1 1A2 1,032,608.90 ‐                        2,428,762                  39,994$                           35,532$                          MBIARAST 2006‐A1 WRAP_1A8 312,371,618$       5,754,498$          ‐$                             3,487,603$                      3,752,781$                    MBIARAST 2006‐A1 2A2 0 ‐                        1,508,529                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 3A5 0 ‐                        7,418,722                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB1 0 ‐                        12,856,714                ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB2 0 ‐                        13,702,221                ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB3 0 ‐                        3,359,416                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB1 0 ‐                        5,081,912                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB2 0 ‐                        2,130,089                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB3 0 ‐                        1,423,707                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 P 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB4 0 ‐                        3,082,041                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB5 0 ‐                        2,526,398                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IB6 0 ‐                        1,691,211                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB4 0 ‐                        1,071,324                  ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB5 0 ‐                        834,296                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 IIB6 0 ‐                        716,936                     ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARAST 2006‐A1 Total 312,371,618$       70,130,992$              5,754,498$          71,592,088$              80,975,360$                    35,730,838               105,861,830$         2.61% 56.84% 5.89% 86,121,071$                  39,731,986          109,862,978        2.77% 58.30% 5.39% MBIA 6.65%/4.75%RFMSI 2004‐SR1  Total 14,503,630$         5,046,456$                ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐                             5,046,456$             0.13% 27.11% 24.31% ‐$                                 ‐                        5,046,456            0.19% 28.31% 22.69% MBIA 3.34%RFMSI 2004‐SR1  A5 484,300.30 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSI 2004‐SR1  A4 14,019,000$         ‐$                      ‐$                             ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

RFMSI 2004‐SR1  A1 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSI 2004‐SR1  A2 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIARFMSI 2004‐SR1  A3 0 ‐                        ‐                              ‐$                                  ‐$                                 MBIA

x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

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ANNEX G

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© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved.

White Paper EARLY PAYMENT DEFAULT – LINKS TO FRAUD AND IMPACT ON MORTGAGE LENDERS AND INVESTMENT BANKS

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Executive Summary

BasePoint wanted to investigate the link between fraud and its impact on early payment performance

BasePoint Analytics worked with several lenders over the past year to investigate and understand the increasing trends in Early Payment Default (EPD). Early Payment Defaults are typically classified as loans which become delinquent by more than sixty days in their first year. However, this definition varies by lender. Overall, lenders are experiencing an increase in serious delinquency within the first several months of the loan life. In particular, non-prime lenders are being hit by this trend.

One of the goals of the BasePoint study was to investigate the link between fraud and payment trends during the early life of a loan. In general, the earlier the serious delinquency occurs, the more likely it is linked to a significant misrepresentation on the original loan application.

Millions of historic loans were examined during the study

The fraud scientists at BasePoint Analytics, a leading fraud analytics and consulting firm, analyzed over 3 million loans that were originated between 1997 and 2006. The 3 million loans reviewed included over 16,000 examples of early payment defaults and loans that went into foreclosure.

BasePoint found that the percentage of EPD loans that can be attributed to a fraudulent misrepresentation on the original application varies from between 30% and 70%. The ratio varies based on a number of factors, including Portfolio type, Loan program, Underwriting policies, and EDP/FPD definitions and measurement periods.

The main drivers of EPD identified in the study were:

1. Loan program risk – e.g. Purchase, 80/20, Stated Income 2. Broker risk - Prior and current risk of broker 3. Borrower credit profile 4. Borrower income levels and employment characteristics 5. First Time Home Buyers 6. Seller Concessions 7. Geographic risk related to property and prior fraud experience

in that area

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A small percentage of brokers accounted for most of the risk

The study also demonstrated that a small percentage of brokers contribute a disproportionate amount of loans that result in EPD. At one lender studied, less than 10% of brokers accounted for 100% of EPD, fraud and repurchase requests. This outcome was not unique. This study revealed that nearly all the EPD loans came through a small number of brokers.

Traditional credit risk tools don’t predict default risk well when the underlying information in the application is fraud

And finally, the study found that when egregious misrepresentations are made on a mortgage application, the value of the credit score to predict EPD deteriorates. Traditionally mortgage lenders and investment banks have relied on credit scores to assess the risk of a borrower. Credit scores effectively predict risk when the facts on the application are true. However, when a borrower or broker misrepresents fundamental characteristics such as: income, employment, debt or the value of the property, the credit score risk assessment isn’t as effective.

BasePoint also found that predictive analytics can be employed to effectively identify 40% or more of Early Payment Default risk prior to loan funding. This provides lenders and investment banks with a valuable tool in controlling their EDP losses.

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Understanding the Relationship between Early Payment Default (EPD) and Mortgage Fraud

Through its work with leading mortgage lenders, BasePoint has had the opportunity to review data from several lenders to analyze linkages between EPD and material misrepresentations on the original loan application, classified as fraud.

BasePoint analyzed over 3 million loans that were originated between 1997 and 2006. The 3 million loans reviewed included over 16,000 loans that were confirmed to contain egregious misrepresentations in the loan file that later led to a default. These misrepresentations included fraud such as: income inflated by as much as 500%, appraisals that overvalued the property by 50% or more, fictitious employers and falsified tax returns.

The study concluded that misrepresentations can grossly affect the risk of a loan, finding that loans containing egregious misrepresentations were up to 5 times more likely to default in the first six months than loans that did not.

BasePoint found that the percentage of EPD loans that can be linked to a fraudulent misrepresentation on the original application varies from between 30% and 70%. The ratio varies based on a number of factors including Portfolio type, Loan program, Underwriting policies, and EDP/FPD definitions and measurement periods.

The main drivers of fraud and EPD identified in the study are:

Loan program risk (for example, stated income, low doc, 100% CLTV, and low credit profile)

Broker risk

Borrower credit profile (either low credit profile or credit profile er)

els and employment characteristics

Seller Concessions

Geographic risk related to property and prior fraud experience in that area

not matching loan program – an indication of a straw buy

Borrower income lev

First Time Home Buyers

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The BasePoint study uncovered that the most common reasons for EPD were comprised of these layered risk factors (several factors combined to create high risk applications), including:

Credit risk not matching with stated income (for example, low credit scores and high income)

Age not matching with income (young borrower, very high income)

Key misrepresentation types that demonstrated to be indicators of Earl P ult include:

Stated income

Stated income loans were higher risk overall in terms of fraud levels. The stu floans m hers:

ir total book of business were higher risk.

performance and submitting stated income loans were more likely to

Eighth Periodic Mortgage Fraud Case Report to the Mortgage Bankers Association in April 2006 that one of their customers reviewed a sample of 100 stated income loans and found that when compared to IRS figures, “almost 60% of the stated amounts were exaggerated by more than 50%.” Clearly these types of income exaggerations significantly increase the risk of default.

First Time Homebuyer with 100% CLTV loans

Self Employed Borrowers combined with other risk factors

y ayment Defa

Occupancy

Property valuation (for example, appraisals not matching the area or neighborhood)

dy ound that there are specific drivers that made certain stated income ore risky than ot

Degree to which the stated income exceeded normal income for a given ZIP code.

Broker’s risk level - brokers that submitted more stated income loans as a percentage of the

Broker’s historical performance in terms of the number of prior loans that resulted in fraud or EPD. Brokers that had higher risk of bad

be involved in fraud.

Stated income compared to the Debt to Income ratio (DTI). A higher DTI and a higher income indicated a higher risk of income fabrication.

The Mortgage Asset Research Institute, Inc. (MARI) reported in their

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 5

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The BasePoint study also determined that a small percentage of brokers contribute a disproportionate amount of loans that result in EPD. At one non-prime lender studied, less than 10% of brokers accounted for 100% of EPD, fraud and repurchase requests. This was not unique to this lender. In general, the study revealed that EPD is concentrated within certain brokers, with nearly all the bad loans linked to a relatively small amount of brokers.

Early Payment Default risk is concentrated to a very few brokers

BasePoint discovered that most risk of early payment default for lenders came from approximately 6% to 8% of brokers. The overwhelming majority of brokers submitted no early payment defaults, even those brokers that submitted extremely high volumes.

Brokers that submit loans with homogenous characteristics, such as common employers, and loans with more combined risk factors, such as CLTV, Loan Type, Credit Score, and Employment Type, will be more likely to have loans involved in early pay defaults, discount sales and repurchase requests.

Mortgage brokers originate the majority of non-prime mortgages and the current broker incentive structure is completely focused on closing as many loans as possible at the most favorable terms for the lender. Brokers are not accountable for the quality or performance of the loan once it closes. When a loan closes, in addition to their broker fee, they may also receive a yield-spread premium from the lender for closing a higher interest rate loan. The brokers have a financial incentive to place borrowers into loans with higher interest rates than they might otherwise qualify to obtain. This incentive structure, along with stated income and low documentation loan programs, provide ample opportunity for the small number of unscrupulous brokers to take advantage of the system by perpetrating fraud and by closing loans with an increased propensity to default.

The study also revealed that geography impacts EPD rates. At one lender included in the study, the top 20 risky areas accounted for about 14% of volume, but accounted for 45% of EPD, 25% of confirmed frauds, and 20% of repurchased loans.

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 6

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And finally, the study found that when egregious misrepresentations are made on a mortgage application, the value of the credit score to predict EPD deteriorates. Traditionally mortgage lenders and investment banks have relied on credit scores to assess the risk of a borrower. Credit scores effectively predict risk when the facts on the application are true. However, when a borrower or broker misrepresents fundamental characteristics such as: income, employment, debt or the value of the property, the credit score risk assessment isn’t as effective.

Findings on the Impact of EDP

The increase in early payment defaults is placing a profitability strain on originators. The majority of US mortgage loans are packaged and sold on the secondary market to investment banks. The investment banks have the right to return purchased loans if they experience EPD generally in the first 90 days after purchase (however the time period can vary by agreement).

