1
Globalization Globalization and the Developing Countries(for DMUG 2009)
1
Prof. Shigeru T. OTSUBO
GSID, Nagoya University
October 2009
IntroductionSome findings from my summer trips to Ghna, Bhutan, China, lndonesia…… by Prof. Otsubo
2
Facets of Globalization: Ghana
3
Facets of Globalization: Ghana
4
2
Facets of Globalization: Bhutan
5
Gross National Happiness?
6
Gross National Happiness?
7
Gross National Happiness?
8
3
Gross National Happiness?
9
Facets of Globalization: China
10
Facets of Globalization: China
11
China’s Inequality vs. India’s Equality？ （１）図 1-10 中国の業種別相対賃金
(産業別相対賃金： 農林水産業ベース) (業種別相対賃金： 靴機械加工ベース)
4
4.5
鉱業4.5
5
5.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
鉱業
製造業
電気・ガス・水道
建設
卸売・小売業, ホテ
ル・食堂
運輸,倉庫,通信
金融仲介
不動産他
公共行政, 防衛
教育 1 5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
銀行計理士
化学技術者
電子工学技術者
電子部品組立工
鉱山下働き
電話交換手
紡績工
12
（注） 左図では対農林水産業平均賃金と, 右図では靴の機械加工工の平均賃金をベースにそれらとの相
対比(倍率)をとっている.
(出所) ILO, LABORSTA Online Database (http://laborsta.ilo.org/)より筆者作成.
1
1.5
健康,社会事業
0.5
1
1.5
4
China’s Inequality vs. India’s Equality？ （２）図 1-11 インドの業種別相対賃金 (対 農業収穫労働者賃金)
10
12
銀行計理士
4
6
8
保険業コンピュータ・プ
ログラマー
銀行窓口係
卸売・小売店員
電子電気製図
金属加工機械工
建設労働者
縫製機械操作
13
（注） 農業収穫労働者の平均賃金をベースにそれらとの相対比(倍率)をとっている.
(出所) NBER, Occupational Wages around the World Database (ILO, LABORSTA を統計調整して国際間賃金
比較も可能にしたデータベース) (http://www.nber.org/oww/)より筆者作成.
0
2
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
縫製機械操作
China’s Inequality vs. India’s Equality？（３）図 1-12 経済統合・成長・不平等の推移： 中国とインドの比較
(中国) (インド)
900
1000
1100
40
45
50
600
700
40
45
50
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
14
（注） 中国の全国 Gini 係数は、農村部と都市部の Gini 係数を生活費格差調整をしつつ合成している.
(出所) 中国のGini係数はRavallion, Martin and Chen, Shaohua (2004), Table 10から, インドのGini
係数は Jha, Raghbendra (2004),Table 12.4 から収集. その他は World Bank, World Development Indicators 2007 CD-ROM データより筆者作成.
Gini係数 農村部
Gini係数 都市部
Gini係数 全国
財・サービス貿易/GDP比 (%)
総民間資本フロー/GDP比 (%)
１人当たりの実質ＧＤＰ（2000 US$) (右目盛り)
0 0
Gini係数 農村部
Gini係数 都市部
財・サービス貿易/GDP比 (%)
総民間資本フロー/GDP比 (%)
１人当たりの実質ＧＤＰ（2000 US$) (右目盛り)
Facets of Globalization: Indonesia
Arguments at the Indonesia Seminar
ＡＳＥＡＮ＋３ Economic Integration Acceleration of Growth?
Impact(s) on the Poor ?Population under the poverty line may
not decrease in spite of accelerated growth??
Needs of Strategic Economic Integration15
What is “Globalization”?--a traditional definition--
Globalization, defined as the integration of , gproduction, distribution, and use of goods and services among the economies of the world, has been evolving since the end of World War II. The signs of globalization are manifested at a factor level in the increasing flows of capital and labor, and at the product level in a resounding growth in
16
world trade above and beyond the growth of world output…..
From an old WB report written by Prof. Otsubo
5
Growth in World Trade and GDP, 1960-(trade in goods and services)
1300
300
500
700
900
1100
(Inde
x 1960 =
100)
World Trade (1995 US$)
World Output (1995 US$)
17
Source: World Bank, World Bank Development Indicators, 2004.
100
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Globalization of What?
Globalization of GoodsGlobalization of GoodsGlobalization of ServicesGlobalization of InvestmentGlobalization of FinanceGlobalization of Human ResourcesGlobalization of Corporate ActivitiesGlobalization of Information
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Globalization of InformationGlobalization of (Harmonization of) StandardsMore…(Democracy, Market Mechanism,
i.e. American Standards?)
