Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Charts

Creative Commons license

Scott Ingram

CPA, CA, MBA

Realtor

Chalmers House

by Blok 70

Feb

2017

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Introduction

You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??

Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number

you’re seeing due to the 416 or the 905? Is it due to houses or condos? The charts that

follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My

focus is the 416, so I pull that out of TREB’s numbers.

I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because you are probably more interested in one than the other, and lumping them together

obscures a lot of information. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to

give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

$261K YoY

+27.2%

$219K MoM

+17.9%

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

- House prices $219K in February

alone—after up $211K for all of 2016

- Average Feb increase in last 6 years is

$100K over January ( 11.2%)

- Supply shortage: active listings 50%

over the 5 year average, and hit another

record low- Transactions remained at 5-year levels

- MOI at 0.8, a record low for the month

February 2017: The February Bump Is Real

⌂ $64K YoY

+15.1%

$39K MoM

+8.0%

- Condo sale transactions are 18% YTD

after an all-time high last year (23.7K)- Active listings are way down ( 61% YoY)

- Are investors holding on tight to their

units, riding the wave? Rents are going

way up, so why not?

- Units spending half the time on market vs.

2016, with DOM to 16 day from 31

- MOI at 0.8, below 1 for first time ever

Detached $1,574K / Semi $1,085K / Row $878K

Feb vs. ‘16: $328K (29.5%)

Feb vs. ‘12: $685K (91%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 13.8%

- Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year

- average price has grown $27K a month in last 12 mos.

- Jan 2013 was $716K so doubled in 4 years 1 month

416 Average Sold Price(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Condo Apt $515K / Condo Townhouse $597K

Feb vs. '16: $80K (18.1%)

Feb vs. '12: $155K (42%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 7.2%

- average price has grown $7K a month in last 12 mos.

- A rowhouse in July 2011 now gets you a Condo Apt

958

1,1101,074

1,156 1,170 1,157

1,104 1,096

1,183 1,1871,222

1,165

1,219

1,437

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

421

444

428

452 456 459

438

459 462474

484476

485

524

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Residential Sales Volume(number of sold transactions in the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Feb vs. '16: 8.8% (vs. Prior 5 years: 1.5%)

YTD vs. '16: 7.9%

- Despite the hype, people aren’t buying more houses

- With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t

vary much from year to year (the prior 5 years stayed

within 4% of the average 5 year volume

Feb vs. '16: 13.2% (vs. Prior 5 years: 40.0%)

YTD vs. '16: 18.0%

- 470 more YTD Condo sales than last year

- 23rd monthly transaction record in a row

- Resale Condo sales demand has increased as more

and more people are priced out of houses

672

1,162

1,513

1,889

2,102 2,066

1,320

1,162

1,508 1,533 1,395

715

629

1060

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1,000

1,609

2,066

2,297

2,468 2,472

2,134 2,217

2,039 2,143

1,938

1,351 1258

1821

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Active Listings(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Feb vs. '16: 36% (vs. Prior 5 years: 50%)

YTD vs. '16: 39%

- Supply remains extremely low

- Dec was the first time (since stats started in Jan ‘96)

with <1000 active listings. Now we’ve had 3 months in

row, and 11 months in a row with fewer than 70% of

the prior year’s listing.

Feb vs. '16: 61% (vs. Prior 5 years: 64%)

YTD vs. '16: 59%

- Condo supply even worse than Houses

- Jan is the 3rd month in a row with less than half of the

prior year’s listings, and there have been 6 months in a

row below 60% of the prior year’s listings.

1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633

1,456 1,283

1,119

1,629 1,612 1,307

599 679836

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3,491 3,718

4,028 4,177 4,249

4,041

3,608

3,134 3,111

2,791

2,203

1,397 1529 1443

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Months Of Inventory(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)

Feb vs. '16: 0.3 months (30%)

Feb vs. Prior 5 years: 0.8 months (50%)

- A “balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory

- Toronto has been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20

years and the trend continues to get more extreme

- Feb marks 13th consecutive new monthly record low

Feb vs. '16: 1.5 months (66%)

Feb vs. Prior 5 years: 2.4 months (75%)

- Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 12

consecutive months, the longest time it has remained

below 2.0, and first time under since Jan ’09

- Last time Condo MOI as low as House was Dec ‘08

1.7

1.10.9

0.8 0.8 0.71.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8

1.10.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3.5

2.3

1.91.8 1.7 1.6 1.7

1.4 1.51.3

1.1 1.01.2

0.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Average Days On Market(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

Feb vs. '16: 3.3 days (22%)

Feb vs. Prior 5 years: 4.6 days (28%)

- New record low for Feb (prior was 15 in 2015 & 2016)

- With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory

of listings, houses that are on the market are being

snapped up quickly.

Feb vs. '16: 14.4 days (47%)

Feb vs. Prior 5 years: 15.0 days (48%)

- New record low (prior was 20 in March 2010)

- All prior years were bunched around seasonal norms

until Condos made a break for it last March. Next 4

months are usaully the lowest. Will it go even lower?

24

15 13

11 12 10

13 15

12 12 14

18 18

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

39

31

24 23 22 22 23

24 23

21 21

23 22

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Condos (Apt & Town)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Annual Price Increases(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016)

century21.ca/scott.ingram

20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $59K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.6%.

20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $19K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 4.8%.

19 46

(11)

27 36

2

49

10 12

130

(51)

57 40

22 33

117

54

105

211

272

2 19 12 20 12 3

19 7 11 42

(34)

60

20 4

(6)

29 17 22

65 48

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

$000s $ IncreasesHouses Condos

7%

17%

(3%)

9% 11%

1%

13%

2% 3%

29%

(9%)

11%7%

3% 5%

17%

7%

12%

22% 23%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17YTD

% IncreasesHouses Condos

416 Market Breakdown

1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%

5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%

10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%

As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more

condos are completed, transaction share should keep

shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter

home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.

While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,

in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.

Houses41%

Condos58%

Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Detached73%

Semi20%

Row7%

Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

Apartment90%

Townhouse10%

Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music

communities, Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown

knowledge and passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next

home. Scott works with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc.

brokerage on Queen St. West.

@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram

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