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Fertilizer Industry Jun10

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    India

    Research

    1 July 2010

    DOLATCAPITAL

    Sector

    Note

    Analyst : Neha SarwalTel : +9122 4096 9740E-mail: [email protected]

    Fertilizer Sector Report

    Sowing the seeds of Change...!!!

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    Sowing the seeds of Change...!!!

    We expect the sector to continue to gradually re-rate with pro active and favorable policy initiatives. With the

    step forward on complex fertilizer already in place, we hope that the government would follow through with

    similar steps on the urea segment.

    We believe companies with strong raw-material tie-ups, plans for expansion and offering customized products

    would lead to higher volume growth. We therefore prefer stock specific approach .We are positive on Coromandel

    International (CIL) due to its strong business model and GSFC- beneficiary of NBS policy and high earnings

    visibility.

    Relooking the Fertilizer Sector:The latest Government Policy on Fertilizer Pricing and Subsidy is encouraging and a welcome step in the direction of de-

    regulation of the industry.

    We have identified the following drivers for industry that would act as a game changer and would make the sector

    attractive for the future growth potential which till now witnessed restricted growth due to its controlled regime.

    Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) Raw-Material Sourcing

    New Investment Policy-4 (NPS-4)

    Positive on Complex FertilizerThe shift in policy regime from product based subsidy to nutrient based subsidy opens a plethora of opportunities for

    complex players. This change would encourage use of right nutrients as per requirement of soil, thus limiting the excess

    use of highly subsidized nutrient which has resulted in soil degradation and effected productivity (annexure). With this

    new policy, players with established raw-material linkages and offering customized products would enjoy an edge over

    the other players. This in turn shall benefit players like Coromandel International as they have build up strategic tie-ups

    and strong marketing and distribution networks.

    The Nutrient Based Subsidy has also introduced a fixed subsidy regime and has left the market price floating in accordancewith the demand and supply situation with a possibility of intervention by Government if the prices rise unreasonably. This

    has already led to an increase in prices of DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate) and MOP (Muriate of Potash) by Rs. 600 per

    tonne i.e. 6.4% and 13.5% respectively. This would result in efficient players being rewarded over their counterparts.

    The sourcing of raw material is the key to enjoy the fruit of efficiency as it is the most critical factor determining sustainability

    of business. We believe that this is the key area where Coromandel shall perform better than its peers. Its tie-up with

    Foskor and Tunisian Joint Venture with GSFC would lead to additional flow of phosphoric acid which would in turn lead

    to production growth of 18% and 11% in FY11 and FY12. GSFC will also get access to the additional raw-material and

    would lead to production of customized complex fertilizers.

    We remain positive on the complex fertilizer space and we recommend an accumulate on Coromandel International

    Fertilizer and a buy on GSFC.

    Urea opportunities aheadSimilar to the policy pronouncements for the complex fertilizers, we expect the New Investment Policy IV to address the

    key issues for the urea segment as well. The key focus shall be to reduce the dependency on imports and encourage

    capacity expansion in India. The current urea capacity at 20 Mn MT has been stagnant for over a decade now.

    We also observe that the expected policy is part of the ongoing series of steps that the government has been taking to

    move towards deregulation of the sector. The first leg of this has been witnessed with gas replacing all other high cost

    and unviable feedstocks. Further, the linking of additional production through Greenfield/Brownfield /Revamping to

    International Parity Pricing (IPP) has brought in the much needed impetus required to attract investments. NPS-III was in

    effect till 31st March, 2010.We believe ,the NPS-IV which is just around the corner shall continue with the pro active

    mode and attract capacity expansion. One of the provisions that would be looked into keenly would be revising the floor

    price which currently is fixed at US $ 250 per tonne.With the above backdrop, we believe Chambal will stand to benefit as it has recently commenced its brownfield expansion

    which will make any additional production over and above the cut-off limit qualify for IPP. We assume the volumes to

    increase from 1.9 MT to 2.1 in FY10 and 2.4MT in FY11E.However,we recommend a reduce on the stock as it is fairly

    priced and trades at 10.8x FY11E EPS.

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    Corrective stepGovernment of India has been introducing corrective measures in phases. Recent volatility in fertilizer price scenario has

    led to the formation of New Policy reducing government control. The Policies introduced recently have led to partial

    decontrol and is gradually shifting the focus from Government as a Regulator to it acting as an Enabler.

    Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) PolicyThe main objective of nutrient based subsidy (NBS) is to encourage balanced use of fertilizer. In the current framework,

    consumption is skewed towards Urea and subsidy is floating and disbursed according to the final product. But with

    change in policy subsidy would be based on per nutrient consumption thereby ensuring proper intake of nutrient as per

    the soil requirement. This would result into higher productivity. Also the subsidy allocation has been capped by the GOI

    leaving the MRP floating for the non-Urea companies. This would ensure efficient player to be awarded for its efficiency.

    The ultimate goal would be to introduce a mechanism to directly provide subsidy to end users. However, that has a long

    way to go. Nevertheless, the recent policy announcements are the need of the hour for increasing the competitiveness

    among the producers and attracting investments to enhance the capacity. The below table reflects the effect of balanced

    use of fertilizers.

    Importance of Balanced (NPK) Fertilization of Crops in India

    % increase due toCrop Group No.of Trials Control(kg/ha) N NP NPK

    Cereals 2997 1803 46.8 74.3 96.3

    Oilseeds 369 897 30.7 63.4 87.6

    Pulses 42 586 33.4 99.2 117

    Source:faidelhi.org-Seminar-2009

    Changing the Landscape - New Investment Policy on the Verge of Announcement

    The Fertilizer space in India did not attract investments due to strict price controls. NPS-3 saw attractive investment

    policies for Urea players by way of incentivising them for capacity expansion. Further to that, NPS-4 policy is verge on

    announcement and we believe it would further increase the scope for capacity expansion. This policy would be meaningful

    if there is a hike in floor price which currently is fixed at $250 per tonne. Higher floor price would act as a cushion to thecurrently ruling high gas prices. Looking at these efforts of the GOI towards self-sufficiency and size of opportunity

    available we are optimistic on the prospects for the Fertilizer players, and see potential for stock specific re-ratings.

    The main driving factors for fertilizer business is regulation and raw-material availability and accordingly we have positioned

    the companys .We believe that companies that

    Expand its product profile and invest in product development

    Have linkages of raw-materials

    Plans in for Greenfield/Brownfield Expansion would be able to stand out from their counterparts.

