FEWS NET [email protected]www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. PRICE WATCH September 2020 Prices October 30, 2020 KEY MESSAGES • In West Africa, market supplies in cereals and legumes started to increase in September ahead of the 2020/21 marketing year. At the same time, market demand began to decrease seasonally. Persisting insecurity continued to affect market functioning and access in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, the Tibesti region. Coarse grain prices decreased seasonally between August and September, notably in the Sahel. Food prices in Nigeria also decreased from August levels but remained above average due to the macroeconomic downturn. Livestock market activity was limited due to seasonal migration of animals to dry season grazing lands and COVID-19 related movement restrictions (Page 3). • In East Africa, staple food price trends varied across the region. COVID-19 related movement restrictions continued to contribute to some atypical supply, demand, and price patterns. Maize prices declined following the recent of May-to- August harvests in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania in a context of weak regional demand and were stable in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Sorghum, millet, and locally-produced wheat prices increased toward the end of the lean season in Sudan and South Sudan. Livestock prices remained stable at elevated levels due to good animal body conditions (Page 4). • In Southern Africa, markets were well supplied with maize in most countries of the region as the 2020/21 marketing year progressed. Prices varied seasonally in many countries. South Africa continued exporting maize to structurally-deficit countries of the region, notably to Zimbabwe where local production deficits coupled with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have led to persistently increasing prices. Zambia maintained a ban on formal maize exports but continued exporting via informal channels due to favorable prices in neighboring countries (Page 5). • In Central America, maize and bean supplies were at average to above average levels in September, supported by ongoing 2020 Primera season harvest and imports. Maize and bean prices were stable or decreasing on average. In Haiti, staple food supplies were at average to below-average levels in September, while prices were stable or decreasing on average. The HTG appreciated against the USD (Page 6). • In Central Asia, wheat prices were stable or decreasing on average in Afghanistan and Kazakhstan while wheat prices increased in Pakistan. In Yemen, the broader conflict and macroeconomic context continued to disrupt overall market functioning and food access with staple food and fuel prices remaining above average levels (Page 7). • International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice, wheat, maize, and soybean prices increased in September (Figure 2). Global crude oil prices decreased as the pace of the global oil demand recovery eased. Global fertilizer prices were stable in September (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET market monitoring country coverage Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
PRICE WATCH September 2020 Prices October 30, 2020
KEY MESSAGES
• In West Africa, market supplies in cereals and legumes started to increase in September ahead of the 2020/21 marketing year. At the same time, market demand began to decrease seasonally. Persisting insecurity continued to affect market functioning and access in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, the Tibesti region. Coarse grain prices decreased seasonally between August and September, notably in the Sahel. Food prices in Nigeria also decreased from August levels but remained above average due to the macroeconomic downturn. Livestock market activity was limited due to seasonal migration of animals to dry season grazing lands and COVID-19 related movement restrictions (Page 3).
• In East Africa, staple food price trends varied across the region. COVID-19 related movement restrictions continued to contribute to some atypical supply, demand, and price patterns. Maize prices declined following the recent of May-to-August harvests in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania in a context of weak regional demand and were stable in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Sorghum, millet, and locally-produced wheat prices increased toward the end of the lean season in Sudan and South Sudan. Livestock prices remained stable at elevated levels due to good animal body conditions (Page 4).
• In Southern Africa, markets were well supplied with maize in most countries of the region as the 2020/21 marketing year progressed. Prices varied seasonally in many countries. South Africa continued exporting maize to structurally-deficit countries of the region, notably to Zimbabwe where local production deficits coupled with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have led to persistently increasing prices. Zambia maintained a ban on formal maize exports but continued exporting via informal channels due to favorable prices in neighboring countries (Page 5).
• In Central America, maize and bean supplies were at average to above average levels in September, supported by ongoing 2020 Primera season harvest and imports. Maize and bean prices were stable or decreasing on average. In Haiti, staple food supplies were at average to below-average levels in September, while prices were stable or decreasing on average. The HTG appreciated against the USD (Page 6).
• In Central Asia, wheat prices were stable or decreasing on average in Afghanistan and Kazakhstan while wheat prices increased in Pakistan. In Yemen, the broader conflict and macroeconomic context continued to disrupt overall market functioning and food access with staple food and fuel prices remaining above average levels (Page 7).
