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Table of Contents Forecast Highlights (2017–2037) ................................................................................................ 1
Review of 2016 ........................................................................................................................... 3
Glossary of Acronyms ................................................................................................................. 4
Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 5
FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 6
Economic Environment ........................................................................................................... 7
U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9
Domestic Market ................................................................................................................. 9
International Market ...........................................................................................................15
Cargo .................................................................................................................................19
General Aviation ....................................................................................................................21
FAA Operations .....................................................................................................................26
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28
Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30
Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30
Commercial Small UAS Forecast .......................................................................................31
Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................33
Forecast Uncertainties ...........................................................................................................35
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................ 39
Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................39
Alternative Forecasts .............................................................................................................43
Enplanements ....................................................................................................................43
Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................44
Available Seat Miles ...........................................................................................................44
Load Factor .......................................................................................................................45
Yield ..................................................................................................................................46
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy ....................................................................................... 51
Appendix C: Forecast Tables ................................................................................................... 53
1
Forecast Highlights (2017–2037)
Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was associated with these cy-cles was thought by many to be a structural feature of an industry that was capital inten-sive but cash poor. However the great re-cession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Since the recession, U.S. air-lines have fine-tuned their business models to minimize losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with three major mergers in five years. These changes along with ca-pacity discipline exhibited by carriers have resulted in a seventh consecutive year of profitability for the industry in 2016. Looking ahead there is confidence that the industry has been transformed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.
Fundamentally, over the medium and long term, demand for aviation is driven by eco-nomic activity, and a growing U.S. and world economy provides the basis for avia-tion to grow over the long run. The 2017 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passen-ger growth over the next 20 years to aver-age 1.9 percent per year, slightly slower than last year’s forecast. The sharp decline in the price of oil in 2015-16 was a catalyst for an uptick in passenger growth in 2016 that will continue into 2017. The price of oil
is projected to rise from around $39 per bar-rel in 2016 to $47 in 2017, and our forecast assumes that it will rise thereafter to exceed $100 by 2026 and approach $132 by the end of the forecast period. There are a number of headwinds that are buffeting the global economy – uncertainty surrounding “Brexit”, recession in Russia and Brazil and inconsistent performance in other emerging economies, a “hard landing” in China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies. Although the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession, there is uncertainty regarding the impact of the new U.S. administration’s policies on economic growth.
System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.4 per-cent a year between 2017 and 2037. Do-mestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.0 per-cent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow significantly faster at 3.4 percent a year. U.S. carrier system capaci-ty measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is getting bigger, especially in the regional jet market, where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.
Although the U.S. and global economy con-tinued post disappointing growth in 2016, a combination of robust demand and contin-ued low energy prices resulted in record profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profita-bility may fall in the near term as rising en-ergy prices and higher labor costs offset higher revenues fed by solid demand. Over the long term, we see a competitive and
2
profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. and glob-al economy.
The long term outlook for general aviation is stable to optimistic, as growth at the high end offsets continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment. The ac-tive general aviation fleet is forecast to in-crease 0.1 percent a year between 2016 and 2037, resulting in an increase in the fleet of about 3,400 units. While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft contin-ues to shrink over the forecast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the number of gen-eral aviation hours flown is projected to in-crease an average of 0.9 percent per year
through 2037, as growth in turbine, ro-torcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing piston hours.
With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating opera-tions in their large hubs, we expect in-creased activity growth which has the po-tential to increase controller workload. Op-erations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to increase 0.8 percent a year over the forecast period with commercial activity growing at five times the rate of non-commercial activity. The growth in U.S. air-line and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the com-mercial nature of their operations.
3
Review of 2016
Despite slow economic growth at home and abroad, 2016 was a pretty good year for U.S. aviation. A combination of robust do-mestic traffic and falling costs offset a de-cline in revenue caused by lower yields re-sulting in record profits for the U.S. airline industry. The shift in focus from market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in something the industry has rarely seen – sustained profitability. The U.S. airline industry has become more nim-ble in adjusting capacity to seize opportuni-ties or minimize losses. U.S. airlines contin-ue to refine strategies for developing addi-tional revenue streams such as charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for charging for services that were not previ-ously available (e.g. premium boarding and fare lock fees). The impact from these initi-atives is evident as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits for the seventh consecutive year in 2016, despite falling yields.
Demand for air travel in 2016 grew at the fastest pace since 2005 despite modest economic growth in the U.S. In 2016 sys-tem revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in-creased 4.3 percent while enplanements grew 4.2 percent. Domestic RPMs were up 5.5 percent while enplanements were up by 4.3 percent. International RPMs increased by just 1.5 percent despite enplanements growing by 3.6 percent. The system-wide load factor rose 0.2 points to 83.5 percent.
Yields fell for the second consecutive year. In domestic markets, falling oil prices and rapid expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 4.7 per-
cent decline. International yield fell 9.0 per-cent, impacted by weak demand and cur-rency fluctuations. Despite falling yields U.S. airlines posted record profits in FY 2016 as energy prices continued to decline, allowing profits at lower prices. Data for FY 2016 show that the reporting passenger car-riers had a combined operating profit of $26.6 billion (compared to a $24.1 billion operating profit for FY 2015). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $19.1 billion while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $6.7 billion as all carriers posted profits.
The general aviation industry recorded a small decline in deliveries in 2016, with only the business jet segment seeing a year over year increase. Overall deliveries were down by 4.2 percent in calendar year (CY) 2016; and U.S. billings decreased 11.7 percent to $10.6 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 0.2 percent decline in 2016 as local activity fell 0.5 percent, more than offsetting a 0.1 percent increase in itinerant operations.
In 2016 total operations at all 517 FAA and contract towers rose for the second consec-utive year, up 0.5 percent, compared to 2015. This marks the first time since FY 1999-2000 that operations at FAA and funded towers have increased for two con-secutive years. Air carrier activity increased by 4.8 percent, more than offsetting de-clines in the air taxi, general aviation, and military categories. Activity at large hubs rose by 1.6 percent, while medium hub ac-tivity increased by 2.8 percent. Small/non-hub airport activity was down 0.4 percent in 2016 compared to the prior year.
4
Glossary of Acronyms
Acronym Term ASMs Available Seat Miles ATP Air Transport Pilot AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight CFR Code of Federal Regulations CY Calendar Year FAA Federal Aviation Administration FY Fiscal Year GA General Aviation GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association GDP Gross Domestic Product ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IFR Instrument Flight Rules LSA Light Sport Aircraft NAS National Airspace System NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost RP Remote Pilot RPA Remote Pilot Authorization RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles RTMs Revenue Ton Miles sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s) TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control TRB Transportation Research Board UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s) USD United States Dollar VFR Visual Flight Rules
5
Acknowledgements
This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.
The following people may be contacted for further information:
Section Contact Name Phone Number Economic Environment Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Commercial Air Carriers
• Passenger Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Li Ding (202) 267-1846
• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309 General Aviation
• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 • Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070
FAA Workload Measures
• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 • Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306
Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641
Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027 APO Websites
• Forecasts and statistical publications
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/
• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov
Email for APO staff First name.last [email protected]
6
FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2017-2037
7
Economic Environment
In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects that world economic growth will pick up from its 2016 low of 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018. Growth is forecast to accelerate in the United States as the new U.S. administration puts a stimu-lus package in place while Europe remains sluggish as the impact from Brexit and polit-ical uncertainty hamper growth. Japan’s economic growth is projected to be slow
and steady, helped by a weaker yen. In emerging markets, China’s growth contin-ues to slow while others such as Brazil and Russia return to positive growth and see an acceleration helped by rising commodity prices and increased demand for exports. In 2016 real GDP in India grew 6.9%, down from 7.5% in 2015, but is projected in 2017-18 to return to levels close to the 2015 rate.
IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. Emerging markets are forecast to grow above the global average but at lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India and China, is projected to have the fastest growth fol-lowed by Middle East and Africa, Latin
America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in the more mature economies will be lower than the global trend with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Ja-pan is projected to be very slow with rates below 1% a year reflecting deep structural issues associated with a shrinking and ag-ing population.
6.9 6.7
1.7 1.6 1.0
-0.6
-3.6
2.4
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
India and China led World Economic Growth in 2016
India China Eurozone U.S. Japan Russia Brazil World
Source: IHS Global Insight
8
Oil prices fell by 31% in 2016 to around $39 per barrel bringing the cumulative decline between 2013 and 2016 to 61%. However 2016 marks the bottom of the latest cycle and IHS Global Insight is projecting oil pric-es in 2017 to increase by about 20% to $47
per barrel. Over the long run, oil prices are projected to increase due to growing de-mand and higher costs of extraction. IHS Global Insight forecasts the price of oil to reach $101 per barrel by 2026 and continue to rise modestly thereafter to $131 by 2037.
0.8
1.4
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.6
4.9
Japan
Eurozone
U.S.
Emerging Europe
World
Latin America
Asia ex China
M.E. & Africa
China
Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth
Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2016 World Forecast
Annual GDP % growth 2017-2037
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
$ Pe
r Bar
rel o
f Oil
Fiscal Year
U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost
Source: IHS Global Insight
9
U.S. Airlines
Domestic Market
Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domes-tic and international passenger service be-tween the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international ser-vice is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.
Shaping today’s commercial air carrier in-dustry are three distinct trends: (1) industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) contin-ued capacity discipline in response to exter-nal shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancil-lary revenues.
The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry that began in the after-math of the 2007-09 recession continued in 2016. In October 2015, the last U.S. Air-ways flight occurred marking the finalization of the American/US Airways merger and in April 2016, Alaska Airlines announced its intention to merge with Virgin America to create the nation’s 5th largest airline. As a result, there are now six airlines in the U.S. – American, Delta, Southwest, United, Alas-ka/Virgin, and Jet Blue – controlling approx-imately 85% of the domestic market as measured by revenue passenger miles.
1 Mainline carriers are defined as those provid-ing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more seats. Regionals are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the mainline carriers.
Further consolidation is unlikely. In 2005 there were twelve major mainline airlines.2
The mergers and increasing market pres-ence of low cost carriers like Frontier, Jet-Blue and Southwest have had clear implica-tions on the fares, size of the aircraft being used and the load factors, topics that will be discussed later in this document.
One of the most striking outcomes of indus-try restructuring has been the unprecedent-ed period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. Since 2009, U.S. domestic ASMs have increased at an aver-age rate of 2.0% per year. U.S. domestic ASMs are up just 4.1 percent when com-pared to 2007 as the industry responded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and then the glob-al recession that followed (2009 to the pre-sent).
The period of domestic capacity restraint since 2007 has not been shared equally be-
2 A major carrier is defined as an air carrier with annual operating revenues exceeding $1 billion
10
tween the mainline carriers and their re-gional counterparts. In 2016, the mainline carrier group provided 5 percent more ca-pacity than it did in 2007 while carrying 8 percent more passengers. Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 2.6 percent over the same period (with passen-gers carried down 3 percent).
The regional market has continued to shrink as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carri-ers; this has meant slow growth in en-planements and yields.
575 589 639 676 721 770 825
152 152 165 175
186 198
212
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Enpl
anem
ents
(mill
ions
)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group
Mainline Regional
11
The regionals have less leverage with the mainline carriers than they have had in the past as the mainline carriers have negotiat-ed contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing pilot shortages and tighter regulations re-garding pilot training. Their labor costs are increasing as they raise wages to combat the pilot shortage while their capital costs have increased in the short-term as they continue to replace their 50 seat regional jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. The move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future, however, since their unit costs are lower.
Another continuing trend is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary reve-
nues by selling products and services be-yond that of an airplane ticket to customers. This includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price such as checked bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority and internet access. As noted earli-er, U.S. passenger carriers posted record net profits for the seventh consecutive year in 2016 with ancillary revenues a contrib-uting factor to the favorable outcome as well as very low oil prices. Airlines are also moving ahead with plans to further segment their passengers into more discreet cost categories based on comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and outlets. Delta introduced “Basic Economy” fares in 2015 and expanded the number of markets throughout 2016. United
14.0 14.0 15.6
17.3 18.7
20.1 21.6
11.4 11.5 12.8
14.2 15.4
16.5 17.7
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2016E 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Rev
enue
Per
Mile
(¢)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield
Mainline Regionals
12
introduced its version of Basic Economy fares in November 2016 and American is planning to introduce its version in the first quarter of calendar year 2017.
U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of domestic departures rose in 2016 for the first time since 2007, but still remain 17.3 percent below the 2007 level. ASMs, RPMs and enplanements all showed a rebound; these trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and higher load factors.3 In 2016, the domestic load factor reached a historic high of 84.7 percent for commercial air car-riers. It is presently assumed that the load factor will not exceed 86.5 percent in the future due to the logistical difficulties inher-ent in matching supply perfectly with de-mand.
3 Commercial air carriers encompass both main-line and regional carriers.
13
System, that is, the sum of domestic plus international capacity, increased 4.2 percent to 1.112 trillion ASMs in 2016 while RPMs increased 4.3 percent to 928 billion. During the same period system-wide enplanements increased 4.2 percent to 819.6 million. In 2016, U.S. carriers continued to prioritize the domestic over the international market in terms of allocating capacity as domestic capacity increased 5.3 percent while inter-national capacity was up just 1.6 percent. U.S. carriers domestic capacity growth will exceed their international capacity growth in 2017 but carriers will start expanding capac-ity in international markets faster than do-mestic markets beginning in 2018 and this trend is projected to continue through 2037 as the domestic market continues to ma-ture.
U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in the combined domestic and international market was 5.4 percent in 2016 while re-gional carriers carried 0.6 percent fewer passengers.
In the domestic market, mainline enplane-ments increased for the sixth consecutive year, up 5.8 percent, marking the first time since 2000 that the industry recorded six consecutive years of passenger growth in the domestic market. Mainline passengers in international markets posted a seventh year of growth, up 3.1 percent.
With relatively robust demand, industry ca-pacity growth was up 4.2 percent after a 3.9 percent increase in 2015. Solid increases in passenger volume and traffic offset lower yields and along with higher ancillary reve-
84.0
84.5
85.0
85.5
86.0
86.5
87.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Load
Fac
tor
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Market
ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor
14
nues and falling fuel prices resulted in U.S. carriers finishing up 2016 with record profits.
System load factor increased 0.1 points while trip length increased 1.2 miles (0.1 percent) in 2016, even as seats per aircraft mile increased by 1.6 percent; again reflect-
ing the trend towards using larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system wide in-creased to 151.3 seats (up 2.3 seats per aircraft mile), the highest level since 1992.
15
International Market
Over the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic market. Since 2015 growth in the domestic market has outpaced inter-national markets and 2017 is expected to follow suit as airlines continue to focus on the domestic market. Starting in 2018 the international market (comprised of mainline and regional carriers) should again start outpacing the domestic market in terms of enplanements, RPMs and ASMs at average
annual rates (FY 2018-2037) of 3.4, 3.3, and 3.3 percent, respectively.
The weakness in international demand over the past few years is mainly due to weak worldwide economic growth. The near term outlook remains uncertain as oil prices are moving up, the impact of Brexit is unclear, growth in world trade is still weaker than before the Global Financial Crisis, and se-curity concerns continue to loom over the world as a threat to international tourism.
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Carriers - Enplanements
Domestic Market International Market
16
The next five years will feature a rebuilding of international demand by the U.S. carriers with moderate growth averaging around 3.5, 3.5, and 3.4 percent a year for enplane-ments, RPMs, and ASMs respectively. Air-
lines will exercise capacity restraint and the load factor is expected to stabilize around 81.3%. Load factors this high were last seen in 2014.
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Carriers - RPMs
Domestic Market International Market
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Carriers - ASMs
Domestic International
17
For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the largest international destination despite the recent economic and political crises of Bra-zil. Enplanements in 2016 grew an estimat-ed 5.9% while RPMs increased 4.7%. Growth is projected to slow in 2017 as U.S. carriers trim capacity growth to help stabi-lize yields. Enplanements and RPMs are forecast to increase 1.6 and 1.2 percent, respectively, in 2017. Over the twenty year period 2017-2037, Latin America enplane-ments are forecast to increase at an aver-age rate of 4.1% a year while RPMs grow 4.4% a year.
Despite the economic growth and potential of air travel to China and India, the Pacific region remains a relatively small market for the U.S. and will remain so for the next twenty years. In 2016, U.S. carriers saw en-planements increase 0.6% over their 2015 levels while traffic (RPMs) increased by 2.5
percent. Between 2017 and 2037, U.S. car-rier enplanements and RPMs are forecast to grow 2.5 and 2.6 percent a year, respective-ly.
In 2016, the Atlantic region saw a drop in enplanements of 1.0% while RPMs fell 2.1% as concerns about Brexit and a weak Euro-pean economy kept demand in check. U.S. carriers have dialed back on capacity growth in 2017 as demand continues to be weak amid uncertainty associated with Brexit and European elections. As a result, enplanement and RPM growth will hover around 0% (-0.3% and 0.1%, respectively). The Atlantic is a mature region and over the twenty year period 2017-2037, enplane-ments in the Atlantic region (including the Middle East and Africa) are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% a year while RPMs grow 3% a year.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2016E 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers International Market
ASMs RPMs Enplanements
18
Total passengers (including Foreign Flag carriers) between the United States and the rest of the world increased an estimated 5.3% in 2016 (218.5 million) as all regions posted gains led by an 8.4% increase in the Pacific region.
FAA projects total passenger growth of 4.7% in 2017 as global economic growth accelerates with the highest growth ex-pected in the Latin region. Stable global economic growth (2.8% a year) over the next 20 years (2017-2037) is the foundation for the forecast growth of international pas-sengers of 3.6% a year, as levels more than double from 229 million to 467 million.
The Latin American region is the largest in-ternational market and is projected to grow
at the fastest rate (3.9% a year) of any re-gion over the next 20 years. Within the re-gion, Mexico and Brazil are the two largest markets and are expected to remain so over the forecast period.
Powered by the economic growth and po-tential of air travel to China and India, total passengers in the Pacific region are fore-cast to double to 85 million by 2037. From 2017 to 2037, passengers between the United States and the Pacific region are forecast to grow 3.8 percent a year.
Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are more mature markets and are projected to have somewhat slower growth than the Lat-in or Pacific regions. The Atlantic region is forecast to grow at an average rate of 3.4%
73 77 89 103 117 132 149 79 83
92 108
127 149
177
39 41 48
57 66
76
85
27 28 33
38
43
49
56
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Mill
ions
of P
asse
nger
s
Calendar Year
Total Passengers To/From the U.S. American and Foreign Flag Carriers
Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada TransborderSource: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada * Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.
19
a year as an increasing share of the pas-sengers in this region come from the Middle East and Africa markets. The Canadian transborder market is the smallest market in
terms of passenger volumes and is forecast to grow 3.5% a year.
Cargo
Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Car-go carriers face price competition from al-ternative shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.
U.S. air carriers flew 35.5 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2016, down 0.9 percent from 2015 with domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increasing 1.8 percent to 13.3 billion while international RTMs fell 2.4 per-cent to 22.2 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 77.6 percent of total RTMs in 2016, with passenger carri-ers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers decreased 0.4 per-cent in 2016 while total RTMs flown by pas-senger carriers declined by 2.6 percent.
U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four regions consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other Interna-tional.’ In 2016 total international RTMs de-creased 2.4 percent to 22.2, with all regions posting declines.
Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo
security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic express market, a shift from air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services).
The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of the shift from air to ground transportation has oc-curred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to economic growth.
The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the prima-ry driver. Projections of international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in industry structure, and market assumptions.
After decreasing by 0.9 percent in 2016, total RTMs are forecast to grow 1.4 percent in 2017. Driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent for the balance of the forecast peri-od.
20
Following a 1.8 percent increase in 2016, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.7 percent in 2017 as the U.S. economic recovery continues. Between 2016 and 2037, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent. In 2016, all-cargo carriers carried 89.0 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.5 percent by 2037 based on increases in ca-pacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing se-curity considerations.
International cargo RTMs fell 2.4 percent in 2016 after posting a 0.9 percent increase in 2015 as slow growth in the U.S. and Europe along with the slowdown in China’s eco-nomic growth slowed worldwide trade. Growth is expected to turn positive in 2017
to 1.3 percent as global trade growth re-sumes. For the forecast period (2016-37) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 3.8 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP with the Pacific region having the fastest growth, followed by the Other International, Atlantic, and Latin regions, respectively.
The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 70.8 percent in 2016. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to in-crease modestly to 77.1 percent by 2037.
21
General Aviation
The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization rates from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new air-craft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), together with assumptions of re-tirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet by aircraft categories, which are ap-plied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are carried out for “active air-craft,”4 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at indus-try meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted annually in May and January.
The results of the 2015 GA Survey, the lat-est available, were consistent with the re-sults of surveys conducted since 2004 im-provements to the survey methodology. The GA fleet was in decline between 2007 and 2013, especially between 2011 and 2013, primarily due to the impact of the 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Registration, which removed can-celled, expired or revoked records from the Registry. In 2014, the GA fleet recorded its first increase since 2008, and the 2015 Sur-vey results showed an increase for the sec-ond consecutive year. The active GA fleet was estimated as 210,031 aircraft in 2015
4 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.
(up 2.8 percent from 2014), with 24.1 million hours flown (up 3.7 percent from 2014).
In 2016, gradual decline in deliveries of the general aviation industry continued from the previous year. While the business jet deliv-eries by U.S. manufacturers continued their modest increase by 1.8 percent compared to the previous year, turboprop deliveries were down by 2.1 percent, single engine piston deliveries declined by 7.4 percent, and much smaller category of multi-engine piston deliveries declined 23.3 percent. Based on figures released by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,525 aircraft in CY 2016, 4.2 per-cent fewer than CY 2015. This was the second year of declines since 2011. Overall piston deliveries were down 8.3 percent in 2016. In the turbine categories, total ship-ments went down by 0.2 percent.
22
GAMA and industry experts also reported continuing decreases in rotorcraft deliveries in 2016, particularly resulting from direct and indirect effects of oil price declines.
Against these current conditions, the long term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains stable to favorable. The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average an-nual rate of 0.1 percent over the 21-year forecast period, as increases in the turbine, experimental, and light sport fleets offset declines in the fixed wing piston fleet. The total active general aviation fleet increases from an estimated 209,905 in 2016 to 213,420 aircraft by 2037.