Benefits of GlobalizationWider variety of Goods and Services have become available at lower prices.Enlarged Investment opportunity that results in higher average rate of return, more investment, and technologyaverage rate of return, more investment, and technology transfer (FDI).More choices for (possible diversification in) development Finance.Flows in Human Resources complement initial endowments and mitigate bottlenecks in the supply of (un)skilled labor.Global Corporate Activities connect national economies-consumers and producers alike, create marketing channels, and diffuse technology (technical and managerial)
19
and diffuse technology (technical and managerial).Lower-cost and timely access to Information that reduces transaction costs, and accelerates the process of catch up. Lower costs of cross-border trade and spot operations due to a harmonization of Standards.
Risks associated with GlobalizationG. of Goods, Services, Investment often calls for agglomeration (scale economies) that leads to monopoly power, and uneven presence of economic activities resulting in both cross-country and regional disparities.g pG. of Finance creates ‘hot money’ and calls for good governance (by western standard) that often limits policy options in developing countries.G. of Human Resources accelerates brain drain.G. of Corporate Activities often goes against sovereignty and impedes the growth of indigenous firms and industries. G of Information creates digital divide and thus widens gaps in
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G.of Information creates digital divide, and thus widens gaps in opportunity (ex-ante gaps) as well as welfare gaps (ex-post gaps).G. of (H. of) Standards forces social changes (democracy, market mechanism, western corporate culture, contracts, judicial system, etc.).
6
Trade Integration(exports plus import volumes, ratio to GDP*)
45
50
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45P
erc
ent Developing
Countries
High IncomeCountries
21
Note: * Based on national income accounts. Trade in goods and services.
Source: DEC Analytical Database, World Bank; World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1999.
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
Trade Integration by Developing Regions(exports plus import volumes, ratio to GDP*)
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Perc
ent
East Asia & Pacif ic
Latin America &Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
22
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
Note: * Based on national income accounts. Trade in goods and services.
Source: DEC Analytical Database, World Bank; World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1999.
Net Resource Flows to Developing Countries1970-2006
500
600
100
200
300
400 Portfolio equity flows (US$)
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$)
Net flows on debt, total long‐term (NFL, US$)
Grants, excluding technical cooperation (US$)
23
Source: World Bank, Global Development Finance, 2007 CD-ROM
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Net Resource Flows to Developing Countries,1970-1999Private vs. Official
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
US$ b
illio
n Private net resourceflows (US$)
Official net resourceflows (US$)
24
Source: World Bank, Global Development Finance, 2001 Advanced Release
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
Year
7
Net Resource Flows to Developing Countries,1970-2006Private vs. Official
80%
90%
100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Private net resource flows
Official net resource flows
25
Source: World Bank, Global Development Finance, 2007 CD-ROM
0%
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Average MFN Tariffs in Industrial Countries(on imports of manufactures from various regions)
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
OECD LatinA i
Asia Africa Europe
Perc
ent
Post-Round
Pre-Round
26
Post-Round Pre-RoundOECD 3.0 5.5Latin Amer 3.2 4.4Asia 5.2 7.8Africa 6.7 8.4Europe 7.3 9.5
America
Average Tariffs in Developing Countries(on imports of manufactures from various regions)
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
Lat
inA
merica
Asi
a
Afr
ica
Euro
pe
Lat
inA
merica
Asi
a
Afr
ica
Euro
pe
From industrial countries From developing countries
Perc
ent
Post-Round
Pre-Round
27
From industrial countries From developing countriesPost-Round Pre-Round Post-Round Pre-Round
Latin America 18.2 22.1 Latin America 19.7 24.9Asia 8.4 12.4 Asia 6.3 9.1Africa 23 23 Africa 19 19.1Europe 15.5 26.4 Europe 15.2 22
Goods vs. Service Trade(1975-2006, current US$, 1975=100)
1400
1600
1800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Merchandise exports
Commercial service exports
28
0
8
Service Trade Components
1200
1400
200
400
600
800
1000
1200(U
S $
bill
ion)
Professional services
Travel services
Transport services
29
0
200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Service Trade Components
100%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Professional services
Travel services
Transport services
30
0%
10%
20%
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Price index of information processing, 1975-94(100=1US$ per instruction per second)
IBM Mainframe (1975)
Digital Vax (1979)
Cray I (1976)
IBM PC (1981) SUN Microsystems 2 (1984)
31
Pentium chip (1994)
Cost of a 3-Minute Telephone Call,New York to London
(Constant 1990, U.S. $)
188.51
244.65
53.2100150200250300350
32
45.86 31.583.324.8
050
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
9
Gross Income of Bank Credit Clerks*, 1994
(US$ per year)
Zurich 78,100Tokyo 63,400 Abu Dhabi 47,800 Paris 42,000 New York 29,000 Bangkok 14,200 Tel Aviv 15,800 Rio de Janeiro 7,600 Jakarta 3,900 Bombay 1 900
33
Bombay 1,900Nairobi 1,600
Note: * With completed banking training, 10 years of experience, around 35 years of age, and married with two children.
