+ All Categories
Home > Documents > February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... ·...

February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... ·...

Date post: 15-Aug-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
12
February 2, 2015 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Result Update Sales volume picks up on new launches… Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLDL) reported 66.3% YoY growth in consolidated topline to | 238.8 crore with healthy EBITDA margin of 28.0% (vs. 25.5% in Q2FY15). Also, consolidated PAT grew 12.4% YoY to | 32.8 crore In terms of sales volume in the residential segment, the company sold 627 units (0.59 million sq ft) vs. 279 units (0.31 million sq ft) in Q3FY14 across all projects worth | 310 crore However, Mahindra Lifespace Developers’ (MLDL) standalone numbers were below our estimates where it reported net sales of | 83.7 crore (vs. our estimate: | 114.4 crore) and PAT of | 10.9 crore (vs. our estimate: | 17.6 crore) mainly due to revenue adjustment owing to increase in size of the Aura V project (temporarily impacting negatively to revenue by | 26 crore and PAT by | 6 crore in Q3FY15) Launches pilot affordable projects; adds land in Andheri on JD basis… MLDL launched two pilot affordable housing project in Chennai (0.34 mn sq ft) & Boisar (0.5 mn sq ft) in the last two months where it is targeting 100 units each per month. Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development model, which has development potential of 0.32 mn sq ft. The launch of affordable housing and forthcoming launches of 5.2 mn sq ft in the next 12-18 months provide strong visibility over sales volumes. This coupled with better sales from MWC Chennai and Jaipur lend us comfort that MLDL’s topline & bottomline will grow at 39.5% & 28.1% CAGR, respectively, in FY14-17E. Balancing SEZ play with different maturity portfolio… MLDL is the first private player in the SEZ space that demonstrated its capability by providing world class infrastructure at the Chennai SEZ (~1550 acres). Enhancing its learning curve, MLDL is leveraging its expertise in the Jaipur SEZ (~3000 acres) and North Chennai SEZ (~750 acres). We also like MLDL’s strategy of balancing out its SEZ portfolio with different maturity, which will not strain its balance sheet. Furthermore, early acquisition of large tracts of land in Jaipur and North Chennai will hugely benefit MLDL’s SEZ business as new players in the SEZ space will have to incur higher land acquisition cost under LARR bill. Reduced leverage & strong parentage also lend us comfort… MLDL’s consolidated net debt to equity has come down from 1.1x in FY14 to 0.7x in Q3FY15 with the sale of the Byculla land. Furthermore, we also derive our comfort in MLDL due to its strong parentage advantage. MLDL is promoted by the Mahindra Group, which has a diversified presence across business. The group has exhibited a strong track record of being the top players across business verticals. The strong management lends us comfort that MLDL will emerge as a dominant player in the real estate space as well. Attractive valuation with strong parentage; maintain BUY… Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the project portfolio led by recent land acquisition, we believe current valuations (at 0.6x potential NAV & 1.3x FY16 P/BV) are attractive. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of | 700 (0.8x its potential NAV). Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : | 700 Target Period : 24 months Potential Upside : 36 % What’s Changed? Target Unchanged EPS F Y16 E Changed from | 39.9 to | 45.0 EPS F Y17 E Introduced at | 51.8 Rating Unchanged Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY (%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%) Revenue 238.8 143.6 66.3 181.6 31.5 EBITDA 67.0 43.4 54.2 46.3 44.5 EBITDA (%) 28.0 30.2 -219 bps 25.5 254 bps PAT 32.8 29.2 12.4 23.5 39.8 Key Financials | Crore FY14 FY 15E FY1 6E FY17E Net Sales 705 .3 1,06 2.9 1,524.9 1,9 15. 9 EBITDA 170 .2 42 8.3 376 .1 4 13. 2 Adj. PA T 100 .6 12 1.7 183 .8 2 11. 4 Adj. EPS (|) 24 .6 2 9.8 45.0 51. 8 Valuation summary FY14 FY15E FY1 6E FY17E P/E (Adjusted) 20 .9 1 7.3 11.4 9. 9 Target P/E 28 .4 2 3.5 15.6 13. 5 EV / EBITDA 20 .2 7.7 8.3 7. 1 P/BV 1.7 1.4 1.3 1. 2 RoNW (%) 8.0 1 8.7 11.6 12. 2 RoCE (%) 5.8 1 4.9 13.1 14. 4 Stock data Particular A mo unt Market Capitalization | 21 00. 8 crore Total Debt (FY14) | 121 7 crore Cash and Investments (FY14) | 79. 7 crore EV | 25 20. 1 crore 52 week H/L (|) 664 / 322 Eq uity c apital | 40. 8 crore Fac e valu e | 10 Price performance (%) (in %) Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Promoter 51.04 51.03 50.86 50.85 50.84 FII 30.20 30.11 30.06 29.37 29.03 DII 2.11 1.90 1.36 1.31 1.23 Others 16.65 16.96 17.72 18.47 18.90 Research Analyst Deepak Purswani, CFA [email protected] Nikunj Gala [email protected] Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR) | 514
Transcript
Page 1: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

