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EyeOn: years ahead! Salesfunnel Forecasting Tom Vaessen Emile van Geel 14 November 2019
EyeOn: years ahead!
Salesfunnel Forecasting
Tom Vaessen
Emile van Geel
14 November 2019
Content
• Forecasting in complex products industry
• Sales funnel explained
• Technical solution
• Application for forecasting
Challenging
Forecasting demand in project business
• For forecasting demand in project business
traditional techniques are not working
Forecasting is essential to plan scarce capacity of:
• Engineering
• Manufacturing
• Installation (incl. Field Service Engineers)
Forecasting in this environment is challenging
• Order intake very erratic
→ Forecast very difficult!
Many different cranes are being sold
Building Cranes
Building cranes is like building many different complex products
• There is a complex engineering process
• Some are quite standard, while others are innovative one-offs
• All need some engineering efforts
• Product building share part of the production recourses, while
others are unique
Long booms Magnetic lifting
Tracks Latticed construction
Long booms
Latticed construction
Long booms Tracks
Latticed construction
Engineering requiredCrane type
Using the Sales funnel
Use data from Sales for forecast input
• Sales Funnel Management
• Structured opportunity data available
• Engages Sales department
Two Major challenges:
• Many opportunities exist, not all will become sales
• Which ones will be won?
• Sales gives estimation on closing date
• When will these opportunities be won?
Creating stage
Starting out there are many opportunities
All opportunities go through ‘Creating’ stage
Opportunity not very concrete
These are plentiful
Creating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
Proposing stage
Starting out there are many prospects
In the proposing stage there is more clear
About half of the opportunities are gone
Opportunities that are left, are firming up
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
Creating
Finalizing stage
Starting out there are many prospects
For Finalizing the specifics of the crane have been
determined
Negotiations are taking placeProposing
Finalizing
Securing
Creating
Securing stage
Starting out there are many prospects
In the Securing stage much is already finalized
Payment is awaitedProposing
Finalizing
Securing
Creating
Actually Sold
Starting out there are many prospects
When the entire process is finished only a small
percent is actually sold
Difficult to estimate which ones before handProposing
Finalizing
Securing
Creating
Sold!
Probability of Winning order, per stage gate
Creating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
Sold!
7%
17%
34%
90%
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Lets zoom in on One specific opportunity
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Lets zoom in on One specific opportunity
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Lets zoom in on One specific opportunity
• They can be delayed
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Lets zoom in on One specific opportunity
• They can be delayed
• Even brought forward
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
Will it be sold, and when
Crane Sales opportunity
Second difficult aspect is timing of the opportunity
• Estimation of when it will be won is not always accurate
Outlook on opportunity changes over time
Lets zoom in on One specific opportunity
• They can be delayed
• Even brought forward
How do we deal with this for Planning?
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q4
What is required
Forecasting using sales info
Data required from the Sales funnel
• Histories of open opportunities over time• Respective ‘Stages’
• Date of Winning or losing opportunity
• Opportunity master data
What is required
Forecasting Using sales info
Probability of winning an opportunity
Timing of opportunity
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Winning opportunity and Sales Funnel stage
Creating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
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Win
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Time vs Opportunity win estimation
Winning Probability Over time, Creating
Creating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
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Time vs Opportunity win estimation
Winning Probability Over time, Proposing
Creating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
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Win
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Time vs Opportunity win estimation
Winning Probability Over time, FinalizingCreating
Proposing
Finalizing
Securing
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Win
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Time vs Opportunity win estimation
Winning Probability Over time, Securing
Additional features
Forecasting using sales info
Data required from the Sales funnel
• Histories of open opportunities over time
• Data quantity in test case• 2 years history• 250 won opportunities per year
• Features• Opportunity type: crane with ‘Long Boom’ or ‘Tracks’• Big versus Small opportunity• Regional differences• Customer type• Etc.
Example
Building up the forecast
3 Opportunities
• 100K, Securing, Expected 1-5-2020
• 500K, Finalizing, Expected 1-2-2020
• 200K, Proposing, Expected 1-12-2019
The results
Delivering a high quality forecast
Using the information about the sales funnel has
given some remarkable results. In general the
forecast accuracy based on only:
• The account managers input is 35%
• Applying basic statistics (time series) is 50%
• Adding adapted funnel information to it is 65%
Conclusion
• Sales funnel forecast
From very low forecast accuracy to significant higher forecast accuracy
Use knowledge from Sales community
By applying data analytics to find
- The win probability
- The timing behavior
EyeOn. years ahead
Let’s invest in the future together
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Tom VaessenT: +31 (6)19 81 60 55
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