Eye tracking and its economic feasibility

MT5009 – Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities

Opportunities in Eye-Tracking

For information on other new technologies that are becoming economically feasible, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Group Introduction

• Adrianus Mradipta A0033067

• Desmond Wong A0082079

• Koh Kian Hong A0082082

• Ong Fu Lin A0098508

• Peh Tiong Seng A0098563

Before we begin…

Reebok Advertisement

Before we begin…

Note how men didn’t notice the shoes AT ALL!!

• Introduction

– Brief History

– Underlying Technology

• Technology Improvements

– What was holding the technology back?

– How has it improved?

– Will it improve further?

• Future Opportunities

Content

• What is eye tracking?

– Technique of measuring and monitoring the point of gaze (where someone is looking)

• Identifies:

– first fixations

– fixation order

– gaze time

Introduction

Brief History

• 1870s - Scientific Study of Eye Movement Began

• 1900s - Photography Improvement Non-Invasive Techniques

• 1940s - Head-Mounted Eye Trackers First Developed

• 1970s - High Speed Data Processing & Cognitive Science

• 1980s - Human Computer Interface Developed

• 1990s - Commercial Applications Made Practical

Underlying Technology

• Current eye-tracking technology uses: corneal reflection technology

– Infrared diodes generate reflection from the cornea

– Reflections are collected by infrared image sensors (cameras)

– Image analysis + mathematical algorithms determine where the user is looking


Current eye-tracking technology uses: corneal reflection technology


• Why infrared is used?

– To distinguish pupil shape from the iris.

– Pupils become clear in infrared vision

Normal Vision Infrared Vision

How corneal reflection determines the line of sight

Infrared capable camera

Infrared LED Mechanical Housing

Computer (processing power)

Components of the modern eye tracking system:


Labeled as “promising” for the past 50 years

• “For a long time now there has been a great need for a means of recording where people are looking while they work at particular tasks. A whole series of unsolved problems awaits such a technique” (Mackworth & Thomas, 1962, p.713).

• “...[T]he eyetracking system has a promising future in usability engineering” (Benel, Ottens & Horst, 1991, p.465).

• “...[A]ggregating, analyzing, and visualizing eye tracking data in conjunction with other interaction data holds considerable promise as a powerful tool for designers and experimenters in evaluating interfaces” (Crowe & Narayanan, 2000, p.35).

• “Eye-movement analysis does appear to be a promising new tool for evaluating visually administered questionnaires” (Redline & Lankford, 2001).

• “Another promising area is the use of eye-tracking techniques to support interface and product design. Continual improvements in ... eye-tracking systems ... have increased the usefulness of this technique for studying a variety of interface issues” (Merwin, 2002, p.39).

Labeled as promising for 40 years Good news or bad news?

Technology Improvement

• Both good news & bad news! – Good news: it must be really promising, else it would

have been set aside

– Bad news: something is holding it back!


What had been holding the technology back? How far has the technology gone?

Will technology improvements drive new applications & opportunities?

• What was holding the technology back? – Technical Difficulties

• Ease of use

• Tolerance to variations

• Constrained head movements

• Not portable

– Labor-Intensive Data Extraction • Often requires labor-intensive frame-by-frame decoding of

videotape

– Difficulties in Data Interpretation • Making sense out of the data


• Introduction

– Brief History

– Underlying Technology

• Technology Improvements

– What was holding the technology back?

– How has it improved?

– Will it improve further?

• Future Opportunities

Outline

• How has eye tracking improved?


• Accuracy & Precision

– The difference:



– Improved over the years


Source: Tobii Accuracy and Precision Test Reports

One degree corresponds to half an inch (1.2 cm) on a computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches (68.6 cm)

Note: Measurements were done at a 25 Degree Gaze Angle where one degree corresponds to half an inch (1.2 cm) on a computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches (68.6 cm)


– How has it been improved?

• Increasing sampling rate

Modern eye trackers: 25-2000 Hz

http://www.healio.com/ophthalmology/journals/JRS/%7BB9C9AF4C-7BEC-47D2-9E2F-36D59FBD2447%7D/One-Kilohertz-Eye-Tracker-and-Active-Intraoperative-Torsion-Detection-in-the-NIDEK-CXIII-and-Quest-Excimer-Lasers http://www.journalofoptometry.org/en/analysis-of-the-effects-of/articulo/90102629/


Increasing sampling rate reduces error

http://www.healio.com/ophthalmology/journals/JRS/B9C9AF4C-7BEC-47D2-9E2F-36D59FBD2447/One-Kilohertz-Eye-Tracker-and-Active-Intraoperative-Torsion-Detection-in-the-NIDEK-CXIII-and-Quest-Excimer-Lasers









































http://www.journalofoptometry.org/en/analysis-of-the-effects-of/articulo/90102629/









• Tolerance to head movement: – Trade-off between precision/accuracy & tolerance

for head movement

– Head movement will shift distance to eye-tracker from the optimal point

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/93864026/Specification-of-Gaze-Precision-and-Gaze-Accuracy


Optimum distance

Optimum distance

Optimum distance At 50 cm Optimum distance At 50 cm














• Tolerance to head movement:

– How this has been improved while

keeping accuracy/precision constant?

• Higher resolution cameras – By increasing megapixels

• Use multiple cameras


T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010

2013

$5,000

2000s

$30,000

2010

$18,000

http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21567195-computer-interfaces-ability-determine-location-persons-gaze


• Cost

Reductions due to decrease in cost of components, which will be discussed later


















More Noise & point-of-gaze does not move smoothly

Lower Cost System Medium Cost System High Cost System

Acc

ura

cy

Cost

Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands


• Accuracy vs Cost

The image shows the left (yellow) and right (green) pupil diameter for all systems.