Correlated to the increase in EPD being seen throughout the industry, an increase in associated repurchase requests is putting financial pressure on many lenders, especially those with large non-prime portfolios. This has been the cause of several prominent lenders going out of business or selling their non-prime wholesale lending units during late 2006 and early 2007. Other lenders have been forced to dramatically increase their loss reserves, causing quarterly losses and significant impacts on company valuations.

“Many lenders are facing increases in repurchase requests and early payment defaults. In an effort to help lenders deal with these challenges, BasePoint has rigorously studied the issue and found a direct correlation between EPD and mortgage fraud,” said Tim Grace, president and CEO of BasePoint. “We can demonstrate for lenders and investment banks how they can substantially reduce their EPD losses, often within a short period of time. The cost of mortgage fraud is borne by every person or family who buys or sells a home. That’s why BasePoint continues to focus on developing advanced software solutions to put a stop to mortgage fraud before it happens.”

One of the study’s primary findings was the tremendous impact of EPD on lender profitability. Lenders are experiencing as much as $100 million per month in First Payment Defaults alone. The study found that EPD rates vary considerably by lender, based on factors such as loan program mix, and underwriting policy. What the lenders share is a common concern regarding an EPD escalation trend.

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Lender impact examples:

EPD Rate (percentage of origination volume)

Measurement Period

Lender A 2.5% First month

Lender B 4.0% First month

Lender C 8.0% First 8 months

As a result of the increases in EPD and associated loan repurchase requests lenders are taking drastic action to curtail losses:

Making sweeping changes to underwriting policy

Eliminating underperforming loan programs

sentially forces lenders to reduce their origination volumes (through major underwriting policy changes or

e results in higher loss ratios and less revenue to offset losses which will continue to roll through from loans

core cutoffs. For non-prime lenders, this can actually make

Selling portfolios

Modifying profitability projections

In addition, investment banks are no longer willing to purchase pools of loans from loan programs that have demonstrated higher incidents of EPD. This gives the lender few options other than to curtail those programs entirely. This es

loan program eliminations).

While many of these changes may appear prudent given the current environment, BasePoint believes that there are more targeted, data-driven solutions to retain the good origination volume that will now be lost, while substantially reducing both fraud and EPD risk. Now is the time that lenders need to preserve as many new loans which would perform as well as possible, while strategically eliminating fraud as well as loans with a high risk of EPD. Eliminating good loan volume through these dramatic and overarching policy changes can in fact exacerbate their profit squeeze in the short-term. Increasing defaults and shrinking origination volum

originated in 2005 and 2006.

It is also important to note that as this study has revealed, EPD is not solely a credit-quality issue. Many lenders, especially in the non-prime market, have reacted to this increase in their EPD losses by making sweeping policy changes, including somewhat arbitrary increases in credit s

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both the fraud and EPD problem worse, as adverse selection takes place.

Here is an example of how this adverse selection can happen. In an effort to fend off increasing delinquencies, a lender may choose to increase their minimum credit score cut-offs. In doings so, many performing loans will now been eliminated with the credit score cut-off increase. While it may lower the overall number of EPD loans, the rate may actually get worse. Now the loans they are booking are higher credit score, non-prime loans. These higher credit score borrowers should be able to qualify for a prime product. BasePoint has found this to be a risky population in sub-prime portfolios. They may actually carry more risk than the segment that has been eliminated. As a

manage their delinquency risk. However, this study found that while average credit scores have been

creasing in many loan pools, fraud rates, default rates and loan rates are also on the rise.

nt study was also designed to evaluate the effectiveness of predictive analytics in identifying EPD risk during the

the loans to be rejected pre-funding. In fact, predictive models such as BasePoint’s FraudMark™ for Origination

D risk. The following chart demonstrates that at a 15% review rate, FraudMark for Origination detects over 35% of EPD dollars re-funding, which is 260% better than the credit score in predicting

EPD risk.

result of the increased credit score requirement, the originator may adversely select a more risky population.

Mortgage originators are not alone in their concern for this increase in EPD. Investment banks that purchase pools of mortgage loans are also impacted by this trend. Traditionally, investment banking firms relied on credit and compliance tools to

inrepurchase

Tools to Mitigate EPD Losses

In addition to investigating the relationship between fraud and EPD, and understanding the impact of EPD on lenders and investment banks, the BasePoi

origination process for lenders, and the due diligence process for investment banks.

The study concluded that predictive models can be deployed early in the loan process to help lenders predict which loans are likely to default early, enabling

correctly identify 40% of a lender’s loans pre-funding that, if booked, would result in EPD.

As a part of this study, a sample of loans was evaluated to determine the effectiveness of the credit score and the FraudMark score to identify EP

p

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 9

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R eviewRate

C redit ScoreEPD $

De n tectioRat e

FraudMark™ for O ion riginat

EPD $ Detect ate ion R

FraudMark Lift over

C redit ScoreDetecti n o

5% 5% 14% 180%

10% 7% 27% 286%

15% 10% 36% 260%

This illustrates that a predictive model built specifically to target fraud can also accurately identify EPD risk. This is not surprising now that

ed

other credit risk factors and socio-economic factors that

ed in various sectors of the financial services industry for many

we understand the inherent relationships between EPD and fraud.

FraudMark uses sophisticated analytic scoring technology to identify suspicious mortgage loan applications, enabling the lender to quickly and effectively stop them before funding. These models accurately predict the likelihood of a loan containing fraud that will result in financial loss to the lender. FraudMark enables lenders to decrease fraud losses by automatically identifying loans that have the highest associated fraud risk. Over the past year FraudMark has helplenders prevent nearly $1 billion in suspicious loans from funding.

But as demonstrated, the overlap between EPD and fraud is not complete. There are credit risk factors and other significant events such as natural disaster, medical crisis, and loss of employment that impact EPD and are unrelated to fraud. BasePoint is in the process of designing a predictive analytic solution to more specifically target EPD, and will include both the indicators of fraud that are also linked to EPD, as well on thepredict EPD.

The concept of mining historical loan applications for data patterns that provide clues to when an application is fraudulent or has a high propensity for EPD is a technique called “pattern recognition”. This technique to detect fraud in its earliest stages has been successfully employyears.

One of the most important aspects of building a successful predictive model is selecting the model target. When a single model is used to attack multiple business problems, thus multiple targets, often the

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 10

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performance of the model deteriorates. That is why BasePoint recommends a multiple-model approach to successfully attack the unique but related business problems of fraud and Early Payment

Due to the impact of broker risk on EPD losses, broker monitoring is

hnology produces a score that indicates the level of risk on any given broker, and is

monitoring solutions can help lenders and investment banks quickly and precisely reduce their EPD

sses and improve their profitability.

itigate their EPD exposure. These tools have been successfully used in other segments of the financial industry for

Lenders and investment banks alike are taking action to adopt analytic solutions to help control EPD.

Default.

another way to help lenders control their risk.

BasePoint had found that brokers who submit loans with homogenous characteristics, such as common employers, and loans with more combined risk factors, such as CLTV, riskier loan types, credit score, and employment type, are more likely to have loans involved in early pay defaults, discount sales and repurchase requests. Because of this, BasePoint has developed patent-pending Dynamic TRAITS™ technology, which tracks the history of a broker to catch anomalies and escalation of risk over time. The TRAITS tec

refreshed daily to augment the FraudMark score.

These predictive analytic and broker

lo

Lenders are Taking Action to Mitigate EPD Risk

EPD is a significant and growing financial issue for lenders. While there are thousands of unique scenarios that can lead to EPD, the patterns and trends can be detected with advanced analytic solutions. In addition to established underwriting and due diligence practices, advanced analytics and pattern recognition can be leveraged to help lenders m

decades.

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 11

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About BasePoint Analytics

BasePoint Analytics is a leading fraud analytics and consulting company serving the mortgage and banking industries. Using science to analyze historical transactions, BasePoint develops advanced fraud and EPD scores to fit each organization's unique needs. Lenders benefit from sophisticated predictive analytics that quickly identify fraudulent and other risky activity, minimizing losses while accelerating the processing of performing applications and transactions. Leveraging a client’s existing technology, BasePoint provides clients with immediate results and quick return on investment.

Leading Scientists and Top Industry Consultants BasePoint's team of renowned scientists is dedicated to building state-of-the-art predictive models using the latest advanced techniques. Our fraud and EPD specialists have innovated transactional, application and account-based models that are detecting fraud and EPD in some of the largest organizations across the globe. BasePoint is committed to investing heavily in research and development to provide you with the industry's most effective defense against fraud.

Having successfully managed fraud and risk operations for dozens of the world's highest profile organizations, BasePoint's elite team of consultants has deep domain expertise. Clients can have confidence these professionals will successfully guide you to significant fraud and risk reduction through the integration of analytic models, tools, strategy alignment, and operational best-in-class processes.

A Global Focus Fraud and EPD risk do not have geographic boundaries and neither does BasePoint. Our experts have spent years understanding the global nature of fraud and risk migration, and more than a decade researching fraud, risk trends and management throughout the world. Whether your organization is local, national, or spans many continents, we have the expertise and solutions to help.

© 2007 BasePoint Analytics LLC All Rights Reserved. BasePoint Confidential 12

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ANNEX H

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Analyzing GSE Mortgage Buyback Demands: Lender lmpact Varies Significantly

GSE Buyback Demand Activity: 2006-2008(Dollars in Miilions)

Repiiichasd Demandt::ir,' Ll---- jt i iii bispqsiiion,at oCmands

Rank Seller/Oriqinator Volume Pct Assets Repurchased Wthdrawn Disputed Pending

IIttIIIIllIIlIllIIIIIrl

1

2

3

4(6

7

q

10

11

12

13

14

'16

17

'18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

33

34

35

COUNTRYWDE

WELLS FARGO

CHASE HOME FINANCE

BANK OF AMERICA

CITIMORTGAGE

SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC.

