Presented to: 2009 NAS Performance Workshop
By: Joseph Post, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning
Date: April 15 2009
Federal AviationAdministrationFast-Time Simulation
of the Benefits of NextGenProcesses andPontifications
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
ATO Organizational ContextChief Operating Officer (COO)
Hank KrakowskiAJO-0
Sr. VPStrategy & Performance
John L. PipesAJG-0
Sr. VPNextGen & Ops. Planning
Victoria CoxAJP-0
Sr. VPFinance
Gene JubaAJF-0
VPSystem OperationsNancy Kalinowski
AJR-0
VPEn Route & OceanicRick Ducharme (A)
AJE-0
VPTechnical Operations
Teri BristolAJW-0
VPTerminal
Steve OsterdahlAJT-0
VPService Center
Walt Cochran (A)AJV-0
VPTechnical Training
Shawn ClarkAJL-0
VPAcquisition & BusinessJames H. Washington
AJA-0
VPSafety
Bob TarterAJS-0
Sr. VPOperationsRick Day
AJN-0
Systems Engineering & Safety
James WilliamsAJP - 1
Research & Tech. DevelopmentBarry Scott
AJP - 6
WJH OfficeWilson Felder
AJP - 7
AdministrationBrenda Willingham
AJP - 8
ComptrollerMolly Vorce
AJP - 9
NextGen Integration & Implementation
Mike RomanowskiAJP - A
Aviation WeatherKen Leonard
AJP - B
Joint Planning & Development (JPDO)
Charles LeaderAJP - C
NextGen Systems Analysis
Joseph Post (A)AJP - D
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
FAA NextGen Portfolio
Transformational ProgramsADS-BSWIMNextGen Data CommunicationsNextGen Network Enabled WeatherNAS Voice SwitchRNAV/RNP
41 Mid-Term Capabilities
Airfield Improvements
New Runways
Runway Extensions
Airfield Reconfigurations
7Solution Sets
TBOHigh Density AirportsFlexible Terminal & AirportsCATMReduced Weather ImpactSafety, Security, & Environ.Transform Facilities
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Example: TBOInitiate Trajectory-Based Operations
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
NextGen Portfolio Modeling
• Estimates the operational benefits of NextGen improvements• National in scope
– Uses FAA NAS-wide simulation environment• Fully-integrated model accounting for interaction effects• NextGen "capability" and airport runway focus
– Capital programs implied• Ten year projection• Incorporates latest APO operations & fleet forecasts• Builds on more detailed capability-level analyses• Continuous validation and refinement
Objective: To develop a modeling environment that can be used for NextGen
trade studies and investment decision-making
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Analytical Process
Examine NextGen Implementation Plan (NGIP), Enterprise Architecture (EA)
Identify benefits mechanisms of NextGen Capabilities / OIs
Relate benefits mechanisms to model parameters and inputs
Exercise model
Compare results with baseline (“do nothing”) case
Compare model results with historical data
Modify model to address shortcomings
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Modeling Framework
FutureScheduleGenerator
ORD Forecast Operations
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Ann
ual O
pera
tions
Operations Forecast
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008
2009
2010
20112012
2013
2014
20152016
2017
2018
Num
ber
of A
ircr
aft
Fleet Forecast
ETMS DataChicago O'Hare (ORD) - Spring Quarter Peak Day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Local Hour
Ope
ratio
ns (/
15 m
in. e
poch
)
2007 Baseline Cap 2015_Baseline 2015-Trimmed
UnconstrainedSchedules
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Departures (/hr)
Arr
lival
s (/h
r)
VMCMMCIMC
Airport Capacities
Chicago O'Hare (ORD) - Spring Quarter Peak Day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Local Hour
Ope
ratio
ns (/
15 m
in. e
poch
)
2007 Baseline Cap 2015_Baseline 2015-TrimmedIndustry/RegulatorResponse
ConstrainedSchedules
QueuingModel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Ann
ual D
elay
(mill
. min
)
BaselineRunwaysNextGen
Sector Capacities
Delay
TrajectoryModel
Aircraft Performance
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Fuel
Con
sum
ptio
n (b
illio
n ga
l)
422
442
462
482
502
522
542
562
582
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(bill
ion
lb)
BaselineRunwaysNextGen
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Fuel
Con
sum
ptio
n (b
illio
n ga
l)
422
442
462
482
502
522
542
562
582
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(bill
ion
lb)
BaselineRunwaysNextGen
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Fuel
Con
sum
ptio
n (b
illio
n ga
l)
422
442
462
482
502
522
542
562
582
CO
2 Em
issi
ons
(bill
ion
lb)
BaselineRunwaysNextGen
Fuel Burn
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Metrics• Flights accommodated
– NextGen allows more operations at capacity-constrained airports
• Delay– Gate push-back– Departure runway/fix queuing– Sector queuing– Arrival fix/runway queuing
• Fuel Burn– Origin to Destination– US airspace
• CO2– Jet A savings converted to CO2 using multiplier of 21.095 lb/gal
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Experiment Design
Three cases typically examined:1. "Do nothing"
– 2007 airport capacities, technologies, and procedures
2. "Concrete Only"– New runways, runway extensions, and airport
configurations included as they are projected to occur3. NextGen ≡ Concrete + ATM Improvements
– New runways, runway extensions, and airport configurations included as they are projected to occur
– NextGen technologies and procedures also included
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Airports Represented in NASPAC• Arrival/departure capacities for 110 airports
– All other airports assumed to have infinite capacity• VFR traffic included at subset of 73 airports• NextGen procedural/technological improvements at
OEP 35 airports
OEP AirportsOther Airports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Departures (/hr)
Arr
lival
s (/h
r)
VMCMMCIMC
Washington Dulles InternationalAirport Capacities
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Airspace Modeled• All IFR flights in US airspace• 939 airspace elements "capacitated"
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Runway Project Assumptions
Airport improvement assumed to take effect the first full year following that indicated. AJP makes no claims about the need for, or benefits of, these projects.
