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February 3, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Result Update Revenue guidance intact… Firstsource’s results were way above our expectation on all fronts with revenue, margins and PAT above our estimates Revenues from operations grew 0.3% QoQ to | 860.1 crore above our 3% QoQ de-growth and | 831.5 crore estimate. Constant currency revenues grew 2.1% QoQ and 13.9% YoY At 12.1%, EBITDA margins declined ~60 bps and were above our estimate of 11% Reported PAT of | 69.7 crore was above our | 56.6 crore estimate led by revenue and margin beat Double digit YoY revenue growth for last four quarters… FSL’s revenues from core operations grew 0.3% QoQ led by contribution from the SKY deal. The growth was partly offset by a reduction in volume in ISGN led by weakness in US mortgage refinance market. Also, demonetisation in India led to a volume reduction for one telco client. It reiterated its ISGN revenue guidance for ~US$30-35 million revenue in FY17E. The management expects revenue to be minimum ~US$35 million in FY18E. Sky deal is continuing its transition as per plan and ~US$10-12 million in revenue is expected for FY17E with incremental revenue of ~US$30-35 million for FY18E. The deal pipeline was healthy with ~US$350 million, which was up 10-12% QoQ with good traction in the healthcare space. In terms of overall guidance, the company reiterated its revenue growth guidance of 10-12% in constant currency. The management expects Q4 to be a seasonally strong quarter with H1FY17:H2FY17E revenue ratio at 45:55. Overall, the management is watchful on a) US healthcare act and b) increasing bond yield in US as it may lead to some volume softness in mortgage refinance market. We anticipate FSL revenues will grow at CAGR of ~9% with average EBITDA margin of 12.8% in FY16-18E. Margin guidance lowered marginally with 40-50 bps improvement… At 12.1%, EBITDA margins declined 60 bps QoQ and were way above our 11% estimate. On an absolute basis, FSL reported EBITDA of | 107.1 crore, above our | 94.5 crore estimate. The margin decline was led by a seasonally weak quarter with lower number of working days, weak volume growth in one of the telco clients in India and rising interest rates in the US leading to a volume dip in mortgage origination. The management expects the mortgage refinance market (6-7% of revenue) to witness some sluggishness thereby impacting margins. From the Sky deal, the management said, going ahead, the deal may witness non-linear revenue growth thereby offsetting headwinds in margins. Overall, the management expects margins to increase 40-50 bps YoY for FY17E vs. earlier guidance of 70-90 bps led by cross currency headwinds and some weakness in the mortgage refinance market. Maintain BUY led by Sky deal ramp-up, healthy deal pipeline… We expect FSL to report revenue, PAT CAGR of 8.7%, 6.8%, respectively, in FY16-18E (average 12.8% EBITDA margins in FY17-18E), vs. 9.5%, 14% reported in FY11-16 (average 11.3%) led by a healthy deal pipeline, ramp- up of Sky deal in FY18E to aid growth. FSL is on track to become debt free by FY19E with net debt as on December 2016 at US$72 million. We value FSL at 10x based on FY18E EPS with our revised target price to | 46 (earlier target price was | 47) in line with its historical multiple for the last 10 years. We believe FSL could get re-rated, going ahead, if it keeps its debt repayment on track. Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40 Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : | 46 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 15% What’s changed? Target Changed from | 47 to | 46 EPS FY17E Changed from | 4 to | 4.3 EPS FY18E Changed from | 4.9 to | 4.6 Rating Unchanged Quarterly performance Q3FY17 Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) Revenue 885 819 8.2 884 0.1 EBITDA 107 101 5.8 113 (4.8) EBITDA (%) 12.1 12.4 -27 bps 12.7 -65 bps PAT 69 67 3.1 71 (2.4) Key financials | Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 Net Profit 234 269 292 314 EPS (|) 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 Valuation summary FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E P/E 11.3 10.5 9.3 8.6 Target P/E 13.0 12.1 10.7 9.9 EV / EBITDA 9.1 7.9 6.6 5.4 P/BV 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 RoNW (%) 11.2 12.9 12.0 11.6 RoCE (%) 8.8 11.7 12.5 12.9 Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization (| Crore) 2,655.3 Total Debt (| Crore) - Cash and Investments (| Crore) 80.2 EV (| Crore) 2,735.5 52 week H/L 54 / 25 Equity capital 673.3 Face value 10.0 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M FSOL (1.5) (4.7) (20.6) (4.7) HGS (23.3) (26.0) 1.1 (18.5) EXL (1.3) 1.5 (7.3) 18.1 Genpact 2.2 3.9 (8.9) 4.8 Research Analyst Deepak Purswani, CFA [email protected] Tushar Wavhal [email protected] Deepti Tayal [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

