F. No. 3-1/ 2016-17-CFCC-E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE

(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 344-A, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi

Dated: 17.06.2016

SUBJECT: WEEKLY STATUS REPORT ON CROP PROSPECTS

The Weekly Status Report on Crop Prospects as reported in the Crop Weather Watch Group meeting

held on 17th

June, 2016 under the Chairmanship of Agricultural Commissioner, DAC&FW, is enclosed

herewith. All concerned Departments/Divisions are requested to take appropriate action on issues/decision

concerning them.

A copy is also placed on website http://agricoop.nic.in/weather.aspx for ready reference.

Enclosure: As above

(Rahul Sharma)

Dy. Stat. Adviser 1. Cabinet Secretary

2. Secretary, Dept. of Agriculture, Cooperation & FW

3. Secretary, Dept. of Consumer Affairs

4. Secretary, (Food & Public Distribution)

5. Secretary, (RD)

6. Secretary, Dept. of Animal Husbandry and Dairying

7. Secretary, (DARE)

8. Secretary, Dept. of Expenditure, Min. of Finance

9. CEO, Niti Aayog

10. Pr. Adviser, Deptt. of Agriculture & Cooperation

11. Chief Executive Officer, NRAA

12. Special Secretary (AKS)

13. Additional Secretary (AD)

14. Additional Secretary (JS)

15. Additional Secretary (RS)

16. Additional Secretary &FA, DAC & FW

17. Economics & Statistical Adviser, DES

18. Member Secretary, CACP

19. Agriculture Commissioner

20. Horticulture Commissioner

21. Commissioner (Water Resources)

22. Joint Secretary (NFSM, IT, Extn. SDRF, NDRF), DAC

23. Joint Secretary (INM and M&T), DAC

24. Joint Secretary (GC & PC), DAC

25. Joint Secretary (Marketing)

26. Joint Secretary (Trade, Crop), DAC

27. Joint Secretary (DM, PP), DAC

28. Joint Secretary (Seeds, IC & Admn.), DAC

29. Joint Secretary (NRM, RFS, NMSA, NABM), DAC

30. Joint Secretary (NHM, MIDH), DAC

31. Joint Secretary (Credit & Coop), DAC

32. DDG (ICAR)

33. DG, (IMD)

34. Adviser (RL), DES

35. Adviser (PCB), DES

36. Adviser (SKM), DES

37. Adviser (AB), DES

38. AEA. (Prices), DES

39. Adviser (AS), DES

For restricted use

WEEKLY STATUS REPORT

ON

CROP PROSPECTS

(As reported in the CWWG meeting held on 17th

June, 2016)

CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE

Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare

Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare

CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTER

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE

Subject: Salient aspects of the meeting of weekly Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) held on

17.06.2016 – observations, recommendations and actions.

The weekly meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 17.06.2016 under the

Chairmanship of Agricultural Commissioner, DAC&FW. The agenda included discussion on weather

conditions, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, prices and procurement position.

Salient aspects covered in the meeting are given from page 3 onwards.

Summary observations of the Group on Agenda Items

Details of the mean maximum and minimum temperature during the week 09th

June, 2016 to 15th

June, 2016 were as under:-

Maximum Temperature

Above normal by 2 to 40C over many parts of East Rajasthan, Jharkhand, some parts of

Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Saurashtra, Madhya Maharashtra and isolated pockets

of Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Gujarat Region, Konkan, Gangetic West Bengal and

Odisha.

It was normal to near normal over rest of the country except some parts of North Interior

Karnataka, Rayalaseema and isolated pockets of Telangana and South Interior Karnataka,

where it was below normal by 2 to 40C.

Minimum Temperature

Above normal by 2 to 40C over many parts of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, some parts of East

Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat and isolated pockets of East Uttar Pradesh, West

Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Marathwada and Vidarbha.

It was normal to near normal over rest of the country except some parts of Jammu & Kashmir,

Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and isolated pockets of South Interior Karnataka, Telangana

where it was below normal by 2 to 40C.

In the monsoon season, weekly Rainfall for the country as a whole during the week 09th

June,

2016 to 15th

June, 2016 was 29% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall (% departure

from LPA) in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period was

lower by 54% in Central India, 26% in North West India, 21% in East & North East India and

10% in South Peninsula.

The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season i.e. 01st June, 2016 to 15

th June,

2016 was 25% lower than Long Period Average (LPA). Rainfall (% departure from LPA) in the four

broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period was higher than 18% in South

Peninsula and lower by 43% in Central India, 35% in East & North East India, 33% in North West

India.

Out of 36 met sub-divisions, 16 met sub-divisions constituting 33% of the total area of the country

has received excess/normal rainfall, 20 met sub-divisions constituting 67% of the total area of the

country has received deficient/scanty rainfall.