Source: World Bank, database for Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries, 1995.
Number of MNEs and Their Affiliates in Major Countries Number of
MNEs (A) Number of
Affiliates (B) (B)/(A) Data year
U.S.A. 3,470 18,608 5.36 1994Japan 3,967 3,405 0.86 1995Germany 7,292 11,581 1.59 1994France 2,126 8,682 4.08 1995U.K. 1,467 3,894 2.65 1992Canada 1,691 4,583 2.71 1995China 379 45,000 118.73 1993Korea 4,806 3,878 0.81 1996Singapore n.a. 19,160 n.a. 1994Total Developed
36,380 93,628 2.57
34
pCountries Note: 1. MNEs are defined as enterprises which run their business in more than two countries. 2. (A) is the number of MNEs originating from the corresponding country, and (B) is the number of
foreign affiliates in said country. Source: United Nations, World Investment Report, 1997; Kaigai Jigyou Katsudou Chousa, 1995.
Number of MNEs and Their Affiliates in Major Countries
35
(注) 先進国・開発途上国の分類は国連システムのそれに拠る. 世銀システムでは高所得国(先進国)に分類されるアジアNIEsや中東産油国も途上国地域に分類される. (出所) UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007, Table A.I.5より筆者作成.
Regionalization under GlobalizationThere is a surge in the formation of regional arrangements in the 1990s even with thearrangements in the 1990s, even with the successful completion of the Uruguay Round.New motives for new arrangements.—Deep integration—Safe haven— Insurance—Buy out
36
Open regionalism can be conducive to free world. Developing countries can utilize regional arrangements to effectively negotiate in multilateral organizations such as the WTO.
10
Number of GATT/WTO Member Countries
1980 1987 1990 2000 2005* Non-OECD members
61 65 76 116 149
OECD members 24 24 24 24 30 Source: WTO, Annual Report, various years. * As of December 11, 2005.
37
In July 2008, WTO has 153 member countries, of which 30 are OECD(30) members.OECD30 = OECD24 + (Czech Republic, Hungary, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Slovak Republic)
Number of Existing Regional Integration Schemes(by their establishment year)
Regions Prior to 1969 1970-79 1980-89 1990- Total E 1 2 0 36 39Europe 1 2 0 36 39Americas 2 1 15 22 40 Asia and Oceania 0 0 1 2 3 Middle East 0 0 3 1 4 Africa 2 2 0 4 8 Other (across multiple regions)
1 1 1 4 7
Total 6 6 20 69 101 Source: JETRO, White Paper on International Trade, 1996.
38
The surge in RTAs has continued unabated since the early 1990s. Some 421 RTAs have been notified to the GATT/WTO up to December 2008. Of these, 324 RTAs were notified under Article XXIV of the GATT 1947 or GATT 1994; 29 under the Enabling Clause; and 68 under Article V of the GATS. At that same date, 230 agreements were in force.
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm; October 12, 2009)
Uneven Process of Globalization
Many countries have become less integrated with the world economy.Growth and integration go together.Slow integrators will continue to lag
39
Slow integrators will continue to lag behind in their growth.Much can be done to promote integration.
