* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
87
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 18
U.s. maiNliNe air carrier Forecast assUmptioNs
Jet FUel prices
FISCALyEAR
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SySTEM
CURRENT $ Fy 2009 $ CURRENT $ Fy 2009 $ CURRENT $ Fy 2009 $
(Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents) (Cents)
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
71.49
149.39194.69194.17292.56202.31
212.19
225.90247.43261.42272.36283.88
296.30304.66310.81311.31306.96
300.81296.35292.44295.10301.17
307.57313.89322.37332.00341.73
12.3%4.9%3.8%2.5%
89.51
165.06207.46202.19291.69202.31
209.28
218.59234.32243.04248.42254.07
260.02262.24262.46258.06250.09
240.90233.27226.24224.17224.55
225.07225.36227.11229.36231.40
9.5%3.4%1.8%0.6%
79.35
157.26204.69203.31314.57208.41
228.15
242.90266.05281.09292.85305.24
318.59327.58334.20334.74330.05
323.44318.65314.45317.30323.82
330.71337.50346.63356.97367.44
11.3%9.5%3.8%2.7%
99.35
173.76218.12211.70313.64208.41
225.02
235.04251.95261.33267.11273.19
279.58281.97282.21277.47268.90
259.02250.81243.26241.04241.44
242.01242.32244.20246.61248.81
8.6%8.0%1.8%0.8%
73.57
151.58197.72197.00299.67204.44
217.35
231.39253.45267.78278.98290.78
303.50312.06318.37318.88314.42
308.12303.55299.55302.27308.49
315.04321.51330.21340.06350.03
12.0%6.3%3.8%2.6%
92.11
167.48210.70205.13298.78204.44
214.36
223.91240.02248.95254.46260.25
266.34268.61268.84264.33256.17
246.75238.93231.74229.62230.01
230.54230.84232.63234.93237.02
9.3%4.9%1.8%0.7%
* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
88
taBle 19
U.s. commercial air carriers
air cargo reveNUe toN miles1
FISCALyEAR
ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS (Millions)
PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS(Millions)
TOTAL RTMS(Millions)
DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL DOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
10,283.5
13,007.912,481.212,795.212,257.710,219.7
10,372.1
10,607.410,932.611,231.811,493.411,754.8
12,016.212,281.312,570.212,886.713,237.5
13,559.513,878.914,209.414,542.914,897.8
15,258.615,611.115,973.716,337.316,724.3
-0.1%1.5%2.5%2.4%
7,573.1
14,581.215,475.216,164.415,587.412,058.1
12,688.8
13,590.214,635.015,737.216,910.618,128.5
19,390.320,706.622,118.823,634.125,270.6
26,980.828,769.230,665.032,693.034,865.8
37,144.639,559.242,095.344,775.247,615.7
5.3%5.2%7.1%6.8%
17,856.6
27,589.027,956.428,959.627,845.122,277.8
23,060.9
24,197.625,567.526,969.028,404.029,883.3
31,406.532,987.934,689.036,520.838,508.0
40,540.342,648.144,874.347,235.949,763.6
52,403.255,170.358,068.961,112.564,340.0
2.5%3.5%5.3%5.2%
4,415.2
3,081.73,229.43,022.82,152.91,640.2
1,636.8
1,645.61,666.91,682.81,691.61,699.2
1,705.61,711.31,719.01,729.01,742.1
1,749.91,755.81,761.61,766.31,772.0
1,776.81,779.01,780.81,781.01,782.2
-10.4%-0.2%0.6%0.4%
7,784.6
8,547.78,483.58,050.09,027.06,907.1
7,174.7
7,585.08,062.08,556.19,073.79,599.4
10,132.110,676.511,252.911,863.212,514.4
13,181.213,864.414,577.015,328.416,122.5
16,939.017,789.618,665.819,575.520,523.5
-1.3%3.9%5.7%5.3%
12,199.9
11,629.511,712.811,072.811,179.98,547.4
8,811.5
9,230.59,728.9
10,238.910,765.311,298.6
11,837.712,387.812,971.913,592.214,256.5
14,931.015,620.216,338.517,094.717,894.5
18,715.819,568.620,446.621,356.522,305.7
-3.9%3.1%4.9%4.7%
14,698.7
16,089.615,710.515,818.014,410.511,860.0
12,008.9
12,253.012,599.512,914.513,185.113,454.0
13,721.813,992.614,289.214,615.714,979.6
15,309.315,634.715,971.016,309.216,669.8
17,035.417,390.117,754.418,118.318,506.5
-2.4%1.3%2.2%2.1%
15,357.8
23,128.923,958.724,214.424,614.418,965.3
19,863.5
21,175.222,696.924,293.325,984.327,727.8
29,522.331,383.233,371.735,497.337,785.0
40,162.042,633.645,241.948,021.450,988.3
54,083.657,348.860,761.164,350.768,139.2
2.4%4.7%6.6%6.3%
30,056.5
39,218.539,669.240,032.439,025.030,825.2
31,872.4
33,428.235,296.437,207.839,169.341,181.9
43,244.245,375.847,660.950,113.052,764.5
55,471.358,268.361,212.964,330.667,658.1
71,118.974,738.978,515.582,469.086,645.7
0.3%3.4%5.2%5.0%
* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
1 Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
89
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 20
U.s. maiNliNe air carriers
passeNger Jet aircraFt
CALENDARyEAR
LARGE NARROWBODy LARGE WIDEBODy LARGEJETS
REGIONALJETS
TOTALJETS2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL
Historical2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
3,364
3,3083,3023,3543,1703,040
3,003
3,0223,0753,1603,1863,259
3,3103,3723,4573,5373,580
3,5893,6703,7063,7983,822
3,8583,9143,9724,0344,093
-1.1%-1.2%1.8%1.4%
385
372629109
9
87654
43110
00000
00000
-34.1%0.0%
-100.0%-100.0%
0
00011
1
11100
00000
00000
00000
NA0.0%
-100.0%-100.0%
3,749
3,3453,3283,3833,1813,050
3,013
3,0313,0833,1673,1913,263
3,3143,3753,4583,5383,580
3,5893,6703,7063,7983,822
3,8583,9143,9724,0344,093
-2.3%-1.2%1.7%1.4%
424
466463477470466
477
484490517533564
578604622648676
705745773804840
873912945990
1,026
1.1%2.4%3.5%3.8%
169
2919129
10
10
1010864
20000
00000
00000
-27.0%0.0%
-100.0%-100.0%
120
5449474440
40
4040404038
2818864
20000
00000
-11.5%0.0%
-20.6%-20.6%
713
549531536523516
527
534540565579606
608622630654680
707745773804840
873912945990
1,026
-3.5%2.1%2.6%3.3%
4,462
3,8943,8593,9193,7043,566
3,540
3,5653,6233,7323,7703,869
3,9223,9974,0884,1924,260
4,2964,4154,4794,6024,662
4,7314,8264,9175,0245,119
-2.5%-0.7%1.9%1.7%
26
12396491
100
109
124134146166182
192196201206198
198203203208208
213213218218223
16.1%9.0%6.2%3.9%
4,488
3,9063,8983,9833,7953,666
3,649
3,6893,7573,8783,9364,051
4,1144,1934,2894,3984,458
4,4944,6184,6824,8104,870
4,9445,0395,1355,2425,342
-2.2%-0.5%2.0%1.8%
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
90
taBle 21
U.s. maiNliNe air carriers
cargo Jet aircraFt
CALENDARyEAR
LARGE NARROWBODy LARGE WIDEBODyTOTAL
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL 2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE TOTAL
Historical2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
166
164162162161158
164
171180204236259
279302323344361
372383395406422
439455471488504
-0.5%3.8%8.2%5.7%
332
233220162143107
107
107104866247
36251550
00000
00000
-11.8%0.0%
-100.0%-100.0%
176
9078756833
32
3028262117
70000
00000
00000
-17.0%-3.0%
-100.0%-100.0%
674
487460399372298
303
308312316319323
322327338349361
372383395406422
439455471488504
-8.7%1.7%1.8%2.5%
164
246264276276259
279
297311321337354
377398413431447
463485512539571
603635667699726
5.2%7.7%4.8%5.0%
158
193208213215206
207
213218222226230
234235235233233
233227217207197
187177167157152
3.0%0.5%1.2%-1.4%
68
7580869791
88
9193969698
100104107111114
118121125128132
135139142146149
3.3%-3.3%2.6%2.4%
390
514552575588556
574
601622639659682
711737755775794
814833854874900
925951976
1,0021,027
4.0%3.2%3.3%3.0%
1,064
1,0011,012974960854
877
909934955978
1,005
1,0331,0641,0931,1241,155
1,1861,2161,2491,2801,322
1,3641,4061,4471,4901,531
-2.4%2.7%2.8%2.8%
91
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 22
total Jet FUel aNd aviatioN gasoliNe FUel coNsUmptioN
U.s. civil aviatioN aircraFt(Millions of Gallons)
FISCALyEAR
JET FUEL AvIATION GASOLINE TOTALFUEL
CONSUMEDU.S. AIR CARRIERS1
GENERALAvIATION
TOTALAIR
CARRIERGENERALAvIATION
TOTALDOMESTIC INT’L. TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
14,746
13,97813,46113,53813,17911,478
11,182
11,18911,46211,70511,90412,104
12,29112,48012,69312,93113,202
13,42513,63913,86114,08114,318
14,54014,74814,96015,16815,392
-2.7%-2.6%1.7%1.4%
5,297
5,3785,8516,0456,2895,767
5,525
5,7005,8956,0976,3036,507
6,7116,9147,1257,3527,590
7,8238,0558,2928,5338,786
9,0459,3049,5699,836
10,115
0.9%-4.2%3.2%2.7%
20,043
19,35619,31319,58319,46817,244
16,707
16,88917,35717,80218,20718,611
19,00219,39419,81820,28320,792
21,24721,69422,15322,61523,104
23,58524,05324,52925,00425,507
-1.7%-3.1%2.2%1.9%
972
1,5271,6431,4861,7061,364
1,356
1,5671,8072,0462,1202,195
2,2702,3422,4072,4762,548
2,6212,6932,7702,8492,928
3,0083,0903,1743,2633,354
3.8%-0.6%6.5%4.4%
21,015
20,88320,95521,06921,17418,609
18,063
18,45619,16419,84820,32720,806
21,27221,73622,22522,75923,341