February 2, 2015

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

Sales volume picks up on new launches… • Mahindra Lifespace Developers (MLDL) reported 66.3% YoY growth

in consolidated topline to | 238.8 crore with healthy EBITDA margin of 28.0% (vs. 25.5% in Q2FY15). Also, consolidated PAT grew 12.4% YoY to | 32.8 crore

• In terms of sales volume in the residential segment, the company sold 627 units (0.59 million sq ft) vs. 279 units (0.31 million sq ft) in Q3FY14 across all projects worth | 310 crore

• However, Mahindra Lifespace Developers’ (MLDL) standalone numbers were below our estimates where it reported net sales of | 83.7 crore (vs. our estimate: | 114.4 crore) and PAT of | 10.9 crore (vs. our estimate: | 17.6 crore) mainly due to revenue adjustment owing to increase in size of the Aura V project (temporarily impacting negatively to revenue by | 26 crore and PAT by | 6 crore in Q3FY15)

Launches pilot affordable projects; adds land in Andheri on JD basis…

MLDL launched two pilot affordable housing project in Chennai (0.34 mn sq ft) & Boisar (0.5 mn sq ft) in the last two months where it is targeting 100 units each per month. Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development model, which has development potential of 0.32 mn sq ft. The launch of affordable housing and forthcoming launches of 5.2 mn sq ft in the next 12-18 months provide strong visibility over sales volumes. This coupled with better sales from MWC Chennai and Jaipur lend us comfort that MLDL’s topline & bottomline will grow at 39.5% & 28.1% CAGR, respectively, in FY14-17E.

Balancing SEZ play with different maturity portfolio…

MLDL is the first private player in the SEZ space that demonstrated its capability by providing world class infrastructure at the Chennai SEZ (~1550 acres). Enhancing its learning curve, MLDL is leveraging its expertise in the Jaipur SEZ (~3000 acres) and North Chennai SEZ (~750 acres). We also like MLDL’s strategy of balancing out its SEZ portfolio with different maturity, which will not strain its balance sheet. Furthermore, early acquisition of large tracts of land in Jaipur and North Chennai will hugely benefit MLDL’s SEZ business as new players in the SEZ space will have to incur higher land acquisition cost under LARR bill.

Reduced leverage & strong parentage also lend us comfort…

MLDL’s consolidated net debt to equity has come down from 1.1x in FY14 to 0.7x in Q3FY15 with the sale of the Byculla land. Furthermore, we also derive our comfort in MLDL due to its strong parentage advantage. MLDL is promoted by the Mahindra Group, which has a diversified presence across business. The group has exhibited a strong track record of being the top players across business verticals. The strong management lends us comfort that MLDL will emerge as a dominant player in the real estate space as well.

Attractive valuation with strong parentage; maintain BUY…

Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the project portfolio led by recent land acquisition, we believe current valuations (at 0.6x potential NAV & 1.3x FY16 P/BV) are attractive. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of | 700 (0.8x its potential NAV).

