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Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook
Matt HourihanAugust 19, 2013for the American Association of State Colleges and Universities
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars
ARRA Funding
All Other
USDA
NSF
NASA
DOE
NIH
DOD
Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-14.8%
-8.2%
-7.8%
-7.3%
20.2%
66.5%
88.4%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Defense Activities
Agriculture
Health (NIH)
Environment Agencies
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Commerce (NIST)
Applied Energy Programs
R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars
Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DefenseDiscretionary
NondefenseDiscretionary
Mandatory
Net Interest
Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018
Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014
R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)
R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Estimated FY 2013 R&D Funding
Agency / Dept
Nominal Cut from FY12
Nominal Percentage Cut from FY12
Resulting Budget On Par With…
Total R&D $9.3 billion -6.5% 2002
Defense S&T $619 million -4.6% 2002
NIH $1.6 billion -5.2% 2002
Energy* $479 million -4.4% 2001
NSF $227 million -4.0% 2010
NASA $749 million -6.6% Late 1980s?
Agriculture $154 million -6.6% 1998
*Includes Office of Science, Energy Programs, and NNSA
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Admin FY 2014 R&D Priorities Innovation / Science
Clear shifts from D to R (especially use-inspired + applied), and from Defense to Nondefense
COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)
Advanced manufacturing (NIST + elsewhere)
Clean Energy
Homeland Security (Biodefense facility) + NNSA
Rolling back sequestration Every agency would receive major increases above FY13
post-sequester levels
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
-2.9%-11.1%
-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%
2.3%4.2%5.4%
10.0%10.8%
21.0%23.7%
44.6%181.7%
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
TOTALDOD Other
DOD S&TEPAVA
NIHDOT
NASADOE Science
USDANSF
Other HHSDOE Defense
NISTNOAA
DOE EnergyDHS
R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)
Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Congress So Far Two budgets:
Pre-sequester: President’s Request and Senate
$1.058 trillion
Post-Sequester: House (and current law)
$967 billion
R&D funding decisions so far (mostly) reflect these differences
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Congress So Far (Cont) Areas of (rough) agreement:
Defense (including DOE), Homeland Security, planetary science, Veterans-related R&D, STEM reorganization, USDA
Areas of (rough) disagreement general support but divergent funding: NSF, NIST, NASA
exploration systems and technology, DOE Office of Science
Clearly different priorities: clean energy R&D, natural resources and environmental science
Unknown: NIH, but House Labor-HHS bill will be much smaller
Does any of this actually matter?
U.S. R&D INVESTMENT
Looking Ahead Congress now on recess with a lot of work to do and the
clock is ticking on FY and debt ceiling
Big question still remains: how to fit a $1.06 trillion budget into a $967 billion dollar hole?
Almost certainly heading for CR By law (for now), FY14 discretionary spending must be ~2%
lower than FY13
Only gets lifted with concessions: are we innocent bystanders?
See http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/ later this month for a full data breakdown of appropriations