February 3, 2017

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

Revenue guidance intact… • Firstsource’s results were way above our expectation on all fronts

with revenue, margins and PAT above our estimates • Revenues from operations grew 0.3% QoQ to | 860.1 crore above

our 3% QoQ de-growth and | 831.5 crore estimate. Constant currency revenues grew 2.1% QoQ and 13.9% YoY

• At 12.1%, EBITDA margins declined ~60 bps and were above our estimate of 11%

• Reported PAT of | 69.7 crore was above our | 56.6 crore estimate led by revenue and margin beat

Double digit YoY revenue growth for last four quarters… FSL’s revenues from core operations grew 0.3% QoQ led by contribution from the SKY deal. The growth was partly offset by a reduction in volume in ISGN led by weakness in US mortgage refinance market. Also, demonetisation in India led to a volume reduction for one telco client. It reiterated its ISGN revenue guidance for ~US$30-35 million revenue in FY17E. The management expects revenue to be minimum ~US$35 million in FY18E. Sky deal is continuing its transition as per plan and ~US$10-12 million in revenue is expected for FY17E with incremental revenue of ~US$30-35 million for FY18E. The deal pipeline was healthy with ~US$350 million, which was up 10-12% QoQ with good traction in the healthcare space. In terms of overall guidance, the company reiterated its revenue growth guidance of 10-12% in constant currency. The management expects Q4 to be a seasonally strong quarter with H1FY17:H2FY17E revenue ratio at 45:55. Overall, the management is watchful on a) US healthcare act and b) increasing bond yield in US as it may lead to some volume softness in mortgage refinance market. We anticipate FSL revenues will grow at CAGR of ~9% with average EBITDA margin of 12.8% in FY16-18E. Margin guidance lowered marginally with 40-50 bps improvement… At 12.1%, EBITDA margins declined 60 bps QoQ and were way above our 11% estimate. On an absolute basis, FSL reported EBITDA of | 107.1 crore, above our | 94.5 crore estimate. The margin decline was led by a seasonally weak quarter with lower number of working days, weak volume growth in one of the telco clients in India and rising interest rates in the US leading to a volume dip in mortgage origination. The management expects the mortgage refinance market (6-7% of revenue) to witness some sluggishness thereby impacting margins. From the Sky deal, the management said, going ahead, the deal may witness non-linear revenue growth thereby offsetting headwinds in margins. Overall, the management expects margins to increase 40-50 bps YoY for FY17E vs. earlier guidance of 70-90 bps led by cross currency headwinds and some weakness in the mortgage refinance market. Maintain BUY led by Sky deal ramp-up, healthy deal pipeline… We expect FSL to report revenue, PAT CAGR of 8.7%, 6.8%, respectively, in FY16-18E (average 12.8% EBITDA margins in FY17-18E), vs. 9.5%, 14% reported in FY11-16 (average 11.3%) led by a healthy deal pipeline, ramp-up of Sky deal in FY18E to aid growth. FSL is on track to become debt free by FY19E with net debt as on December 2016 at US$72 million. We value FSL at 10x based on FY18E EPS with our revised target price to | 46 (earlier target price was | 47) in line with its historical multiple for the last 10 years. We believe FSL could get re-rated, going ahead, if it keeps its debt repayment on track.

Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40 Rating matrix Rating : BuyTarget : | 46Target Period : 12 monthsPotential Upside : 15%

What’s changed?