The more expensive and sophisticated tur-bine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow by 14,700 aircraft -- an average rate of 1.9 percent a year over the forecast period, with the turbojet fleet in-creasing 2.3 percent a year. The growth in U.S. GDP and corporate profits are cata-lysts for the growth in the turbine fleet.
The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft is predicted to shrink over the forecast period by 22,500 aircraft (at an av-erage annual rate of -0.8 percent). Unfa-vorable pilot demographics, overall increas-ing cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Billings ($B) Shipments
Calendar Year
General Aviation U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings
Shipments Billings ($ Billion)Source: GAMA
23
On the other hand, the smallest category, light-sport-aircraft, (created in 2005), is forecast to grow by 4.1 percent annually,
adding about 3,355 new aircraft by 2037, more than doubling its 2015 fleet size.
Although the total active general aviation fleet is projected to increase minimally, the number of general aviation hours flown is forecast to increase an average of 0.9 per-cent per year through 2037, as the newer aircraft fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston hours are forecast to decrease by 0.8 percent, the same rate as the fleet declines. Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are
forecast to increase 2.4 percent yearly over the forecast period. Jet aircraft are ex-pected to account for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours re-sult mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with estimated in-creases in utilization rates.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 2017 2027 2037Calendar Year
Active General Aviation Aircraft
Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing TurbineRotorcraft LSAExperimental and Other
24
Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily impacted by the previous economic down-turn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, faces the challenges brought by lower oil prices. They impact utilization rates and new aircraft orders both directly through de-creasing activity in oil exploration, and also through associated slowdown in related economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are pro-jected to grow by 2.0 percent annually over the forecast period.
Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 4.6 percent a year in hours flown, primarily driven by growth in the fleet.
The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Mon-roney Aeronautical Center. There were 584,362 active pilots certificated by FAA at
the end of 2016. While private and com-mercial pilot categories kept their declining trends, ATP and student pilot certificates continued to increase. One regulatory change that affected the number of student pilot certificates was the 2010 rule that in-creased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 60 months. Since 2011, the student pilot numbers have been rising and reached 128,501 in 2016.
Another change in the legislation impacted commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled airline) flight crew members would hold an ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate and mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2007 2017 2027 2037Calendar Year
General Aviation Hours Flown (in thousands)
Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing TurbineRotorcraft LSAExperimental and Other
25
longer operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data showed a faster decline in commercial pilot numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of increase in ATP certificates.
The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease about 7,500 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over the forecast period, while the ATP category
is forecast to increase by 15,500 (up 0.5 percent annually). The student pilots are forecast to increase by 0.4 percent and much smaller category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 4.1 percent annual-ly over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private and commercial pilot cer-tificates are projected to decrease at an av-erage annual rate of 0.7 and 0.6 percent, respectively until 2037.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2006 2016 2026 2037
Calendar Year
Active Pilots by Type of Certificate
Students Sport PilotPrivate Pilot Commercial PilotAir Transport Pilots Rotorcraft only
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FAA Operations
The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.8 percent a year between 2017 and 2037. Commercial operations5 at these facilities are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 5 times faster than non-commercial opera-tions. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in U.S. airline pas-senger traffic (1.5 percent vs. 1.9 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers without increasing the number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 51% of operations in 2016) are forecast to increase an average of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine powered activity more than offset declines in piston activity.
5 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi cate-gories.
FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations6 are forecast to grow slightly faster than at towered facilities. This is in part a reflection of the different mix of activity at Tracons. Total operations are forecast to increase an average of 1.0 per-cent a year between 2017 and 2037. Commercial operations accounted for ap-proximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 2016 and are projected to grow 1.3 per-cent a year over the forecast period. Gen-eral aviation activity at these facilities is pro-jected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast.
Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is meas-ured by the number of IFR aircraft handled.
6 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instru-ment Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR overflights.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2007 2017 2027 2037
Ope
ratio
ns (0
00)
Fiscal Year
FAA & Contract Tower Operations
Commercial Non Commercial
27
In 2016, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route Centers increased 3.1 percent, led by in-creases in the Air Carrier and General Avia-tion categories. Growth in airline traffic and business aviation is expected to lead to in-creases in activity at En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.3 percent a year as increases in Air Carrier and General Avia-tion activity offset declines in Air Taxi activi-ty. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to grow faster than activity at towered air-ports because more of the activity at En-Route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in na-ture, and does not impact the centers.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2007 2017 2027 2037
AC H
andl
ed (0
00)
Fiscal Year
En-Route Center Aircraft Handled
Commercial Non Commercial
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U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet
The number of aircraft in the U.S. commer-cial fleet is forecast to increase from 7,039 in 2016 to 8,270 in 2037, an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.
Between 2016 and 2037 the number of jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to grow from 4,073 to 5,199, an average of 54 aircraft a year as carriers continue to re-move older, less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including E-series aircraft at American and JetBlue) is projected to grow 37 aircraft a year as carri-ers replace the 757 fleet and current tech-nology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the next generation MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 17 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases by 67 percent over the forecast period.
The regional carrier fleet is forecast to de-cline from 2,156 aircraft in 2016 to 2,027 in
2037 as the fleet shrinks by 14 percent (309 aircraft) between 2016 and 2025. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 2037, the number of jets in the regional car-rier fleet totals 1,828, up from 1,637 in 2016. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to shrink by 62% from 519 in 2016 to 199 by 2037. These aircraft account for just 9.8 percent of the fleet in 2037, down from 24.1 percent in 2016.
The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is forecast to increase from 810 aircraft in 2016 to 1,044 aircraft in 2037 driven by the growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by less than 1 aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are converted from passenger use to cargo service. The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to increase 11 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 777-200, and new and con-verted 767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11, A300/310, and 767-200 freighters.
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006 2016 2026 2037Calendar Year
U.S. Carrier Fleet
Mainline NB Mainline WB
Cargo Jet Regionals
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Unmanned Aircraft Systems
An unmanned aircraft system is defined by statute as an aircraft that is operated with-out the possibility of direct human interven-tion from within or on the aircraft. A UAS is the unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associ-ated elements (including communication links and the components that control the unmanned aircraft) that are required for the safe and efficient operation of the un-manned aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS). This forecast is primarily driven by the ongoing evolution of the UAS regulatory environment, the ingenuity of manufacturers and operators, and underly-ing demand. While continuing to enable the thriving UAS industry, these efforts will fa-cilitate the safe integration of UAS into the NAS.
Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast
On December 14, 2015, the FAA issued a rule requiring all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be registered using a new on-line system (UAS weighing more than 55 pounds must be registered using the exist-ing Aircraft Registration Process). FAA’s online registration system went into effect on Dec. 21st, 2015. By December 31, 2016, 626,245 owner-hobbyists had registered. The rule allows hobbyists to register once and apply their unique registration number to multiple aircraft, unlike non-hobbyists who must obtain a unique registration num-ber for each non-hobby aircraft. As a result, for each registration, one or more aircraft is likely to be owned (with a few exceptions of no aircraft being owned as well). For the entire online registration period up to the first week of February 2017, the cumulative registration trend has been one of growth,
with the trend slowing over time. Weekly registration currently averages between 5,000 and 7,000, with anticipated hikes dur-ing the holiday seasons.
A geographic distribution shows hobbyist UAS ownership are distributed across the country with denser ownership correlated with population centers.
In addition to information from the registra-tion database, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Science held a UAS forecast workshop on October 25-26, 2016 involving industry, ac-ademia, and numerous modeler (hobbyist) and industry groups. The primary focus of this workshop was to understand the per-sonalized nature and numerous applications of UAS, maturity trends and their drivers, and safety implications of the UAS fleet from gradual integration into NAS. Further-
31
more, the Agency engaged outside consult-ing firms to aid forecasting efforts for both the model and non-model UAS fleets.
The FAA recognizes that uncertainty is abundant in projecting both the model and the non-model UAS fleet. Hence, we pro-vide a base forecast (i.e., likely) with high and low ranges in the following table for the model UAS fleet.
With over 626,000 hobbyists registered as of December 31, 2016, FAA estimates that there are around 1.1 million units that can be identified as distinctly hobbyist or model aircraft. By an examination of last year’s data, from February 2016 to February 2017, we calculate the compound annual growth rate to be around 68%. This is a substantial growth rate as anticipated from the introduc-tion of drones as a hobby sport facilitated by falling prices, improved technology such as built-in camera and ease of use. The regis-tration database allowed early adopters to enroll easily. However, the trend is likely to slow as prices settle and early adopters
learn to make use of their aircraft. Given the registration trends observed, expert opin-ions collected during the TRB-workshop, a review of available industry forecasts, and market/industry research, FAA forecasts that the hobbyist fleet will likely (base sce-nario) more than triple in size over the next 5 years, from 1.1 million units in 2016 to over 3.5 million units by 2021. The high scenario may reach as high as 4.5 million units while the low scenario could be as low as 2.75 million units over the next 5 years. Growth rates underlying these numbers are fairly steady at the initial years but slowing in the last 2 years.
Total Hobbyist FleetMillion sUAS Units
Year Low Base High2016 1.10 1.10 1.102017 1.94 2.15 2.312018 2.37 2.80 3.182019 2.60 3.20 3.792020 2.69 3.40 4.152021 2.75 3.55 4.47
Commercial Small UAS Forecast
Prior to on-line registration, commercial UAS operators were required to register us-ing the legacy paper-based process. Since the on-line system went live on April 1, 2016, more than 44,000 commercial UAS have been registered.
For each week on-line registration has been available, around 1,000 non-hobby units have been registered.
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Similar to hobbyists, a geospatial distribu-tion of commercial small UAS ownership shows denser areas correlated with eco-nomic or commercial activities across the country.
In June 2016 the FAA issued the Small UAS Rule (14 CFR part 107), which regulates the operation of small unmanned aircraft sys-tem in the National Airspace System. This rule, which took effect on August 29, 2016, provided a regulatory structure for the rou-tine operation of small UAS for commercial purposes.
The commercial drone sector is very dy-namic and appears to be at an early stage of growth. Unlike the hobbyist sector, FAA anticipates that growth in this sector will continue to accelerate over the next few years. Given the clarity that part 107 has provided to the industry, increasing com-mercial applications will become likely, which will facilitate additional growth.
Based on the registration trends observed, expert opinions collected during the TRB-workshop, review of available industry fore-casts, and market/industry research, FAA forecasts that the non-hobbyist fleet by 2021 will likely (base scenario) be ten times larger than the size of the fleet in 2016. FAA projects the number of units in the commercial small UAS fleet will exceed
420,000 by 2021, compared to 42,000 in 2016.
The forecast commercial small UAS fleet is primarily (over 95%) consumer grade off-the-shelf aircraft due to lower prices, ease of use, and availability. However, the high-er-end, bigger, professional grade fleet stands to expand rapidly over time, espe-cially as newer and more sophisticated uses are devised. Thus, while most (over 90%) of the growth in the commercial small UAS fleet will come from the consumer grade UAS, we anticipate a significant portion of commercial growth will come from profes-sional grade UAS as well.
Total Non-Hobbyist (Commercial) FleetMillion sUAS Units
Year Low Base High2016 0.042 0.042 0.0422017 0.095 0.108 0.2352018 0.133 0.167 0.4452019 0.173 0.242 0.7422020 0.207 0.327 1.1332021 0.238 0.422 1.616
Commercial small UAS are presently used for numerous applications. A review of available industry/market research (e.g., AUVSI (2015), Bard Primary Use in 2015, Bard Likely Use in 2016, Fredonia (2015), and other reports (2016)) reveals their over-all present (2015-2016) uses in the following chart:
33
Major applications of commercial small UAS are aerial photography (34%), construction, industrial and utility inspection (26%), real estate (26%) and agriculture (21%). Many of these UAS have multiple uses, and hence, the sum of the percentages in the above chart exceeds 100%.
One way to understand trends in commer-cial small UAS is to analyze the waiver ap-plications that are filed by commercial UAS operators. Both the magnitude and relative composition of the types of waiver requests may indicate the direction of the commercial UAS sector as a whole. A breakdown of the top 5 waiver requests is given in the chart below:
Beyond what is presently allowed under part 107, expanding commercial applications further would require waivers for night oper-ations (65%), operations over people (35%), and beyond visual line of sight or BVLOS (19%). Many of these waiver applications request relief for multiple types of opera-tions, and hence, the above total exceeds
100%. The Agency issues waivers to facili-tate case-by-case commercial activities be-yond the scope of what is allowed under part 107. Future regulatory development will allow these types of operations on a more routine basis. Meanwhile, analysis of these waiver applications allows us to un-derstand industry trends, one of many met-rics that is essential for projecting both the trajectory and growth trends of the sector.
Finally, more than 6,800 airspace waiver requests were submitted for operations in controlled airspace by the end of December, 2016. While almost half of them were for operations in class D airspace (i.e., smaller airports with control towers), other classes were also requested and regularly flown.
Remote Pilot Forecast
The other important metric to understand trends in the commercial small UAS industry is remote pilot certifications. The FAA is-sues Remote Pilots Certificates to individu-als who have passed an aeronautical knowledge test or completed online training (current part 61 airmen) under part 107. At present (December, 2016), the FAA has issued more than 29,000 Remote Pilot Cer-tificates. Over 90% of individuals who took the part 107 aeronautical knowledge exam passed, as of February, 2017.
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26
26
21
8
5
0 10 20 30 40
Aerial Photography
Real Estate
Construction, Industrial…
Agriculture
Emergency Management
Insurance
Percent
Present uses of Commercial sUAS
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The forecast for remote pilots (RPs) is thus based on two data sources: (a) trends in Remote Pilot certificates issued; and (b) trends in commercial small UAS registration and forecasts. For projecting Remote Pilot growth rates, we assume a ratio of the number of remote pilots to the number of aircraft in the non-hobbyist fleet.
Using these assumptions and the base sce-nario of commercial small UAS forecast, we
project the number of Remote Pilots will grow significantly following the growth trends of commercial small UAS sector.
Estimated Number of RPs2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1 UAS per RPA 20,362 107,800 166,800 241,800 327,000 422,0001.5 UAS per RPA 20,362 71,867 111,200 161,200 218,000 281,3332 UAS per RPA 20,362 53,900 83,400 120,900 163,500 211,000
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Forecast Uncertainties
The forecasts in this document are fore-casts of aviation demand, driven by models built on forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the U.S. and global economies. Shifting in-ternational dynamics and any impacts re-sulting from the new U.S. administration’s economic policies could drive further changes. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years (like the downing of a Russian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) remind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terror-ist incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that could be greater than its impact on overall economic activity.
Although oil prices remained below $45 per barrel for most of 2016, the recent volatility reminds us there is still considerable uncer-tainty as to the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global In-sight’s January 2017 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during the fourth quarter of 2016) calls for an increase in oil prices in 2017 to $47 per barrel and rise steadily thereafter, exceeding $70 by 2021, $100 by 2026, reaching $131 per bar-rel by the end of the forecast period in 2037. Some forecasters are calling for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In Janu-ary 2017, the World Bank released its latest commodity price forecast. The forecast calls for oil prices to rise to $55 per barrel in
2016, remaining below $65 until 2022, and reaching $80 per barrel by 2030. The Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees oil price increasing at a more moderate rate than the FAA’s base forecast, as its October 2016 forecast called for oil prices increasing from $43 per barrel in 2016 to only $57.65 per barrel by 2021. Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, and should enhance industry profitability.
The baseline forecast assumes some level of tax cuts and additional infrastructure spending to the U.S. economy with the new administration. However there is consider-able uncertainty as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of these programs which ulti-mately determines the impact on the future growth of the U.S. economy. In addition there is still much to be worked out on how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over the next several years. Under the right conditions, a period of sus-tained high and more inclusive growth along with increased financial stability could occur but there is also the possibility of an out-come that leads to greater global economic fragmentation, slower growth, and in-creased financial instability.
The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate after 2016, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength and sustainability of the expan-sion. The baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth engines for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance on heavy manufacturing and resource indus-tries to one more oriented towards the ser-vices and technology sectors and India con-
36
tinues to implement reforms to make its economy more competitive. While economic growth appears to be accelerating in the U.S., there are concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Union as these areas continue to be con-strained by structural economic problems (high debt, slow population growth, weak public finances for example) and in the case of Europe, political elections in 2017. Fur-thermore, the steps that were taken to stabi-lize the global economy during the Great Recession have resulted in additional distor-tions and imbalances. There are concerns that central banks may not raise interest rates in time to contain asset bubbles and inflationary expectations. In advanced economies, governments need to shore up their finances but it is unclear if policy mak-ers will take the steps needed. Given the discomfort many policy makers feel about the measures adopted to combat the Great Recession and uncertainty about the ad-vanced economies’ prospects, the possibil-ity that authorities will either act prematurely or be excessively timid and late in taking necessary steps is not insignificant. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger de-mand.
With the merger of American Airlines and US Airways completed and the approval of the Alaska Airlines/Virgin America merger, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisitions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 2016 data, the top 6 (American, Delta, United, South-west) plus Alaska/Virgin and JetBlue ac-counted for more than 85% of the U.S. air-line industry capacity and traffic. Of the
network carriers, only Alaska remains inde-pendent, although it does have code share agreements with both American and Delta. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of risk associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. For the network carriers, it is unclear how regulatory authori-ties will respond to any future proposed mergers.
The forecast assumes the addition of siza-ble numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a lack of pilots. Although air travel de-mand continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional operators have not abated. Net-work carriers continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their networks, without providing opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring its total to just 125 by 2018, down from al-most 500 at the end of 2009. United has reduced the number of small regional jets flown by its partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 242 by the end of 2015 with a target of 100 by 2019. It is adding 85 Em-braer 175’s to its partners’ regional fleet to partially replace the reduction in small jet flying. Meanwhile American has trimmed its small regional jet fleet by 60 aircraft since the beginning of 2015 and is planning to remove another 55 from service in 2017. At the same time the carrier plans to add 31 larger regional jets to its fleet in 2017, on top of the 83 that have been added in the
37
past two years. While these actions may provide some opportunities for well posi-tioned regional carriers, the overall impact of consolidation so far has been to reduce opportunities for regional flying substantial-ly.
After suffering through a significant down-turn in 2009, business and corporate avia-tion have seen a partial recovery during the past six years. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of econom-ic growth and corporate profits. Future un-certainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Other influences, such as potential environmental regulations and taxes do not seem to be as much of a concern in the short term, but over the long term, uncertainties about the direction of these influences may place downward pres-sure on the forecast. On the other hand, there could be a pent-up demand for busi-ness jets in the near term that could push the forecast higher. While corporate profits have been high for several years, perceived economic and political uncertainties have caused companies to postpone their pur-chase of new business aircraft. With the new administration’s emphasis on policies designed to stimulate economic growth and limit regulation, companies are feeling more optimistic about their future prospects that can translate into additional business jet sales. The impact of fuel price movements on business aircraft demand is also uncer-tain. Demand is increased due to the posi-tive effect of declining fuel prices on corpo-rate profits. However, business aircraft de-mand from energy related industries will be negatively impacted by low fuel prices.
Other factors, such as new and more effi-cient product offerings and increased com-
petition from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the indus-try. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corpo-rate jet travel look increasingly appealing.
Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the next 20 years, but the mix of air-craft is changing for this same period. The expected increases in the numbers of re-gional jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS into the national airspace system will make the FAA’s job more challenging. This change in the mix of aircraft will impact workload strictly due to the increasing de-mand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.
While overall activity at FAA and contract towers increased 0.5 percent in 2016, activi-ty at large and medium hub airports (61 in total) increased 1.9 percent in 2016 and de-lays remained at historically high levels at many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts opera-tions at these airports to grow substantially faster than the overall national trend. As demand continues to grow and workload increases, congestion and delays could be-come a critical limit to growth over the fore-cast period. FAA’s forecasts of both de-mand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be in-adequate and result in even more conges-tion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of both demand and operations would not be achieved.
Community concerns about aviation related impacts could potentially limit or delay the ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet
38
national economic and mobility needs. Air-port expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. Con-cerns about aviation noise have led to in-creasing levels of public debate, political interest, and even litigation. Without effec-tive measures to mitigate and abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects that are needed to achieve aviation growth may be constrained. In addition to local community concerns outlined previously, the climate impacts of aviation also present global chal-lenges. Aviation currently accounts for two to three percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and without action this percentage is expected to increase with the growth in operations. The international avia-tion community is focused on implementing ICAO’s comprehensive approach achieving carbon neutral growth through a ‘basket of measures’ comprising of technical, opera-tional, and infrastructure enhancements, sustainable alternative fuels, and the im-
plementation of a global market-based measure as a gap-filler. In addition to providing economic benefits, technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency also pro-vide benefits in terms of reduced CO2 emis-sions. The use of alternative fuels can also mitigate CO2 emissions while also providing economic benefits in areas where the fuel is being produced while also mitigating jet fuel price volatility. A global market-based measured for international CO2 emissions will impose an additional cost to internation-al airlines; however this is economically preferable to a patchwork of State or Re-gional-level regulations around the world. Continued improvements in fuel efficiency, noise reduction and alternative fuels are required to ensure that access restrictions or operating limitations are not imposed on the fleet in service which in turn may de-press growth.
39
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios
Uncertainty exists in all industries, but es-pecially in the commercial air travel industry. As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA has provides alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity. To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions from IHS Global In-sight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were used. To develop the alter-native scenarios, assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year optimistic and pes-simistic forecasts from their January 2017 Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook were com-bined with the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts from their Fall 2016 30-year U.S. Macro forecast. Inputs from these alterna-tive scenarios were used to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield fore-cast. International passengers and traffic are pri-marily driven by country specific Gross Do-mestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative scenarios use inputs based on ratios de-rived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trad-ing Partner and Minor Trading Partners op-timistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high and low case.
Scenario Assumptions
The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast as-sumes that the economy experiences a pickup in growth over the next few years as a result of tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending. Oil prices remain low by historic
standards and there are no financial sector collapses.