• International staple food markets are well supplied. Rice, wheat, maize, and soybean prices increased in September (Figure 2). Global crude oil prices decreased as the pace of the global oil demand recovery eased. Global fertilizer prices were stable in September (Page 2).
Figure 1. FEWS NET market monitoring country coverage
Source: FEWS NET
FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data.
Current situation (September 2020) • International rice prices were stable or decreasing in
September due to weaker export demand (InterRice). Prices were on average above pre-COVID-19 levels and remained above their respective September 2019 and five-year average levels (Figure 2).
• Global maize prices rebounded sharply in September following reports of lower E.U. production and U.S. inventory levels. Maize prices were above their respective September 2019 and five-year average levels (FAO).
• International wheat prices increased in September as trading increased amid concerns over crop conditions in Argentina, Australia and parts of Europe (FAO and USDA). Wheat prices were on average above their respective September 2019 and five-year average levels.
• Global soybean prices increased in September due to concerns over reduced South America supply and lower U.S. production forecast (AMIS and IGC). Soybean prices were above September 2019 and five-year average levels.
• International crude oil prices decreased in September with the slowing pace of global oil demand recovery, while prices remained below average levels (U.S. Energy Information Administration). Global fertilizer prices were stable in September partly reflecting the recent recovery in energy markets. Prices were close to September 2019 levels but remained below five-year average levels (AMIS and WB).
Outlook (October 2020 onward) • Global rice production is expected to increase year-on-year due to anticipated larger crops in the U.S., China, and
Southeast Asia. Rice production will continue to outpace consumption levels (Figure 3). Rice prices are expected to remain at above average levels in 2020 and decrease marginally in 2021 (InterRice and WB).
• Global maize production is projected to increase in MY 2020/21 and exceed consumption for the first time in four years. Maize prices are expected to remain at below average levels in 2020 and increase marginally in 2021 (IGC and WB).
• Global wheat production is expected to increase in MY 2020/21 due to expectations for larger crops in Australia and Canada. Wheat prices are expected to remain below average in 2020 and increase marginally in 2021 (USDA and WB).
• Global soybean production is projected to increase above the record set in 2018/19 and will outpace consumption trends. Soybean prices are expected to remain below average in 2020 and increase marginally in 2021 (USDA and WB).
• Crude oil inventories are expected to fall through the end of 2021. High inventory levels and surplus production capacity are expected to limit upward price pressures in the coming months (U.S. Energy Information Administration). Global fertilizer prices are projected to decrease in 2020 and increase in 2021 (AMIS and WB).
Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January 2014 – September 2020
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
World Bank
Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2020/21 compared to 2015-2019 average
Source: FEWS NET calculations based on USDA data
Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies.
Current situation (September 2020) • Market supplies increased as traders released carryover
stocks and with the onset of early cereal and legume harvests across the region. Border restrictions, including ECOWAS sanctions on Mali and COVID-19 related measures, continued to affect food trade flows and availability across the region in September. Persisting insecurity continued to affect market functioning and access in the Greater Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, the Tibesti region. Market demand began to decrease seasonally.
• In Nigeria, the region’s largest producer and consumer, some staple food prices eased with improved supply following the start of the green harvests eased. However, most staple food prices remained above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels. Insecurity continued in the northeast, and conflict and banditry persisted in the northwest and central north, limiting food availability and trade flows with neighboring countries. The value of NGN relative to the USD remained low after reaching its lowest rate in August (FEWS NET). Inflation increased for the 13th consecutive month, reaching 13.71, its highest rate in over two years (NBS).
• In the Sahel, coarse grain prices decreased seasonally between August and September, particularly in Mali, Niger, and parts of Burkina Faso (Figure 4). Prices were above average in areas affected by conflict and trade disruptions. In coastal countries, local and imported rice prices decreased compared to August prices. Still, they remained above average for the most part due to the macroeconomic downturn, especially in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Figure 5). In Cameroon, prices for most locally-produced food staples stabilized or decreased compared to previous months. However, prices remained above average in urban areas due to COVID-19 movement restrictions, in the northwest and southwest due to conflict, and in the far north due to atypical stock depletion since July.
• Livestock market activity was limited due to seasonal migration of animals to dry season grazing lands and COVID-19 related movement restrictions. Prices varied regionally, with prices increasing in several markets because of low supply and favorable animal body conditions. In insecure areas, however, livestock trade was limited, resulting in declining prices.
