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FAIR 2.1
Tool for analyzing mitigation commitments and costs of countries/regions for different post-2012 regimes
Michel den Elzen, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, associated with RIVM
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn2
Overview
• Part 1: General
• Part 2: FAIR 2.1 region
• Part 3: FAIR 2.1 country
• Part 4:“South-North dialogue” proposal compatible with 2oC quantification
• Part 4: Conclusions
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn3
Part 1: General
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn4
• To explore and evaluate the environmental and abatement costs implications of possible future international climate policy regimes for differentiation of mitigation commitments
• The model is not made to promote any particular regime, but to allow for comparing regimes in consistent and transparent way
• NB:– Developed to support long-term policy development, but also used for analysing near-term
policy issues
– Developed to support Dutch climate policy, but used / available for other Parties as well.
Objective FAIR 2.0
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn5
• Contents:– links “differentiation of commitments” to “adequacy of commitments– based on established science (IPCC)– includes many proposed regimes options– includes emission trading and costs
• Form:– PC computer model– geographical user interface– relatively simple to use– Interactive
Features of FAIR
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn6
Some proposals for climate change regimes– Brazilian Proposal (Brazil / RIVM)*
– Multi-criteria (CICERO)
– Multi-stage (RIVM)*
– Contraction & Convergence (Global Commons Institute)*
– Global Compromise (Benito Müller)*
– Multi-Sector Convergence (ECN/Cicero)
– (global) Triptych approach (UU)*
– South-North proposal
– (Convergence in) Emission-Intensities (targets)*
– Growth cap index (Ellerman, M IT)
– Jacoby rule (ability to pay) (MIT)*
– Soft landing (IEPE)
– Sectoral commitments / sectoral CDM
– SD-PAMs (University of Cape Town)
* Green = included in FAIR 2.0
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn7
• Strategy: different models for different target groups• General Public: web model version:
aims: orientation on the issue / education / capacity building conditions: for free; no commercial use; no technical support; no
publications without consent RIVM
– Policy Advisors: full model version (no access to code)aim: support other Parties in policy analysisconditions: on a case by case basis; licence agreement; limited
support; no commercial use; no publication without consent RIVM
– Research institutes: full model (access to code)aim: co-development of the model; scientific analysis / publicationsconditions: selected network partner; collaboration agreement;
contribution to development of model; no commercial use
FAIR model versions
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn8
Part 1: FAIR 2.0 model
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn9
Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Triptych approach
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission reduction objective
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn10
Datasets FAIR 2.0- internet version
• Historical emissions (1765-1995):– CDIAC (only CO2)
– EDGAR/HYDE (all non-CO2 GHGs)
• Baseline scenario– IMAGE 2.2 IPCC SRES scenarios
– IMAGE-POLES scenario
• Emission profiles– two global GHG emission profiles (550 CO2-eq and 650 CO2-eq.)
• Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) curves– MACs CO2: energy model (TIMER 1.0 - IMAGE)
– MACs non-CO2: GECS (European Commission)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn11
Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Triptych approach
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission reduction objective
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn12
Multi-Stage approachMulti-stage Approach (RIVM):
a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules Berk and den Elzen (2001), Climate Policy
Four stages (for non-Annex I):
Stage 1. No constraint
Stage 2. Intensity targets (threshold 1)
Stage 3. Stabilisation emissions (threshold 2)
Stage 4. Emission reduction targets (Annex I)
Policy choices: Threshold options: per capita income, per capita emissions Stabilisation period Burden-sharing options: income, emissions, per capita
emissions/income, etc.
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn13
Multi-Stage approach
Gradual participation and different type of commitments
• Example for S550e:– threshold 1: 20% ’90 Annex I per capita income
– threshold 2: 50% ‘90 Annex I per capita income
– 5-year stabilisation emissions
– contribution to reductions using burden-sharing key p.c. emissions
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn14
Global emission profile
Regional emissions targets
Regional GHG emissions after trade
Climate assessmentmodel
Per capita Convergence
Multi-stageapproach
emission intensity system
CLIMATE MODEL
Global emission profile
Abatement costs & permit price
DATASETS
EMISSIONS ALLOCATION MODEL
Mitigation costs & Emissions trade
EMISSION TRADE & COST MODEL
Historicalemissions
BrazilianProposal
Triptych approach
Baselinescenario
Emissionsprofile
MACs
FAIR 2.0 model
Global emission reduction objective
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn15
Abatement costs model
• Function:1.To calculate abatement costs (multi-gas)2.To calculate the buyers and sellers on the international permit
market3.To distribute the global emission reduction objective over the
different regions, gases and sectors following a least-cost approach, making use of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms.