23,86824,38724,92325,46426,032
26,59227,14327,70328,26828,861
-1.3%-2.9%2.6%2.1%
2
22222
2
22222
22222
22222
22222
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
333
295283274248225
220
233235235233232
231231232233235
237238240244248
252256261265269
-4.2%-2.3%0.6%0.8%
335
297285276250227
222
235237237235234
233233234235237
239240242246250
254258263267271
-4.2%-2.2%0.6%0.8%
21,350
21,18021,24121,34421,42418,836
18,286
18,69119,40120,08620,56221,040
21,50421,96922,45822,99423,578
24,10724,62725,16625,70926,282
26,84627,40127,96528,53529,132
-1.4%-2.9%2.6%2.1%
* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1 Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
92
taBle 23
U.s. regioNal carrier Forecast assUmptioNs
FISCALyEAR
AvERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AvERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHREvENUE PER
PASSENGER MILE**
DOMESTIC(Seats/Mile)
INT’L.(Seats/Mile)
SySTEM(Seats/Mile)
DOMESTIC(Miles)
INT’L.(Miles)
SySTEM(Miles)
CURRENT $(Cents)
2009$(Cents)
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
38.4
48.649.349.952.855.0
56.2
56.857.357.858.258.6
58.959.359.760.360.8
61.361.862.362.763.1
63.664.064.564.965.4
41.8
52.452.254.053.452.8
53.1
53.453.754.054.354.6
54.955.255.555.856.1
56.456.757.057.357.6
57.958.258.558.859.1
38.5
48.749.450.052.955.0
56.2
56.757.257.758.158.5
58.959.259.760.260.7
61.261.762.262.663.0
63.563.964.464.865.3
286.5
434.7450.4451.5460.8456.5
453.8
455.2462.9471.3479.5487.9
495.2502.7510.2517.8525.6
532.2538.8545.6552.4559.3
564.9570.5576.2582.0587.8
260.0
434.2467.2518.1532.7511.3
516.3
521.3526.3531.3536.3541.3
546.3551.3556.3561.3566.3
571.3576.3581.3586.3591.3
596.3601.3606.3611.3616.3
285.5
434.7450.7452.9462.3457.4
454.8
456.3463.9472.2480.4488.8
496.0503.4510.9518.5526.3
532.8539.4546.1552.9559.8
565.4571.0576.7582.5588.3
30.28
19.6719.8820.1821.4419.04
20.23
20.7620.9020.9721.0521.14
21.2521.3621.4621.5521.62
21.6921.7821.8621.9622.07
22.2722.4822.6922.9223.16
-5.0%6.3%0.7%0.9%
37.92
21.7321.1821.0121.3819.04
19.95
20.0919.7919.5019.2018.92
18.6518.3818.1217.8617.61
17.3717.1416.9116.6816.46
16.3016.1415.9915.8315.68
-7.4%4.8%-1.2%-0.9%
* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.
93
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 24
U.s. regioNal carriers
scHedUled passeNger traFFic(In Millions)
FISCALyEAR
REvENUE PASSENGERS REvENUE PASSENGER MILES
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SySTEM DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SySTEM
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
79.7
146.4152.2156.2159.1153.8
160.8
166.2172.0177.7182.9188.0
193.0198.1203.7209.7216.3
222.5228.7235.1241.6248.6
255.6262.6269.7276.9284.6
7.6%4.6%3.0%3.0%
3.1
3.33.53.43.52.6
2.7
2.82.92.93.03.1
3.23.33.43.53.6
3.73.83.94.04.1
4.24.44.54.64.7
-2.2%4.6%3.0%3.0%
82.8
149.7155.7159.6162.6156.3
163.4
168.9174.8180.6186.0191.1
196.2201.4207.0213.1219.9
226.2232.5239.0245.6252.7
259.9266.9274.2281.5289.3
7.3%4.6%3.0%3.0%
22,825
63,65468,53270,52873,30570,188
72,953
75,64179,59683,73287,72591,717
95,57799,578
103,900108,574113,692
118,417123,233128,266133,462139,025
144,398149,803155,417161,163167,265
13.3%3.9%4.5%4.2%
814
1,4171,6341,7721,8671,304
1,377
1,4371,5021,5661,6281,688
1,7501,8121,8801,9532,033
2,1092,1872,2682,3512,439
2,5292,6202,7132,8092,910
5.4%5.6%4.0%3.9%
23,639
65,07170,16672,30075,17271,492
74,330
77,07881,09885,29889,35393,406
97,327101,390105,780110,527115,725
120,526125,420130,534135,812141,464
146,928152,423158,130163,972170,175
13.1%4.0%4.5%4.2%
* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
94
taBle 25
U.s. regioNal carriers
scHedUled passeNger capacitY, traFFic, aNd load Factors
FISCALyEAR
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SySTEM
ASMs(MIL)
RPMs(MIL)
% LOADFACTOR
ASMs(MIL)
RPMs(MIL)
% LOADFACTOR
ASMs(MIL)
RPMs(MIL)
% LOADFACTOR
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
38,332
90,02891,45893,45299,46994,421
96,258
98,734103,810109,120114,242119,361
124,307129,435134,979140,979147,553
153,615159,793166,253172,920180,062
