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India
Research
1 July 2010
DOLATCAPITAL
Sector
Note
Analyst : Neha SarwalTel : +9122 4096 9740E-mail: [email protected]
Fertilizer Sector Report
Sowing the seeds of Change...!!!
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Sowing the seeds of Change...!!!
We expect the sector to continue to gradually re-rate with pro active and favorable policy initiatives. With the
step forward on complex fertilizer already in place, we hope that the government would follow through with
similar steps on the urea segment.
We believe companies with strong raw-material tie-ups, plans for expansion and offering customized products
would lead to higher volume growth. We therefore prefer stock specific approach .We are positive on Coromandel
International (CIL) due to its strong business model and GSFC- beneficiary of NBS policy and high earnings
visibility.
Relooking the Fertilizer Sector:The latest Government Policy on Fertilizer Pricing and Subsidy is encouraging and a welcome step in the direction of de-
regulation of the industry.
We have identified the following drivers for industry that would act as a game changer and would make the sector
attractive for the future growth potential which till now witnessed restricted growth due to its controlled regime.
Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) Raw-Material Sourcing
New Investment Policy-4 (NPS-4)
Positive on Complex FertilizerThe shift in policy regime from product based subsidy to nutrient based subsidy opens a plethora of opportunities for
complex players. This change would encourage use of right nutrients as per requirement of soil, thus limiting the excess
use of highly subsidized nutrient which has resulted in soil degradation and effected productivity (annexure). With this
new policy, players with established raw-material linkages and offering customized products would enjoy an edge over
the other players. This in turn shall benefit players like Coromandel International as they have build up strategic tie-ups
and strong marketing and distribution networks.
The Nutrient Based Subsidy has also introduced a fixed subsidy regime and has left the market price floating in accordancewith the demand and supply situation with a possibility of intervention by Government if the prices rise unreasonably. This
has already led to an increase in prices of DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate) and MOP (Muriate of Potash) by Rs. 600 per
tonne i.e. 6.4% and 13.5% respectively. This would result in efficient players being rewarded over their counterparts.
The sourcing of raw material is the key to enjoy the fruit of efficiency as it is the most critical factor determining sustainability
of business. We believe that this is the key area where Coromandel shall perform better than its peers. Its tie-up with
Foskor and Tunisian Joint Venture with GSFC would lead to additional flow of phosphoric acid which would in turn lead
to production growth of 18% and 11% in FY11 and FY12. GSFC will also get access to the additional raw-material and
would lead to production of customized complex fertilizers.
We remain positive on the complex fertilizer space and we recommend an accumulate on Coromandel International
Fertilizer and a buy on GSFC.
Urea opportunities aheadSimilar to the policy pronouncements for the complex fertilizers, we expect the New Investment Policy IV to address the
key issues for the urea segment as well. The key focus shall be to reduce the dependency on imports and encourage
capacity expansion in India. The current urea capacity at 20 Mn MT has been stagnant for over a decade now.
We also observe that the expected policy is part of the ongoing series of steps that the government has been taking to
move towards deregulation of the sector. The first leg of this has been witnessed with gas replacing all other high cost
and unviable feedstocks. Further, the linking of additional production through Greenfield/Brownfield /Revamping to
International Parity Pricing (IPP) has brought in the much needed impetus required to attract investments. NPS-III was in
effect till 31st March, 2010.We believe ,the NPS-IV which is just around the corner shall continue with the pro active
mode and attract capacity expansion. One of the provisions that would be looked into keenly would be revising the floor
price which currently is fixed at US $ 250 per tonne.With the above backdrop, we believe Chambal will stand to benefit as it has recently commenced its brownfield expansion
which will make any additional production over and above the cut-off limit qualify for IPP. We assume the volumes to
increase from 1.9 MT to 2.1 in FY10 and 2.4MT in FY11E.However,we recommend a reduce on the stock as it is fairly
priced and trades at 10.8x FY11E EPS.
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Corrective stepGovernment of India has been introducing corrective measures in phases. Recent volatility in fertilizer price scenario has
led to the formation of New Policy reducing government control. The Policies introduced recently have led to partial
decontrol and is gradually shifting the focus from Government as a Regulator to it acting as an Enabler.
Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) PolicyThe main objective of nutrient based subsidy (NBS) is to encourage balanced use of fertilizer. In the current framework,
consumption is skewed towards Urea and subsidy is floating and disbursed according to the final product. But with
change in policy subsidy would be based on per nutrient consumption thereby ensuring proper intake of nutrient as per
the soil requirement. This would result into higher productivity. Also the subsidy allocation has been capped by the GOI
leaving the MRP floating for the non-Urea companies. This would ensure efficient player to be awarded for its efficiency.
The ultimate goal would be to introduce a mechanism to directly provide subsidy to end users. However, that has a long
way to go. Nevertheless, the recent policy announcements are the need of the hour for increasing the competitiveness
among the producers and attracting investments to enhance the capacity. The below table reflects the effect of balanced
use of fertilizers.
Importance of Balanced (NPK) Fertilization of Crops in India
% increase due toCrop Group No.of Trials Control(kg/ha) N NP NPK
Cereals 2997 1803 46.8 74.3 96.3
Oilseeds 369 897 30.7 63.4 87.6
Pulses 42 586 33.4 99.2 117
Source:faidelhi.org-Seminar-2009
Changing the Landscape - New Investment Policy on the Verge of Announcement
The Fertilizer space in India did not attract investments due to strict price controls. NPS-3 saw attractive investment
policies for Urea players by way of incentivising them for capacity expansion. Further to that, NPS-4 policy is verge on
announcement and we believe it would further increase the scope for capacity expansion. This policy would be meaningful
if there is a hike in floor price which currently is fixed at $250 per tonne. Higher floor price would act as a cushion to thecurrently ruling high gas prices. Looking at these efforts of the GOI towards self-sufficiency and size of opportunity
available we are optimistic on the prospects for the Fertilizer players, and see potential for stock specific re-ratings.
The main driving factors for fertilizer business is regulation and raw-material availability and accordingly we have positioned
the companys .We believe that companies that
Expand its product profile and invest in product development
Have linkages of raw-materials
Plans in for Greenfield/Brownfield Expansion would be able to stand out from their counterparts.
Under this backdrop, we feel Coromandel Fertilizer, Chambal Fertilizer and GSFC are well placed to plunge on the
opportunities available.