Target Changed from | 47 to | 46EPS FY17E Changed from | 4 to | 4.3EPS FY18E Changed from | 4.9 to | 4.6Rating Unchanged

Quarterly performance

Q3FY17 Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%)Revenue 885 819 8.2 884 0.1 EBITDA 107 101 5.8 113 (4.8) EBITDA (%) 12.1 12.4 -27 bps 12.7 -65 bpsPAT 69 67 3.1 71 (2.4)

Key financials

| Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18ENet Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 Net Profit 234 269 292 314 EPS (|) 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6

Valuation summary

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E 11.3 10.5 9.3 8.6 Target P/E 13.0 12.1 10.7 9.9 EV / EBITDA 9.1 7.9 6.6 5.4 P/BV 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 RoNW (%) 11.2 12.9 12.0 11.6 RoCE (%) 8.8 11.7 12.5 12.9

Stock data Particular AmountMarket Capitalization (| Crore) 2,655.3

Total Debt (| Crore) - Cash and Investments (| Crore) 80.2

EV (| Crore) 2,735.5 52 week H/L 54 / 25

Equity capital 673.3 Face value 10.0

Price performance

1M 3M 6M 12M

FSOL (1.5) (4.7) (20.6) (4.7) HGS (23.3) (26.0) 1.1 (18.5) EXL (1.3) 1.5 (7.3) 18.1 Genpact 2.2 3.9 (8.9) 4.8

Research Analyst

Deepak Purswani, CFA [email protected] Tushar Wavhal [email protected] Deepti Tayal [email protected]

Page 2: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

Variance analysis Q3FY17 Q3Y17E Q3FY16 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) Comments

Revenue 885.4 831.5 818.6 8.2 884.4 0.1 Revenues grew 0.1% QoQEmployee expenses 590.1 592.5 557.9 6.3 595.0 -0.9

Gross Margin 295.3 239.0 260.7 13.3 289.4 2.1Gross margin (%) 33.4 28.7 31.8 151 bps 32.7 63 bpsSG&A expenses 188.2 171.7 159.4 18.1 176.8 6.4

EBITDA 107.1 67.3 101.3 5.8 112.6 -4.8EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 8.1 12.4 -27 bps 12.7 -65 bpsDepreciation & amortisation 15.6 15.5 16.0 -2.6 16.0 -3.0EBIT 91.6 51.9 85.3 7.4 96.5 -5.1EBIT Margin (%) 10.3 6.2 10.4 -8 bps 10.9 -57 bpsOther income (less interest) 9.9 10.9 12.4 -20.6 10.9 -9.0PBT 101.5 62.7 97.7 3.8 107.4 -5.5Tax paid 13.4 11.9 7.3 83.2 14.9 -10.1

PAT 69.5 56.6 67.4 3.1 71.2 -2.4 PAT was above our expectations due to revenue growth and margin beat Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates

FY17E FY18E(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments

Revenue 3,578 3,601 0.6 3,972 3,829 -3.6EBITDA 465 456 -1.9 532 498 -6.5EBITDA Margin (%) 13.0 12.7 -31 bps 13.4 13.0 -38 bpsPAT 281 292 3.7 342 314 -8.2EPS (|) 4.0 4.3 6.6 4.9 4.6 -5.6 We have revised our estimates as per Q3 performance

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 3: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

Company Analysis Conference call highlights…

• The management maintained its revenue growth guidance of 10-12% on a constant currency basis for FY17E. However, it guided for a slightly lower margin profile due to underperformance of its mortgage business

• The company signed a 10-year contract with Sky and invested £12 million on contract signing in Q3. This could contribute ~US$10 million to revenue by FY17E with ~US$35-40 million incremental revenues expected in FY18E. It is on track to transition around ~900-1000 employees by March 1, 2017

• The management expects ISGN to be on track and contribute US$30-35 million revenue by FY17E. It expects to witness minimum US$35 million revenue run rate in FY18E

• The management has revised its margin improvement guidance of 40-50 bps in FY17E vs. earlier 70-90 bps owing to currency headwind, weakness in mortgage business

• Net long-term debt was at US$72 million as on Q3FY17. Cash and cash equivalent was at | 126.5 crore vs. | 122 crore in Q2FY17. Capex during the quarter was at | 17.6 crore vs. | 20.8 crore in Q2FY17

• It added 1082 net employees during the quarter taking total to 25,992. Seat fill factor was at 75% vs. 72% in Q2FY17