GMAC MORTGAGE/ALLY

TAYLOR, BEAN & W-IITAKER MORTGAGE

FLAGSTAR BANK, FSB

U.S. BANK N.A.

AMSOUTH BANK

WASHINGTON MUTUAL

NATIONAL CITY BANK

INDYMAC BANK, FSB

WACHOVIA MORTGAGE, FSB

LEHMAN BROTHERS

MORGAN STANLEY

HSBC MORTGAGE CORPORATION (USA)

FIRST HORIZON HOME LOAN

ABN AMRO MORTGAGE GROUP, INC.

EMC MORTGAGE CORPORATION

FIFTH THIRD BANK

GREENPOINT MORTGAGE FUNDING, INC.

OHIO SAVINGS BANK

DB STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, INC.

PHH MORTGAGE/CENDANT

FREEDOM MORTGAGE CORPORATION

BRANCH BANKING & TRUST

GOLDMAN SACHS MORTGAGE COMPANY

HOMEBANC MORTGAGE CORPORATION

PULTE MORTGAGE LLC

REGIONS BANK

DLJ MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC,

BANKUNITED, FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK

MORTGAGE ACCESS/WEICHERT FINANCIAL

s16,2'16.06

$7,073.59

$6,766.26

$5,373.05

$3,966.04

$3,026.1 1

$1,537.81

$1,464.46

$1,224.15

s1,094.07

$996.93

$979.84

$744.1 E

$736.87

$714.08

$71 1.96

$638.70

$580.65

$521.36

$493.62

$491.62

$490.1 2

$403.94

$326.03

$283.0 1

$279.84

$278.35

$21 2.39

$1 97.98

$110.12

$95.95

$90.30

$80.05

977.94

$69.79

$69.08

966.81

$65.60

$53.36

$44.31

$42.76

$40.22

$36.91

$32.23

$30.82

$29.41

$27.54

$26.1 0

$25.75

$23.36

$22.55

$21.1 6

$19.7s

$18.04

$17.00

$1 6.94

5.47% 15.45%

6.14% 7.75%

2.860/0 8.25o/o

8.460/o 11.25%

1.49% 16.?204

1.81% 12.37%

0.50% z.ovlo

0.63% 0.26%

1.360/o 19.'l9o/o

5.290k 4.93%

2.37o/o 10.35%

3.77o/o 12.93o/o

1.11Vo 19.67%

1.360/0 2.34%

3.72o/o 9.79%

O.O7o/o 67 .89o/o

1.74o/o 4.6o0/o

O.74o/o 9.20ok

2.43Vo 18.24%

2.88% 12.37%

4.81Vo 9.96%

0.80o/o 2.99o/o

1.18% 25.12%

1.72Vr 7 .O7ok

6.69% 4.270k

1.46% 16.O10/o

1.1'lo/o 18.05%

2.960/o 3.84%

5.64"/o 7.8O%

3.12o/o 2.354/o

6.810/o 2'1.98o/o

2.40o/o 4.7 4o/o

9.25o/o 3.28%

0.00% o.48%

3.51o/o 15.68%

4.49o/o 2.78o/o

1.91Vo 7 .77%

2.97o/o 16.06%

9.19% 2.500/o

o.770/o 12.51%

0.85% 0.00%

'16.310/o 2.260/0

6.85% 1o.83o/o

1.17o/o 6.310/o

0.00% 0.00%

7.98o/o LO4Vo

1s.15% 22.01%

0.00% 1.24%

0.00% 54.35o/o

1.24o/o 10.05%

1.660/o 16.53%

3.87"/" 2.860/o

0.00% '14.650/o

4.31o/o 2.78o/o

15-72o/o 4.77o/o

0.55% 12.14o/o

3.13%

1.AsVo

3.24%

3.44%

2.430h

3.08%

1.49%

3.12Vo

2.460/o

1.9AYo

2.79o/"

0.96%

1.85Vo

1.30o/o

1.63%

2.600/o

6.25%

2.60%

1.90%

1.61%

7.O4Vo

2.15o/o

9.90%

1.57%

8.48%

0.79%

4.76Vo

1.O2%

3.04Vo

3.59o/o

1.28o/o

1.14%

4.14%

6.15%

1.93o/o

1.98%

O.47Vo

0.84Vo

5.88%

1.31%

20.1'lo/o

2.91o/o

1.55%

0.87%

41.97o/o

o.72%

2.12o/o

17.O8%

2.75%

1.05o/o

3.11o/o

1.48o/o

O.7Eo/o

1.43o/o

1.650/o

2.2Oo/o

47.71o/o 32.40%

49.76% 43.11o/o

52.060/0 4O.72d/o

39.46% 42.18%

53.50% 29.72o/o

57.39% 32.77o/o

67.56"/o 35.62%

24.12Vo 23.2Oo/o

4D.92o/o 39.02o/o

49.04% 45.45%

51.47o/o 36.10%

90.33% 36j70h

64.460/o 16.21%

82.91o/o 13.14Vo

65.92% 2O.85o/o

3.7Oo/o 9.05%

36.65% 70.310/o

69.43% 21.960/o

46.170/o 34.91%

50.10% 40.79%

53.53% 66.50%

56.89% 43.02%

39.33% 38.670/o

53.25o/o 38.21Vo

45.74% 56.'13%

34.54o/o 50.84%

55.89% 25.35%

61.05% 33.39%

35.58% 61.68Yo

45.17o/o 52.76Vo

15.58o/o 55.620/0

72.08o/o 25.39%

40.35% 74.22%

7.27o/o 92.03%

23.72% 58.98%

31.600/o 67 .49%

53.97% 36.340/o

55.55% 28.33o/o

22.35% 68.29%

56.99% 29.73%

57.35ok 62.9'10/o

41.31% 53.80%

21 .83Vo 61.27oh

63.61% 33.60%

0.00% 100.0070

21.43% 63.47%

29.78% 33.05%

55.33% 79.41%

35.28% 'l9.37o/o

62.06% 27.17%

5O.28o/o 31.52o/o

59.15% 36.140/o

67.880/o 17.47Vo

1.45o/o 41.35o/o

23.A6% 68.72d/o

34.46% 52.85o/o

36 PROVIDENT FUNDING ASSOCIATES

37 USAA FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK

38 SOVEREIGN BANK

39 E"TRADE BANK

40 IRWN MORTGAGE CORPORATION

41 FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF NEVADA

42 CENTEX/HAR\AIf,ODSTREETFUNDING

43 CHEVY CHASE BANK FSB

44 PNC MORTGAGE

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

53

54

55

56

GOLDEN FIRST MORTGAGE CORPORATION

M&T MORTGAGE CORPORATION

CTX MORTGAGE COMPANY LLC

NOMURA CREDIT & CAPITAL, INC.

UNIVERSAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION

COLONIAL SAVINGS FA

OPTEUM FINANCIAL SERVICES, LLC

R&G MORTGAGE CORPORATION

DO\\NEY SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION

AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE CORPORATION

MORTGAGE LENDERS NETWORK USA, INC

METLIFE HOME LOANS

Copyright @ lnside Mortgage Finance Publications (301) 951-1240 Page 11

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Analyzing GSE Mortgage Buyback Demands: Lender lmpact Varies Significantly

Reaurclase Demands Disposition of DemandsRank Seller/Orioinator Volume Pct Assets Reourchased Wthdrawn DisDuted Pendino