Competitive Advantage Ranking based On
Energy Potential on
Companies Consumption (Gcal) Unregulated Capacity(Mt)
Chambal 2 1
Tata Chemicals (TCL) 1 2
RCF 4 4
Nagarjuna 3 3
Industry Key Drivers-Company Positioning
Source : Dolat Research
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Gujarat State Fertilizer
GSFC is well poised to capitalize on opportunity to cater to the fastest growing state in agriculture. We are positive on the
business model on back of diversified product portfolio based on a common sulphur based raw-material, and capacity
addition (Methanol- 180,000 tpa and Caprolactam-70% increase in capacity to 120,000 tpa) these shall be the key
drivers of volume growth. The restructuring of debt post 2004 has resulted in lower debt-equity ratio (2.26 in FY04 to
0.17 in FY09) and lower interest outgo. Further, favorable government policy announcement of Nutrient Based Subsidyhave set the pace for a sustained growth momentum. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating (target price Rs.325 implying
8xFY11E earnings)
Coromandel International
CIL, a Murugappa Group company, is a leading manufacturer of a wide range of Farm inputs and is the second largest
manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers. The company is diversifying its revenue base towards the non-subsidy farm business
by entering into high margin products like specialty nutrients and pesticides. Its presence in niche areas of complex
fertilizers and assured supply of key raw materials places it in an advantageous position. CIL has also forayed into
increasing its reach through aggressive initiatives on the rural areas . At CMP of Rs 466, CFL trades at a P/E of 12x
FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a price target of Rs 561 (15x FY11E EPS).
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Chambal Fertilizer
Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals (CFCL), being one of the largest private player in Urea, is set to benefit from likely
policy initiatives under NPS-4. The ongoing efforts to increase production capacity coupled with focus on cost of critical
inputs like power (energy) would benefit at the level of operating margin. Also, linking of additional production to IPP over
and above the cut-off limit would be visible at the top-line level. With the revival of economy, the other business divisions
viz., textile and shipping revenues are also in a better position verses last year. However at CMP of Rs.65 the stocktrades at 10.8x FY11E earnings and is fairly valued and hence we initiate coverage with a Reduce recommendation.
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BSE Sensex 17,503
NSE Nifty 5249
Scrip Details
Equity Rs.797mn
Face Value Rs.10/-
Market Cap Rs.20.6bn
US$443.9mn
52 week High/Low Rs.265.85 / 130.15
1-Month Avg. Volume 2703164
BSE Code 532160
NSE Symbol GUJSTATFIN
Bloomberg Code GSF IN
Reuters Code GSFN.BO
Business Group - State Govt. Gujarat
Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)
Promoter 37.84
FIIs 6.57
MF/Banks/FIs 25.07
Public / Others 30.52
Segmental Push to drive growth...!!!
GSFC is well poised to capitalize on opportunity to cater to the fastest growing state in agriculture. We are
positive on the business model on back of diversified product portfolio based on a common sulphur based raw-
material, and capacity addition (Methanol- 180,000 tpa and Caprolactam-70% increase in capacity to 120,000 tpa) these shall be the key drivers of volume growth. The restructuring of debt post 2004 has resulted in lower
debt-equity ratio (2.26 in FY04 to 0.17 FY09) and lower interest outgo. Further, favorable government policy
announcement of Nutrient Based Subsidy have set the pace for a sustained growth momentum. We initiate
coverage with a Buy rating (target price Rs.325 implying 8xFY11E earnings)
Gujarat State Fertilizer and Chemicals
CMP: Rs 259
Target Price: Rs 325 Fertilizer / Buy
Investment Rationale
Productive use of ideal capacity
GSFC is currently refurbishing an old ammonia unit with a cost of Rs.3.3Bn at
Baroda to produce 175,000 mtpa of methanol. This expansion is relatively cheaper
than Greenfield set up for a Methanol Unit by 35%.The production is expected to
commence by 1QFY12. This captive capacity of methanol, assured availability ofgas and strong demand would help sustain revenue growth. Based on our
assumption of average realization of USD 300 per tonne, and at full capacity, the
incremental revenue for the company will be Rs.2.4Bn.
Playing on the Strength
GSFC enjoys higher OPM on account of value added chemicals. It has drawn
plans to expand its capacity for Caprolacturm by 70% to 120000 tonnes .It is also
de-bottlenecking its existing capacity by 10% at a cost of Rs.1 billion. The enhanced
capacity would be operational by Q3FY11. The plant over 3-4 years operates at
100% capacity and hence we believe the company would achieve 100% utilization
of increased capacity over a period of time. At full potential the incremental revenue
accrued to the company would be approx Rs.3750-4000 Mn.Assured Raw-Material Linkage
GSFC has entered into a JV with GCT Tunisia and Coromandel International for
producing 3,60,000 Mt of phosphoric acid. GSFC will have right on half of the
production. The production would go into mainstream from 4QFY11. This will
ensure increase in production which was hampered due to raw-material constraints
in FY09 (production fell by 8%). The impact of increased raw-material availability
would be visible from FY12. We estimate the revenue to be Rs.28 Bn in FY12.
Policy flow-Sector Perspective
The recent policy initiatives by the government are favorable for complex players.
With GSFC focusing on this category, we believe it would reap benefit from the
Nutrient Based Subsidy policy. Its DAP market share at 7% and raw-materialefficiency through tie-ups will augur well for the company. Also, lower dependence
on subsidy and fertilizer bonds would ease the working capital flow for GSFC.
Valuation
GSFC has sustained continuous growth in its cash flows which have grown from
Rs.1.4 billion in FY06 to Rs.5.4 billion in FY2008, and to Rs.8.2 billion in FY2009.
Our assumptions reflect only maintenance capex, we expect GSFC to generate
sustainable cash flow of Rs. 3- 4 bn per annum. We initiate coverage and
recommend a Buy with a target price of Rs.325 to trade at 8xFY11E earnings.Financial
Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)
FY09 58,808 64.8 8,501 14.5 4,994 8.4 62.8 108.0 4.1 2.8 29.3 33.0FY10P 40,192 (31.7) 4,477 11.1 2,545 6.2 31.9 (49.1) 8.1 6.0 12.5 15.5
FY11E 39,720 (1.2) 6,126 15.4 3,238 8.0 40.6 27.2 6.4 2.6 14.2 17.1
FY12E 44,193 11.3 7,256 16.4 3,900 8.7 48.9 20.4 5.3 2.1 15.0 18.9
Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.