Rating matrix Rating : BuyTarget : | 700Target Period : 24 monthsPotential Upside : 36%

What’s Changed?

Target UnchangedEPS FY16E Changed from | 39.9 to | 45.0EPS FY17E Introduced at | 51.8Rating Unchanged

Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)

Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY (%) Q2FY15 QoQ (%)Revenue 238.8 143.6 66.3 181.6 31.5EBITDA 67.0 43.4 54.2 46.3 44.5EBITDA (%) 28.0 30.2 -219 bps 25.5 254 bpsPAT 32.8 29.2 12.4 23.5 39.8

Key Financials | Crore FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ENet Sales 705.3 1,062.9 1,524.9 1,915.9 EBITDA 170.2 428.3 376.1 413.2 Adj. PAT 100.6 121.7 183.8 211.4 Adj. EPS (|) 24.6 29.8 45.0 51.8

Valuation summary

FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EP/E (Adjusted) 20.9 17.3 11.4 9.9 Target P/E 28.4 23.5 15.6 13.5 EV / EBITDA 20.2 7.7 8.3 7.1 P/BV 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 RoNW (%) 8.0 18.7 11.6 12.2 RoCE (%) 5.8 14.9 13.1 14.4

Stock data Particular AmountMarket Capitalization | 2100.8 croreTotal Debt (FY14) | 1217 croreCash and Investments (FY14) | 79.7 croreEV | 2520.1 crore52 week H/L (|) 664 / 322Equity capital | 40.8 croreFace value | 10

Price performance (%) (in %) Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14Promoter 51.04 51.03 50.86 50.85 50.84FII 30.20 30.11 30.06 29.37 29.03DII 2.11 1.90 1.36 1.31 1.23Others 16.65 16.96 17.72 18.47 18.90

Research Analyst

Deepak Purswani, CFA [email protected]

Nikunj Gala [email protected]

Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR) | 514

Page 2: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

Variance analysis (Standalone) Q3FY15 Q3FY15E Q2FY15 QoQ (Chg %) Q3FY14 YoY (Chg %) Comments

Income from Operation 83.7 114.4 105.7 -20.8 57.5 45.5 Revenue came in less than expected mainly due to revenue adjustment owing to increase in size of the Aura V project (temporarily impacting negatively to revenueby | 26 crore and PAT by 6 crore in Q3FY15)

Other Income 24.6 20.0 47.4 -48.0 24.0 2.8

Cost of Projects 60.9 72.1 70.8 -14.1 39.1 55.9Operating Expenses 6.6 7.4 6.8 -3.1 2.1 218.8Employee cost 11.0 11.2 10.3 6.3 7.6 44.2Other expenditure 10.8 4.2 3.9 177.3 6.5 65.0

EBITDA -5.6 19.5 13.8 -140.2 2.3 -346.0EBITDA Margin (%) -6.6 17.0 13.1 -1973 bps 3.9 -1057 bpsDepreciation 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.7 0.6 28.8Interest 4.6 12.8 4.6 0.4 8.7 -46.4

PBT 13.7 26.2 55.8 -75.5 17.0 -19.5Taxes 2.8 8.5 16.0 -82.3 0.3 781.3PAT 10.9 17.6 39.9 -72.8 16.7 -34.9

Key MetricsSales Volume (msf) 0.6 0.2 0.2 156.5 0.3 90.3Sales Value (| crore) 310.0 90.0 93.0 233.3 131.0 136.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates

(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change CommentsRevenue 1,189.7 1,524.9 28.2 -- 1,915.9 -- We upgrade revenues estimates on residential projects on account of better than

anticipated sales volume & executionEBITDA 314.1 376.1 19.7 -- 413.2 --EBITDA Margin (%) 26.4 24.7 -174 bps -- 21.6 --PAT 170.2 183.8 8.0 -- 211.4 --EPS (|) 41.7 45.0 8.0 -- 51.8 --

FY16E FY17E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions

CommentsVolume sold in msf FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17EResidential Sales Volume

