The Oxford Farming Conference 2010
Approaching the limits:Approaching the limits:Feeding 9+ billion humans whilst sustaining g gcivilisation
Dr Andrew West Chief ExecutiveDr Andrew West, Chief ExecutiveAgResearch Ltd
Crises
The world’s population has grown e o d s popu at o as g otremendously – forecast to continue to 2050
9
10
7
8
9
5
6
llion
s
3
4Bi
0
1
2
01000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
Indices of population and productionp p p1960 =1
8
9Poultry = 8.5
6
7
8
5
6
Pig = 4.0
3
4
H 2 05
Pig 4.0
Beef = 2.1Milk = 2.2
1
2Sheep/goat = 2.0Human = 2.05
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
TropicalTropical deforestation is responsible for20% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Net deforestation worldwide ~7.3 million ha per yr
[Source: Wassenaar, T. et al. (2007) Projecting land use changes in the Neotropics: The geography of pasture expansion into forest, Global Environmental Change, 17, 86–104. ]
Extinctions
Species known to be extinct due to human activity 785p yin the last 500 years: 785Species facing a high risk of extinction:
Mammals: 1 in 4Birds: 1 in 8Birds: 1 in 8Amphibians: 1 in 3Tortoises, freshwater turtles: almost 1 in 2
Estimated ratio of the current rate of extinctions to the normal background rate:
100 to 10,000
[Source: data - Species Survival Commission and World Conservation Union, see http://www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/redlist2007/threatened_species_facts_2007.htm; photo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tigerramki.jpg]
Areas of physical and economic water p yscarcity
Little or no water scarcityPhysical water scarcityApproaching physical water scarcity
[Source: WBCSD (2009) Facts and Trends - Water, version 2, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, [http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/lD1tMGiLZ7NL9mBOL2aQ/WaterFactsAndTrends-Update.pdf]
Approaching physical water scarcityEconomic water scarcityNot estimated
World consumption and production of
Fertiliser consumption
p pfertiliser
100
1201618
80
100
101214
nes o
f N
nes o
f P
40
60
6810
ion tonn
ion tonn
20
40
246
Milli
Mill
00
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year[Sources: Smil, V. (2002) The Earth's Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics and Change, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA, Ch.9; EFMA http://cms.efma.org/EPUB/easnet.dll/GetDoc?APPL=1&DAT_IM=0010FA&DWNLD=WorldConsumption2.pdf ]
Mean annual temperature over New Zealand p– 1853 to 2008
1971-2000 averageSmoothed
time seriese se es
[Source: http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/clivar/pastclimate]
Lovelock’s Gaia theoryy
4 billion years ago
Avg. temperature ~15°C
Today Avg. temperature ~15°C
How?
Gaia might shift its steady-state to be 4-5°C g ywarmer – consequences?
M j h iMajor changes in rainfall patterns
Wildfires
New patterns of pest distribution
Falling fertilityg y
GMGM
Non-carbon sources of energygy
SolarSolarTidal
Geothermal
Removal of “traditional” individual rightsg
Change in dietg
Possible New Zealand responsep
What does this mean for New Zealand?
~4 5Land area larger than the UK
Plenty~4.5 million people
Plenty fresh waterpeople water
IsolatedIsolated location High
erosion
Low pest l llevels
Tectonic plate boundary – hills and mountains
Ruminants harvest hard-to-reach plant mass
Reduce the environmental impact of farmingp g
Improve efficiency – less need for N &
P fertiliser
Less
P fertiliser
Less methane
Less nitrogen and nitrous oxide
Sequester carbon
Grass & clover fed, rainfall, legume N?g
Integrated value chainsg
Use every available part of a ruminanty p
Plants in their own rightg