    Under this backdrop, we feel Coromandel Fertilizer, Chambal Fertilizer and GSFC are well placed to plunge on the

    opportunities available.

    Competitive Advantage Ranking based On

    Energy Potential on

    Companies Consumption (Gcal) Unregulated Capacity(Mt)

    Chambal 2 1

    Tata Chemicals (TCL) 1 2

    RCF 4 4

    Nagarjuna 3 3

    Industry Key Drivers-Company Positioning

    Source : Dolat Research

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    Gujarat State Fertilizer

    GSFC is well poised to capitalize on opportunity to cater to the fastest growing state in agriculture. We are positive on the

    business model on back of diversified product portfolio based on a common sulphur based raw-material, and capacity

    addition (Methanol- 180,000 tpa and Caprolactam-70% increase in capacity to 120,000 tpa) these shall be the key

    drivers of volume growth. The restructuring of debt post 2004 has resulted in lower debt-equity ratio (2.26 in FY04 to

    0.17 in FY09) and lower interest outgo. Further, favorable government policy announcement of Nutrient Based Subsidyhave set the pace for a sustained growth momentum. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating (target price Rs.325 implying

    8xFY11E earnings)

    Coromandel International

    CIL, a Murugappa Group company, is a leading manufacturer of a wide range of Farm inputs and is the second largest

    manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers. The company is diversifying its revenue base towards the non-subsidy farm business

    by entering into high margin products like specialty nutrients and pesticides. Its presence in niche areas of complex

    fertilizers and assured supply of key raw materials places it in an advantageous position. CIL has also forayed into

    increasing its reach through aggressive initiatives on the rural areas . At CMP of Rs 466, CFL trades at a P/E of 12x

    FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a price target of Rs 561 (15x FY11E EPS).

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    Chambal Fertilizer

    Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals (CFCL), being one of the largest private player in Urea, is set to benefit from likely

    policy initiatives under NPS-4. The ongoing efforts to increase production capacity coupled with focus on cost of critical

    inputs like power (energy) would benefit at the level of operating margin. Also, linking of additional production to IPP over

    and above the cut-off limit would be visible at the top-line level. With the revival of economy, the other business divisions

    viz., textile and shipping revenues are also in a better position verses last year. However at CMP of Rs.65 the stocktrades at 10.8x FY11E earnings and is fairly valued and hence we initiate coverage with a Reduce recommendation.

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    BSE Sensex 17,503

    NSE Nifty 5249

    Scrip Details

    Equity Rs.797mn

    Face Value Rs.10/-

    Market Cap Rs.20.6bn

    US$443.9mn

    52 week High/Low Rs.265.85 / 130.15

    1-Month Avg. Volume 2703164

    BSE Code 532160

    NSE Symbol GUJSTATFIN

    Bloomberg Code GSF IN

    Reuters Code GSFN.BO

    Business Group - State Govt. Gujarat

    Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)

    Promoter 37.84

    FIIs 6.57

    MF/Banks/FIs 25.07

    Public / Others 30.52

    Segmental Push to drive growth...!!!

    GSFC is well poised to capitalize on opportunity to cater to the fastest growing state in agriculture. We are

    positive on the business model on back of diversified product portfolio based on a common sulphur based raw-

    material, and capacity addition (Methanol- 180,000 tpa and Caprolactam-70% increase in capacity to 120,000 tpa) these shall be the key drivers of volume growth. The restructuring of debt post 2004 has resulted in lower

    debt-equity ratio (2.26 in FY04 to 0.17 FY09) and lower interest outgo. Further, favorable government policy

    announcement of Nutrient Based Subsidy have set the pace for a sustained growth momentum. We initiate

    coverage with a Buy rating (target price Rs.325 implying 8xFY11E earnings)

    Gujarat State Fertilizer and Chemicals

    CMP: Rs 259

    Target Price: Rs 325 Fertilizer / Buy

    Investment Rationale

    Productive use of ideal capacity

    GSFC is currently refurbishing an old ammonia unit with a cost of Rs.3.3Bn at

    Baroda to produce 175,000 mtpa of methanol. This expansion is relatively cheaper

    than Greenfield set up for a Methanol Unit by 35%.The production is expected to

    commence by 1QFY12. This captive capacity of methanol, assured availability ofgas and strong demand would help sustain revenue growth. Based on our

    assumption of average realization of USD 300 per tonne, and at full capacity, the

    incremental revenue for the company will be Rs.2.4Bn.

    Playing on the Strength

    GSFC enjoys higher OPM on account of value added chemicals. It has drawn

    plans to expand its capacity for Caprolacturm by 70% to 120000 tonnes .It is also

    de-bottlenecking its existing capacity by 10% at a cost of Rs.1 billion. The enhanced

    capacity would be operational by Q3FY11. The plant over 3-4 years operates at

    100% capacity and hence we believe the company would achieve 100% utilization

    of increased capacity over a period of time. At full potential the incremental revenue

    accrued to the company would be approx Rs.3750-4000 Mn.Assured Raw-Material Linkage

    GSFC has entered into a JV with GCT Tunisia and Coromandel International for

    producing 3,60,000 Mt of phosphoric acid. GSFC will have right on half of the

    production. The production would go into mainstream from 4QFY11. This will

    ensure increase in production which was hampered due to raw-material constraints

    in FY09 (production fell by 8%). The impact of increased raw-material availability

    would be visible from FY12. We estimate the revenue to be Rs.28 Bn in FY12.

    Policy flow-Sector Perspective

    The recent policy initiatives by the government are favorable for complex players.

    With GSFC focusing on this category, we believe it would reap benefit from the

    Nutrient Based Subsidy policy. Its DAP market share at 7% and raw-materialefficiency through tie-ups will augur well for the company. Also, lower dependence

    on subsidy and fertilizer bonds would ease the working capital flow for GSFC.

    Valuation

    GSFC has sustained continuous growth in its cash flows which have grown from

    Rs.1.4 billion in FY06 to Rs.5.4 billion in FY2008, and to Rs.8.2 billion in FY2009.

    Our assumptions reflect only maintenance capex, we expect GSFC to generate

    sustainable cash flow of Rs. 3- 4 bn per annum. We initiate coverage and

    recommend a Buy with a target price of Rs.325 to trade at 8xFY11E earnings.Financial

    Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)

    FY09 58,808 64.8 8,501 14.5 4,994 8.4 62.8 108.0 4.1 2.8 29.3 33.0FY10P 40,192 (31.7) 4,477 11.1 2,545 6.2 31.9 (49.1) 8.1 6.0 12.5 15.5

    FY11E 39,720 (1.2) 6,126 15.4 3,238 8.0 40.6 27.2 6.4 2.6 14.2 17.1

    FY12E 44,193 11.3 7,256 16.4 3,900 8.7 48.9 20.4 5.3 2.1 15.0 18.9

    Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.

