Faculty of Management, Department of Investment and Real Estate

Prof. Henryk GawronŁukasz Strączkowski

Trends and changes in the development of the local housing market (on the example of the city of Poznań)

Stockholm – ERES 2009

The aim of the presentation

The aim of the presentation is to present the trends and changes of the situation on the local housing market in Poznań, taking into consideration the primary market (market of new housing units) and the secondary market (market of "used" housing units)

The source of data

• the results of researching offers of selling housing units on the secondary and primary market from the years 2000-2007

• the results of questionnaire research, conducted at the break of 2006 and 2007 on 466 people declaring their will for purchasing a housing unit on the local housing market in Poznan

• data from the Polish Central Statistical Office• earlier research of the Department of Investments and Real Estate of the

Poznan University of Economics

General information about Poznań

930 km

General information about Poznań

• Poznan is one of the largest cities in Poland• Poznan – the capital of voivodeship• the population living here amounts to approximately 560 thousand inhabitants• agglomeration of Poznan, together with the neighbouring places, amounts

to approximately 850 thousand people• Poznan – city of trade, small and medium business • beneficial economic parameters – good condition of labour market,

the income of the population one of the highest in the country• located in strategic place in Poland, on the Warsaw-Berlin route• relatively high position in Polish rankings in the scope of the attractiveness

of the city and further perspectives of development• in administration Poznan is divided in 5 large districts – Grunwald, Jeżyce,

Nowe Miasto, Stare Miasto and Wilda, but in order to notice some phenomena on housing market is divided in smaller housing area: The Centre (embracing the city centre and the oldest part of the city), Grunwald, Jeżyce, Piątkowo, Rataje, Wilda, Winogrady and others

• the housing resources in Poznań are relatively strongly diverse

General changes on local housing market

Investment structure of newly commissioned housing unitsSource: The Polish Central Statistical Office

changes in the structure of investors

changes in the technology of new built units

changes in the area of dwellings

statistical deficit of housing units oscillates around 15 thousand units

Barriers of investment activity

the monopolistic

position of media suppliers

lack of attractive lots for purchase

the low level of income

of society

lack of local plans of spatial

management

prolonged procedures of obtaining

building permits

Barriers

Prices

• relatively high availability of credits for purchasing a housing unit,

• concerns connected with the change of VAT from 7% to 22%,

• concerns connected with the liquidation of interest allowance,

• concerns connected with further dynamic increase of prices and the loss of ability for purchasing a housing unit in subsequent years.

Distribution of prices on the secondary housing market in the years 2000-2007

Motives for purchasing housing units

Decision factors for purchasing housing units

Differences between preferences and offer

Differences between preferences and offer

Summary

• the differences between preferences and offer are sometimes big, that’s why some of people decided to postpone the decision about buying a home

• too-high price of housing units and lack of appropriate incomes the most serious barriers of the development of the housing market in the opinion of people who declared to purchase a housing unit

• average dwelling buyer – young people

• people who come from one district of city are more often interested in buying a dwelling in this district – menthality

• of course these results refer to local housing market in Poznan and they are initial work to other research