• Outstanding hedges were at US$55 million and £53 million

Page 4: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

Double digit YoY revenue growth in last four quarters… FSL’s revenues from core operations grew 0.3% QoQ led by contribution from the SKY deal. The growth was partly offset by a reduction in volume in ISGN led by weakness in US mortgage refinance market. Also, demonetisation in India led to a volume reduction for one telco client. It reiterated its ISGN revenue guidance for ~US$30-35 million revenue in FY17E. The management expects revenue to be minimum ~US$35 million in FY18E. Sky deal is continuing its transition as per plan and ~US$10-12 million in revenue is expected for FY17E with incremental revenue of ~US$30-35 million for FY18E. The deal pipeline was healthy with ~US$350 million, which was up 10-12% QoQ with good traction in the healthcare space. In terms of overall guidance, the company reiterated its revenue growth guidance of 10-12% in constant currency. The management expects Q4 to be a seasonally strong quarter with H1FY17:H2FY17E revenue ratio at 45:55. Overall, the management is watchful on a) US healthcare act and b) increasing bond yield in US as it may lead to some volume softness in mortgage refinance market. We anticipate FSL revenues will grow at CAGR of ~9% with average EBITDA margin of 12.8% in FY16-18E. Among geographies, RoW (0.6% of revenue) led the decline with 33.1% QoQ de-growth on top of 41.2% decline in Q2FY17 while UK (37.6% of revenue) and India (5.6% of revenue) also declined sequentially by 1% and 4.8%, respectively. Only the US (56.2% of revenue) grew 2.3% QoQ leading the overall company growth. Among verticals, telecom & media (32.9% of revenue) grew 10.8% QoQ and healthcare (35.6% of revenue) grew 3.5% QoQ post two consecutive quarterly declines. BFSI (31.2% of revenue) declined 11.8% QoQ post average 18.3% sequential revenue growth for the last three consecutive quarters. Telecom & media vertical grew despite one of the telecom clients witnessing weakness during the quarter owing to demonetisation in India. Exhibit 1: Rupee revenue may grow at 8.7% CAGR in FY16-18E

2055 2255

28193106 3035

741 788 819 869

3240

885

36013829

894 884

0.0

10.6

20.9

11.16.3

9.7

25.0

10.2

-2.3

4.06.8

20.5

12.38.2

500

1300

2100

2900

3700

4500

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

Q1FY

16

Q2FY

16

Q3FY

16

Q4FY

16

FY16

Q1FY

17

Q2FY

17

Q3FY

17

FY17

E

FY18

E

| cr

ore

-10

0

10

20

30

40

%

Rupee revenue Growth, YoY

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Margin guidance lowered marginally with 40-50 bps improvement… At 12.1%, EBITDA margins declined 60 bps QoQ and were way above our 11% estimate. On an absolute basis, FSL reported EBITDA of | 107.1 crore, above our | 94.5 crore estimate. The margin decline was led by a seasonally weak quarter with fewer working days, weak volume growth in one of the telecom clients in India and rising interest rates in the US leading to a volume dip in mortgage origination. The management expects the mortgage refinance market (6-7% of revenue) to witness some sluggishness thereby impacting margins. From the Sky deal, the

Page 5: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

management said, going ahead, the deal could witness non-linear revenue growth thereby offsetting headwinds in margins. Overall, the management expects margins to increase 40-50 bps YoY for FY17E vs. earlier guidance of 70-90 bps led by cross currency headwinds and some weakness in the mortgage refinance market. Exhibit 2: Modelling 30 bps YoY improvement in FY18E margins

14.1

8.29.9

11.712.5

11.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 12.7 13.3 12.7 12.1 12.7 13.0

5

8

11

14

17

20

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

Q1FY

16

Q2FY

16

Q3FY

16

Q4FY

16

FY16

Q1FY

17

Q2FY

17

Q3FY

17

FY17

E

FY18

E

%

EBITDA margin

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Seat fill factor grows 300 bps QoQ

71.0

74.1

81.8

77.0

69.068.0

66.6 66.068.0 68.0

72.0 72.0

75.0

65

69

73

77

81

85

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

Q1FY

16

Q2FY

16

Q3FY

16

Q4FY

16

FY16

Q1FY

17

Q2FY

17

Q3FY

17

%

Seat fill factor

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top customer revenue grows ~19.1% QoQ… Top customer (23.5% of revenue) grew 19.1% vs. decline of 6.3% QoQ led the overall marginal revenue growth for the company. Top 2-5 customer revenues declined 10% QoQ. Non-top five clients declined 1.8% QoQ on top of 6.3% decline in Q2FY17.