GSFC relative to Sensex
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Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
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Company BackgroundGSFC is privately owned with stakeholders including Government of Gujarat (40% stake). GSFCs portfolio constitutes
of fertilizers and Industrial Products. In fertilizer segment, it has one of the largest market shares in Diammonium Phosphate
(DAP) in domestic market, and marginal presence in Urea segment. In Industrial segment it enjoys monopoly in melamine
and MEK oxime and is also the largest manufacturer of caprolactum and Nylon-6 in the country. It enters into contracts
for its gas requirement. Fertilizer segment contributed 70% to the topline in FY2010.
Location Capacities
Fertilizer Nagar (Baroda) Urea -3.64 Lakh tpa
Ammonium Sulphate-1.96 Lakh tpa
Caprolactam- 70,000 tpa
Sulphuric Acid Plant-1.32 Lakh tpa
Melamine-15,000 tpa
MEK-Oxime-4450 tpa
Sikka (Jamnagar) DAP-7.22 Lakh tpa
Joint Venture
TIFERT:GSFC along with Coromandel International Ltd ,Groupe Chimique Tunisien(GCT) and Compagnie des phosphates de
Gafsa entered into an agreement to set up 0.36Mn tpa phosphoric acid plant called TIFERT (Tunisian Indian Fertilizer).
GSFC and CIL will hold 15% stake each and rest would be held by other stakeholders. Through this JV, it will have
access to 0.18 Mn tonnes of raw material. The production will begin in 4QFY11.
Caprolactum Segment:
GSFC plans to increase its Caprolactum capacity from 70,000 tonnes pa to 1, 20,000 tonnes per annum.. The key raw-
materials for manufacturing Caprolactum are Benzene and Sulphuric Acid.
Methanol Plant:
GSFC plans to set up methanol plant of 525 tonnes per day by converting existing Ammonia-1 plant with total investmentof Rs.3300 Mn.The key raw material for production of methanol is natural gas.
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INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Net Sales 58,808 40,192 39,720 44,193
Other income 713 1,130 759 797
Total Income 59,521 41,322 40,478 44,989
Total Expenditure 50,307 35,715 33,594 36,936
Raw Material 38,192 25,422 23,692 25,728
Employee Expenses 3,890 2,902 2,607 3,063
Power, Oil & Fuel 3,069 3,019 2,940 3,316Selling & Administrative Expenses 3,581 2,846 3,196
Provisions & Write Offs
Other Expenses 1,574 4,372 1,509 1,634
EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 8,501 4,477 6,126 7,256
EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 9,214 5,607 6,885 8,053
Interest 392 306 370 400
Gross Profit 8,822 5,300 6,515 7,653
Depreciation 1,430 1,409 1,682 1,832
Profit Before Tax & EO Items 7,392 3,891 4,832 5,820
Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) 8 0 0
Profit Before Tax 7,399 3,891 4,832 5,820
Tax 2,406 1,346 1,595 1,921
Net Profit 4,994 2,545 3,238 3,900
BALANCE SHEET
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Sources of FundsEquity Capital 797 797 797 797
Preference Capital
Share Premium 3,052 3,052 3,052 3,052
Other Reserves 15,465 17,561 20,350 23,800
Net Worth 19,315 21,410 24,199 27,650
Revaluation reserve
Secured Loans 1,548 1,958 2,139
Unsecured Loans 1,692 2,900 3,100
Loan Funds 3,240 6,876 4,858 5,239
Deferred Tax Liability 1,716 1,497 2,000 2,000
Total Capital Employed 24,271 29,783 31,057 34,889
Applications of Funds
Gross Block 32,153 34,269 36,653 39,403
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 20,130 21,667 23,349 25,182
Net Block 12,023 12,602 13,304 14,222
Capital Work in Progress 509 100 100
Investments 6,061 4,250 2,041 2,041
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 7,456 6,111 6,529 7,022
Sundry Debtors 4,807 6,216 5,441 7,265
Cash and Bank Balance 381 601 9,382 10,992
Loans and Advances 1,987 8,109 2,525 2,600
Other Current Assets 0 0 0
sub total 14,631 21,037 23,877 27,879
Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions
Current Liabilities 4,690 4,217 4,678 4,912
Provisions 4,264 3,889 3,587 4,441
sub total 8,954 8,106 8,265 9,353
Net Current Assets 5,677 12,931 15,612 18,526
Misc Expenses
Total Assets 24,271 29,783 31,057 34,889
CASH FLOW
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 7,399 3,891 4,832 5,820
Depreciation & w.o. 1,429 1,409 1,682 1,832
Net Interest Exp 392 306 370 400
Direct taxes paid (2,442) (1,346) (1,595) (1,921)
Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) 1,035 (7,033) 6,099 (1,304)
Other 467
(A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 8,280 (2,773) 11,389 4,828
Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (1,291) (1,607) (2,484) (2,750)
Free Cash Flow 6,989 (4,380) 8,905 2,078
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (4,435) 1,811 2,209 0
Other 199
(B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (5,527) 205 (275) (2,750)
Issue of Equity/ Preference 0 0 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (2,348) 3,636 (2,018) 382
Interest exp net (428) (306) (370) (400)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (356) (449) (449) (449)
Other (61)(C) Cash Flow from Financing (3,192) 2,881 (2,837) (468)
Net Change in Cash (439) 312 8,277 1,610
Opening Cash balances 820 381 601 9,382
Closing Cash balances 381 601 9,382 10,992
E-estimates
IMPORTANT RATIOS
Particulars Mar09 Mar10E Mar11E Mar12E
(A) Measures of Performance (%)
Contribution Margin
EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 14.5 11.1 15.4 16.4
EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 15.5 13.6 17.0 17.9
Interest / Sales 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
Gross Profit Margin 14.8 12.8 16.1 17.0
Tax/PBT 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0Net Profit Margin 8.4 6.2 8.0 8.7
(B) As Percentage of Net Sales
Raw Material 64.9 63.3 59.6 58.2
Employee Expenses 6.6 7.2 6.6 6.9
Power, Oil & Fuel 5.2 7.5 7.4 7.5
Selling & Administrative Expenses 6.1 0.0 7.2 7.2
Provisions & Write Offs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Expenses 2.7 10.9 3.8 3.7
(C) Measures of Financial Status
Debt / Equity (x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Interest Coverage (x) 23.5 18.3 18.6 20.1
Average Cost Of Debt (%) 8.9 6.1 6.3 7.9