646 THE FARMERS AND MECHANICS BANK

648 MVB MORTGAGE CORPORATION

649 HERITAGE FEDERAL CREDIT UNION

650 ALTRA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION

653 COMMUNITY NATIONAL BANK

652 MINSTER BANK

651 PEOPLES COMMUNITY BANK

655 MAUCH CHUNKTRUST CO,

654 THE CITIZENS SAVINGS BANK

656 FINANCIAL PLUS FEDERAL CREDIT UNION

657 AMERICAN BANK & TRUST

658 VANDYK MORTGAGE CORPORATION

659 FARMERS CITIZENS BANK

660 CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION

661 MARKLEBANK

662 DAKOTALAND FEDERAL CREDIT UNION

663 DHCU COMMUNIry CREDIT UNION

664 CARLSBAD NATIONAL BANK

665 DELTA COUNTY CREDIT UNION

666 COMMUNITY TRUST BANK, INC

668 GOLDEN MORTGAGE BANKERS

667 THE NATIONAL BANK

669 HEART\ /ELL MORTGAGE CORPORATION

670 FIRST FARMERS BANK & TRUST

671 FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF GRANT PARK

672 TO\AA AND COUNTRY BANC IiIORTGAGE SERVICES

673 MID-IVIISSOURI MORTGAGECOMPANY

674 NEWREPUBLIC SAVINGS BANK

675 WEST END BANK, S.B.

676 INDIANA UNIVERSIry CREDIT UNION

677 AMERICANTRUST FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK

678 THE STATE BANK AND TRUST COMPANY

579 HERGETBANK, NATIONALASSOCIATION

680 CHEVIOT SAVINGS BANK

681 FIRST FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK OF IOWA

682 CFCU COMMUNITY CREDIT UNION

683 BAYBANK

684 PULASKI BANK, A SAVINGS BANK

685 IDAHO CENTRAL CREDIT UNION

686 SOY CAPITAL BANK AND TRUST COMPANY

687 MACKINAC SAVINGS BANK

688 NORTHERN MICHIGAN BANK & TRUST

Grand Total

$0.08

$0.08

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.07

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

s0 06

0.28o/o

5.28o/o

0.14o/o

0.06%

O.19Yo

0.52o/o

1.O8o/o

o.37%

o.45%

0.86%

o.1404

$0.07 11.26Vo

o.92%

0.27%

0.37%

1.48Vo

0.20%

O.'l9o/o

0.31o/o

0.05%

0.55%

1j8%0.78%

0.08%

0_06%

$0.06 12.10%

o.oo%

o.oo%

o.oo%

1 00.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

100.00%

100.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

100.00%

1 00.00%

1 00.00%

100.00%

100.00%

O.0oo/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

100.00%

0.007o

100.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

O.0oo/o

0.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

1 00.00%'t 00.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

100.00%

45.54%

1 00.00%

100.000/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

O.OOo/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

O.OOo/o

O.OOVI

0.00%

0.00%

o.oo%

0.00%

o.o0%

o.o0%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

O.0oo/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

o.oo%

0.00%

o.oo%

O.00Vo

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

O.0Oo/o

0.00%

O.jOYo

0.00%

O.OOo/o

0.00%

0.00o/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

12.58%

0.00% 100.00%

0.00% 100 00%

$0.06

$0.05

$0.05

$0.05

$0.0s

$0.05

$0.05

$0.04

$0.04

$0.03

$0.03

$0.03

90.03

$0.02

$0.02

$65.836.91

0.41%

0.28Vo

0.41o/o

0.39%

0.11vo

O.260/o

o.25Vo

0.09%

0.17%

0.24%

0.190h

0.18%

0.19%

7.75%

0.03%

2.40%

1 00.00%

0.00%

o.oovo

1 00.00%

0.00%

0.00%

425.OOV|

0.00%

'100.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

39.34Vo

1 00.00%

1 00.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

O.OOVI

0.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

'100.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

100.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

1 00.00%

1 00.00%

0.00%

35.75%

0.000/o

0.00%

0.000/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

O.0Oo/o

0.00%

0.00%

o.00vo

0.00%

o.00%

0.00%

0.00%

1 00.00%

0.007o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

o.o0%

0.00%

0.00%

O.OOo/o

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.o0%

0.00%

4.15%

0.00% 100.00%

Note: Data cover rcpurchase demands on moftgages secuitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac frcm 2006 through 2008. Sellerhiginator data are for sellers of

Source: /nside Moftgage Finance analysis of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac SEC dlsclosures

Copyright @ lnside Mortgage Finance Publications (301) 951-1240 Page22

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ANNEX I

Page 130: EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN€¦ · 18/10/2013  · EXPERT REPORT OF FRANK SILLMAN -2- ... amounts for interest, fees, and claims regarding the servicing of trusts not sponsored

Mortgage Finance Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim - Quantifying the Risks

See Important Disclosures on the Last Page of this Report

Summary During the course of mortgage loan sales, selling lenders make certain representations and warranties to buyers such as the GSEs and bond investors that hold the securitized loans. Breaches of these representations and warranties cause the selling lender to have to repurchase the loan or indemnify the buyer against future losses. As analyzed in our March 15, 2010 report “GSE Mortgage Repurchase Risk Poses Future Headwinds: Quantifying the Losses”, we estimated the potential unrecognized liability related to GSE repurchase requests. Due to increasing litigation activity by private label RMBS investors, we believe that liability may also lurk for originators/underwriters of the initial securitizations and could approach 5% to 15% of tangible book value. As such, based upon information contained in pending lawsuits, we have analyzed securitization data in an attempt to frame the potential liability that could exist. See the table below for a summary of estimated losses.

Key Points

FHLB lawsuits. Since late 2009, several FHLBs have filed suit against multiple underwriters of Alt-A and subprime MBS deals citing inaccurate claims in the initial prospectus such as the percentage of high LTV loans, amount of investor properties, or number of underwriting exceptions. Utilizing sales information from foreclosed properties within the deal, the suits have compiled convincing data to show that the loan underwriting was materially worse than stated in the initial prospectus. Combined, the lawsuits (FHLBs of Pittsburgh, Seattle, San Francisco) are requesting rescission on about $25.6B in MBS purchases.

Investor syndicate with substantial clout gearing to pursue loan buybacks. An investor group representing $500B in MBS securities has sent letters to Trustees of mortgage backed securitizations requesting that they enforce servicing breaches related to improperly originated loans. According to a July 21 Reuters article, the group has topped the required 25% ownership threshold needed to enforce Trustees to compel the servicers to hand over documentation (i.e. loan files), or be removed from the deal.

FHFA subpoenas. On July 12, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), issued 64 subpoenas seeking documents for MBS securities that Freddie and Fannie had invested in. Previously, the GSE’s had been requesting documentation (i.e. loan files) to determine potential reps and warranty breaches; however, due to a lack of success, the FHFA was forced to use their subpoena power to compel the documentation.

Potential liability. With the majority of the subprime/Alt-A originators out of business, most of the litigation is targeted at the underwriters of the initial securitizations. The suits generally claim, among other items, that the underwriters of the securitizations misrepresented the profile of loan standards within the initial prospectus.

Chris Gamaitoni 202-534-1387 [email protected]

Jason Stewart 202-540-7306 [email protected]

Mike Turner 202-534-1380 [email protected]

August 17, 2010

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS, Asset Backed Alert

Total Alt‐A & Subprime RMBS Repurchase Request Loss Estimates

Company Ticker Rating Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV

Bank of America BAC NR 44,977 $2.69 22% 35,204 $2.11 17% 16,728 $1.00 8%

JP Morgan JPM NR 32,922 $4.93 19% 23,941 $3.59 13% 9,006 $1.35 5%

Deutsche Bank DB NR 20,892 $18.65 31% 14,070 $12.56 21% 4,463 $3.98 7%

Goldman Sachs GS NR 15,103 $16.77 15% 11,194 $12.43 11% 4,197 $4.66 4%

RBS Greenwich RBS NR 15,282 $0.16 19% 9,417 $0.10 12% 1,919 $0.02 2%

Credit Suisse CS NR 12,151 $6.15 30% 8,898 $4.50 22% 3,743 $1.89 9%

UBS UBS.N NR 12,262 $1.94 22% 8,350 $1.32 15% 2,830 $0.45 5%

Morgan Stanley MS NR 8,312 $3.56 15% 7,855 $3.37 14% 4,498 $1.93 8%

Citigroup CS NR 9,964 $0.21 5% 7,819 $0.16 4% 3,729 $0.08 2%

Barclays BCS NR 3,789 $0.19 4% 3,583 $0.18 3% 2,068 $0.10 2%

HSBC HBC NR 3,555 $0.12 2% 3,515 $0.12 2% 2,071 $0.07 1%

Total 179,210 133,846 55,253

* after‐tax (assume 40%)  

Worst Case Base Case Best Case

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Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 2

Chris Gamaitoni | 202-540-7387 | [email protected] Jason Stewart | 202-540-7306 | [email protected] Mike Turner | 202-534-1380 | [email protected]

Litigation Background: a Brief History

Since September 2008, there have been a number of lawsuits aimed at originators of subprime and Alt-A mortgages by either investors in private label (non-government guaranteed) RMBS securities, or the companies that insured them. In 2008 and 2009, bond insurers MBIA, Syncora, and FGIC all filed separate lawsuits against Countrywide (later amended to include Bank of America). Generally, these lawsuits claim that a significant portion of the loans underlying the securitizations that they guaranteed failed to comply with the underwriting guidelines or other reps and warranties. In December 2008, Greenwich Financial, on behalf of a bondholder group, filed suit against Countrywide charging that they violated securitization agreements in modifying loans as part of their $8B settlement with Attorney Generals from multiple states. Since late 2009/early 2010, lawsuits have been filed on the behalf of the Federal Home Loan Banks of Pittsburgh, Seattle and San Francisco. Similar to some of the mortgage insurer lawsuits, the lawsuits all claim that, among other things, a significant portion of the loans underlying the securitizations did not comply with the standards that were cited within the securitization prospectus. However, unlike the lawsuits by the mortgage insurers which are directed at the originator, the FHLB suits are against the underwriters of the securitizations. Accordingly, the suits believe the underwriters should be held liable since they misrepresented the information contained in the prospectus. They are seeking rescission on approximately $25.6 billion in RMBS purchases. In July 2010, an investor syndicate purportedly representing $500B in MBS sent letters to numerous trustees of mortgage backed securitizations requesting that they enforce servicing breaches related to improperly originated loans. The group was formed in order to assemble enough representation to exceed the required 25% or 50% thresholds needed to compel the trustee to take action against the servicer. For reference, the trustee technically manages the securitization trust, and has the duty to ensure the servicer complies with all requirements in the securitization documents. Statements from the syndicate’s attorneys have stated that they have 25% voting rights for over 2,300 deals, 50% in over 900 deals, and 66% in more than 450 deals. The group is represented by Talcott Franklin, a Dallas-based firm that was founded by an attorney who previously worked on a bondholder lobbying effort that was related to the Greenwich Financial litigation. The firm appears to have been established specifically for taking on this effort.

Date Action Amount

Sep‐08 a MBIA sues Countrywide and BAC $1.4B

Status: In April 2010, the Judge denied motion to dismiss (some 

counts).  All parties have appealed the Judge's ruling, and such 

appeals are pending.  Discovery has commenced.

Dec‐08 b Greenwich Financial sues Countrywide Decl. Jdg.

Status: Awaiting ruling from NY State Supreme regarding 

Countrywide's motion to dismiss

Jan‐09 c Syncora sues Countrywide and BAC $0.4B

Status: In April 2010, the Judge granted Defendant's motion to 

dismiss (some counts).  Appeals are pending.  Judge has ordered 

Countrywide to produce all loan files regarding 3 securitizations.  

Defendants' have filed counterclaims against Syncora for breach 

of contract.  Syncora has agreed to stay proceedings against BAC.  

Claims against Countrywide continue.  

Sep‐09 d FHLB Pittsburgh lawsuits ‐ multiple defendants $2.6B

Status: After being removed from state court to federal court, 

the cases were remanded back to Court of Common Pleas in Dec. 

