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Draft for Review GHD | Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Solid Waste Management Plan – Stage 2 | 057580 (18) | ii Figure Index Figure 8.1 Tipping Fee ($/tonne) and Diversion Rate (%) over Study Period under Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion) and Alternative 1 (raise tipping fees to proposed levels) ................ 30 Figure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery Under Each Scenario ...................................................................................................... 31 Figure 9.1 Five Year Diversion Implementation Schedule ............................................................... 39 Following text: Figure 1.1 Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Location Map Figure 1.2 Fort Nelson Service Area and Solid Waste Facilities Table Index Table ES.1 Implementation Schedule, Diversion Goals for Recommended Strategy ......................... iii Table 1.1 NRRM Landfill and Stewardship Program Tonnages and Diversion Rates for 2014........ 3 Table 3.1 Product Stewardship Programs and Processors for HHW and Recylables in BC .......... 13 Table 6.1 Solid Waste Management Strategy Scenarios ................................................................ 22 Table 6.2 Current and Proposed Tipping Fee Schedule for the Fort Nelson Landfill ..................... 22 Table 6.3 Cost Estimates and Diversion Initiatives and their Contribution to Overall Diversion ..... 23 Table 6.4 Solid Waste Management Scenarios and Social, Environmental, and Financial Considerations ................................................................................................................. 25 Table 8.2 Waste Composition Data ................................................................................................. 28 Table 8.3 Budget Allocation to Solid Waste Management .............................................................. 28 Table 8.5 NPV and Cost Recovery Results for Scenarios under No Cost Recovery ..................... 29 Table 8.6 Summary of Financial Modelling Results for each Waste Management Scenario and Cost Recovery Alternative ....................................................................................................... 33 Table 8.7 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Proposed Tipping Fee Structure and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 0) ................ 35 Table 8.8 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Landfill Service Hours Reduced by 50% and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 2) 36 Table 9.1 Five Year Diversion Budget ............................................................................................. 38 Table 9.2 Roles and Responsibilities .............................................................................................. 40 Following text: Table 8.1 Cash Flow Modelling Parameters Table 8.4A Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 1 (Existing System) Table 8.4B Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion) Table 8.4C Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 3 (Mandated Diversion) Table 8.4D Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Diversion) Table 8.4E Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 5 (Staged Implementation) Appendices Appendix A Stage 1 Solid Waste Management Plan
Transcript
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GHD | Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Solid Waste Management Plan – Stage 2 | 057580 (18) | ii

Figure Index Figure 8.1 Tipping Fee ($/tonne) and Diversion Rate (%) over Study Period under Scenario 2

(Flexible Diversion) and Alternative 1 (raise tipping fees to proposed levels) ................ 30

Figure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery Under Each Scenario ...................................................................................................... 31

Figure 9.1 Five Year Diversion Implementation Schedule ............................................................... 39 Following text:

Figure 1.1 Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Location Map

Figure 1.2 Fort Nelson Service Area and Solid Waste Facilities

Table Index Table ES.1 Implementation Schedule, Diversion Goals for Recommended Strategy ......................... iii

Table 1.1 NRRM Landfill and Stewardship Program Tonnages and Diversion Rates for 2014 ........ 3 Table 3.1 Product Stewardship Programs and Processors for HHW and Recylables in BC .......... 13

Table 6.1 Solid Waste Management Strategy Scenarios ................................................................ 22

Table 6.2 Current and Proposed Tipping Fee Schedule for the Fort Nelson Landfill ..................... 22

Table 6.3 Cost Estimates and Diversion Initiatives and their Contribution to Overall Diversion ..... 23

Table 6.4 Solid Waste Management Scenarios and Social, Environmental, and Financial Considerations ................................................................................................................. 25

Table 8.2 Waste Composition Data ................................................................................................. 28

Table 8.3 Budget Allocation to Solid Waste Management .............................................................. 28

Table 8.5 NPV and Cost Recovery Results for Scenarios under No Cost Recovery ..................... 29

Table 8.6 Summary of Financial Modelling Results for each Waste Management Scenario and Cost Recovery Alternative ....................................................................................................... 33