Debtors Period (days) 29.8 57.6 50.0 60.0
Closing stock (days) 46.3 59.6 60.0 58.0
Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 7.9 6.6 6.1 6.3
Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1
Working Capital Turnover (x) 10.4 3.1 2.5 2.4
Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) 5,296.1 12,329.4 6,230.1 7,534.4
(D) Measures of Investment
EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 62.8 31.9 40.6 48.9
EPS (Rs.) 62.7 31.9 40.6 48.9
CEPS (Rs.) 80.6 49.6 61.7 71.9
DPS (Rs.) 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
Dividend Payout (%) 7.2 15.7 12.3 10.2
Profit Ploughback (%) 92.8 84.3 87.7 89.8
Book Value (Rs.) 242.4 268.7 303.6 346.9
RoANW (%) 29.3 12.5 14.2 15.0
RoACE (%) 33.0 15.5 17.1 18.9
RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 33.8 15.8 20.5 27.3
(E) Valuation Ratios
CMP (Rs.) 259.0 259.0 259.0 259.0P/E (x) 4.1 8.1 6.4 5.3
Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 20,641.1 20,641.1 20,641.1 20,641.1
MCap/ Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV (Rs. Mn.) 23,499.7 26,915.7 16,117.0 14,888.4
EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3
EV/EBDITA (x) 2.8 6.0 2.6 2.1
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7
Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9
E-estimates
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BSE Sensex 17,503
NSE Nifty 5249
Scrip Details
Equity Rs.280.3mn
Face Value Rs.2/-
Market Cap Rs.65.3bn
US$1404.5mn
52 week High/Low Rs.377.40 / 133.65
1-Month Avg. Volume 128856
BSE Code 506385
NSE Symbol COROMANDEL
Bloomberg Code CRIN IN
Reuters Code CORF.BO
Business Group - Murugappa Group
Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)
Promoter 64.34
FIIs 3.55MF/Banks/FIs 10.45
Public / Others 21.66
Fertile Connections...!!!CIL, a Murugappa Group company, is a leading manufacturer of a wide range of Farm inputs and is the second
largest manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers. The company is diversifying its revenue base towards the non-
subsidy farm business by entering into high margin products like specialty nutrients and pesticides. Its presencein niche areas of complex fertilizers and assured supply of key raw materials places it in an advantageous
position. CIL has also forayed into increasing its reach through aggressive initiatives on the rural areas . At
CMP of Rs 466, CFL trades at a P/E of 12x FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a price target of Rs
561 (15x FY11E EPS).
Coromandel International (CIL)
CMP: Rs 466
Target Price: Rs 561 Fertilizer / Accumulate
Investment Rationale
Revised policy to benefit complex fertilizer manufacturers
Coromandel fertilizer stands to differentiate itself from other fertilizer players by
catering to the non-nitrogenous fertilizer segment where demand growth is higher
and government regulatory control is lower verses urea. Further, the latest
government policy has brought all the subsidized prices of NPK at a fixed level,thereby encouraging farmers to ensure balanced consumption of nutrients. This
would help boost use of non-urea fertilizers.
Established raw material linkages
CILs strategic tie-ups with companies in South Africa and Tunisia shall ensure
availability of key raw materials including rock, sulphur and phosphoric acid. CIL
JV TIFERT will commence its production in 4QFY11, ensuring 0.18 Mn tpa of
secured phosphoric acid supplies. The company is also spreading its wing to
West Asia and is in talks to set-up an urea and ammonia manufacturing plant in
gas rich countries
Leveraging its strong Brand EquityCIL has a strong hold in the southern market and is trying to leverage it by focusing
on brand building and expanding its retail reach. It has increased its retail network
from 20 centers last year to 400 centres. These centers would focus on marketing
of farm inputs. These initiatives may drag the return ratios in near term; however
long term these shall help deliver strong operating performance
Focus on high margin business
In order to diversify, CFL also plans to focus on high margin segments of pesticides
and specialty nutrients like water soluble fertilizers and micro-nutrients. CFL has
entered into a JV with SQM, Chile, for manufacturing water soluble fertilizers at
Kakinada, AP which would be operational from 3QFY11
ValuationThere has been an increased impetus to complex fertilizer manufacturers by way
of policy amendment along with better visibility of raw material supplies.
Furthermore focus on higher margin non fertilizer businesses enable the company
to reduce vulnerability to controlled sector exposure. CIL has been a consistent
dividend paying company with a dividend yield of 3% in FY10. At CMP of Rs 466,
CFL trades at a P/E of 12x FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a
price target of Rs 561 (15x FY11E EPS).Financials
Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)
FY09 93,750 149.5 6,521 7.0 4,009 5.8 28.7 90.8 16.3 12.1 55.7 32.2
FY10P 63,947 (31.8) 7,100 11.1 4,677 7.2 33.4 16.4 14.0 10.2 32.7 25.2
FY11E 68,331 6.9 8,123 11.9 5,248 7.6 37.4 12.2 12.4 7.7 27.6 27.5
FY12E 83,986 22.9 10,426 12.4 6,576 7.8 46.9 25.3 9.9 5.5 26.6 32.6
Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.
CIL relative to Sensex
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Company Background:
Coromandel International Ltd (CIL), a Muruguppa group company, is the leading manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers.EID
Parry holds 62.8% in CIL. The fertilizer plants are located at Vishakapatnam and Kakinada in AP, Ennore and Ranipet in
Tamil Nadu. It has a combined capacity of 2.3 million tonnes of complex Fertilizers.
CIL currently drives its major revenues from the own manufactured fertilizer and traded goods. This revenue stream shall
diversify with increasing contribution from plant protection and specialty nutrients segments from the current 10% of
revenue to 25% over 3 years time frame. CILs strong distribution reach across states like Andhra Pradesh (425 outlets)
and southern states at large shall be the key to these plans.