Average Growth in Real Per Capita Income and Exports(106 Low and Middle Income Countries)
1.9
-0.6
2 53-2-10123
Percent P.C.IGrowth
40
-2.5-3
Top 1/3
(10.2%)
Middle 1/3
(3.5%)
Bottom 1/3
(-3.2%)
Export Performers:
(Export Growth)
11
But there were large disparities across regions(Changes in trade to GDP ratios*)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
41
-1
-0.5
0High Income East Asia Latin America Europe &
Cent. AsiaSouth Asia Mid.East &
No.AfricaSub-Saharan
Africa
1975-84 1985-94
* Annual Average Changes
Speed of Integration and GDP Growth, 1970-1992(18 Major Developing Economies)
10
Korea
Correlation Coefficient = +0.51
2
4
6
8
GD
P G
row
th R
ate
(per
cent
) China
ThailandMlaysia
Indonesia
Mexico
Argentina
BrazilChile
Philippines
Venezuela
NigeriaIran
FSU South Africa
India
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
42
0-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Speed of Integration (percent)
Source: International Economics Department, World Bank.
FDI up significantly, but mostly for a few countries(FDI to GDP Ratios*)
1.6
0 4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.481-83
91-93
43
0
0.2
0.4
High Income East Asia Europe & C. Asia Latin America Mid. E. & N.Africa Sub-Saharan A. South Asia
* GDP in purchasing power parity terms.
Share in Private Flows to LMICs(Percentage, 1991-94)
3529
13
8 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2
05
1015202530
Total 12 countries 89%
44
0
ChinaMex
icoArg
entin
aKorea
Malays
iaPortu
galBraz
ilThail
and
IndiaTurke
yHungaryIndones
ia
12
FDIs to Developing Countries (Shares 1985-2005)
45
(注) １５２ヶ国の低、中所得国への海外直接投資純インフロー（BOPベース, 名目米ドル）データより試算. (出所) World Bank, World Development Indicators 2007 CD-ROMより筆者作成.
What can developing countries doto improve integration?
(Standard Answers before the Asian Crisis)Liberalization of trade and investmentLiberalization of trade and investment regimes
Macroeconomic stability
“Micro” policiesInfrastructure development
46
– Infrastructure development– Privatization– Technology transfer
Low tariffs mean high trade ratios
70
80Trade/GDP Ratio*
20
30
40
50
60
47
0
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
*Trade to GDP ratio adjusted for country size.
Tariff Rate
Foreign investors don’t like instability
4
FDI as % of GDP 1991-93
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
48
0
0.5
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Exchange rate volatility 1984-93
13
Private players reduceagricultural marketing costs...
(Cocoa marketing costsas a share of the selling price, 1989)
70
20
30
40
50
60
70
49
0
10
Cameroon Cote D'Ivoire Ghana Malaysia Nigeria Brazil Indonesia
Source: World Bank staff estimates base on Ruf (1993)
Actions by industrial countries...Persist on liberalization—Agriculture—Textiles/garments
Enhance WTO negotiations with proper treatments ofEnhance WTO negotiations with proper treatments of developing country members—TRIM—Trade and environment
Enhance the “rules-based” system—Antidumping—Safeguards
Encourage North-South arrangements
50
—Association agreementsMonitoring and regulating international financial flows—IMF (and BIS?) on crisis prevention, pre-crisis dialogue
Stabilize exchange rates among key currenciesAssisting IT strategies of developing countries
Spending per Capita on Information Infrastructurein 1998 (US$)
13.49Asia Pacific
19.93
28.28
22.89
11.56
129 11Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
Eastern Europe & Central Asia
51
129.11
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
OECD Countries
Source: John Gage, “From Digital Divide to Digital Opportunity: Business Leaders Report for Davos”, Development Outreach, World Bank Institute (Spring 2000).
Globalization and Domestic Disparity
Uneven process of globalization in domestic economy, as well.Spatial (Geographical) DisparityIntegration, Growth,
d I I lit
52
and Income InequalityManagement/Governance matters
in controlling disparity in Development under Globalization.
14
How to Manage Development under Globalization
How to form the virtuous cycle of integration and growth.Asian crisis shows …..A d f G d GA need for Good Governance.— Sound macroeconomic management.
— Fiscal (revenue and expenditure) & debt management.— Monetary policy rules (incl. exchange rate schemes).— Re-regulations and monitoring.
— Domestic reform efforts.— Financial sector reform.— Corporate sector reform.
53
Corporate sector reform.— Public sector reform.— Market reform (incl. deregulations and competition laws).
— Institutional development (incl. judicial system).— Global governance (incl. global financial architecture).