    GSFC relative to Sensex

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10

    GSFC Sensex

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    Company BackgroundGSFC is privately owned with stakeholders including Government of Gujarat (40% stake). GSFCs portfolio constitutes

    of fertilizers and Industrial Products. In fertilizer segment, it has one of the largest market shares in Diammonium Phosphate

    (DAP) in domestic market, and marginal presence in Urea segment. In Industrial segment it enjoys monopoly in melamine

    and MEK oxime and is also the largest manufacturer of caprolactum and Nylon-6 in the country. It enters into contracts

    for its gas requirement. Fertilizer segment contributed 70% to the topline in FY2010.

    Location Capacities

    Fertilizer Nagar (Baroda) Urea -3.64 Lakh tpa

    Ammonium Sulphate-1.96 Lakh tpa

    Caprolactam- 70,000 tpa

    Sulphuric Acid Plant-1.32 Lakh tpa

    Melamine-15,000 tpa

    MEK-Oxime-4450 tpa

    Sikka (Jamnagar) DAP-7.22 Lakh tpa

    Joint Venture

    TIFERT:GSFC along with Coromandel International Ltd ,Groupe Chimique Tunisien(GCT) and Compagnie des phosphates de

    Gafsa entered into an agreement to set up 0.36Mn tpa phosphoric acid plant called TIFERT (Tunisian Indian Fertilizer).

    GSFC and CIL will hold 15% stake each and rest would be held by other stakeholders. Through this JV, it will have

    access to 0.18 Mn tonnes of raw material. The production will begin in 4QFY11.

    Caprolactum Segment:

    GSFC plans to increase its Caprolactum capacity from 70,000 tonnes pa to 1, 20,000 tonnes per annum.. The key raw-

    materials for manufacturing Caprolactum are Benzene and Sulphuric Acid.

    Methanol Plant:

    GSFC plans to set up methanol plant of 525 tonnes per day by converting existing Ammonia-1 plant with total investmentof Rs.3300 Mn.The key raw material for production of methanol is natural gas.

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    INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Net Sales 58,808 40,192 39,720 44,193

    Other income 713 1,130 759 797

    Total Income 59,521 41,322 40,478 44,989

    Total Expenditure 50,307 35,715 33,594 36,936

    Raw Material 38,192 25,422 23,692 25,728

    Employee Expenses 3,890 2,902 2,607 3,063

    Power, Oil & Fuel 3,069 3,019 2,940 3,316Selling & Administrative Expenses 3,581 2,846 3,196

    Provisions & Write Offs

    Other Expenses 1,574 4,372 1,509 1,634

    EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 8,501 4,477 6,126 7,256

    EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 9,214 5,607 6,885 8,053

    Interest 392 306 370 400

    Gross Profit 8,822 5,300 6,515 7,653

    Depreciation 1,430 1,409 1,682 1,832

    Profit Before Tax & EO Items 7,392 3,891 4,832 5,820

    Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) 8 0 0

    Profit Before Tax 7,399 3,891 4,832 5,820

    Tax 2,406 1,346 1,595 1,921

    Net Profit 4,994 2,545 3,238 3,900

    BALANCE SHEET

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Sources of FundsEquity Capital 797 797 797 797

    Preference Capital

    Share Premium 3,052 3,052 3,052 3,052

    Other Reserves 15,465 17,561 20,350 23,800

    Net Worth 19,315 21,410 24,199 27,650

    Revaluation reserve

    Secured Loans 1,548 1,958 2,139

    Unsecured Loans 1,692 2,900 3,100

    Loan Funds 3,240 6,876 4,858 5,239

    Deferred Tax Liability 1,716 1,497 2,000 2,000

    Total Capital Employed 24,271 29,783 31,057 34,889

    Applications of Funds

    Gross Block 32,153 34,269 36,653 39,403

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 20,130 21,667 23,349 25,182

    Net Block 12,023 12,602 13,304 14,222

    Capital Work in Progress 509 100 100

    Investments 6,061 4,250 2,041 2,041

    Current Assets, Loans & Advances

    Inventories 7,456 6,111 6,529 7,022

    Sundry Debtors 4,807 6,216 5,441 7,265

    Cash and Bank Balance 381 601 9,382 10,992

    Loans and Advances 1,987 8,109 2,525 2,600

    Other Current Assets 0 0 0

    sub total 14,631 21,037 23,877 27,879

    Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions

    Current Liabilities 4,690 4,217 4,678 4,912

    Provisions 4,264 3,889 3,587 4,441

    sub total 8,954 8,106 8,265 9,353

    Net Current Assets 5,677 12,931 15,612 18,526

    Misc Expenses

    Total Assets 24,271 29,783 31,057 34,889

    CASH FLOW

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 7,399 3,891 4,832 5,820

    Depreciation & w.o. 1,429 1,409 1,682 1,832

    Net Interest Exp 392 306 370 400

    Direct taxes paid (2,442) (1,346) (1,595) (1,921)

    Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) 1,035 (7,033) 6,099 (1,304)

    Other 467

    (A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 8,280 (2,773) 11,389 4,828

    Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (1,291) (1,607) (2,484) (2,750)

    Free Cash Flow 6,989 (4,380) 8,905 2,078

    Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (4,435) 1,811 2,209 0

    Other 199

    (B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (5,527) 205 (275) (2,750)

    Issue of Equity/ Preference 0 0 0 0

    Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (2,348) 3,636 (2,018) 382

    Interest exp net (428) (306) (370) (400)

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (356) (449) (449) (449)

    Other (61)(C) Cash Flow from Financing (3,192) 2,881 (2,837) (468)

    Net Change in Cash (439) 312 8,277 1,610

    Opening Cash balances 820 381 601 9,382

    Closing Cash balances 381 601 9,382 10,992

    E-estimates

    IMPORTANT RATIOS

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10E Mar11E Mar12E

    (A) Measures of Performance (%)