2009.  Defendants in each lawsuit have filed motions to dismiss 

with the Court, and a hearing on the motions is scheduled for 

August 25, 2010.

Dec‐09 e FGIC sues Countrywide (now BAC) $1B

Status: Judge granted Countrywide's motion to dismiss only as to 

the claims of negligent misrepresentation and breach of implied 

covenant of good faith and fair dealing.  The Judge denied the 

motion to dismiss as to the claims of fraud.  Both parties have 

filed appeals, which are pending.

Dec‐09 f FHLB Seattle lawsuits ‐  multiple defendants $4B

Status: Cases moved to Federal court.  On July 29, 2010, Plantiffs 

argued motion to remand all cases to State court. Awaiting 

decision.

Mar‐10 g FHLB San Francisco lawsuits ‐ mutiple defendants $19B

Status: Cases filed in state court and removed to federal court by 

defendants.  FHLB has filed motion to remand to state court.  

Motion hearing set for 9/17/10.

Jul‐10 h FHFA issues 64 subpoenas for loan files N/A

Status: unknown, private

Jul‐10 i Investor group announces intentions to file suit $500B

Status: nothing publicly filed yet

Aug‐10 j NY Federal Reserve engages in actions to enforce $70B

repurchases on faulty mortgages acquired through Bear

Stearns and AIG

Status: unknown, private

Sources

a. http://www.mbia .com/investor/lega l_proceedings .html

b. Greenwich Financia l  Services , et a l . v. Countrywide  Finacnia l  Corp., et al .; SCROLL

c. Syncora  Guarantee  Inc. v. Countrywide  Home  Loans , Inc., et a l .; SCROLL

d. FHLB of Pittsburgh's  Form 10‐Q for the  Quarter Ended June  30, 2010; PACER

e. Financia l  Guaranty Insurance  Company v. Countrywide  Home  Loans , Inc.; SCROLL

f. FHLB of Seattle  's  Form 10‐Q for the  Quarter Ended June  30, 2010; PACER

g. FHLB of San Francisco 's  Form 10‐Q for the  Quarter Ended June  30, 2010; PACER

h. July 12, 2010 Federal  Hous ing Finance  Agency news  release

i . July 21, 2010 Reuters  article  "Mortgage  bond holders  get lega l  esge: buybacks  seen"

j. Aug 4, 2010 Bloomerg article  "N.Y. Fed May Require  Banks  to Buy Back faul ty Mortgages , Assets"

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All the lawsuits generally make similar claims—that a significant portion of the underlying loans failed to comply with the underwriting guidelines or other reps and warranties and thus misrepresentations and material omissions were made in connection with the sale of private label RMBS. As background, during the securitization of loans, the underwriter (or originator, in the case of the mortgage insurer) makes certain representations and warranties that the underlying loans conform with the standards set forth in the securitization prospectus. Some of the most common misrepresentations cited in the lawsuits that have been filed are:

Stated loan-to-value ratios were lower than actual LTVs Failure to disclose additional liens on properties Property values were based on overstated valuations Overstating the number of mortgages on primary residences Originators of mortgage loans securing collateral pools departed from underwriting standards

In order to have conclusive proof that a significant portion of the underlying loans did not conform to the initial underwriting guidelines, the best source of information is loan file documentation. This point is made clear via statements in the FHFA subpoenas; “… the Conservator is seeking the contents of loan files, which include documents used in the underwriting process, such as loan applications and property appraisals.” (July 12, 2010 FHFS news release) While the GSEs, via the FHFA, have the power to subpoena the servicers of the securitization to turn over the documentation, other RMBS investors, such as the FHLB, do not have direct access to the files and must litigate in an attempt to gain access to the loan files. Based on the information provided, there appear to be two routes currently implemented by investors: File suit against the securitization underwriter. Utilizing statistical analyses of trust performance, the FHLB suits have

attempted to prove that the only way for the underlying loan performance to have performed as poorly as they did was if the underwriting was materially different than stated. If a judge does not dismiss the case, the plaintiffs are likely to gain access to the loan files via the discovery phase of the litigation (there has been no decision in the FHLB cases yet). To date, among the various lawsuits listed above, only in Syncora v. Countrywide/BAC have the defendants been ordered to produce loan files.

or Garner the required 25% or 50% voting rights from securitization investors in order to compel the trustee to force the servicer

to provide the required documentation (or be removed as acting trustee). This is the route the $500B investor group is initially taking. Thus, the group conceivably should have a greater chance of accessing loan files as the deciding factor may not hinge on a judge’s decision.

As previously noted, the FHLB suits are requesting rescission of about $25.6B in RMBS purchases. However, we believe these suits, the investor syndicate, the GSE’s and the Fed, ultimately are looking to have the underwriter, or the originator (if they are not bankrupt), repurchase only the underlying loans that did not abide by the underwriting standards stated in the prospectus.

Also in July 2010, the FHFA, acting on behalf of Fannie and Freddie, issued 64 subpoenas seeking documents related to private-label mortgage backed securities in which they invested. The FHFA intends to utilize the information to determine whether the issuers (underwriters) and others may be liable for certain losses suffered. The ultimate goal is “to determine whether misrepresentations, breaches of warranties, or other acts of omissions occurred that would require them to repurchase loans underlying the securitizations.” (July 12, 2010 Federal Housing Finance Agency news release) Most recently, the New York Federal Reserve stated in August that they are engaged in actions to enforce repurchases on faulty mortgages acquired through Bear Stearns and AIG. (August 4, 2010 Bloomberg article)

Litigation Background: The Real Issue—Access to the Loan Files

At first glance, many of the lawsuits sound like a Hail Mary by investors that have lost money on soured RMBS purchases. Our skepticism increases substantially when you consider that the claims of “faulty” mortgages are being made by entities such as the GSEs, FHLBs or mortgage insurers that have deep access to mortgage data and are deemed experts. However, a closer look at the FHLB lawsuits provide fairly convincing evidence that the loans were significantly worse than stated and the cases could have merit. Recall, as stated above, one of the primary goals of the lawsuit is to gain access to the loan files, as they will likely provide more convincing proof of their claims. Thus, the initial lawsuit only needs to provide enough evidence to convince the judge to deny motions to dismiss and enter the discovery phase which will potentially provide the plaintiffs access to the loan files.

Litigation Background: Do the Lawsuits Stand a Chance?

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Accordingly, below are two examples that were cited in the San Francisco FHLB’s lawsuit of underwriting misrepresentations allegedly made in connection with the sale of Adjustable Rate Mortgage-Backed Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-1. “Untrue or misleading statements about the LTVs of the mortgage loans.” Utilizing an Automated Valuation Model (AVM), the FHLB estimated the actual average loan-to-values for underlying mortgages and compared them to statements made in the prospectus. Their analysis of 2,578 loans (58% of the entire pool), found that 414 loans, or 16%, had LTVs in excess of 100%, versus the statement in the prospectus that zero loans had LTVs in excess of 100%. Below is the results of their analysis taken from the lawsuit:

Source: Schedule 1 to First Amended Complaint, FHLB San Francisco v. Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, et al. (emphasis added)

“Untrue or misleading statements about owner-occupancy of the properties that secured the mortgage loans” Based on their analysis, the FHLB estimated that among the 4,345 loans in this securitization, misstatements were made regarding 521 loans. Below is the info included in the lawsuit:

Source: Schedule 1 to First Amended Complaint, FHLB San Francisco v. Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, et al.

In summary, the lawsuit claims that the defendants made untrue or misleading statements on 50.6% of the loans securitized in Adjustable Rate Mortgage-Backed Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-1 (p. 3, First Amended Complaint, FHLB San Francisco v. Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, et al.) And, that is just one of the 116 securitizations that the San Francisco FHLB alleges were misrepresented. Where do the FHLB lawsuits stand? None of them have entered discovery. The Pittsburgh cases were moved from state court to federal court, then back to state court and are awaiting a ruling regarding the defendants’ motions to dismiss. The Seattle and San Francisco suits have been moved to federal court, but the FHLB has pending motions to remand those proceedings to state court. While the FHLB lawsuits are in limbo, the lawsuit filed by MBIA has had more progress that could have negative implications for the defendants of the other suits. In April 2010, Judge Bransten partially denied Bank of America’s motion to dismiss, and held that BAC is the successor-in-interest to Countrywide and thus vicariously liable for the conduct of

Item 62.  Details of the results of the AVM analysis:

Number of loans 4,345                    

Number of properties on which there was enough information for the 

model to determine a true market value 2,578                      

Number of loans on which the stated value was 105% or more of the 

true market value as reported by the model 1,741                      

Aggregate amount by which the stated value of those properties 

exceeded their true market values as reported by the model $159,299,961

Number of loans on which the stated value was 95% or less of the 

trust market value as reported by the model 289                         

Aggregate amount by which the true market values of those 

properties exceed their stated values $18,366,289

Number of loans with LTVs over 100% as stated by Defendants ‐                        

Number of loans with LTVs over 100% , as determined by the model 414                       

Weighted‐average LTV, as staed by Defendants (group 3) 72.2%

Weighted‐average LTV, as determined by the model (group 3) 86.6%

Items 96. Details of properties that were stated to be owner‐occupied, but were not:

