Features of Natural Disaster Risk -...

Features of Natural Disaster Risk

Hirokazu TatanoDisaster Prevention Research

Institute, Kyoto University

Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008

Economics of Natural Disaster, April 16, 2008Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University

Hirokazu Tatano

ContentsNatural Disaster in the WorldNatural Disaster in Japan Features of Natural Disaster RiskHow can we deal with this risk?: HFA


Hirokazu Tatano

Great Natural Disasters in the World

Source: Munich RE. 2005


Hirokazu Tatano

Economic losses and insured losses with trend

Source: Munich RE. 2005


Hirokazu Tatano

Trend of Natural Disaster in the worldTrend of Natural Disaster in the world

Larger catastrophic disaster is more likely to occur.

Number of Disaster for which some international aid is executed. 60s：90s=1:3

Economic losses glowed in high rate60s：90s= 1:9

Insured losses increased in higher rateAnti-catastrophe insurance available in high-income countries60s：90s =1：16


Hirokazu Tatano

What is happening?

Increase in exposure : Population and assets are concentrating to hazardous area

Vulnerability : Population and assets have not enough resistance against natural hazards


Hirokazu Tatano

Natural Hazard →DisasterConsequences ofHuman Behavior

Hazard: Flood, Earthquakes,,etc

Population & AssetExposure：population and asset

exposed to the threat of natural hazards

Vulnerability: degree of resistance of the asset & population against disaster


Hirokazu Tatanohttp://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/population/urbanization.htm

Urban population is dominating in the world


Hirokazu Tatano

Higher vulnerability in less income countries

Source: Munich Re. 2005

Large natural disasters over period 1980- 2005


Hirokazu Tatano

Proactive CounterProactive Counter MeasuresMeasures ofofDisasterDisaster Risk ManagementRisk Management

R isk C ontro lR isk C ontro l

R isk F inanceR isk F inance

R isk A vo idance/P revention

L and use R egulation



M itiga tionsB uilding codeH igh-T ech. Instrum ents:

(A ctuator, dum per, etc)

M itiga tionsB uild ing codeH igh-T ech. Instrum ents:


R isk T ransferInsuranceA R T , C at-B ond


R isk A cceptanceB uilding R isk R eserveSelf-Insurance, C aptiveF inite, etc

R isk A cceptanceB uild ing R isk R eserveSelf-Insurance, C aptiveF inite, etc

A ctions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses

A ctions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process































































Benefit of Mitigation can be different. It depends on the possibility of risk transfer [ Kobayashi & Yokomastu2000].

Combination of Risk control and financing measure is important!

Needs for integration


Hirokazu Tatano

Smaller insurance coverage natural disaster losses in lower income countries

Source: Munich Re. 2003

Large natural disasters over period 1980- 1999


Hirokazu Tatano

Proactive risk financing is less used in developing countries

Source: Warner 2005.


Hirokazu Tatano

Current and ideal disaster risk management counter measures in developing countries

Source: Warner 2005.


Hirokazu Tatano

Observations and IssuesDisaster related losses are increasing in the world.Less developed countries are more vulnerable and have less insurance coverage. Proactive disaster risk management is ideal but difficult in practice in developing countries.

How can we overcome such problems?

Natural Disasters in Japan

A Natural disaster-prone country


Hirokazu Tatano

Japan, 95,21%

Other, 359,79%

Japan, 96,11%

Other, 743,89%

Number of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger

• Japan covers only 0.25% of the land area on the grove, the number of earthquakes and distribution of active volcanoes is quite high.

• 20% of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger were occurredin Japan.

• 10% of active volcanoes is located in Japan.

Number of active volcanoes

JAPAN: A Disaster-Prone Country


Hirokazu Tatano

Epicenters of Earthquakes which were magnitude 4.0 or above from 1980 to 1996

International Seismological Centre


Hirokazu Tatano

The Number of Deaths and Missing in Natural Disasters in JapanTonankai

quakeHanshin-Awaji

earthquakeFukui quake Typhoon

Ise-wan

Weather Related Disasters


Hirokazu Tatano

Amount of Damage of Facilities due to Disasters

Annual Dam

age

Percentage in the GD

P

Percentage in the GDP

Amount of Damage of Facilities

(billion Yen)


Hirokazu Tatano

Disaster Relief Act (1947)

1943 Tottori Earthquake 1,083

1944 Tohnankai Earthquake 1,223

1945 Mikawa Earthquake 2,306

1945 Typhoon Makurazaki 3,756

1946 Nankai Earthquake 1,443

Large Earthquakes struck Japan during 1940s.

Government’s relief policy was established


Hirokazu Tatano

Large scale flood disasters frequently happened from 1930s to 1950s.