Debt repayment on track…

As on Q3FY17 end, FSL had net long term debt of ~$72 million. At the current repayment rate of US$11.25 million quarterly run-rate, FSL would be debt free by FY19E. Cash and cash equivalent was at | 126.5 crore as on December 31, 2016.

Page 6: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

Sky deal may add incremental revenue of ~US$30-35 million in FY18E… The Sky deal is progressing well as per planned timelines. It is on track to transition 900-1000 employees by March 1, 2017. The management expects the deal to contribute ~US$10-12 million in revenue by FY17E and expects incremental revenue to the tune of ~US$30-35 million in FY18E leading to 6-7% overall revenue visibility in FY18E. Total £12 million has been paid as part of the deal vs. ~US$26 million over a three year period. Exhibit 4: Sky Deal…

Particulars

Total Increase in employees ~1000

Contract signing Nov-16

1st phase of transition Sep-16

Addition of employees in Phase I ~257

2nd phase of transition Mar-17

Addition of employees in Phase II ~800

Revenue contribution in FY17E ~$ 10-12 mn

Revenue contribution in FY18E ~$ 40 mn

Total Investment over 3 year period $ 26 mn

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 7: February 3, 2017 Firstsource Solutions (FIRSOU) | 40content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FirstSource_Q3FY17.pdf · Net Sales 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 ...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

Outlook and valuation We estimate FSL may report revenue, PAT CAGR of 8.7%, 6.8%, respectively, in FY16-18E (average 12.8% EBITDA margins in FY17-18E), vs. 9.5%, 14% reported in FY11-16 (average 11.3%) led by a healthy deal pipeline, ramp-up of Sky deal in FY18E to aid growth. FSL is on track to become debt free by FY19E with net debt as on December 2016 at US$72 million. We value FSL at 10x based on FY18E EPS with a revised target price to | 46 (earlier target price was | 47) in line with its historical multiple for the last 10 years. We believe FSL could get re-rated, going ahead, if it maintains its debt repayment on track. Exhibit 5: One year forward rolling EV/EBITDA

01000200030004000500060007000

Feb-

09

Aug

-09

Feb-

10

Aug

-10

Feb-

11

Aug

-11

Feb-

12

Aug

-12

Feb-

13

Aug

-13

Feb-

14

Aug

-14

Feb-

15

Aug

-15

Feb-

16

Aug

-16

Feb-

17

|

EV 10 8 6 4 2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Valuations

Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE (| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

FY15 3,035 (2.3) 3.5 25.2 11.3 9.1 11.2 8.8 FY16 3,240 6.8 3.8 7.6 10.5 7.9 12.9 11.7 FY17E 3,601 11.1 4.3 13.3 9.3 6.6 12.0 12.5 FY18E 3,829 6.3 4.6 7.6 8.6 5.4 11.6 12.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

Recommendation History vs. Consensus

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0

25

50

75

100

Feb-17Nov-16Sep-16Jun-16Apr-16Jan-16Nov-15Sep-15Jun-15Apr-15Jan-15

(%)(|

)

Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event

Dec-13 The company successfully makes its third quarterly principal repayment of $11.25 million on its outstanding debt on December 31, 2013

Mar-14 The company successfully makes its fourth quarterly principal repayment of $11.25 million on its outstanding debt on March 31, 2014

Apr-14The company reports in line quarter with 174 bps margin expansion for FY14 led by exiting lower margin domestic business. It reduces FY15E growth outlook to 6% from 8% earlier.

Nov-14 FSL reports moderate growth during Q2FY15 with 94 bps YoY margin expansion. However, it lowers its FY15E guidance to 2-2.5% vs. 6% earlier

May-15 Reports weak Q4FY15 earnings as revenues, absolute EBITDA and PAT were below our estimates

Jun-15 Firstsource reports soft Q1FY16 earnings. Though revenues were above our estimates, absolute EBITDA and PAT were below

Oct-15Reports strong Q2FY16 earnings, which were in line with our raised estimates.Revenues from operations grew 6.1% QoQ while constant currency revenues grew 3.2% QoQ

Mar-16Firstsource Group USA, Inc, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company has successfully made its Fourth quarterly repayment of USD 11.25 million on its outstanding debt on March 31,2016

May-16 Firstsource completes acquisition of ISGN's Business Process Outsourcing Division".