(a) Number of loans on which the owner of the property instructed tax authorities to 

send the property tax billed to him or her at a different address: 243

(b) Number of loans on which the owner of the property could have, but did not, 

designate the property as his or her homestead: 325

(c) Number of loans on which the owner of the property owned three or more 

properties: 30

(d) Eliminating duplicates, number of loans about which one or more of statements (a) 

through (c) is true: 521

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Countrywide if Countrywide is ultimately found liable (p. 15, April 29, 2010 Order of Judge Bransten, MBIA Insurance Corp. v. Coutnrywide Home Loans, Inc., et al.). The case was ordered to move forward on the fraud and breach of implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing causes of action. Since the Judge’s decision in April, both Bank of America and the FHLB have appealed the ruling. The same Judge is also sitting for the Syncora and FGIC lawsuits which are similar to the MBIA case. Importantly, in Syncora’s case against Countrywide, in May of this year Judge Bransten ordered Countrywide to produce to Syncora the loan origination files for all of the loans in three separate securitizations originated by Countrywide and insured by Syncora (May 7, 2010 Order of Judge Bransten, Syncora Guarantee Inc. v. Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., et al.). This ruling may set a precedent for the MBIA and FGIC lawsuits should Countrywide and BAC resist producing the loan origination files in those cases. While these lawsuits could be extremely slow to progress, we believe the FHFA subpoenas, Fed requests, and the actions being taken on behalf of the investor syndicate may proceed at a faster pace, given they are likely to gain access to the coveted loan files much sooner. With access to loan files potentially a matter of when, not if, the next question we consider is whether access to loan files will really be the smoking gun many expect. To gain some perspective on how pervasive the problem of defective mortgages was, we refer investors to the April 7, 2010 testimony of Richard Bowen, III, before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Mr. Bowen was the Business Chief Underwriter for Correspondent Lending in the Consumer Lending Group at Citigroup in charge of over $90B in residential mortgage production. Below are excerpts of his testimony: “In mid-2006, I discovered that over 60% of these mortgages purchased and sold were defective. Because Citi had given reps and warrants to the investors that the mortgages were not defective, the investors could force Citi to repurchase many billions of dollars of these defective assets. This situation represented a large potential risk to the shareholders of Citigroup. I started issuing warnings in June of 2006 and attempted to get management to address these critical risk issues. These warnings continued through 2007 and went to all levels of the Consumer Lending Group. We continued to purchase and sell to investors even larger volumes of mortgages through 2007. And defective mortgages increased during 2007 to over 80% of production.” Source: http://subprimeshakeout.blogspot.com/2010/06/sec-demands-more-disclosure-from-jp.html We defer investors to legal experts to opine on the potential outcomes of the outstanding lawsuits; however, given the potential evidence that the loan files could uncover, it would not be surprising to us to see settlements develop once data from the loan files access has been attained.

Who is Exposed to Alt-A Underwriting Risk?

With the majority of the top Alt-A and subprime mortgage originators out of business, the litigation has largely been centered on the underwriters of the securitizations. Should investor suits ultimately be successful in recovering damages from the underwriters, we would expect the underwriters to turn to the originators of the loans (so long as they are not affiliated with the underwriter or bankrupt) and attempt to recover those damages. Since this process is likely to take some time and we have quantifiable data points with regard to underwriter exposure, we have focused this report only on framing the potential liability of Alt-A and subprime RMBS underwriters. We believe that there is a material risk related to the past underwriting of Alt-A loans in the banking sector due to representation and warranties underwriters made to the buyers of Alt-A RMBS. Based on data compiled from Inside MBS & ABS, our analysis of the FHLBs suits, and actual performance data of the ‘05 to ‘07 Alt-A RMBS vintages, we estimate that the total liability for rescission requests on Alt-A RMBS to be $67.9 billion. Our worst and best case estimates for industry wide losses is $99.1 billion and $13.4 billion, respectively. JP Morgan (JPM—NR) tops the list with $13.1 billion of estimated losses largely due to the company’s acquisition of Bear Stearns, who topped the underwriting league tables with $132.9 billion of Alt-A RMBS underwritten during that time (according to Inside MBS & ABS). Deutsche Bank sits at the number two spot with $10.3 billion of estimated losses and Bank of America comes in third with $10.2 billion of estimated losses largely due to their acquisition of Countrywide, which underwrote $85.4 billion of Alt-A RMBS, or 86% of Bank of America’s total exposure, during the time period (according to Inside MBS & ABS). See the following table for complete details on company specific exposure.

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Using data from Inside Mortgage Finance, we start with the league tables recording the top lead underwriters of Alt-A RMBS from 2005 through 2007. Since the majority of the rescission requests in the FHLBs suits were focused on loans underwritten in the years 2005 through 2007, we confined our initial data set to Alt-A RMBS underwritten and issued during those years. Ultimate losses will be dependent on three main factors; rescission percentage, default rate, and severity of loss on repurchased loans. Since these factors will vary based on vintage (or year underwritten), we use average statistics by vintage to estimate the liability. While these factors may also vary by issuer, we have not been able to identify any meaningful public statistic that correlates to the FHLBs suits rescission request percentage. Therefore, while we acknowledge there may be slight rescission rate differences between issuers, we believe using a vintage average is a suitable data point for framing the analysis. Worst Case Alt-A Loss Estimate In the worst case scenario, we assume that the rescission requests identified in the FHLB suits are indicative of the total potential pool of loans that could be rescinded industry-wide. While we cannot opine on whether or not the suit’s rescission percentage will ultimately be proven accurate, we believe that the data set forth in each particular suit is substantial enough to establish a worst case scenario. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below:

(weighted average rescission request by year) x (success ratio) x (severity of loss) = loss estimate

Methodology for Quantifying Risk

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Worst Case Alt‐A Net Repurchase Loss Estimates'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

Bear Stearns 21,080 15.9% 6,686 8,965 5,429

Lehman Brothers 20,264 16.6% 8,143 7,545 4,576

Deutsche Bank 16,763 16.9% 7,268 5,941 3,553

  Countrywide Securities 13,300 15.6% 3,798 5,852 3,650

  Bank of America 3,085 22.1% 2,407 678 0

Total  Bank of America 16,386 16.5% 6,205 6,530 3,650

RBS Greenwich Capital 15,282 15.5% 4,415 6,485 4,382

Goldman Sachs 9,625 16.9% 3,361 4,821 1,444

UBS 8,989 15.8% 3,052 3,467 2,469

Credit Suisse 6,801 21.1% 4,629 2,172 0

Citigroup 4,164 22.5% 3,442 722 0

Total 119,354 47,202 46,648 25,504

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Alt‐A Worst Case Scenario Assumptions2007 2006 2005

FHLB Rescission Rate 54.5% 49.1% 43.2%

Success  Ratio 75.0% 60.0% 50.0%

Severity of Loss 60.0% 55.0% 50.0%

Alt‐A RMBS Repurchase Request Loss Estimates

Company Ticker Rating Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV

JP Morgan JPM NR 21,080 $3.16 12% 13,110 $1.96 7% 2,718 $0.41 2%

Deutsche Bank DB NR 16,763 $14.97 25% 10,269 $9.17 15% 2,274 $2.03 3%

Bank of America BAC NR 16,386 $0.98 8% 10,187 $0.61 5% 2,188 $0.13 1%

RBS Greenwich RBS NR 15,282 $0.16 19% 9,417 $0.10 12% 1,919 $0.02 2%

Goldman Sachs GS NR 9,625 $10.69 9% 6,363 $7.06 6% 1,346 $1.49 1%

UBS UBS.N NR 8,989 $1.42 16% 5,472 $0.87 10% 1,148 $0.18 2%

Credit Suisse CS NR 6,801 $3.44 17% 4,376 $2.21 11% 1,095 $0.55 3%

Citigroup C NR 4,164 $0.09 2% 2,527 $0.05 1% 683 $0.01 0%

Total 99,090 67,920 13,371

* after‐tax (assume 40%)

Worst Case Base Case Best Case

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Base Case Alt-A Loss Estimate In the base case scenario, we assume that rescission requests are limited to all seriously delinquent and defaulted loans that have occurred up to and including July 2010. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below: (total 60+ day delinquent loan balance & cumulative gross defaults through July 2010) x (success ratio) x (severity) = loss estimate

As a point of reference, First Horizon (FHN—NR) noted in the company’s latest 10-Q filing that they have witnessed average rescission rates of between 40% and 50% of the repurchase and make-whole requests (similar to our “success ratio”) and observed loss severities (measured as a percentage of the unpaid principal balance) ranging between 50% and 55% of the repurchased loans. This would result in an approximate loss severity of between 20% and 28%. The majority of FHN’s loan repurchase requests made to date have occurred on prime loans, which should bear a lower ultimate severity than Alt-A loans. We believe this benchmark compares favorably to our base case scenario for Alt-A loan repurchase risk. Best Case Alt-A Loss Estimate In the best case scenario, we assume that rescission requests are limited to all seriously delinquent and defaulted loans that occurred up to eighteen months after issuance. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below:

(total 60+ day delinquent loan balance & cumulative gross defaults @ 18 months after issuance) x (success ratio) x (severity) = loss estimate

Base Case Alt‐A Net Repurchase Loss Estimates'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

Bear Stearns 13,110 9.9% 3,765 7,303 2,042

Lehman Brothers 12,453 10.2% 4,586 6,146 1,721

Deutsche Bank 10,269 10.4% 4,093 4,840 1,336

  Countrywide Securities 8,279 9.7% 2,139 4,767 1,373

  Bank of America 1,908 13.6% 1,356 552 0

Total  Bank of America 10,187 10.2% 3,495 5,320 1,373

RBS Greenwich Capital 9,417 9.5% 2,486 5,283 1,648

Goldman Sachs 6,363 11.2% 1,893 3,927 543

UBS 5,472 9.6% 1,719 2,825 928

Credit Suisse 4,376 13.6% 2,607 1,769 0

Citigroup 2,527 13.7% 1,938 588 0

Total 74,174 26,583 38,001 9,590

Best Case Alt‐A Net Repurchase Loss Estimates'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