186,957193,890201,093208,466216,296
10.5%1.9%4.4%4.0%
22,825
63,65468,53270,52873,30570,188
72,953
75,64179,59683,73287,72591,717
95,57799,578103,900108,574113,692
118,417123,233128,266133,462139,025
144,398149,803155,417161,163167,265
13.3%3.9%4.5%4.2%
59.5
70.774.975.573.774.3
75.8
76.676.776.776.876.8
76.976.977.077.077.1
77.177.177.277.277.2
77.277.377.377.377.3
1,338
2,2132,3872,5502,6321,873
1,964
2,0352,1112,1872,2572,325
2,3922,4612,5362,6172,705
2,7892,8732,9593,0483,142
3,2483,3533,4623,5723,696
3.8%4.8%3.3%3.3%
814
1,4171,6341,7721,8671,304
1,377
1,4371,5021,5661,6281,688
1,7501,8121,8801,9532,033
2,1092,1872,2682,3512,439
2,5292,6202,7132,8092,910
5.4%5.6%4.0%3.9%
60.8
64.068.569.570.969.6
70.1
70.671.171.672.172.6
73.173.674.174.675.1
75.676.176.677.177.6
77.978.178.478.678.7
39,670
92,24093,84596,002
102,10196,294
98,222
100,769105,922111,306116,499121,686
126,699131,896137,515143,596150,259
156,404162,666169,212175,967183,204
190,205197,243204,555212,038219,993
10.4%2.0%4.3%4.0%
23,639
65,07170,16672,30075,17271,492
74,330
77,07881,09885,29889,35393,406
97,327101,390105,780110,527115,725
120,526125,420130,534135,812141,464
146,928152,423158,130163,972170,175
13.1%4.0%4.5%4.2%
59.6
70.574.875.373.674.2
75.7
76.576.676.676.776.8
76.876.976.977.077.0
77.177.177.177.277.2
77.277.377.377.377.4
* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
95
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 26
U.s. regioNal carriers
passeNger aircraFt
AS OFJANUARy 1
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT
LESS THAN
9 SEATS
10 TO 19SEATS
20 TO 30SEATS
31 TO 40 SEATS OvER 40 SEATS TOTAL FLEET
PROP JET TOTAL PROP JET** TOTAL NON JET JET TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
470
449453453451466
454
444393418405391
376363347346346
343341341338337
334332331331330
-0.1%-2.6%-2.7%-1.6%
470
449453453451466
454
444393418405391
376363347346346
343341341338337
334332331331330
-0.1%-2.6%-2.7%-1.6%
262
9988796865
65
6565656564
6464636363
6262626161
6060595958
-14.3%0.0%-0.3%-0.5%
474
253224228180153
145
138103121113104
9587787777
7777777777
7777777777
-11.8%-5.2%-6.1%-3.2%
74
989698436
0
00000
00000
00000
00000
-24.4%N/AN/A
-99.9%
548
351320326223159
145
138103121113104
9587787777
7777777777
7777777777
-12.8%-8.8%-6.1%-3.4%
155
8187
101121115
129
143156169183197
209222235250265
276292306320334
345358373388403
-3.3%12.2%7.5%6.2%
496
1,6301,6321,6561,7301,704
1,603
1,6691,7051,7431,7481,723
1,7041,7081,7061,7221,766
1,7871,8521,9121,9762,060
2,1252,2002,2802,3602,441
14.7%-5.9%1.0%1.7%
651
1,7111,7191,7571,8511,819
1,732
1,8121,8611,9121,9311,920
1,9131,9301,9411,9722,031
2,0632,1442,2182,2962,394
2,4702,5582,6532,7482,844
12.1%-4.8%1.6%2.2%
1,704
1,1021,0561,033927902
896
893820875867857
844835821834849
855868882891903
909919932947960
-6.8%-0.7%-0.5%0.3%
570
1,7281,7281,7541,7731,710
1,603
1,6691,7051,7431,7481,723
1,7041,7081,7061,7221,766
1,7871,8521,9121,9762,060
2,1252,2002,2802,3602,441
13.0%-6.3%1.0%1.7%
2,274
2,8302,7842,7872,7002,612
2,499
2,5622,5252,6182,6152,580
2,5482,5432,5272,5562,615
2,6422,7202,7942,8672,963
3,0343,1193,2123,3073,401
1.6%-4.3%0.5%1.3%
*Source: The velocity Group for the Regional Airline Association.**Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
96
taBle 27
active geNeral aviatioN aNd air taxi aircraFt
AS OFDEC. 31
FIXED WINGROTORCRAFT
EXPERI-MENTAL
SPORTAIRCRAFT OTHER
TOTALGENERALAvIATION
FLEET
TOTAL PISTONS
TOTAL TURBINES
PISTON TURBINE
SINGLEENGINE
MULTI-ENGINE TOTAL TURBO
PROPTURBO
JET TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
149,422
148,102 145,033147,571145,497144,745
144,104
143,502142,996142,581142,240141,955
141,748141,613141,594141,727142,052
142,550143,084143,696144,438145,323
146,143147,078148,139149,319150,646
-0.4%-0.4%-0.1%0.2%
21,091
19,504 18,70819,33517,51917,351
17,177
17,04116,91616,79116,65616,520
16,38416,24116,09815,95515,815
15,68115,55215,42415,29915,176
15,05914,94114,82714,71114,597
-2.1%-1.0%-0.8%-0.8%
170,513
167,606 163,741 166,906 163,016 162,096
161,281
160,543 159,912 159,372 158,896 158,475