Manufacturing process of DAP:
Location CapacitiesKakinada & Vishakapatnam in AP DAP/Complex Fertilizer-22 Lakh tpa
Ennore & Ranipet in TN SSP -1.32 Lakh Tonnes
Ranipet,TN,Jammu,Maharashtra Plant Protection Capacity
Technicals-14580 Mt
Formulations-10900 KL
Others-5600
Right tie-ups:
CIL has scored on its prudent tie-ups:
Strategic Moves Objective
1 Acquisition in EID Parry Broaden Product Portfoilo
2 Acquisition in Godavari fertilizer & Chemicals Braodening its base and giving bargaining power
3 CIL 15% stake in FOSKOR Ensure raw-material availability
4 CIL acquired 50.7% of equity in FICOM Increase its Pesticides exposure
5 CIL and GSFC JV with GCT Tunisia with CIL share of 0.18 mn mt Increase raw-material availability
6 Acquires Pasura Biotech Increase its reach in Pesticides segment
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INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Net Sales 93,750 63,947 68,331 83,986
Other income 2,066 1,362 752 500
Total Income 95,816 65,309 69,083 84,486
Total Expenditure 87,229 56,847 60,208 73,560
Raw Material 80,212 48,593 52,111 64,352
Employee Expenses 1,335 1,674 1,811 2,402
Power, Oil & Fuel 630 1,367 1,512Selling & Administrative Expenses 2,128 2,850 3,100
Provisions & Write Offs 1,335 102 70
Other Expenses 1,588 6,580 1,968 2,124
EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 6,521 7,100 8,123 10,426
EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 8,587 8,462 8,875 10,926
Interest 876 782 399 420
Gross Profit 7,711 7,680 8,476 10,506
Depreciation 562 594 643 691
Profit Before Tax & EO Items 7,149 7,086 7,833 9,815
Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) (1,586)
Profit Before Tax 8,735 7,086 7,833 9,815
Tax 3,140 2,409 2,585 3,239
Net Profit 5,595 4,677 5,248 6,576
BALANCE SHEET
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 280 280 280 280
Preference Capital
Share Premium 601 601 601 601
Other Reserves 11,239 15,588 20,678 27,096
Net Worth 12,120 16,469 21,559 27,977
Revaluation reserve
Secured Loans 3,478 5,300 3,300 3,500
Unsecured Loans 14,230 9,200 2,400 2,500
Loan Funds 17,708 14,500 5,700 6,000
Deferred Tax Liability 795 795 795 795
Total Capital Employed 30,622 31,764 28,054 34,772
Applications of Funds
Gross Block 12,101 12,401 13,401 14,401
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 4,414 5,008 5,651 6,342
Net Block 7,688 7,394 7,751 8,059
Capital Work in Progress 278 150 150 150
Investments 2,208 3,500 3,500 3,500
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 13,475 8,410 11,607 13,346
Sundry Debtors 1,015 701 936 1,150
Cash and Bank Balance 4,253 7,046 8,774 14,484
Loans and Advances 10,528 7,896 6,711 6,846
Other Current Assets 8,803 8,000
sub total 38,074 32,052 28,028 35,826
Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions
Current Liabilities 16,384 10,215 9,698 11,054
Provisions 1,242 1,118 1,677 1,710
sub total 17,626 11,333 11,375 12,764
Net Current Assets 20,448 20,720 16,653 23,062
Misc Expenses
Total Assets 30,622 31,764 28,054 34,772
CASH FLOW
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 8,735 7,086 7,833 9,815
Depreciation & w.o. 562 594 643 691
Net Interest Exp 1,534 782 399 420
Direct taxes paid (3,238) (2,409) (2,585) (3,239)
Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) (7,392) 2,521 5,794 (699)
Other (43)
(A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 159 8,574 12,084 6,988
Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (1,161) (172) (1,000) (1,000)
Free Cash Flow (1,002) 8,402 11,084 5,988
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (1,740) (1,292) 0 0
Other 1,241
(B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (1,661) (1,464) (1,000) (1,000)
Issue of Equity/ Preference 0 1 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (971) (3,208) (8,800) 300
Interest exp net (870) (782) (399) (420)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (1,529) (328) (158) (158)
Other 8,052
(C) Cash Flow from Financing 4,683 (4,317) (9,357) (278)
Net Change in Cash 3,181 2,793 1,727 5,710
Opening Cash balances 1,072 4,253 7,046 8,774
Closing Cash balances 4,253 7,046 8,774 14,484
E-estimates
IMPORTANT RATIOS
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
(A) Measures of Performance (%)
Contribution Margin
EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 7.0 11.1 11.9 12.4
EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 9.0 13.0 12.8 12.9
Interest / Sales 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.5
Gross Profit Margin 8.0 11.8 12.3 12.4
Tax/PBT 35.9 33.0 33.0 33.0Net Profit Margin 5.8 7.2 7.6 7.8
(B) As Percentage of Net Sales
Raw Material 85.6 76.0 76.3 76.6
Employee Expenses 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.9
Power, Oil & Fuel 0.7 0.0 2.0 1.8
Selling & Administrative Expenses 2.3 0.0 4.2 3.7
Provisions & Write Offs 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.1
Other Expenses 1.7 10.3 2.9 3.1
(C) Measures of Financial Status
Debt / Equity (x) 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.2
Interest Coverage (x) 9.8 10.8 22.2 26.0
Average Cost Of Debt (%) 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.0
Debtors Period (days) 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
Closing stock (days) 52.5 48.0 62.0 58.0
Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 7.0 7.6 5.9 6.3Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 7.7 5.2 5.1 5.8
Working Capital Turnover (x) 4.6 3.1 4.1 3.6
Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) 16,194.9 13,673.5 7,879.5 8,578.3
(D) Measures of Investment
EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 28.7 33.4 37.4 46.9
EPS (Rs.) 40.0 33.4 37.4 46.9
CEPS (Rs.) 44.0 37.6 42.0 51.9
DPS (Rs.) 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0
Dividend Payout (%) 25.0 30.0 13.4 10.7
Profit Ploughback (%) 75.0 70.0 86.6 89.3
Book Value (Rs.) 86.6 117.5 153.8 199.6
RoANW (%) 55.7 32.7 27.6 26.6
RoACE (%) 32.2 25.2 27.5 32.6
RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 36.1 30.8 37.4 51.7
(E) Valuation RatiosCMP (Rs.) 466.0 466.0 466.0 466.0
P/E (x) 11.7 14.0 12.4 9.9
Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 65,192.0 65,309.9 65,309.9 65,309.9
MCap/ Sales (x) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8
EV (Rs. Mn.) 78,647.0 72,763.7 62,236.3 56,825.9
EV/Sales (x) 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7
EV/EBDITA (x) 12.1 10.2 7.7 5.5
P/BV (x) 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.3
Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.1
E-estimates
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BSE Sensex 17,503
NSE Nifty 5249
Scrip Details
Equity Rs.4162.1mn
Face Value Rs.10/-
Market Cap Rs.23.5 bn
US$510.3mn
52 week High/Low Rs.75.60 / 40.10
1-Month Avg. Volume 2703164
BSE Code 500085
NSE Symbol CHAMBLFERT
Bloomberg Code CHMB IN
Reuters Code CHMB.BO
Business Group - Birla KK
Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)
Promoter 53.24FIIs 7.82
MF/Banks/FIs 11.18
Public / Others 27.76
Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals
CMP: Rs 65
Target Price: Rs 66 Fertilizer / Reduce
Investment Rationale
Better Economics to creep in
CFCL undertook de-bottlenecking of both its plants at Gadepan, Rajasthan in
April 2009. This led to an enhancement in production capacity by 20% to 2.1 mn
MT. This enhanced capacity shall also help CFCL qualify for 85% of IPP of Urea,
with a floor and ceiling price of USD 250-450 per tonne. The impact of this enhancedcapacity and the therein policy benefit is yet to be reflected in the bottom-line. Our
initial calculation suggests that the company has captured only part of the gain on
account of this policy and the ramp up to full capacity will be delivered in FY11.