The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The op-timistic forecast sees a rollback in regula-tions and lower corporate taxes resulting in higher capital spending. Stronger growth in investment spending leads to a boost in productivity and raises economic growth above the baseline case. Given the strengthening outlook, both business and consumer confidence improve leading to robust consumer spending with the housing sector remaining an engine of growth. Con-tinuing oversupply in oil markets keep oil prices low. Inflation remains in check with higher productivity, lower oil prices, and higher interest rates than in the baseline case. In this scenario real personal con-sumption expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.4 percentage points faster per year than the baseline forecast and unemployment averages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal year basis than the base-line.7
Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario. In this forecast, strained relations with major trading partners fuels uncertainty that caus-es business to cut back on investment and slows productivity growth leading to a
7 Real personal consumption expenditure per capita and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low fore-casts of enplanements.
40
pickup in both wage and price inflation. In addition, the Eurozone’s recovery will stall and growth in emerging markets will be less robust. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to keep inflation in check but business and consumer confidence deteriorate. The combination of higher inflation, higher inter-est rates, and uncertainty negatively impact consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment, and the U.S. economy suffers a shallow recession in 2018 and the unemployment rate peaks at
6.6%. The Federal Reserve responds by slashing interest rates which spurs a recov-ery in 2019. In the long run, compared to the baseline forecast, productivity growth remains subdued, oil prices are higher, and economic growth is slower. Real PCE per capita in this scenario grows 0.4 percentage points slower per year than in the baseline; and unemployment, on average, is 0.9 points higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita
Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight
41
324 326
337
347 357
366 374
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
2016 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037
Anun
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Popu
latio
n ( m
illio
ns)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Population
All scenarios Annual Percent Change
Source: IHS Global Insight
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
% U
nem
ploy
ed
Fiscal Year
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight
42
The price of energy is one of the drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, en-ergy prices and import prices grow more
slowly than in the baseline. In the pessimis-tic case the opposite occurs with energy prices, wages and import prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline.
- 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Pric
e pe
r Bar
rel (
$)
Fiscal Year
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
Source: IHS Global Insight
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
BLS
Inde
x U
nits
*
Fiscal Year
Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00 Source: IHS Global Insight
43
Alternative Forecasts
Enplanements
In the baseline forecast, system enplane-ments are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2017-2037 (with domes-tic and international passengers up 1.7 and 3.5 percent, respectively).
In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at a quicker pace, averaging 2.6 percent per year (up 2.3 percent domestically and 4.7 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business envi-ronment, and lower fuel prices which make the price of flying more affordable to busi-ness and leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2037, system passen-
gers in the optimistic case are 14.6 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.4 billion, 179 million greater than in the baseline.
The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, low consumer demand, and higher inflation. In this scenario enplanements grow an aver-age of 1.5 percent per year (domestic up 1.3 percent and international up 3.0 per-cent). In the pessimistic case, system pas-sengers in 2037 are 8.3 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.125 billion, 101 million fewer than in the baseline.
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
System Enplanements
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
44
Revenue Passenger Miles
In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent a year over the forecast horizon (2017-2037), with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent annually and international RPMs growing 3.4 percent annually.
In the optimistic case, the faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth averaging 3.2 percent per year (do-
mestic and international RPMs up 2.6 and 4.5 percent, respectively).
In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.0 percent annually with domestic markets growing 1.5 percent a year while interna-tional traffic grows 3.0 percent annually.
Available Seat Miles
In the base case, system capacity is fore-cast to increase an average of 2.3 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 1.8 percent annually in domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in international markets.
In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, av-eraging 3.1 percent annually system-wide (2.4 and 4.5 percent for domestic and inter-national markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
System Revenue Passenger Miles
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
45
demand brought about by a more favorable economic environment.
In the pessimistic case, demand for air trav-el is lower than in the baseline, thus system
capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.9 per-cent annually (domestic growth of 1.4 per-cent annually and international up 2.9 per-cent annually).
Load Factor
System load factors over the 20-year fore-cast period are relatively similar for all three forecast scenarios. System load factor rises from 83.2 percent in 2017 to 84.4 (optimis-tic), 84.5 (pessimistic), and 84.6 (baseline) percent in 2037, respectively.
In all three scenarios it is assumed that car-riers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers).
The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 84.1 percent to 86.3
percent in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, while rising to 86.4 percent in the baseline.
The international load factor is forecast to rise gradually from 80.9 in 2016 to 81.2 per-cent in 2037 in the optimistic scenario and 81.3 percent in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. This reflects in part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037
Annu
al P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Fiscal Year
System Available Seat Miles
Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic
46
Yield
In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 2.1 percent annually, going from 13.56 cents in 2017 to 20.38 cents in 2037. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 13.76 cents in 2017 to 21.16 cents in 2037. International yield rises from 13.04 cents in 2017 to 18.89 cents in 2037.
System yield rises in the optimistic case at the same rate as in the baseline, up 2.1 percent annually to 20.46 cents by 2037. Domestic yield increases to 21.33 cents while international yield increases to 18.95 cents. The modest growth in yield in both cases is due to advancements in technolo-
gy, gains in productivity, and relatively fa-vorable fuel prices.
In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.6 percent annually, reach-ing 22.62 cents by 2037 (24.55 cents do-mestically and 18.90 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general do-mestic inflation and higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to in-crease fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.
47
TABL
E A-
1
FAA
FORE
CAST
ECO
NOM
IC A
SSUM
PTIO
NS
FISC
AL Y
EARS
201
6-20
37
Hist
oric
alFO
RECA
STPE
RCEN
T AV
ERAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
Varia
ble
Scen
ario
2016
E20
1720
2220
2720
3220
3720
16-1
720
17-2
220
17-2
720
17-3
220
17-3
7Ec
onom
icAs
sum
ptio
nsRe
al Pe
rson
al Co
nsum
ption
Pess
imist
ic35
,306
35,9
2038
,095
40,6
6843
,201
45,7
081.
7%1.
2%1.
2%1.
2%1.
2%Ex
pend
iture
per
Cap
itaBa
selin
e35
,306
36,0
2239
,406
42,3
3945
,575
49,1
022.
0%1.
8%1.
6%1.
6%1.
6%(2
009
$)O
ptim
istic
35,3
0636
,111
41,3
5944
,874
48,9
4653
,798
2.3%
2.8%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
Re
finer
s Ac
quisi
tion
Cost
-Pe
ssim
istic
39.1
59.5
81.9
112.
313
6.9
168.
352
.2%
6.6%
6.6%
5.7%
5.3%
Aver
age
- $ P
er B
arre
lBa
selin
e39
.146
.977
.410
4.8
117.
413
1.4
19.8
%10
.6%
8.4%
6.3%
5.3%
O
ptim
istic
39.1
44.0
67.0
92.6
97.3
104.
212
.6%
8.7%
7.7%
5.4%
4.4%
Co
nsum
er P
rice
Index
Pess
imist
ic2.
392.
462.
843.
323.
954.
723.
0%2.
9%3.
0%3.
2%3.
3%Al
l Urb
an, 1
982-
84 =
1.0
Base
line
2.39
2.45
2.77
3.16
3.56
4.01
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
Opt
imist
ic2.
392.
452.
843.
253.
654.
122.
7%3.
0%2.
8%2.
7%2.
6%
Civil
ian U
nem
ploym
ent R
ate
Pess
imist
ic4.
94.
85.
35.
65.
55.
3-2
.6%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
0.5%
(%)
Base
line
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
-5.6
%-1
.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Opt
imist
ic4.
94.
73.
64.
54.
54.
4-5
.4%
-4.9
%-0
.3%
-0.3
%-0
.3%
Sour
ce: I
HS G
lobal
Insig
ht
48
TABL
E A-
2
FAA
FORE
CAST
OF
AVIA
TIO
N AC
TIVI
TY*
FISC
AL Y
EARS
201
6-20
37
Hist
oric
alFO
RECA
STPE
RCEN
T AV
ERAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
Varia
ble
Scen
ario
2016
E20
1720
2220
2720
3220
3720
16-1
720
17-2
220
17-2
720
17-3
220
17-3
7Sy
stem
Av
iatio
n Ac
tivity
Av
aila
ble
Seat
Mile
sPe
ssim
istic
1,11
1.6
1,14
7.0
1,25
3.7
1,37
7.0
1,51
6.5
1,67
1.5
3.2%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
(BIL
)Ba
selin
e1,
111.
61,
147.
01,
297.
41,
444.
21,
618.
41,
814.
23.
2%2.
5%2.
3%2.
3%2.
3%O
ptim
istic
1,11
1.6
1,14
7.0
1,38
6.2
1,57
5.9
1,82
1.1
2,11
5.0
3.2%
3.9%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
R
even
ue P
asse
nger
Mile
sPe
ssim
istic
928.
095
4.1
1,05
2.5
1,16
1.0
1,28
1.1
1,41
3.0
2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
(BIL
)Ba
selin
e92
8.0
954.
11,
089.
61,
217.
91,
367.
41,
534.
32.
8%2.
7%2.
5%2.
4%2.
4%O
ptim
istic
928.
095
4.1
1,16
3.8
1,32
7.6
1,53
6.1
1,78
4.8
2.8%
4.1%
3.4%
3.2%
3.2%
Enpl
anem
ents
Pess
imis
tic81
9.6
836.
089
4.2
964.
41,
042.
41,
125.
32.
0%1.
4%1.
4%1.
5%1.
5%(M
IL)
Base
line
819.
683
7.5
930.
61,
013.
81,
114.
01,
226.
62.
2%2.
1%1.
9%1.
9%1.
9%O
ptim
istic
819.
683
6.8
995.
71,
098.
01,
236.
91,
405.
52.
1%3.
5%2.
8%2.
6%2.
6%
Psgr
Car
rier M
iles
Flow
nPe
ssim
istic
7,34
6.0
7,51
8.2
7,95
0.6
8,53
4.8
9,21
0.2
9,94
8.0
2.3%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
(MIL
)Ba
selin
e7,
346.
07,
518.
28,
243.
38,
953.
69,
827.
010
,808
.42.
3%1.
9%1.
8%1.
8%1.
8%
Opt
imis
tic7,
346.
07,
518.
28,
824.
19,
753.
811
,017
.212
,539
.22.
3%3.
3%2.
6%2.
6%2.
6%
Ps
gr C
arrie
r Dep
artu
res
Pess
imis
tic9,
058.
29,
280.
09,
506.
19,
946.
010
,359
.410
,816
.92.
4%0.
5%0.
7%0.
7%0.
8%(0
00s)
Base
line
9,05
8.2
9,28
9.8
9,89
3.8
10,4
43.6
11,0
53.0
11,7
78.2
2.6%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
Opt
imis
tic9,
058.
29,
284.
710
,597
.911
,297
.612
,239
.213
,445
.52.
5%2.
7%2.
0%1.
9%1.
9%
Nom
inal
Pas
seng
er Y
ield
Pess
imis
tic13
.44
13.6
115
.35
17.4
619
.85
22.6
21.
3%2.
4%2.
5%2.
5%2.
6%(c
ents
)Ba
selin
e13
.44
13.5
515
.29
17.1
418
.69
20.3
80.
9%2.
4%2.
4%2.
2%2.
1%O
ptim
istic
13.4
413
.59
15.4
717
.35
18.8
220
.46
1.1%
2.6%
2.5%
2.2%
2.1%
* Inc
ludes
dom
estic
and
inte
rnat
iona
l act
ivity
.
49
TABL
E A-
3
FAA
FORE
CAST
OF
DOM
ESTI
C AV
IATI
ON
ACTI
VITY
FISC
AL Y
EARS
201
6-20
37
Hist
oric
alFO
RECA
STPE
RCEN
T AV
ERAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
Varia
ble
Scen
ario
2016
E20
1720
2220
2720
3220
3720
16-1
720
17-2
220
17-2
720
17-3
220
17-3
7Do
mes
ticAv
iatio
n Ac
tivity
Av
aila
ble
Seat
Mile
sPe
ssim
istic
783.
081
3.3
859.
892
4.4
999.
11,
076.
93.
9%1.
1%1.
3%1.
4%1.
4%(B
IL)
Base
line
783.
081
3.3
894.
396
8.0
1,06
1.7
1,16
8.5
3.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
Opt
imis
tic78
3.0
813.
395
7.3
1,04
1.0
1,16
3.4
1,31
4.5
3.9%
3.3%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
R
even
ue P
asse
nger
Mile
sPe
ssim
istic
663.
268
4.2
732.
579
2.9
860.
292
9.4
3.2%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
(BIL
)Ba
selin
e66
3.2
684.
276
2.2
830.
791
4.7
1,00
9.2
3.2%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Opt
imis
tic66
3.2
684.
281
5.6
892.
91,
001.
71,
134.
43.
2%3.
6%2.
7%2.
6%2.
6%
Enpl
anem
ents
Pess
imis
tic72
6.2
741.
978
3.6
836.
889
5.8
955.
02.
2%1.
1%1.
2%1.
3%1.
3%(M
IL)
Base
line
726.
274
1.9
815.
387
6.7
952.
61,
037.
02.
2%1.
9%1.
7%1.
7%1.
7%O
ptim
istic
726.
274
1.9
872.
594
2.4
1043
.11,
165.
72.
2%3.
3%2.
4%2.
3%2.
3%
Psgr
Car
rier M
iles
Flow
nPe
ssim
istic
5,81
5.9
5,97
1.2
6,14
0.9
6,47
1.5
6,86
9.1
7,27
7.4
2.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
(MIL
)Ba
selin
e5,
815.
95,
971.
26,
389.
66,
779.
07,
302.
77,
900.
62.
7%1.
4%1.
3%1.
4%1.
4%
Opt
imis
tic5,
815.
95,
971.
26,
842.
57,
293.
08,
005.
78,
892.
12.
7%2.
8%2.
0%2.
0%2.
0%
Ps
gr C
arrie
r Dep
artu
res
Pess
imis
tic8,
391.
58,
613.
78,
740.
49,
080.
19,
379.
99,
692.
42.
6%0.
3%0.
5%0.
6%0.
6%(0
00s)
Base
line
8,39
1.5
8,61
3.7
9,09
5.4
9,51
2.8
9,97
3.5
10,5
24.3
2.6%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Opt
imis
tic8,
391.
58,
613.
79,
740.
910
,234
.810
,934
.511
,846
.12.
6%2.
5%1.
7%1.
6%1.
6%
Nom
inal
Pas
seng
er Y
ield
Pess
imis
tic13
.68
13.8
415
.81
18.2
021
.09
24.5
51.
2%2.
7%2.
8%2.
8%2.
9%(c
ents
)Ba
selin
e13
.68
13.7
615
.71
17.7
419
.37
21.1
60.
6%2.
7%2.
6%2.
3%2.
2%O
ptim
istic
13.6
813
.81
15.9
618
.06
19.6
021
.33
0.9%
2.9%
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
50
TABL
E A-
4
FAA
FO
REC
AST
OF
INTE
RN
ATI
ON
AL
AVI
ATI
ON
AC
TIVI
TY*
FISC
AL
YEA
RS
2016
-203
7
His
toric
alFO
REC
AST
PER
CEN
T AV
ERAG
E AN
NU
AL G
RO
WTH
Varia
ble
Scen
ario
2016
E20
1720
2220
2720
3220
3720
16-1
720
17-2
220
17-2
720
17-3
220
17-3
7In
tern
atio
nal
Avia
tion
Activ
ity
Avai
labl
e Se
at M
iles
Pess
imis
tic32
8.6
333.
7
39
4.0
452.
6
51
7.4
594.
6
1.
5%3.
4%3.
1%3.
0%2.
9%(B
IL)
Base
line
328.
6
33
3.7
403.
1
47
6.3
556.
6
64
5.6
1.5%
3.9%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
Opt
imis
tic32
8.6
333.
7
42
8.8
534.
9
65
7.7
800.
5
1.
5%5.
1%4.
8%4.
6%4.
5%
Rev
enue
Pas
seng
er M
iles
Pess
imis
tic26
4.8
269.
8
32
0.0
368.
1
42
0.8
483.
7
1.
9%3.
5%3.
2%3.
0%3.
0%(B
IL)
Base
line
264.
8
26
9.8
327.
4
38
7.3
452.
7
52
5.1
1.9%
3.9%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
Opt
imis
tic26
4.8
269.
8
34
8.2
434.
7
53
4.4
650.
4
1.
9%5.
2%4.
9%4.
7%4.
5%
Enpl
anem
ents
Pess
imis
tic93
.4
94.1
11
0.7
127.
5
14
6.6
170.
3
0.
7%3.
3%3.
1%3.
0%3.
0%(M
IL)
Base
line
93.4
95
.6
115.
3
13
7.1
161.
4
18
9.6
2.3%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
Opt
imis
tic93
.4
94.9
12
3.2
155.
6
19
3.8
239.
8
1.
5%5.
4%5.
1%4.
9%4.
7%
Psgr
Car
rier M
iles
Flow
nPe
ssim
istic
1,53
0.1
1,
546.
9
1,80
9.7
2,
063.
3
2,34
1.1
2,
670.
6
1.1%
3.2%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
(MIL
)Ba
selin
e1,
530.
1
1,54
6.9
1,
853.
7
2,17
4.6
2,
524.
3
2,90
7.8
1.
1%3.
7%3.
5%3.
3%3.
2%
Opt
imis
tic1,
530.
1
1,54
6.9
1,
981.
6
2,46
0.7
3,
011.
5
3,64
7.1
1.
1%5.
1%4.
8%4.
5%4.
4%
Ps
gr C
arrie
r Dep
artu
res
Pess
imis
tic66
6.8
666.
4
76
5.7
865.
8
97
9.5
1,12
4.5
-0
.1%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
(000
s)Ba
selin
e66
6.8
676.
1
79
8.4
930.
8
1,
079.
4
1,25
4.0
1.
4%3.
4%3.
2%3.
2%3.
1%O
ptim
istic
666.
8
67
1.1
857.
0
1,
062.
8
1,30
4.7
1,
599.
4
0.6%
5.0%
4.7%
4.5%
4.4%
Nom
inal
Pas
seng
er Y
ield
Pess
imis
tic12
.83
13.0
3
14
.31
15.8
5
17
.31
18.9
0
1.
6%1.
9%2.
0%1.
9%1.
9%(c
ents
)Ba
selin
e12
.83
13.0
3
14
.31
15.8
5
17
.31
18.8
9
1.
6%1.
9%2.
0%1.
9%1.
9%O
ptim
istic
12.8
3
13
.03
14.3
3
15
.89
17.3
7
18
.95
1.6%
1.9%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
*Inc
lude
s m
ainl
ine
and
regi
onal
car
riers
.
51
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy
Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They in-volve not only statistical analyses and vari-ous scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate in-dustry trends not yet reflected in recent re-sults. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Fore-cast is no exception. Given the volatile na-ture of the U.S. airline industry, it is not sur-prising that each year’s forecast would con-tain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance from actual results.
The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for a primary forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2016 forecast period. Although many of the fore-casts prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline indus-try was going through upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inac-curate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.
The table below contains the mean ab-solute percent errors for the projected val-ues versus the actual results for U.S. carri-ers’ system operations along with the pro-jected values versus actual results for U.S.
GDP. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.6 per-cent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2016 occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2015. 8
8 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY 2012.
52
Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the fore-cast is prepared. Presenting forecast vari-ances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. Examination of the forecast variances re-veals several items. First, the forecast vari-ances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, are similar to the variances of the key traffic measures, Passenger Enplanements and RPMs. This suggests that a substantial amount of the forecast variance for the traf-fic variables may be attributed to the fore-cast error in the exogenous variables. Sec-
ond, all the metrics examined show increas-ing variances as the forecast time horizon lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR aircraft handled relative to ASM variance is fairly consistent for the 2 to 4 year out hori-zon. This suggests that beyond a 2 year forecast horizon carriers are able to ac-commodate changes in capacity by means other than adjusting operations. Many car-riers have been systematically reducing the number smaller regional jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat air-craft. This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without increasing flights. It is worth noting that the forecast variance in these two metrics is relatively consistent even as the time horizon increases suggest-ing that over the long run ASM growth is a good indicator of operations growth.
Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010 - FY 2016)Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years
U.S. Real GDP 1.3% 3.0% 5.7% 8.6% 10.6%ASMs 1.0% 2.3% 5.6% 10.3% 15.2%RPMs 1.1% 1.9% 4.6% 8.6% 12.5%Passenger Enplanements 0.8% 1.7% 4.6% 8.5% 12.0%Mainline Domestic Yield 3.0% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9% 7.5%IFR Aircraft Handled* 1.6% 3.5% 7.0% 11.6% 17.7%*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial
SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITYFORECAST EVALUATION
U.S. AIR CARRIERS
53
Appendix C: Forecast Tables
54
TAB
LE 1
U.S
. SH
OR
T-TE
RM
EC
ON
OM
IC F
OR
ECAS
TS
FISC
AL Y
EAR
2016
FISC
AL Y
EAR
2017
FISC
AL Y
EAR
2018
ECO
NOM
IC V
ARIA
BLE
1ST.
QTR
.2N
D. Q
TR.
3RD
QTR
.4T
H. Q
TR.
1ST.
QTR
.2N
D. Q
TR.
3RD
QTR
.4T
H. Q
TR.
1ST.
QTR
.2N
D. Q
TR.
3RD
QTR
.4T
H. Q
TR.
Real
Per
sona
l Con
sum
ptio
n Ex
pend
iture
pe
r Cap
ita
(2
009
$)35
,045
35,1
3235
,433
35,6
1435
,765
35,9
5436
,101
36,2
6536
,433
36,6
9036
,946
37,1
68Ye
ar o
ver y
ear c
hang
e1.
7%1.
5%1.
9%2.
0%2.
1%2.
3%1.
9%1.
8%1.
9%2.
0%2.
3%2.
5%
Refin
ers'
Acq
uisi
tion
Cost
- Av
erag
e
(D
olla
rs p
er b
arre
l)40
.61
30.7
842
.18
42.9
044
.32
45.6
348
.25
49.2
248
.46
47.3
950
.46
52.0
5Ye
ar o
ver y
ear c
hang
e-4
5.0%
-35.
8%-2
6.5%
-9.8
%9.