Central Water Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live

capacity of 157.80 BCM at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Current live storage in these reservoirs as

on 16th

June, 2016 was 23.79 BCM as against 41.86 BCM on 16.06.2015 (last year) and 29.92 BCM

of Normal (average storage of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 57% of the last

year’s storage and 80% of the normal storage.

As per latest information available on sowing of Kharif crops, around 7.9% of the normal area

under Kharif crops has been sown upto 17.06.2016. Area sown under all Kharif crops taken

together has been reported to be 84.21 lakh hectares at All India level as compared to 93.63 lakh

hectares in the corresponding period of last year.

The All Commodities inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point

basis for the month of May, 2016, increased to 0.79% from the level of 0.34 in the month of April,

2016. The inflation rate was (-) 2.20% during the corresponding period of last year.

The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point

basis for the month of May, 2016, increased to 4.55% from the level of 2.34% in the month of

April, 2016. The inflation rate was (-) 1.05% during the corresponding period of last year.

The inflation for non-food items has decreased to 4.48% from the previous month’s level of

7.12% and for the food items has increased to 7.88% from the previous month’s level of 4.23%.

Among the foodgrains, the inflation for Cereals has increased to 4.60% from the previous month’s

level of 2.64%, Rice to 2.22% from the previous month’s level of 0.47% and Wheat 3.85% from the

previous month’s level of 2.22. The inflation for Pulses has decreased to 35.56% from the previous

month’s level of 36.36%.

All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 17.06.2016 for the marketing season 2015-16

was 338.35 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 301.57 lakh tonnes upto the corresponding

period of last year.

All-India progressive procurement of Wheat as on 17.06.2016 for the marketing season 2016-17

was 229.30 lakh tonnes against the procurement of 276.84 lakh tonnes upto the corresponding

period of last year.

Availability position of seeds and fertilizers has been found satisfactory.

1. Monsoon Season (June – September) during the week ending on 15th June, 2016

Sub-division-wise daily distribution of rainfall and maximum/minimum temperature are shown in

Table-1.1

Rainfall during the week (09th

June, 2016 to 15th

June, 2016) Rainfall was excess/normal in 15,

deficient/scanty in 21 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall

distribution is given in Annex I).

Cumulative rainfall (01st June, 2016 to 15

th June, 2016) Rainfall was excess/normal in 16,

deficient/scanty in 20 out of 36 meteorological sub-division. (The sub-division-wise seasonal

rainfall distribution is given in Annex II).

Table - 1.2: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country1

E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, S: Scanty, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table - 1.3: Category wise comparative distribution of Sub-division (cumulative rainfall) and All-India

Percentage Rainfall Departure for the last five years since: 1st June to

Source: IMD

1. North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep. North-east India - Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Andaman and

Nicobar Islands.

Region Week Ending (15.06.2016) Cumulative (01.06.16 to 15.06.16)

(in mm) Devi-

ation

(%)

Cat.

(in mm) Devi-

ation

(%)

Cate-

gory Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West India 9.7 13.0 -26 D 15.0 22.5 -33 D

Central India 13.2 28.9 -54 D 28.0 48.8 -43 D

South Peninsular India 31.3 34.9 -10 N 83.0 70.5 18 E

East & North-East India 64.2 81.4 -21 D 99.4 151.8 -35 D

Country as a whole 23.8 33.6 -29 D 46.2 61.4 -25 D

No. of Sub-Divisions with

rainfall

For the period from 1st June to

15 JUN

2011

13 JUN

2012

12 JUN

2013

18 JUN

2014

17 JUN

2015

15 JUN

2016

Excess

Normal

Total

15

10

25

01

05

06

25

05

30

01

07

08

16

08

24

06

10

16

Deficient

Scanty

No rain

Total

09

02

00

11

11

19

00

30

03

03

00

06

18

10

00

28

08

04

00

12

14

06

00

20

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India %

Rainfall Deviation

3% (-) 42% 23% (-) 45% 11% (-) 25%

Table: 1.1

2. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 16.06.2016)

The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 91 important/major reservoirs,

having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is

about 62% of total reservoir capacity in the country.

Water stock in 91 major reservoirs decreased to 23.79 BCM from the previous week’s level

of 24.48 BCM. Current storage is lower than the last year’s position of 41.86 BCM and the

average of last 10 year’s storage of 29.92 BCM.

Table – 2.1 : For 91 major reservoirs of the country

Period Current Year’s

Storage as %

of FRL*

Current Year’s

storage as % of

last year

Current year as a % of 10

years average level

Current Week

Last Week

15

16

57

57

80

78

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 27% on 09/06/2015, 26% on 16/06/2014,

20% on 16/06/2013 and 18% on 16/06/2012.

* Live storage as % to Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 157.80 Billion Cub. Mts.(BCM)

Source: CWC

There were 37 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 10 reservoirs having storage between 50% to

80% of Normal Storage, 16 reservoir having storage between 30% to 50%, 28 reservoir having storage

upto 30% of Normal Storage and 08 reservoir having no live storage.