    Contribution Margin

    EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 14.5 11.1 15.4 16.4

    EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 15.5 13.6 17.0 17.9

    Interest / Sales 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9

    Gross Profit Margin 14.8 12.8 16.1 17.0

    Tax/PBT 32.5 33.0 33.0 33.0Net Profit Margin 8.4 6.2 8.0 8.7

    (B) As Percentage of Net Sales

    Raw Material 64.9 63.3 59.6 58.2

    Employee Expenses 6.6 7.2 6.6 6.9

    Power, Oil & Fuel 5.2 7.5 7.4 7.5

    Selling & Administrative Expenses 6.1 0.0 7.2 7.2

    Provisions & Write Offs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Other Expenses 2.7 10.9 3.8 3.7

    (C) Measures of Financial Status

    Debt / Equity (x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

    Interest Coverage (x) 23.5 18.3 18.6 20.1

    Average Cost Of Debt (%) 8.9 6.1 6.3 7.9

    Debtors Period (days) 29.8 57.6 50.0 60.0

    Closing stock (days) 46.3 59.6 60.0 58.0

    Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 7.9 6.6 6.1 6.3

    Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1

    Working Capital Turnover (x) 10.4 3.1 2.5 2.4

    Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) 5,296.1 12,329.4 6,230.1 7,534.4

    (D) Measures of Investment

    EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 62.8 31.9 40.6 48.9

    EPS (Rs.) 62.7 31.9 40.6 48.9

    CEPS (Rs.) 80.6 49.6 61.7 71.9

    DPS (Rs.) 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0

    Dividend Payout (%) 7.2 15.7 12.3 10.2

    Profit Ploughback (%) 92.8 84.3 87.7 89.8

    Book Value (Rs.) 242.4 268.7 303.6 346.9

    RoANW (%) 29.3 12.5 14.2 15.0

    RoACE (%) 33.0 15.5 17.1 18.9

    RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 33.8 15.8 20.5 27.3

    (E) Valuation Ratios

    CMP (Rs.) 259.0 259.0 259.0 259.0P/E (x) 4.1 8.1 6.4 5.3

    Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 20,641.1 20,641.1 20,641.1 20,641.1

    MCap/ Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

    EV (Rs. Mn.) 23,499.7 26,915.7 16,117.0 14,888.4

    EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3

    EV/EBDITA (x) 2.8 6.0 2.6 2.1

    P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7

    Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9

    E-estimates

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    BSE Sensex 17,503

    NSE Nifty 5249

    Scrip Details

    Equity Rs.280.3mn

    Face Value Rs.2/-

    Market Cap Rs.65.3bn

    US$1404.5mn

    52 week High/Low Rs.377.40 / 133.65

    1-Month Avg. Volume 128856

    BSE Code 506385

    NSE Symbol COROMANDEL

    Bloomberg Code CRIN IN

    Reuters Code CORF.BO

    Business Group - Murugappa Group

    Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)

    Promoter 64.34

    FIIs 3.55MF/Banks/FIs 10.45

    Public / Others 21.66

    Fertile Connections...!!!CIL, a Murugappa Group company, is a leading manufacturer of a wide range of Farm inputs and is the second

    largest manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers. The company is diversifying its revenue base towards the non-

    subsidy farm business by entering into high margin products like specialty nutrients and pesticides. Its presencein niche areas of complex fertilizers and assured supply of key raw materials places it in an advantageous

    position. CIL has also forayed into increasing its reach through aggressive initiatives on the rural areas . At

    CMP of Rs 466, CFL trades at a P/E of 12x FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a price target of Rs

    561 (15x FY11E EPS).

    Coromandel International (CIL)

    CMP: Rs 466

    Target Price: Rs 561 Fertilizer / Accumulate

    Investment Rationale

    Revised policy to benefit complex fertilizer manufacturers

    Coromandel fertilizer stands to differentiate itself from other fertilizer players by

    catering to the non-nitrogenous fertilizer segment where demand growth is higher

    and government regulatory control is lower verses urea. Further, the latest

    government policy has brought all the subsidized prices of NPK at a fixed level,thereby encouraging farmers to ensure balanced consumption of nutrients. This

    would help boost use of non-urea fertilizers.

    Established raw material linkages

    CILs strategic tie-ups with companies in South Africa and Tunisia shall ensure

    availability of key raw materials including rock, sulphur and phosphoric acid. CIL

    JV TIFERT will commence its production in 4QFY11, ensuring 0.18 Mn tpa of

    secured phosphoric acid supplies. The company is also spreading its wing to

    West Asia and is in talks to set-up an urea and ammonia manufacturing plant in

    gas rich countries

    Leveraging its strong Brand EquityCIL has a strong hold in the southern market and is trying to leverage it by focusing

    on brand building and expanding its retail reach. It has increased its retail network

    from 20 centers last year to 400 centres. These centers would focus on marketing

    of farm inputs. These initiatives may drag the return ratios in near term; however

    long term these shall help deliver strong operating performance

    Focus on high margin business

    In order to diversify, CFL also plans to focus on high margin segments of pesticides

    and specialty nutrients like water soluble fertilizers and micro-nutrients. CFL has

    entered into a JV with SQM, Chile, for manufacturing water soluble fertilizers at

    Kakinada, AP which would be operational from 3QFY11

    ValuationThere has been an increased impetus to complex fertilizer manufacturers by way

    of policy amendment along with better visibility of raw material supplies.

    Furthermore focus on higher margin non fertilizer businesses enable the company

    to reduce vulnerability to controlled sector exposure. CIL has been a consistent

    dividend paying company with a dividend yield of 3% in FY10. At CMP of Rs 466,

    CFL trades at a P/E of 12x FY11E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate with a

    price target of Rs 561 (15x FY11E EPS).Financials

    Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)

    FY09 93,750 149.5 6,521 7.0 4,009 5.8 28.7 90.8 16.3 12.1 55.7 32.2

    FY10P 63,947 (31.8) 7,100 11.1 4,677 7.2 33.4 16.4 14.0 10.2 32.7 25.2

    FY11E 68,331 6.9 8,123 11.9 5,248 7.6 37.4 12.2 12.4 7.7 27.6 27.5

    FY12E 83,986 22.9 10,426 12.4 6,576 7.8 46.9 25.3 9.9 5.5 26.6 32.6

    Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.

    CIL relative to Sensex

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    Company Background:

    Coromandel International Ltd (CIL), a Muruguppa group company, is the leading manufacturer of phosphatic fertilizers.EID

    Parry holds 62.8% in CIL. The fertilizer plants are located at Vishakapatnam and Kakinada in AP, Ennore and Ranipet in

    Tamil Nadu. It has a combined capacity of 2.3 million tonnes of complex Fertilizers.

