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Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value...

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1 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Jul Thai Export to Major Destinations 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Jul Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) EU Japan* China ASEAN5 * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods ** ex other manufacturing products US** %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data. Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data %YoY Share 2019 2019 P 2019 P 2020 P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Aug (%MoM) Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -3.1 -10.5 4.2 -15.8 -18.5 -0.4 Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -9.9 -6.7 -12.7 -19.5 -23.8 1.1 Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -11.6 -3.0 -20.6 -13.2 -12.7 1.5 Agro-manufacturing 12.8 0.2 -2.2 2.7 0.5 3.3 -2.2 -2.0 -3.2 5.6 Electronics 14.1 -6.7 -10.4 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 -6.6 -2.5 -3.0 1.0 Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.0 -1.4 3.9 -6.4 5.9 -18.8 2.2 8.7 3.3 Automotive 15.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -27.0 -7.2 -48.1 -26.3 -22.4 0.2 Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.2 -4.8 -7.5 -15.9 -8.9 -23.4 -15.1 -15.6 8.4 Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.1 -10.5 -19.4 -17.8 -9.9 -25.7 -22.5 -14.6 2.8 Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -11.9 -8.2 8.4 Ex. Gold -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -12.3 -3.2 -21.4 -14.3 -13.6 2.4 Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.5 -2.3 -20.8 -13.1 -13.5 2.4 Export Value 1) ( ) represents export share in 2018 2) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018; Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%) 3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development Export by Firm Size Index sa (2015=100) Ex.gold CLMV Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand PH ID MY TH TW CN SG KR 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Total Large Exporter (52%) Medium Exporter (32%) Small Exporter (16%) Aug 20 ME Aug 2020 = 20.1 Bn USD Ex. gold = 17.3 Bn USD Jul 2020 = 18.5 Bn USD Ex. gold = 16.9 Bn USD
Transcript
Page 1: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

1

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Thai Export to Major Destinations

5565758595

105115125135145155

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EUJapan*

China

ASEAN5

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products

US**

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugAug

(%MoM)

Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -3.1 -10.5 4.2 -15.8 -18.5 -0.4Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -9.9 -6.7 -12.7 -19.5 -23.8 1.1Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -11.6 -3.0 -20.6 -13.2 -12.7 1.5

Agro-manufacturing 12.8 0.2 -2.2 2.7 0.5 3.3 -2.2 -2.0 -3.2 5.6Electronics 14.1 -6.7 -10.4 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 -6.6 -2.5 -3.0 1.0

Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.0 -1.4 3.9 -6.4 5.9 -18.8 2.2 8.7 3.3

Automotive 15.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -27.0 -7.2 -48.1 -26.3 -22.4 0.2Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.2 -4.8 -7.5 -15.9 -8.9 -23.4 -15.1 -15.6 8.4

Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.1 -10.5 -19.4 -17.8 -9.9 -25.7 -22.5 -14.6 2.8Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -11.9 -8.2 8.4

Ex. Gold -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -12.3 -3.2 -21.4 -14.3 -13.6 2.4Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.5 -2.3 -20.8 -13.1 -13.5 2.4

Export Value

1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;

Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development

Export by Firm SizeIndex sa (2015=100) Ex.gold

CLMV

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PHIDMY

TH

TWCN

SG

KR

707580859095

100105110115120125130

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov-

15

Apr-1

6

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec-

17

May

-18

Oct-1

8

Mar

-19

Aug-

19

Jan-

20

Jun-

20

TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)

Aug 20

ME

Aug 2020 = 20.1 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 17.3 Bn USDJul 2020 = 18.5 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 16.9 Bn USD

Page 2: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

2

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugAug

(%MoM)

Consumer 11.2 3.0 1.4 4.6 -8.6 -1.6 -15.5 -19.1 -10.9 5.4Raw material & Intermediate 54.6 -7.2 -3.3 -10.9 -11.8 -0.1 -23.4 -23.5 -20.7 3.2

o/w Fuel 14.7 -12.4 -1.3 -22.1 -21.3 4.9 -47.3 -39.1 -36.0 8.1o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel 39.9 -5.1 -4.1 -6.2 -8.2 -2.1 -14.2 -17.8 -14.5 1.8

