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Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

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Bernt Brodal, American Seafoods
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NorFishing August 15, 2012
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Page 1: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

NorFishing

August 15, 2012

Page 2: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Introduction

• Overview - American Seafoods

• Regulatory Environment and Resource Health – U.S Eastern Pollock Bering Sea Fishery

• Russian Pollock Fisheries

• Trends Impacting Seafood Prices

• Key Markets

1

Page 3: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

American Seafoods Company Overview

• Leading worldwide integrated seafood company

– Consolidated revenue of approximately $500 million

– Largest Harvester of fish for human consumption in the United States with 2011 harvest volume of more than 250,000MT

• We operate in some of the world’s best managed and sustainable fisheries

– Exclusive U.S. Bering Sea pollock fishing privileges results in high barriers to entry

– Also participate in Pacific Cod and Yellowfin sole fisheries in Alaska and the Pacific Hake fishery off the U.S. Pacific NW Coast

– All the fisheries that we participate in are certified as sustainable by the MSC

• Diverse revenue base

– Sales to U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and China

• Experienced management team

2

Page 4: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

3

At-Sea Processing

Harvesting and primary processing of pollock, Pacific cod, Pacific whiting (hake) and yellowfin sole

Largest harvester and at-sea processor of pollock, primarily in the U.S. Bering Sea

Revenue: $324 million (66% of consolidated total) (1)

Primary processing of scallops and secondary processing of seafood portions and fillets at New Bedford, MA facilities

Includes value added seafood portions, scallops and fillets

Important in gaining access to restaurant and supermarket industry

Recent acquisition of a competitor

Revenue: $165 million (34% of consolidated total )(1)

We Operate in Two Primary Business Segments

Land-Based Processing

(1) Year ended Dec. 31, 2011. Intersegment financial amounts allocated to segments based on each segments percentage of consolidated revenue or consolidated gross profit, respectively.

Page 5: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

4

State-of-the-Art Fleet of Vessels

5 active vessels – largest fleet in U.S. Bering Sea pollock fishery and in Pacific hake fishery

Finest in industry – all Det Norske Veritas

~300 feet in length; carry ~130 crew members

Capable of daily production of ~150 metric tons each

Nets designed to minimize environmental impact

Products: roe, surimi, fillet blocks, headed/gutted fish, fishmeal, fish oil

Maximize yield - Improved pollock flesh recovery rate from 23% in 2002 to between 28% and 30% currently

Pollock Catcher-

Processors

Other Vessels

5 vessels –

Selectively operate in P-cod and other fisheries

Two Extra C/P vessels provide excess capacity

No near-term need to purchase or rebuild any vessels

Page 6: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

5

Pollock – Leading Species for Human Consumption

Top Ten Fish Species – Global Production (1) U.S. Consumption (2)

(1) Source: FAO: “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture” – 2010. 2006 Data.

(2) Source: National Marine Fisheries Services (NMFS) data. 2010 Data.

(in millions of MT) (in pounds per capita)

Species Production Primary Usage

Anchoveta 7.4 Fishmeal

Pollock 2.7 Human Consumption

Atlantic Herring 2.5 Human Consumption & Fishmeal

Skipjack Tuna 2.4 Human Consumption

Chub Mackerel 1.9 Human Consumption & Fishmeal

Largehead Hairtail 1.4 Human Consumption & Fishmeal

Blue Whiting 1.3 Human Consumption & Fishmeal

Chilean Jack Mackerel 1.3 Human Consumption &Fishmeal

Japanese Anchovy 1.3 Human Consumption

Yellowfin Tuna 1.1 Human Consumption

Top Ten 23.3

Shrimp 4.0

Canned Tuna 2.7

Salmon 2.0

Tilapia 1.5

Pollock 1.2

Catfish 0.8

Crab 0.6

Cod 0.5

Pangasius 0.4

Clams 0.3

All Species 15.8

Top 10 Fishery Products

Consumed in USA

Page 7: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Regulatory Environment and Resource -

US Eastern Bering Sea Pollock Fishery

Page 8: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Abundant, Stable Pollock Fishery

7

Historical Catch 1986 to 2011 and Projected 2012 Pollock Quota (TAC) (1)

(Tons in millions)

TAC Biomass

(Tons in thousands)

(1) Catch data 2006 to 2010 per Dec. 2011 North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) Eastern Bering Sea pollock SAFE report, 2011 Catch data per National Marine Fishery Service Alaska Region Catch report, 2012 pollock TAC as published by NPFMC

(2) TAC and Biomass by year, per Dec. 2011 NPFMC Eastern Bering Sea pollock SAFE report

Biomass as compared to TAC levels(2)

25 Year Ave: 1.23MM MT

(2)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1.1

0.9

1.2 1.2

1.5

1.21.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0

1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

1.4

1.00.8 0.8

1.2 1.2

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Page 9: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

8

Attractive Regulatory Environment; Barriers to Entry

Coastal Villiages

Arctic StormStarbound Ltd.

Trident

Glacier

Fish Ltd.

American

Seafoods

45.9%

17.1%

15.5%

12.8%6.2%

2.5%

Catcher-Processor Pollock Allocation (1)(2) TAC Allocation (1)

(1) 2012 U.S. Bering Sea pollock TAC allocation.

(2) Includes allocations to catcher-processor vessels and catcher-vessels.

