Extensions of the March 28, 2009

Bakersfield Valley CAN Event

Extensions of the March 28, 2009

Bakersfield Valley CAN Event

Emily WimbergerEmily Wimberger

ObjectivesObjectives

Vehicle fleet and owner characteristics

Registration status of vehicles attending the Tune In Tune Up event Does the event have an impact on vehicle registration status

Further program improvements Increase emission reductions Identify dirty vehicles before repairs

Evaluate CARFAX as a research tool

Vehicle fleet and owner characteristics

Registration status of vehicles attending the Tune In Tune Up event Does the event have an impact on vehicle registration status

Further program improvements Increase emission reductions Identify dirty vehicles before repairs

Evaluate CARFAX as a research tool

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Tom Knox - Valley CAN Doug Lawson - NREL Pierre Mérel - UC Davis Jeffrey Williams - UC Davis Rocky Carlisle - IMRC Cindy Stover - ARB CARFAX

Tom Knox - Valley CAN Doug Lawson - NREL Pierre Mérel - UC Davis Jeffrey Williams - UC Davis Rocky Carlisle - IMRC Cindy Stover - ARB CARFAX

Bakersfield FleetMileage and Model Year

Bakersfield FleetMileage and Model Year

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Model Year

Mile

age

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Model Year

Mile

age

Bakersfield FleetVehicle Make

Bakersfield FleetVehicle Make

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Acu

ra

BM

W

Bui

ck

Cad

illa

c

Che

vrol

et

Chr

ysle

r

Dod

ge

For

d

Geo

GM

C

Hon

da

Hya

ndai

Hyu

ndai

Infi

niti

Isuz

u

Jeep Kia

Lin

coln

Maz

da

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

Mer

cury

Mit

subi

shi

Nis

san

Old

smob

ile

Ply

mou

th

Pon

tiac

Sat

urn

Suz

uki

Toy

ota

Vol

ksw

agen

Vol

vo

blan

k

Nu

mb

er o

f V

ehic

les

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Acu

ra

BM

W

Bui

ck

Cad

illa

c

Che

vrol

et

Chr

ysle

r

Dod

ge

For

d

Geo

GM

C

Hon

da

Hya

ndai

Hyu

ndai

Infi

niti

Isuz

u

Jeep Kia

Lin

coln

Maz

da

Mer

cede

s-B

enz

Mer

cury

Mit

subi

shi

Nis

san

Old

smob

ile

Ply

mou

th

Pon

tiac

Sat

urn

Suz

uki

Toy

ota

Vol

ksw

agen

Vol

vo

blan

k

Nu

mb

er o

f V

ehic

les

Registration Status Registration Status

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Veh

icle

s w

ith

Cu

rren

t R

egis

trat

ion

in C

alif

orn

ia

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Veh

icle

s w

ith

Cu

rren

t R

egis

trat

ion

in C

alif

orn

ia

Registration Status on Day of Bakersfield EventRegistration Status on Day of Bakersfield Event

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Veh

icle

s w

ith

Cu

rren

t R

egis

trat

ion

in

Cal

ifor

nia

94 Vehicles with Current Registation atTime of Event

204 Vehicles Not Registered at Time ofEvent

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Veh

icle

s w

ith

Cu

rren

t R

egis

trat

ion

in

Cal

ifor

nia

94 Vehicles with Current Registation atTime of Event

204 Vehicles Not Registered at Time ofEvent

Valley CAN Registration Impact

Valley CAN Registration Impact

160 vehicles did not pass pre-repair inspection, had complete information, and received complete repairs

104 of these vehicles did not have current registration status March 28, 2010

51 of the 104 unregistered vehicles had current registration status as of April 8, 2010

160 vehicles did not pass pre-repair inspection, had complete information, and received complete repairs

104 of these vehicles did not have current registration status March 28, 2010

51 of the 104 unregistered vehicles had current registration status as of April 8, 2010