1.1 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.0 -- Sales volume to jump ~2.4x during FY14-16E on the back of slew of new launches

Current Earlier

[

S C ICICIdi R h

Page 3: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

Consolidated performance… Exhibit 1: Consolidated Performance (| Crore) Q3FY15 Q3FY14 YoY (Chg %) Q2FY15 QoQ (Chg %)Total operating income 238.8 143.6 66.3 181.6 31.5EBITDA 67.0 43.4 54.2 46.3 44.5EBITDA Margin (%) 28.0 30.2 -219 bps 25.51 254 bpsDepreciation 3.5 2.5 40.8 3.2 9.7Interest 13.0 14.3 -9.2 8.8 47.2Other Income 11.0 12.5 -12.1 11.2 -2.4Reported PAT 32.8 29.2 12.4 23.5 39.8EPS (|) 8.0 7.4 8.3 5.7 39.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

Company Analysis Sales volume pick up hinges on new project launches…

During the quarter, the company sold 627 units (0.59 million sq ft) vs. 279 units (0.31 million sq ft) in Q3FY14 across all projects worth | 310 crore. Historically, MLDL has a limited land bank in the residential segment. Hence, its sales volume declined from 1.2 million sq ft in FY12 to 0.9 million sq ft in FY14. However, in the last two years, MLDL has added land inventory of ~4 million square feet (mn sq ft) across various cities like Hyderabad, Pune, Bengaluru & Chennai.

With these acquisitions, MLDL currently has a pipeline of 5.0 mn sq ft, which will be launched over the next 12-18 months providing strong visibility over sales volumes. With these acquisitions, we build in residential sales volume of 1.6 mn sq ft and 2.2 mn sq ft in FY15E and FY16E, respectively.

Exhibit 2: Volumes remain subdued in last few quarters

0.31

0.23

0.23

0.59

0.12

131.098.0

54.093

310

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7

Q3FY

14

Q4FY

14

Q1F

Y15

Q2FY

15

Q3FY

15

(mn

sq fe

et)

050100150200250300350

(| c

rore

)

Sales Volume Sales Value (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 3: Forthcoming project to boost sales volume, going ahead

1.1

0.9

2.8

2.2

1.6

822

1236

1821

294

371

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

(mn

sq fe

et)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

(| c

rore

)

Sales Volume Sales Value (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 4: Strong forthcoming project pipeline to push up sales volume, going ahead

Location Project Company MLDL Holding ESA (mn sft)Pune Antheia subsequent phases MLDL 100% 0.56Chennai Aqualily subsequent phases MRDL 96% 0.20Chennai NOVA subsequent phases MITL 96% 0.27Chennai Happinest Avadi - subsequent phases MLDL 100% 0.39Nagpur Bloomdale subsequent phases MBDL 70% 0.77NCR Luminare–subsequent phases* MHPL 50% 0.73Mumbai TheSerenes, Alibaug–subsequent phases MLDL 100% 0.11Mumbai Happinest Boisar–subsequent phases MLDL 100% 0.31

Bangalore Bannerghatta MHPL 50% 0.98Mumbai Andheri MLDL 100% 0.37Mumbai Sakinaka MLDL 100% 0.32Forthcoming projects over the next 12-18 months Total 5.01

Existing projects new phases

New projects

[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research *Joint Development

Rectangle
Page 5: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

Consolidated revenues to grow at 39.5% CAGR during FY14-17E…

As highlighted earlier, the limited land bank in the residential portfolio has kept MLDL’s revenues flattish in the last few years. Going ahead, with the recent addition of acquisition from the land bank, we anticipate MLDL’s sales volume will jump from 0.9 mn sq ft in FY14 to 2.2 mn sq ft in FY16E, which should lead to better revenue booking from the residential portfolio. This coupled with land leases from MWC Chennai and Jaipur SEZ will lead to a topline CAGR of 39.5% during FY14-17E compared to flattish revenues in the last couple of years.

Exhibit 5: Consolidated revenues to grow at 39.5% CAGR during FY14-17E

738.