Jun-16Firstsource Group USA, Inc, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company successfully makes its fifth quarterly repayment of US$11.25 million on its outstanding debt on June 30, 2016

Dec-16Firstsource Group USA, Inc, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company successfully makes its seventh quarterly repayment of US$11.25 million on its outstanding debt on December 31, 2016.

Jan-17 Firstsource Solutions and Sky UK sign contract for previously announced 10-year strategic partnership

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)1 RPG Enterprises 30-Sep-16 55.2% 373.98 02 ICICI Group 30-Sep-16 4.7% 32.08 03 Jhunjhunwala (Rakesh Radheshyam) 30-Sep-16 3.7% 25.00 +1.504 Goldman Sachs Asset Management International 30-Sep-16 2.7% 18.52 05 Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 30-Nov-16 2.0% 13.37 06 Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 31-Dec-16 1.6% 10.78 +1.317 Steinberg Asset Management, LLC 30-Sep-16 1.6% 10.49 -0.018 Subramaniam (Rajesh) 9-Jan-17 0.2% 1.63 -0.329 Van Eck Associates Corporation 31-Dec-16 0.2% 1.51 -0.0810 Mellon Capital Management Corporation 31-Dec-16 0.1% 0.77 +0.00

(in %) Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16Promoter 55.41 55.35 55.16Public 44.59 44.65 44.84Others 0.00 0.00 0.00Total 100.00 100.00 100.00

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity

Investor name Value ($m) Shares Investor name Value ($m) SharesJhunjhunwala (Rakesh Radheshyam) 0.91m 1.50m Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. -0.28m -0.40mBirla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 0.73m 1.31m Subramaniam (Rajesh) -0.20m -0.32mJain (Shalabh) 0.08m 0.13m Smith (Charles Miller) -0.05m -0.10mPonnappa (K M) 0.06m 0.08m Van Eck Associates Corporation -0.04m -0.08mMalegam (Y H) 0.05m 0.08m Tyagi (Arun) -0.04m -0.07m

Buys Sells

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

.

Financial summary Profit and loss statement | Crore

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18ETotal Revenues 3,035 3,240 3,601 3,829 Growth (%) (2.3) 6.8 11.1 6.3 Employee expenses 2,017 2,172 2,390 2,546 Other Expenses 637 654 754 785 EBITDA 381 413 456 498 Growth (%) 5.2 8.5 10.4 9.1 Depreciation & Amortization 72 66 65 96 Other Income 31 9 5 5 Interest 71 52 43 24 PBT before Exceptional Items 244 294 354 383 Growth (%) 20.0 20.6 20.2 8.4 Tax 10 25 61 69 PAT before Exceptional Items 234 269 292 314 Exceptional items - - - - PAT before MI 234 269 292 314 Minority Int & Pft. from associates 0 0 0 0 PAT 234 269 292 314 Growth (%) 21.4 14.7 8.6 7.6 EPS 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 EPS (Growth %) 20.5 7.6 13.3 7.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement | Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

Profit before Tax 244 294 354 383 Depreciation & Amortization 72 66 65 96 WC changes (105) (45) (39) (25) Other non cash adju. 86 41 37 18 CF from operations 246 298 355 403 Capital expenditure (46) (86) (72) (77) Δ in investments (62) (4) - - Other investing cash flow 4 (14) 5 5 CF from investing Activities (104) (104) (67) (72) Issue of equity 11 12 - - Δ in debt funds (213) (149) (213) (306) Dividends paid - - - - Other financing cash flow (44) (71) (43) (24) CF from Financial Activities (246) (207) (256) (330) Δ in cash and cash bank balance (105) (13) 32 2 Effect of exchange rate changes - - - - Opening cash 185 80 68 100 Closing cash 80 68 100 102

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet | Crore

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18EEquity 666 673 673 673 Reserves & Surplus 1,422 1,752 2,044 2,358 Networth 2,089 2,425 2,717 3,031 Minority Interest 2 2 2 2 LT liabilties & provisions 52 43 43 43 Total Debt 1,031 905 692 386