YearYear--Mon.Mon. CauseCause DeathDeath MissingMissing CausalityCausality

1934.91934.9 MurotoMurotoTyphoonTyphoon

27022702 334334 1499414994

1945.91945.9 MakurazakiMakurazakiTyphoonTyphoon

24732473 12831283 24522452

1947.91947.9 Catharine Catharine TyphoonTyphoon

10771077 853853 15471547

1954.91954.9 ToyamaruToyamaruTyphoonTyphoon

13611361 400400 16011601

1959.91959.9 IsewanIsewan TyphoonTyphoon 46974697 401401 3892138921

http://www.ffortune.net/social/seso/nihon-mei/muroto-taihu.htm


Hirokazu Tatano

High Tide Disaster by Isewan Typhoon in 1959

http://www12.freeweb.ne.jp/photo/ajapskwn/saigai/p02.htmlhttp://www12.freeweb.ne.jp/photo/ajapskwn/saigai/p02.html


Hirokazu Tatano

Disaster Management Policy

Needs for change of the policy from reactive to proactive approach.In 1961, the Disaster Countermeasure Basic Act was legislated.


Hirokazu Tatano

Disaster Countermeasure Basic Act (1961)

The immense damage caused by the Typhoon Ise-wan in 1959 was a turning point for disaster management, giving rise to a movement to plan and prepare a comprehensive disaster management system, and in 1961, the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act was enacted. Thereafter, the disaster management system has been improved and strengthened following the occurrence of large natural disasters and accidents.


Hirokazu Tatano

Change in Disaster Management Related Budget


Hirokazu Tatano

Changes in Disaster Management Budget by Category Classification


Hirokazu Tatano

Regional Disaster Prevention Plan

Triggered by Isewan disaster and enforced. Every level of public sectors shall have a plan by disaster prevention basic act (legal duty).A plan shall include long-term establishment plan on (1) forecasting system, (2) facilities for flood fighting, (3) warning criteria, (4) rescue system, and (5) communications in emergency.


Hirokazu Tatano

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, 1995

Effective Disaster Response is required.

Rapid Response, Information systems, Crisis Management, etc


Hirokazu Tatano

Disaster Management SystemsOrganizational Change in the National Government

At the time of the reorganization of the Central Government in 2001, the Cabinet Office undertook the administrative duties for disaster management. The Director-General for Disaster Management is mandated to undertake basic policy making and planning, coordinate the activities of all ministries and agencies and respond to large-scale disasters. In addition, the position“Minister of State for Disaster Management” was newly established as the Minister State for Special Missions.

Disaster Information SystemsDisaster Management Related Communication Network

Etc.


Hirokazu Tatano

Disaster ManagementRadio Communications System


Hirokazu Tatano

Trend of Natural Disaster in the worldLarger catastrophic disaster is more likely to occur.

Number of Disaster for which International Aid is executed. 60‘s：90’s=１：３

Economic losses glowed in high rate60‘s：90’s= １：９

Insured losses increased in higher rateAnti-catastrophe insurance available in advanced countries60‘s：90’s =１：16


Hirokazu Tatano

What is happening?Increase in exposure : Population and assets are concentrating to hazardous area

Vulnerability : Population and assets have not enough resistance against natural hazards


Hirokazu Tatano

Natural Hazard →DisasterConsequences ofHuman Behavior

Hazard: Flood, Earthquakes,,etc

Population & AssetExposure：population and asset

exposed to the threat of natural hazards

Vulnerability: degree of resistance of the asset & population against disaster


Hirokazu Tatano

CounterCounter MeasuresMeasures ofofDisasterDisaster RiskRisk ManagementManagement

Risk ControlRisk Control

Risk FinanceRisk Finance

Risk Avoidance/Prevention

Land use Regulation


Land use Regulation

MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:

(Actuator, dumper, etc)



Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond


Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, CaptiveFinite, etc


Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses

Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process



Land use Regulation


Land use Regulation














Land use Regulation


Land use Regulation














Land use Regulation


Land use Regulation













Land use Regulation


Land use Regulation











Benefit of Mitigation can be different. It depends on the possibility of risk transfer [ Kobayashi & Yokomastu 2000].

Combination of Risk control and financing measure is important!

Needs for integration


Hirokazu Tatano

時間

Ｌｏｇ

Ｙ

復旧期間

レベル効果２次的被害（フロー被害）


Hirokazu Tatano

防災投資ミチゲーション

時間

Ｌｏｇ

Ｙ

復旧期間

レベル効果２次的被害（フロー被害）

復旧政策（ファイナンス）


Hirokazu Tatano


Hirokazu Tatano

Low Frequency ⇒ difficulty in learning from the past experience⇒ existence of perception bias⇒ unknowns & uncertainties, ambiguities

High Impact (correlation in space and time)⇒ Importance of pro-active preparation: RISK MANAGEMENT⇒ Low insurability⇒ Long-term effects and Spill-over effects in space

Changes in Disaster Environment⇒ Urbanization, Globalization ⇒ Sustainable Development

Features of Contemporary Disaster Risk

Date post:	30-Apr-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	4 times
Download:	0 times

Features of Natural Disaster Risk -...

Documents