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Key findings from a Florida statewide survey of 600 registered voters and a statewide survey of 400

Republican primary voters conducted November 3,5-6, 2011 and January 15-17, 2012, respectively.

Florida Statewide Surveys

Bill McInturff, Partner

Lori Weigel, Partner

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Conducted November 3, 5-6, 2011.

N=600 registered voters.

Margin of error for total sample is +4.0%.

Statewide Survey

Republican Primary Voter Survey

Conducted January 15-17, 2012.

N=400 likely Republican primary voters.

Margin of error for total sample is +4.9%.

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The Political Context

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Florida voters are very negative about the direction of the state and have been for

several years.

Right Direction: 49%Wrong Track: 40%

Republican primary voters

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The economy clearly dominates concerns.

Attracting new jobs and business

Improving public schools

Improving transportation

Fighting crime and illegal drugs

Keeping taxes down

Making health care more affordable

Fighting illegal immigration

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The top issues are not dramatically different from about one year ago, although the

economy was not a top concern five years ago.2006 2010 2011

Top Two Top Two Top Two

Attracting new jobs and business 12%12% 58%58% 60%60%

Improving Public Schools 44%44% 37%37% 38%38%

Keeping Taxes down 31%31% 30%30% 25%25%

Making health care more affordable 40%40% 28%28% 29%29%*These are only the top issues.

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Attitudes About

Spending Cuts

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Health Care programs for low income families, the elderly, children, and the disabled.

Of five programs potentially on the budget chopping block, Florida voters are LEAST likely to prefer cuts made to health care programs for

low income Floridians.

State Prisons

Roads and transportation

Colleges and Universities

Schools from kindergarten through high school

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In fact, over one-quarter say they would be most opposed to cuts to these health care programs, second only to K-12 education.

Health Care programs for low income families, the elderly, children, and the disabled.

State Prisons

Roads and transportation

Colleges and Universities

Schools from kindergarten through high school

Republican primary voters

42%

28%

10%

7%

6%

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Focusing Specifically on Medicaid Cuts to Hospitals

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Even when zeroing in on the Medicaid funding for hospitals specifically, three-quarters of state

voters say it would be unacceptable to allow cuts in this area as a way to address the state budget.

60% Unacceptable/Strongly

12% Acceptable/Strongly

15% Unacceptable/ Not so strongly

11% Acceptable/ Not so strongly

2% Don’t Know/Refused

Total Acceptable 23%Total Unacceptable 75%

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Voters across the state say this is an unacceptable way to balance the budget.

Alachua

BakerBay

Bradford

Brevard

Broward

Calhoun

Charlotte

Citrus

Clay

Collier

Columbia

Dade

De Soto

Dixie

Duval

Escambia

Flagler

Franklin

Gadsden

Gilchrist

Glades

Gulf

Hamilton

Hardee

Hendry

Hernando

Highlands

Hillsborough

Holmes

Indian River

Jackson

Jefferson

Lafayette

Lake

Lee

Leon

Levy

Liberty

Madison

Manatee

Marion

Martin

Monroe

Nassau

Okaloosa

Okeechobee

Orange

Osceola

Palm Beach

Pasco

Pinellas Polk

Putnam

St Johns

St Lucie

Santa Rosa

Sarasota

SeminoleSumter

Suwannee

TaylorUnion

Volusia

Wakulla

Walton

Washington

Jacksonville23% Acceptable74% Unacceptable

Panhandle23% Acceptable75% Unacceptable

Tampa29% Acceptable70% Unacceptable

Orlando22% Acceptable76% Unacceptable

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

24% Acceptable73% Unacceptable

West Palm Beach12% Acceptable86% Unacceptable

Ft. Meyers/Naples25% Acceptable75% Unacceptable

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Majorities of every ethnic and income group also reject these proposed cuts to Medicaid.

-45% -75% -62%

By Ethnicity

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Even a majority of Republican primary voters say it is unacceptable to allow cuts in Medicaid as a

way to address the state budget.

37% Unacceptable/Strongly

17% Acceptable/Strongly

20% Unacceptable/ Not so strongly

20% Acceptable/ Not so strongly

6% Don’t Know/Refused

Total Acceptable 37%Total Unacceptable 57%

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Voters believe these kinds of cuts will personally affect them if they need health

care.% Almost Certain % Likely

19%19% 69%69%

22%22% 82%82%Will affect not just those on Medicaid but you and your family if you need hospital care

Will result in fewer nurses, cuts in vital services, and longer waits for emergency care.

Will make a significant reduction in the state budget deficit, so we can avoid raising taxes.

8%8% 52%52%

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Republican Primary Voters

Reaction to Governor Scott’s Budget Proposal

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Republican primary voters are divided regarding Governor Scott’s specific budget

proposal.Now, in a budget submitted by Governor Scott, he has proposed cutting reimbursement to state hospitals by two BILLION dollars from Florida’s Medicaid program. His proposal would use one billion dollars of these cuts from the Medicaid program to help balance the state budget and the other one billion dollars of these cuts to increase education funding. Do you favor or oppose this budget proposal?

Now, in a budget submitted by Governor Scott, he has proposed cutting reimbursement to state hospitals by two BILLION dollars from Florida’s Medicaid program. His proposal would use one billion dollars of these cuts from the Medicaid program to help balance the state budget and the other one billion dollars of these cuts to increase education funding. Do you favor or oppose this budget proposal?

Total Favor 47%Total Oppose 43%

22% Strongly

Favor

25% Strongly Oppose

18% SomewhatOppose

25% Somewhat Favor

10% Don’t Know/Refuse

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

214 N. Fayette St.Alexandria, VA 22314

Bill McInturff, Partnerbill@pos.org

703.836.7655