3

705.

3

1,06

2.9

1,52

4.9

1,91

5.9

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

(| c

rore

)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 6: Forthcoming project to boost sales volume, going ahead…

352 307616

9171258

122 67

96

190

128

10496

179

207

264

76 165

78

100

93

110

200400

600800

1000120014001600

FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E(|

cro

re)

Standalone* MWC - Chennai MWC - Jaipur

MRDL* MITL* Others

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research * Residential segment

EBITDA margin to improve in FY16E…

Historically, MLDL has enjoyed margins in the range of 28-33% given the higher share of MWC leasing wherein margins are higher. However, the same has dipped to 24.1% in FY14 with lower leasing in Jaipur and delay in approval for remaining 40 acres at Chennai. Going ahead, we expect the EBITDA margin to expand as the leasing activity improves across World Cities.

Exhibit 7: Superior share of MWC to push up margins…

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

(%)

Series1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 8: Margins to improve to ~25% in FY16E…

241.

9

170.

2

428.

3

376.

1

413.

2

32.8

24.1 24.721.6

40.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

(| c

rore

)

1015

2025

3035

4045

(%)

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research * Residential segment

Page 6: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

Net profit to grow at 28.1% CAGR during FY14-17E…

Given the subdued performance from the residential segmental as well as decline in EBITDA margins, MLDL’s bottomline has declined from 119.1 crore in FY12 to | 100.6 crore in FY14E. Going ahead, with better sales from the residential segment coupled with high contribution from high margin land leases translating into better EBITDA margin, we anticipate MLDL’s net profit will grow at 28.1% CAGR of during FY14-FY17E. Given the improved profitability, we expect the RoE of MLDL to inch back to 12.2% vs. 8.0% currently.

Exhibit 9: PAT to grow at 28.1% CAGR during FY14-17E

108.2 100.6121.7

183.8211.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

(| c

rore

)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 10: Return ratios to bounce back…

12.211.6

18.7

8.010.9

14.413.114.9

5.8

9.9

0

5

10

15

20

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E(%

)

RoNW RoCE

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Debt to equity ratio to improve from hereon... In Q1FY15, MSDL used the proceeds from the sale of the Byculla land to pare its debt by | 195 crore. However, in Q3FY15 MLDL’s gross D/E has remained at 0.8x. Also, we expect the debt to equity ratio to improve, going ahead, on the back of expected healthy financial performance during FY16E and FY17E.

Exhibit 11: Quarterly debt to equity ratio trend…

0.60.8

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

0.8 0.8 0.8

0.3

0.6

0.9 0.9 0.91.0

0.60.7 0.7

00.2

0.40.60.8

11.2

Q3FY

13

Q4FY

13

Q1FY

14

Q2FY

14

Q3FY

14

Q4FY

14

Q1FY

15

Q2FY

15

Q3FY

15

(x)

Gross D/E Net D/E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 12: Debt to equity to improve, going ahead…

0.7

1.1

0.9

0.70.6

0.6

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

(x)

Gross D/E Net D/E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Page 7: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

Outlook and valuation We have valued MLDL on the NAV methodology as this methodology captures the true value from the long term nature of its SEZ and real estate business. Considering the parentage advantage and ramp up in the project portfolio led by recent land acquisition, we believe current valuations (at 0.6x potential NAV & 1.3x FY16 P/BV) are attractive. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of | 700 (0.8x its potential NAV).We have considered a discounting rate of 14% for the SEZ and real estate business. To value the commercial property such as Evolve IT Park and Canopy, we have used the cap rate of 10%.

