Economic Impact Study
Marcellus Shale report from economists and industry experts at Penn State
2010• $8 billion annual impact and
107,000 jobs•$900 million in state/local
tax revenue*
2020•$14 billion annual impact
and 175,000 jobs•$1.4 billion state/local tax
revenue
*30 percent tax revenue remains local
AAA Regular Gasoline and NYMEX Crude Oil Price
AAA Diesel and NYMEX Crude Oil Price
3035404550556065707580859095
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
China United States Other
Total consumption
Annual growth
Forecast
World liquid fuels consumption is projected toincrease by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2010
million barrels per day million barrels per day
Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors
Speculation, hedging, investmentSpeculation, hedging, investment
Global economic growthGlobal economic growth
OPEC production decisionsOPEC production decisions
Exchange rates and InflationExchange rates and Inflation
Spare production capacitySpare production capacity
Global Oil PricesGlobal Oil Prices
Non-OPEC supply growthNon-OPEC supply growth InventoriesInventories
Geo-political risksGeo-political risks
WeatherWeather
Price Summary
Year Percent Change
2008 2009 2010 2011 08-09 09-10 10-11
WTI Crudea ($/barrel) 99.57 61.66 80.74 83.50 -38.1 30.9 3.4
Gasolineb ($/gal)3.26 2.35 2.84 2.96 -27.9 20.8 4.4
Dieselc ($/gal) 3.80 2.46 2.95 3.12 -35.1 19.9 5.7
Heating Oild ($/gal) 3.38 2.52 2.91 3.10 -25.4 15.4 6.6
Natural Gasd ($/mcf) 13.89 11.97 11.59 12.54 -13.8 -3.2 8.2
Electricityd (cents/kwh)11.26 11.55 11.50 11.74 2.5 -0.4 2.1
a West Texas Intermediate. b Average regular pump price.c On-highway retail. d U.S. Residential average.
* Retail price minus crude oil cost minus taxes, per gallon
Summer retail regular-grade gasoline prices projected to average $2.92 per gallon
dollars per gallon
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Tax Crude Margin* Monthly retail price
2007Avg. $2.93
2008Avg. $3.81
2009Avg. $2.44
2010 Forecast
avg. $2.92
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Tax Crude Margin* Monthly retail price
2007Avg. $2.85
2008Avg. $4.37
2009Avg. $2.46
2010 Forecast
avg. $2.97
* Retail price minus crude oil cost minus taxes, per gallon
Summer retail diesel prices are projected to average$2.97 per gallon, up $0.51 from last summer
dollars per gallon
37.4
24.0
22.7
7.4
8.6
28.0
20.7
10.9
40.4
3436
26
0.2
4
71 95
1
1
23
16
5
42
% ChangeConsumption Quads % Share Quads % ShareLiquid Fuels and Other Petroleum 38.35 38.3% 42.02 36.7% 9.6%
Oil 37.40 37.4% 38.10 33.3% 1.9%Ethanol, Biodiesel and Green Liquids 0.95 0.9% 3.92 3.4% 312.6%
Natural Gas 23.91 23.9% 25.56 22.3% 6.9%
Coal 22.41 22.4% 25.11 21.9% 12.0%
Nuclear Power 8.46 8.5% 9.41 8.2% 11.2%
Hydropower 2.46 2.5% 2.99 2.6% 21.5%
Biomass & Renewables 4.27 4.3% 9.19 8.0% 115.2%Other* 0.24 0.2% 0.22 0.2%
Total 100.09 100.0% 114.51 100.0% 14.4%
Oil and Natural Gas 61.31 61.3% 63.66 55.6% 3.8%
Oil, Natural Gas and Coal 83.72 83.6% 88.77 77.5% 6.0%
2008 2035
Carbon Emissions Per Capita Assuming Waxman-Markey Targets Are Met
Source: Garrett A. Vaughn, “How Much Will Americans Pay to Meet President Obama’s Timetable for Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions?” Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, ER-676, April 2009.
Metric Tons of CO2 Per Capita
Targeted Reductions