For our projection of FY11 & FY12, we are assuming volumes to increase to 2.4
mn MT and 2.5 mn MT
Operating Efficacy
The company has aggressively focused on managing its costs inputs, especially
the power costs, in line with GoI policy on switching the operations to gas based
plant. The reductions on this front have led to energy consumption declining by
0.2 Gcal per MT of Urea .The companys energy and feedstock cost for FY10 is
Rs.19Bn, we expect energy efficiency initiative will lead to savings of 3% andwould lead to improvement in EBIDTA margins
Road towards decontrol
CFCL, being one of the largest private players in the Urea segment, shall be the
biggest beneficiary of deregulation of the segment. The Government has recently
announced 10% increase in price of Urea to Rs.5310 a tonne, which shall benefit
the company to the extent of easing working capital flow in terms of lower
dependence on subsidy to that extent. The more beneficial component of the
deregulation shall lie in a favorable policy in relation to investment in Greenfield
Projects and further decontrol in prices of Urea.
Optimum Capacity Utilization
CFCL has over the years achieved capacity utilization over 100%. Also, given theeffectiveness of Urea as a fertilizer, the long term demand is sustainable. With
the increased gas supply of 1.1 mmscmd and additional capacity, we expect an
increase in volume from 1.9MT as on March 2009 to 2.4MT in FY11E
ValuationBeing a significant player in the Urea segment, any positive trigger in form of
positive investment policy announcement or revision in floor and ceiling prices
will make the stock attractive. However, at CMP of Rs.65, the stock trades at
10.8 FY11E EPS and is fairly valued and hence we initiate coverage with a reduce
recommendation.Financials
Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)
FY09 55,974 74.6 6,653 11.9 2,256 4.0 5.2 31.9 12.0 7.2 18.4 12.2
FY10P 41,487 (25.9) 6,802 16.4 2,172 5.2 5.2 (1.4) 12.4 7.2 16.1 9.6
FY11E 43,435 4.7 7,548 17.4 2,505 5.7 6.0 16.8 10.8 5.9 16.8 10.6
FY12E 45,813 5.5 8,327 18.2 2,960 6.4 7.1 18.1 9.1 4.7 17.7 12.1
Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.
All eyes on Policy...!!!
Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals (CFCL), being one of the largest private player in Urea, is set to benefit from
likely policy initiatives under NPS-4. The ongoing efforts to increase production capacity coupled with focus on
cost of critical inputs like power (energy) would benefit at the level of operating margin. Also, linking of additional
production to IPP over and above the cut-off limit would be visible at the top-line level. With the revival of
economy, the other business divisions viz., textile and shipping revenues are also in a better position verses
last year. However at CMP of Rs.65 the stock trades at 10x FY11E earnings and is fairly valued and hence we
initiate coverage with a reduce recommendation.
CFL relative to Sensex
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
CFL Sensex
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Company Profile
CFCL is one of the largest players in Urea, with a market share of 10% of the domestic Urea capacity. It has its production
facilities in Gadepan Rajasthan of 2 million tones. CFCL has been allocated 1.1 mmscmd of gas from KG basin in the
first phase. Both of its plants are gas based plants and are along the HBJ gas pipeline. The company also has strong
rural distribution network.
Own manufactured fertilizer & Traded Fertilizer:
CFCL mainly derives its revenue from the fertilizer segment. They source their key raw-material i.e. gas through GAIL,
IOC, RLNG, KG basin and APM. Currently they receive 3.3 mmscmd of gas. They utilize their strong distribution network
for traded activities and trade in agro-chemicals, specialty fertilizers, pesticides and micro-nutrients.
Shipping Segment
CFCL is also present in Shipping, mainly with a perspective of focusing on the transportation of crude. In order to support
this business further, the company has added one more Aframax vessel in end of FY10 to the already existing fleet size
of 5 ships. This would increase contribution to topline in FY11.
The shipping segment amounted for approximately 7% of the total consolidated revenue in FY10.
Others
CFCL has also entered into textiles, food processing and IT segments. However, contribution from this segment to
revenues is insignificant.
Location Capacities
Gadepan,Rajasthan Urea- 17.3 Lakhs tpa
Subsidiaries and Joint-Ventures
Subsidiaries Objective to set up
CFCL Infrastructure Ventures Ltd Development of Power Projects
CFCL Overseas Ltd,cayman Islands For consolidation of its software business
India Steamship Pte Ltd,Singapore Tap opportu nit ies in Shipping segment
Strategic Stake in IMACID:
In order to ensure the supply of scarce raw-material i.e phosphoric acid in India, CFCL has entered into strategic tie-up
with IMACID Morocco. CFCL holds 33% stake, other investors with equal stake are Tata Chemicals and Office Cherifien
Des Phosphates (OCP), Morocco.