Exhibit 13: Valuation

Project Value MLD (%) Stake value Value / share Value MLD (%) Stake va lue Value / share

Chennai 949.4 882.4 216.1 949.4 882.4 216MWC - Chennai & North Chennai SE 2300 432.7 89 385.1 94.3 1.0x 432.7 89 385.1 94Canopy 0.1 15.1 89 13.5 3.3 1.0x 15.1 89 13.5 3MITL 11.3 329.1 96 315.9 77.4 1.0x 329.1 96 315.9 77MRDL 1.5 114.1 96 109.6 26.8 1.0x 114.1 96 109.6 27Avadi 0.7 58.3 100 58.3 14.3 1.0x 58.3 100 58.3 14

MWC Ja ipur 1514.6 1360.2 333.1 593.9 439.4 108MWC Jaipur SEZ (in Acres) 3000.0 436.6 74 323.1 79.1 1.0x 436.6 74 323.1 79Evolve IT park - Operationa l 0 118.0 74 87.3 21.4 1.0x 118.0 74 87.3 21Evolve IT park - Development 1.0 39.3 74 29.1 7.1 1.0x 39.3 74 29.1 7Residential Area 21.8 920.8 100 920.8 225.5 0.0x 0.0 100 0.0 0

MMR 1.6 486.7 400 486.7 119.2 496.4 496.4 122Andheri 0.4 242.8 100 242.8 59.5 1.0x 252.6 100 252.6 62Thane 1 165.5 100 165.5 40.5 1.0x 165.5 100 165.5 41Kandivli 0.1 47.0 100 47.0 11.5 1.0x 47.0 100 47.0 12Boisar 0.5 31.3 100 31.3 7.7 1.0x 31.3 100 31.3 8

Benga luru 1.0 250.4 100 250.4 61.3 1.0x 250.4 100 250.4 61

NCR- 2.1 745.4 100 745.4 182.5 1.0x 745.4 100 745.4 183

Pune 2.1 228.9 100 228.9 56.0 1.0x 228.9 100 228.9 56

Hyderabad 0.6 67.2 100 67.2 16.4 1.0x 63.8 100 63.8 16

Nagpur 1.5 138.0 70 96.6 23.7 1.0x 138.0 70 96.6 24

Alibaug 0.2 65.0 100 65.0 15.9 1.0x 65.0 100 65.0 16

Nasik 0.6 30.2 100 30.2 7.4 1.0x 30.2 100 30.2 7

Net Debt -441.6 100 -441.6 -108.1 1.0x -441.6 100 -441.6 -108

NAV Va luati on 4034.1 3771.3 923.6 3119.7 2856.9 700

NAV Target ValuationMn sq ft/Acres

NAV Multiple

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 14: Valuation Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE (| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x ) (x) (%) (%)

FY14 705.3 -4.5 24.6 -28.8 20.9 20.2 8.0 5.8FY15E 1062.9 50.7 66.5 170.0 7.7 7.7 18.7 14.9FY16E 1524.9 43.5 45.0 -32.4 11.4 8.3 11.6 13.1FY17E 1915.9 25.6 51.8 15.0 9.9 7.1 12.2 14.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 8: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

Company snapshot

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct-1

0

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-1

2

Jan-

13

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct-1

3

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct-1

4

Jan-

15

Apr-1

5

Jul-1

5

Oct-1

5

Jan-

16

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date EventFY09 The stock corrects sharply as sales volumes plummetNov-09 Launch of Aqualily, ChennaiOct-10 Buys group firm's land in Kandivali and GhatkoparFeb-11 Government imposes 18.5% MAT on SEZ developers and units in FY12 Budget, removing MAT exemptions Nov-12 Mahindra Lifespaces debuts in Hyderabad with ‘Ashvita’ - a premium residential complexQ1FY14 The consolidated net debt to equity rises to 1.1x due to loans taken for new acquisitions of land, leading to correction in stock priceQ3FY14 No new projects reach revenue recognition stage leading to sharp decline in revenuesMay-14 Cmpleted the sale of Byculla property (MLD was holder of development rights in the property) where its share of consideration was worth | 325 croreJun-14 Entered into affordable housing segment (named Happinest) by offering houses in the range of | 10 lakh to | 20 lakh, aimed at families with a combined income of |