1%48
.2%
14.4
%14
.7%
9.3%
3.9%
4.6%
5.8%
Cons
umer
Pric
e In
dex
(198
2-84
equ
als
100)
238.
123
7.9
239.
424
0.4
242.
424
4.0
245.
424
6.6
247.
724
8.9
250.
425
1.8
Seas
onal
ly A
djus
ted
Annu
al R
ate
0.8%
-0.3
%2.
5%1.
6%3.
5%2.
6%2.
2%2.
0%1.
9%1.
8%2.
5%2.
3%So
urce
: IHS
Glo
bal I
nsig
ht
55
TAB
LE 2
U.S
. LO
NG
-TER
M E
CO
NO
MIC
FO
REC
AST
S
RE
AL
GR
OS
S
DO
ME
STI
C P
RO
DU
CT
RE
AL
PE
RS
ON
AL
CO
NS
UM
PTI
ON
E
XP
EN
DIT
UR
E P
ER
CA
PIT
AC
ON
SU
ME
R P
RIC
E
IND
EX
RE
FIN
ER
S'
AC
QU
ISIT
ION
CO
ST
AV
ER
AG
EFI
SC
AL
YE
AR
(Billi
ons
2009
$)
(20
09 $
)(1
982-
84=1
.00)
(Dol
lars
per
bar
rel)
His
toric
al20
1014
,685
32,1
862.
1774
.61
2011
14,9
5832
,787
2.23
96.0
020
1215
,306
33,0
342.
2910
2.81
2013
15,5
1033
,217
2.32
100.
7820
1415
,884
33,7
862.
3697
.79
2015
16,3
2134
,682
2.37
56.6
920
16E
16,5
8135
,306
2.39
39.1
2
Fore
cast
2017
16,9
3736
,022
2.45
46.8
520
1817
,365
36,8
102.
5049
.59
2019
17,7
9137
,651
2.56
55.4
820
2018
,163
38,2
592.
6262
.83
2021
18,5
6338
,832
2.69
70.1
9
2022
18,9
6039
,406
2.77
77.4
120
2319
,353
39,9
652.
8484
.22
2024
19,7
3040
,545
2.92
90.3
820
2520
,099
41,1
453.
0095
.95
2026
20,4
5441
,729
3.08
100.
92
2027
20,8
3442
,339
3.16
104.
7920
2821
,262
42,9
893.
2410
7.42
2029
21,6
8343
,623
3.31
109.
7920
3022
,114
44,2
443.
3911
2.24
2031
22,5
5744
,896
3.47
114.
76
2032
23,0
0245
,575
3.56
117.
3820
3323
,448
46,2
603.
6412
0.05
2034
23,9
2746
,962
3.73
122.
7920
3524
,411
47,6
623.
8212
5.60
2036
24,9
0148
,369
3.91
128.
4820
3725
,392
49,1
024.
0113
1.44
Avg
Ann
ual G
row
th20
10-1
62.
0%1.
6%1.
6%-1
0.2%
2016
-17
2.1%
2.0%
2.4%
19.8
%20
16-2
62.
1%1.
7%2.
6%9.
9%20
16-3
72.
1%1.
6%2.
5%5.
9%S
ourc
e: IH
S G
loba
l Ins
ight
56
TABL
E 3
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L G
DP F
ORE
CAST
S BY
TRA
VEL
REG
ION
GROS
S DO
MES
TIC
PROD
UCT
(In B
illion
s of
201
0 U.
S. D
ollar
s)
CALE
NDAR
YEA
RCA
NADA
EURO
PE /
AFRI
CA/
MID
DLE
EAST
LATI
N AM
ERIC
A /
CARI
BBEA
N /
MEX
ICO
JAPA
N / P
ACIF
IC
BASI
N / C
HINA
/ OT
HER
ASIA
/ AU
STRA
LIA
/ NEW
ZE
ALAN
DW
ORLD
Histo
rical
2010
1,61
425
,032
5,20
119
,001
65,8
1120
111,
664
25,6
515,
430
19,8
9667
,844
2012
1,69
325
,854
5,57
820
,838
69,5
0420
131,
735
26,0
985,
737
21,8
5471
,226
2014
1,78
026
,579
5,79
722
,808
73,1
4020
151,
796
27,0
525,
773
23,8
1975
,037
2016
E1,
820
27,5
015,
711
24,8
5176
,739
Fore
cast
2017
1,85
827
,974
5,77
825
,928
78,7
7920
181,
902
28,5
405,
909
27,0
6481
,110
2019
1,94
529
,137
6,09
228
,252
83,5
2720
201,
984
29,7
746,
296
29,4
7386
,004
2021
2,02
630
,447
6,48
930
,802
88,6
42
2022
2,06
731
,137
6,69
432
,195
91,3
8420
232,
109
31,8
316,
902
33,6
2994
,165
2024
2,15
032
,530
7,12
235
,109
96,9
9420
252,
192
33,2
347,
344
36,6
0899
,832
2026
2,23
633
,930
7,57
838
,137
102,
713
2027
2,27
934
,639
7,81
839
,684
105,
659
2028
2,32
235
,353
8,06
441
,232
108,
641
2029
2,36
536
,071
8,31
642
,791
111,
643
2030
2,40
936
,802
8,57
644
,350
114,
677
2031
2,45
437
,539
8,84
345
,898
117,
725
2032
2,50
038
,284
9,11
947
,447
120,
792
2033
2,54
739
,040
9,40
349
,019
123,
910
2034
2,59
539
,806
9,69
750
,609
127,
097
2035
2,64
540
,584
10,0
0152
,240
130,
353
2036
2,69
641
,376
10,3
1353
,914
133,
678
2037
2,74
842
,186
10,6
3555
,623
137,
073
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
4.6%
2.6%
2016
-17
2.1%
1.7%
1.2%
4.3%
2.7%
2016
-26
2.1%
2.1%
2.9%
4.4%
3.0%
2016
-37
2.0%
2.1%
3.0%
3.9%
2.8%
Sour
ce:
Glob
al In
sight
web
site,
GDP
Com
pone
nts
Table
s (In
terim
For
ecas
t, M
onth
ly)
57
TAB
LE 4
INTE
RN
ATIO
NAL
GD
P FO
REC
ASTS
– S
ELEC
TED
AR
EAS/
CO
UN
TRIE
S
GRO
SS D
OM
ESTI
C P
ROD
UCT
(In B
illion
s of
201
0 U.
S. D
olla
rs)
CAL
END
AR Y
EAR
NORT
H AM
ERIC
A (N
AFTA
)EU
ROZO
NEUN
ITED
KI
NGD
OM
JAPA
NC
HINA
Hist
oric
al20
1017
,629
12,6
452,
431
5,71
36,
085
2011
17,9
6212
,846
2,46
85,
708
6,66
820
1218
,371
12,7
362,
500
5,79
37,
190
2013
18,6
9212
,708
2,54
85,
910
7,74
820
1419
,137
12,8
582,
626
5,92
58,
314
2015
19,6
0513
,106
2,68
45,
999
8,89
020
16E
19,9
1413
,326
2,74
06,
058
9,48
5
Fore
cast
2017
20,3
6213
,516
2,77
66,
120
10,0
8920
1820
,889
13,7
322,
809
6,17
610
,717
2019
21,3
7513
,932
2,85
26,
219
11,3
7020
2021
,830
14,1
242,
904
6,23
012
,062
2021
22,3
1314
,333
2,97
06,
290
12,7
87
2022
22,8
0914
,550
3,03
96,
351
13,5
5720
2323
,297
14,7
673,
107
6,41
814
,355
2024
23,7
7114
,984
3,17
36,
483
15,1
9120
2524
,230
15,1
973,
239
6,54
516
,036
2026
24,7
0015
,409
3,30
66,
607
16,8
96
2027
25,2
0115
,620
3,37
56,
666
17,7
6520
2825
,725
15,8
323,
444
6,72
218
,621
2029
26,2
4816
,045
3,51
46,
779
19,4
6820
3026
,786
16,2
583,
584
6,83
320
,302
2031
27,3
3516
,472
3,65
66,
885
21,1
16
2032
27,8
8816
,685
3,73
06,
936
21,9
1120
3328
,453
16,8
983,
805
6,98
722
,707
2034
29,0
5017
,112
3,88
17,
037
23,5
0720
3529
,657
17,3
273,
959
7,08
524
,326
2036
30,2
7017
,541
4,03
87,
133
25,1
6620
3730
,894
17,7
584,
119
7,17
826
,019
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
62.
1%0.
9%2.
0%1.
0%7.
7%20
16-1
72.
2%1.
4%1.
3%1.
0%6.
4%20
16-2
62.
2%1.
5%1.
9%0.
9%5.
9%20
16-3
72.
1%1.
4%2.
0%0.
8%4.
9%So
urce
: G
loba
l Ins
ight
web
site
, GD
P C
ompo
nent
s Ta
bles
(Int
erim
For
ecas
t, M
onth
ly)
58
TABL
E 5
U.S.
COM
MERC
IAL
AIR
CARR
IERS
1
TOTA
L SC
HEDU
LED
U.S.
PAS
SENG
ER T
RAFF
IC
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENGE
R EN
PLAN
EMEN
TS (M
illion
s)RE
VENU
E PA
SSEN
GER
MILE
S (B
illion
s)FI
SCAL
YEA
RDO
MEST
ICIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
TOTA
L D
OMES
TIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L TO
TAL
Histo
rical
2010
635
7771
255
523
178
620
1165
081
731
572
242
815
2012
654
8373
757
824
582
220
1365
485
739
584
250
834
2014
669
8875
760
025
785
720
1569
690
786
629
261
890
2016
E72
693
820
663
265
928
Fore
cast
2017
742
9683
868
427
095
420
1876
299
861
705
281
986
2019
783
103
886
726
292
1,01
820
2079
410
790
173
830
41,
042
2021
805
111
916
750
316
1,06
6
2022
815
115
931
762
327
1,09
020
2382
611
994
677
433
91,
114
2024
838
124
962
788
351
1,13
920
2585
112
897
980
236
31,
165
2026
863
132
996
816
375
1,19
1
2027
877
137
1,01
483
138
71,
218
2028
892
142
1,03
484
840
01,
248
2029
907
147
1,05
486
441
31,
277
2030
921
151
1,07
388
042
61,
306
2031
937
156
1,09
389
743
91,
336
2032
953
161
1,11
491
545
31,
367
2033
968
167
1,13
593
246
61,
399
2034
985
172
1,15
895
148
11,
432
2035
1,00
217
81,
180
970
495
1,46
520
361,
019
184
1,20
398
951
01,
499
2037
1,03
719
01,
227
1,00
952
51,
534
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
2.3%
3.2%
2.4%
3.0%
2.3%
2.8%
2016
-17
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
3.2%
1.9%
2.8%
2016
-26
1.7%
3.6%
2.0%
2.1%
3.5%
2.5%
2016
-37
1.7%
3.4%
1.9%
2.0%
3.3%
2.4%
Sour
ce: F
orms
41
and
298-
C, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
1 Sum
of U
.S. M
ainlin
e an
d Re
giona
l Air
Carri
ers.
59
TAB
LE 6
U.S
. CO
MM
ERC
IAL
AIR
CAR
RIE
RS1
SCH
EDU
LED
PAS
SEN
GER
CAP
ACIT
Y, T
RAF
FIC
, AN
D L
OAD
FAC
TOR
S
DO
MES
TIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LSY
STEM
FISC
AL Y
EAR
ASM
s (B
IL)
RPM
s (B
IL)
% L
OAD
FA
CTO
RAS
Ms
(BIL
)RP
Ms
(BIL
)%
LO
AD
FAC
TOR
ASM
s (B
IL)
RPM
s (B
IL)
% L
OAD
FA
CTO
RHi
stor
ical
2010
679
555
81.7
281
231
82.1
961
786
81.8
2011
693
572
82.5
300
242
80.7
994
815
82.0
2012
694
578
83.2
300
245
81.4
995
822
82.6
2013
700
584
83.4
303
250
82.6
1,00
383
483
.220
1471
160
084
.431
525
781
.41,
026
857
83.5
2015
744
629
84.5
323
261
80.7
1,06
789
083
.420
16E
783
663
84.7
329
265
80.6
1,11
292
883
.5
Fore
cast
2017
813
684
84.1
334
270
80.9
1,14
795
483
.220
1883
570
584
.434
728
180
.91,
182
986
83.4
2019
857
726
84.7
361
292
81.0
1,21
81,
018
83.6
2020
870
738
84.9
375
304
81.1
1,24
51,
042
83.7
2021
882
750
85.1
389
316
81.1
1,27
11,
066
83.9
2022
894
762
85.2
403
327
81.2
1,29
71,
090
84.0
2023
907
774
85.4
417
339
81.3
1,32
41,
114
84.1
2024
921
788
85.5
432
351
81.3
1,35
31,
139
84.2
2025
936
802
85.6
446
363
81.3
1,38
31,
165
84.2
2026
952
816
85.7
461
375
81.3
1,41
31,
191
84.3
2027
968
831
85.8
476
387
81.3
1,44
41,
218
84.3
2028
987
848
85.9
492
400
81.3
1,47
91,
248
84.4
2029
1,00
586
486
.050
841
381
.31,
513
1,27
784
.420
301,
023
880
86.0
524
426
81.3
1,54
71,
306
84.4
2031
1,04
289
786
.154
043
981
.31,
582
1,33
684
.5
2032
1,06
291
586
.255
745
381
.31,
618
1,36
784
.520
331,
082
932
86.2
574
466
81.3
1,65
51,
399
84.5
2034
1,10
395
186
.259
148
181
.31,
694
1,43
284
.520
351,
124
970
86.3
609
495
81.3
1,73
31,
465
84.5
2036
1,14
698
986
.362
751
081
.31,
773
1,49
984
.620
371,
169
1,00
986
.464
652
581
.31,
814
1,53
484
.6
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
62.
4%3.
0%2.
6%2.
3%2.
5%2.
8%20
16-1
73.
9%3.
2%1.
5%1.
9%3.
2%2.
8%20
16-2
62.
0%2.
1%3.
4%3.
5%2.
4%2.
5%20
16-3
71.
9%2.
0%3.
3%3.
3%2.
4%2.
4%So
urce
: For
ms
41 a
nd 2
98-C
, U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.1 Su
m o
f U.S
. Mai
nlin
e an
d Re
gion
al A
ir C
arrie
rs.
60
TAB
LE 7
U.S
. CO
MM
ERC
IAL
AIR
CA
RR
IER
S1
TOTA
L SC
HED
ULE
D U
.S. I
NTE
RN
ATI
ON
AL
PASS
ENG
ER T
RA
FFIC
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENG
ER E
NPLA
NEM
ENTS
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENG
ER M
ILES
ATLA
NTIC
LATI
N AM
ERIC
APA
CIF
ICTO
TAL
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LAT
LANT
ICLA
TIN
AMER
ICA
PAC
IFIC
TOTA
L IN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
FISC
AL Y
EAR
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
Hist
oric
al20
1025
4013
7710
963
5923
120
1125
4214
8111
267
6424
220
1225
4414
8310
870
6624
520
1325
4614
8510
775
6925
020
1425
4914
8810
880
6925
720
1525
5214
9010
783
7126
120
16E
2455
1493
105
8773
265
Fore
cast
2017
2457
1496
105
8877
270
2018
2559
1599
110
9279
281
2019
2661
1510
311
597
8129
220
2027
6416
107
119
102
8330
420
2128
6716
111
123
107
8531
6
2022
2970
1611
512
711
288
327
2023
3073
1711
913
111
790
339
2024
3076
1712
413
512
393
351
2025
3179
1812
813
912
895
363
2026
3282
1813
214
313
498
375
2027
3386
1913
714
714
010
138
720
2833
8919
142
150
146
103
400
2029
3493
2014
715
415
210
641
320
3035
9620
151
158
159
109
426
2031
3610
021
156
162
165
112
439
2032
3710
421
161
166
172
114
453
2033
3710
821
167
171
179
117
466
2034
3811
222
172
175
186
120
481
2035
3911
623
178
179
193
123
495
2036
4012
023
184
183
201
126
510
2037
4112
524
190
188
209
129
525
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
6-0
.1%
5.5%
1.4%
3.2%
-0.6
%5.
6%3.
5%2.
3%20
16-1
7-0
.3%
3.4%
2.8%
2.3%
0.1%
1.1%
5.4%
1.9%
2016
-26
2.7%
4.1%
2.6%
3.6%
3.2%
4.4%
3.0%
3.5%
2016
-37
2.5%
4.0%
2.5%
3.4%
2.8%
4.2%
2.8%
3.3%
Sour
ce: F
orm
s 41
and
298
-C, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
1 Sum
of U
.S. M
ainl
ine
and
Regi
onal
Air
Car
riers
.
61
TABL
E 8
U.S.
AND
FO
REIG
N FL
AG C
ARRI
ERS
TOTA
L PA
SSEN
GER
TRA
FFIC
TO
/FRO
M T
HE U
NITE
D ST
ATES
TOTA
L PA
SSEN
GERS
BY
WOR
LD T
RAVE
L AR
EA (M
illion
s)
CALE
NDAR
YEA
RAT
LANT
ICLA
TIN
AMER
ICA
PACI
FIC
U.S.
/CAN
ADA
TRAN
SBOR
DER
TOTA
LHi
storic
al20
1056
5327
2215
720
1158
5728
2316
620
1261
6131
2517
820
1363
6532
2618
520
1466
6934
2819
720
1570
7536
2720
720
16E
7379
3927
219
Fore
cast
2017
7783
4128
229
2018
7984
4330
235
2019
8286
4431
243
2020
8689
4632
252
2021
8992
4833
262
2022
9296
5034
273
2023
9699
5335
283
2024
9910
355
3729
420
2510
310
857
3830
520
2610
611
259
3931
6
2027
110
117
6240
328
2028
113
122
6442
340
2029
117
127
6643
353
2030
121
132
6944
366
2031
124
138
7146
379
2032
128
143
7347
392
2033
132
149
7649
406
2034
136
156
7851
421
2035
140
163
8052
436
2036
145
170
8354
451
2037
149
177
8556
467
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
4.6%
6.8%
6.6%
3.8%
5.6%
2016
-17
4.6%
5.2%
4.4%
3.8%
4.7%
2016
-26
3.7%
3.6%
4.3%
3.6%
3.8%
2016
-37
3.4%
3.9%
3.8%
3.5%
3.7%
Sour
ce:
US C
usto
ms
& Bo
rder
Pro
tect
ion
data
pro
cess
ed a
nd re
lease
d by
Dep
artm
ent o
f Com
mer
ce;
data
also
rece
ived
from
Tra
nspo
rt Ca
nad
62
TABL
E 9
U.S.
COM
MERC
IAL
AIR
CARR
IERS
' FOR
ECAS
T AS
SUMP
TION
S1
SEAT
S PE
R AI
RCRA
FT M
ILE
AND
PASS
ENGE
R TR
IP L
ENGT
H
AVER
AGE
SEAT
S PE
R AI
RCRA
FT M
ILE
AVER
AGE
PASS
ENGE
R TR
IP L
ENGT
H
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DOM
ESTI
C (S
eats/
Mile
)IN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
SYST
EM
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
DOM
ESTI
C (M
iles)
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L (M
iles)
SYST
EM
(Mile
s)Hi
storic
al20
1012
1.8
216.
413
9.7
874.
82,
988.
01,
104.
220
1112
2.5
216.
814
1.1
880.
12,
992.
71,
114.
220
1212
3.4
213.
914
1.5
883.
62,
949.
61,
116.
120
1312
4.9
214.
414
3.0
893.
62,
942.
11,
129.
520
1412
7.4
214.
814
5.6
897.
02,
917.
01,
131.
820
1513
1.5
214.
814
9.0
902.
72,
892.
31,
131.
020
16E
134.
621
4.8
151.
391
3.2
2,83
3.7
1,13
2.2
Fore
cast
2017
136.
221
5.7
152.
692
2.3
2,82
1.8
1,13
9.1
2018
137.
121
6.3
153.
692
4.7
2,83
6.0
1,14
4.6
2019
138.
021
6.6
154.
692
7.2
2,83
8.7
1,14
9.6
2020
138.
721
6.9
155.
692
9.8
2,83
8.7
1,15
6.5
2021
139.
421
7.2
156.
593
2.3
2,83
9.4
1,16
3.7
2022
140.
021
7.5
157.
493
4.8
2,83
9.4
1,17
0.8
2023
140.
621
7.8
158.
293
7.3
2,84
0.0
1,17
7.7
2024
141.
221
8.1
159.
193
9.9
2,83
6.4
1,18
4.0
2025
141.
721
8.4
159.
894
2.4
2,83
3.6
1,18
9.8
2026
142.
221
8.7
160.
694
4.9
2,82
9.7
1,19
5.7
2027
142.
821
9.0
161.
394
7.5
2,82
5.6
1,20
1.4
2028
143.
321
9.3
162.
095
0.1
2,82
1.3
1,20
6.6
2029
143.
921
9.6
162.
795
2.6
2,81
7.5
1,21
1.9
2030
144.
421
9.9
163.
495
5.2
2,81
3.1
1,21
7.4
2031
144.
922
0.2
164.
095
7.7
2,80
8.7
1,22
2.5
2032
145.
422
0.5
164.
796
0.3
2,80
4.5
1,22
7.5
2033
145.
922
0.8
165.
396
2.8
2,79
7.8
1,23
2.3
2034
146.
422
1.1
166.
096
5.4
2,79
0.4
1,23
6.9
2035
146.
922
1.4
166.
696
7.9
2,78
3.3
1,24
1.6
2036
147.
422
1.7
167.
297
0.5
2,77
6.4
1,24
6.3
2037
147.
922
2.0
167.
897
3.1
2,76
9.9
1,25
0.8
Sour
ce: F
orm
s 41
and
298
-C, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
1 Sum
of U
.S. M
ainli
ne a
nd R
egio
nal A
ir Ca
rrier
s.