Source: Central Water Commission

* The State wise details (reservoir position) are given in the Annex III.

3. Fertilizer Position:

Table – 3.1: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea,

DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP during Kharif 2015-16 (As on 16.06.2016)

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

Availability / Sale / Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2016 932 376 150 530 123

Requirement for Kharif, 2015-16 14739 5082 1742 5368 3060

Requirement upto June, 2016 2771 1149 365 1111 672

Availability upto 16.06.2016 5908 1853 494 1886 625

Sales upto 16.06.2016 3353 786 244 780 251

Closing Stock upto 16.06.2016 2555 1067 250 1106 374

` Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC) / Deptt. of Fertilizer

4. Pest & Diseases:

Incidence of white fly, aphids, Fruit & shoot borer & wilt on brinjal crop has also been reported in low to moderate

intensity in 24-Parganas (S) & Hooghly districts of West Bengal.

Incidence of white fly, fruit borer, leaf curl virus & wilt on tomato crop has also been reported in low to moderate

intensity in 24-Parganas (S) & Hooghly districts of West Bengal.

Incidence of white fly, fruit borer, leaf curl virus and fungal wilt disease on chilly crop has also been reported in low to

moderate intensity in 24-Parganas (S) & Hooghly districts of West Bengal.

Incidence of red spider mites, red pumpkin beetle & Fruit rot on cucurbits crop has also been reported in low to

moderate intensity in 24-Parganas (S) & Hooghly districts of West Bengal.

Incidence of white fly on okra crop has also been reported in low to moderate intensity in 24-Parganas (S) district of

West Bengal.

Incidence of grass hopper on rice crop has also been reported in low to moderate intensity in Birbhum district of West

Bengal.

Incidence of Bihar hairy caterpillar on Jute crop has also been reported in low to moderate intensity in 24-Parganas (S)

district of West Bengal.

Incidence of white fly on cauliflower crop has been reported in low to moderate intensity in Nagpur district of

Maharashtra.

No shortage of Chemical / Bio-pesticides was reported from any State / UT.

5: Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table: 5.1

Inflation (year on year)

Period / commodities Weight May 2016 April 2016 May 2015

All Commodities 100 0.79 0.34 -2.20

Primary Articles 20.12 4.55 2.34 -1.05

(a) Food Articles 14.34 7.88 4.23 2.74

Cereals 3.37 4.60 2.64 0.04

Rice 1.79 2.22 0.47 -1.43

Wheat 1.12 3.85 2.22 2.60

Pulses 0.72 35.56 36.36 23.10

Gram 0.33 35.71 38.0 21.44

Arhar 0.13 41.16 45.38 29.93

Moong 0.08 7.05 9.00 13.32

Masur 0.05 15.35 15.68 24.60

Urad 0.10 64.92 59.01 29.23

Vegetables 1.74 12.94 2.21 -4.99

Potato 0.20 60.01 35.45 -50.71

Onion 0.18 -21.70 -18.18 22.15

Fruits 2.11 3.80 -2.38 6.69

Milk 3.24 2.36 2.83 6.89

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.41 9.75 3.34 -4.04

(b) Non-Food Articles 4.26 4.48 7.12 -0.96

Oilseeds 1.78 2.73 5.68 -0.64

Fuel & Power 14.91 -6.14 -4.83 -9.43

6. All India Crop Situations

Table: 6.1

7. Progressive procurement of Rice as on 17.06.2016 (lakh tonnes)

Table: 7.1

8. Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 17.06.2016 (lakh tonnes)

Table: 8.1

State Total procurement in

marketing season

2014-15 (Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on

17.06.2016

In Marketing

season 2015-

2016

In Marketing

season 2014-

2015

Andhra Pradesh 35.96 42.98 34.15

Telangana 35.04 15.77 31.77

Bihar 16.14 12.25 16.14

Chhattisgarh 34.23 34.42 33.55

Haryana 20.15 28.61 20.15

Kerala 3.74 3.82 3.74

Madhya Pradesh 8.07 8.49 8.07

Maharashtra 1.99 2.14 1.69

Odisha 33.57 31.78 26.53

Punjab 77.86 93.50 77.86

Tamil Nadu 10.51 10.82 9.27

Uttar Pradesh 16.98 29.10 16.60

Uttrakhand 4.65 5.97 4.65

West Bengal 20.32 15.62 16.31

All-India 320.40 338.35 301.57

State Total procurement in

marketing season

2015-16 (April –

March)

Progressive Procurement as on

17.06.2016

In Marketing

season 2016-

2017

In Marketing

season 2015-

2016

Punjab 103.44 106.45 103.46

Haryana 67.78 67.22 66.92

Uttar Pradesh 22.67 8.02 20.77

Madhya Pradesh 73.09 39.90 71.95

Rajasthan 13.00 7.62 12.89

Chandigarh 0.11 0.07 0.11

Gujarat 0.73 0.00 0.69

All-India 280.88 229.30 276.84