Outlook (October 2020 onward) • In the Sahel, market supplies will increase seasonally with the progression of harvests throughout October and November
and demand will continue to decrease household rely increasingly on their own stocks. Since the lifting of ECOWAS sanctions on Mali on 6 October and reopening of borders, cross-border demand in Mali from neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger has been strong; FEWS NET will continue to monitor the developing situation. Regional institutional staple food demand is expected to be to replenish stocks following some unscheduled distributions in 2020. Prices will decrease seasonally, but will remain above average in many areas, particularly those experiencing deficits or limited inflows.
• In Nigeria, although the green harvest began in September, households will continue to rely on markets through October. Staple food prices are expected to ease month-on-month but remain above average given the increase in petrol and transportation costs, and the broader current macroeconomic context.
Figure 4. September 2020 sorghum prices in West Africa compared to the previous month (% change)
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 5. Regional 2020 imported rice prices and exchange rates compared to the five-year average (% change)
Current situation (September 2020) • Market and price trends varied across East Africa in
September (Figure 6 and Figure 7). Staple food prices followed seasonal declining trends in Tanzania and Uganda because of increased supply from recent harvests coupled with weak regional demand. Prices increased and stocks tightened seasonally in Sudan and South Sudan. Livestock prices remained elevated.
• COVID-19 related movement restrictions continue to have direct and indirect market impacts across the region. Regional currencies have depreciated persistently in many countries of the region in recent years, both in terms of the official and parallel exchange rates. These trends put upward pressure on the cost of imported goods and contribute to the overall inflationary context observed in many parts of the region.
• In Kenya maize prices were seasonally stable ahead of October-to-December harvests. Locally-produced maize prices were seasonally stable following June-to-July harvests in Somalia. However, sorghum prices increased atypically in the main producing Baidoa market due to below average local production and strong demand in the marketing basin it serves (Figure 6).
• Sudan is facing multiple market shocks this year. The 2019/20 import gap was above average while the global oil price slump has affected export earning opportunities and contributed to the persistent depreciation of the SDG and increasing the relative cost of imports (Figure 7). Local and imported commodity prices were already at elevated levels and increased further in September with the progression of the lean season. Typical rainy season price increases were accentuated in South Sudan because of relatively low pre-stocking linked to COVID-19 related movement restrictions earlier in the year. Prices began declining in Aweil with the onset of local harvests and the availability of food assistance. Prices remained stable at elevated levels in Ethiopia at the peak of the June-to-September lean season. In Burundi, grains, pulses, roots, and tuber prices increased seasonally across most markets as supplies started to tighten and due to below average imports from Tanzania and Zambia.
Outlook (October 2020 onward) • Staple food prices are expected to increase seasonally in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania. Staple food prices in
Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan will likely remain elevated and decline seasonally following upcoming harvests. Despite reduced livestock demand in the Middle East, livestock demand across pastoral areas of East Africa is expected to remain stable at elevated levels due to favorable rangeland and body conditions. However, prices may decline from February 2021 onward as livestock body conditions deteriorate.
• COVID-19 related movement restrictions are expected to continue creating delays in commodity supply chains. The global economic downturn attributed to COVID-19 will likely continue limiting foreign exchange reserves gained though export earnings (such as fuel and cash crops) and remittance flows. This will likely lead to further depreciation of local currencies and may contribute to elevated price trends for both imported commodities and their local substitutes.
Figure 6. September 2020 maize prices and production status in East Africa compared to average (% change)
Source: FEWS NET/FARMERS, EGTE, WFP, BI MoA, and, FSNAU and
Current situation (September 2020) • In Southern Africa, markets were well supplied with maize
in September with the progression of the 2020/21 marketing year. Carryover stocks from the 2019/20 marketing year are estimated to be well below average, while recent regional harvests are estimated to be average to above average. Month-on-month trends generally followed typical seasonal trends (Figure 8).
• In South Africa, export parity prices continued to increase and are comparable to or above international reference prices. Despite ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, South Africa continued exporting maize grain and products to grain deficit countries within the regional and internationally. Monthly exports to Zimbabwe have expanded following changes to Zimbabwe’s phytosanitary (GMO) requirements (World Grain). Domestic maize supplies in South Africa in 2020/21 are expected to cover domestic consumption needs and exports to regional maize deficit countries. Regional informal trade remains dynamic as well (Figure 9).