    CIL currently drives its major revenues from the own manufactured fertilizer and traded goods. This revenue stream shall

    diversify with increasing contribution from plant protection and specialty nutrients segments from the current 10% of

    revenue to 25% over 3 years time frame. CILs strong distribution reach across states like Andhra Pradesh (425 outlets)

    and southern states at large shall be the key to these plans.

    Manufacturing process of DAP:

    Location CapacitiesKakinada & Vishakapatnam in AP DAP/Complex Fertilizer-22 Lakh tpa

    Ennore & Ranipet in TN SSP -1.32 Lakh Tonnes

    Ranipet,TN,Jammu,Maharashtra Plant Protection Capacity

    Technicals-14580 Mt

    Formulations-10900 KL

    Others-5600

    Right tie-ups:

    CIL has scored on its prudent tie-ups:

    Strategic Moves Objective

    1 Acquisition in EID Parry Broaden Product Portfoilo

    2 Acquisition in Godavari fertilizer & Chemicals Braodening its base and giving bargaining power

    3 CIL 15% stake in FOSKOR Ensure raw-material availability

    4 CIL acquired 50.7% of equity in FICOM Increase its Pesticides exposure

    5 CIL and GSFC JV with GCT Tunisia with CIL share of 0.18 mn mt Increase raw-material availability

    6 Acquires Pasura Biotech Increase its reach in Pesticides segment

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    INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Net Sales 93,750 63,947 68,331 83,986

    Other income 2,066 1,362 752 500

    Total Income 95,816 65,309 69,083 84,486

    Total Expenditure 87,229 56,847 60,208 73,560

    Raw Material 80,212 48,593 52,111 64,352

    Employee Expenses 1,335 1,674 1,811 2,402

    Power, Oil & Fuel 630 1,367 1,512Selling & Administrative Expenses 2,128 2,850 3,100

    Provisions & Write Offs 1,335 102 70

    Other Expenses 1,588 6,580 1,968 2,124

    EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 6,521 7,100 8,123 10,426

    EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 8,587 8,462 8,875 10,926

    Interest 876 782 399 420

    Gross Profit 7,711 7,680 8,476 10,506

    Depreciation 562 594 643 691

    Profit Before Tax & EO Items 7,149 7,086 7,833 9,815

    Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) (1,586)

    Profit Before Tax 8,735 7,086 7,833 9,815

    Tax 3,140 2,409 2,585 3,239

    Net Profit 5,595 4,677 5,248 6,576

    BALANCE SHEET

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Sources of Funds

    Equity Capital 280 280 280 280

    Preference Capital

    Share Premium 601 601 601 601

    Other Reserves 11,239 15,588 20,678 27,096

    Net Worth 12,120 16,469 21,559 27,977

    Revaluation reserve

    Secured Loans 3,478 5,300 3,300 3,500

    Unsecured Loans 14,230 9,200 2,400 2,500

    Loan Funds 17,708 14,500 5,700 6,000

    Deferred Tax Liability 795 795 795 795

    Total Capital Employed 30,622 31,764 28,054 34,772

    Applications of Funds

    Gross Block 12,101 12,401 13,401 14,401

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 4,414 5,008 5,651 6,342

    Net Block 7,688 7,394 7,751 8,059

    Capital Work in Progress 278 150 150 150

    Investments 2,208 3,500 3,500 3,500

    Current Assets, Loans & Advances

    Inventories 13,475 8,410 11,607 13,346

    Sundry Debtors 1,015 701 936 1,150

    Cash and Bank Balance 4,253 7,046 8,774 14,484

    Loans and Advances 10,528 7,896 6,711 6,846

    Other Current Assets 8,803 8,000

    sub total 38,074 32,052 28,028 35,826

    Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions

    Current Liabilities 16,384 10,215 9,698 11,054

    Provisions 1,242 1,118 1,677 1,710

    sub total 17,626 11,333 11,375 12,764

    Net Current Assets 20,448 20,720 16,653 23,062

    Misc Expenses

    Total Assets 30,622 31,764 28,054 34,772

    CASH FLOW

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 8,735 7,086 7,833 9,815

    Depreciation & w.o. 562 594 643 691

    Net Interest Exp 1,534 782 399 420

    Direct taxes paid (3,238) (2,409) (2,585) (3,239)

    Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) (7,392) 2,521 5,794 (699)

    Other (43)

    (A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 159 8,574 12,084 6,988

    Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (1,161) (172) (1,000) (1,000)

    Free Cash Flow (1,002) 8,402 11,084 5,988

    Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (1,740) (1,292) 0 0

    Other 1,241

    (B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (1,661) (1,464) (1,000) (1,000)

    Issue of Equity/ Preference 0 1 0 0

    Inc./(Dec.) in Debt (971) (3,208) (8,800) 300

    Interest exp net (870) (782) (399) (420)

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (1,529) (328) (158) (158)

    Other 8,052

    (C) Cash Flow from Financing 4,683 (4,317) (9,357) (278)

    Net Change in Cash 3,181 2,793 1,727 5,710

    Opening Cash balances 1,072 4,253 7,046 8,774

    Closing Cash balances 4,253 7,046 8,774 14,484

    E-estimates

    IMPORTANT RATIOS

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    (A) Measures of Performance (%)

    Contribution Margin

    EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 7.0 11.1 11.9 12.4

    EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 9.0 13.0 12.8 12.9

    Interest / Sales 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.5

    Gross Profit Margin 8.0 11.8 12.3 12.4

    Tax/PBT 35.9 33.0 33.0 33.0Net Profit Margin 5.8 7.2 7.6 7.8

    (B) As Percentage of Net Sales

    Raw Material 85.6 76.0 76.3 76.6

    Employee Expenses 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.9

    Power, Oil & Fuel 0.7 0.0 2.0 1.8

    Selling & Administrative Expenses 2.3 0.0 4.2 3.7

    Provisions & Write Offs 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.1

    Other Expenses 1.7 10.3 2.9 3.1

    (C) Measures of Financial Status

    Debt / Equity (x) 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.2

    Interest Coverage (x) 9.8 10.8 22.2 26.0

    Average Cost Of Debt (%) 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.0

    Debtors Period (days) 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0

    Closing stock (days) 52.5 48.0 62.0 58.0

    Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 7.0 7.6 5.9 6.3Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 7.7 5.2 5.1 5.8

    Working Capital Turnover (x) 4.6 3.1 4.1 3.6

    Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) 16,194.9 13,673.5 7,879.5 8,578.3