Decentralization and national strategies. And more ….. 54
Expansion of CorporateActivity and Investment
Self-reliance of Individuals
Corporate governanceEmployment practices
Job choice society
Human capital investment
Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable GrowthStructural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth
Corporate governance
Corporate accounts disclosure
Corporate restructuring
FDI into Japan IT revolution
Corporate pension (401k type)
p
Personal income taxationCorporate taxation
Entrepreneurship promotion
Social security
Education reform
Financial system reform
Regulatory reform
SME policy
Portfolio investment diversification
Compact and Efficient Government
Labor market liberalization
Budget consolidationAdministrative reformFILP reformLocal gov’t autonomyElectronic government
Public investment reformInformation network
Issues of Global GovernanceWTO Trade and Investment Negotiations.Global Financial Architecture.
IMF reformIMF reformFrom post-crisis rescue package to pre-crisis monitoring and dialogue.
Regional IMF?Environmental Issues.
Trade and environmentInvestment and environment
56
Investment and environmentGlobal market for environment?
Global IT Development.New International Organization?Make IT cooperation mainstream in ODA agenda
15
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems…..
57
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
Private ownership ofthe means of production
Primitive Market Economy
IT-driven Market Economy
Capitalism
Larger-scale-organization oriented Smaller-scale-organization oriented
12
3 4State ownership of
the means of production
Socialism Utopian Socialism
58
3 4
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
Private ownership ofthe means of production
Primitive Market Economy
IT-driven Market Economy
Capitalism
Industrial RevolutionImperialism
Larger-scale-organization oriented Smaller-scale-organization oriented
Socialist Revolution
IT RevolutionMonopoly Capitalism The US economy after the IT revolution
Industrialized China
Colonialism Primitive Economy
Market-oriented
Transitional
Informal Sector
State ownership ofthe means of production
Socialism Utopian Socialism
Linux
USSR
China under Mao Zedong(Maoist China)
State SocialismDevelopment Planning
59
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
Private ownership ofthe means of production
Primitive Market Economy
IT-driven Market Economy
Capitalism
Industrial Revolution
Larger-scale-organization oriented Smaller-scale-organization oriented
Socialist Revolution
IT Revolution
Globalization
MNCsProduction Networks (Nike model, VISIO model, etc.)
ICT Service Networks (IT, IE, SE, back office)Global Outsourcing…
Private Capital/Investment-Driven
State ownership ofthe means of production
Socialism Utopian SocialismGovernance
Quality of State
State Coordination Social Networks (community scale)Social Safety Net Provision
Economic InfrastructureSocial Network (national scale)Education-Human Resource DevelopmentProtecting the Environment
60
16
Gl b l Ch /I b lGlobal Changes/Imbalancesand Our Future Path …..
61
Global ImbalancesSum of the Absolute Values of CAB across Cos. / World GDP
= 2-3% (-1997 AFC)= near 6% (2006-2007)
62
Fig. 1: Global Imbalances
Saving-Investment Imbalances (CABs) of USA, Japan, and China（ratios to GDP, %） （billion US$)
400
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
‐1000
‐800
‐600
‐400
‐200
0
200
400
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
63
Source: Author's compilation from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008 .
‐8 USA Japan China USA Japan China
Fig.2: Global ImbalancesSaving-Investment Imbalances (CABs) of USA, OECD, and Developing Countries
（billion US$)
200
400
‐600
‐400
‐200
0
High Income OECD Cos.
Developing Cos.
East Asia and the Pacific
USA
64
Source: Author's compilation from World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008 .
‐1000
‐800
17
Fig.3: Resource Flows to Developing Cos.
250
300
50
100
150
200
Devloping Cos.
East Asia and the Pacific
China
65
Note: ’Aggregate Net Transfers’by the World Bank.Source: Author's compilation from World Bank, Global Development Finance 2008 .
‐50
0
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Age Dependency Ratio(dependents to working-age population, %)
90
100
Is Doomsday Imminent ?
40
50
60
70
80
90
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
40
50
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
Higih Income Cos. Japan
Low & Middle Income Cos. East Asia & Pacific LMICs
Determinants of the private saving ratio:Income (level), rates of return, uncertainty, domestic/foreign borrowing constraints, financial depth,fiscal policy, pension system, income/wealth distribution, and demographics …
Note: Assuming that Japan’s Total Fertility declines to 1 by 2035.