63
TABL
E 10
U. S
. MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
RS
SCHE
DULE
D PA
SSEN
GER
TRAF
FIC
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENGE
R EN
PLAN
EMEN
TSRE
VENU
E PA
SSEN
GER
MIL
ES(M
illion
s)(B
illion
s)FI
SCAL
YEA
RDO
MES
TIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LSY
STEM
DOM
ESTI
CIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
SYST
EMHi
storic
al20
1047
375
548
480
230
710
2011
488
7956
749
724
173
820
1249
580
575
503
243
746
2013
498
8258
051
124
875
920
1451
585
600
527
255
782
2015
543
8763
055
625
981
520
16E
575
9066
559
026
285
2
Fore
cast
2017
589
9268
161
126
787
820
1860
695
701
629
278
907
2019
622
9972
164
829
093
720
2063
110
373
465
930
196
020
2163
910
774
766
931
398
2
2022
648
111
759
680
325
1,00
420
2365
711
677
269
133
61,
027
2024
666
120
786
702
348
1,05
020
2567
612
480
071
536
01,
075
2026
686
128
815
727
372
1,09
9
2027
697
133
830
740
384
1,12
520
2870
913
784
775
539
71,
152
2029
721
142
863
770
410
1,17
920
3073
314
788
078
442
31,
207
2031
745
152
897
799
436
1,23
5
2032
757
157
914
815
449
1,26
420
3377
016
293
283
046
31,
293
2034
783
168
951
847
477
1,32
420
3579
717
397
086
449
11,
355
2036
811
179
989
881
506
1,38
720
3782
518
51,
009
898
521
1,41
9
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
3.3%
3.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.2%
3.1%
2016
-17
2.6%
2.4%
2.6%
3.5%
1.9%
3.0%
2016
-26
1.8%
3.6%
2.1%
2.1%
3.6%
2.6%
2016
-37
1.7%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
3.3%
2.5%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
64
TAB
LE 1
1
U.S
. MAI
NLI
NE
AIR
CAR
RIE
RS
SCH
EDU
LED
PAS
SEN
GER
CAP
ACIT
Y, T
RAF
FIC
, AN
D L
OAD
FAC
TOR
S
DO
MES
TIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LSY
STEM
FISC
AL Y
EAR
ASM
s (B
IL)
RPM
s (B
IL)
% L
OAD
FA
CTO
RAS
Ms
(BIL
)RP
Ms
(BIL
)%
LO
AD
FAC
TOR
ASM
s (B
IL)
RPM
s (B
IL)
% L
OAD
FA
CTO
RHi
stor
ical
2010
581
480
82.7
279
230
82.2
860
710
82.5
2011
594
497
83.6
299
241
80.8
893
738
82.6
2012
599
503
84.1
298
243
81.5
897
746
83.2
2013
607
511
84.2
301
248
82.6
907
759
83.7
2014
620
527
85.0
313
255
81.4
933
782
83.8
2015
653
556
85.1
321
259
80.8
973
815
83.7
2016
E69
259
085
.332
526
280
.71,
017
852
83.8
Fore
cast
2017
722
611
84.6
330
267
80.9
1,05
287
883
.520
1874
162
984
.934
427
881
.01,
085
907
83.7
2019
761
648
85.1
357
290
81.0
1,11
893
783
.820
2077
265
985
.437
130
181
.11,
143
960
84.0
2021
782
669
85.6
385
313
81.2
1,16
798
284
.1
2022
793
680
85.7
399
325
81.3
1,19
21,
004
84.2
2023
804
691
85.9
413
336
81.4
1,21
81,
027
84.3
2024
817
702
86.0
428
348
81.4
1,24
41,
050
84.4
2025
830
715
86.1
442
360
81.4
1,27
21,
075
84.5
2026
843
727
86.2
457
372
81.4
1,30
01,
099
84.5
2027
858
740
86.3
472
384
81.4
1,33
01,
125
84.6
2028
874
755
86.4
488
397
81.4
1,36
21,
152
84.6
2029
890
770
86.5
503
410
81.4
1,39
41,
179
84.6
2030
906
784
86.5
519
423
81.4
1,42
51,
207
84.7
2031
923
799
86.6
535
436
81.4
1,45
81,
235
84.7
2032
940
815
86.7
552
449
81.4
1,49
21,
264
84.7
2033
958
830
86.7
569
463
81.4
1,52
61,
293
84.7
2034
976
847
86.8
586
477
81.4
1,56
21,
324
84.7
2035
995
864
86.8
604
491
81.4
1,59
91,
355
84.8
2036
1,01
488
186
.862
250
681
.41,
636
1,38
784
.820
371,
034
898
86.9
640
521
81.4
1,67
41,
419
84.8
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
63.
0%3.
5%2.
6%2.
2%-0
.3%
2.8%
3.1%
2016
-17
4.3%
3.5%
1.6%
1.9%
0.4%
3.4%
3.0%
2016
-26
2.0%
2.1%
3.5%
3.6%
0.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2016
-37
1.9%
2.0%
3.3%
3.3%
0.0%
2.4%
2.5%
Sour
ce:
Form
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
65
TABL
E 12
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
RS
SCHE
DULE
D IN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
PASS
ENGE
R EN
PLAN
EMEN
TS
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENGE
R EN
PLAN
EMEN
TS (M
IL)
FISC
AL Y
EAR
ATLA
NTIC
LATI
N AM
ERIC
APA
CIFI
CTO
TAL
Histo
rical
2010
24.5
37.2
12.9
74.6
2011
25.3
39.8
13.5
78.6
2012
24.8
41.0
14.0
79.9
2013
24.8
43.0
14.4
82.2
2014
25.0
46.2
14.0
85.1
2015
24.6
48.6
14.0
87.2
2016
E24
.451
.514
.089
.9
Fore
cast
2017
24.3
53.3
14.4
92.1
2018
25.5
55.1
14.8
95.4
2019
26.4
57.7
15.2
99.3
2020
27.2
60.4
15.6
103.
220
2128
.163
.216
.010
7.3
2022
28.9
66.1
16.4
111.
420
2329
.769
.016
.811
5.5
2024
30.4
72.1
17.3
119.
820
2531
.175
.117
.712
4.0
2026
31.9
78.3
18.2
128.
3
2027
32.6
81.6
18.6
132.
920
2833
.485
.019
.113
7.5
2029
34.2
88.4
19.6
142.
220
3035
.091
.920
.114
7.0
2031
35.8
95.5
20.5
151.
9
2032
36.6
99.2
21.0
156.
820
3337
.410
3.1
21.5
162.
120
3438
.310
7.2
22.0
167.
520
3539
.211
1.4
22.5
173.
120
3640
.211
5.6
23.0
178.
820
3741
.111
9.9
23.6
184.
6
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-0.1
%5.
6%1.
4%3.
2%20
16-1
7-0
.3%
3.6%
2.8%
2.4%
2016
-26
2.7%
4.3%
2.6%
3.6%
2016
-37
2.5%
4.1%
2.5%
3.5%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
66
TABL
E 13
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
RS
SCHE
DULE
D PA
SSEN
GER
CAPA
CITY
, TRA
FFIC
, AND
LOA
D FA
CTOR
SBY
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L TR
AVEL
REG
IONS
ATLA
NTIC
LATI
N AM
ERIC
APA
CIFI
CIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
FISC
AL Y
EAR
ASMs
(B
IL)
RPMs
(B
IL)
% L
OAD
FACT
ORAS
Ms
(BIL
)RP
Ms
(BIL
)%
LOA
D FA
CTOR
ASMs
(B
IL)
RPMs
(B
IL)
% L
OAD
FACT
ORAS
Ms
(BIL
)RP
Ms
(BIL
)%
LOA
D FA
CTOR
Histo
rical
2010
131
109
82.9
7862
79.2
7059
84.1
279
230
82.2
2011
138
112
80.7
8266
79.9
7864
81.8
299
241
80.8
2012
132
108
81.5
8568
80.9
8166
82.0
298
243
81.5
2013
128
107
83.3
9073
81.1
8369
83.1
301
248
82.6
2014
132
108
81.7
9778
80.6
8469
82.0
313
255
81.4
2015
133
107
80.0
101
8180
.386
7182
.532
125
980
.820
16E
134
105
78.0
104
8581
.487
7383
.932
526
280
.7
Fore
cast
2017
133
105
78.9
105
8681
.692
7783
.233
026
780
.920
1814
011
079
.010
989
81.6
9579
83.2
344
278
81.0
2019
145
115
79.2
115
9481
.697
8183
.235
729
081
.020
2015
011
979
.412
199
81.6
100
8383
.237
130
181
.120
2115
512
379
.612
710
481
.610
385
83.2
385
313
81.2
2022
160
127
79.8
134
109
81.6
106
8883
.239
932
581
.320
2316
413
180
.014
011
581
.610
990
83.2
413
336
81.4
2024
169
135
80.0
147
120
81.6
112
9383
.242
834
881
.420
2517
413
980
.015
412
581
.611
595
83.2
442
360
81.4
2026
178
143
80.0
161
131
81.6
118
9883
.245
737
281
.4
2027
183
147
80.0
168
137
81.6
121
101
83.2
472
384
81.4
2028
188
150
80.0
175
143
81.6
124
103
83.2
488
397
81.4
2029
193
154
80.0
183
149
81.6
128
106
83.2
503
410
81.4
2030
198
158
80.0
190
155
81.6
131
109
83.2
519
423
81.4
2031
203
162
80.0
198
162
81.6
134
112
83.2
535
436
81.4
2032
208
166
80.0
207
168
81.6
137
114
83.2
552
449
81.4
2033
213
171
80.0
215
175
81.6
141
117
83.2
569
463
81.4
2034
218
175
80.0
224
182
81.6
144
120
83.2
586
477
81.4
2035
224
179
80.0
233
190
81.6
148
123
83.2
604
491
81.4
2036
229
183
80.0
242
197
81.6
151
126
83.2
622
506
81.4
2037
235
188
80.0
251
205
81.6
155
129
83.2
640
521
81.4
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
0.4%
-0.6
%4.
9%5.
4%3.
7%3.
6%2.
6%2.
2%20
16-1
7-0
.9%
-0.2
%1.
3%1.
0%5.
8%4.
9%1.
6%1.
9%20
16-2
62.
9%3.
1%4.
4%4.
4%3.
1%3.
0%3.
5%3.
6%20
16-3
72.
7%2.
8%4.
3%4.
3%2.
8%2.
7%3.
3%3.
3%So
urce
: For
m 41
, U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
67
TABL
E 14
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
R FO
RECA
ST A
SSUM
PTIO
NS
SEAT
S PE
R AI
RCRA
FT M
ILE
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DOM
ESTI
C (S
eats/
Mile
)AT
LANT
IC
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
LATI
N AM
ERIC
A (S
eats/
Mile
)PA
CIFI
C (S
eats/
Mile
)TO
TAL
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
SYST
EM
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
Histo
rical
2010
152.
023
1.7
171.
728
7.2
220.
916
9.2
2011
152.
323
0.5
173.
228
2.9
221.
017
0.0
2012
152.
723
0.4
171.
827
8.3
219.
416
9.9
2013
153.
923
3.3
171.
827
6.2
219.
217
0.8
2014
155.
523
6.1
173.
027
6.2
219.
717
2.4
2015
157.
723
7.0
173.
927
2.1
219.
517
3.8
2016
E15
9.8
241.
717
4.1
266.
621
9.8
175.
1
Fore
cast
2017
160.
424
2.2
174.
626
7.3
220.
617
5.4
2018
161.
124
2.7
175.
126
8.1
221.
117
6.2
2019
161.
724
3.2
175.
626
8.8
221.
417
6.9
2020
162.
324
3.7
176.
126
9.6
221.
517
7.7
2021
162.
924
4.2
176.
627
0.3
221.
717
8.5
2022
163.
524
4.7
177.
127
1.1
221.
917
9.3
2023
164.
024
5.2
177.
627
1.8
222.
118
0.0
2024
164.
624
5.7
178.
127
2.6
222.
318
0.7
2025
165.
124
6.2
178.
627
3.3
222.
618
1.4
2026
165.
624
6.7
179.
127
4.1
222.
818
2.0
2027
166.
124
7.2
179.
627
4.8
223.
118
2.6
2028
166.
624
7.7
180.
127
5.6
223.
318
3.2
2029
167.
024
8.2
180.
627
6.3
223.
518
3.8
2030
167.
524
8.7
181.
127
7.1
223.
818
4.4
2031
167.
924
9.2
181.
627
7.8
224.
018
4.9
2032
168.
324
9.7
182.
127
8.6
224.
318
5.4
2033
168.
725
0.2
182.
627
9.3
224.
518
5.9
2034
169.
125
0.7
183.
128
0.1
224.
818
6.4
2035
169.
525
1.2
183.
628
0.8
225.
018
7.0
2036
169.
925
1.7
184.
128
1.6
225.
318
7.5
2037
170.
425
2.2
184.
628
2.3
225.
618
8.0
Sour
ce: F
orm
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
68
TAB
LE 1
5
U.S
. MAI
NLI
NE
AIR
CAR
RIE
R F
OR
ECAS
T AS
SUM
PTIO
NS
AVER
AGE
PASS
ENG
ER T
RIP
LEN
GTH
INTE
RNAT
IONA
L
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DO
MES
TIC
(M
iles)
ATLA
NTIC
(M
iles)
LATI
N AM
ERIC
A (M
iles)
PAC
IFIC
(M
iles)
TOTA
L (M
iles)
SYST
EM
(Mile
s)Hi
stor
ical
2010
1,01
54,
433
1,66
04,
587
3,07
71,
296
2011
1,01
74,
415
1,65
54,
707
3,06
81,
301
2012
1,01
74,
356
1,66
84,
725
3,04
01,
298
2013
1,02
64,
313
1,69
34,
774
3,02
31,
309
2014
1,02
44,
321
1,69
64,
910
2,99
31,
303
2015
1,02
34,
336
1,66
95,
080
2,96
91,
292
2016
E1,
027
4,29
11,
650
5,17
62,
917
1,28
3
Fore
cast
2017
1,03
64,
311
1,61
15,
303
2,90
31,
288
2018
1,03
94,
332
1,61
95,
316
2,91
71,
294
2019
1,04
14,
354
1,62
75,
328
2,91
91,
300
2020
1,04
44,
376
1,63
55,
340
2,91
71,
307
2021
1,04
74,
393
1,64
45,
351
2,91
51,
315
2022
1,04
94,
411
1,65
25,
362
2,91
31,
323
2023
1,05
24,
428
1,66
05,
372
2,91
21,
330
2024
1,05
44,
446
1,66
45,
381
2,90
71,
337
2025
1,05
74,
464
1,66
85,
391
2,90
21,
343
2026
1,06
04,
477
1,67
35,
399
2,89
71,
349
2027
1,06
24,
491
1,67
75,
407
2,89
11,
355
2028
1,06
54,
504
1,68
15,
415
2,88
61,
361
2029
1,06
84,
518
1,68
55,
422
2,88
01,
366
2030
1,07
04,
527
1,68
95,
428
2,87
51,
372
2031
1,07
34,
536
1,69
45,
434
2,86
91,
377
2032
1,07
64,
545
1,69
85,
440
2,86
41,
382
2033
1,07
84,
554
1,69
95,
445
2,85
61,
387
2034
1,08
14,
559
1,70
15,
449
2,84
71,
392
2035
1,08
44,
563
1,70
35,
453
2,83
91,
397
2036
1,08
74,
568
1,70
55,
456
2,83
11,
402
2037
1,08
94,
572
1,70
65,
459
2,82
31,
406
Sour
ce: F
orm
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
69
TABL
E 16
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
R FO
RECA
ST A
SSUM
PTIO
NS
PASS
ENGE
R YI
ELDS
REVE
NUE
PER
PASS
ENGE
R MI
LE
DOME
STIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LSY
STEM
FISC
AL Y
EAR
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
Histo
rical
2010
12.6
213
.87
12.8
414
.11
12.6
913
.95
2011
13.6
214
.59
14.0
915
.09
13.7
714
.75
2012
14.0
814
.73
14.7
415
.41
14.3
014
.95
2013
14.4
214
.83
14.8
015
.23
14.5
414
.96
2014
15.1
115
.30
14.9
415
.12
15.0
615
.24
2015
14.7
914
.93
14.1
614
.29
14.5
914
.72
2016
E13
.96
13.9
612
.88
12.8
813
.62
13.6
2
Fore
cast
2017
14.0
313
.70
13.0
812
.78
13.7
413
.42
2018
14.2
913
.68
13.2
812
.71
13.9
813
.38
2019
14.6
813
.72
13.5
112
.63
14.3
213
.39
2020
15.1
313
.78
13.7
912
.56
14.7
113
.40
2021
15.5
813
.82
14.0
712
.48
15.1
013
.39
2022
16.0
213
.84
14.3
612
.41
15.4
913
.38
2023
16.4
713
.84
14.6
712
.33
15.8
813
.35
2024
16.9
013
.82
14.9
812
.25
16.2
613
.30
2025
17.3
213
.79
15.2
912
.17
16.6
413
.25
2026
17.7
213
.74
15.6
012
.10
17.0
013
.19
2027
18.0
913
.68
15.9
012
.02
17.3
513
.11
2028
18.4
213
.60
16.1
911
.95
17.6
513
.03
2029
18.7
413
.52
16.4
711
.88
17.9
512
.95
2030
19.0
713
.43
16.7
611
.81
18.2
612
.86
2031
19.4
113
.35
17.0
711
.74
18.5
812
.78
2032
19.7
613
.27
17.3
711
.67
18.9
112
.70
2033
20.1
113
.19
17.6
711
.59
19.2
412
.62
2034
20.4
713
.11
17.9
911
.52
19.5
812
.54
2035
20.8
413
.03
18.3
011
.44
19.9
212
.45
2036
21.2
112
.95
18.6
211
.37
20.2
712
.37
2037
21.5
912
.87
18.9
511
.30
20.6
212
.29
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.7%
0.1%
0.1%
-1.5
%1.
2%-0
.4%
2016
-17
0.5%
-1.8
%1.
6%-0
.8%
0.9%
-1.5
%20
16-2
62.
4%-0
.2%
1.9%
-0.6
%2.
2%-0
.3%
2016
-37
2.1%
-0.4
%1.
9%-0
.6%
2.0%
-0.5
%So
urce
: For
m 41
, U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
70
TABL
E 17
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
R FO
RECA
ST A
SSUM
PTIO
NSIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
PASS
ENGE
R YI
ELDS
BY
REGI
ON
REVE
NUE
PER
PASS
ENGE
R MI
LEAT
LANT
ICLA
TIN
AMER
ICA
PACI
FIC
TOTA
L IN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
FISC
AL Y
EAR
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
Histo
rical
2010
12.7
314
.00
13.3
314
.65
12.5
013
.74
12.8
414
.11
2011
13.4
814
.44
15.1
316
.21
14.0
715
.07
14.0
915
.09
2012
13.9
514
.58
15.7
916
.51
14.9
515
.63
14.7
415
.41
2013
14.4
514
.86
15.8
016
.25
14.3
014
.71
14.8
015
.23
2014
14.8
415
.02
15.7
615
.96
14.1
514
.32
14.9
415
.12
2015
14.6
414
.77
14.3
814
.51
13.2
013
.32
14.1
614
.29
2016
E13
.83
13.8
312
.72
12.7
211
.69
11.6
912
.88
12.8
8
Fore
cast
2017
14.0
813
.76
12.9
012
.60
11.9
011
.62
13.0
812
.78
2018
14.3
113
.69
13.0
712
.51
12.0
911
.57
13.2
812
.71
2019
14.5
713
.62
13.2
712
.40
12.3
011
.50
13.5
112
.63
2020
14.8
813
.55
13.5
112
.30
12.5
611
.44
13.7
912
.56
2021
15.2
013
.49
13.7
612
.20
12.8
211
.37
14.0
712
.48
2022
15.5
313
.42
14.0
112
.11
13.0
911
.31
14.3
612
.41
2023
15.8
813
.35
14.2
912
.01
13.3
811
.25
14.6
712
.33
2024
16.2
413
.28
14.5
611
.91
13.6
711
.19
14.9
812
.25
2025
16.6
013
.22
14.8
311
.81
13.9
811
.13
15.2
912
.17
2026
16.9
613
.15
15.1
111
.72
14.2
811
.07
15.6
012
.10
2027
17.3
113
.09
15.3
711
.62
14.5
811
.02
15.9
012
.02
2028
17.6
413
.02
15.6
211
.54
14.8
510
.96
16.1
911
.95
2029
17.9
612
.96
15.8
711
.45
15.1
310
.91
16.4
711
.88
2030
18.3
012
.89
16.1
311
.37
15.4
210
.86
16.7
611
.81
2031
18.6
412
.83
16.4
211
.29
15.7
210
.81
17.0
711
.74
2032
19.0
012
.76
16.6
711
.20
16.0
210
.76
17.3
711
.67
2033
19.3
612
.70
16.9
311
.10
16.3
410
.71
17.6
711
.59
2034
19.7
312
.63
17.1
911
.01
16.6
510
.66
17.9
911
.52
2035
20.1
112
.57
17.4
510
.91
16.9
810
.62
18.3
011
.44
2036
20.4
912
.51
17.7
210
.82
17.3
110
.57
18.6
211
.37
2037
20.8
812
.45
18.0
010
.73
17.6
410
.52
18.9
511
.30
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.4%
-0.2
%-0
.8%
-2.3
%-1
.1%
-2.7
%0.
1%-1
.5%
2016
-17
1.8%
-0.5
%1.
5%-0
.9%
1.8%
-0.6
%1.
6%-0
.8%
2016
-26
2.1%
-0.5
%1.
7%-0
.8%
2.0%
-0.5
%1.
9%-0
.6%
2016
-37
2.0%
-0.5
%1.
7%-0
.8%
2.0%
-0.5
%1.
9%-0
.6%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
71
TABL
E 18
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
R FO
RECA
ST A
SSUM
PTIO
NS
JET
FUEL
PRI
CES
DOM
ESTI
CIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
SYST
EM
FISC
AL Y
EAR
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
CURR
ENT
$
(Cen
ts)FY
201
6 $
(C
ents)
Histo
rical
2010
219.
1624
0.87
220.
1224
1.93
219.
4924
1.23
2011
289.
3230
9.89
288.
1030
8.58
288.
8730
9.41
2012
314.
5632
8.93
309.
5232
3.66
312.
6432
6.92
2013
308.