    (D) Measures of Investment

    EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 28.7 33.4 37.4 46.9

    EPS (Rs.) 40.0 33.4 37.4 46.9

    CEPS (Rs.) 44.0 37.6 42.0 51.9

    DPS (Rs.) 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0

    Dividend Payout (%) 25.0 30.0 13.4 10.7

    Profit Ploughback (%) 75.0 70.0 86.6 89.3

    Book Value (Rs.) 86.6 117.5 153.8 199.6

    RoANW (%) 55.7 32.7 27.6 26.6

    RoACE (%) 32.2 25.2 27.5 32.6

    RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 36.1 30.8 37.4 51.7

    (E) Valuation RatiosCMP (Rs.) 466.0 466.0 466.0 466.0

    P/E (x) 11.7 14.0 12.4 9.9

    Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 65,192.0 65,309.9 65,309.9 65,309.9

    MCap/ Sales (x) 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8

    EV (Rs. Mn.) 78,647.0 72,763.7 62,236.3 56,825.9

    EV/Sales (x) 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7

    EV/EBDITA (x) 12.1 10.2 7.7 5.5

    P/BV (x) 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.3

    Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 2.1 1.1 1.1

    E-estimates

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    BSE Sensex 17,503

    NSE Nifty 5249

    Scrip Details

    Equity Rs.4162.1mn

    Face Value Rs.10/-

    Market Cap Rs.23.5 bn

    US$510.3mn

    52 week High/Low Rs.75.60 / 40.10

    1-Month Avg. Volume 2703164

    BSE Code 500085

    NSE Symbol CHAMBLFERT

    Bloomberg Code CHMB IN

    Reuters Code CHMB.BO

    Business Group - Birla KK

    Shareholding Pattern as onMar10(%)

    Promoter 53.24FIIs 7.82

    MF/Banks/FIs 11.18

    Public / Others 27.76

    Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals

    CMP: Rs 65

    Target Price: Rs 66 Fertilizer / Reduce

    Investment Rationale

    Better Economics to creep in

    CFCL undertook de-bottlenecking of both its plants at Gadepan, Rajasthan in

    April 2009. This led to an enhancement in production capacity by 20% to 2.1 mn

    MT. This enhanced capacity shall also help CFCL qualify for 85% of IPP of Urea,

    with a floor and ceiling price of USD 250-450 per tonne. The impact of this enhancedcapacity and the therein policy benefit is yet to be reflected in the bottom-line. Our

    initial calculation suggests that the company has captured only part of the gain on

    account of this policy and the ramp up to full capacity will be delivered in FY11.

    For our projection of FY11 & FY12, we are assuming volumes to increase to 2.4

    mn MT and 2.5 mn MT

    Operating Efficacy

    The company has aggressively focused on managing its costs inputs, especially

    the power costs, in line with GoI policy on switching the operations to gas based

    plant. The reductions on this front have led to energy consumption declining by

    0.2 Gcal per MT of Urea .The companys energy and feedstock cost for FY10 is

    Rs.19Bn, we expect energy efficiency initiative will lead to savings of 3% andwould lead to improvement in EBIDTA margins

    Road towards decontrol

    CFCL, being one of the largest private players in the Urea segment, shall be the

    biggest beneficiary of deregulation of the segment. The Government has recently

    announced 10% increase in price of Urea to Rs.5310 a tonne, which shall benefit

    the company to the extent of easing working capital flow in terms of lower

    dependence on subsidy to that extent. The more beneficial component of the

    deregulation shall lie in a favorable policy in relation to investment in Greenfield

    Projects and further decontrol in prices of Urea.

    Optimum Capacity Utilization

    CFCL has over the years achieved capacity utilization over 100%. Also, given theeffectiveness of Urea as a fertilizer, the long term demand is sustainable. With

    the increased gas supply of 1.1 mmscmd and additional capacity, we expect an

    increase in volume from 1.9MT as on March 2009 to 2.4MT in FY11E

    ValuationBeing a significant player in the Urea segment, any positive trigger in form of

    positive investment policy announcement or revision in floor and ceiling prices

    will make the stock attractive. However, at CMP of Rs.65, the stock trades at

    10.8 FY11E EPS and is fairly valued and hence we initiate coverage with a reduce

    recommendation.Financials

    Year Net Sales % Growth EBIDTA OPM % PAT NPM % EPS (Rs.) % Growth PER (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) ROANW(%) ROACE (%)

    FY09 55,974 74.6 6,653 11.9 2,256 4.0 5.2 31.9 12.0 7.2 18.4 12.2

    FY10P 41,487 (25.9) 6,802 16.4 2,172 5.2 5.2 (1.4) 12.4 7.2 16.1 9.6

    FY11E 43,435 4.7 7,548 17.4 2,505 5.7 6.0 16.8 10.8 5.9 16.8 10.6

    FY12E 45,813 5.5 8,327 18.2 2,960 6.4 7.1 18.1 9.1 4.7 17.7 12.1

    Figure in Rs mn, P = Balance Sheet figures are projected.

    All eyes on Policy...!!!

    Chambal Fertilizer and Chemicals (CFCL), being one of the largest private player in Urea, is set to benefit from

    likely policy initiatives under NPS-4. The ongoing efforts to increase production capacity coupled with focus on

    cost of critical inputs like power (energy) would benefit at the level of operating margin. Also, linking of additional

    production to IPP over and above the cut-off limit would be visible at the top-line level. With the revival of

    economy, the other business divisions viz., textile and shipping revenues are also in a better position verses

    last year. However at CMP of Rs.65 the stock trades at 10x FY11E earnings and is fairly valued and hence we

    initiate coverage with a reduce recommendation.

    CFL relative to Sensex

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    Company Profile

    CFCL is one of the largest players in Urea, with a market share of 10% of the domestic Urea capacity. It has its production

    facilities in Gadepan Rajasthan of 2 million tones. CFCL has been allocated 1.1 mmscmd of gas from KG basin in the

    first phase. Both of its plants are gas based plants and are along the HBJ gas pipeline. The company also has strong

    rural distribution network.

    Own manufactured fertilizer & Traded Fertilizer:

    CFCL mainly derives its revenue from the fertilizer segment. They source their key raw-material i.e. gas through GAIL,

    IOC, RLNG, KG basin and APM. Currently they receive 3.3 mmscmd of gas. They utilize their strong distribution network

    for traded activities and trade in agro-chemicals, specialty fertilizers, pesticides and micro-nutrients.

    Shipping Segment

    CFCL is also present in Shipping, mainly with a perspective of focusing on the transportation of crude. In order to support

    this business further, the company has added one more Aframax vessel in end of FY10 to the already existing fleet size

    of 5 ships. This would increase contribution to topline in FY11.