20,000 to | 40,000 per month.Oct-14 Mahindra Lifespace launched its second affordable housing project "Happinest" in Boisar, a suburb of MumbaiOct-14 Acquired a land parcel in MMR region for residential development having an estimated development potential of around 0.33 million square feet of saleable area. It

will be a joint development project under residential housing segment.Nov-14 Launched a new residential project - 'The Serenes' in Alibaug, Maharashtra making its foray into the weekend homes segment

[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)1 Mahindra Group 31-Dec-14 50.8 20.9 0.02 Capital Research Global Investors 31-Dec-14 6.9 2.8 0.03 Amansa Capital Pte Ltd. 31-Dec-14 6.1 2.5 0.04 First State Investment Management (UK) Limited 31-Dec-14 5.5 2.3 0.05 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. 31-Dec-14 3.2 1.3 0.06 FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited 31-Dec-14 2.6 1.1 0.07 Amundi Hong Kong Limited 30-Sep-14 1.5 0.6 -0.18 UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Nov-14 1.0 0.4 0.09 Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 30-Nov-14 0.9 0.4 0.010 Nanda (Arun) 30-Jun-14 0.3 0.1 0.1

[[[

(in %) Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14Promoter 51.04 51.03 50.86 50.85 50.84FII 30.20 30.11 30.06 29.37 29.03DII 2.11 1.90 1.36 1.31 1.23Others 16.65 16.96 17.72 18.47 18.90

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity

Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value SharesNanda (Arun) 1.19m 0.13m Tata Asset Management Limited -1.12m -0.17m Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 0.29m 0.04m Amundi Hong Kong Limited -1.09m -0.14m Fidelity Management & Research Company 0.15m 0.02m Sahara Asset Management Company Pvt. Ltd. -0.07m -0.01m Haribhakti (Shailesh V) 0.05m 0.01m ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. -0.07m -0.01m Arjundas (Anita) 0.02m 0.00m

Buys Sells

Page 9: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

.

Financial summary Profit and loss statement | Crore (| Crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ENet Sales 705.3 1,062.9 1,524.9 1,915.9 Other Income 50.9 73.2 76.6 91.5 Total Revenue 756.2 1,136.1 1,601.5 2,007.4

Operating Expenditure 425.7 519.8 1,028.3 1,376.1 Employee Expenses 39.9 41.9 44.0 46.2 Administrative Expenses 69.4 72.9 76.5 80.4 Total Operating Expenditure 535.0 634.6 1,148.8 1,502.7 EBITDA 170.2 428.3 376.1 413.2 Interest 50.2 56.5 112.6 110.6 PBDT 171.0 445.0 340.0 394.1 Depreciation 10.1 11.7 12.6 13.6 PBT 160.9 433.3 327.4 380.5 Total Tax 50.9 135.9 101.9 120.1 PAT before MI 110.0 297.4 225.5 260.5 Minority Interest 9.4 25.7 41.7 49.0 Reported PAT 100.6 271.7 183.8 211.4 Exceptional Items - 150.0 - - Adjusted PAT 100.6 121.7 183.8 211.4 EPS (Reported) 24.6 66.5 45.0 51.8 EPS (Adjusted) 24.6 29.8 45.0 51.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement | Crore (| Crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EProfit after Tax 100.6 271.7 183.8 211.4 Depreciation 10.1 11.7 12.6 13.6 CF before wc changes 160.9 340.0 309.0 335.6

Net Increase in CA (451.4) (261.3) (320.7) (260.4) Net Increase in CL 160.6 233.4 383.4 345.1 Net CF from op activities (129.8) 312.1 371.7 420.4

(Purchase)/Sale of FA (29.7) (61.5) (27.1) (28.2) Other Investments (168.1) - - - Others 23.4 1.1 4.1 - Net CF from Inv Activities (200.9) (61.5) (27.1) (28.2)

Change in Equity Capital 0.0 - - - Change in Loan Fund 122.7 299.0 435.4 (141.7) Others (50.3) (50.5) (226.2) (133.9) Net CF from Fin Activities 253.2 (275.6) (331.0) (303.1)

