EXPLORATION OF WORLDWIDE METAL DEMAND OF LOW CARBON TRANSPORT AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANCE OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY STRATEGIES Elmer.Rietveld@tno.nl

KevinRectangle

KevinTypewritten Text

KevinTypewritten Text

KevinTypewritten TextAt the author's request, pleasereproduce no more than one pageof this presentation without the author's permission

TNO, A RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGYORGANISATION. LIKE CEA, FHG, SINTEF, VITO ETC.

WHY CAN METAL SUPPLY BE CONSIDERED CRITICAL IN THE FIRST PLACE?

http://publications.tno.nl/publication/34627352/5WmZem/TNO-2018-R11544.pdf

Global Energy Transition and metal demand. 

LOW CARBON ECONOMY: PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

LOW CARBON ECONOMY: TRANSMISSION, STORAGE AND CONVERSION

LOW CARBON ECONOMY: OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION

WORLD ECONOMY, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GROW2014 2030 2050 INDEX 2030

COMPARED TO 2010 (=100)

INDEX 2050 COMPARED

TO 2010 (=100)POPULATION (MILLION #)

6 900 8 480 9 714 122.9 140.7

GDP (BILLION $) 65 957 144 520 252 761 219.1 382.3

BEYOND (“WELL BELOW”) 2 DEGREE SCENARIO, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

31 metals (also Au, Cd, B, Cr, Dy, Ga, Gd, Sm, Tb, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Pr, Ta, Ti, V, Zn)

cobalt outcome, well into safe-space, result of (self imposed) methodological rigour

REE: estimates speak of 7% CAGR, but unofficial

ObservedMineproduction growth 1998‐2016

Required annual growth rate with renewables & batteries2014‐2050 

Speed‐up production towards 2030 and 2050,  compared 1998‐2016 time period?

Silver (Ag) 2.86% 3.0% uncertainAluminium (Al) 5.37% 2.8% safe spaceCerium/Lanthanum (Ce/La) 0.00% 3.2% speed‐upCobalt (Co) 8.1% 4.1% safe spaceCopper (Cu) 2.92% 3.4% speed‐upIron (Fe)  6.55% 3.0% safe spaceIndium (In) 5.41%  3.6% safe spaceLithium (Li) 4.61%  6.2% speed‐upNeodymium (Nd) 0.00% 4.5% speed‐upPlatinum/Palladium (Pt/Pd) 0.02% 2.8% speed‐upSelenium (Se) 3.30% 3.0% safe spaceSilicium (Si) 5.66%  3.3% safe spaceTin (Sn) 2.05% 3.1% speed‐upTellurium (Te) 4.54% 6.9% speed‐up

HOW ADDING UP LOOKS LIKE UP CLOSE, NEODYMIUM

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Neodymium

basis beyond 2C Storage

Observed Mine production growth 1998-2016

Required annual growth rate with renewables & batteries 2011-2050

Speed-up production compared to last 20 years?

Silver (Ag) 2.86% 3.0% uncertainAluminium (Al) 5.37% 2.8% safe spaceGold (Au) 1.48% 2.8% speed-upCadmium (Cd) 0.20% 2.7% speed-upBoron (B) 2.32% 3.2% speed-upCerium/Lanthanum (Ce/La) 0.00% 3.2% speed-upCobalt (Co) 8.07% 4.1% safe spaceChromium (Cr) 5.33% 2.8% safe spaceCopper (Cu) 2.92% 3.4% speed-upDysprosium (Dy) 0.00% 5.2% speed-upIron (Fe) 6.55% 3.0% safe spaceGallium (Ga) -0.77% 3.1% speed-upGadolinium/ Samarium/Terbium (Gd/Sm/Tb) 0.00% 3.8% speed-upIndium (In) 5.41% 3.6% safe spaceLithium (Li) 4.61% 6.2% speed-upMagnesium (Mg) 5.58% 2.7% safe spaceManganese (Mn) 5.40% 2.7% safe spaceMolybdenum (Mo) 3.85% 3.0% safe spaceNeodymium (Nd) 0.00% 4.5% speed-upNickel (Ni) 3.22% 3.3% uncertainLead (Pb) 2.43% 2.7% speed-upPraseodymium (Pr) 0.00% 3.9% speed-upPlatinum/Palladium (Pt/Pd) 0.02% 2.8% speed-upSelenium (Se) 3.30% 3.0% safe spaceSilicium (Si) 5.66% 3.3% safe spaceTin (Sn) 2.05% 3.1% speed-upTantalum (Ta) 5.20% 3.4% safe spaceTellurium (Te) 4.54% 6.9% speed-upTitanium (Ti) 2.00% 2.7% speed-upVanadium (V) 2.75% 3.2% speed-upZinc (Zn) 2.70% 2.8% uncertain

 

CAN CIRCULAR STRATEGIES HELP BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND?

How could it be important in coming years?

Significant (>5%) contribution tobalancing supply and demand

Reduce Substitution Perhaps. Breakthroughs announced each month, wait and see.

Reuse Servitisation, Cascaded use Fair chance. But only when attractive business models prevent trench warfare about regulations.

Recycle More efficient collection, easier disassembly

Unlikely. Demand (quantity and quality) of primary material expected to be too high.

EXAMPLE 1 AND 2: SUBSTITUTION AND CASCADEDUSE OF COMPONENTS

H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements

Na Mg Al Si elements of hopeK Ca Fe

Ti Cr Mn CuB F Ar Br critical elements

frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn GaGe As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM

Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM

Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-27/where-3-million-electric-vehicle-batteries-will-go-when-they-retire

EXAMPLE 3, 4 AND 5: SERVITISATION, BETTER END-OF-LIFE COLLECTION AND EASIER DISASSEMBLY

How delicate is the balance between publicly available data and proprietary knowledge?

What about the attempt to use macroeconomic models and IEA scenario’s to estimate 2030 and 2050 demand?

How can forecasting support corporate or public policy making?

What about the significance of substitution, cascaded use, servitisaton end-of-life collection?

THANK YOU