Table 8.7 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Proposed Tipping Fee Structure and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 0) ................ 35

Table 8.8 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Landfill Service Hours Reduced by 50% and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 2) 36

Table 9.1 Five Year Diversion Budget ............................................................................................. 38

Table 9.2 Roles and Responsibilities .............................................................................................. 40 Following text:

Table 8.1 Cash Flow Modelling Parameters

Table 8.4A Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 1 (Existing System)

Table 8.4B Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion)

Table 8.4C Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 3 (Mandated Diversion)

Table 8.4D Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Diversion)

Table 8.4E Cash Flow Forecast – Scenario 5 (Staged Implementation)

Appendices Appendix A Stage 1 Solid Waste Management Plan

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1. Introduction

The Northern Rockies Regional Municipality (NRRM) is undertaking an update to the Regional Solid Waste Management Plan (SWMP). SWMP's are required under the Environmental Management Act SBC 2003, c 53 as a plan for managing solid waste in regions across the Province. This Report represents Stage 2 of the SWMP and prescribes the development and implementation of the waste management system in NRRM.

The SWMP is being updated in three stages:

• Stage 1 - Review of the current waste management system

• Stage 2 - Review and evaluate waste management options to address the Region's future solid waste management needs

• Stage 3 - Formalize the SWMP and consult with the Public

This report documents the findings of the Stage 2 process and provides discussion and evaluation of the options reviewed for the updated SWMP.

The planning process and the development of this report have been done in accordance with the BC MOE document entitled "Guide to the Preparation of Regional Solid Waste Management Plans by Regional District" (BC MOE, 1994).

In May 2015, the BC MOE initiated a process to update the solid waste management planning process and guidelines, which are expected to be implemented in 2016. The updated guiding principles are as follows (BC MOE, 2015):

1. Promote zero waste approaches.

2. Promote the 3 R’s (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle).

3. Maximize beneficial use of waste materials and manage residuals appropriately.

4. Support polluter and user-pay approaches.

5. Manage tipping fees.

6. Separate organics and recyclables out of garbage wherever practical.

7. Establish and enforce disposal bans.

8. Collaborate with neighbouring regional districts wherever practical.

9. Develop collaborative partnerships with stakeholders to achieve regional targets set in plans.

10. Level playing field within regions for both private and public solid waste management facilities.

1.1 Plan Area and Population

The NRRM (Figure 1.1) encompasses an area of 85,148.89 square kilometres (km2), covering one tenth of the province, and is located in the northwestern corner of the province. This area is a heavily forested area consisting of primarily boreal white and black spruce. Due to its northern location the seasons include long, cold winters and short summers with long hours of sunlight.

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The main road through the NRRM is the Alaska Highway, Highway 97 which runs from the southeast to northwest.

According to the 2011 census, the population of NRRM in 2011 was 6,353. From 1990 to 2005 there was a 5.8 percent decrease in disposal rates per capita, despite a 31 percent population increase. Approximately 76 percent of the population of NRRM lies within the townsite of Fort Nelson, with approximately 4,800 residents.

The Fort Nelson First Nation is a community of Dene and Cree people located 7 km south of Fort Nelson. The First Nation has approximately 638 band members living both on and off the reserve.

In addition to Fort Nelson and Fort Nelson First Nation the communities located along Highway 97 within the NRRM are:

• Prophet River

• Steamboat

• Toad River

• Muncho Lake

• Liard River

• Coal River

• Fireside

The remaining NRRM population lives in rural locations, including the communities listed above, within 10 km of Highway 97.

1.2 Service Area

NRRM is responsible for waste management within the NRRM, and does not currently accept waste from out of region. The NRRM's current cart-based collection system extends only to residential areas within the boundaries of the Fort Nelson Townsite which previously had access to the opt-in, bag-and-can collection system operated by the solid waste management contractor Wide Sky Disposal Ltd. (Wide Sky) until July 2014. The Fort Nelson service area and solid waste facilities are shown in Figure 1.2 and are based on current land use zoning in the Townsite.