New runway 2017
New runway 2010
Runway extension 2013
New runway 2017
New runway 2009;New runway 2017
Runway extension 2009
New runway 2013
Airport redesign 2009-13
New runway 2013
New runway 2009
Runway relocation 2011
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NextGen Improvements
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Demand and Weather• Historical traffic and weather data
used to generate future scenarios– Sufficient number and scope of historical
days needed for accurate annualizationof effects
• Variables to consider– Traffic (i.e., demand)
• Weekly, seasonal, and regional variation– Weather
• Surface weather (ceiling, visibility),convective weather, winds, etc.
• Eight days used to represent year– High demand (weekday), low demand (weekend)– Four seasons
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Sources of Uncertainty• Modeling limitations
– Airport capacities– Arrival/departure fix constraints & TRACONs – Traffic Flow Management (TFM)– Controller workload and sector capacity– Weather effects– Etc.
• Demand forecasting– Economic growth– Operator response
• Route network• Scheduling• Fleet evolution• Mergers and acquisitions
• NextGen Capabilities– Schedule– Effectiveness– Equipage
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Typical Test Matrix
8 daysx 11 years
x 3 treatments
264 model runs
FY18
8/30/2007
8/18/2007
6/23/2007
4/19/2007
3/15/2007
1/21/2007
12/10/2006
10/19/2006
FY17FY16FY15FY14FY13FY12FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07 FY18
8/30/2007
8/18/2007
6/23/2007
4/19/2007
3/15/2007
1/21/2007
12/10/2006
10/19/2006
FY17FY16FY15FY14FY13FY12FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07
No runway or ATM enhancementsNew runways onlyNew runways and ATM enhancements
Seed Year
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NextGen Modeling Next Steps• Regular annual update
– Jan. 2009 traffic forecast– New fleet forecast– Review airport infrastructure assumptions– New NextGen Implementation Plan
• Model enhancements– Improved airport capacities
• Accommodate multiple airport configurations• Update capacities for “next 30” airports
– Local airfield weather effects– Revised itinerary algorithm and input data distributions– GDP function– En route weather– Other improvements?
• Arrival/departure fix constraints• Airspace capacity models
– Sectors, TRACONs• Improve trajectory module
– STARs, DPs, fuel burn• Oceanic constraints
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Changing Traffic Forecasts (1 of 2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Ope
ratio
ns (m
illio
ns)
Jan. 2008 TAF
Dec. 2008 TAF Update
Forecast Operations at OEP 35 Airports
12%
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Changing Traffic Forecasts (2 of 2)
2%
-14%
-13%
-24%
0%
-27%
0%
-2%
-10%
-11%
-17%
-7%
-18%-17%
-9%
-21%
-26%
-21%
-6%
-16%
-19%
-11%
-7%
-10%
-7%
-12%
-9%
-19%
-13%
-15%
-6%
-8%
-14%-14%
-16%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
AT
L
BO
S
BW
I
CL
E
CL
T
CV
G
DC
A
DE
N
DF
W
DT
W
EW
R
FL
L
HN
L
IA
D
IA
H
JF
K
LA
S
LA
X
LG
A
MC
O
MD
W
ME
M
MIA
MS
P
OR
D
PD
X
PH
L
PH
X
PIT
SA
N
SE
A
SF
O
SL
C
ST
L
TP
A
Ch
an
ge in
2018 F
orecast O
peratio
ns (%
)Change in Forecast Operations, OEP 35 Airports
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Delay Projections, Jan. 2008 TAF
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Del
ay (m
ill. m
in.)
v5d Baselinev5d Runwaysv5d NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Delay Projections, Dec. 2008 TAF
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Del
ay (m
ill. m
in.)
v5d Baselinev5d Runwaysv5d NextGenv6 Baselinev6 Runwaysv6 NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
NextGen Delay Benefit (1 of 2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Del
ay B
enef
it (m
ill. m
in.)
v5d, Baseline-NextGenv6, Baseline-NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
NextGen Delay Benefit (2 of 2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Fiscal Year
Tota
l Del
ay B
enef
it (m
ill. m
in.)
v5d, Runways-NextGenv6, Runways-NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
If we can’t model the current system, how can we model
this thing?
NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Back-up
Slides
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
Throughput and Delay
NextGen
Current Throughput
Delay
Operations
Baseline
ThroughputGained
Current operating
point
Futureoperating
Point, w/o NextGen
Future Delay,with NextGen
Future Throughput,
w/o NextGen
Future Delay,w/o NextGen
Future Throughput,with NextGen
DelayAvoidedCurrent
Delay FutureoperatingPoint, with NextGen
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NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009
MAP Values
SectorCrossings
SectorEntry/Exit
Times CoreQueuingModel
FlightDelays
SectorCapacities
Airport Capacities
Pareto Curves
Wx
NASPAC Model
CapacityScheduler
Modeling Framework
JavaTrajectory
Module
4DTrajectories
WindField
TAF
ETMS
ConstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)Industry/RegulatoryResponse
UnconstrainedTraj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
Delay WxUnsatisfied
Demand
FutureScheduleGenerato
r
ASPM,WITI
PFuel Burn Rate
D Fuel Burn, Delay
CDAAnalysi
s
ETMSD Fuel Burn,CDA
D Fuel Burn
S
D CO2