Extended Operations (ETOPS): An Enhancement to Longhaul ...

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Extended Operations (ETOPS): An Enhancement to Longhaul

Flight Safety

Extended Operations (ETOPS): An Enhancement to Longhaul

Flight Safety

Mohan R. PandeyDirector, Operational Regulatory AffairsCommercial Airplanes, The Boeing Company

Mohan R. PandeyDirector, Operational Regulatory AffairsCommercial Airplanes, The Boeing Company

WARNING: The technology herein is controlled by U.S. Export Administration

Regulations. Any export or re-export of this technology must comply with the EAR. Controlled by ECCN: 9E991 Date: May 8, 2007

MohanPandey.2BOEING PROPRIETARY COPYRIGHT © 2007 THE BOEING COMPANY

ETOPS ?ETOPS ?


Note: Typical operational range is 400 nmi.Blue represents regions beyond the 60-minute rule limit.

60-Minute Rule Limits Twin-Engine Route Opportunities60-Minute Rule Limits Twin-Engine Route Opportunities


Worldwide ETOPS standards share a common

intent and many common requirements

The Evolution of ETOPSThe Evolution of ETOPS

20071953

60 Minute Rule(FAR 121.161)

Tri-jet Relief

ETOPS

19851903

First Flight

1964

1985

AC 120-42– 120/138 min

1988

AC 120-42A– 75/120/180 min

1994

Draft Appendix 7– AcceleratedETOPS

EPL 20-1 – 207 min (777)

2001

PolarPolicy

2003

ARAC

Report

2004

ETOPS

NPRM

2000

Twin engine airplane capabilities have evolved based on improvedreliability of jet engines.

1990

Early

ETOPSSimulated ETOPS

1999 2007

ETOPS*

Extended

Operations

Rescue Fire

Fighting Policy

*Including tris and quads

1998

Icing Policy

APU start Policy

1936

100 Mile Rule

International Aviation Technology And Management Conference & Workshops Page 55


Boeing ETOPS Operations Are Routine Worldwide*Through June 2007

43,000 ETOPS flights per month

4,637,000 cumulative ETOPS flights109 current ETOPS operators

* 737, 757, 767, and 777. Note: Besides scheduled commercial flights, this map also includes charter and some VIP ETOPS flights. 767-ET-0020•ppt

9-19-7-DH/KW/CJ


Boeing Twins Are Changing the WorldNorth Atlantic Air Traffic Patterns, U.S. Airlines - As of August 2007 OAG

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

'77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

U.S. to

Europe:weekly

non-stop

frequencies, one way

Boeing Twins

757, 767 and 777

Quads - 747, DC-8,

707 and Concorde

Tri's -

L1011, MD-

11, and DC-10 Airbus Twins

A300, A310,

and A330


Boeing Twins Are Changing The WorldNorth Pacific Routes from OAG - August of each year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

U.S.

(including

Hawaii)

and Canada

Across the

North Pacific

to Asia:

weekly

non-stop

frequencies,

one way

747

L1011, DC-10 and MD-11

777

767

A340

A330


1990 ETOPS Conference1990 ETOPS Conference

“ETOPS is, in my opinion, one of twoprograms in recent times which havesignificantly improved aviation safety.”

Anthony J. Broderick

FAA Associate Administrator

for Regulation and Certification



Mitigating Risk while Permitting Flexibility ..Mitigating Risk while Permitting Flexibility ..

20071953

60 Minute Rule(FAR 121.161)

Tri-jet Relief

ETOPS

19851903

First Flight

1964

1985

AC 120-42– 120/138 min

1988

AC 120-42A– 75/120/180 min

1994

Draft Appendix 7– AcceleratedETOPS

EPL 20-1 – 207 min (777)

2001

PolarPolicy

2003

ARAC

Report

2004

ETOPS

NPRM

2000

Twin engine airplane capabilities have evolved based on improvedreliability of jet engines.

1990

Early

ETOPS

1999 2007

ETOPS*

Extended

Operations

Rescue Fire

Fighting Policy

*Including tris and quads

1998

Icing Policy

APU start Policy

1936

100 Mile Rule

Simulated ETOPS

….. This approach assures that two-engine

airplanes are consistent with the level of safety

required for current extended range operations

with three and four-engine turbine-powered

airplanes without unnecessarily restricting

operation.

(FAA AC 120-42 dated June 6, 1985; Para 6, Pg 4)

….. This approach assures that two-engine

airplanes are consistent with the level of safety

required for current extended range operations

with three and four-engine turbine-powered

airplanes without unnecessarily restricting

operation.