158,132 157,854 157,692 157,682 157,867
158,231 158,636 159,120 159,737 160,499
161,202 162,019 162,966 164,030 165,243
-0.6%-0.5%-0.2%0.1%
5,762
7,942 8,0639,5148,9079,010
9,100
9,2149,3499,5009,6509,799
9,94310,08510,22710,37010,516
10,66510,81210,95911,10811,259
11,41111,56411,71711,87012,023
5.1%1.0%1.5%1.4%
7,001
9,823 10,37910,38511,04211,418
11,779
12,18412,65713,21713,82714,466
15,12215,79816,48617,19117,925
18,69119,48720,31521,17522,069
22,99623,95724,95225,97927,035
5.6%3.2%4.3%4.2%
12,763
17,765 18,442 19,899 19,949 20,428
20,879
21,398 22,006 22,718 23,477 24,265
25,065 25,883 26,713 27,561 28,442
29,357 30,299 31,274 32,283 33,328
34,407 35,520 36,669 37,849 39,059
5.4%2.2%3.1%3.1%
2,680
3,039 3,2642,7693,4983,666
3,830
4,0054,1804,3604,5504,755
4,9455,1255,2905,4555,625
5,7955,9706,1456,3206,495
6,6706,8457,0207,1957,370
3.5%4.5%3.9%3.4%
4,470
5,689 5,8956,7986,3786,540
6,715
6,9207,1257,3357,5557,795
8,0158,2258,4158,6058,800
9,0009,2009,4009,6009,800
10,00510,21010,41510,62010,825
4.3%2.7%2.7%2.4%
7,150
8,728 9,159 9,567 9,876
10,206
10,545
10,925 11,305 11,695 12,105 12,550
12,960 13,350 13,705 14,060 14,425
14,795 15,170 15,545 15,920 16,295
16,675 17,055 17,435 17,815 18,195
4.0%3.3%3.2%2.8%
20,407
23,627 23,04723,22823,36423,435
23,605
24,32025,03025,68026,32526,965
27,55028,12528,69529,26029,770
30,27530,77531,27031,76032,245
32,67533,10033,52033,93534,350
1.5%0.7%2.3%1.8%
NA
170 1,273 6,066 6,811 7,311
7,711
8,711 9,711
10,61111,11111,611
12,01112,41112,71113,01113,311
13,61113,91114,21114,51114,811
15,11115,41115,71116,01116,311
N/A5.5%5.6%3.9%
6,700
6,4546,2775,9405,6525,673
5,679
5,6845,6775,6705,6635,657
5,6505,6445,6375,6315,625
5,6185,6125,6065,6005,594
5,5885,5825,5765,5715,565
-1.8%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
217,533
224,350 221,939 231,606 228,668 229,149
229,699
231,581 233,642 235,746 237,577 239,522
241,369 243,267 245,153 247,206 249,440
251,888 254,404 257,026 259,812 262,772
265,658 268,688 271,877 275,210 278,723
0.6%0.2%0.8%0.9%
173,193
170,645 167,005 169,675 166,514 165,762
165,111
164,548 164,092 163,732 163,446 163,230
163,077 162,979 162,982 163,137 163,492
164,026 164,606 165,265 166,057 166,994
167,872 168,864 169,986 171,225 172,613
-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%0.2%
17,233
23,454 24,337 26,697 26,327 26,968
27,594
28,318 29,131 30,053 31,032 32,060
33,080 34,108 35,128 36,166 37,242
38,357 39,499 40,674 41,883 43,128
44,412 45,730 47,084 48,469 49,884
5.1%2.3%3.0%3.0%
* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
97
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 28
active geNeral aviatioN aNd air taxi HoUrs FlowN(In Thousands)
CALENDARyEAR
FIXED WINGROTORCRAFT
EXPERI-MENTAL
SPORTAIRCRAFT
OTHER
TOTALGENERALAvIATION HOURS
TOTAL PISTONS
TOTAL TURBINES
PISTON TURBINE
SINGLEENGINE
MULTI-ENGINE
TOTALTURBOPROP
TURBOJET
TOTAL PISTON TURBINE TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
18,089
13,73913,97613,57112,74611,436
11,004
11,70511,85611,96511,85511,839
11,74711,78811,86811,99412,127
12,35012,45912,61312,84213,134
13,42613,73914,04614,32014,613
-5.0%-3.8%1.0%1.2%
3,400
2,6772,5502,6862,3282,132
2,105
2,1372,1222,0712,0191,985
1,9461,9241,9111,9001,887
1,8671,8621,8711,8831,900
1,9281,9531,9882,0272,051
-5.1%-1.3%-1.1%-0.2%
21,489
16,416 16,525 16,257 15,074 13,568
13,109
13,842 13,978 14,036 13,875 13,823
13,692 13,713 13,779 13,894 14,014
14,217 14,321 14,484 14,725 15,034
15,354 15,693 16,034 16,347 16,663
-5.0%-3.4%0.7%1.0%
1,986
2,1602,1622,6612,4572,241
2,272
2,4582,5372,6092,6502,688
2,7142,7402,7762,8122,842
2,8632,8982,9352,9632,986
3,0153,0543,0973,1383,180
1.4%1.4%2.3%1.7%
2,755
3,7674,0773,9383,6002,902
2,904
3,4874,1964,9245,1705,425
5,6975,9576,1976,4636,739
7,0217,3117,6167,9338,257
8,5888,9309,2839,662
10,051
0.6%0.1%8.8%6.1%
4,741
5,927 6,240 6,600 6,057 5,143
5,176
5,945 6,733 7,533 7,821 8,113
8,411 8,697 8,973 9,275 9,581
9,884 10,209 10,551 10,896 11,243
11,603 11,984 12,380 12,800 13,232
0.9%0.7%6.4%4.6%
530
678918704751709
726
761796832871912
951988