• Tanzania’s maize supplies were at average to above-average levels, while maize grain prices varied seasonally across surplus and deficit areas. Cross-border movement restrictions have led to delays in exports to neighboring countries in East Africa, while Kenyan imports from international markets has reduced regional import demand. In Zambia prices were above their respective 2019 levels as the currency continued to depreciate. Zambia’s formal maize export ban remains in place while informal exports to DRC and Malawi continue.
• In Zimbabwe, despite the availability of imports from South Africa, maize grain availability remained limited in September and only maize meal was available on some markets. Price trends varied depending on the currency used for transactions, remaining relatively stable for goods traded in USD and ZAR and continuing to increase for goods traded in ZWL. Government subsidized maize meal supplies remained limited. In Malawi, maize grain prices increased seasonally at above average levels and remained below the ADMARC price of MWK 200/kg. In Mozambique, maize grain prices varied seasonally but remained significantly above average, while maize meal and rice prices were more stable and closer to average levels. In DRC, maize meal and cassava flour prices increased rapidly in the first weeks of March in response to panic purchases and stock retention linked to COVID-19 before declining in April and May and stabilizing between June and August. In Madagascar, local rice prices continued to increase in September. Recent harvests and ongoing food assistance activities have had localized market impacts, respectively.
Outlook (October 2020 and onward) • Regional supplies for the 2020/21 marketing year are expected to be average to above average. South Africa is expected
to export average to above average volumes to maize deficit countries. Zambia’s maize grain export ban is expected to remain in place, although government to government exports are likely (especially with the DRC). Maize prices will begin increasing seasonally October onward and will remain above average.
• COVID-19 related movement restrictions and social distancing measures will likely continue to affect regional labor markets and informal trade flows due to the more labor-intensive nature of this work. Export earnings are expected to decline across the region, resulting in further depreciation of local currencies and relatively higher import costs.
Figure 8. White maize grain prices in selected Southern Africa markets (USD/kg) April 2015- September 2020
Source: SAFEX, SIMA, MoA, CSO, ZimStat
Figure 9. September informal commodity trade flow volumes (MT) in Southern Africa, 2017-2020
Source: Insert source here. Only the source itself is italicized, NOT the
Current situation (September 2020) • In Central America, markets were supplied with maize and
beans from ongoing 2020 Primera season harvest, along with regional and international imports. Stable regional supply will be supported by average level 2020 Primera harvest. Informal imports from Mexico are expected to continue supporting supplies in Guatemala. Demand is projected to decrease due to decreasing incomes from employment opportunity losses and movement restrictions.
• Wholesale and retail maize prices decreased on average in September (Figure 10), as domestic supplies were augmented from the ongoing 2020 Primera season harvest and from imports. Wholesale and retail prices were stable or lower than 2019 and five-year average levels.
• Dry bean wholesale and retail prices were, on average, stable or decreasing in September as stable regional trade flows facilitated the movement of supplies from anticipated average to above average 2020 Primera season harvest. Wholesale and retail prices were stable in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua relative to 2019 levels but decreased in Honduras. Wholesale and retail prices were on average stable or lower than five-year average levels. Rice wholesale prices were on average stable in September but remained above 2019 and five-year average levels.
• In Haiti, local and imported staple food supplies were at average to below-average levels. Imported and local staple food prices were on average stable or decreasing in September and remained significantly above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels. The HTG appreciated slightly against the USD (Figure 11).
Outlook (October 2020 onward) • In Central America, maize and bean prices are expected to
continue decreasing seasonally in October. Maize and black bean prices will likely remain above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels, even with anticipated average to above-average Primera season harvest. Informal imports from Mexico will continue to supplement national production in Guatemala and stabilize prices. Imported rice availability will remain adequate and rice prices are expected to be stable or decreasing due to average harvest forecast for the U.S., which is the region’s leading supplier. Easing of COVID-19 related restriction in the coming months could allow for income-generating activities to resume and support some recovery in household incomes and purchasing power.
• In Haiti, above average import requirements are anticipated for MY 2020/21. However, imported food prices may decline as the Haitian gourde appreciates against the USD, in response to recent expansionary monetary policy intervention by the Haitian authorities. Access to imported staple foods from the Dominican Republic will continue to be influenced by COVID-19 related border restrictions. Local staple food prices will likely increase atypically in the coming months due to below average 2020 spring harvest, and particularly in the southeast region, where tropical storm Laura has resulted in crop loss and road access constraints.