Capital 23.5 -2.2 -7.1 2.9 -11.2 -4.1 -18.3 -24.8 -13.0 7.8

Others 10.7 -5.6 6.5 -15.7 -23.5 -6.4 -46.0 -56.3 -39.0 41.1

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -25.4 -19.1 6.8

Ex. Gold -4.1 -2.3 -5.9 -11.6 -1.6 -21.5 -23.5 -17.5 5.8

Ex.Gold&Fuel -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -9.5 -3.0 -16.0 -20.4 -13.4 5.4

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueAug 2020 = 14.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 14.5 Bn USD

Jul 2020 = 14.4 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 14.3 Bn USD

60708090

100110120130140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Page 3: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

3

75

85

95

105

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Jul

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)**

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 19.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -8.7 -11.0 -5.8 -1.6 -4.3 -4.1Automotives 13.9 -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -42.5 -18.8 -68.7 -47.7 -29.2 31.3- Passenger Cars 4.8 -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -43.8 -19.9 -70.1 -46.9 -31.7 25.9- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -42.2 -18.8 -68.2 -47.6 -28.5 30.6- Engine 1.3 -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -40.6 -14.4 -69.7 -53.3 -28.1 51.1Petroleum 9.6 -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -9.9 -4.4 -15.5 -5.2 -8.4 -1.5Chemicals 9.2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.2 1.8 5.6Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -10.4 -5.4 -16.2 -15.2 -6.3 7.1Cement & Construction 5.5 -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -1.4 1.2 -4.0 -6.3 -2.7 3.6IC & Semiconductors 5.5 -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -2.6 3.6 -8.7 -5.9 0.9 5.7Electrical Appliances 3.8 5.1 5.0 5.3 -13.1 6.8 -32.4 1.8 3.4 -6.5Textiles & Apparels 3.5 -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -16.6 -4.5 -29.7 -29.4 -28.0 5.1Hard Disk Drive 3.4 -5.3 -14.3 3.8 1.7 6.9 -3.3 -2.4 -22.2 -7.3Others 16.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -10.9 -4.4 -17.8 -11.7 -7.1 2.6MPI 100.0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -12.9 -6.4 -20.0 -12.9 -9.3 3.3MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

100.0 - -2.7 -3.1 -9.8 -0.7 -16.3 6.3 3.3 -

Capacity Utilization (SA) - 66.0 67.3 64.7 59.2 64.1 54.3 58.9 61.4 -

** As the data from April to June 2020 was not published, the index was estimated from the Q2 2020 data.

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

405060708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Jul

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

0.5 %

20.0 %-1.8 %

%MoM sa

%MoM sa

-1.3 %

2.2 %-0.1 %

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Page 4: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

4

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

% YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.7 -1.1 -6.3 -1.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.3 0.8 -1.3

Construction Materials Index -0.6 1.4 -2.6 1.0 -0.3 2.5 1.5 0.2 -3.8Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.2 -0.2 -2.1 -14.1 -9.3 -18.8 -20.0 -9.9 1.0Real Domestic Machinery Sales -5.4 -3.7 -7.1 -10.2 0.6 -21.2 -12.9 -13.0 1.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment -3.0 2.4 -8.7 -17.8 -11.7 -24.5 -16.7 -8.9 4.2

Private Investment Index -2.7 -1.3 -4.0 -9.6 -6.4 -12.8 -7.5 -4.6 -0.2

Private Investment Indicators

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht

-150-100-50

050

100150200

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 5: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