9131
7.82
299.
3930
8.03
305.
2431
4.05
2014
300.
7030
4.44
292.
5629
6.21
297.
6130
1.31
2015
207.
2920
9.21
211.
7721
3.73
208.
9621
0.90
2016
E14
6.17
146.
1714
7.01
147.
0114
6.47
146.
47
Fore
cast
2017
157.
2215
3.58
158.
1315
4.47
157.
5515
3.90
2018
179.
1117
1.39
180.
1417
2.38
179.
4717
1.75
2019
202.
6618
9.45
203.
8219
0.54
203.
0718
9.84
2020
227.
5920
7.29
228.
9020
8.48
228.
0620
7.71
2021
257.
8322
8.69
259.
3223
0.00
258.
3622
9.16
2022
284.
9124
6.13
286.
5524
7.54
285.
5024
6.63
2023
309.
6326
0.25
311.
4126
1.74
310.
2726
0.78
2024
338.
2227
6.67
340.
1727
8.26
338.
9227
7.24
2025
362.
4428
8.61
364.
5229
0.27
363.
1928
9.21
2026
377.
0529
2.43
379.
2129
4.11
377.
8229
3.03
2027
387.
2529
2.77
389.
4829
4.45
388.
0529
3.37
2028
396.
4429
2.70
398.
7229
4.38
397.
2629
3.30
2029
405.
3829
2.39
407.
7129
4.07
406.
2129
2.99
2030
414.
4629
2.01
416.
8429
3.69
415.
3129
2.61
2031
423.
8429
1.58
426.
2829
3.25
424.
7129
2.18
2032
433.
4929
1.17
435.
9829
2.84
434.
3829
1.77
2033
443.
3729
0.79
445.
9229
2.46
444.
2829
1.39
2034
453.
5329
0.41
456.
1429
2.08
454.
4629
1.01
2035
463.
9329
0.08
466.
5929
1.74
464.
8829
0.67
2036
474.
5528
9.73
477.
2829
1.40
475.
5329
0.33
2037
485.
4628
9.42
488.
2529
1.08
486.
4629
0.01
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-6.5
%-8
.0%
-6.5
%-8
.0%
-6.5
%-8
.0%
2016
-17
7.6%
5.1%
7.6%
5.1%
7.6%
5.1%
2016
-26
9.9%
7.2%
9.9%
7.2%
9.9%
7.2%
2016
-37
5.9%
3.3%
5.9%
3.3%
5.9%
3.3%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n
72
TABL
E 19
U.S.
COM
MERC
IAL
AIR
CARR
IERS
AIR
CARG
O RE
VENU
E TO
N MI
LES1,
2, 3
ALL-
CARG
O CA
RRIE
R RT
MS
PA
SSEN
GER
CARR
IER
RTM
STO
TAL
RTM
SFI
SCAL
(Milli
ons)
(Milli
ons)
(Milli
ons)
YEAR
DOM
ESTI
CIN
T'L.
TOTA
LDO
MES
TIC
INT'L
.TO
TAL
DOM
ESTI
CIN
T'L.
TOTA
LHi
storic
al20
1011
,243
16,7
3327
,976
1,58
06,
332
7,91
212
,823
23,0
6535
,888
2011
10,6
0118
,980
29,5
811,
446
6,25
07,
696
12,0
4725
,230
37,2
7720
1210
,886
18,3
1029
,196
1,40
95,
952
7,36
112
,295
24,2
6236
,557
2013
10,9
9616
,741
27,7
371,
381
5,70
07,
080
12,3
7722
,441
34,8
1820
1411
,226
15,8
9027
,115
1,44
16,
614
8,05
412
,666
22,5
0335
,169
2015
11,6
3616
,008
27,6
431,
453
6,70
48,
157
13,0
8922
,712
35,8
0120
16E
11,8
5115
,687
27,5
381,
469
6,47
67,
944
13,3
2022
,163
35,4
83
Fore
cast
2017
12,0
5915
,954
28,0
131,
483
6,49
17,
974
13,5
4222
,444
35,9
8620
1812
,446
16,5
4428
,990
1,51
96,
633
8,15
213
,965
23,1
7737
,142
2019
12,8
1317
,149
29,9
621,
552
6,77
58,
326
14,3
6523
,924
38,2
8820
2013
,013
17,7
7630
,788
1,56
36,
919
8,48
314
,576
24,6
9539
,271
2021
13,2
6918
,556
31,8
251,
582
7,11
68,
698
14,8
5125
,672
40,5
23
2022
13,4
9919
,431
32,9
301,
597
7,34
08,
937
15,0
9626
,771
41,8
6720
2313
,702
20,3
3734
,038
1,60
87,
567
9,17
515
,309
27,9
0443
,213
2024
13,8
4221
,255
35,0
961,
611
7,78
99,
400
15,4
5329
,044
44,4
9720
2513
,943
22,1
6736
,110
1,61
08,
000
9,61
015
,553
30,1
6745
,720
2026
13,9
9223
,139
37,1
311,
603
8,22
29,
825
15,5
9531
,361
46,9
56
2027
14,0
8924
,209
38,2
981,
600
8,47
010
,071
15,6
8932
,679
48,3
6920
2814
,287
25,3
5739
,644
1,61
08,
734
10,3
4315
,897
34,0
9149
,988
2029
14,4
5226
,521
40,9
731,
615
8,99
110
,606
16,0
6635
,512
51,5
7920
3014
,620
27,7
3742
,357
1,62
09,
255
10,8
7516
,240
36,9
9253
,232
2031
14,8
0128
,988
43,7
891,
627
9,51
811
,145
16,4
2738
,507
54,9
34
2032
14,9
6630
,266
45,2
321,
631
9,77
811
,409
16,5
9740
,045
56,6
4220
3315
,114
31,5
9746
,711
1,63
310
,043
11,6
7616
,748
41,6
4058
,388
2034
15,3
2333
,025
48,3
471,
641
10,3
2511
,967
16,9
6443
,350
60,3
1420
3515
,521
34,5
0950
,030
1,64
810
,612
12,2
6017
,169
45,1
2162
,290
2036
15,7
1636
,044
51,7
601,
655
10,9
0012
,554
17,3
7146
,943
64,3
1420
3715
,890
37,6
3653
,526
1,65
911
,190
12,8
4917
,548
48,8
2666
,374
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
0.9%
-1.1
%-0
.3%
-1.2
%0.
4%0.
1%0.
6%-0
.7%
-0.2
%20
16-1
71.
8%1.
7%1.
7%1.
0%0.
2%0.
4%1.
7%1.
3%1.
4%20
16-2
61.
7%4.
0%3.
0%0.
9%2.
4%2.
1%1.
6%3.
5%2.
8%20
16-3
71.
4%4.
3%3.
2%0.
6%2.
6%2.
3%1.
3%3.
8%3.
0%So
urce
: For
m 4
1, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion
1 Inclu
des
freig
ht/e
xpre
ss a
nd m
ail r
even
ue to
n m
iles
on m
ainli
ne a
ir ca
rrier
s an
d re
gion
als/c
omm
uter
s.2 Do
mes
tic fi
gure
s fro
m 2
000
thro
ugh
2002
exc
lude
Airb
orne
Exp
ress
, Inc
.; in
tern
atio
nal f
igur
es fo
r 200
3 an
d be
yond
inclu
de n
ew
repo
rting
of c
ontra
ct s
ervic
e by
U.S
. car
riers
for f
orei
gn fl
ag c
arrie
rs.
3 Dom
estic
figu
res
from
200
3 an
d be
yond
inclu
de A
irbor
ne E
xpre
ss. I
nc.
73
TABL
E 20
U.S.
COM
MERC
IAL
AIR
CARR
IERS
INT
ERNA
TION
AL A
IR C
ARGO
REV
ENUE
TON
MIL
ES B
Y RE
GION
1, 2
ATLA
NTIC
LATI
N AM
ERIC
APA
CIFI
COT
HER
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LTO
TAL
FISC
AL Y
EAR
(MIL
LION
S)(M
ILLI
ONS)
(MIL
LION
S)(M
ILLI
ONS)
(MIL
LION
S)Hi
storic
al20
106,
865
1,99
18,
348
5,86
023
,065
2011
7,23
61,
832
9,10
57,
057
25,2
3020
127,
026
1,87
08,
569
6,79
724
,262
2013
6,66
21,
789
8,18
45,
806
22,4
4120
146,
887
1,74
08,
429
5,44
722
,503
2015
6,66
91,
639
9,02
15,
383
22,7
1220
16E
6,60
11,
566
8,76
15,
253
22,1
81
Fore
cast
2017
6,61
31,
569
9,03
35,
229
22,4
4420
186,
694
1,60
69,
590
5,28
723
,177
2019
6,79
91,
637
10,0
985,
389
23,9
2420
206,
927
1,65
910
,580
5,52
924
,695
2021
7,08
41,
680
11,1
935,
714
25,6
72
2022
7,26
11,
704
11,8
695,
937
26,7
7120
237,
448
1,72
112
,547
6,18
727
,904
2024
7,64
21,
732
13,2
056,
465
29,0
4420
257,
840
1,73
513
,829
6,76
330
,167
2026
8,04
61,
739
14,4
917,
085
31,3
61
2027
8,26
51,
750
15,2
317,
434
32,6
7920
288,
495
1,76
516
,028
7,80
434
,091
2029
8,73
01,
776
16,8
148,
193
35,5
1220
308,
974
1,78
917
,628
8,60
136
,992
2031
9,22
41,
802
18,4
549,
027
38,5
07
2032
9,48
01,
813
19,2
819,
470
40,0
4520
339,
743
1,82
520
,137
9,93
641
,640
2034
10,0
171,
841
21,0
6510
,427
43,3
5020
3510
,298
1,85
722
,021
10,9
4445
,121
2036
10,5
861,
872
22,9
9711
,489
46,9
4320
3710
,881
1,88
623
,998
12,0
6148
,826
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-0.7
%-3
.9%
0.8%
-1.8
%-0
.6%
2016
-17
0.2%
0.2%
3.1%
-0.5
%1.
2%20
16-2
62.
0%1.
1%5.
2%3.
0%3.
5%20
16-3
72.
4%0.
9%4.
9%4.
0%3.
8%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n1 In
clude
s fre
ight
/exp
ress
and
mai
l rev
enue
ton
mile
s on
mai
nline
air
carri
ers
and
regi
onals
/com
mut
ers.
2 Figu
res
for 2
003
and
beyo
nd in
clude
new
repo
rting
of c
ontra
ct s
ervic
e by
U.S
. car
riers
for f
orei
gn fl
ag c
arrie
rs.
74
TABL
E 21
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
RS
PASS
ENGE
R JE
T AI
RCRA
FT
LARG
E NA
RROW
BODY
LARG
E W
IDEB
ODY
LARG
ERE
GION
ALTO
TAL
CALE
NDAR
YEA
R2
ENGI
NE3
ENGI
NE4
ENGI
NETO
TAL
2 EN
GINE
3 EN
GINE
4 EN
GINE
TOTA
LJE
TSJE
TSJE
TSHi
storic
al20
103,
120
81
3,12
947
09
4352
23,
651
713,
722
2011
3,12
77
13,
135
471
741
519
3,65
476
3,73
020
123,
123
70
3,13
048
03
4052
33,
653
823,
735
2013
3,15
95
03,
164
482
040
522
3,68
693
3,77
920
143,
224
20
3,22
647
50
3751
23,
738
983,
836
2015
3,31
92
03,
321
492
031
523
3,84
499
3,94
320
16E
3,45
72
03,
459
490
022
512
3,97
197
4,06
8
Fore
cast
2017
3,38
92
03,
391
506
09
515
3,90
610
04,
006
2018
3,44
22
03,
444
523
00
523
3,96
790
4,05
720
193,
476
20
3,47
853
70
053
74,
015
804,
095
2020
3,51
02
03,
512
564
00
564
4,07
680
4,15
620
213,
525
20
3,52
758
60
058
64,
113
824,
195
2022
3,55
51
03,
556
604
00
604
4,16
085
4,24
520
233,
584
00
3,58
461
60
061
64,
200
884,
288
2024
3,61
40
03,
614
625
00
625
4,23
991
4,33
020
253,
650
00
3,65
063
50
063
54,
285
954,
380
2026
3,67
90
03,
679
647
00
647
4,32
699
4,42
5
2027
3,71
30
03,
713
661
00
661
4,37
410
24,
476
2028
3,74
10
03,
741
673
00
673
4,41
410
24,
516
2029
3,78
40
03,
784
684
00
684
4,46
810
24,
570
2030
3,85
10
03,
851
697
00
697
4,54
810
04,
648
2031
3,89
70
03,
897
719
00
719
4,61
610
04,
716
2032
3,95
00
03,
950
748
00
748
4,69
810
04,
798
2033
4,00
60
04,
006
773
00
773
4,77
910
04,
879
2034
4,07
40
04,
074
794
00
794
4,86
810
04,
968
2035
4,12
90
04,
129
819
00
819
4,94
810
05,
048
2036
4,17
60
04,
176
844
00
844
5,02
010
05,
120
2037
4,23
20
04,
232
867
00
867
5,09
910
05,
199
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.7%
-20.
6%N/
A1.
7%0.
7%N/
A-1
0.6%
-0.3
%1.
4%5.
3%1.
5%20
16-1
7-2
.0%
0.0%
N/A
-2.0
%3.
3%N/
A-5
9.1%
0.6%
-1.6
%3.
1%-1
.5%
2016
-26
0.6%
N/A
N/A
0.6%
2.8%
N/A
N/A
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
0.8%
2016
-37
1.0%
N/A
N/A
1.0%
2.8%
N/A
N/A
2.5%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
75
TABL
E 22
U.S.
MAI
NLIN
E AI
R CA
RRIE
RS
CAR
GO J
ET A
IRCR
AFT
LARG
E NA
RROW
BODY
LARG
E W
IDEB
ODY
CALE
NDAR
YEA
R2
ENGI
NE3
ENGI
NE4
ENGI
NETO
TAL
2 EN
GINE
3 EN
GINE
4 EN
GINE
TOTA
LTO
TAL
Histo
rical
2010
153
104
3128
826
520
097
562
850
2011
176
8926
291
281
203
9658
087
120
1218
767
1226
629
218
893
573
839
2013
192
192
213
296
175
6453
574
820
1421
518
223
529
417
069
533
768
2015
228
222
252
309
156
7253
778
920
16E
235
192
256
328
149
7755
481
0
Fore
cast
2017
237
192
258
336
138
7855
281
020
1823
619
225
734
412
578
547
804
2019
239
192
260
362
112
7855
281
220
2024
219
226
337
810
079
557
820
2021
243
182
263
391
9782
570
833
2022
248
152
265
399
9785
581
846
2023
249
142
265
410
9786
593
858
2024
251
132
266
419
9885
602
868
2025
253
122
267
426
9885
609
876
2026
256
91
266
434
9886
618
884
2027
261
40
265
448
9488
630
895
2028
262
20
264
460
9088
638
902
2029
263
10
264
475
8691
652
916
2030
265
00
265
494
8092
666
931
2031
266
00
266
508
7395
676
942
2032
267
00
267
530
6797
694
961
2033
267
00
267
547
6110
070
897
520
3426
80
026
856
955
101
725
993
2035
269
00
269
587
4910
574
11,
010
2036
269
00
269
609
4310
775
91,
028
2037
269
00
269
627
3910
977
51,
044
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
7.4%
-24.
7%N/
A-1
.9%
3.6%
-4.8
%-3
.8%
-0.2
%-0
.8%
2016
-17
0.9%
0.0%
N/A
0.8%
2.4%
-7.4
%1.
3%-0
.4%
0.0%
2016
-26
0.9%
N/A
N/A
0.4%
2.8%
-4.1
%1.
1%1.
1%0.
9%20
16-3
70.
6%N/
AN/
A0.
2%3.
1%-6
.2%
1.7%
1.6%
1.2%
76
TABL
E 23
TOTA
L JE
T FU
EL A
ND A
VIAT
ION
GASO
LINE
FUE
L CO
NSUM
PTIO
NU.
S. C
IVIL
AVI
ATIO
N AI
RCRA
FT(M
illion
s of
Gall
ons)
JET
FUEL
AVIA
TION
GAS
OLIN
ETO
TAL
U.S.
AIR
CAR
RIER
S1, 2
GENE
RAL
AIR
GENE
RAL
FUEL
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DOM
ESTI
CIN
T'L.
TOTA
LAV
IATI
ONTO
TAL
CARR
IER
AVIA
TION
TOTA
LCO
NSUM
EDHi
storic
al20
1011
,973
6,29
018
,263
1,43
519
,698
222
122
319
,921
2011
12,0
926,
547
18,6
391,
456
20,0
952
216
218
20,3
1320
1212
,124
6,59
518
,720
1,43
520
,155
220
620
820
,363
2013
12,0
446,
418
18,4
611,
260
19,7
212
197
199
19,9
2020
1412
,167
6,34
818
,514
1,46
619
,981
221
021
220
,192
2015
12,6
826,
481
19,1
631,
383
20,5
452
196
198
20,7
4320
16E
13,3
376,
363
19,6
991,
471
21,1
702
208
210
21,3
80
Fore
cast
2017
13,7
156,
397
20,1
121,
541
21,6
532
203
205
21,8
5920
1813
,942
6,59
420
,536
1,59
422
,130
220
020
222
,332
2019
14,1
716,
789
20,9
601,
646
22,6
062
198
200
22,8
0620
2014
,242
6,97
621
,218
1,69
822
,916
219
719
923
,114
2021
14,2
927,
164
21,4
561,
744
23,2
002
195
197
23,3
97
2022
14,3
497,
353
21,7
021,
781
23,4
842
194
196
23,6
8020
2314
,411
7,53
721
,948
1,81
223
,760
219
319
523
,956
2024
14,4
867,
723
22,2
101,
841
24,0
512
193
195
24,2
4620
2514
,583
7,90
222
,485
1,86
924
,354
219
319
524
,549
2026
14,6
728,
082
22,7
541,
896
24,6
492
192
194
24,8
43
2027
14,7
778,
266
23,0
431,
922
24,9
652
191
193
25,1
5820
2814
,915
8,45
323
,368
1,95
225
,320
219
119
325
,513
2029
15,0
418,
637
23,6
781,
983
25,6
602
190
192
25,8
5220
3015
,157
8,82
223
,979
2,01
025
,990
219
019
226
,182
2031
15,2
869,
007
24,2
942,
038
26,3
322
190
192
26,5
24
2032
15,4
219,
192
24,6
132,
067
26,6
802
190
192
26,8
7220
3315
,555
9,37
724
,932
2,09
427
,026
219
019
227
,218
2034
15,7
029,
568
25,2
702,
120
27,3
902
189
191
27,5
8120
3515
,849
9,75
925
,608
2,14
727
,755
218
919
127
,946
2036
15,9
989,
951
25,9
492,
175
28,1
242
189
191
28,3
1620
3716
,149
10,1
4426
,293
2,20
428
,497
219
019
228
,689
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.8%
0.2%
1.3%
0.4%
1.2%
0.0%
-1.0
%-1
.0%
1.2%
2016
-17
2.8%
0.5%
2.1%
4.8%
2.3%
0.0%
-2.2
%-2
.1%
2.2%
2016
-26
1.0%
2.4%
1.5%
2.6%
1.5%
0.0%
-0.8
%-0
.8%
1.5%
2016
-37
0.9%
2.2%
1.4%
1.9%
1.4%
0.0%
-0.4
%-0
.4%
1.4%
Sour
ce:
Air c
arrie
r jet
fuel,
For
m 4
1, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion;
all o
thers
, FAA
APO
esti
mate
s.1 In
clude
s bo
th pa
ssen
ger (
main
line
and
regio
nal a
ir ca
rrier
) and
car
go c
arrie
rs.
2 Fore
cast
assu
mes
1.0
% a
nnua
l impr
ovem
ent i
n av
ailab
le se
at m
iles
per g
allon
for U
.S. C
omm
erci
al Ai
r Car
rier
77
TABL
E 24
U.S.
REG
IONA
L CA
RRIE
R FO
RECA
ST A
SSUM
PTIO
NS
REVE
NUE
PER
AVER
AGE
SEAT
S PE
R AI
RCRA
FT M
ILE
AVER
AGE
PASS
ENGE
R TR
IP L
ENGT
HPA
SSEN
GER
MIL
E**
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DOM
ESTI
C (S
eats/
Mile
)IN
T'L
(Sea
ts/M
ile)
TOTA
L (S
eats/
Mile
)DO
MES
TIC
(Mile
s)IN
T'L.
(Mile
s)TO
TAL
(Mile
s)CU
RREN
T $
(C
ents)
2016
$
(Cen
ts)Hi
storic
al20
1056
.153
.256
.046
450
346
515
.74
17.3
020
1156
.452
.756
.346
753
146
815
.10
16.1
820
1256
.154
.856
.046
760
647
013
.16
13.7
720
1356
.166
.856
.446
964
147
211
.65
11.9
820
1457
.258
.857
.347
366
947
711
.37
11.5
220
1559
.962
.860
.047
569
648
010
.94
11.0
420
16E
61.3
68.8
61.5
481
721
487
11.3
211
.32
Fore
cast
2017
62.2
69.1
62.4
482
722
487
11.3
911
.12
2018
63.1
69.4
63.3
484
725
489
11.6
011
.10
2019
64.1
69.7
64.2
486
728
491
11.9
111
.13
2020
64.7
70.0
64.9
488
731
494
12.2
711
.17
2021
65.3
70.3
65.5
490
734
496
12.6
311
.20
2022
65.8
70.6
66.0
492
737
498
12.9
911
.22
2023
66.3
70.9
66.5
494
740
500
13.3
411
.22
2024
66.8
71.2
67.0
496
743
502
13.6
911
.20
2025
67.3
71.5
67.4
498
746
504
14.0
211
.17
2026
67.8
71.8
67.9
500
749
506
14.3
511
.13
2027
68.3
72.1
68.4
502
752
508
14.6
511
.08
2028
68.8
72.4
68.9
504
755
510
14.9
111
.01
2029
69.3
72.7
69.4
506
758
512
15.1
710
.94
2030
69.8
73.0
69.9
508
761
514
15.4
310
.87
2031
70.4
73.3
70.5
510
764
516
15.7
110
.81
2032
70.9
73.6
71.0
512
767
518
15.9
910
.74
2033
71.4
73.9
71.5
514
770
520
16.2
810
.67
2034
71.9
74.2
72.0
516
773
522
16.5
710
.61
2035
72.5
74.5
72.5
518
776
524
16.8
610
.54
2036
73.0
74.8
73.1
520
779
526
17.1
610
.48
2037
73.5
75.1
73.6
522
782
528
17.4
710
.41
Av
g An
nual
Grow
th20
10-1
61.
