Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study Federal Railroad Administration
Stakeholder Group Workshop 1 – Columbia, South Carolina
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 , 2 0 1 6
Baseline Conditions and Market AssessmentScott Richman, CH2M
Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment
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Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment
Presentation and Breakout Session Study Area Overview
(Megaregions & Core Based Statistical Areas)Population and Growth (2015-2040)Major Travel Patterns and Demand Potential Key Geographic FeaturesState Plans and PoliciesBreakout Groups Work Session
• Opportunities and Constraints• Initial Connections
• Assess Existing and Forecast Travel Market‒ Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) 2015 and 2040
population‒ Key destinations‒ Major infrastructure - corridors with highest
demand• Draw-out Most Important Info from
State/Regional Rail and Multimodal Plans‒ Passenger and freight rail, highways, air travel and
seaports ‒ Major travel patterns and demand‒ Planned passenger rail service/corridors
• Assess Key Opportunities and Constraints‒ Baseline and market conditions‒ Input from stakeholders
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Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment Report
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Megaregions
• Emerging planning context• Geographic areas combined –
similar characteristics + mutual interests
• By 2050 – 75% of U.S. pop. in 10 Megaregions
• 3 SE Megaregions: ‒ DC-Virginia‒ Piedmont (AL, TN, GA, NC and SC)‒ Florida
• Transportation inherently Megaregional
• HPR networks strengthen connectivity in Megaregions
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Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)
CBSAs:• Geographic area defined by Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) • Urban center min. 10,000 pop.• Core with surrounding areas tied by
commuting
CONNECT tool: • Uses pop. data (2015 – 2055)• Identifies viable corridors through CBSA
pairs analysis• CBSA pairs less than 800 miles apart -
uses national trip table
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Population by State
Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016
SE Region – some of highest forecast growth areas in U.S. (2015-2040)
‒ SC and TN 33%‒ GA 35%‒ NC 34%‒ VA 23%‒ FL 38%
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
2040 (forecast) 2015
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CBSAs - 2015 and forecast (2040) population
0 4,000,000 8,000,000
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West PalmBeach
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-NewportNews
Jacksonville
Richmond
2040 (forecasted) 2015
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CBSAs Population Growth (2015-2040)*
* Core and Participatory States, based on most populous CBSAs (2015). Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News
Jacksonville
Richmond
2015 to 2040 - Percent change
Major Travel Modes and Patterns
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Amtrak – SE Network
Route Cities Served Passengers (2015)
Auto Train Lorton, Virginia - Sanford, Florida 271,434
Silver Meteor Silver Star
New York-Miami; New York-Tampa-Miami341,999378,839
Palmetto Daily New York-Savannah 206,305
Crescent NY-Phila.-Wash., DC - Charlotte-Atlanta-Birmingham - New Orleans 278,708
Carolinian (NC) NY-Phila.-Wash., DC-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte 295,519
Piedmont (NC) Raleigh - Charlotte 159,688
NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Lynchburg 179,148
NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC – RichmondNY-Was., DC – Newport News 138,716
NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Norfolk 119,787
Source: https://www.narprail.org/site/assets/files/1038/trains_2015.pdf
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Amtrak –Network and Busiest Stations
State Network Routes
# of Stations
Boardings and Alightings in
2015
Stations w/ over 70,000 Boardings and Alightings in
2015
Wash., D.C. 6 1 4,971,128 Union Station
Virginia 6 20 1,606,007Alexandria, Charlottesville,
Fredericksburg, Lorton, Lynchburg, Newport News,
Richmond-Staples Mill
Florida 4 18 1,027,196 Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Sanford, and Tampa
N. Carolina 6 16 944,706 Cary, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, Raleigh
S. Carolina 4 11 217,984 Charleston
Georgia 4 5 164,153 Atlanta
Tennessee 1 2 75,944 Memphis
Source: https://www.amtrak.com/state-fact-sheets
• Florida:‒ Tri-Rail service between Miami, Fort Lauderdale,
and West Palm Beach‒ SunRail serves the greater Orlando area
• Georgia:‒ MARTA provides bus and rapid rail service to most
urbanized parts of the Atlanta metropolitan region
• North Carolina:‒ Charlotte Area Transit (CATS) and Lynx Rail System
serve the Charlotte metropolitan area• Wash., D.C./Virginia:
‒ Virginia Railway Express (VRE) serves Northern Virginia and the District of Columbia
‒ Norfolk Tide‒ WMATA
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Existing Regional/Metropolitan/Commuter/LRT Networks
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Proposed Brightline
• Proposed Brightline (All Aboard Florida) project connecting Miami to Orlando with stops in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach
• Service between West Palm Beach and Miami is scheduled to begin in 2017
• Future service to Orlando• Development includes updates
to the existing Florida East Coast Corridor railway
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Interstate Corridors
CorridorApprox.