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INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Net Sales 55,974 41,487 43,435 45,813
Other income 738 462 432 497
Total Income 56,712 41,949 43,867 46,309
Total Expenditure 49,321 34,685 35,887 37,486
Raw Material 30,731 19,754 20,092 20,929
Employee Expenses 1,934 1,991 2,042 2,154
Power, Oil & Fuel 8,123 5,697 5,953 6,326Selling & Administrative Expenses 2,544 2,803 2,908
Provisions & Write Offs 455 109 115
Other Expenses 5,533 7,243 4,888 5,055
EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 6,653 6,802 7,548 8,327
EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 7,391 7,264 7,980 8,824
Interest 1,386 888 1,279 1,333
Gross Profit 6,005 6,376 6,701 7,491
Depreciation 2,817 3,189 3,359 3,405
Profit Before Tax & EO Items 3,189 3,187 3,341 4,086
Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) (82) (28)
Profit Before Tax 3,270 3,215 3,341 4,086
Tax 1,027 1,142 936 1,226
Net Profit 2,243 2,073 2,406 2,860
Minority Interest 13 99 99 99
Net Profit 2,256 2,172 2,505 2,960
BALANCE SHEET
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Sources of Funds
Equity Capital 4,162 4,162 4,162 4,162
Preference Capital 26
Share Premium 1,162 1,162 1,162 1,162
Other Reserves 7,495 8,776 10,343 12,364
Net Worth 12,845 14,100 15,667 17,689
Revaluation reserve
Secured Loans 20,946 23,040 20,736 21,773
Unsecured Loans 4,092 3,274 3,437 3,609
Loan Funds 25,038 26,314 24,174 25,382
Deferred Tax Liability 3,281 3,281 3,281 3,281
Total Capital Employed 41,164 43,695 43,122 46,352
Applications of Funds
Gross Block 51,019 54,019 54,819 54,919
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 21,364 24,553 27,912 31,317
Net Block 29,656 29,466 26,907 23,602
Capital Work in Progress 2,247 1,247 447 0
Investments 3,193 500 500 500
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories 3,791 3,978 4,165 4,393
Sundry Debtors 6,880 4,547 4,760 5,021
Cash and Bank Balance 4,321 4,509 6,930 13,563
Loans and Advances 2,400 1,680 1,764 1,852
Other Current Assets 3,683 3,500 3,500 3,500
sub total 21,074 18,214 21,119 28,329
Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions
Current Liabilities 15,851 4,330 4,404 4,587
Provisions 1,288 1,402 1,447 1,492
sub total 17,139 5,732 5,851 6,079
Net Current Assets 3,935 12,482 15,268 22,250
Misc Expenses 17
Total Assets 41,164 43,695 43,122 46,352
CASH FLOW
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 3,270 3,187 3,341 4,086
Depreciation & w.o. 2,817 3,189 3,359 3,405
Net Interest Exp 801 888 1,279 1,333
Direct taxes paid (1,357) (1,142) (936) (1,226)
Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) 5,105 (8,359) (365) (348)
Other 1,578 2,261 99 99
(A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 12,214 25 6,778 7,349
Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (10,630) (2,000) 0 347
Free Cash Flow 1,584 (1,975) 6,778 7,695
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (3,032) 2,693 0 0
Other (372)
(B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (14,034) 693 0 347
Issue of Equity/ Preference 6 (26) 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 5,746 1,276 (2,140) 1,209
Interest exp net (1,238) (888) (1,279) (1,333)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (743) (891) (938) (938)
Other (127)
(C) Cash Flow from Financing 3,644 (530) (4,357) (1,062)
Net Change in Cash 1,824 188 2,421 6,633
Opening Cash balances 1,447 4,321 4,509 6,930
Closing Cash balances 3,271 4,509 6,930 13,563
E-estimates
IMPORTANT RATIOS
Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E
(A) Measures of Performance (%)
Contribution Margin
EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 11.9 16.4 17.4 18.2
EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 13.0 17.3 18.2 19.1
Interest / Sales 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.9
Gross Profit Margin 10.6 15.2 15.3 16.2
Tax/PBT 31.4 35.5 28.0 30.0Net Profit Margin 4.0 5.2 5.7 6.4
(B) As Percentage of Net Sales
Raw Material 54.9 47.6 46.3 45.7
Employee Expenses 3.5 4.8 4.7 4.7
Power, Oil & Fuel 14.5 13.7 13.7 13.8
Selling & Administrative Expenses 4.5 0.0 6.5 6.3
Provisions & Write Offs 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3
Other Expenses 9.9 17.5 11.3 11.0
(C) Measures of Financial Status
Debt / Equity (x) 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4
Interest Coverage (x) 5.3 8.2 6.2 6.6
Average Cost Of Debt (%) 6.4 3.5 5.1 5.4
Debtors Period (days) 44.9 40.0 40.0 40.0
Closing stock (days) 24.7 35.0 35.0 35.0
Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 14.8 10.4 10.4 10.4
Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8
Working Capital Turnover (x) 14.2 3.3 2.8 2.1
Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) (385.6) 7,973.0 8,338.4 8,686.7
(D) Measures of Investment
EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 5.2 5.2 6.0 7.1
EPS (Rs.) 5.4 5.2 6.0 7.1
CEPS (Rs.) 12.2 12.9 14.1 15.3
DPS (Rs.) 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Dividend Payout (%) 33.2 36.4 33.2 28.1
Profit Ploughback (%) 66.8 63.6 66.8 71.9
Book Value (Rs.) 30.9 33.9 37.6 42.5
RoANW (%) 18.4 16.1 16.8 17.7
RoACE (%) 12.2 9.6 10.6 12.1
RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 13.2 10.7 12.3 15.0
(E) Valuation Ratios
CMP (Rs.) 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9P/E (x) 12.0 12.4 10.8 9.1
Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 26,991.1 26,991.1 26,991.1 26,991.1
MCap/ Sales (x) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6
EV (Rs. Mn.) 47,708.1 48,795.9 44,234.9 38,810.2
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8
EV/EBDITA (x) 7.2 7.2 5.9 4.7
P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1
E-estimates
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Annexure
Fertilizer Industry: At a glance..!
Fertilizer Next to water for Indian agriculture
Agricultural sector is the foundation of the rural Indian economy around which socio-economic privileges and hardshipsrevolve, and any change in its structure draws a corresponding impact on the existing pattern of social equality. Fertilizer
being the key efficiency booster in the entire production process occupies a center stage in rural economy. It is so
significant that even the Indian National political scenario gets influenced by any amendments in the Fertilizer Policy.