5%4.
4%1.
6%0.
6%6.
2%0.
8%-5
.3%
-6.8
%20
16-1
71.
5%0.
4%1.
5%0.
1%0.
1%0.
1%0.
5%-1
.8%
2016
-26
1.0%
0.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
2.4%
-0.2
%20
16-3
70.
9%0.
4%0.
9%0.
4%0.
4%0.
4%2.
1%-0
.4%
Sour
ce:
Form
41
and
298C
, U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
** R
epor
ting
carri
ers.
78
TABL
E 25
U.S.
REG
IONA
L CA
RRIE
RS
SCHE
DULE
D PA
SSEN
GER
TRAF
FIC
(In M
illion
s)
REV
ENUE
PAS
SENG
ERS
REVE
NUE
PASS
ENGE
R M
ILES
FISC
AL Y
EAR
DOM
ESTI
CIN
TERN
ATIO
NAL
TOTA
LDO
MES
TIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LTO
TAL
Histo
rical
2010
162
316
475
,030
1,34
776
,377
2011
162
216
475
,513
1,27
076
,783
2012
159
316
274
,330
1,85
676
,187
2013
155
315
872
,956
1,85
174
,807
2014
154
315
772
,953
1,92
674
,878
2015
153
315
672
,753
2,12
774
,880
2016
E15
24
155
72,9
712,
556
75,5
27
Fore
cast
2017
152
415
673
,482
2,57
476
,056
2018
157
416
075
,793
2,65
578
,448
2019
161
416
578
,128
2,73
780
,865
2020
163
416
779
,598
2,78
882
,386
2021
165
416
980
,953
2,83
683
,788
2022
167
417
182
,343
2,88
485
,227
2023
170
417
483
,768
2,93
486
,703
2024
172
417
685
,276
2,98
788
,263
2025
175
417
986
,918
3,04
589
,963
2026
177
418
188
,528
3,10
191
,629
2027
180
418
490
,253
3,16
193
,415
2028
183
418
792
,191
3,22
995
,420
2029
186
419
094
,079
3,29
597
,375
2030
189
419
395
,927
3,36
099
,287
2031
192
419
697
,912
3,43
010
1,34
2
2032
195
520
099
,955
3,50
110
3,45
620
3319
85
203
102,
022
3,57
410
5,59
620
3420
25
207
104,
205
3,65
010
7,85
520
3520
55
210
106,
413
3,72
811
0,14
120
3620
95
214
108,
668
3,80
711
2,47
420
3721
25
217
110,
974
3,88
711
4,86
1
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-1.1
%4.
8%-1
.0%
-0.5
%11
.3%
-0.2
%20
16-1
70.
6%0.
6%0.
6%0.
7%0.
7%0.
7%20
16-2
61.
6%1.
6%1.
6%2.
0%2.
0%2.
0%20
16-3
71.
6%1.
6%1.
6%2.
0%2.
0%2.
0%So
urce
: Fo
rm 4
1 an
d 29
8C, U
.S. D
epar
tmen
t of T
rans
porta
tion.
79
TABL
E 26
U.S.
REG
IONA
L CA
RRIE
RS
SCHE
DULE
D PA
SSEN
GER
CAPA
CITY
, TRA
FFIC
, AND
LOA
D FA
CTOR
S
DOME
STIC
INTE
RNAT
IONA
LTO
TAL
YEAR
ASMs
(MIL
)RP
Ms
(M
IL)
% L
OAD
FACT
ORAS
Ms
(M
IL)
RPMs
(MIL
)%
LOA
D FA
CTOR
ASMs
(MIL
)RP
Ms
(M
IL)
% L
OAD
FACT
ORHi
storic
al20
1098
,461
75,0
3076
.21,
857
1,34
772
.510
0,31
876
,377
76.1
2011
99,0
7575
,513
76.2
1,81
81,
270
69.9
100,
893
76,7
8376
.120
1295
,748
74,3
3077
.62,
595
1,85
671
.598
,343
76,1
8777
.520
1393
,084
72,9
5678
.42,
994
1,85
161
.896
,078
74,8
0777
.920
1491
,169
72,9
5380
.02,
644
1,92
672
.893
,813
74,8
7879
.820
1590
,679
72,7
5380
.22,
832
2,12
775
.193
,511
74,8
8080
.120
16E
91,0
5772
,971
80.1
3,50
52,
556
72.9
94,5
6275
,527
79.9
Fore
cast
2017
91,6
0373
,482
80.2
3,52
62,
574
73.0
95,1
2976
,056
79.9
2018
94,1
3275
,793
80.5
3,62
32,
655
73.3
97,7
5678
,448
80.2
2019
96,7
2578
,128
80.8
3,72
32,
737
73.5
100,
448
80,8
6580
.520
2098
,277
79,5
9881
.03,
783
2,78
873
.710
2,06
082
,386
80.7
2021
99,7
1880
,953
81.2
3,83
82,
836
73.9
103,
556
83,7
8880
.9
2022
101,
228
82,3
4381
.33,
897
2,88
474
.010
5,12
485
,227
81.1
2023
102,
803
83,7
6881
.53,
957
2,93
474
.210
6,76
086
,703
81.2
2024
104,
496
85,2
7681
.64,
022
2,98
774
.310
8,51
988
,263
81.3
2025
106,
370
86,9
1881
.74,
095
3,04
574
.411
0,46
489
,963
81.4
2026
108,
217
88,5
2881
.84,
166
3,10
174
.411
2,38
291
,629
81.5
2027
110,
216
90,2
5381
.94,
243
3,16
174
.511
4,45
893
,415
81.6
2028
112,
482
92,1
9182
.04,
330
3,22
974
.611
6,81
295
,420
81.7
2029
114,
696
94,0
7982
.04,
415
3,29
574
.611
9,11
197
,375
81.8
2030
116,
867
95,9
2782
.14,
499
3,36
074
.712
1,36
599
,287
81.8
2031
119,
210
97,9
1282
.14,
589
3,43
074
.712
3,79
910
1,34
281
.9
2032
121,
628
99,9
5582
.24,
682
3,50
174
.812
6,31
010
3,45
681
.920
3312
4,08
010
2,02
282
.24,
776
3,57
474
.812
8,85
610
5,59
681
.920
3412
6,67
510
4,20
582
.34,
876
3,65
074
.913
1,55
110
7,85
582
.020
3512
9,30
410
6,41
382
.34,
977
3,72
874
.913
4,28
111
0,14
182
.020
3613
1,99
110
8,66
882
.35,
081
3,80
774
.913
7,07
211
2,47
482
.120
3713
4,74
311
0,97
482
.45,
187
3,88
774
.913
9,93
011
4,86
182
.1
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-1.3
%-0
.5%
11.2
%11
.3%
0.1%
-1.0
%-0
.2%
2016
-17
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
2016
-26
1.7%
2.0%
1.7%
2.0%
0.2%
1.7%
2.0%
2016
-37
1.9%
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
0.1%
1.9%
2.0%
Sour
ce: F
orm
41 a
nd 2
98C,
U.S
. Dep
artm
ent o
f Tra
nspo
rtatio
n.
80
TABL
E 27
U.S.
REG
IONA
L CA
RRIE
RS
PASS
ENGE
R AI
RCRA
FT
REGI
ONAL
AIR
CRAF
TAS
OF
LESS
THA
N10
TO
1920
TO
3031
TO
40 S
EATS
OVER
40
SEAT
STO
TAL
FLEE
TJA
NUAR
Y 1
9 SE
ATS
SEAT
SSE
ATS
PROP
JET
TOTA
LPR
OPJE
T*TO
TAL
NON
JET
JET
TOTA
LHi
storic
al20
1044
092
8214
428
172
991,
728
1,82
785
71,
756
2,61
320
1144
794
6711
327
140
135
1,68
31,
818
857
1,71
02,
567
2012
394
9055
115
2313
810
41,
559
1,66
375
81,
582
2,34
020
1333
794
5237
037
511,
642
1,69
357
11,
642
2,21
320
1432
190
5632
032
561,
602
1,65
855
51,
602
2,15
720
1534
668
1332
032
571,
628
1,68
551
61,
628
2,14
420
16E
365
550
590
5940
1,63
71,
677
519
1,63
72,
156
Fore
cast
2017
352
530
570
5741
1,54
21,
583
503
1,54
22,
045
2018
339
510
550
5543
1,49
61,
539
488
1,49
61,
984
2019
327
490
530
5344
1,48
41,
528
473
1,48
41,
957
2020
311
470
500
5045
1,47
71,
522
453
1,47
71,
930
2021
298
450
480
4847
1,46
91,
516
438
1,46
91,
907
2022
285
430
460
4649
1,46
41,
513
423
1,46
41,
887
2023
272
410
440
4450
1,49
31,
543
407
1,49
31,
900
2024
259
390
420
4252
1,48
31,
535
392
1,48
31,
875
2025
247
370
400
4053
1,47
01,
523
377
1,47
01,
847
2026
237
360
380
3855
1,48
61,
541
366
1,48
61,
852
2027
224
340
360
3656
1,52
21,
578
350
1,52
21,
872
2028
211
320
340
3457
1,54
61,
603
334
1,54
61,
880
2029
199
300
320
3258
1,56
41,
622
319
1,56
41,
883
2030
186
280
300
3059
1,58
71,
646
303
1,58
71,
890
2031
173
260
280
2860
1,61
51,
675
287
1,61
51,
902
2032
160
240
260
2662
1,64
61,
708
272
1,64
61,
918
2033
147
220
240
2463
1,68
11,
744
256
1,68
11,
937
2034
134
200
220
2265
1,72
31,
788
241
1,72
31,
964
2035
122
180
200
2066
1,75
81,
824
226
1,75
81,
984
2036
112
170
180
1867
1,80
01,
867
214
1,80
02,
014
2037
9915
016
016
691,
828
1,89
719
91,
828
2,02
7
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-3.1
%-8
.2%
-100
.0%
-13.
8%N/
A-1
6.3%
-14.
0%-0
.9%
-1.4
%-8
.0%
-1.2
%-3
.2%
2016
-17
-3.6
%-3
.6%
N/A
-3.4
%N/
A-3
.4%
2.5%
-5.8
%-5
.6%
-3.1
%-5
.8%
-5.1
%20
16-2
6-4
.2%
-4.1
%N/
A-4
.3%
N/A
-4.3
%3.
2%-1
.0%
-0.8
%-3
.4%
-1.0
%-1
.5%
2016
-37
-6.0
%-6
.0%
N/A
-6.0
%N/
A-6
.0%
2.6%
0.5%
0.6%
-4.5
%0.
5%-0
.3%
81
TABL
E 28
ACTI
VE G
ENER
AL A
VIAT
ION
AN
D A
IR T
AXI A
IRC
RAF
T
FIXE
D W
ING
TOTA
LPI
STON
TURB
INE
ROTO
RCRA
FTGE
NERA
L
AS O
F DE
C. 3
1SI
NGLE
EN
GINE
MUL
TI-
ENGI
NETO
TAL
TURB
O PR
OPTU
RBO
JET
TOTA
LPI
STON
TURB
INE
TOTA
LEX
PERI
- M
ENTA
L**
SPOR
T AI
RCRA
FT**
OTHE
RAV
IATI
ON
FLEE
TTO
TAL
PIST
ONS
TOTA
L TU
RBIN
ESHi
storic
al*20
1013
9,51
915
,900
155,
419
9,36
911
,484
20,8
533,
588
6,51
410
,102
24,7
846,
528
5,68
422
3,37
015
9,00
727
,367
2011
E13
6,89
515
,702
152,
597
9,52
311
,650
21,1
733,
411
6,67
110
,082
24,2
756,
645
5,68
122
0,45
315
6,00
827
,844
2012
128,
847
14,3
1314
3,16
010
,304
11,7
9322
,097
3,29
26,
763
10,0
5526
,715
2,00
15,
006
209,
034
146,
452
28,8
6020
1312
4,39
813
,257
137,
655
9,61
911
,637
21,2
563,
137
6,62
89,
765
24,9
182,
056
4,27
719
9,92
714
0,79
227
,884
2014
126,
036
13,1
4613
9,18
29,
777
12,3
6222
,139
3,15
46,
812
9,96
626
,191
2,23
14,
699
204,
408
142,
336
28,9
5120
1512
7,88
713
,254
141,
141
9,71
213
,440
23,1
523,
286
7,22
010
,506
27,9
222,
369
4,94
121
0,03
114
4,42
730
,372
2016
E12
6,82
013
,200
140,
020
9,46
013
,770
23,2
303,
335
7,36
510
,700
28,4
752,
530
4,95
020
9,90
514
3,35
530
,595
Fore
cast
2017
125,
760
13,1
5513
8,91
59,
285
14,1
0023
,385
3,38
07,
510
10,8
9028
,970
2,68
54,
955
209,
800
142,
295
30,8
9520
1812
4,73
013
,115
137,
845
9,18
014
,415
23,5
953,
425
7,65
011
,075
29,4
902,
835
4,96
020
9,80
014
1,27
031
,245
2019
123,
705
13,0
8013
6,78
59,
110
14,7
6023
,870
3,47
07,
785
11,2
5529
,910
3,00
04,
960
209,
780
140,
255
31,6
5520
2012
2,68
513
,045
135,
730
9,08
015
,115
24,1
953,
515
7,92
011
,435
30,2
403,
160
4,95
020
9,71
013
9,24
532
,115
2021
121,
645
13,0
0513
4,65
09,
075
15,4
8024
,555
3,56
08,
055
11,6
1530
,640
3,31
54,
950
209,
725
138,
210
32,6
10
2022
120,
600
12,9
6513
3,56
59,
115
15,8
4524
,960
3,60
58,
195
11,8
0030
,895
3,48
04,
955
209,
655
137,
170
33,1
5520
2311
9,54
012
,915
132,
455
9,18
516
,210
25,3
953,
650
8,33
511
,985
31,1
753,
640
4,95
520
9,60
513
6,10
533
,730
2024
118,
475
12,8
6513
1,34
09,
295
16,5
8525
,880
3,69
58,
480
12,1
7531
,510
3,79
54,
955
209,
655
135,
035
34,3
6020
2511
7,41
012
,820
130,
230
9,42
016
,965
26,3
853,
740
8,62
512
,365
31,8
353,
965
4,95
520
9,73
513
3,97
035
,010
2026
116,
335
12,7
6512
9,10
09,
570
17,3
4526
,915
3,78
58,
775
12,5
6032
,065
4,12
54,
970
209,
735
132,
885
35,6
90
2027
115,
245
12,7
0512
7,95
09,
755
17,7
4527
,500
3,83
58,
925
12,7
6032
,345
4,28
54,
965
209,
805
131,
785
36,4
2520
2811
4,14
512
,640
126,
785
9,96
018
,155
28,1
153,
885
9,07
512
,960
32,6
404,
445
4,97
520
9,92
013
0,67
037
,190
2029
113,
065
12,5
7512
5,64
010
,180
18,5
6528
,745
3,93
59,
230
13,1
6532
,970
4,61
04,
970
210,
100
129,
575
37,9
7520
3011
2,01
012
,505
124,
515
10,4
2018
,975
29,3
953,
985
9,39
013
,375
33,3
404,
770
4,98
521
0,38
012
8,50
038
,785
2031
110,
990
12,4
3012
3,42
010
,675
19,3
8530
,060
4,04
09,
555
13,5
9533
,595
4,93
04,
990
210,
590
127,
460
39,6
15
2032
110,
000
12,3
5512
2,35
510
,950
19,8
0530
,755
4,09
59,
725
13,8
2033
,900
5,09
54,
995
210,
920
126,
450
40,4
8020
3310
9,03
512
,280
121,
315
11,2
3020
,225
31,4
554,
150
9,90
514
,055
34,1
205,
255
5,00
521
1,20
512
5,46
541
,360
2034
108,
095
12,2
0012
0,29
511
,530
20,6
5532
,185
4,20
510
,090
14,2
9534
,480
5,41
54,
995
211,
665
124,
500
42,2
7520
3510
7,20
512
,125
119,
330
11,8
3521
,105
32,9
404,
265
10,2
8014
,545
34,7
205,
575
5,00
021
2,11
012
3,59
543
,220
2036
106,
350
12,0
4511
8,39
512
,150
21,5
7033
,720
4,32
510
,475
14,8
0035
,015
5,73
05,
010
212,
670
122,
720
44,1
9520
3710
5,55
011
,970
117,
520
12,5
8522
,040
34,6
254,
385
10,6
8015
,065
35,3
105,
885
5,01
521
3,42
012
1,90
545
,305
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
-1.6
%-3
.1%
-1.7
%0.
2%3.
1%1.
8%-1
.2%
2.1%
1.0%
2.3%
N/A
-2.3
%-1
.0%
-1.7
%1.
9%20
16-1
7-0
.8%
-0.3
%-0
.8%
-1.8
%2.
4%0.
7%1.
3%2.
0%1.
8%1.
7%6.
1%0.
1%-0
.1%
-0.7
%1.
0%20
16-2
6-0
.9%
-0.3
%-0
.8%
0.1%
2.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.8%
1.6%
1.2%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.8
%1.
6%20
16-3
7-0
.9%
-0.5
%-0
.8%
1.4%
2.3%
1.9%
1.3%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
4.1%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.8
%1.
9%* S
ourc
e: 2
001-
2010
, 201
2-20
14, F
AA G
ener
al Av
iatio
n an
d Ai
r Tax
i Act
ivity
(and
Avio
nics
) Sur
veys
.**
Expe
rimen
tal L
ight
-spo
rt ca
tego
ry th
at w
as p
revio
usly
show
n un
der S
port
Airc
raft
is m
oved
und
er E
xper
imen
tal A
ircra
ft ca
tego
ry, s
tarti
ng in
201
2.
Note
: An
activ
e ai
rcra
ft is
one
that
has
a c
urre
nt re
gistr
atio
n an
d wa
s flo
wn a
t leas
t one
hou
r dur
ing
the
calen
dar y
ear.
82
TAB
LE 2
9
ACTI
VE G
ENER
AL A
VIAT
ION
AN
D A
IR T
AXI H
OU
RS
FLO
WN
(In T
hous
ands
)
FIXE
D W
ING
TOTA
LPI
STO
NTU
RBIN
ERO
TORC
RAFT
GEN
ERAL
CAL
END
AR Y
EAR
SING
LE
ENG
INE
MUL
TI-
ENG
INE
TOTA
LTU
RBO
PR
OP
TURB
O
JET
TOTA
LPI
STO
NTU
RBIN
ETO
TAL
EXPE
RI-
MEN
TAL*
*SP
ORT
AI
RCRA
FT**
OTH
ERAV
IATI
ON
HOUR
STO
TAL
PIST
ONS
TOTA
L TU
RBIN
ESHi
stor
ical
*20
1012
,161
1,81
813
,979
2,32
53,
375
5,70
079
42,
611
3,40
51,
226
311
181
24,8
0214
,773
8,31
120
11E
11,8
441,
782
13,6
262,
463
3,40
75,
871
757
2,65
43,
411
1,20
327
818
124
,570
14,3
838,
524
2012
11,4
411,
766
13,2
062,
733
3,41
86,
151
731
2,72
33,
454
1,24
316
918
024
,403
13,9
378,
874
2013
10,7
061,
646
12,3
522,
587
3,48
86,
076
636
2,31
22,
949
1,19
117
313
522
,876
12,9
898,
388
2014
10,3
951,
573
11,9
672,
613
3,88
16,
494
818
2,42
43,
242
1,24
416
515
823
,271
12,7
868,
918
2015
11,2
171,
608
12,8
252,
538
3,83
76,
375
798
2,49
63,
294
1,29
519
116
224
,142
13,6
238,
871
2016
E11
,191
1,60
312
,794
2,53
94,
173
6,71
278
42,
565
3,35
01,
335
204
162
24,5
5813
,578
9,27
8
Fore
cast
2017
11,0
071,
596
12,6
042,
538
4,44
56,
983
777
2,63
63,
413
1,37
221
816
324
,753
13,3
819,
619
2018
10,7
601,
590
12,3
502,
539
4,65
57,
194
793
2,70
53,
497
1,41
123
216
324
,847
13,1
439,
899
2019
10,5
731,
584
12,1
572,
542
4,86
37,
405
809
2,77
33,
582
1,44
624
616
325
,000
12,9
6610
,178
2020
10,4
161,
577
11,9
922,
545
5,06
47,
609
828
2,84
33,
671
1,47
926
016
325
,174
12,8
2110
,451
2021
10,2
951,
570
11,8
652,
554
5,25
07,
804
848
2,90
53,
754
1,51
527
516
325
,375
12,7
1310
,709
2022
10,1
801,
566
11,7
462,
570
5,43
78,
007
869
2,97
13,
839
1,54
429
016
325
,589
12,6
1510
,978
2023
10,0
771,
562
11,6
382,
593
5,59
78,
190
886
3,03
73,
922
1,57
530
516
325
,794
12,5
2411
,227
2024
9,99
51,
556
11,5
512,
626
5,75
08,
376
902
3,10
54,
007
1,60
832
016
426
,025
12,4
5311
,481
2025
9,90
11,
550
11,4
512,
662
5,89
48,
556
919
3,17
44,
092
1,64
033
516
426
,239
12,3
6911
,730
2026
9,80
71,
547
11,3
542,
706
6,03
98,
745
934
3,23
54,
169
1,66
935
116
426
,451
12,2
8811
,980
2027
9,72
41,
543
11,2
672,
759
6,19
18,
949
950
3,29
74,
247
1,70
136
616
426
,694
12,2
1612
,247
2028
9,63
71,
542
11,1
792,
816
6,35
19,
167
966
3,35
94,
326
1,73
338
216
526
,951
12,1
4512
,526
2029
9,56
11,
543
11,1
042,
881
6,51
19,
392
983
3,42
44,
406
1,76
539
816
527
,230
12,0
8712
,815
2030
9,50
11,
543
11,0
442,
947
6,66
29,
609
999
3,48
84,
488
1,79
941
416
527
,519
12,0
4313
,097
2031
9,43
61,
545
10,9
813,
017
6,82
09,
838
1,01
63,
555
4,57
11,
825
430
165
27,8
1011
,997
13,3
92
2032
9,38
51,
549
10,9
343,
094
6,97
610
,070
1,03
33,
623
4,65
61,
857
446
166
28,1
2811
,966
13,6
9420
339,
339
1,55
310
,892
3,17
57,
125
10,3
001,
049
3,69
64,
745
1,88
346
316
628
,449
11,9
4113
,996
2034
9,27
71,
558
10,8
353,
258
7,27
010
,529
1,06
53,
770
4,83
51,
919
479
166
28,7
6311
,901
14,2
9820
359,
239
1,55
910
,799
3,34
97,
422
10,7
701,
083
3,84
64,
929
1,94
849
616
629
,107
11,8
8214
,616
2036
9,20
51,
563
10,7
683,
439
7,58
311
,022
1,10
13,
923
5,02
41,
980
512
167
29,4
7311
,868
14,9
4620
379,
187
1,56
610
,754
3,56
17,
736
11,2
961,
118
4,00
55,
124
2,00
752
916
729
,876
11,8
7215
,302
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
6-1
.4%
-2.1
%-1
.5%
1.5%
3.6%
2.8%
-0.2
%-0
.3%
-0.3
%1.