Net Cash flow (77.6) (25.0) 13.7 89.1 Opening cash 144.3 66.7 41.7 55.4 Closing cash 66.7 41.7 55.4 144.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet | Crore (| Crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ELiabilitiesEquity Capital 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 ESOP 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Reserve and Surplus 1,218.4 1,412.7 1,544.2 1,695.4 Total Shareholders funds 1,261.7 1,456.0 1,587.4 1,738.6

Minority Interest 83.5 83.5 83.5 83.5

Total Debt 1,401.1 1,259.4 1,093.4 961.1

Deferred Tax Liability 43.4 43.4 43.4 43.4

Total Liabilities 2,789.7 2,842.3 2,807.7 2,826.7 AssetsTotal Gross Block 275.9 337.4 364.5 392.6 Less: Acc Dep 55.5 67.2 79.9 93.4 Net Block 220.4 270.2 284.6 299.2 Goodwill on Consolidation 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 Total CWIP 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4

Investments 301.4 301.4 301.4 301.4

Inventory 1,776.4 1,846.2 1,826.4 1,739.1 Debtors 109.0 155.1 274.1 344.4 Loans and Advances 693.5 769.1 950.4 1,135.4 Cash 66.7 41.7 55.4 144.4 Other Current Assets 141.8 211.5 251.8 344.1 Total Current Assets 2,787.4 3,023.7 3,358.0 3,707.5 Creditors 474.3 566.0 795.2 979.1 Provisions 162.8 304.5 458.7 619.9 Net Current Assets 2,150.3 2,153.2 2,104.2 2,108.5

Total Assets 2,789.7 2,842.3 2,807.7 2,826.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios (Year-end March) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17EPer Share DataEPS 24.6 66.5 45.0 51.8 EPS (Adjusted) 24.6 29.8 45.0 51.8 BV 308.9 356.5 388.7 425.7 Operating profit per share 41.7 104.9 92.1 101.2

Operating RatiosEBITDA Margin 24.1 40.3 24.7 21.6 PAT Margin 14.3 25.6 12.1 11.0

Return RatiosRoE 8.0 18.7 11.6 12.2 RoCE 5.8 14.9 13.1 14.4 RoIC 5.9 15.0 13.3 15.0

Valuation RatiosEV / EBITDA 20.2 7.7 8.3 7.1 P/E 20.9 7.7 11.4 9.9 EV / Net Sales 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.5 Sales / Equity 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 Market Cap / Sales 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.1 Price to Book Value 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2

Turnover RatiosAsset turnover 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 Debtors Turnover Ratio 6.5 6.9 5.6 5.6 Creditors Turnover Ratio 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.0

Solvency RatiosNet Debt / Equity 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 Current Ratio 4.4 3.5 2.7 2.3 Quick Ratio 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 Debt / EBITDA 8.2 2.9 2.9 2.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 10: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Real Estate) CMP M Cap(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E

Oberoi Realty (OBEREA)* 283 333 Buy 9,288 9.5 9.0 24.7 29.9 31.4 11.5 20.4 20.6 6.9 2.1 2.0 1.7 7.1 6.3 14.7Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR) 514 700 Buy 2,100 24.6 66.5 45.0 20.9 7.7 11.4 20.2 7.7 8.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 8.0 18.7 11.6Sobha (SOBDEV) 472 510 Hold 4,629 24.0 24.8 32.4 20.2 19.5 14.9 10.0 10.2 8.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 10.3 9.9 12.0

P/B (x) RoE (%)Sector / Company

EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * The FY17E numbers are estimated only for Mahindra Lifespace & Oberoi Realty and hence not included in the above table.

Page 11: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

Page 12: February 2, 2015 Mahindra Lifespace (GESCOR)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Mahind... · Additionally, MLDL has acquired a land parcel in Andheri (E) on a joint development

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 12

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We , Deepak Purswani, MBA (Finance), CFA; Nikunj Gala, MBA (Capital Markets) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, MBA (Finance), CFA; Nikunj Gala, MBA (Capital Markets) research analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, MBA (Finance), CFA; Nikunj Gala, MBA (Capital Markets) research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.


Recommended