Fairbanks Residential Heating Fuel Cost Comparisons
Tom Carlson Sierra Research, Inc.
September 23, 2017
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Introduction – Space Heating Costs in Fairbanks are Significant and Varying
˃ Wintertime heating costs in Fairbanks are substantial compared to milder climates
˃ Space heating in the primary contributor to ambient PM2.5
˃ Historical fuel prices (especially heating oil) have varied significantly
˃ Given these variations, residents need access to current heating cost comparisons – not just fuel price comparisons
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$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Pric
e ($
per
gal
lon)
Nov/Dec of Indicated Calendar Year
Historical Fairbanks Heating Oil Prices
Source: FNSB, Community Research Quarterly (assumed 25%/75% split in #1 and #2)
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Which Cost More – Heating with Oil or Wood?
˃ Assuming you purchase wood (rather than cut your own) which is the cheaper fuel to heat with, heating oil or wood?
˃ Example #1: Central oil furnace vs. EPA-Certified non-catalytic stove (average 1,950 square foot home, winter 2016 prices)
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Which Cost More – Heating with Oil or Wood?
˃ Assuming you purchase wood (rather than cut your own) which is the cheaper fuel to heat with, heating oil or wood?
˃ Example #1: Central oil furnace vs. EPA-Certified non-catalytic stove (average 1,950 square foot home, winter 2016 prices)
˃ Answer -- Essentially the same:
Central oil furnace = $11.86 per winter day
Certified non-catalytic stove = $11.87 per winter day
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Which Cost More – Heating with Oil or Wood?
˃ Assuming you purchase wood (rather than cut your own) which is the cheaper fuel to heat with, heating oil or wood?
˃ Example #2: Central oil furnace vs. Uncertified wood stove
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Which Cost More – Heating with Oil or Wood?
˃ Assuming you purchase wood (rather than cut your own) which is the cheaper fuel to heat with, heating oil or wood?
˃ Example #2: Central oil furnace vs. Uncertified wood stove
˃ Answer:
Central oil furnace = $11.86 per winter day
Uncertified stove (avg. wood moisture) = $17.18 per winter day
Uncertified stove (dry wood) = $15.11 per winter day
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Space Heating Fuel Costs not Easily Comparable
˃ Reported units differ by fuel:
Wood - $ per cord
Oil - $ per gallon
Natural Gas - $ per ccf (100 cubic feet)
Coal - $ per ton
Electricity $ per kilowatt-hour
˃ Many on-line calculators do not reflect current Fairbanks prices, or the ability to evaluate future prices
˃ Other important factors include device efficiency and wood moisture
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Wood Heating Energy Affected by Moisture Content ˃ Wet wood has roughly half the heating energy of dry wood per
pound
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Reco
vera
ble
Heat
(BTU
/lb)
Wood Moisture (dry basis)
Recoverable Heat Energy vs. Wood Moisture
Dry,
seas
oned
Wet
, fr
eshl
ycut
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Device Heating Efficiency Differences are Important
˃ The amount of energy from each fuel that supplies heat (heating efficiency) varies significantly by device, especially solid fuel devices
˃ This factor not always considered when comparing energy costs across fuels and devices
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Space Heating Device Heating Efficiencies
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Need to Compare Heating Fuel Cost by Heating Energy, Device and Wood Moisture
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Gross EnergyFuel Price Content (BTU) Units
Wood, 36% MC $266.99 17,913,034 /cordPellets $292.00 16,000,000 /tonCoal $120.00 15,200,000 /tonHeating Oil $2.39 135,000 /gallonNatural Gas $2.02 101,000 /ccfPropane $3.88 91,333 /gallonSource : Fairbanks Research Community Quarterly, 2016
$14.95
$11.21$12.68
$10.49 $9.95$11.86
$13.38
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Fireplace, NoInsert
Woodstove -Non-EPACertified
Woodstove -EPA Cert.Catalytic
Pellet Stove(EPA
Certified)
HydronicHeater - EPA-
Certified
Coal Heater Central Oil(Wtd # 1 &
#2)
Natural Gas -Residential
Cost
($ p
er w
inte
r day
)Household Heating Cost per Winter Day
$115.35
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“Break-Even” Prices
˃ Wood prices historically more stable than oil
˃ Can calculate “break-even” price for oil (and other fuels) relative to more stable wood prices
˃ Example:
Average Wood Device costs $13.24 per winter day
Oil heating relative to the average wood device is cheaper up to $2.68 per gallon (the break-even price for oil)
˃ Break-even oil price will be higher for less efficient wood devices and lower for more efficient devices
˃ Can do more refined break-even estimate for any wood device
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Valuation of Pollutant Emissions
˃ It is also useful to compare pollutant emissions per heating dollar – informs residents seeking to reduce emissions in NA area
˃ Coal heaters and most wood device emit much more per heating dollar than heating oil or natural gas
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0.245
0.086
0.063
0.018
0.066
0.109
0.004 0.0010.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Fireplace, NoInsert
Woodstove -Non-EPACertified
Woodstove -EPA Cert.Catalytic
Pellet Stove(EPA
Certified)
HydronicHeater - EPA-
Certified
Coal Heater Central Oil(Wtd # 1 &
#2)
Natural Gas -Residential
Emiss
ions
(lb
) per
Dol
lar
Space Heating Emissions (lb) per Heating Dollar
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Solution: Borough-Based Cost Comparison Calculator
˃ Recommend development of on-line Fairbanks specific heating fuel cost calculator for use by residents in making informed heating fuel choices
˃ Functions/features could include:
Cost comparisons by fuel/device that account for efficiency and wood moisture ($ per heating BTU)
Cost/Emissions comparisons by fuel and device
Easily updated with current prices over time
Provides “break even” prices of solid vs. liquid/gaseous fuel
Optional monetization of “ease of use” issues (e.g., wood sweat equity)
˃ Goals: Easy-to-use, regularly updated, provide comparative true heating fuel costs (and pollutant impacts)
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