1.3 Current Waste Management System

GHD (formerly Conestoga-Rovers & Associates) prepared the NRRM Stage 1 Report, which is attached as Appendix A., to evaluate the current waste management system. The overall diversion rate of the system represents a key metric for implementing the recycling and waste reduction initiatives proposed in this report. Based on 2015 data from the Landfill and stewardship organizations, NRRM's current overall diversion rate is estimated as 3.24 percent (Table 1.1).

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Table 1.1 NRRM Landfill and Stewardship Program Tonnages and Diversion Rates for 2014

Program 2015 Tonnes Diversion Rate

NRRM landfill received 11,519.0 ---

White goods diverted at landfill (1) 33.0 0.28%

Scrap metal diverted at landfill to Wide Sky (1) 206.0 1.77%

Tires diverted at landfill (1,2) 14.8 0.13%

Northern Environment Action Team diverted 21.0 0.18%

MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Encorp diverted beverage containers 91.7 0.79%

LightRecycle 0.5 0.00%

ElectroRecycle 0.7 0.01%

Total (landfilled + diverted) 11,642.0 --- Total (diverted) 376.7 3.24% Notes: (1) Included in total landfill received amount (2) Assumes an average tire mass of 30 lb, and higher ratio of truck to car tires (http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/swfa/tires/)

2. Solid Waste Management Planning Process

This Stage 2 Report represents the second of a three Stage process for Solid Waste Management Planning for the NRRM, in accordance with the MOE's Environmental Management Act, SBC 2003, c 53. The following subsections outline the Solid Waste Management Planning process, including deliverables and consultation activities.

Stage 1 – Analysis of Existing System

Stage 1 involved a thorough review of the current solid waste management system, including social, environmental, and economic impacts, generation rates and diversion rates. The NRRM's Stage 1 Report is included as Appendix A and contains an assessment of the following:

• Waste composition in the NRRM by material.

• The waste collection, landfilling, and recycling operations in the Region prior to 2014.

• The financial structure of the system prior to 2014.

Stage 2 – Development of Strategies

This Stage 2 Report presents a review and evaluation of the strategies and options available to the NRRM for addressing future solid waste management requirements. Specifically, a number of collection and processing strategies are introduced and discussed (Section 3.0), as well as several other mechanisms/tools aimed at increasing diversion and reducing waste landfilling in the NRRM (Section 4.0). All of these options are comparatively evaluated in terms of social, environmental, and financial considerations (Section 6.0). Other highlights of the Stage 2 Report include:

• Contingency planning for the system and management of emergencies (Section 5.0).

• Service fees available to NRRM to recover system costs and their structure (Section 7.0).

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• Financial analysis modelling of the waste management strategies and mechanisms and the recommended strategies for implementation (Section 8.0).

• The implementation schedule for the recommended waste management strategies and mechanisms (Section 9.0).

The process for review and acceptance of the Stage 2 Report will occur over the fall of 2015 and winter of 2016 and generally consist of the following milestones, with green representing completed steps, yellow representing current status, and blue representing upcoming activities:

Prior to seeking input from the public, the NRRM must develop a Public Review and Consultation Process (PRCP) Plan, a Public Advisory Committee (PAC), and a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to lead the consultation process. The PAC is formed by NRRM staff, one or more NRRM councilors, and an industry representative. Terms of Reference (TOR) for the proposed PAC have been developed by the NRRM. The TAC is formed by NRRM staff and a NRRM councilor. The PRCP plan must be approved by the BC MOE Regional Manager. A public consultation process

Fall 2014

•Submission of Stage 1 Report to NRRM •Submission of Draft Stage 2 Report to NRRM Staff (including Stage 1 Report)

Jan Sept.

2015

•Jan: NRRM Staff review of Draft Stage 2 Report •Feb: NRRM Staff comments into revised Draft Stage 2 Report •Sept: Presentation of Draft Stage 2 Report by NRRM staff to NRRM Council

Nov. Dec.