5

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure

(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Aug-25.4%

Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2019 FY2020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul AugRevenue 2,513 2,540 551 777 597 648 537 539 253 211 147(%YoY) (6.8) (1.1) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.1) (5.4) (-2.5) (-30.7) (-33.8) (12.4) (-19.1)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 719 654 679 796 758 788 261 223 183(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (20.6) (15.2) (-3.0) (9.3)Budgetary B/L -368 -435 -168 124 -81 -148 -221 -249 -9 -12 -36Non-Budgetary B/L -28 125 -21 123 52 -125 -15 -166 -25 -75 -23Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -416 -34 -87 -59Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -346 30 -84 -59Net Financing 506 190 99 -38 45 76 111 540 84 96 90Treasury B/L 633 513 289 497 513 316 191 315 315 325 356

Aug-2.0%

Aug47.0%

Page 6: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

6

%YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 2.2 3.1 1.3 -2.7 1.2 -6.8 -0.4 -1.4 -1.0Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 -3.7 -1.7 -5.8 -5.5 -4.6 -0.7Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -20.4 -12.0 -29.1 -15.7 -9.6 5.3Services index 2.9 3.1 2.7 -19.0 -9.9 -28.2 -23.6 -25.6 -1.2(less) Net tourist expenditure 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -60.6 -43.3 -87.2 -92.4 -93.0 -10.1

PCI 2.5 3.5 1.6 -4.2 2.1 -10.3 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Nielsen’s FMCG excl. alcohol and tobacco, 3mma

Fuel, 3mma (RHS)

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Semi-durable, 3mma Durable, 3mma

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

020406080100120140160180

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Service, 3mma Net tourist spending, 3mma (RHS)

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Bank of ThailandNote: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Page 7: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

7

9.1

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Jan2018

Apr Jul2018

Oct Jan2019

Apr Jul2019

Oct Jan2020

Apr Jul2020

Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income

Farm Income

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY

(%YoY) 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug

Nominal farm incomeP 1.4 2.0 1.2 -6.9 -6.3 -6.4 3.0 9.1

Agricultural productionP -0.4 1.2 -1.7 -10.1 -13.9 -5.1 1.0 1.2

Agricultural price 1.8 0.8 2.9 3.6 8.8 -1.4 2.0 7.7

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Page 8: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

2019 2019 2020YTD

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugP

No. of tourists (’000) 39,797 19,769 20,028 6,692 6,692 0 0 0 6,692

%YoY 4.2 1.8 6.8 -66.2 -38.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -74.8

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - -41.0 -100.0 n.a. n.a. -

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2019 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Aug 20

Page 9: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

9

Labor Market Indicators

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

%YOY2019 2019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug

Unemployment rate (sa) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.51.0

(1.0)

2.0

(1.9)

2.1

(2.1)

1.9

(1.9)

EmploymentThousand persons

sa, 3mma

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)

Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)

Note : The data from April to June 2020 was the Q2 2020 data.

Thousand persons sa, 3mma

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33*

%, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: * Employees who contribute to social security system (Section 33) accountfor 31% of total employment.

Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Page 10: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

10

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Rent (19.62%)

Food & Beverage (28.17%)

Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Core Inflation (72.56%)

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

Aug-0.50%

Aug0.30%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Page 11: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

11

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugE YTDTrade Balance 26.7 12.7 14.0 16.1 8.0 8.0 4.1 5.4 25.6Exports (f.o.b.) 242.7 120.6 122.1 110.7 60.9 49.8 18.5 20.1 149.2

%YoY -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -11.9 -8.2 -8.7Imports (f.o.b.) 216.0 107.9 108.1 94.6 52.8 41.7 14.4 14.7 123.6

%YoY -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -25.4 -19.1 -14.9Net Services, Income & Transfers 10.3 4.0 6.3 -6.5 0.8 -7.4 -2.4 -2.4 -11.3Current Account 37.0 16.7 20.3 9.6 8.9 0.7 1.7 3.0 14.3Capital and Financial Account -15.7 -8.6 -7.1 1.7 -8.4 10.1 0.4 -0.4 1.8Overall Balance 13.6 5.6 8.0 15.4 4.5 11.0 2.7 2.1 20.3