1,0221,0571,093
1,1281,1651,2031,2401,277
1,3151,3531,3911,4291,468
3.3%2.4%4.2%3.5%
1,661
2,4382,5282,5412,4702,356
2,371
2,4552,5412,6282,7212,821
2,9153,0073,0923,1773,265
3,3563,4483,5413,6343,728
3,8253,9234,0224,1224,222
4.0%0.6%3.3%2.8%
2,191
3,116 3,446 3,245 3,222 3,065
3,096
3,216 3,336 3,461 3,591 3,733
3,866 3,995 4,114 4,234 4,358
4,485 4,614 4,743 4,874 5,006
5,140 5,276 5,413 5,551 5,690
3.8%1.0%3.5%3.0%
1,307
1,3401,2181,2751,1551,031
1,000
1,0881,1981,3031,4031,480
1,5201,5601,5991,6391,676
1,7131,7501,7871,8241,862
1,8961,9301,9651,9992,034
-2.6%-3.0%5.3%3.3%
NA
9 66 260293314
332
382435484517551
582613641669698
728759791824857
892928965
1,0031,043
N/A5.5%7.7%5.9%
374
271 211 215 209 208
208
209 210 210 211 212
213 214 214 215 216
217 218 219 219 220
221 222 223 224 225
-6.3%-0.4%0.4%0.4%
30,102
27,078 27,705 27,852 26,009 23,330
22,921
24,681 25,889 27,027 27,418 27,913
28,284 28,791 29,320 29,926 30,543
31,244 31,870 32,575 33,362 34,222
35,107 36,034 36,980 37,925 38,886
-2.8%-1.8%2.9%2.5%
22,019
17,094 17,443 16,962 15,825 14,277
13,835
14,602 14,774 14,868 14,745 14,735
14,643 14,701 14,802 14,951 15,107
15,345 15,486 15,687 15,965 16,312
16,669 17,046 17,425 17,776 18,131
-4.7%-3.1%0.9%1.1%
6,402
8,365 8,767 9,141 8,527 7,499
7,547
8,400 9,273 10,162 10,541 10,934
11,326 11,704 12,064 12,452 12,846
13,240 13,657 14,092 14,530 14,971
15,428 15,907 16,402 16,922 17,454
1.8%0.6%5.5%4.1%
* Source: 2000-2008, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
98
taBle 29
active pilots BY tYpe oF certiFicate
AS OFDEC. 31 STUDENTS RECREA-
TIONALSPORTPILOT PRIvATE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE
TRANSPORT
ROTOR-CRAFTONLy
GLIDERONLy
TOTALPILOTS
TOTALLESS
AT PILOTS
INSTRUMENTRATED
PILOTS1
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
93,064
87,21384,86684,33980,98972,280
70,700
69,05071,40073,15073,85074,300
74,70074,95075,35075,50075,800
76,20076,80077,40078,10079,000
80,10081,40082,85084,45086,050
-2.8%-2.2%0.7%0.8%
340
278 239239252234
235
235235235235235
235235235235235
235235235235235
235235235235235
-4.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%
NA
134 939
2,0312,6233,248
4,060
4,8725,8466,1506,5006,850
7,2007,6008,0008,4008,850
9,2509,700
10,15010,65011,150
11,70012,25012,85013,45014,100
N/A25.0%8.1%7.2%
251,561
228,619 219,233211,096222,596211,619
206,400
202,000200,500200,550201,000201,600
202,250202,850203,500204,050204,600
205,200205,950206,800207,800209,000
210,450212,200214,250216,550219,050
-1.9%-2.5%-0.1%0.2%
121,858
120,614 117,610115,127124,746125,738
124,950
125,150123,900119,850119,750119,650
121,250122,650123,650124,550125,450
126,300127,300128,400129,600130,900
132,350133,850135,450137,200139,100
0.3%-0.6%0.0%0.5%
141,596
141,992 141,935143,953146,838144,600
142,650
142,750142,800143,750145,100145,750
146,700147,300148,200149,100150,300
151,250151,900153,450154,550156,050
157,350158,550160,000161,400162,900
0.2%-1.3%0.5%0.6%
7,775
9,518 10,69012,29014,64715,298
15,380
15,54016,25017,01017,70018,300
18,86019,42019,88020,24020,400
20,39020,27020,14020,01020,060
20,21020,42020,67021,00021,380
7.8%0.5%2.9%1.6%
9,387
21,369 21,59721,274 21,055 21,268
21,270
21,350 21,380 21,410 21,440 21,470
21,510 21,540 21,570 21,600 21,630
21,670 21,700 21,730 21,760 21,800
21,830 21,860 21,890 21,930 21,960
9.5%0.0%0.2%0.2%
625,581
609,737 597,109 590,349 613,746 594,285
585,645
580,947 582,311 582,105 585,575 588,155
592,705 596,545 600,385 603,675 607,265
610,495 613,855 618,305 622,705 628,195
634,225 640,765 648,195 656,215 664,775
-0.6%-1.5%0.4%0.5%
483,985
467,745 455,174 446,396 466,908 449,685
442,995
438,197 439,511 438,355 440,475 442,405
446,005 449,245 452,185 454,575 456,965
459,245 461,955 464,855 468,155 472,145
476,875 482,215 488,195 494,815 501,875
-0.8%-1.5%0.3%0.5%
311,944
311,500 309,333309,865325,247323,495
322,300
321,100322,800324,500326,200327,900
329,600332,100334,600337,200339,800
343,200346,700350,200353,800357,400
361,000364,700368,400372,100375,900
0.4%-0.4%0.5%0.7%
* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.