2015

•Nov: NRRM Council comments into revised Draft Stage 2 Report •Nov: Presentation of revised Draft Stage 2 Report to NRRM Council •Nov: NRRM Council comments into revised Draft Stage 2 Report •Dec: Develop Public Review and Consultation Process (PRCP) design •Dec: Submit PRCP design to BC MOE Regional Manager

Fall 2015

•Acceptance of PRCP design by MOE Regional Manager •Establish Public and Technical Advisory Committees (PAC & TAC) to lead public consultation process

Nov. 2015 June 2016

•PAC and TAC review of Draft Stage 2 Report •Public consultation process •Public's comments into Final Stage 2 Report •Submit Draft Stage 2 Report to MOE Regional Manager

July Sept.

2016

•MOE Regional Manager review of Draft Stage 2 Report •MOE Regional Manager comments into Draft Stage 2 Report •Submit approved Final Stage 2 Report to MOE

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extended over the winter 2016 will ensure that residents have sufficient time and resources to voice their comments and concerns and have them responded to fully by NRRM staff. Additionally, the timing of this process during the peak season will offer representation to seasonal residents and workers. While the specific components and structure of the public consultation program will be determined by NRRM staff, several or all of the following items are generally included:

• Creation of a distinct brand for the SWMP initiatives and changes, including slogan and logo.

• Website presenting SWMP initiatives and changes to the existing program.

• Social media presence (i.e., Facebook, Twitter) and online advertising to further promote the SWMP and direct traffic to the website.

• Advertising in public facilities (community centre notice boards) and on billboards or other outdoor spaces.

• Mailed flyers and surveys with postage-paid return envelopes.

• Upon implementing one or more of the major 1-5 year initiatives, increased staffing of telephone services to field questions from residents.

Upon conclusion of the public consultation process, this Stage 2 Report will be updated to include NRRM and public comments and will be submitted to the BC MOE Regional Manager for review and approval.

Stage 3 – SWMP Implementation

Following submission of the Final Stage 2 Report to the MOE and its acceptance, the NRRM will implement the proposed SWMP strategies and programs and will support monitoring and evaluation activities. A Plan Monitoring Advisory Committee (PMAC) will be established to coordinate review and monitoring of the SWMP implementation and recommend corrective actions to address issues or concerns encountered during SWMP implementation. The NRRM will develop TOR to guide the PMAC's monitoring and evaluation activities, and the TOR will be reviewed and approved by the MOE Regional Manager, the PAC, and TAC prior to being issued to the PMAC and public.

Public consultations will be held throughout the SWMP implementation process, in accordance with the approved PRCP design, allowing for continuing development of the SWMP, and as needed, changes to the Stage 1 and Stage 2 SWMP Reports. Any changes required will be submitted to the MOE Regional Manager in writing as Plan Amendments, along with justification, for review and approval.

3. Potential Waste Management Strategies

Given that the Stage 1 Report (Appendix A) described the existing solid waste management system and waste characterization, this report is centered on the potential waste management strategies that may be implemented within the NRRM. Careful consideration must be given to all of the available options in terms of collection and processing (diversion and disposal) in order to set achievable goals, and to determine the best mix of strategies and technologies that will be able to meet the NRRM's needs.

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3.1 Collection

Strategies for waste collection activities fall under three categories: curbside collection, central depots or landfills for public drop-off, and backyard composters. This Section details the various alternatives that may be implemented for each category. The categories are considered to be the three ways in which collection can occur, and are thus meant to be complementary to each other and should be implemented concurrently, where appropriate, to accommodate residents and improve diversion.

Curbside Collection

A majority of municipalities in Canada today provide some form of residential curbside collection of municipal solid waste (MSW) and most also collect recyclables and organic waste on the same day. This service may be operated by the municipality or by a contracted private company, and is generally funded through utility fees, paid "bag-and-tag" stickers, or property taxes to the municipality. MSW, recyclables, and organics collected at the curbside are put out by residents in one of three containers – wheeled carts, bags, or boxes – and selecting the container type for the program is an important efficiency and cost consideration. MSW has historically been collected in bags, but many municipalities are transitioning to carts for the reduced labour requirements associated with automated cart collection. In the 2013 Collection System Review conducted for NRRM, GHD reviewed and analyzed a number of available collection systems for MSW (GHD, 2013a). Residents of the Fort Nelson Townsite previously had the option for curbside pickup under a bag-and-can system operated by Wide Sky. In 2013, Wide Sky served notice that they would discontinue the service for financial reasons. This issue was brought to NRRM Council on August 12, 2013. NRRM Council voted to implement a formal Curbside Collection program for the Fort Nelson Townsite at the following council meeting, held September 11, 2013.