Corridor Length (miles)
CorridorPopulation
(2015)
Corridor Population (2040
Forecast)
Interstate 75: Florida Peninsula to Knoxville, TN 828 18,180,155 24,917,560
Interstate 40: Memphis, TN to KingsGrant, NC 766 11,109,504 15,549,073
Interstate 81: Knoxville, TN to Washington D.C. 487 7,681,647 9,665,453
Interstate 24: Atlanta, GA to Nashville, TN 250 2,684,891 3,801,180
Interstate 85: La Grange, GA to Durham, NC 438 13,684,386 19,319,014
Interstate 4: Daytona, FL to Orlando,Tampa, FL 132 6,293,217 8,809,956
Interstate 95:Wash., D.C. to Richmond, VAMiami, FL to Savannah, GA
109462
7,097,6669,678,355
9,481,77213,139,107
Sources: AADT from States DOTs; Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016
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Active Freight Lines, Major Freight Corridors
• Two Class I carriers provide N-S and E-W links between seaports and inland customers
• Both Class 1 carriers use local short line and regional carriers (e.g. FEC, NCRR) to service certain local customers
• Major corridors:‒ CSX Shenandoah and Piedmont lines (Crescent
Corridor) – along I-81 and I-85, connects Birmingham and Manassas
‒ Norfolk Southern Heartland Corridor along US 460 -Port of Virginia - Roanoke
‒ CSX N-S (National Gateway) along I-95 ‒ CSX A-Line and S-Line from Florida to NE
Source: FRA Freight Policy (2014)
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Airports
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000Enplanements (FAA 2015)
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Major Seaports
Major Seaports (2014 Rank by Total Tons)
• Mobile, AL (9)
• Norfolk Harbor, VA (14)
• Tampa, FL (21)
• Savannah, GA (22)
• Newport News, VA (27)
• Port Everglades, FL (30)
• Charleston, SC (33)
• Jacksonville, FL (38)
Source:http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_57.html:
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Geographic Features
Represent Potential Constraints:
• Mountains - Appalachians• Major water bodies• National/state parks• Military bases• American Indian reservations
State Plans and Policies
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Washington D.C. Draft District Rail Plan (2016)
• Draft District Rail Plan submitted to FRA• Goals: add capacity, grow economic
opportunity, and enhance quality of life• Passenger rail projects: improvements to
Union Station, upgrades/increased capacity on the Long Bridge/L’Enfant Station Corridor, new midday commuter rail storage capacity
• Projects will provide needed capacity, connectivity, and operational flexibility for growing demand between District and points north and south
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Virginia’s Statewide Rail Plan (2013)
• Part of overall transportation planning framework
• Supports the VTrans goals for mobility, connectivity, and accessibility
• Offers options to corridors with highest density and growth potential
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North Carolina’s Comprehensive State Rail Plan (2015)
• Envisions connecting metro areas and communities to E. Coast destinations + enhancing movement of goods
• Priority corridors – those with continued investments and highest commuter rail potential
• Supports Governor’s 25-Year Vision (2014) - includes freight and passenger rail-related goals
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South Carolina’s Statewide Rail Plan (2014)
• Improved intercity service linking Charlotte, NC to Atlanta, GA, and Charlotte-Columbia connectivity
• 2030 Rail network consists of current Amtrak routes
• 2050 system no change except operations of 79-110 mph passenger trains (separate track) along current Amtrak Upstate route
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Georgia State Rail Plan (2015)
• Envisions a safe and energy efficient state rail system
• Expands access and enhances mobility in environmentally sustainable manner
• Emphasizes new intercity and commuter rail services to enhance mobility
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Florida: FDOT Multimodal Unfunded Needs Plan (2040)
• Objectives: interregional connectivity, intermodal connectivity, and economic development
• Recognizes passenger rail to address capacity needs
• Projects: Florida East Coast Railway Corridor improvements, Tri-Rail Station improvements, and passenger and freight rail upgrades.
• Florida is currently updating it’s Rail System Plan
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Tennessee’s 25-Year Long- Range Transportation Policy Plan (2015)
• Provides foundation for prioritizing transportation investments • Formed using framework of Policy Papers relevant to TDOT’s vision
and Guiding Principles• Guiding principle: “Provide for the Efficient Movement of People and
Freight: Optimize the movement of people and goods by providing greater access to transportation services for all people and by building better connections among different modes of transportation.”
• TDOT is updating statewide rail plan
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Transition to Breakout Session
AgendaStakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info • Relevant Data• State Plans Opportunities and Constraints• Refine List• Top 3Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene into One Group and Report Out
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Transition to Breakout Session
Map Overview…GO!
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Breakout Session
Stakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info Feedback on Data:
• CBSAs - Population and Growth (2015-2040)• Major Travel Patterns and Demand (multiple modes)• Key Geographic Features
Feedback on State Plans and PoliciesWork Sessions• Opportunities and Constraints• Initial Connections
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Breakout Session
Work SessionsOpportunities and Constraints• Refine List• Top 3Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene and Report Out
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Opportunities and Constraints
• Funding (capital and operations)• Built and natural environment • Competing modes• Demographics• Public attitudes• Policy priorities• Costs of inaction• Others?