Bear Stearns 2,718 2.0% 1,120 1,319 279

Lehman Brothers 2,709 2.2% 1,364 1,110 235

Deutsche Bank 2,274 2.3% 1,217 874 183

  Countrywide Securities 1,685 2.0% 636 861 188

  Bank of America 503 3.6% 403 100 0

Total  Bank of America 2,188 2.2% 1,039 961 188

RBS Greenwich Capital 1,919 1.9% 739 954 225

Goldman Sachs 1,346 2.4% 563 709 74

UBS 1,148 2.0% 511 510 127

Credit Suisse 1,095 3.4% 775 319 0

Citigroup 683 3.7% 576 106 0

Total 16,080 7,905 6,863 1,312

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Inside MBS & ABS

Alt‐A Base Case Estimate Assumptions2007 2006 2005

Balance 71.6% 52.1% 38.0%

Net Losses 3.8% 5.2% 1.0%

Severity 60.0% 55.0% 45.0%

Gross  Losses 6.3% 9.4% 2.2%

REO 2.0% 2.4% 1.2%

Foreclosure 9.8% 13.6% 6.7%

Bankrupt 2.2% 3.0% 1.8%

Delinquent Loans 17.3% 20.6% 11.2%

Gross  SDQ 37.7% 48.9% 23.1%

Success  Ratio 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

Alt‐A Best Case Estimate Assumptions2007 2006 2005

Balance 88.1% 79.4% 71.6%

Net Losses 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Severity 60.0% 55.0% 50.0%

Gross  Losses 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

REO 1.5% 1.4% 0.3%

Foreclosure 3.5% 2.7% 0.7%

Bankrupt 0.6% 0.5% 0.2%

Delinquent Loans 6.8% 4.3% 1.4%

Gross  SDQ 6.9% 4.0% 0.9%

Success  Ratio 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%

Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 7

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Chris Gamaitoni | 202-540-7387 | [email protected] Jason Stewart | 202-540-7306 | [email protected] Mike Turner | 202-534-1380 | [email protected]

We believe that there is material risk related to the past underwriting of subprime loans in the banking sector due to the representation and warranties underwriters made to the buyers of subprime RMBS. While we have yet to see a lawsuit, we believe the consortium of investors represented by the law firm Talcott Franklin P.C. intends to pursue a strategy that ultimately results in the rescission of loans that they believe breach the underwriters representation and warranties. Should investors be successful in recovering damages from the underwriters, we would expect the underwriters to turn to the originators of the loans (so long as they are not affiliated with the underwriter or bankrupt) and attempt to recover those damages. Since this process is likely to take some time and we now have quantifiable data points with regard to underwriter exposure, we have focused this report only on framing the potential liability for underwriters and not originators.

Based on data compiled from Asset Backed Alert, our analysis of the FHLBs suits, and actual performance data of the ‘05 to ‘07 subprime RMBS vintages, we estimate that the total liability for rescission requests on subprime RMBS to be $80.3 billion. Our worst and best case estimates for industry wide losses is $89.3 billion and $46.6 billion, respectively. Bank of America (BAC—NR) tops the list with $25.0 billion of estimated losses largely due to their acquisition of Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, who underwrote $86.0 billion and $45.7 billion of subprime RMBS, respectively, during the time period. JP Morgan (JPM—NR) sits at the number two spot with estimated losses of $10.8 billion based on subprime underwriting exposure of $60.2 billion based in part on the company’s acquisition of Bear Stearns, who underwrote $37.4 billion of subprime RMBS during that time. See the at the top of the following page for complete details on company specific loss exposure.

Who is Exposed to Subprime Underwriting Risk?

Subprime Issuance by Year ($Mil.)Rank* Issuer Total '05‐'07 Mkt Share 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

1 Countrywide 85,993 15.8% 19,509 26,345 40,140 42,650 9,671 4,591 3,381 1,631

2 Lehman Brothers 49,597 9.1% 18,652 17,635 13,310 13,773 8,774 10,213 10,702 8,942

3 RBS Greenwich 47,721 8.8% 19,520 11,207 16,993 21,461 10,634 8,211 8,408 4,361

4 Merri l l  Lynch 45,667 8.4% 21,936 12,019 11,712 7,318 2,899 200 649 176

5 Morgan Stanley 37,572 6.9% 23,656 6,373 7,543 8,523 6,433 6,393 1,634 1,343

6 Bear Stearns 37,382 6.9% 13,360 11,169 12,854 13,095 10,783 9,336 6,748 10,097

7 Credit Suisse 31,436 5.8% 7,161 9,732 14,543 11,930 3,727 7,121 9,573 2,122

8 Goldman Sachs 31,274 5.8% 6,802 13,166 11,307 9,506 2,538 4,314 0 346

9 Citigroup 28,588 5.3% 14,026 5,888 8,674 4,368 12,077 0 0 0

10 Bank of America 24,487 4.5% 10,179 3,956 10,352 14,128 6,368 4,508 4,792 2,417

11 J.P. Morgan 22,833 4.2% 11,360 7,001 4,472 8,453 13,690 3,717 5,773 0

12 Deutsche Bank 20,066 3.7% 10,169 4,313 5,584 9,681 7,785 5,567 3,120 0

13 UBS 18,068 3.3% 5,366 5,830 6,873 5,050 3,580 3,038 0 237

14 Barclays 17,723 3.3% 9,578 4,738 3,406 1,717 0 0 0 0

15 HSBC 16,890 3.1% 6,708 9,678 504 0 0 0 0 0

16 WaMu Capital 11,284 2.1% 3,488 2,142 5,655 3,903 0 0 0 0

17 GMAC RFC 5,402 1.0% 987 2,335 2,080 497 242 0 0 0

18 Friedman Bill ings  Ramsey 4,002 0.7% 0 324 3,678 660 0 0 0 0

19 Terwin Capital 3,375 0.6% 166 2,307 902 1,082 96 0 0 0

20 Wachovia 2,225 0.4% 1,062 648 515 0 0 1,651 451 0

21 Societe Generale 991 0.2% 177 814 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 RBC Capital 899 0.2% 386 513 0 0 0 246 0 0

23 BMO Capital 196 0.0% 106 90 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 SunTrust 185 0.0% 185 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 Banc One Capital 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 892 100 0 0

Total 543,855 204,540 158,222 181,093 177,795 100,190 69,205 55,229 31,673

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 8

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Chris Gamaitoni | 202-540-7387 | [email protected] Jason Stewart | 202-540-7306 | [email protected] Mike Turner | 202-534-1380 | [email protected]

Using data from Asset Backed Alert, we start with the league tables recording the top lead underwriters of subprime RMBS from 2005 through 2007. Since the majority of the rescission requests in the FHLB suits were focused on loans underwritten in the years 2005 through 2007, we confined our initial data set to subprime RMBS underwritten and issued during those years. Ultimate losses will be dependent on three main factors; rescission percentage, default rate, and severity of loss on repurchased loans. Since these factors will vary based on vintage (or year underwritten), we use average statistics by vintage to estimate the liability. While these factors may also vary by issuer, we have not been able to identify any meaningful public statistic that correlates to the FHLB suits rescission request percentage. Therefore, while we acknowledge there may be slight rescission rate differences between issuers, we believe using a vintage average is a suitable data point for framing the analysis. Worst Case Subprime Loss Estimate In the worst case scenario, we assume that the rescission requests identified in the FHLB suits are a good proxy for the total potential pool of loans that could be rescinded industry-wide. While we cannot opine on whether or not the suit’s rescission percentage will ultimately be proven accurate, we believe that the data set forth in each particular suit is substantial enough to establish a worst case scenario. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below:

(weighted average rescission request by year) x (success ratio) x (severity of loss) = loss estimate

Methodology for Quantifying Risk

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Subprime Worst Case Scenario Assumptions

2007 2006 2005

FHLB Rescission Rate 54.5% 49.1% 43.2%

Success  Ratio 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

Severity of Loss 65.0% 55.0% 50.0%

Worst Case Subprime Net Repurchase Loss Estimates'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

  Countrywide 14,609 17.0% 5,188 4,657 4,763

  Merrill Lynch 9,348 20.5% 5,834 2,125 1,390

  Bank of America 4,635 18.9% 2,707 699 1,228

Total  Bank of America 28,591 18.3% 13,728 7,481 7,382

  Bear Stearns 7,052 18.9% 3,553 1,974 1,525

  J.P. Morgan 4,789 21.0% 3,021 1,238 531

Total  J.P. Morgan 11,842 19.7% 6,574 3,212 2,056

RBS Greenwich 9,189 19.3% 5,191 1,981 2,017

Morgan Stanley 8,312 22.1% 6,291 1,127 895

Credit Suisse 5,350 17.0% 1,904 1,721 1,726

Goldman Sachs 5,478 17.5% 1,809 2,327 1,342

Citigroup 5,800 20.3% 3,730 1,041 1,029

Deutsche Bank 4,129 20.6% 2,704 763 663

UBS 3,273 18.1% 1,427 1,031 816

Barclays 3,789 21.4% 2,547 838 404

HSBC 3,555 21.0% 1,784 1,711 60

Total 89,309 47,689 23,232 18,388

Subprime RMBS Repurchase Request Loss Estimates

Company Ticker Rating Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV Loss ($M) Per Share* % of TBV

Bank of America BAC NR 28,591 $1.71 14% 25,017 $1.50 12% 14,541 $0.87 7%

JP Morgan JPM NR 11,842 $1.77 7% 10,831 $1.62 6% 6,288 $0.94 4%

RBS Greenwich RBS NR 9,189 $0.10 12% 8,205 $0.09 10% 4,744 $0.05 6%

Morgan Stanley MS NR 8,312 $3.56 15% 7,855 $3.37 14% 4,498 $1.93 8%

Citigroup CS NR 5,800 $0.12 3% 5,292 $0.11 3% 3,047 $0.06 2%

Goldman Sachs GS NR 5,478 $6.08 5% 4,831 $5.36 5% 2,851 $3.17 3%

Credit Suisse CS NR 5,350 $2.71 13% 4,522 $2.29 11% 2,648 $1.34 6%

Deutsche Bank DB NR 4,129 $3.69 6% 3,801 $3.39 6% 2,188 $1.95 3%

Barclays BCS NR 3,789 $0.19 4% 3,583 $0.18 3% 2,068 $0.10 2%

HSBC HBC NR 3,555 $0.12 2% 3,515 $0.12 2% 2,071 $0.07 1%

UBS UBS.N NR 3,273 $0.52 6% 2,878 $0.46 5% 1,681 $0.27 3%

Total 89,309 80,329 46,626

* after‐tax (assume 40%)

