Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Technical and Economical

Feasibility Study of Nuclear

Power Plant and Water

Desalination Plant for Jordan

Ned Xoubi, PhDJordan Atomic Energy Commission

ھيئــة الطـاقـة النوويـة ا�ردنيـة,الدكتور نضال الزعبيA presentation to IAEA Pre-project Experts Mission

June, 6, 2006

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

OUTLINE

�� Introduction ..... JordanIntroduction ..... Jordan

�� Current Power Generation and Future Current Power Generation and Future

DemandsDemands

�� Current Water Situation and Future Current Water Situation and Future

DemandsDemands

�� Why NuclearWhy Nuclear

�� Feasibility StudyFeasibility Study

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Total Area: 89,544 sq. km

Land area 88,802 sq. km

About 80% is dessert

INTRODUCTION

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Population 5,350,000 (2004)

27285.5%4573sub total

1442.5%135Madaba

16814.9%799Zarqa

27038.3%2047Amman

2932.3%123Ajlun

3186.7%356Balqa

3933.0%161Jarash

60617.8%952Irbid

Density # / Sq km(%)(000)Governorate

POPULATION DENSITY

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

FACTS & FIGURES

200519.5As % of GDP

2005$2,339 Individual Income

2004$2,133 GDP per Capita

200523.9As % of Imports

2005$2,500Energy Imports (million)

20043.40%Inflation Rate

200412.60%GDP growth rate

2005$12,842 GDP (million)

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Jordan’s political stability and economic prospects depend heavily on Jordan’s ability to find realistic solutions to

Rapid increase in Energy Demands

Scarce water resources

The Big Challenge

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Jordan Electricity

Consumption and Demand

Electricity Consumption will double in 11 years

8,089 (GWh) in 2004 15,077 (GWh) 2015

Source MEMR, Jordan

Electricity Consumption (GWh)

0

2000

4000

60008000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

We need at least

810 MW(e) power plant with 100% availability

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Electrical Energy Consumption by Sector 2005

Houshold

34%

Others

2%

Street Lighting

3%WaterPumping

15%

Commercial

15%

Industrial

31%

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Total Net Electricity

Generation, 1980-2003

KWh per capita / month

Jordan 125

Israel 737

= 4200 / 8200 MW(e)

Source Energy Information Administration, DOE, USA

We need at least

6 /12 Nuclear power plant (700MW(e) )

Total Net Electricity Generation (TWh)

0

1020

3040

5060

7080

90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Jordan

Israel

Finland

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Jordan NEPCO electrical production cost vs.

Jordan cost

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Jordan is one of the ten most water-deprived countries in the world

A child born in 1960 entered the country where fresh water available

annually was around 530 CM per capitaBy the year 2025, that amount will have diminished to 91 CM per capita

a drop of over 80%

WATER CHALENGE

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

The average U.S. citizen has more than 9,000 cubic meters of fresh water available per year, The average Jordanian citizen has less than 157 CM/year (All uses)

The average Jordanians pays 3% of GDP/capita for water among the highest percentages in the world

The rate in Europe and USA is 0.5 - 1.0%

A Precious Commodity

Source WAJ

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Water Supply for Household and

Municipal Purposes

525,353,200276Total

72499,80036.2South

391,484,80057.2North

543,363,600182.6Middle

per capitapopulationmillionRegion

Water supply for household and municipal purposes (MCM), 2004

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Total Demand, Available Sources

and Deficit in MCM

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

MCM

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Demand

Sources

Deficit

Projected Water Demand

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

$1.01Total cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water

$0.66O&M cost of water per cubic meter based on billed water

Water Cost

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

F 1280: AWSA-2 OBSERVATION WELL

AZRAQ BASIN

PGE: 323783 PGN : 147863 ALT : 514m TD: 195 Aquifer: Bs+B4 Type: Recorder

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

DATE

S.W

.L [

m b

gl]

SWL (m bgl)

Groundwater depletion due to over exploitation in Azraq Basin

Groundwater Depletion

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Ec trend with time in AWSA15

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Time (yrs)

EC

(

Salinity increase in groundwater due to overexploitation

Water Quality

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

To conduct a feasibility study aiming at providing a long term solution for a sustainable source of electricity and fresh water in Jordan, at an economical price.

Project Objective

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Is nuclear power a viable option to fulfill the energy and water needs of Jordan ?

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Production of a comprehensive report that contains the eleven outputs which are believed to cover all aspects of deciding to use nuclear energy in Jordan. The report should help the decision maker, energy planners and power generation companies make a clear decision as to the viability of using nuclear energy as an energy source.

Study … Comprehensive ….. Credible

…… Solid ……. Clear …….Scientific

Outcome …

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Study Outputs

1. Criteria for selecting a suitable reactor type

2. Nuclear fuel selection criteria

3. Nuclear power plant design criteria

4. Nuclear plant sitting criteria and available areas

5. Assessment of Jordan qualified technical manpower, and nuclear knowledge

6. Jordan public and governmental acceptance of nuclear power

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Study Outputs

7.7. Assessment of regional and international political Assessment of regional and international political

positions to building a nuclear power plant in positions to building a nuclear power plant in

JordanJordan

8.8. Jordan projected future needs of energy demandsJordan projected future needs of energy demands

9.9. Economics of using nuclear energy compared to Economics of using nuclear energy compared to

other conventional energy sources, in light of other conventional energy sources, in light of

increasing fuel prices.increasing fuel prices.

10.10. Jordan projected future needs of fresh water Jordan projected future needs of fresh water

demandsdemands

11.11. Jordan economic climate and market willingness Jordan economic climate and market willingness

to invest in nuclear powerto invest in nuclear power

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Electricity

�� Electricity production capacity AnalysisElectricity production capacity Analysis

�� Demand analysisDemand analysis

�� Energy demand modeling and computationsEnergy demand modeling and computations

�� Electrical Demand projectionElectrical Demand projection

�� Electrical grid map markingElectrical grid map marking

�� Nuclear cost analysisNuclear cost analysis

�� Economic modelingEconomic modeling

�� Energy cost comparisonEnergy cost comparison

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

WaterWater

�� Fresh water resources analysisFresh water resources analysis

�� Demand analysisDemand analysis

�� Water demand modeling computationsWater demand modeling computations

�� Demand projectionDemand projection

�� Desalination !!Desalination !!

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Questions