Ｇｌｏｂａｌ Ｉｍｂａｌａｎｃｅｓ Fig2とFig3を合わせて考えると, 途上国地域への資金フ
ローが急回復する中でも, 米国が多額の資金を途上国地域から吸い込んでいるため, 結果として途上国全体の資金イ （流入）と ウ （流出） バ は金インフロー（流入）とアウトフロー（流出）のバランスは, 先述したように2000年を境にアウトフロー超過に転じているという構図が浮かび上がる. 基軸通貨ドルを保有する米国は, こうした世界的な資金循環の仲介者として機能してきたのであるが, レバレッジの高い金融モデルに支えられた消費過剰（貯蓄減少）が行き過ぎたことにより, 結果と
して本来途上地域で投資活用されるべき世界の貯蓄も食して本来途上地域で投資活用されるべき世界の貯蓄も食いつぶしている. 確かに借金に支えられた高消費は,途上国を含めて世界に需要を振りまき, 各国の輸出を支えてきたことも確かではある. 経常収支と資本収支は基本的にはコインの裏表であるから.
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危機発生の理由アジア金融危機後の開発途上地域の一時的
な投資減退が, 貯蓄とのバランスから世界的な低金利を招き 比較的魅力的であった米国な低金利を招き, 比較的魅力的であった米国や欧州の金融セクターや国債・財務証券に資金が流れ込んだ. それが少しでも高リターンを求めて高レバレッジでかつリスクの高いサブ・プライムローン市場の拡大等の金融バブルを生んだのである 今回のグローバル金融危機生んだのである. 今回のグロ バル金融危機は, 世界の貯蓄・投資の不均衡（imbalances）の上に生まれた高リスク金融商品の管理が適切でなかったために起きたのである.
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多極化する世界世界の資金を引きつけてきた米国型金融モデル
と, それに支えられて米国の超過需要（消費超過）が世界に還流するという成長モデルが崩壊した）が世界に還流するという成長モデルが崩壊した今, 米国一極集中型の世界経済システム, 新古
典派経済学に裏打ちされた自由市場原理主義と民主主義の合体した「新自由主義」の拡散に根ざしたアメリカナイゼーションとしてのグローバリゼーションは, 間違いなく大きな転換点を迎えようとしている. 今後, 多極化していくグローバル社会は, 政府の役割を再認識し, 国際通貨・金融制度を
含めて多種多様な制度・システムの構築・再構築を迫られることになるだろう.
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必要な対策 このグローバル金融危機・経済危機への対処には, ①米
国の金融モデルの正常化と金融セクター改革・健全化, このサブ・プライムローンの毒を含んだ金融商品の多量保有を 欧 銀 タ 健全 う金融改有をしていた欧州の銀行セクターの健全化という金融改革, ②米国をはじめ先進国のみならず（このリスク性金融
商品には関係のない）多くの開発途上諸国の実物経済の立て直し（ケインジアン政策）とあわせて, ③世界的な不均衡や開発途上地域からの資金逆流を是正する新たな世界的な資金循環およびそれを支える国際金融システムの（再）構築という3つの政策パッケ ジが必要とされる（再）構築という3つの政策パッケージが必要とされる. 2009年半ばにおいて①,②が（開発途上国の実物経済立て直しにはさらに時間がかかるが）動き始めているが, ③の議論は今後G8サミットで頭出しが行われ, G20の枠組
みも巻き込んで議論されていかねばならない.70
今後の希望的観測 グローバルな不均衡を経常収支の絶対値（黒字でも
赤字でも）の世界総和の対世界GDP比で見た場合, 1997年のアジア金融危機まで2-3%で推移していたものが2006-7年には6%近くまで拡大していた. 今後この比率は, 米国の経常収支赤字がGDP比6%強から3-3.5%程度まで押さえられことに伴い, 4%程度までは低下すると見られている. これは米国の住宅・金融バブル崩壊に伴う民間貯蓄率の増大, 高レバレッジ金融モデルがレバレッジ率の低い金融モデルに（ジ金融モデルがレバレッジ率の低い金融モデルに（ある程度）収束していくことによる世界のクレジット市場のタイト化, 石油・資源・食料価格の沈静化等の要因によって引き起こされるはずである.
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システミック・リスク多極化が進む新しい世界の金融体制・資金循
環のなかで, 減少するとはいえなお多額の経
常収支赤字を出し続ける米国の国債をふくめ常収支赤字を出し続ける米国の国債をふくめた金融商品が魅力を失うことがあれば―大手金融機関やGM等製造業の救済財政コストが止めどなく拡大するなどして―ドル暴落と底な
しの世界金融危機に突入するリスクはなお厳然として存在している然として存在している.
米財政赤字は短期的には対ＧＤＰ比で少なくとも１０％を超す. 安定的な米国債保有者・購入者が必要とされる. 中国頼み？
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l lGlobalization and the Developing Countries
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The End …..