Worst Case Base Case Best Case

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 9

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Chris Gamaitoni | 202-540-7387 | [email protected] Jason Stewart | 202-540-7306 | [email protected] Mike Turner | 202-534-1380 | [email protected]

Base Case Subprime Loss Estimate In the base case scenario, we assume that rescission requests are limited to all seriously delinquent and defaulted loans that have occurred up to and including July 2010. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below: (total 60+ day delinquent loan balance & cumulative gross defaults through July 2010) x (success ratio) x (severity) = loss estimate

Best Case Subprime Loss Estimate In the best case scenario, we assume that rescission requests are limited to all seriously delinquent and defaulted loans that occurred up to eighteen months after issuance. We then apply a success ratio, assuming that not all rescission requests will be honored or result in a loss. Finally, we apply a loss severity estimate to produce a net loss for loans repurchased. The mathematical equation used to estimate worst case losses is set forth below:

(total 60+ day delinquent loan balance & cumulative gross defaults @ 18 months after issuance) x (success ratio) x (severity) = loss estimate

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Source: Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, Bloomberg, Asset Backed Alert

Subprime Base Case Estimate Assumptions

2007 2006 2005

Balance 60.2% 29.2% 16.5%

Net Losses 19.0% 16.3% 5.6%

Severity 65.0% 60.0% 55.0%

Gross Losses 29.3% 27.1% 10.1%

REO 4.1% 4.4% 3.3%

Foreclosure 16.4% 15.9% 11.5%

Bankrupt 3.1% 3.6% 4.0%

Delinquent Loans 12.3% 9.3% 6.2%

Gross SDQ 65.2% 60.3% 35.0%

Success Ratio 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

Subprime Best Case Estimate Assumptions2007 2006 2005

Balance 82.1% 78.7% 55.5%

Net Losses 4.3% 2.0% 0.4%

Severity 60.0% 40.0% 40.0%

Gross Losses 7.2% 5.1% 1.1%

REO 6.0% 5.4% 2.1%

Foreclosure 12.4% 9.0% 4.1%

Bankrupt 1.8% 1.7% 1.4%

Delinquent Loans 2.3% 1.9% 0.3%

Gross SDQ 6.9% 4.0% 0.9%

Success Ratio 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%

Base Case Subprime Net Repurchase Loss Estimates'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

  Countrywide 12,321 14.3% 5,161 4,653 2,508

  Merrill Lynch 8,657 19.0% 5,803 2,123 732

  Bank of America 4,038 16.5% 2,693 699 647

Total  Bank of America 25,017 16.0% 13,657 7,474 3,886

  Bear Stearns 6,310 16.9% 3,534 1,973 803

  J.P. Morgan 4,521 19.8% 3,005 1,236 279

Total  J.P. Morgan 10,831 18.0% 6,539 3,209 1,082

RBS Greenwich 8,205 17.2% 5,164 1,979 1,062

Morgan Stanley 7,855 20.9% 6,258 1,126 471

Credit Suisse 4,522 14.4% 1,894 1,719 908

Goldman Sachs 4,831 15.4% 1,799 2,325 706

Citigroup 5,292 18.5% 3,710 1,040 542

Deutsche Bank 3,801 18.9% 2,690 762 349

UBS 2,878 15.9% 1,419 1,030 429

Barclays 3,583 20.2% 2,534 837 213

HSBC 3,515 20.8% 1,775 1,709 31

Total 80,329 47,440 23,210 9,680

Best Case Subprime Net Repurchase Loss Estimates

'05 ‐ '07 % of orig. 2007 2006 2005

  Countrywide 7,215 8.4% 2,916 2,859 1,440

  Merrill Lynch 5,004 11.0% 3,279 1,304 420

  Bank of America 2,322 9.5% 1,522 429 371

Total  Bank of America 14,541 9.3% 7,717 4,592 2,231

  Bear Stearns 3,670 9.8% 1,997 1,212 461

  J.P. Morgan 2,618 11.5% 1,698 760 160

Total  J.P. Morgan 6,288 10.4% 3,695 1,972 621

RBS Greenwich 4,744 9.9% 2,918 1,216 609

Morgan Stanley 4,498 12.0% 3,536 692 271

Credit Suisse 2,648 8.4% 1,070 1,056 522

Goldman Sachs 2,851 9.1% 1,017 1,429 405

Citigroup 3,047 10.7% 2,097 639 311

Deutsche Bank 2,188 10.9% 1,520 468 200

UBS 1,681 9.3% 802 633 246

Barclays 2,068 11.7% 1,432 514 122

HSBC 2,071 12.3% 1,003 1,050 18

Total 46,626 26,808 14,260 5,557

Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 10

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Chris Gamaitoni | 202-540-7387 | [email protected] Jason Stewart | 202-540-7306 | [email protected] Mike Turner | 202-534-1380 | [email protected]

What Reserves have been Recorded?

Based upon our review of quarterly filings, JPM appears to be the only underwriter that has potentially reserved for repurchases as it relates to private label litigation. In 1Q10, JPM recorded a $2.3B charge in litigation reserves for “mortgage-related” matters. When asked a question on their earnings call regarding the charge, management responded “to think about that as we have repurchase reserves that we’ve talked about related to the GSEs as an ongoing expense we’ve been reserving for. This (charge) relates to the broader question of all other ideas for claims against us from private investors”. A review of the litigation section of JPM’s 2009 10-K and their 1Q10 10-Q shows that the only change is the mention of the FHLB San Francisco lawsuit (the Seattle and Pittsburgh lawsuits were mentioned in the 10-K). Interestingly, the charge was also recorded in the quarter immediately following a request from the SEC for more information regarding their repurchase reserves. Two weeks following the release of their 4Q09 earnings, JPM received a letter on January 29, 2010 from the SEC requesting disclosures on how the company establishes repurchase reserves for various reps and warranties, including GSE’s, monoline insurers and any private loan repurchase requests (http://www.sec.gov—JPM March 2, 2010 Correspondence). Our review of quarterly filings found that BAC had a $3.9B reserve for all mortgage repurchase requests (on $11.1B in requests made), JPM had a $2.3B reserve for mortgage repurchases (which is separate from their $2.3B litigation reserve charge in 1Q10), and Citigroup had a $727MM reserve for mortgage repurchases. Importantly, BAC’s 2Q10 quarterly filing noted that they have only received $33MM in private label MBS repurchase requests thus far. Below is a table of the applicable reserves.

Source: Company filings, Compass Point Research

Unpaid principal bal. ‐ in millions BAC JPM C

Unresolved mortgage repurchase requests 11,100        2,880        4,478       

GSEs 5,600             1,400          4,166         

Monolines 4,000             1,700          98              

Other investors 1,400           na 214          

Private label MBS investors 33                  na na

Reserve for repurchases 3,900            2,332          727            

Litigation reserve (estimate) na 2,300        na

Subtotal 3,900            4,632          727            

Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Mortgage Repurchases Part II: Private Label RMBS Investors Take Aim—Quantifying the Risks 11

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Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 12

Important Disclosures Analyst Certification I, Chris Gamaitoni, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities or issues. We further certify that we have not received direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month), neither Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC, nor any of its affiliates own any of the subject company(ies)'s equity securities. The research analyst named in the certification above holds a financial interest in the common stock of Citigroup (NYSE: C), which is the subject of this report. There are no material conflicts of interest of Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC or of the research analyst named in the certification above of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this report. Neither the research analyst named in the certification above, any member of that analysts' household, nor any person that depends upon him for financial support, is an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company(ies) mentioned in the research report. The research analyst named in the certification above does not receive any compensation from Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC that is in any way related to Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC's investment banking revenues. Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC does not compensate its research analysts for investment banking services, but rather provides research analysts with a salary and bonus based upon the research analyst’s individual performance and quality of research, the correlation between the analyst’s recommendations and the stock price performance, and overall ratings received from clients, sales employees, and other employees independent of Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC’s investment banking department. The research analyst named in the certification above has not received any compensation from any company that is the subject of this research report. Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC has never managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for any company that is the subject of this research report and has never had any investment banking relationship with any company that is the subject of this research report, and therefore has not received any compensation for investment banking services from any such companies in the past 12 months of publication of this report and does not expect or intend to receive compensation for investment banking services from the subject companies with the next three months from the publication of this report. Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC has received no compensation from any company that is the subject of this research report for any products or services rendered to such companies, and neither the research analyst named in the certification above nor any Compass Point employee with ability to influence the substance of this research report has any knowledge of such compensation to Compass Point or any affiliate. No (none) of the company(ies) that are the subject of this research report have ever been clients of Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC. Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC has never, and as of the publication of this research report does not, act as a market maker in the securities of any of the companies that are the subject of this report.

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Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 13

Important Disclosures, cont’d Global Disclaimer This report is based upon public information that Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC and the research analyst named in the attestation above assume to be correct. Assumptions, opinions, forecasts, and estimates constitute the research analyst’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. The research analyst’s judgments may be wrong. Neither Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC nor its affiliates, nor the research analyst, are responsible for any errors, omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The securities and/or financial instruments mentioned in this research report, and the trading strategies related thereto, may not be suitable for all investors. You must consider your specific investment goals and objectives prior to transacting in any security or financial instrument. Consult with your financial advisor before making any transactions or investments. This research report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.


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