    The shipping segment amounted for approximately 7% of the total consolidated revenue in FY10.

    Others

    CFCL has also entered into textiles, food processing and IT segments. However, contribution from this segment to

    revenues is insignificant.

    Location Capacities

    Gadepan,Rajasthan Urea- 17.3 Lakhs tpa

    Subsidiaries and Joint-Ventures

    Subsidiaries Objective to set up

    CFCL Infrastructure Ventures Ltd Development of Power Projects

    CFCL Overseas Ltd,cayman Islands For consolidation of its software business

    India Steamship Pte Ltd,Singapore Tap opportu nit ies in Shipping segment

    Strategic Stake in IMACID:

    In order to ensure the supply of scarce raw-material i.e phosphoric acid in India, CFCL has entered into strategic tie-up

    with IMACID Morocco. CFCL holds 33% stake, other investors with equal stake are Tata Chemicals and Office Cherifien

    Des Phosphates (OCP), Morocco.

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    INCOME STATEMENT Rs.mn

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Net Sales 55,974 41,487 43,435 45,813

    Other income 738 462 432 497

    Total Income 56,712 41,949 43,867 46,309

    Total Expenditure 49,321 34,685 35,887 37,486

    Raw Material 30,731 19,754 20,092 20,929

    Employee Expenses 1,934 1,991 2,042 2,154

    Power, Oil & Fuel 8,123 5,697 5,953 6,326Selling & Administrative Expenses 2,544 2,803 2,908

    Provisions & Write Offs 455 109 115

    Other Expenses 5,533 7,243 4,888 5,055

    EBIDTA (Excl. Other Income) 6,653 6,802 7,548 8,327

    EBIDTA (Incl. Other Income) 7,391 7,264 7,980 8,824

    Interest 1,386 888 1,279 1,333

    Gross Profit 6,005 6,376 6,701 7,491

    Depreciation 2,817 3,189 3,359 3,405

    Profit Before Tax & EO Items 3,189 3,187 3,341 4,086

    Extra Ordinary Exps/(Income) (82) (28)

    Profit Before Tax 3,270 3,215 3,341 4,086

    Tax 1,027 1,142 936 1,226

    Net Profit 2,243 2,073 2,406 2,860

    Minority Interest 13 99 99 99

    Net Profit 2,256 2,172 2,505 2,960

    BALANCE SHEET

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Sources of Funds

    Equity Capital 4,162 4,162 4,162 4,162

    Preference Capital 26

    Share Premium 1,162 1,162 1,162 1,162

    Other Reserves 7,495 8,776 10,343 12,364

    Net Worth 12,845 14,100 15,667 17,689

    Revaluation reserve

    Secured Loans 20,946 23,040 20,736 21,773

    Unsecured Loans 4,092 3,274 3,437 3,609

    Loan Funds 25,038 26,314 24,174 25,382

    Deferred Tax Liability 3,281 3,281 3,281 3,281

    Total Capital Employed 41,164 43,695 43,122 46,352

    Applications of Funds

    Gross Block 51,019 54,019 54,819 54,919

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 21,364 24,553 27,912 31,317

    Net Block 29,656 29,466 26,907 23,602

    Capital Work in Progress 2,247 1,247 447 0

    Investments 3,193 500 500 500

    Current Assets, Loans & Advances

    Inventories 3,791 3,978 4,165 4,393

    Sundry Debtors 6,880 4,547 4,760 5,021

    Cash and Bank Balance 4,321 4,509 6,930 13,563

    Loans and Advances 2,400 1,680 1,764 1,852

    Other Current Assets 3,683 3,500 3,500 3,500

    sub total 21,074 18,214 21,119 28,329

    Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions

    Current Liabilities 15,851 4,330 4,404 4,587

    Provisions 1,288 1,402 1,447 1,492

    sub total 17,139 5,732 5,851 6,079

    Net Current Assets 3,935 12,482 15,268 22,250

    Misc Expenses 17

    Total Assets 41,164 43,695 43,122 46,352

    CASH FLOW

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    Profit before tax and extra ordinary items 3,270 3,187 3,341 4,086

    Depreciation & w.o. 2,817 3,189 3,359 3,405

    Net Interest Exp 801 888 1,279 1,333

    Direct taxes paid (1,357) (1,142) (936) (1,226)

    Change in Working Capital (Non Cash) 5,105 (8,359) (365) (348)

    Other 1,578 2,261 99 99

    (A) Cash Flow from Operating Activities 12,214 25 6,778 7,349

    Capex {Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets n WIP} (10,630) (2,000) 0 347

    Free Cash Flow 1,584 (1,975) 6,778 7,695

    Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (3,032) 2,693 0 0

    Other (372)

    (B) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (14,034) 693 0 347

    Issue of Equity/ Preference 6 (26) 0 0

    Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 5,746 1,276 (2,140) 1,209

    Interest exp net (1,238) (888) (1,279) (1,333)

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (743) (891) (938) (938)

    Other (127)

    (C) Cash Flow from Financing 3,644 (530) (4,357) (1,062)

    Net Change in Cash 1,824 188 2,421 6,633

    Opening Cash balances 1,447 4,321 4,509 6,930

    Closing Cash balances 3,271 4,509 6,930 13,563

    E-estimates

    IMPORTANT RATIOS

    Particulars Mar09 Mar10P Mar11E Mar12E

    (A) Measures of Performance (%)