(FAA AC 120-42 dated June 6, 1985; Para 6, Pg 4)


…Because of the potential benefits

associated with the superior design of airplane-engine combinations

demonstrated under the existing ETOPS certification programs, the

FAA has decided to extend those requirements to the airplanes with

more than two engines should the manufacturer wish to market these

airplanes as suitable for ETOPS operation. …

…Airplanes with more than two

engines had minimal part 121 regulatory guidance ... …in areas of

equipment requirements and fuel planning for a maximum diversion

…

…Because of the potential benefits

associated with the superior design of airplane-engine combinations

demonstrated under the existing ETOPS certification programs, the

FAA has decided to extend those requirements to the airplanes with

more than two engines should the manufacturer wish to market these

airplanes as suitable for ETOPS operation. …

…Airplanes with more than two

engines had minimal part 121 regulatory guidance ... …in areas of

equipment requirements and fuel planning for a maximum diversion

…


ETOPS Philosophy:ETOPS Philosophy:

Preclude a Diversion- DesignEnhance System Reliability

Propulsion Risk Management

Preclude a Diversion- Maintenance

Propulsion & Systems Health Monitoring

Event Oriented Reliability

Dual Maintenance, etc.Protect the Diversion, if it happens- Flight

Operations

Enroute alternate selection

Fuel Planning






Preclude a Diversion- MaintenancePropulsion & Systems Health Monitoring


Dual Maintenance, etc.Protect the Diversion, if it happens-Flight Operations


Fuel Planning

ETOPS embodies SafetyManagement System (SMS)

- Proactive- Reactive- Predictive









Operations


Fuel Planning


ICAO 4th Standing Committee on Performance Final Report SCP-WP/228, June 19, 1953

1953 engine failure

rate of 0.35 per 1000 engine hours (best estimate: Inflight

Shutdown (IFSD) rate of 0.70 per 1000

engine hours) suggests acceptance

by authorities of a dual engine failure probability for

unrelated causes of ≈10-6 to 10-7

Proactive Risk Management


ICAO Report AN-WP/5593 “ Extended Range Operation of Twin –Engine

Commercial Air Transport Aeroplanes” Feb 15, 1984

For flight of 7 hours with diversion time of 2 hours (120 min), Inflight Shutdown (IFSD) = 0.05/1000 engine hours


Enhancement in the Level of Safety

Dual engine failure probability for unrelated causes of ≈ 10-8



ICAO Report AN-WP/5593 “ Extended Range Operation of Twin –Engine Commercial Air Transport Aeroplanes” Feb 15, 1984

Using the same ICAO equationFor flight of 7 hours with diversion time of 3 hours (180 min),

Inflight Shutdown (IFSD) = 0.04/1000 engine hours

IFSD for 180 min = .02/1000 engine hours

The FAA, citing “uncertainties associated with assumptions

identified in the ICAO study,” decided to halve this number, demanding the Industry to meet even higher standards.


Further Enhancement in the Level of Safety


To get approx. the same .02/1000 eng hrs (as the FAA)

JAA tried to justify by further tightening the probability

of dual engine failure by replacing 10-8 by 0.3x10-8 in

the above Equation. Resulting curve:




ICAO Report AN-WP/5593 “ Extended Range Operation of Twin –Engine

Commercial Air Transport Aeroplanes” Feb 15, 1984

Using the same ICAO equationFor flight of 7 hours with

diversion time of 3 hours (180 min), Inflight Shutdown (IFSD)

= 0.04/1000 engine hours

The FAA, because of ‘uncertainties associated with assumptions identified in the

ICAO study, decided to halve this number.

Hence IFSD for 180 min = .02/1000 engine hours

207 min = .019/1000 engine hours

Dual engine failure probability

for unrelated causes further reduced compared to 120 min




ARAC Working Group ParticipantsARAC Working Group Participants

Airlines

U.S.—American Airlines, American Trans Air, Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, UPS, US Airways

Non-U.S.—ANA, British Airways, KLM, and SAS representing Association of European Airlines (AEA)

Industry Associations

European Association of Aerospace Industries

(AECMA), General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), Air Transport Association (ATA), National Air Transportation Association (NATA), National Air Carriers Association (NACA), International Federation of Air Line Dispatchers’ Associations (IFALDA)

Manufacturers

Airframe—Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Cessna, Gulfstream

Engine—General Electric, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

Pilots’ Associations

Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), Independent Association of Continental Pilots (recently merged with ALPA), Allied Pilots Association (APA), Coalition of Airline Pilots Associations (CAPA), International

Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA)

Regulators

U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Transport

Canada, Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) of Europe represented by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), DGAC France, and CASA Australia

Other Participants

Air Crash Victims Families Association (ACVFA)

International, Diverse, Industry Experts



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ETOPS

Div

Time

(Rule

Time)

ICAO

(1)

FAA AC

120-42 a,

207 min

Policy

(2)

JAA IL

#20

(3)

Relative

Risk

Baseline

0.05

(Linear)

(4)

Relative

Risk

Baseline

0.02

(SQRT)

(5)

FAA

ETOPS Exposure

Index

EEI

Constant

(6)

Boeing

NPA –

Phased

Mission

Analysis

(7)

1 0.066 0.036 0.100 0.035 0.026 0.023 2 0.046 0.050 0.025 0.050 0.024 0.019 0.017 3 0.038 0.020 0.021 0.033 0.020 0.016 0.014

3.45 0.035 0.019 0.019 0.029 0.019 0.015 0.013 4 0.033 0.018 0.025 0.017 0.014 0.013 5 0.029 0.016 0.020 0.015 0.013 0.012 6 0.027 0.015 0.017 0.014 0.013 0.011 7 0.025 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.010 8 0.023 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.010 9 0.022 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.010

10 0.021 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.010

•All risk models for twins converge at 0.01/1000 IFSD rate

•This puts the likelihood of a dual independent In-flight shutdown

on the same level as loss of all hydraulic or essential electrical

power (Extremely Improbable ~ 10-9)

Twins Propulsion Risk Models Converge Twins Propulsion Risk Models Converge

For maximum mission of 20 Hours with 10 Hour DiversionFor maximum mission of 20 Hours with 10 Hour Diversion


Tremendous Achievement in the Level of Safety


New Extended Operations (ETOPS) RuleNew Extended Operations (ETOPS) Rule

Final FAA rule16January 2007

2000 2002 2003 2004

ARACLaunched by

FAA and regularmeetings started

June 2000

Creation ofdraft rules

October 26, 2002

ARAC finalizes itsrecommendations

FAA internallegal process to

get to NPRM

Nov. 14, 2003 - NPRM (Rule only)

published for public comments

PublicComment

period endsMarch 15, 2004

FAA resolution of commentsand write final rule

December 16, 2002 - ARAC recommendations

made public, submitted to the FAA

2005FAA 2006 2007 20082001

ARAC

Report submitted

Dec 16, 2002

207 minComments

FAA Tasking

ARAC June 14, 2000FAA issues NPRM

Nov 14, 2003

Public

Comments

Closed March 15,

2004

FAA addresses comments

PolarConcerns

LROPSproposals

DOT

OMBconcurrence

Final Rule (Federal Register)

(16 January 2007)

DOTOMB

concurrence


The Industry has Stepped Up to Higher Standards

Twins on the world fleet average IFSD

Year IFSD

per 1,000 engine hours

1953- 60 min rule 0.70

1985- 120 min rule 0.05 (Requirement)

1988- 180 min rule 0.02 (Requirement)

2007- greater than

180min to 240 and

beyond 0.01 (Requirement)

≈ 0.005 (actual)

Nearly 140 times

Improvement


Preclude a Diversion- DesignEnhance System Reliability/ Capability






Operations


Fuel Planning

ETOPS Philosophy: Permit Airplane Flexibility while Minimizing Risk

ETOPS Philosophy: Permit Airplane Flexibility while Minimizing Risk



Proactive & Reactive Risk ManagementETOPS (Twins only) Maintenance Program

Proactive & Reactive Risk ManagementETOPS (Twins only) Maintenance Program

Propulsion & Systems Health MonitoringEvent Oriented Reliability

ETOPS Significant Systems

Dual Maintenance (Human Factors), etc.

Proactive

Reactive


Miami, Florida, U.S.A., 1983 Miami, Florida, U.S.A., 1983

Missing chip detector OMissing chip detector O--rings, rings, LL--10111011

Ensure that maintenance performed on dual or redundant systems do not induce errors into both systems which could result in the loss of total capability

- Same mechanic will not work on similar significant systems on both sides (left & right) on same visit. If unavoidable, require inspection; e.g.,

- Swapping parts for troubleshooting not recommended

- Split checks between left and right…

Risk Management –Proactive StepsRisk Management –Proactive Steps



Oil Consumption Monitoring Program

– Baseline oil consumption rate for each engine and APU

– To identify excessive oil use, determine any long term increasing trends in oil consumption rate

– Investigation & correction of consumption rate problems could prevent serious failures