Figure 10. September 2020 maize prices in Central America compared to the previous month (% change)
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 11. Average national staple food prices and exchange rate in Haiti, January 2015 – September 2020
Current situation (September 2020) • Regional wheat availability and price trends varied across
Central Asia in September (Figure 12). As detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, localized wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. In Yemen, markets remain severely disrupted by ongoing macroeconomic challenges, conflict, climate shocks and COVID-19 restrictions.
• In Kazakhstan, the main 2020 wheat crop is progressing under generally favorable conditions. Wheat production is forecasted at 12.8 MMT, nine percent above the previous year’s levels. Wheat export prices were stable at the Saryagash Station market but remained 14 and 30 percent above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels.
• In Pakistan, MY 2020/21 wheat production is estimated at 25.7 MMT, a six percent increase from MY 2019/20. The government is continuing to implement measures to boost domestic availability and build strategic reserves, with wheat imports forecast to be at their highest levels in the last decade (USDA). Wheat prices increased across key reference markets in September and remained significantly above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels.
• In Afghanistan, wheat prices were stable or decreasing in September across key reference markets due to expectations for a near average harvest (5.1 MMT). Wheat prices remained significantly above their respective 2019 and five-year average levels.
• In Yemen, locally-produced staple food prices were generally stable, while imported staple food prices increased in September. Staple food prices remained significantly above five-year average levels (Figure 13). Fuel prices continued to increase across the country, particularly in northern governorates, contributing to rising food processing and transportation costs. The YER continued to depreciate against the USD with secondary exchange rates in northern governorates averaging over 20 percent above secondary exchange rates in southern governorates.
Outlook (October 2020 onward) • In Afghanistan, the MY 2020/21 wheat harvest is expected to be near average, despite localized deficits. Wheat import
requirements are estimated at about two MMT and will be filled mainly with imports from Kazakhstan. Pakistan is expected to import up to one MMT of wheat to stabilize the local market and ease supply pressures during MY 2020/21 (USDA). In Kazakhstan, below average wheat flour export levels are anticipated for MY 2020/21 due to below average production (FAO). MY 2020/21 wheat flour exports are projected to fall by nine percent compared to MY 2019/21 due to reduced demand from traditional buyers and increased competition from Russia and Ukraine (USDA).
• In Yemen, food and fuel prices will likely increase in the coming months from ongoing macroeconomic challenges, supply chain delays and higher transport costs. Household purchasing power will remain weak. The YER will likely depreciate further against the USD in the absence of measures to address underlying imbalances in the currency market.
Figure 12. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (USD/kg)
Source: WFP, VAM, APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan
Figure 13. Average monthly secondary exchange rate and imported wheat flour price trends in Yemen
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 September 2020 Prices October 31, 2020
Food and Fuel Price Trends Food and Fuel Price Trends
▲ ►Burkina Faso Burkina Faso
2 29 9 ► ▲ ▲
►
West
Afr
ica
11 31 2 ▲
2 34 10 ►
0 ► ▲ ►
0 22 6 ► ▲ ▲
▲ ▲
-3 14 0 ► ▲ ► 5 34
7 67 13 ▲ ▲ ▲
Burkina Faso Burkina Faso
2 56 25 ► ▲ ▲
-2 35
-2 40 1 ► ▲ ►
Burkina Faso Cameroon
5 43 14 ► ▲ ▲
5 8
5 65 29 ► ▲ ▲
2 ► ▲ ►
3 36 4 ► ▲ ►
6 ► ▲ ▲ 2 60
3 ► ▲ ►Mali
0 -6 -2 ► ▼
-8 ► ▲ ▼ 5 19
11 58 - ▲ ▲ -
9 ► ▲ ▲Mali
2 27 16 ► ▲
►Burkina Faso
0 23 9 ► ▲ ▲ -2 13
► 3 3 -5 ► ►
2 ▲ ▲ ►Mali
0 26 13 ► ▲
▲Mali
0 18 17 ► ▲ ▲ 10 13
▲ 9 20 8 ▲ ▲
4 ► ▲ ►Mali
►Mali
0 -2 -2 ► ► ► -2 33
▲ 6 13 0 ▲ ▲
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United
States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices
and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for September 2020. Commodities
included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same
areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols (▲►▼) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an
increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price
decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year
average. The “-“ symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail.
PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 September 2020 prices October 31, 2020
We
st A
fric
a
Figure 14. Millet prices in West Africa (2013 - 2020) Figure 15. Sorghum prices in West Africa (2014 - 2020)
Figure 16. Maize prices in West Africa (2014 - 2020) Figure 17. Rice prices in West Africa (2014 - 2020)
East
Afr
ica
Figure 18. Dry bean prices in East Africa (2014 - 2020) Figure 19. Sorghum prices in East Africa (2014 - 2020)
Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System
market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides
prices trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all
reported prices are retail.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
____________________* imported rice
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Moundou, Chad Solenzo, Burkina FasoSegou, Segou centre, Mali Maradi, NigerKaolak, Senegal
USD/kg
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Maradi, Niger Moundou, Chad
Segou, Segou centre, Mali Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Kano, Nigeria (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Bol, Chad Malanville, Benin
Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Kano, Nigeria (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Bamako, Mali Dakar, Tilène, Senegal
Monrovia, Red Light, Liberia
USD/kg
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Kigali City, Rwanda
Eldoret, Kenya (W) Masindi, Uganda (W)
USD/kg
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Al Qadarif, Sudan Baidoa, Somalia
Kampala, Uganda (W) Juba, South Sudan
Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W)
USD/kg
*
*
PRICE WATCH ANNEX
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
East
Afr
ica
Figure 20. Maize prices in surplus areas of East Africa (2014 - 2020) Figure 21. Maize prices in deficit areas of East Africa (2013 - 2019)
Figure 24. Imported rice prices in Southern Africa (2014 - 2020)
So
uth
ern
Afr
ica
24
Figure 22. White maize prices in Southern Africa (2014 - 2020) Figure 23. Bean and cowpea prices in Southern Africa (2014 - 2020)
October 2020
Sources of prices in East Africa: Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of
Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM
Sources of prices in Southern Africa: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM)) of Tanzania,
Observatoire du Riz of Madagascar, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET.
States Government.
____________________* dry beans** cowpeas
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Lilongwe, Malawi Lusaka, Zambia
Maputo, Mozambique Mbeya, Tanzania (W)
Randfontein, South Africa
USD/kgUSD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Dodoma, Tanzania (W)
Maputo, Mozambique Nampula, Mozambique
USD/kg
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5Ju
l-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7Ju
l-1
7O
ct-1
7Ja
n-1
8A
pr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-1
9Ju
l-1
9O
ct-1
9Ja
n-2
0A
pr-
20
Jul-
20
Arusha, Tanzania (W) Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (W)Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kampala, Uganda (W)Qorioley, Somalia Songea, Tanzania (W)
USD/kg
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Jamame, SomaliaJijiga, Ethiopia Juba, South SudanNairobi, Kenya (W)
USD/kg
* *
** **
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Maputo, Mozambique Antananarivo, Madagascar
USD/kg
PRICE WATCH ANNEX October 2020
States Government.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 25
Cen
tral A
sia
Figure 29. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia (2014 - 2020) Figure 30. Wheat flour prices in Central Asia (2014 - 2020)
Cen
tral A
meri
ca a
nd
Cari
bb
ean
Figure 27. Imported rice prices in Haiti (2014 - 2020) Figure 28. Black bean prices in Haiti (2014 - 2020)
Cen
tral A
meri
ca a
nd
Cari
bb
ean
Figure 25. White maize prices in Central America (2014 - 2020) Figure 26. Dry bean prices in Central America (2014 - 2020)
**
****
*
Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria
(DGEA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion
de Guatemala (MAGA).
____________________* black beans ** red beans
Sources of prices in Central Asia: Afghanistan, WFP and FEWS NET.
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, HaitiJacmel, Haiti Jérémie, HaitiPort-au-Prince, Haiti
USD/kg
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Guatemala City, Guatemala (W) Managua, NicaraguaSan Salvador, El Salvador San Jose, Costa Rica (W)Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Guatemala City, Guatemala Managua, Nicaragua (W)
San Salvador, El Salvador Mexico City, Mexico (W)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras
USD/kg
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Cap Haïtien, Haiti Hinche, Haiti
Jacmel, Haiti Jérémie, Haiti
Port-au-Prince, Haiti
USD/kg
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Kabul, Afghanistan Lahore, Pakistan
Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan Saryagash, Kazakhstan
USD/kg
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4Ju
l-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-1
5A
pr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6Ju
l-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-1
7A
pr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8Ju
l-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-1
9A
pr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct
-19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-2
0Ju
l-2
0
Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan Kabul, Afghanistan
Faizabad, Afghanistan National Average, Tajikistan