Lower and Medium cost system showing instability in the tracking of the pupil.

Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands

Pe

rfo

rman

ce

Cost


• Performance vs Cost

Noise

• Improvements in various aspects of the eye tracker:

– Have allowed improvements in size & intrusiveness

Raymond Dodge’s

Photochronograph

1950s

Today’s eye trackers can be non-intrusive &

relatively small


21st Century 1871 – 1942

WARNING! AUDIENCE ATTENTIVENESS LOW

What do you see?

How many noticed the gorilla at the right hand side?

What do you see?

http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=loading+animation&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=80rF-URjNJZHRM&tbnid=OwO5o1no3dIHmM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://ergaerospace.com/&ei=hUhvUdzBE8ulrQfh04GIBA&bvm=bv.45368065,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNFkOnL1s5qPWPYK7iBRxBUlXbnpFg&ust=1366333924139253

• Will Performance & Cost continue to improve?


• Interest in the field: – increase in the number of academic papers

related to the field

http://imotionsglobal.com/blog/exponential-growth-in-academic-eye-tracking-papers-over-the-last-40-years/


























Increasing number of Eye Tracking Products


Infrared capable camera

Infrared LED Mechanical Housing

Computer (processing power)

• Improvement in Components

Improvement trends in components in the field gives us confidence that this technology will continue to improve


• Improvement in Cameras

Reducing pixel-size (green square) miniaturized cameras without reducing quality



• Improvement in Cameras


Resolution increases, the price of a corresponding camera comes down more and more quickly over time


• Improvement in Computers (Processing Power)

http://homepages.cwi.nl/~steven/vandf/2012-11-teneuro.html

Improvement in integrated circuits (Moore’s Law) enhances processing power to decode the raw data obtained from eye tracking. Potential improvement gives confidence that eye-tracking will continue to improve

http://homepages.cwi.nl/~steven/vandf/computer-power1.png


• Improvement in Computers (Processing Power)

Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing. [Online]

Available from: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28

As devices shrink in size, energy consumption can be made more efficient. Allow miniaturization of eye tracking and computing devices to support it


$1000

$4000

Business Cost + R&D Cost

Hardware Cost

Kumar, M. Reducing the Cost of Eye Tracking Systems, Stanford Tech Report CSTR 2006-08, April 2006

Typical eye-tracker cost: $5000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10, 000s Units 100, 000s Units

Total Cost USD$

Hardware Cost

Business Cost + R&D Cost


Confidence that eye-tracking system will improve

A killer application is required to propel this technology!

Future Applications

Future in Retail

Future in Retail

Future in Retail

Eye Tracking Technology

Tracks customer interest

through the eyes

Interactive displays that

projects visual

information through

Augmented Reality

Opportunities

• Retail Shops – Better customer experience leads to

better sales

• Marketing Consultancy Companies – Provides solution for retailers to connect

with shoppers

– Eye Tracking collects unique information

of shoppers

• Point of display heat maps

• Items of interest to shoppers

Future in Retail

Opportunities

• Software – Provides customization service for retail business

– Offers processing software to analyze collected data

Future in Retail

ΩΩ Future in Machines

Danger of Drivers/ Machine Operators • Fatigue

• Drowsiness

• Inattentive

Severe consequence from accidents • Health, Safety and Environment • Insurance Costs • Operation downtime

Future in Machines

Offshore Drilling

Mining Machines

Monitor Fatigue and Attention Level

Future in Machines

Training Centers

• Eye Tracking to monitor and correct

Line of sight

Visual angle

Opportunities Mining and Drilling Companies • Safer work environment • Lead to less operation downtime Training Centers • Measurement of competency • Training programs for effective learning Machineries/Automobile Manufacturers • Provide customized eye trackers for new

machineries or vehicles

ΩΩ Future in Machines

ΩΩ Future in the Military

The traditional way we aim weapons has always been about Manually adjusting the weapons to our eyes

Applications:


Applications:

Soldier of the future is about automatically adjusting the weapons to the line of sight


Opportunities:

Weapon Manufacturers

• New weapon with automatic aiming can be developed • Maintenance Services Eye Trackers Manufacturers • High specification eye tracker for military use

– Accurate and precise aim – Suitable for rugged condition

Software and System Providers

• Connect eye tracker to weapons • Seamless connection between eye tracker and weapons

ΩΩ Future in HCI

Simple interaction with Google

Glass through VOICE

In the future, users will be able to retrieve information from the Glasses. If life is simple, that’s Great.

Future in HCI

But often, Life is a little more complicated. There will be an Information Overload.

How do we filter the Information that are meaningful to us?

Future in HCI

ΩΩ Future in HCI


Identifies objects of interest by

tracking the eyes

ΩΩ


Identifies objects of interest by

tracking the eyes

Information will be presented to

the user triggered by eye gaze

Future in HCI

ΩΩ


Combination with other

Interaction interfaces is possible

Voice Interaction

Sixth Sense

Future in HCI

ΩΩ Future in HCI

Opportunities:

Components Manufacturers

• Light and wearable • Miniaturization of Eye Tracker

Augmented Reality Providers

• Opportunity for user interaction with Augmented Reality • Eg. Google Glass

HCI Providers

• More holistic interaction interface • Eg. Integration with Microsoft Kinect and Leap motion control

ΩΩ Conclusions

• Technology improvement across components

• Reduction in Cost through Increasing technological efficiencies & Greater adoption

New Applications

Retail Machines Military HCI

Opportunities

Component Manufacturers Augmented Reality Providers

HCI Providers

Weapon Manufacturers Eye Tracker Manufacturers

Software Providers

Hardware Integrators

Consultancy Training Centers

Inspection and Maintenance

Retailers

Thank you!

Date post:	19-Oct-2014
Category:	Business
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