    Contribution Margin

    EBIDTA Margin (excl. O.I.) 11.9 16.4 17.4 18.2

    EBIDTA Margin (incl. O.I.) 13.0 17.3 18.2 19.1

    Interest / Sales 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.9

    Gross Profit Margin 10.6 15.2 15.3 16.2

    Tax/PBT 31.4 35.5 28.0 30.0Net Profit Margin 4.0 5.2 5.7 6.4

    (B) As Percentage of Net Sales

    Raw Material 54.9 47.6 46.3 45.7

    Employee Expenses 3.5 4.8 4.7 4.7

    Power, Oil & Fuel 14.5 13.7 13.7 13.8

    Selling & Administrative Expenses 4.5 0.0 6.5 6.3

    Provisions & Write Offs 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3

    Other Expenses 9.9 17.5 11.3 11.0

    (C) Measures of Financial Status

    Debt / Equity (x) 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4

    Interest Coverage (x) 5.3 8.2 6.2 6.6

    Average Cost Of Debt (%) 6.4 3.5 5.1 5.4

    Debtors Period (days) 44.9 40.0 40.0 40.0

    Closing stock (days) 24.7 35.0 35.0 35.0

    Inventory Turnover Ratio (x) 14.8 10.4 10.4 10.4

    Fixed Assets Turnover (x) 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8

    Working Capital Turnover (x) 14.2 3.3 2.8 2.1

    Non Cash Working Capital (Rs Mn) (385.6) 7,973.0 8,338.4 8,686.7

    (D) Measures of Investment

    EPS (Rs.) (excl EO) 5.2 5.2 6.0 7.1

    EPS (Rs.) 5.4 5.2 6.0 7.1

    CEPS (Rs.) 12.2 12.9 14.1 15.3

    DPS (Rs.) 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0

    Dividend Payout (%) 33.2 36.4 33.2 28.1

    Profit Ploughback (%) 66.8 63.6 66.8 71.9

    Book Value (Rs.) 30.9 33.9 37.6 42.5

    RoANW (%) 18.4 16.1 16.8 17.7

    RoACE (%) 12.2 9.6 10.6 12.1

    RoAIC (%) (Excl Cash & Invest.) 13.2 10.7 12.3 15.0

    (E) Valuation Ratios

    CMP (Rs.) 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.9P/E (x) 12.0 12.4 10.8 9.1

    Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) 26,991.1 26,991.1 26,991.1 26,991.1

    MCap/ Sales (x) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6

    EV (Rs. Mn.) 47,708.1 48,795.9 44,234.9 38,810.2

    EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.8

    EV/EBDITA (x) 7.2 7.2 5.9 4.7

    P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5

    Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1

    E-estimates

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    Annexure

    Fertilizer Industry: At a glance..!

    Fertilizer Next to water for Indian agriculture

    Agricultural sector is the foundation of the rural Indian economy around which socio-economic privileges and hardshipsrevolve, and any change in its structure draws a corresponding impact on the existing pattern of social equality. Fertilizer

    being the key efficiency booster in the entire production process occupies a center stage in rural economy. It is so

    significant that even the Indian National political scenario gets influenced by any amendments in the Fertilizer Policy.

    The Efforts.The Result

    Government of India since independence has been striving hard to maintain this socio-economic status. Green Revolution

    adopted by India in 1965 was a right step towards achieving self sufficiency. However, with passage of time and lack of

    awareness among farmer communities, this movement has not progressed much and has led to biggest threat of Food

    Security and Soil Degradation. We can see that there has been a gradual fall in the crops response to fertilizer from the

    5th Plan to the 11th Plan.

    Declining crop response to FertilizerPeriod Kg foodgrains per kg nutrients(NPK)

    5th Plan (1974-79) 15.0

    8th Plan (1992-97) 7.5

    9th Plan (1997-02) 7.0

    10th Plan(2002-07) 6.5

    11th Plan(2007-12) 6.0

    Source: Dr.R.K.Tewatia - Emerging as pects of balanced fertilizer use in India

    In an attempt to enhance agricultural productivity, fertilizer intake gained importance. Government of India (GOI) introduced

    subsidies to fertilizer companies with an aim to make it affordable to the farmers. Though the policies were revised at

    regular intervals, prices of key fertilizers remained stagnant since 2002 as any increase in the same led to huge agitations.With severe government control and regulations, it proved to be feeble framework. There was virtually no capacity

    addition since 2002 and dependence on import increased. It is clearly visible from the graph, wherein the production

    remained stagnant leading to incremental demand being met through imports which grew 5 times to 16.2 Mn Tonne.

    Over time the cost of subsidy started weighing heavily on Indias fiscal balance. Indias position in world trade weakened

    and currently India is worlds largest importer of Urea fertilizer. Increase in crude oil prices resulted in volatility in fertilizer

    prices leading to rising import bills which put India in an economic imbroglio. Fertilizer subsidy in India has grown at a

    CAGR of 48.03% since FY03.

    Fertilizer Subsidy: Weighing Heavily on India Fiscal Balance Fertilizer Industry: Worsening Margins

    *Aggregate of Coromandel, RCF, GSFC, ChambalSource: http://indiabudget.nic.in

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    The Ultimate Objective

    Subsidies directly to the farmers: To entrench the benefit of the subsidies to the actual user of the fertilizers, GOI

    plans to directly disseminate it at the ground level. Tools like Unique identification project and kisan credit cards

    can prove to be handy. However, it still remains a far-fetched idea till proper mechanism is in place to reach out

    to lakh of farmers.

    Adopted by other countries: Internationally too countries have adopted voucher system and have found it to be a

    great success. A case in example is of states of Kano and Tarba in Nigeria which have turned out to be net grain

    exporter from a 4 year long famine state.

    a. They identified the reason for effect on productivity was due to problems associated with government policies

    rather than from lack of farmers awareness

    b. They introduced voucher system wherein the goal was to devise a sustainable Targeted Input Marketing

    System (TIMS) that will ensure efficient, cost effective and expedient subsidies to targeted farmers

    c. Steps undertaken by the government were to develop a private sector fertilizer distribution system which will

    allow the government to exit from fertilizer supply chain.

    d. Voucher a discount coupon was handed to the farmers to be used to make payments to specified dealerswho could thereby redeem it against an agreed margins

    e. Built in the system is a targeting mechanisms, a subsidy mechanism, as well as a voucher redemption

    system with built - in safe guards against fraud which include the use of picture and thumbprint of the farmer

    groups representatives.

    f. Upon completing the voucher distribution in Kano, part of the success recorded is that targeted farmers

    (many of them for the first time) are receiving government subsidy in a transparent and cost effective manner.

    An effective chain for fertilizer distribution has been established between the major fertilizer companies and

    retailers in all local government areas of the state. Agro dealers have been brought to the limelight by

    enabling them to participate actively in their businesses.

    g. Stunning developments in these states have set an example for others to emulate fertilizer voucher scheme.

    What does it mean to fertilizer Companies in India?

    Fertilizer sector in India is witnessing a gradual move from the clutches of Government. The recent policy announcements

    are the need of the hour for increasing the competitiveness among the producers and attracting investments to enhance

    the capacity.

    Source : Dolat Research

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    Inte

    ntiona

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    Bla

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    DOLATCAPITAL

    BUY Upside above 20%

    ACCUMULATE Upside above 5% and up to 20%

    REDUCE Upside up to 5%

    SELL Negative Returns

    DolaDolaDolaDolaDolatttttCapital Market Pvt. Ltd.20 R j b h d M i 1 Fl A b l l D hi M F M b i 400 001

    Sector / Tel. No.

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