Vehicle ComparisonsVehicle Comparisons

51 Vehicles

94 Vehicles Registered at Event

Remaining 153

Unregistered Vehicles

Average Model Year

1993 1995 1994

Average Mileage

147,386 miles

160,583 miles

143,708 miles

Average Repair Cost

$587.68 $405.68 $347.82

Fleet ComparisonsFleet Comparisons

51 Vehicles

94 Register

ed Vehicles

Remaining 153

Unregistered

Vehicles

California Smog Check Inspection Prior to

Event88% 97% 89%

Average Number of Days Between Last Smog Check

and Event483 Days 476 Days 620 Days

Passed Last Smog Inspection Prior to

Event47% 78% 41%

Issued a Junk Title or Salvage Certificate

Prior to Event2% 9% 19%

Issued a Junk Title or Salvage Certificate

After the Event0% 7% 16%

Accident Reported Prior to Event

4% 18% 13%

Ownership ComparisonsOwnership Comparisons

51 Vehicles94

Registered Vehicles

Remaining 153

Unregistered

Vehicles

Average Number of Vehicle Owners

3 Owners 3 Owners 4 Owners

Average Number of Years Owned at the Event

5 Years 4.8 Years 4.5 Years

Sold After the Event 35% 20% 32%

Average Length of Time Sold After Event

44 days 105 days 70 days

Registered out of State Prior to Event

7% 20% 21%

Ever Leased 18% 20% 14%

Ever Classified as a Fleet Vehicle

16% 30% 18%

Ever Sold at an Auction 20% 27% 22%

Emission Levels at Event

Emission Levels at Event

51 Vehicles94

Registered Vehicles

Remaining 153

Unregistered

Vehicles

Average HC emissions

recorded at Event242.35 ppm 226.46 ppm 374.12 ppm

Average CO emissions

recorded at Event1.2% 0.93% 1.8s%

Passed Event Emission

Inspection4% 15% 9%

MIL illuminated at Event

51% 89% 36%

Visible Smoke at Event

2% 2% 1%

Bakersfield Fleet and Repairs

Bakersfield Fleet and Repairs

Redeemed Repair Vouchers 298 Vehicles

Passed Pre-Repair Inspection 47 Vehicles

Not Testable 7 Vehicles

Incomplete Information 4 Vehicles

NOx Not Required or Missing NOx Data

21 Vehicles

Incomplete Repair 84 Vehicles

Complete Repair 184 Vehicles

Complete Repair, Failed Pre-Repair Inspection, and had

Complete Information160 Vehicles

Incomplete RepairsIncomplete Repairs

No inspection after incomplete repair

Passed inspection following incomplete

repair

Failed inspection following incomplete

repair

Tamper following incomplete repair

Abort following incomplete repair

No inspection records

correspond to VIN or license plate

No inspection records after 2008

No inspection after incomplete repair

Passed inspection following incomplete

repair

Failed inspection following incomplete

repair

Tamper following incomplete repair

Abort following incomplete repair

No inspection records

correspond to VIN or license plate

No inspection records after 2008

First Post Event Inspection Results for all 298 Vehicles Issued

Vouchers

First Post Event Inspection Results for all 298 Vehicles Issued

Vouchers Received a Smog Inspection

After the Event64 Vehicles

Passed First Smog Inspection After the Event

42 Vehicles66% Pass

Rate

Average Number of Days Between Event and Subsequent Smog

Inspection269 Days

Had Complete Repairs and Passed First Smog Inspection After the

Event31 Vehicles

DID NOT Complete Repairs and Passed First Smog Inspection

After the Event11 Vehicles

Emission Reductions Emission Reductions 255 vehicle sample

Failed pre-repair inspection Repair cost greater than cost of inspection

Across the 255 vehicle sample, total emissions were reduced by 36,595 lbs

The total cost of these emission reductions was $110,756

Each pound of emission reduction cost $3.03

How can we improve the efficiency of the event?

255 vehicle sample Failed pre-repair inspection Repair cost greater than cost of inspection

Across the 255 vehicle sample, total emissions were reduced by 36,595 lbs

The total cost of these emission reductions was $110,756

Each pound of emission reduction cost $3.03

How can we improve the efficiency of the event?