Source of funds 3,174 3,376 3,454 3,462

Net fixed assets 110 133 140 121 CWIP 8 8 9 9 Goodwill 2,334 2,469 2,469 2,469 Other non current assets 231 269 269 269 Loans and advances 44 66 72 77 Current Investments 68 77 77 77 Debtors 289 304 326 347 Cash & Cash equivalents 80 69 100 102 Other current assets 263 272 308 328 Trade payables 83 89 109 116 Current liabilities 155 175 190 202 Provisions 14 27 18 19

Application of funds 3,174 3,376 3,454 3,462

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios (Year-end March) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18EPer share data (|)EPS-diluted 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.6 Cash per share 0.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 BV 31.5 29.5 35.8 40.1 Operating Ratios (%)EBITDA Margin 12.5 12.7 12.7 13.0 PBT Margin 8.0 9.1 9.8 10.0 PAT Margin 7.7 8.3 8.1 8.2 Return Ratios (%)RoNW 11.2 12.9 12.0 11.6 RoCE 8.8 11.7 12.5 12.9 Valuation Ratios (x)P/E 11.3 10.5 9.3 8.6 EV / EBITDA 9.1 7.9 6.6 5.4 Price to Book Value 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 EV / Net Sales 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 Mcap / Net Sales 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Turnover RatiosDebtor days 5 5 7 7 Creditors days 26 30 28 29 Solvency RatiosTotal Debt / Equity 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 Current Ratio 3.6 5.3 5.3 4.7 Quick Ratio 3.6 5.3 5.3 4.7 Debt / EBITDA 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10

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ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (IT) CMP M Cap EPS (|) P/E (x) RoCE (%)(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E

Cyient (INFENT) 502 540 Hold 5,652 29.0 32.2 38.6 17.3 15.6 13.0 11.7 9.7 8.1 20.3 19.9 21.4 17.1 17.0 18.0Eclerx (ECLSER) 1,425 1,360 Sell 5,875 87.9 85.9 97.5 16.2 16.6 14.6 10.9 11.0 9.4 42.7 36.1 35.8 33.5 28.5 27.7Firstsource (FIRSOU) 40 46 Buy 2,655 4.0 5.1 5.7 10.6 8.3 7.4 8.1 6.4 4.9 10.6 12.4 14.5 12.7 14.0 13.8HCL Tech (HCLTEC) 850 950 Buy 119,994 40.0 58.1 64.1 21.3 14.6 13.3 17.0 10.5 8.8 23.5 30.3 30.0 20.7 25.8 24.7Infosys (INFTEC) 975 1,110 Buy 222,839 59.0 63.1 69.2 16.5 15.5 14.1 11.0 9.7 8.5 30.2 29.3 28.9 21.8 20.9 20.6KPIT Tech (KPISYS) 138 150 Hold 2,750 14.1 11.5 14.8 9.8 12.0 9.3 5.9 7.7 5.7 23.7 18.0 20.7 20.4 14.6 16.3Mindtree (MINCON) 473 490 Hold 7,943 35.9 25.4 32.6 13.2 18.6 14.5 9.0 10.4 8.7 31.1 23.0 27.5 25.2 17.3 20.9NIIT Technologies (NIITEC) 416 450 Hold 1,490 45.8 39.9 45.6 9.0 9.5 9.1 2.3 2.2 1.8 28.6 24.9 25.0 17.6 13.8 14.2Persistent (PSYS) 610 725 Buy 4,879 37.2 40.0 47.0 18.3 17.0 14.5 11.2 9.3 7.4 27.9 27.3 28.1 21.2 20.4 20.7TCS (TCS) 2,260 2,465 Hold 442,666 123.2 132.2 144.7 19.1 17.8 16.2 14.2 13.2 12.0 41.2 36.8 34.1 33.1 29.5 27.2Tech Mahindra (TECMAH) 471 525 Buy 46,271 31.7 35.0 37.5 14.9 13.5 12.6 9.7 9.6 7.9 25.5 23.9 25.0 21.7 18.8 19.7Wipro (WIPRO) 480 510 Hold 118,216 36.1 33.7 36.5 13.3 14.3 13.1 9.6 8.9 7.6 19.6 17.5 16.6 19.1 16.3 14.8

RoE (%)Sector / Company

EV/EBITDA (x)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 12

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. 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Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. 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