1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.
Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
99
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 30
geNeral aviatioN aircraFt FUel coNsUmptioN(In Millions of Gallons)
CALENDARyEAR
FIXED WINGROTORCRAFT EXPERI-
MENTAL/OTHER
SPORTTOTAL FUEL CONSUMED
PISTON TURBINESINGLEENGINE
MULTI-ENGINE
TURBO-PROP
TURBO-JET AvGAS JET FUEL TOTALPISTON TURBINE
Historical2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
200.8
173.1164.9157.6143.0129.0
124.7
133.3133.7133.6131.0129.5
127.9127.7127.9128.6129.4
131.1131.6132.6134.3136.7
139.0141.5144.0146.1148.3
-4.8%-3.3%0.4%0.7%
108.4
89.779.983.069.564.0
63.5
64.863.761.559.457.8
56.355.554.854.253.6
52.752.352.352.452.6
53.153.554.255.055.4
-5.7%-0.8%-1.7%-0.7%
176.3
196.1190.1205.2230.4210.2
211.0
228.2235.6239.8243.6247.2
247.0249.4252.6253.3256.1
258.0258.5261.8264.3266.4
268.9272.4276.3279.9283.7
2.0%0.4%2.0%1.4%
736.7
1,181.31,303.91,148.01,313.21,014.1
1,004.6
1,194.41,422.81,653.21,718.41,784.9
1,855.81,920.91,978.32,042.82,108.7
2,174.92,242.02,312.22,384.42,456.9
2,530.02,604.52,680.12,761.92,844.3
3.6%-0.9%7.7%5.0%
8.4
14.616.79.3
10.710.1
10.3
10.811.311.812.312.8
13.413.914.314.815.3
15.816.316.817.317.8
18.318.919.419.920.5
2.1%2.4%4.0%3.4%
59.0
149.2148.6132.4162.1140.0
140.2
144.4148.7153.1157.7162.7
167.3171.7175.6179.6183.6
187.8192.0196.1200.3204.5
208.8213.0217.3221.6225.8
10.1%0.1%2.7%2.3%
15.2
17.721.622.623.320.7
20.1
21.924.026.128.129.4
30.231.031.732.533.2
33.934.535.235.936.7
37.438.038.739.440.1
3.5%-3.0%5.1%3.2%
NA
0.00.31.21.51.6
1.6
1.92.12.32.52.6
2.82.93.13.13.3
3.43.53.63.83.9
4.14.34.44.64.8
N/A3.4%7.3%5.5%
332.8
295.0283.4273.6248.1225.3
220.2
232.6234.7235.2233.2232.2
230.6231.0231.8233.2234.7
237.0238.1240.5243.7247.7
251.9256.2260.7265.0269.0
-4.2%-2.3%0.6%0.8%
972.0
1,526.71,642.61,485.61,705.71,364.3
1,355.8
1,567.11,807.12,046.12,119.72,194.8
2,270.12,342.02,406.62,475.72,548.4
2,620.62,692.52,770.22,849.02,927.8
3,007.73,089.93,173.73,263.43,353.8
3.8%-0.6%6.5%4.4%
1,304.8
1,821.71,926.01,759.21,953.81,589.6
1,576.0
1,799.72,041.82,281.32,352.92,427.0
2,500.72,573.02,638.32,708.92,783.1
2,857.62,930.73,010.73,092.83,175.5
3,259.63,346.13,434.43,528.43,622.8
2.2%-0.9%5.9%4.0%
Source: FAA APO Estimates.
Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
100
taBle 31
total comBiNed aircraFt operatioNs at airports
witH Faa aNd coNtract traFFic coNtrol service(In Thousands)
FISCALyEAR
AIRCARRIER
AIR TAXI/ COMMUTER
GENERAL AvIATION MILITARyTOTAL
NUMBER OF TOWERS
ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL ITINERANT LOCAL TOTAL FAA CONTRACT
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
15,158.7
13,533.613,256.313,611.213,779.112,831.3
12,519.5
12,611.512,915.913,246.613,552.913,858.7
14,162.614,470.814,803.615,167.515,562.9
15,932.716,303.516,681.617,058.817,457.8
17,861.918,252.718,658.919,063.319,481.9
-1.8%-2.4%2.2%2.0%
10,760.5
12,550.511,967.611,667.311,028.99,510.4
9,326.0
9,329.49,441.29,546.69,643.09,727.0
9,831.99,942.410,059.410,183.010,327.8
10,478.410,638.910,810.610,993.911,202.2
11,427.811,670.411,931.412,212.312,514.7
-1.4%-1.9%1.0%1.3%
22,844.1
19,303.218,707.118,575.217,521.315,554.5
14,982.3
15,167.415,356.115,547.715,741.715,947.5
16,155.616,366.916,581.916,799.717,020.9
17,245.217,473.117,704.517,939.418,177.9
18,420.118,666.118,915.819,169.519,427.1
-4.2%-3.7%1.3%1.1%
17,034.4
14,843.614,365.414,556.814,146.712,419.9
12,114.9
12,265.412,418.312,572.512,727.312,885.9
13,046.713,208.613,372.513,538.913,708.0
13,879.214,052.614,241.014,432.414,627.1
14,823.415,023.115,224.515,429.315,637.5
-3.4%-2.5%1.2%1.1%
39,878.5
34,146.833,072.533,132.031,668.027,974.4
27,097.2
27,432.727,774.528,120.228,469.128,833.4
29,202.329,575.529,954.430,338.630,728.9
31,124.431,525.731,945.432,371.832,805.0
33,243.533,689.134,140.334,598.835,064.5
-3.9%-3.1%1.3%1.1%
1,439.8
1,414.51,358.41,313.91,283.71,294.0
1,278.0
1,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.0
1,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.0
1,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.0
1,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.01,278.0
-1.2%-1.2%0.0%-0.1%
1,448.2
1,449.11,417.41,405.71,217.71,262.5
1,238.6
1,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.6
1,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.6
1,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.6
1,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.61,238.6
-1.5%-1.9%0.0%-0.1%
2,888.0
2,863.62,775.82,719.62,501.42,556.5
2,516.6
2,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.6
2,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.6
2,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.6
2,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.62,516.6
-1.3%-1.6%0.0%-0.1%
68,685.7
63,094.561,072.261,130.058,977.452,872.6
51,459.3
51,890.352,648.253,430.154,181.654,935.7
55,713.456,505.457,334.058,205.759,136.2
60,052.160,984.761,954.262,941.163,981.6
65,049.866,128.867,247.268,390.969,577.7
-2.9%-2.7%1.4%1.3%
266
264263264264264
264
264264264264264
264264264264264
264264264264264
264264264264264
192
229231235239244
244
244244244244244
244244244244244
244244244244244
244244244244244
* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
101
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
taBle 32
total tracoN operatioNs(In Thousands)
FISCALyEAR
AIRCARRIER
AIR TAXI/COMMUTER
GENERALAvIATION
MILITARy TOTAL
Historical*2000
20052006200720082009E
Forecast2010
20112012201320142015
20162017201820192020
20212022202320242025
20262027202820292030
Avg Annual Growth2000-092009-102010-202009-30
16,395.0
14,123.413,963.314,366.014,438.813,295.7
13,131.2
13,366.013,767.314,160.414,515.814,876.9
15,237.715,605.816,006.516,447.216,924.0
17,361.217,807.618,263.318,718.519,207.8
19,699.620,175.820,676.321,173.721,692.7
-2.3%-1.2%2.6%2.4%
11,197.7
12,751.112,035.711,675.811,043.19,604.8
9,372.3
9,375.79,484.09,586.19,679.49,760.8
9,862.39,969.2
10,082.310,201.910,341.8
10,487.210,642.110,807.710,984.511,185.2
11,402.411,635.811,886.712,156.612,446.8
-1.7%-2.4%1.0%1.2%
20,799.2
17,388.917,005.316,747.415,756.514,116.3
14,074.9
14,230.314,393.514,559.014,726.614,901.7
15,078.715,258.315,441.015,626.115,813.9
16,004.316,197.716,393.916,579.516,795.2
17,000.317,208.617,420.017,634.517,852.3
-4.2%-0.3%1.2%1.1%
3,466.9
2,798.72,669.92,498.72,398.82,385.8
2,383.4
2,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.4
2,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.4
2,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.4
2,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.42,383.4
-4.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%
51,858.8
47,062.145,674.245,288.043,637.239,402.6
38,961.8
39,355.440,028.240,688.941,305.241,922.8
42,562.143,216.743,913.344,658.545,463.1
46,236.047,030.847,848.348,665.949,571.6
50,485.751,403.552,366.453,348.154,375.3
-3.0%-1.1%1.6%1.5%
* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
FAA
Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2010–2030
102
taBle 33
iFr aircraFt HaNdled
at Faa air roUte traFFic coNtrol ceNters(In Thousands)
