‘The Role of the Census in Regional Science’46th Regional Science Association International: British and Irish
Section & the UK Data Service-Census Support
Exploiting small area census data 1971 to 2011The changing geography of deprivation in GB
Paul NormanSchool of GeographyUniversity of Leeds
Fran Darlington-PollockDepartment of Geography & Planning
University of Liverpool
The book chapter itself …
Background provided within previous edited volumes
A Census User’s Handbook (Rhind, 1983) Chapter by Norris and Mounsey on analysing change over time• Long time series of censuses are potentially valuable for studying
change but hampered by:• Changes to the questions asked & definitions used• Changes in the variable combinations in area output tables• Changes in the boundary systems used most particularly at small
area level
The Census Data System (Rees et al., 2002)Chapter by Senior on deprivation indicators• Details the derivation of composite measures which combine
information from separate census variables, each of which is thought to indicate a dimension of deprivation
Deprivation indexes
1971 CensusMore multivariate & underpinned Holterman (1975) on urban deprivationSince then, Senior (2002: 124) notes a “remarkable, and somewhat bewildering, growth in the use of deprivation measures”
Deprivation indexA single figure index that summarises information from several variables that each indicate something relating to deprivation
Various census based deprivation schemes / indexes exist• Jarman Underprivileged Area (UPA)• Townsend• Carstairs
Deprivation measures are cross-sectional
“But” places change …
Changing deprivation has been calculated (e.g. Norman 2010a; Exeter et al., 2011; Norman et al., 2016)
Areas become more or less deprived over time relates to:• Impact of migration on population size (Norman, 2010b;
Norman et al., 2016)• Differences in cancer incidence and survival (Basta et al., 2014;
Blakey et al., 2014; McNally et al., 2012; 2014a; 2014b; 2015)• Inequities in environmental issues (Mitchell and Norman, 2012;
Mitchell et al., 2015)
In the main, as areas become less deprived, good health and other benefits accrue and vice versa• If change in specific places can be tracked then the effect of a
policy such as regeneration can be assessed for its success
Specification
Time frame• Census years: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 & 2011
Geography: GB• 2011 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) & Datazones
Variables: inputs to Townsend deprivation• Unemployment• Non-home ownership• No car access• Overcrowding
Deprivation calculation• Comparable over time
Geography
Boundary change• Census years: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 & 2011• Convert from ‘source’ geographies EDs & OAs• To ‘target’ LSOAs / DZs
Geography: from source to target
Boundary change: data conversion
ED91 LSOA11‐Code LSOA11‐Name Add Source Weight07CNGL05 E01009415 Birmingham 002A 126 223 0.565007CNGL05 E01009416 Birmingham 003A 27 223 0.121107CNGL05 E01009418 Birmingham 001B 30 223 0.134507CNGL05 E01009423 Birmingham 002C 40 223 0.179407CNGL06 E01009417 Birmingham 001A 37 247 0.149807CNGL06 E01009421 Birmingham 004A 210 247 0.850207CNGL07 E01009417 Birmingham 001A 112 264 0.424207CNGL07 E01009419 Birmingham 001C 152 264 0.575807CNGL08 E01009419 Birmingham 001C 260 260 1.0000
Source Unemployed Weight07NGL05 45 0.5650
0.12110.13450.1794
Targets Unemployed002A 25.43003A 5.45001B 6.05002C 8.07
Norman et al. 2003
Input variables
Census years: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 & 2011
Numerators & denominators of• Unemployment• Non-home ownership• No car access• Household overcrowding& Persons
At ED & OA level
Converted to LSOAs for 2011
Calculating comparable deprivation
Standardise variables using z-scores… & sum (equally) to Index
( )zscore
Obs MeanSD
=−
Norman 2010; Exeter et al 2011; Norman et al 2016
Cross-sectional 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Area 8 7 6 5 4
Mean 3.6 9.6 9.5 3.2 4.5
SD 2.3 6.2 6.6 2.1 2.5
Z-score 1.91 -0.42 -0.53 0.86 -0.20
Comparable 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Area 8 7 6 5 4
Mean
SD
Z-score 0.49 0.23 -0.02 -0.27 -0.53
6.08
3.94
Deprivation change: GB 1971 to 2011
GB change in inputs
GB change in deprivation
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Mea
n To
wns
end
Scor
e
England Wales Scotland
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Per
cent
ages
Unemployment Non-home ownership
No car Overcrowding
Deprivation change: GB 1971 to 2011
Consistency between censuses
Deprivation change: GB 1971 & 2011Deprivation change London & surrounds
Glasgow & surrounds
Green = Least; White = Less; Blue = More; Red = Most
Milton Keynes: villages & fields to concrete cows & roundabouts
0
10
20
30
40
50
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
%s
Unemployment Non‐home ownership
No car Overcrowded
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Dep
rivation score
Milton Keynes: villages & fields to concrete cows & roundabouts
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Reflection & the future
Caveats: ‘measured in this way’• LSOAs / Datazones not necessarily the ‘right’ geography• Townsend not necessarily the ‘right’ deprivation
• Input indicators assumed relevant over time• Decennial censuses miss the intervening years
… etc. …• Can be updated using 2021 Census
Index of Multiple Deprivation• Widely used and widely misunderstood
Administrative data• A ‘few’ variables input into Townsend / Carstairs calculation gives a very
similar picture
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