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn16
• on the basis of Marginal Abatement Cost curves (MAC): 6 GHGs, 11 sectors and 17 world regions;
• MAC curves only represent direct costs, there is no direct link to GDP losses
• Assumption is made of international emission trading: full trading in case regions participate; limited trading for non-participants (CDM)
Methodology
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn17
Costs as % of GDP 550 CO2-eq vs. 650 CO2-eq.
Example:• S550e leads to much higher abatement costs than the S650e
(equivalent to 0.4% versus 0.05% of world GDP in 2025)• Costs are subject to considerable uncertainty (only baseline)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn18
Regional costs under C&C 2050 (S550e)
• Buyers and sellers on the market– India, Africa and China sellers; Rest buyers
• Large differences costs• Low-income non-Annex I regions gains for most regimes (up to 2%)
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn19
FAIR website: www.rivm.nl/fair
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn20
Part 3: FAIR 2.1 country model
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn21
Methodology: the FAIR 2.1 country modelBase year data (1990-2000):• Emissions: CAIT database• All Kyoto gases, excluding land use change and forestry,
including international transport
New: Future baseline scenarios for countries (population, GDP and emissions)
• IMAGE IPCC SRES scenarios at 17 regions• Using an improved downscaling method• Tries to deal with the limits of present down-scaling methods
Kyoto• USA implements its national target of 18% improvement in
emissions/GDP until 2012• Other Annex I countries follow Kyoto target
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn22
+35%+40%
+20%
+30%
- 5%
+10%
-45%
-25%
Multi-gas emission pathways meeting 2oC
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn23
Parameters of “South-North dialogue” proposal Region Configuration 400 ppm 450 ppm 500 ppm 550 ppm YearAnnex II EU-15: reduce below 1990 level 40% 35% 30% 25% in 2020
Others: reduce below 1990 level 33% 24% 15% 10% in 2020
Reduction after 2020 35% 31% 27% 24% per decadeAnnex I but not Annex II
Reduce below 1990 level 28% 24% 20% 20% in 2020
Reduction after 2020 38% 32% 24% 21% per decadeNewly industrialised countries (NIC)
Increase above 2000 level 30% 30% 30% 20% in 2020
Reduction after 2020 35% 28% 21% 17% per decadeReduce threshold NIC-RIDC 20% 20% 20% 10% per decade after
2020Rapidly industrialising countries RIDC)
Reduce below reference 16% 13% 10% 10% in 2020
Reduction below reference 40% 36% 20% 14% after 2020Reduce threshold RIDC-ODC 20% 20% 20% 10% per decade after
2020Other developing countries (ODC)
Follow reference
Least developed countries(LDCs)
Follow reference
Reduction requirements for meeting the different concentration levels
500ppm CO2-eq. is Political Willingness Scenario
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn24
Groups of regions change in time: 2020 .
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn25
Groups of regions change in time: 2030 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn26
Groups of regions change in time: 2040 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn27
Groups of regions change in time: 2050 – 550ppm
Gradual change towards NICs and RIDCs
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn28
Change compared to 1990 level in 2020
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2020
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Annex II Annex I -no An I
USA EU-25 Global
400 ppm450 ppm500 ppm550 ppmBaseline
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2020
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
NICs RIDCs OtherDCs
LDCs Global
• In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be reduced ~30-35% below 1990 levels for 400-450ppm• For meeting the 400/450 ppm NICs and RIDCs have to participate in the reductions between 2015 and 2025
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn29
Change compared to 1990 level in 2050
%-change compared 1990-level in 2050
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Annex II Annex I -no An I
USA EU-25 Global
%-change compared to 1990-level in 2050
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NICs RIDCs OtherDCs
LDCs Global
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn30
Reductions compared to baseline 2020 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn31
Reductions compared to baseline 2030 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn32
Reductions compared to baseline 2040 – 550ppm
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn33
Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm
Differentiated results between the Annex I and non-Annex I
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn34
Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 400ppm
High reductions for the Annex I and RIDCs and NICs, moderate reductions OCDs and LDCs
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn35
Reductions compared to baseline 2050 – 550ppm
Differentiated results between the Annex I and non-Annex I
Michel den Elzen, Countries’ mitigation commitments under the “South-North dialogue” proposal, SBSTA-22, Bonn36
Per capita emissions under 400 and 550 ppm CO2-equivalent scenario
CO2-eq. emissions per capita
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050time (years)
tCO2/cap.yr
Annex IIAnnex I -no An INICsRIDCsOther DCsLDCsUSAEU-25Global
400CO2-eq. emissions per capita
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050time (years)
tCO2/cap.yr
Annex IIAnnex I -no An INICsRIDCsOther DCsLDCsUSAEU-25Global
550