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Far and few between? The child-bearing decisions of Portuguese women
Author: Márton Varga
Conference on the Impact of Day-Care Services in Visegrad Countries. Budapest, 2012.
Amélia
-Born in 1961-Lives in Braga-Has 10 siblings
Madalena
-Born in 1958-Lives in Lisbon-Has 2 siblings
Sofia
-Born in 1965-Lives in Faro-No sisters or brothers
Can we predict their childbearing decisions?
QUESTIONS
Main source: Fertility and Family Survey
DATA and METHODOLOGY
How many children will women have?
When do they give birth?
Technique: Split-population survival estimation
Sample: 5484 Portuguese women (1947-79)
MAIN RESULTS
Education leads to delayed childbearing and a longer interval between the second and third birth. University graduates are more likely to have the third child.
More siblings are associated with a higher probability of having the second child.
Younger cohorts are more likely to postpone childbearing, to remain childless, and to have fewer children.
Changes in the unemployment rate and childcare availability do not influence fertility timing.
Mothers, who were older at their last delivery, have a lower probability of the consequent birth, but they wait less if they decide to have another child.
10% remain childless, 30 % stop at one child, while 70% stop at two children.
Education
Siblings
Cohort
Economy
Age at birth
Other
Birthplace, education and age at first birth explains who stops at one child.
Nick Parr (2007)
Women who delay are more educated and skilled.
Kasey Buckles(2008)
Childcare availability increases fertility.
Ronald R. Rindfuss et al. (2007)
Regional female unemployment leads to delayed childbearing.
Maria D. Gutiérrez(2008)
Split-population models for 3rd and 4th birth.Focus on sex composition, age at first birth, and father’s
occupation.
Edith Gray et al. (2010)
MOTIVATION
0.0
00.2
50.5
00.7
51.0
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
QUARTERS
FIRST BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
0.0
00.2
50.5
00.7
51.0
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
QUARTERS
SECOND BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
0.0
00.2
50.5
00.7
51.0
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
QUARTERS
THIRD BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
FIGURE 1. KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL ESTIMATESNote: Duration is measured from the age of 14 and from the 3rd quarter after the last birth.
(1 )𝑆 (𝑡 )=1−∫0
𝑡
𝑓 (𝑠 )𝑑𝑠=1−𝐹 (𝑡 )=𝜋 𝐹𝑢(𝑡 )
(2 ) 𝜋=𝑒−𝑒(𝛼′ 𝑋+𝜀)
(3 ) 𝑓 𝑢 (𝑡 )=𝑒−( 𝛽 ′𝑍 )𝜎 [𝑒−(𝛽 ′𝑍 )𝑡 ]𝜎𝜅−1𝑒− [𝑒−( 𝛽 ′ 𝑍 )𝑡 ]𝜎
Γ (κ)
Important• means lower probability of
NOT having another child.• means longer waiting time.
(4) ln𝑇=𝛽′ 𝑍+1𝜎𝜈
THE SPLIT-POPULATION MODEL
TABLE 3 - TRANSITION TO THE THIRD BIRTHα β
Secondary 0.054 0.592**(0.241) (0.265)
University 1.286*** 0.808**(0.379) (0.361)
One -0.147 -0.381(0.262) (0.284)
Two 0.082 -0.109(0.263) (0.284)
Three or more 0.396* -0.221(0.234) (0.249)
Born 1960-79 -0.310*** -0.062(0.111) (0.152)
Unemployment change -0.016(0.062)
Childcare change -0.012(0.018)
Age at second birth -0.181*** -0.040**(0.013) (0.016)
Constant 4.076*** 2.738***(0.403) (0.517)
District dummies YES YESPeriod effects NO YESln σ -0.121
(0.086)
κ 0.401**(0.188)
Log-likelihood -2310.73Number of subjects 2101Observations 18,169Note: Standard errors in parentheses. ***Significant at 1%. **Significant at 5%. *Significant at 10%.
Education
Siblings
Cohort
Economy
Age at birth
Amélia
-Born in 1961-Lives in Braga-Has 10 siblings-Received primary education-Second child at 20
Madalena
-Born in 1958-Lives in Lisbon-Has 2 siblings-Attended university-Second child at 28
Sofia
-Born in 1965-Lives in Faro-No sisters or brothers-Finished secondary school-Second child at 27
Probability of stop at two
children33.9%
Probability of stop at two
children81.7%
Probability of stop at two
children86.3%
70.4% stop at two children
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
QUARTERS
THIRD BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
Results are robust
Deserves more investigation
Results are plausible
FINAL REMARKS
Thank you for the attention!
TABLE 1 - TRANSITION TO THE FIRST BIRTHα β
Secondary -0.183 0.373***(0.113) (0.042)
University 0.072 0.571***(0.214) (0.075)
One -0.087 -0.004(0.121) (0.046)
Two 0.010 -0.008(0.123) (0.047)
Three or more -0.114 -0.096**(0.107) (0.041)
Born 1960-79 -0.149** 0.000(0.060) (0.036)
Unemployment change -0.024**(0.011)
Childcare change -0.006(0.004)
Constant 0.876*** 2.774***(0.119) (0.053)
District dummies YES YESPeriod effects NO YESln σ -0.956***
(0.039)κ 0.516***
(0.053)Log-likelihood -11042.97Number of subjects 5484Observations 63,593Note: Standard errors in parentheses. ***Significant at 1%. **Significant at 5%. *Significant at 10%.
Education
Siblings
Cohort
Economy
TABLE 2 - TRANSITION TO THE SECOND BIRTHα β
Secondary -0.030 0.010(0.093) (0.067)
University 0.078 -0.119(0.140) (0.095)
One 0.229** 0.070(0.113) (0.079)
Two 0.348*** 0.085(0.116) (0.082)
Three or more 0.427*** 0.051(0.102) (0.069)
Born 1960-79 -0.209*** -0.097(0.070) (0.071)
Unemployment change 0.015(0.027)
Childcare change -0.007(0.008)
Age at first birth -0.074*** -0.046***(0.008) (0.006)
Constant 1.904*** 2.916***(0.221) (0.197)
District dummies YES YESPeriod effects NO YESln σ -0.700***
(0.062)
κ 1.489***(0.123)
Log-likelihood -6108.71Number of subjects 3353Observations 21,139Note: Standard errors in parentheses. ***Significant at 1%. **Significant at 5%. *Significant at 10%.
Education
Siblings
Cohort
Economy
Age at birth
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
QUARTERS
FIRST BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
0.0
5.1
.15
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
QUARTERS
FIRST BIRTH HAZARDh(t)
FIGURE 1. FIRST BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATESNote: Duration is measured from the age of 14.
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
QUARTERS
SECOND BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
0.0
5.1
.15
0 4 8 12 16
QUARTERS
SECOND BIRTH HAZARDh(t)
FIGURE 2. SECOND BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATESNote: Duration is measured from the 3rd quarter after the first delivery.
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
QUARTERS
THIRD BIRTH SURVIVALS(t)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
50 4 8 12 16 20
QUARTERS
THIRD BIRTH HAZARDh(t)
FIGURE 3. FIRST BIRTH TIMING, KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL AND SMOOTHED HAZARD ESTIMATESNote: Duration is measured from the 3rd quarter after the second delivery.