Engine Condition Monitoring (ECM)

– To detect early deterioration of engines & to allow for corrective action to be taken before safe operation is affected (ECM is mandatory for ETOPS)

Oil Consumption Rate -- Trend Chart

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Consecutive Flight Readings

Qu

art

s/h

ou

r



ETOPS Significant SystemsETOPS Significant Systems

Identify airplane systems that affect the ETOPS mission. IncreasIdentify airplane systems that affect the ETOPS mission. Increased maintenance ed maintenance emphasisemphasis for these Systemsfor these Systems

Reliability Program & ReportingReliability Program & Reporting

Event Oriented Program, No Alert Levels used to determine when tEvent Oriented Program, No Alert Levels used to determine when to Investigateo Investigate

Each ETOPS Significant System Problem Investigated following itsEach ETOPS Significant System Problem Investigated following its OccurrenceOccurrence

Propulsion System ReliabilityPropulsion System Reliability

Every IFSD event must be investigatedEvery IFSD event must be investigated

Determine cause of IFSD; develop, implement & verify corrective Determine cause of IFSD; develop, implement & verify corrective actionaction

ETOPS Parts ControlETOPS Parts Control

Ensure that ETOPS required parts are obtained and used and that Ensure that ETOPS required parts are obtained and used and that parts not parts not authorized for ETOPS are not usedauthorized for ETOPS are not used



Impact of ETOPS Maintenance Focus (An example of B747/JT9D-7A)

Impact of ETOPS Maintenance Focus (An example of B747/JT9D-7A)


Predictive Risk Management

ETOPS Flight Operations Program


ETOPS Flight Operations Program

Define ETOPS routes and adequate alternates

ETOPS Flight Plan

Alternate Weather

ETOPS MEL

X

X

X

XETP 1

ETP 2

DepartureAirport

DestinationAirport

AlternateAirport

AlternateAirport

Critical Point

Normal FlightOne - Engine

Cruise

SelectedIAS

De

sce

nt

to 1

50

0ft

15

Min

ute

s H

old

ing

First

Ap

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ach

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nd

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ach

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an

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De

sce

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Vm

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o


Cruise

Subsequent Longer Cruise Segment

Cruise

Risk

Approach and

landing

Minimal effect

on risk


Safety First- even in Diversion

Takeoff and Climb

Taxi out

Approach and

landing

Flight Length

ETOPS

ETOPS is a subset of cruise


Clarification on “Suitable Airport”Provides flight crew with greater flexibility in perusing the safest course of action

Clarification on “Suitable Airport”Provides flight crew with greater flexibility in perusing the safest course of action

Airplanes are required to divert to the nearest suitable airport in case of engine failure

Factors to Consider for

Suitability•Airplane configuration, weight,

systems status, and fuel remaining.

•Wind and weather conditions en route

at the diversion altitude.

•Minimum altitudes en route to the

diversion airport.

•Fuel burn to the diversion airport.

•Airport nearby terrain, weather and

wind.

•Runways available and runway surface

condition.

•Approach navigation aids and lighting

available.

•Rescue and fire fighting services

(RFFS) at the diversion airport.

•Facilities for passenger and

crewmember disembarkation and

accommodations.

•PIC’s familiarity with the airport.

•Information about the airport provided

to the PIC by the certificate holder.




FAA New Rules- All AirplanesPredictive Risk Management

FAA New Rules- All Airplanes

�Passenger Recovery: Polar, and ETOPS beyond 180 min

�Wind accountability on System Limits for ETOPS beyond 180 min

�Rescue & Fire Fighting (RFFS) at enroute alternates 4 up to 180 min codified (twins); For operations beyond 180 min at least one adequate airport with RFFS 7


AnchorageAnchorage

San FranciscoSan Francisco

Los AngelesLos AngelesChicagoChicagoWashingtonWashington

New YorkNew York

DelhiDelhi

LondonLondon

KarachiKarachi

MoscowMoscow

FrankfurtFrankfurt

SingaporeSingapore

TokyoTokyo

BeijingBeijing

Polar Operations


All Roads Lead to…………..All Roads Lead to…………..

South NYCSouth NYC

South BEJSouth BEJ


Polar Operations Policy incorporated into RulesPolar Operations Policy incorporated into Rules

* … the certificate holder’s operations specifications must contain the following: (1) The designation of airports that

may be used for en-route diversions and the requirements the airports must meet at the time of diversion. …

*



ETOPS Program is a Commitment to Safety by the Regulator and the Airline

ETOPS promotes a robust Safety System


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