FEBRUARY 2016

NAR 1/2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2014

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTINGHome Sales

NAR 1/2016

Average Days on the MarketBy State

NAR

Average days needed to close a loan…49 days is the longest time needed to

close a loan since February 2013

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)

Census

NAR

Overall, a resilient U.S.

economy and very solid job

growth in recent years made

2015 a great rebound year for

the housing market.

Existing-home sales were at the

highest pace (5.26 million) since 2006

(6.48 million) and the Pending Home

Sales Index came in at an average of

108.8, the highest annual reading since…

you guessed it: 2006 (111.7).

Single-family starts were up 10.4% to 715,300.

All four census regions also experienced

increases in single-family starts for 2015.

NAHB

With the December report on

housing starts and permits,

preliminary totals for 2015 are

now available. Total housing

starts at 1.11 million were up

10.8% in 2015 compared to 2014.

Jonathan SmokeRealtor.com Chief Economist

“All indicators point to

this spring being the

busiest since 2006…

but we’ll need to see

inventory grow more robustly

this year to satisfy these buyers.”

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 1/2016

2015

NAR 1/2016

2015 Inventory Levels Compared to last year

HOUSING

SUPPLY

March May June

Percentage of

Distressed Property

Sales

35%

8%11%

NAR 1/2016

January 2012 - Today

CoreLogic

Foreclosure Inventory by State

Number of

Householdsin millions

Census

…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share

Index by AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

% of all buyers

were first time

buyers this

month

AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

First Time Home Buyers

Typical First Time

Buyers

Percent of All

First Time (FT)

Buyers

Household

Income

Median Age

(in years)

All FT Buyers 100% $69,400 31

Married Couple 56% $77,500 31

Single Female 18% $49,400 32

Single Male 11% $58,100 30

Unmarried Couple 13% $74,600 28

Other 2% $63,800 45

NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Median Asking

RENTsince 1988

Census

2016 300,000

2017 500,000

2018 400,000

2019 300,000*Boomerang Buyer is defined as someone who was 60+ days past due on a mortgage

loan, lost their mortgage through foreclosure, short sale or other non-satisfactory

closure, or had a mortgage loan modification between the Bubble and Burst.

Boomerang Buyers Re-entering the Housing Market

TransUnion

The Impact of Monthly Housing

Inventory on Home Prices

LESS THAN

6 MONTHS

BETWEEN

6-7 MONTHS

GREATER THAN

7 MONTHS

SELLERS

MARKETHomes prices

will appreciate

NEUTRAL

MARKETHomes prices

will only

appreciate with

inflation

BUYERS

MARKETHomes prices

will depreciate

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTING Home Prices

NAR 1/2016

CoreLogic 2/2016

Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State

Source: FHFA

Prices Since June 2006

30%

60%

75%

90%

10%The percentage of

potential buyers who

will look for property

+15%

-10%

+10%

Market Value

-15%

Impact of price

on visibility

NAR from Move Sales, Inc.

Q: When do most listingscome on the market?

A: The 2nd Quarter of each Year

New Home Inventory months supply

Census

Fannie Mae & CoreLogic

23%

8%

% who believe they are negative in equity % actually in negative equity

Negative Equity (>0%)

Perceived/Actual

37%

74%

% who believe they have > than 20% equity % who actually have > 20% equity

SignificantEquity (>20%)

Perceived/Actual

Fannie Mae & CoreLogic

Realtor Magazine

By the end of 2015,

about 12.6 million

properties – or 22.5%

of all properties with a

Mortgage - were considered

“equity rich,” having at least

50 percent equity.

Login Content Recent Webinars

Homeownership

Rate 2005-2015

Census

Homeownership Rate = % of Households who are Owners

32% of all Home Transactions Experience Delays

Washington Post

Of those experiencing delays,

the reasons for the delay…

Quicken Loans

Appraiser Home Value Opinions

Compared to Homeowner Estimates

Last 12 Months

INTEREST

RATES

QuarterFannie

Mae

Freddie

MacMBA NAR

Average

of all four

2016 2Q 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.18%

2016 3Q 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.33%

2016 4Q 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.50%

2017 1Q 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.58%

Mortgage Rate Projections

2/2016

Freddie Mac

Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

- Actual

- Projected2015

2016

2017

“In many markets, mortgage

rates would have to be

7, 8, 9, even 10%for the cost of owning to roughly

equate to the cost of renting.

So the financial advantage for

home ownership will still persist

even if mortgage rates rise.”

Ralph McLaughlin Chief Economist at Trulia

“If at today’s interest

rates and house prices

they can find the house

that can fit their budget,

they should buy.”

Doug DuncanFannie Mae’s Senior VP and Chief Economist

Mortgage Credit Availability

YES NO MAYBE

Respondents who think it would be …

to get a home mortgage today.

Fannie Mae HPSI

A recent Fannie Mae survey

found that consumers have

limited understanding of what it

takes to qualify for a mortgage,

and most believe the requirements

are tougher than they are.

When asked about key mortgage qualification

criteria (such as down payment percentage,

credit score, and debt-to-income ratio),

roughly half of consumers selected “don't

know” or provided an incorrect answer.

This research suggests

that there are too many

eligible homebuyers sitting

on the sidelines due to

misperceptions or anxiety

about being turned down for a loan.