Marginal Cost of Emission ReductionsMarginal Cost of

Emission Reductions In order to maximize emission reductions, we first look at each vehicle and estimate the cost to reduce emissions by one unit

In order to maximize emission reductions, we first look at each vehicle and estimate the cost to reduce emissions by one unit

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Marginal CostMarginal Cost

Marginal Cost = Total Repair Cost

Change in Emissions

Change in Emissions = Pre-repair Emissions - Post-repair

Emissions

Marginal Cost = Total Repair Cost

Change in Emissions

Change in Emissions = Pre-repair Emissions - Post-repair

Emissions

Marginal Cost for Event Vehicles Marginal Cost for Event Vehicles

118 of the 255 vehicles had both pre and post-repair emissions levels

We calculated the marginal cost of emission reductions for these vehicles

118 of the 255 vehicles had both pre and post-repair emissions levels

We calculated the marginal cost of emission reductions for these vehicles

Marginal Cost CalculationsMarginal Cost Calculations

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Model Year

Mar

gin

al C

ost

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Model Year

Mar

gin

al C

ost

Marginal Cost CurveMarginal Cost Curve

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Average Emission

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Average Emission

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

Cost Curves by Model Year

Cost Curves by Model Year1986-1991 Model Years

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Average Emissions

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

1986-1991 Model Years

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Average Emissions

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

2000 and Newer Model Years

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Average Emissions

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

2000 and Newer Model Years

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Average Emissions

Mar

gina

l Cos

t

Moving along the Cost Curve

Moving along the Cost Curve

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Average Emissions

Mar

gin

al C

ost

Observed

Hypothetical case with reduced emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Average Emissions

Mar

gin

al C

ost

Observed

Hypothetical case with reduced emissions

Estimating Marginal Cost

Estimating Marginal Cost

We grouped all 255 vehicles by model year 1985 and older 1986-1991 1992-1995 1996-1999 2000 and newer

We then estimated the marginal cost for the 137 vehicles that had no post-repair emission data

We grouped all 255 vehicles by model year 1985 and older 1986-1991 1992-1995 1996-1999 2000 and newer

We then estimated the marginal cost for the 137 vehicles that had no post-repair emission data

Optimal RepairsOptimal Repairs

Given the marginal cost and the average emissions for all vehicles, we calculated the optimal amount of repair dollars and the resulting change in emissions for each vehicle

Given the marginal cost and the average emissions for all vehicles, we calculated the optimal amount of repair dollars and the resulting change in emissions for each vehicle

Event and Optimal Statistics

Event and Optimal Statistics

Event Optimal

Pounds of Total Emissions Saved

39,341 lbs 123,307 lbs

Number of Vehicles with

Complete Repairs 118 Vehicles 140 Vehicles

Average Repair Dollars Per

Vehicle$333.40 $938.85

Cost Per Pound of Emission Reduction

$2.82 $0.90

CaveatsCaveats Assumes the goal is total emission reductions, not vehicles obtaining smog check certificates

Assumes all vehicles at the event are being driven regardless of smog inspection or registration status

The high repair cost per vehicle shows that there is lots of room for improvement, but does not mean that $1,000 repair vouchers are feasible

These are preliminary results We raise many questions but not making policy recommendations

Assumes the goal is total emission reductions, not vehicles obtaining smog check certificates

Assumes all vehicles at the event are being driven regardless of smog inspection or registration status

The high repair cost per vehicle shows that there is lots of room for improvement, but does not mean that $1,000 repair vouchers are feasible

These are preliminary results We raise many questions but not making policy recommendations

Next StepsNext Steps

Look at the correlation between the emission levels of vehicles at the event and emission levels at the time of repair Can we identify and target vehicles that will have a low marginal cost of emission reductions? Tiered vouchers Vehicle retirement

Can we identify vehicles at the event that fall into the ‘51 Vehicles’ category

Look at the correlation between the emission levels of vehicles at the event and emission levels at the time of repair Can we identify and target vehicles that will have a low marginal cost of emission reductions? Tiered vouchers Vehicle retirement

Can we identify vehicles at the event that fall into the ‘51 Vehicles’ category