4%N/
A-1
.8%
-0.2
%-1
.4%
1.9%
2016
-17
-1.6
%-0
.4%
-1.5
%0.
0%6.
5%4.
0%-0
.8%
2.7%
1.9%
2.8%
6.8%
0.4%
0.8%
-1.4
%3.
7%20
16-2
6-1
.3%
-0.4
%-1
.2%
0.6%
3.8%
2.7%
1.8%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
5.5%
0.1%
0.7%
-1.0
%2.
6%20
16-3
7-0
.9%
-0.1
%-0
.8%
1.6%
3.0%
2.5%
1.7%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
4.6%
0.1%
0.9%
-0.6
%2.
4%*
Sour
ce:
2001
-201
0, 2
012-
2014
, FAA
Gen
eral
Avia
tion
and
Air T
axi A
ctivi
ty (a
nd A
vioni
cs) S
urve
ys.
**Ex
perim
enta
l Lig
ht-s
port
cate
gory
that
was
pre
vious
ly s
hown
und
er S
port
Airc
raft
is m
oved
und
er E
xper
imen
tal A
ircra
ft ca
tego
ry, s
tarti
ng in
201
2.
Note
: An
activ
e ai
rcra
ft is
one
that
has
a c
urre
nt re
gist
ratio
n an
d wa
s flo
wn a
t lea
st o
ne h
our d
urin
g th
e ca
lend
ar y
ear.
83
TABL
E 30
ACTI
VE P
ILO
TS B
Y T
YPE
OF
CER
TIFI
CAT
E
ROTO
R-TO
TAL
INST
RUM
ENT
AS O
F DE
C. 3
1ST
UDEN
TSRE
CREA
- TI
ONAL
SPOR
T PI
LOT
PRIV
ATE
COM
MER
CIAL
AIRL
INE
TRAN
SPOR
TCR
AFT
ONLY
GLID
ER
ONLY
TOTA
L PI
LOTS
LESS
AT
PILO
TSRA
TED
PI
LOTS
1
Histo
rical*
2010
119,
119
212
3,68
220
2,02
012
3,70
514
2,19
815
,377
21,2
7562
7,58
848
5,39
031
8,00
120
1111
8,65
722
74,
066
194,
441
120,
865
142,
511
15,2
2021
,141
617,
128
474,
617
314,
122
2012
119,
946
218
4,49
318
8,00
111
6,40
014
5,59
015
,126
20,8
0261
0,57
646
4,98
631
1,95
220
1312
0,28
523
84,
824
180,
214
108,
206
149,
824
15,1
1420
,381
599,
086
449,
262
307,
120
2014
120,
546
220
5,15
717
4,88
310
4,32
215
2,93
315
,511
19,9
2759
3,49
944
0,56
630
6,06
620
1512
2,72
919
05,
482
170,
718
101,
164
154,
730
15,5
6619
,460
590,
039
435,
309
304,
329
2016
128,
501
175
5,88
916
2,31
396
,081
157,
894
15,5
1817
,991
584,
362
426,
468
302,
572
Fore
cast
2017
130,
950
175
6,35
016
0,00
092
,500
159,
600
15,4
8017
,700
582,
755
423,
155
301,
400
2018
132,
150
175
6,70
015
8,05
089
,950
159,
900
15,5
0017
,500
579,
925
420,
025
300,
300
2019
132,
850
175
7,05
015
6,05
088
,150
160,
500
15,6
0017
,400
577,
775
417,
275
299,
900
2020
133,
400
175
7,45
015
4,45
086
,900
161,
100
15,7
0017
,300
576,
475
415,
375
300,
000
2021
133,
950
170
7,75
015
3,25
085
,950
161,
800
15,9
0017
,200
575,
970
414,
170
300,
300
2022
134,
450
170
8,05
015
2,20
085
,350
162,
600
16,1
0017
,100
576,
020
413,
420
301,
000
2023
134,
950
170
8,35
015
1,25
084
,900
163,
400
16,3
0017
,000
576,
320
412,
920
301,
700
2024
135,
400
170
8,65
015
0,35
084
,550
164,
100
16,6
0016
,950
576,
770
412,
670
302,
600
2025
135,
900
170
9,00
014
9,45
084
,350
164,
800
16,8
5016
,850
577,
370
412,
570
303,
600
2026
136,
400
165
9,35
014
8,60
084
,150
165,
600
17,1
5016
,750
578,
165
412,
565
304,
700
2027
136,
900
165
9,70
014
7,70
084
,050
166,
400
17,5
0016
,700
579,
115
412,
715
305,
800
2028
137,
350
165
10,0
5014
6,75
083
,950
167,
200
17,8
0016
,700
579,
965
412,
765
307,
000
2029
137,
850
165
10,4
5014
5,80
083
,900
168,
100
18,1
5016
,650
581,
065
412,
965
308,
300
2030
138,
350
165
10,8
5014
4,95
083
,850
168,
900
18,5
0016
,650
582,
215
413,
315
309,
500
2031
138,
800
165
11,2
5014
4,20
083
,850
169,
800
18,8
5016
,600
583,
515
413,
715
310,
800
2032
139,
250
165
11,6
5014
3,45
083
,850
170,
700
19,2
5016
,600
584,
915
414,
215
312,
100
2033
139,
650
165
12,0
0014
2,65
083
,800
171,
500
19,6
0016
,550
585,
915
414,
415
313,
400
2034
140,
100
165
12,4
0014
1,75
083
,800
172,
400
20,0
0016
,550
587,
165
414,
765
314,
700
2035
140,
500
165
12,8
0014
0,85
083
,800
173,
300
20,4
5016
,550
588,
415
415,
115
316,
100
2036
140,
850
165
13,2
0013
9,95
083
,800
174,
200
20,8
5016
,550
589,
565
415,
365
317,
600
2037
141,
200
165
13,6
0013
9,00
083
,800
175,
100
21,3
0016
,550
590,
715
415,
615
319,
100
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.3%
-3.1
%N/
A-3
.6%
-4.1
%1.
8%0.
2%-2
.8%
-1.2
%-2
.1%
-0.8
%20
16-1
71.
9%0.
0%7.
8%-1
.4%
-3.7
%1.
1%-0
.2%
-1.6
%-0
.3%
-0.8
%-0
.4%
2016
-26
0.6%
-0.6
%4.
7%-0
.9%
-1.3
%0.
5%1.
0%-0
.7%
-0.1
%-0
.3%
0.1%
2016
-37
0.4%
-0.3
%4.
1%-0
.7%
-0.6
%0.
5%1.
5%-0
.4%
0.1%
-0.1
%0.
3%* S
ourc
e: F
AA U
.S. C
ivil A
irmen
Sta
tistic
s.1 In
strum
ent r
ated
pilo
ts sh
ould
not b
e ad
ded
to o
ther
cat
egor
ies
in d
erivi
ng to
tal.
Note
: An
activ
e pi
lot is
a p
erso
n wi
th a
pilo
t cer
tific
ate
and
a va
lid m
edic
al ce
rtific
ate.
84
TAB
LE 3
1
GEN
ERAL
AVI
ATIO
N A
IRC
RAF
T F
UEL
CO
NSU
MPT
ION
(In M
illio
ns o
f Gal
lons
)
FIXE
D W
ING
PIST
ON
TURB
INE
ROTO
RCRA
FTEX
PERI
-TO
TAL
FUEL
CO
NSUM
ED
CAL
END
AR Y
EAR
SING
LE
ENG
INE
MUL
TI-
ENG
INE
TURB
O
PRO
PTU
RBO
JET
PIST
ON
TURB
INE
MEN
TAL*
*/
OTH
ERSP
ORT
**AV
GAS
JET
FUEL
TOTA
LHi
stor
ical
*20
1013
354
187
1,12
311
125
221
221
1,43
51,
656
2011
E13
053
195
1,12
510
136
211
216
1,45
61,
672
2012
126
5420
91,
077
1014
916
120
61,
435
1,64
120
1311
754
189
945
912
616
119
71,
260
1,45
720
1412
048
199
1,13
511
132
291
210
1,46
61,
676
2015
128
4019
11,
063
1012
815
119
61,
383
1,57
820
16E
128
4319
01,
150
1013
126
120
81,
471
1,67
9
Fore
cast
2017
126
4118
91,
219
1013
325
120
31,
541
1,74
420
1812
341
188
1,27
010
136
251
200
1,59
41,
794
2019
121
4118
71,
320
1013
925
219
81,
646
1,84
420
2011
940
187
1,36
811
142
252
197
1,69
81,
894
2021
117
4018
71,
411
1114
626
219
51,
744
1,93
9
2022
116
4018
71,
447
1114
726
219
41,
781
1,97
620
2311
539
188
1,47
511
150
262
193
1,81
22,
006
2024
114
3918
91,
500
1115
327
219
31,
841
2,03
520
2511
339
192
1,52
212
155
272
193
1,86
92,
062
2026
111
3919
41,
544
1215
828
219
21,
896
2,08
8
2027
110
3919
61,
567
1216
028
219
11,
922
2,11
320
2810
939
199
1,59
112
162
292
191
1,95
22,
143
2029
108
3820
41,
615
1216
429
219
01,
983
2,17
320
3010
738
207
1,63
613
167
303
190
2,01
02,
200
2031
106
3921
21,
658
1316
930
319
02,
038
2,22
8
2032
105
3921
61,
679
1317
230
319
02,
067
2,25
720
3310
439
221
1,69
713
175
313
190
2,09
42,
284
2034
103
3922
61,
715
1317
931
318
92,
120
2,30
920
3510
239
231
1,73
314
182
323
189
2,14
72,
336
2036
101
3923
61,
753
1418
632
318
92,
175
2,36
520
3710
139
243
1,77
014
190
323
190
2,20
42,
393
Avg
Annu
al G
rowt
h20
10-1
6-0
.7%
-3.7
%0.
2%0.
4%-1
.1%
0.8%
2.9%
N/A
-1.0
%0.
4%0.
2%20
16-1
7-1
.6%
-3.8
%-0
.5%
6.0%
-0.8
%1.
7%-2
.9%
5.7%
-2.2
%4.
8%3.
9%20
16-2
6-1
.4%
-1.0
%0.
2%3.
0%1.
7%1.
9%0.
9%5.
3%-0
.8%
2.6%
2.2%
2016
-37
-1.1
%-0
.4%
1.2%
2.1%
1.6%
1.8%
1.1%
4.5%
-0.4
%1.
9%1.
7%*S
ourc
e: F
AA A
PO E
stim
ates
.**
Expe
rimen
tal L
ight
-spo
rt ca
tego
ry th
at w
as p
revio
usly
sho
wn u
nder
Spo
rt Ai
rcra
ft is
mov
ed u
nder
Exp
erim
enta
l Airc
raft
cate
gory
, sta
rting
in 2
012.
No
te: D
etai
l may
not
add
to to
tal b
ecau
se o
f ind
epen
dent
roun
ding
.
85
TABL
E 3
2
TOTA
L C
OMBI
NED
AIR
CRAF
T OP
ERAT
IONS
AT
AIRP
ORTS
WIT
H F
AA A
ND C
ONTR
ACT
TRAF
FIC
CONT
ROL
SERV
ICE
(In T
hous
ands
)
AIR
AIR
TAXI
/GE
NERA
L AV
IATI
ONM
ILIT
ARY
NUM
BER
OF T
OWER
SFI
SCAL
YEA
RCA
RRIE
RCO
MM
UTER
ITIN
ERAN
TLO
CAL
TOTA
LIT
INER
ANT
LOCA
LTO
TAL
TOTA
LFA
ACO
NTRA
CTHi
storic
al20
1012
,658
9,41
014
,864
11,7
1626
,580
1,30
91,
298
2,60
751
,255
264
244
2011
12,8
669,
279
14,5
2811
,437
25,9
651,
319
1,31
12,
630
50,7
4026
424
820
1212
,873
8,99
414
,522
11,6
0826
,130
1,30
91,
270
2,57
950
,576
264
250
2013
12,7
768,
803
14,1
1711
,688
25,8
061,
275
1,27
62,
552
49,9
3726
425
220
1413
,015
8,44
013
,979
11,6
7525
,654
1,27
01,
245
2,51
549
,624
264
252
2015
13,7
557,
895
13,8
8711
,691
25,5
781,
292
1,20
32,
495
49,7
2226
425
220
16E
14,4
177,
580
13,9
0411
,632
25,5
361,
317
1,14
52,
462
49,9
9526
425
2
Fore
cast
2017
15,0
227,
381
13,9
3611
,664
25,6
001,
318
1,14
62,
464
50,4
6626
425
320
1815
,677
6,98
313
,972
11,7
0625
,678
1,31
81,
146
2,46
450
,802
264
253
2019
16,3
386,
530
14,0
0911
,747
25,7
561,
318
1,14
62,
464
51,0
8826
425
320
2016
,980
6,09
014
,046
11,7
8925
,835
1,31
81,
146
2,46
451
,369
264
253
2021
17,5
965,
687
14,0
8411
,831
25,9
151,
318
1,14
62,
464
51,6
6126
425
3
2022
18,0
935,
451
14,1
2111
,873
25,9
951,
318
1,14
62,
464
52,0
0226
425
320
2318
,450
5,43
314
,159
11,9
1626
,075
1,31
81,
146
2,46
452
,422
264
253
2024
18,7
575,
483
14,1
9711
,959
26,1
561,
318
1,14
62,
464
52,8
5926
425
320
2519
,067
5,53
714
,235
12,0
0326
,238
1,31
81,
146
2,46
453
,305
264
253
2026
19,4
005,
593
14,2
7312
,046
26,3
201,
318
1,14
62,
464
53,7
7526
425
3
2027
19,7
335,
649
14,3
1212
,090
26,4
021,
318
1,14
62,
464
54,2
4826
425
320
2820
,067
5,70
614
,351
12,1
3526
,486
1,31
81,
146
2,46
454
,723
264
253
2029
20,4
105,
764
14,3
9012
,179
26,5
691,
318
1,14
62,
464
55,2
0826
425
320
3020
,754
5,82
414
,430
12,2
2426
,654
1,31
81,
146
2,46
455
,695
264
253
2031
21,0
995,
883
14,4
6912
,270
26,7
391,
318
1,14
62,
464
56,1
8526
425
3
2032
21,4
455,
944
14,5
0912
,315
26,8
251,
318
1,14
62,
464
56,6
7726
425
320
3321
,794
6,00
514
,550
12,3
6126
,911
1,31
81,
146
2,46
457
,173
264
253
2034
22,1
536,
067
14,5
9012
,408
26,9
981,
318
1,14
62,
464
57,6
8126
425
320
3522
,526
6,12
914
,631
12,4
5427
,085
1,31
81,
146
2,46
458
,205
264
253
2036
22,9
026,
193
14,6
7212
,501
27,1
741,
318
1,14
62,
464
58,7
3226
425
320
3723
,272
6,25
714
,713
12,5
4927
,262
1,31
81,
146
2,46
459
,255
264
253
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
2.2%
-3.5
%-1
.1%
-0.1
%-0
.7%
0.1%
-2.1
%-0
.9%
-0.4
%20
16-1
74.
2%-2
.6%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
2016
-26
3.0%
-3.0
%0.
3%0.
4%0.
3%0.
0%0.
0%0.
0%0.
7%20
16-3
72.
3%-0
.9%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
Sour
ce:
FAA
Air T
raffi
c Ac
tivity
.
86
TABL
E 33
TOTA
L TR
ACON
OPE
RATI
ONS
(In T
hous
ands
)
AIR
AIR
TAXI
/GE
NERA
LFI
SCAL
YEA
RCA
RRIE
RCO
MM
UTER
AVIA
TION
MIL
ITAR
YTO
TAL
Histo
rical
2010
13,1
749,
511
13,8
642,
438
38,9
8720
1113
,068
9,34
913
,503
2,37
538
,295
2012
13,0
458,
977
13,4
242,
332
37,7
7820
1312
,914
8,79
713
,048
2,22
536
,984
2014
13,1
868,
390
13,0
182,
229
36,8
2320
1513
,948
7,86
113
,076
2,28
637
,171
2016
E14
,640
7,67
213
,090
2,31
137
,713
Fore
cast
2017
15,2
507,
457
13,0
932,
311
38,1
1120
1815
,902
7,01
013
,137
2,31
138
,361
2019
16,5
586,
501
13,1
762,
311
38,5
4720
2017
,197
6,00
513
,215
2,31
138
,728
2021
17,8
095,
551
13,2
562,
311
38,9
27
2022
18,3
055,
283
13,3
022,
311
39,2
0220
2318
,664
5,25
813
,358
2,31
139
,591
2024
18,9
725,
309
13,4
172,
311
40,0
0920
2519
,284
5,36
413
,476
2,31
140
,436
2026
19,6
195,
422
13,5
382,
311
40,8
90
2027
19,9
545,
480
13,6
002,
311
41,3
4520
2820
,290
5,53
913
,662
2,31
141
,803
2029
20,6
365,
599
13,7
262,
311
42,2
7220
3020
,982
5,66
013
,789
2,31
142
,742
2031
21,3
295,
722
13,8
532,
311
43,2
15
2032
21,6
775,
785
13,9
172,
311
43,6
9020
3322
,028
5,84
713
,982
2,31
144
,169
2034
22,3
905,
911
14,0
482,
311
44,6
6020
3522
,765
5,97
714
,115
2,31
145
,168
2036
23,1
436,
043
14,1
832,
311
45,6
8020
3723
,516
6,10
914
,251
2,31
146
,186
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
1.8%
-3.5
%-1
.0%
-0.9
%-0
.6%
2016
-17
4.2%
-2.8
%0.
0%0.
0%1.
1%20
16-2
63.
0%-3
.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.8%
2016
-37
2.3%
-1.1
%0.
4%0.
0%1.
0%So
urce
: FA
A Ai
r Tra
ffic
Activ
ity.
87
TABL
E 34
IFR
AIR
CRAF
T H
ANDL
ED
AT F
AA E
N RO
UTE
TRA
FFIC
CON
TROL
CEN
TERS
(In T
hous
ands
)
IFR
AIRC
RAFT
HAN
DLED
FISC
AL Y
EAR
AIR
CARR
IER
AIR
TAXI
/ CO
MM
UTER
GENE
RAL
AVIA
TION
MIL
ITAR
Y
TOT
ALHi
storic
al20
1022
,342
8,62
46,
550
2,98
240
,498
2011
23,4
329,
010
6,55
72,
228
41,2
2720
1223
,651
8,93
26,
472
1,86
040
,915
2013
23,2
058,
673
6,44
01,
676
39,9
9420
1424
,267
8,50
76,
741
1,83
041
,346
2015
25,2
707,
847
7,00
71,
795
41,9
1820
16E
26,3
187,
787
7,30
11,
826
43,2
31
Fore
cast
2017
27,2
737,
710
7,42
81,
826
44,2
3620
1827
,925
7,53
37,
470
1,82
644
,755
2019
28,5
257,
333
7,49
41,
826
45,1
7820
2029
,114
7,12
37,
510
1,82
645
,573
2021
29,6
826,
944
7,52
51,
826
45,9
77
2022
30,3
046,
772
7,54
91,
826
46,4
5120
2331
,023
6,61
67,
596
1,82
647
,061
2024
31,7
796,
458
7,65
01,
826
47,7
1420
2532
,514
6,34
37,
709
1,82
648
,392
2026
33,1
806,
329
7,77
71,
826
49,1
12
2027
33,8
576,
313
7,84
71,
826
49,8
4320
2834
,544
6,29
47,
918
1,82
650
,582
2029
35,2
486,
272
7,99
31,
826
51,3
3920
3035
,952
6,25
78,
068
1,82
652
,103
2031
36,6
196,
284
8,14
51,
826
52,8
73
2032
37,2
926,
310
8,22
21,
826
53,6
5020
3337
,973
6,33
68,
301
1,82
654
,436
2034
38,6
696,
361
8,38
21,
826
55,2
3920
3539
,373
6,39
88,
467
1,82
656
,064
2036
40,0
786,
441
8,55
31,
826
56,9
0020
3740
,784
6,48
48,
640
1,82
657
,734
Avg
Annu
al Gr
owth
2010
-16
2.8%
-1.7
%1.
8%-7
.8%
1.1%
2016
-17
3.6%
-1.0
%1.
7%0.
0%2.
3%20
16-2
62.
3%-2
.1%
0.6%
0.0%
1.3%
2016
-37
2.1%
-0.9
%0.
8%0.
0%1.
4%So
urce
: FA
A Ai
r Tra
ffic
Activ
ity