Fannie Mae

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a

report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit

Availability

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Average FICO Scorefor Closed Purchase Loans

by Loan Type

FICO Score Requirements begin to inch downward

2015

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Average Back End DTIfor Closed Purchase Loans

by Loan Type

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Average Down Paymentfor Closed Purchase Loans

by Loan Type

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Typical Down Payment

NAR

from May 2011 until Today

HPSI

Fannie Mae’s

Home Purchase

Sentiment Index

(HPSI)

The HPSI distills results from Fannie Mae’s consumer-focused National

Housing Survey into a single, monthly, predictive indicator. Fannie Mae

Home Prices

S&P Case Shiller 1/2016

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

Case Shiller

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES

20 City Composite

Case Shiller

S&P Case Shiller 1/2016

NAR 1/2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2012

% Change

in Sales from last year

by Price Range

NAR 1/2016

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Salessince 2012

NAR 1/2016

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 1/2016

PENDINGHome Salessince 2014

PENDINGHome Sales

Year-over-Year by region

1.0%

NAR 1/2016

New Home Sales

Annualizedin thousands

% of sales by

price range

New

Home

Sales

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 1/2016

2011 - Today

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 1/2016

last 2 years

NAR 1/2016

Year-over-Year

Inventory Levels

Foot Traffic

NAR 1/2016

indicator of future sales

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

4, 5 Existing Home Sales http://www.realtor.org

6 Average Days On The Market http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index

7 Average Days To Close http://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_DECEMBER2015.pdf

8 New Homes Selling Quickly http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

9 NAR Quote http://narnewsline.blogs.realtor.org/2016/01/28/recapping-a-solid-2015-for-housing/

10 NAHB Quote http://eyeonhousing.org/2016/01/home-construction-up-for-2015/

11 Jonathan Smoke Quote http://www.dsnews.com/news/02-01-2016/economic-woes-are-not-dampening-housing-for-2016-so-far

12 - 14Months Inventory, YOY

Inventory, Distressed Saleshttp://www.realtor.org

15 Foreclosure Inventory by State http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/national-foreclosure-report.aspx#.VmhKqeMrJE4

16, 19Number of Households,

Median Asking Renthttp://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

17 First Time Homebuyers http://www.housingrisk.org/

18 Typical 1st Time Homebuyers http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2015-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers

20 Boomerang Buyers http://www.transunioninsights.com/boomerang/

22 EHS Prices, http://www.realtor.org

23 Forecasted YOY Prices http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx#

24 Prices Since June 2006 http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/dec_2015_public_outlook.pdf

25 Impact of Price on Visibility http://infocentral.blogs.realtor.org/2015/03/12/graphics-for-home-sellers/#sf7996259

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

27 New Home Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

28, 29Perception vs. Reality:

Negative & Significant Equity

http://fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/080315-deggendorf-wilcox.html?sf11644984=1

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/homeowner-equity-report.aspx#.VqpbLFMrJE4

30 Realtor Magazine Quote http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/01/29/equity-gains-for-2015#sf19972497

32 Homeownership Rate ‘05-’15 http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

34 Transaction Delayshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/one-third-of-realty-transactions-are-plagued-by-delays-some-of-them-

fatal/2016/01/19/0d74d684-beb9-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html

35Appraiser Value vs.

Homeowner Estimatehttp://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/01/13/home-appraisals-fall-short-spread-tightens/

37 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/jan_2016_public_outlook.pdf

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011416.pdf

http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/forecast-01-2016-us-economic-outlook-01-26-2016.pdf

https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Jan%202016.pdf

38 Freddie Mac Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html

39 Ralph McLaughlin Quote http://www.dsnews.com/news/01-22-2016/ask-the-economist-what-will-be-the-biggest-obstacles-to-homeownership-this-year

41 Doug Duncan Quote http://www.thehomestory.com/is-now-the-right-time-to-buy-a-home/?sf19161276=1

43 Difficulty of Getting a Mortgage http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2016/6333.html

44 - 45 Fannie Mae Quote http://pages.exacttarget.com/page.aspx?QS=5c591a8916642e734a03cfa1570573348c03deb7054f1bafc209e071e1d0385e#bookmark1-1

46 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm

48 - 51Avg FICO Score, Avg DTI, Avg

Down Paymenthttp://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_DECEMBER2015.pdf

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

52 Typical Down Payment http://www.realtor.org

53 Fannie Mae’s HPSI http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2016/6333.html

55, 56 Case Shiller Price Indexhttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerhttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-

assets/resources/public/documents/282559_cshomeprice-release-1229.pdf

58 - 62

EHS ‘12-’15, % Change in

Sales, PHS Historic, PHS ‘15,

PHS by Region

http://www.realtor.org

63, 64New Home Sales Annualized,

By Price Rangehttp://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

65-66, 67,

68

Months Inventory of Homes

For Sale, YOY Inventory, Foot

Traffic

http://www.realtor.org

72 Marcus Sheridan Quote http://www.shweiki.com/blog/2016/01/content-marketing-where-do-i-start/

76 Cindy Allen’s Story http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/cindyallen

Everyone gets tired of

someone who is constantly

talking about themselves...

When approaching digital

marketing, companies should

approach it from a teaching

perspective because the moment they

try to sound intellectually superior, they

will lose their audience’s trust.

Marcus Sheridan, The Sales Lion

Joe PulizziContent Marketing Institute Founder

“Your business needs a laser-sharp focus

on the needs of your core audience…

The wider you go, the more irrelevant

your content will be to those

who matter the most

to your business.”