Page 12: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

12

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jul AugE YTD1. Assets -16,746 -9,633 -7,113 8,169 -3,884 12,053 1,998 460 10,628TDI -10,144 -5,368 -4,776 -9,961 -5,822 -4,139 -711 126 -10,546- Equity -3,809 -2,743 -1,067 -5,293 -1,493 -3,800 -478 -295 -6,066- Reinvestment of earnings -1,093 -734 -359 -665 -239 -426 -75 -73 -813

Thai portfolio investment -7,698 -1,501 -6,197 2,893 78 2,815 297 -1,862 1,329- Equity security investment -2,495 -121 -2,374 -1,424 424 -1,848 -1,297 -1,736 -4,457- Debt security investment -5,203 -1,380 -3,823 4,317 -346 4,663 1,594 -126 5,786

Loans 877 1,292 -415 -2,303 -703 -1,601 1,497 -121 -927Other investments 219 -4,055 4,275 17,540 2,562 14,978 915 2,317 20,772- Trade credits -2,451 -2,159 -291 3,264 125 3,140 -873 -260 2,132- Deposits abroad -1,231 -4,145 2,914 11,756 1,457 10,299 1,804 1,755 15,315

2. Liabilities 1,090 1,049 41 -6,466 -4,491 -1,974 -1,606 -821 -8,893FDI 4,817 2,371 2,445 2,192 2,789 -598 -517 442 2,117- Equity 3,257 722 2,535 2,292 1,600 691 168 320 2,780- Reinvestment of earnings 2,092 2,300 -208 -251 1,375 -1,626 -701 -24 -976

Foreign portfolio investment -946 1,287 -2,233 -8,799 -7,281 -1,518 720 -511 -8,591- Equity security investment 56 840 -784 -6,657 -3,651 -3,006 -284 -838 -7,779- Debt security investment -1,002 447 -1,449 -2,143 -3,630 1,487 1,004 327 -812

Loans 1,852 -1,064 2,916 3,091 1,397 1,693 -1,259 -271 1,561Other investments -4,633 -1,546 -3,087 -2,949 -1,397 -1,552 -550 -481 -3,980- Trade credits -2,037 -909 -1,128 -651 -395 -256 376 318 43- Deposits abroad 929 838 91 466 667 -201 -22 -120 324

Total financial flows (1+2) -15,656 -8,584 -7,072 1,703 -8,375 10,079 392 -361 1,735

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Page 13: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · (3) Equity : new issuance at par value Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht-150-100-50

13

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

NEER REER USDTHB

Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters

% p.a. Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

Sep 2020(Average data

until 24 Sep 2020)THB Appreciation

Aug-20109.0

Sep-20118.7

Sep-20105.2

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

-1.3%

0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4%1.9%

3.5% 3.9%

-0.8%0.0% 0.6%

1.5%

-0.3%

0.4% 0.8%

1.8%

0.5%0.4%

1.0%

-0.1%

-1.2%-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

IDR VND TWD INR THB JPY KRW CNY PHP SGD MYR EUR GBP

Avg of Aug 20 compared to avg of Jul 20

Avg of Sep 20 compared to avg of Aug 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

29-D

ec-1

723

-Jan-

1813

-Feb

-18

7-M

ar-1

828

-Mar

-18

23-A

pr-1

815

-May

-18

6-Ju

n-18

27-Ju

n-18

18-Ju

l-18

10-A

ug-1

83-

Sep-

1824

-Sep

-18

16-O

ct-1

87-

Nov-

1828

-Nov

-18

21-D

ec-1

815

-Jan-

195-

Feb-

1927

-Feb

-19

20-M

ar-1

911

-Apr

-19

8-M

ay-1

930

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

12-Ju

l-19

5-Au

g-19

27-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

8-Oc

t-19

31-O

ct-1

921

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

98-

Jan-

2029

-Jan-

2020

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

02-

Apr-2

024

-Apr

-20

20-M

ay-2

011

-Jun-

202-

Jul-2

024

-Jul-2

019

-Aug

-20

11-S

ep-2

0

Latest data24 Sep 2020

(Avg Sep data until 24 Sep 2020)

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

0

1

2

3

4

5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Q1-2

0

Q2-2

0

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Aug 2020E

4.2


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