Total Allowable Catch (“TAC”)

1,212,000 MT

+ =

By-Catch (3% of TAC)

Directed Pollock Catch (“DPC”) (87% of TAC)

Alaska Community Development Quota

(“CDQ”) (10.0% of TAC)

Mothership (10.0% of DPC)

Inshore (50.0% of DPC)

Allocation 15.8% TAC

(18.4% DPC)

CDQ Purchase 1.9% TAC

Total 17.8% TAC

216,000 MT

Catcher-Processor (2) (40.0% of DPC)

ASG Share

of Quota

19 vessels named in American Fisheries Act – no other vessels may participate

Page 10: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Russian Pollock Developments

Page 11: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Russian Pollock Developments

• Russian Pollock harvest has been stable between 1.4 - 1.6 mill MT in recent years

• 2012 Harvest expected to stay on par with 2011 despite the 5.7% TAC increase. Fishing so far has been fairly good

• Coastal areas expected to continue to increase in TAC (coastal fish is mainly for domestic sales)– Sea of Okhotsk seem stable

• MSC certification experience continued delays…

10

Page 12: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Russian APO TAC vs. actual catch

11

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2009 2010 2011 2012E

Other Areas

N/S Kuril Is

W. Bering Sea

SOO

Total T A C

Catch in

Source: TINRO / RU AP Assoc.

Page 13: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Russian APO product mix trends

12

in MT 2009 2010 2011* 2012 trend

Fillet/Blocks 35,000 30,000 24,500 Stable

Mince 6,000 5,000 4,800 Stable

H/G 660,000 700,000 586,000 Stable to slight

increase

W/R 30,000 45,000 362,000 Stable to decrease

• Fillet/Blocks: the production of fillets and mince blocks is expected to remain fairly stable between 25,000 to 30,000 MT in 2012

• H/G: Production expected to remain stable → demand in China and Russian domestic market continue growing

• W/R: Production could decrease due to weaker demand in Africa. Main market continue to be Korea.

* Source: Russian APO Association

Page 14: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Market Trends

Page 15: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Global Trends Impacting Seafood

• Increasing Worldwide Demand For Protein

• Increasing Prices for Grain and Protein

• Consumers increasing focus on health benefits of Seafood

• Favorable Environmental impact of Wild caught seafood versus agriculture

14

Page 16: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Growing Demand for Protein

• World population increased from 6 billion in 2000 to 7 billion in 2011

• United Nations Predicts 8 Billion people by 2030 and 9 Billion by 2050

• Economic growth in developing world is resulting in increased caloric and protein consumption per capita

• Worldwide Food Demand May Double by 2050

• Increased fuel prices have resulted in:

– Increased demand for grain as a raw material to produce Biofuels

– Increasing cost to produce grain and protein products

15

Page 17: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

$ per bushel

Corn

Wheat

Soybeans

Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2020, February 2011.

“Corn, wheat and soybean prices projected to remain at historical highs through 2020” – USDA ERS

Page 18: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

$ per hundredweight, nominal, U.S. markets Beef cattle: Steers, 5-area

Broilers: 12-city market price

Hogs: National base

Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2020, February 2011

Higher grain prices will keep protein price inflation high

Page 19: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

18

Page 20: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Grain prices again at record levels

• Already high grain increase to record levels

• June 15 to August 2, 2012:

• Corn up 58%

• Soy up 23%

• Wheat up 40%

“According to an August Congressional Research Service report, feed costs account for 50 to 80 percent of cash

operating expenses in the U.S. livestock sector and U.S. feed grain demand has exceeded production

in all but one year since 2004.” – Agri-pulse, 9/14/11

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

6/15/2012 7/15/2012

CBOT Corn

CBOT Soy

CBOT Wheat

Page 21: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Healthfulness: Alaska pollock vs. other meat proteins

21.2

1 0.2

18.6

3.03 0.6

13.7

7.6

2.9

11.5 12

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Protein (g)/100 calories Fat (g) Saturated Fat (g)

AK pollock Chicken Pork Ground Beef

20

Source: www.nutritiondata.self.com/USDA

Page 22: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Ak pollock Omega 3 content higher than canned light tuna and much higher than other proteins (3 oz servings)

418

239

59.4 58 39.1

0

100

200

300

400

500

Omega 3 (mg)

AK pollock Canned Light Tuna Chicken Pork Ground Beef

21

Source: www.nutritiondata.self.com/USDA

Page 23: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Wild caught seafood has a minimal environmental impact compared to other proteins

Wild caught seafood:

• Generally has lowest carbon footprint of major protein choices

• No fertilizer is used in the production of wild-caught seafood

• We make our own freshwater to produce pollock

• No soil is lost in the production of wild caught seafood

• No pesticides or herbicides are used to produce pollock

22

Page 24: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Developments in Key Markets

Page 25: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Pollock has the most diverse market distribution of any major groundfish species.

Europe, 37%

Asia, 33%

North America, 17%

Russian domestic, 13%

Page 26: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

North American market trend

• Domestic demand for 1x frozen APO is increasing

• Demand much driven by more seafood focus from the QSR segment = when other proteins increase in price, seafood gets more attention

• More focus on quality products in retail/clubstore segment

• Healthier eating promoted by current administration

• USDA Procurement program ramping up 1x APO usage

Page 27: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

European market trend

• US 1x APO sales into Europe has to large degree not been affected by the European banking crisis

• Sales of fillet block based products is increasing in most key markets

• Demand for sustainable surimi increasing in France, Spain and Russia.

• Weakening EUR is a concern

Page 28: Fangst- og markedsutvikling for Alaska Pollack - Norfishing 2012

Asian market trend

• Demand for APO surimi has increased in Japan and Korea.

• China has become a net importer of surimi raw mat → demand expected to grow significantly in the years to come

• US QSR’s in Asia increase their demand for 1x APO

• Chinese domestic market for filet product has started to grow = great opportunities for wide range of APO based products


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