The Efforts.The Result
Government of India since independence has been striving hard to maintain this socio-economic status. Green Revolution
adopted by India in 1965 was a right step towards achieving self sufficiency. However, with passage of time and lack of
awareness among farmer communities, this movement has not progressed much and has led to biggest threat of Food
Security and Soil Degradation. We can see that there has been a gradual fall in the crops response to fertilizer from the
5th Plan to the 11th Plan.
Declining crop response to FertilizerPeriod Kg foodgrains per kg nutrients(NPK)
5th Plan (1974-79) 15.0
8th Plan (1992-97) 7.5
9th Plan (1997-02) 7.0
10th Plan(2002-07) 6.5
11th Plan(2007-12) 6.0
Source: Dr.R.K.Tewatia - Emerging as pects of balanced fertilizer use in India
In an attempt to enhance agricultural productivity, fertilizer intake gained importance. Government of India (GOI) introduced
subsidies to fertilizer companies with an aim to make it affordable to the farmers. Though the policies were revised at
regular intervals, prices of key fertilizers remained stagnant since 2002 as any increase in the same led to huge agitations.With severe government control and regulations, it proved to be feeble framework. There was virtually no capacity
addition since 2002 and dependence on import increased. It is clearly visible from the graph, wherein the production
remained stagnant leading to incremental demand being met through imports which grew 5 times to 16.2 Mn Tonne.
Over time the cost of subsidy started weighing heavily on Indias fiscal balance. Indias position in world trade weakened
and currently India is worlds largest importer of Urea fertilizer. Increase in crude oil prices resulted in volatility in fertilizer
prices leading to rising import bills which put India in an economic imbroglio. Fertilizer subsidy in India has grown at a
CAGR of 48.03% since FY03.
Fertilizer Subsidy: Weighing Heavily on India Fiscal Balance Fertilizer Industry: Worsening Margins
*Aggregate of Coromandel, RCF, GSFC, ChambalSource: http://indiabudget.nic.in
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The Ultimate Objective
Subsidies directly to the farmers: To entrench the benefit of the subsidies to the actual user of the fertilizers, GOI
plans to directly disseminate it at the ground level. Tools like Unique identification project and kisan credit cards
can prove to be handy. However, it still remains a far-fetched idea till proper mechanism is in place to reach out
to lakh of farmers.
Adopted by other countries: Internationally too countries have adopted voucher system and have found it to be a
great success. A case in example is of states of Kano and Tarba in Nigeria which have turned out to be net grain
exporter from a 4 year long famine state.
a. They identified the reason for effect on productivity was due to problems associated with government policies
rather than from lack of farmers awareness
b. They introduced voucher system wherein the goal was to devise a sustainable Targeted Input Marketing
System (TIMS) that will ensure efficient, cost effective and expedient subsidies to targeted farmers
c. Steps undertaken by the government were to develop a private sector fertilizer distribution system which will
allow the government to exit from fertilizer supply chain.
d. Voucher a discount coupon was handed to the farmers to be used to make payments to specified dealerswho could thereby redeem it against an agreed margins
e. Built in the system is a targeting mechanisms, a subsidy mechanism, as well as a voucher redemption
system with built - in safe guards against fraud which include the use of picture and thumbprint of the farmer
groups representatives.
f. Upon completing the voucher distribution in Kano, part of the success recorded is that targeted farmers
(many of them for the first time) are receiving government subsidy in a transparent and cost effective manner.
An effective chain for fertilizer distribution has been established between the major fertilizer companies and
retailers in all local government areas of the state. Agro dealers have been brought to the limelight by
enabling them to participate actively in their businesses.
g. Stunning developments in these states have set an example for others to emulate fertilizer voucher scheme.
What does it mean to fertilizer Companies in India?
Fertilizer sector in India is witnessing a gradual move from the clutches of Government. The recent policy announcements
are the need of the hour for increasing the competitiveness among the producers and attracting investments to enhance
the capacity.
Source : Dolat Research
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BUY Upside above 20%
ACCUMULATE Upside above 5% and up to 20%
REDUCE Upside up to 5%
SELL Negative Returns
DolaDolaDolaDolaDolatttttCapital Market Pvt. Ltd.20 R j b h d M i 1 Fl A b l l D hi M F M b i 400 001
Sector / Tel. No.
Principal
Purvag Shah
[email protected] +9122 4096 9747
Amit Khurana, CFA Head of [email protected] +9122 4096 9745
Senior Analysts
Bhavin Shah Pharma & Agro Chem
[email protected] +9122 4096 9731
Jyoti Khatri Banking
[email protected] +9122 4096 9753
Priyank Chandra Oil & Gas
[email protected] +9122 4096 9737
Rahul Jain IT
[email protected] +9122 4096 9754
Ram Modi Metals & Mining
[email protected] +9122 4096 9756Sameer Panke Construction & Infrastructure
[email protected] +9122 4096 9757
Analysts
Ankit Babel Engineering, Textile
[email protected] +9122 4096 9732
Gracy Mittal Utilities
[email protected] +9122 4096 9722
Jaynee Shah Financials
[email protected] +9122 4096 9723
Kapil Yadav Logistics, Maritime & Rail
[email protected] +9122 4096 9735
Namrata Sharma Media, FMCG & [email protected] +9122 4096 9726
Neha Sarwal Agro Chem & Fertiliser
[email protected] +9122 4096 9740
Associate
Rohit Natarajan Construction & Infrastructure
[email protected] +9122 4096 9751
Support Staff
Paresh Girkar +9122 4096 9742
Rajesh Shinde +9122 4096 9743
Tel. No.
Mayur Shah +9122 4096 9796
R. Sriram +9122 4096 9706
Vikram Babulkar +9122 4096 [email protected]
Equity Sales [email protected] +9122 4096 9797
Chandrakant Ware +9122 4096 9707
Jignesh Shahukar +9122 4096 9727
P. Sridhar +9122 4096 9728
Parthiv Dalal +9122 4096 9705
Derivatives Team
Vijay Kanchan +9122 4096 9704
Derivatives Sales Traders
Chirag Makati +9122 4096 9702-03
Mihir Thakar +9122 4096 9701
Quantitative Research
Prachi Save Derivatives Research
[email protected] +9122 4096 9733
Bloomberg Id
Board Lines +9122 4096 9700+9122 2265 9200
Fax Lines +9122 2265 0410+9122 2265 1278
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