The NRRM Collection System Review was conducted to evaluate various methods of curbside collection for MSW and determine the best options for implementing a collection program for the Fort Nelson Townsite only. The review included consideration of:

• Collection systems used in nearby, Northern municipalities.

• Collection systems used by other municipalities in BC and Alberta with similar geography and demographics to the townsite of Fort Nelson.

• Other commercially available collection systems.

In evaluating the above systems, the following parameters were considered:

• Capital Costs

• Operating Costs

• Level of service

• Future expansion of service

• Long term system viability

• Health and Safety

• Performance Requirements

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Automated and manual collection systems were reviewed and evaluated. In addition, key differences and pros and cons between private and in-house delivery of services was also reviewed. Based on the review of commercially available collection systems and of systems used by other municipalities, it was recommended that the NRRM move to implement a system with the following characteristics:

• Automated cart-and-arm system.

• Delivery by private contractor.

• 65 gallon carts, owned by the municipality.

• Waste collection only for the present time.

The following factors were influential in this recommendation:

• In-house system vs. Private contractor:

– Lower capital cost

– Reduced strain on public works department

– No need for in-house experience in waste collection

• Reduced health and safety risk for a cart-and-arm vs. bag-and-can system:

– Reduced heavy lifting requirements

– Reduced contact with waste

– Lower exposure to elements

• Less manpower required to implement vs. bag-and-can.

• Easily scalable in the event of future expansion or addition of recycling.

• Municipal ownership of carts allows easy tracking of service fees and eligibility.

• Meets the NRRM council's intent when deciding to implement a curbside collection system and meets the needs and requirements of Fort Nelson residents.

It was proposed that users of the curbside program meet the following requirements in order to be eligible:

• Be residential buildings with curbside access such as single family, duplex, triplex etc.

• Properties must fall within the proposed service areas.

• No commercial or industrial locations are eligible.

• No Government buildings are eligible.

• No apartment buildings, strata or trailer parks are eligible.

The following materials are not accepted under the curbside collection program:

• Appliances

• Paint

• Hazardous, flammable or explosive materials

• Bio-hazardous waste

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• Animal carcasses or remains

• Used motor oil and other petroleum products

• Construction and demolition wastes (i.e., asphalt, concrete, etc.)

• Tires

NRRM introduced the cart-based MSW curbside collection system in early July of 2014. Collection of recyclables and organics are not planned for NRRM at this time, but the collection system currently in place may accommodate future recyclable and organics collection. Given that the delivery of the collection services will be via a private contractor, NRRM may amend the contract or release a new RFP to include additional materials collection.

Like MSW, recyclables can be collected in bags, carts or boxes. Organics may be collected in carts or bags. There is also the opportunity for NRRM to participate in the Multi Materials British Columbia (MMBC) paper and packing collection incentive program, which they could "opt-in". In this case, MMBC, an industry stewardship organization, would provide funding for the NRRM or a private company (it should be noted that Wide Sky operates as an MMBC depot already) to provide curbside collection services for residents. This would offset costs for a recycling collection system that would otherwise need to be funded through utility fee, paid "bag-and-tag" sticker, or property tax means. NRRM is currently on the wait list for the MMBC program.

Commercial and Industrial Collection

Commercial and industrial waste is collected by private haulers from work camps around the NRRM, generally to support oil and gas activities and remote camps.

Central Depots and Landfills

Central depots and landfills for public drop-off are most appropriate for rural areas, due to the low population density and the distance between collection points. All waste streams may be accepted, and the costs of implementing this strategy are low and consist only of staffing the relevant sites and transferring materials from them to disposal or processing. With the NRRM implementing curbside collection of MSW only, drop-off at central depots and/or landfills for recyclables and organics is a potential solution for consideration. These items are discussed in Section 3.2 of this report.

Wide Sky operates an existing depot that accepts all residential MMBC material.

Backyard Composting

Backyard composters provide a decentralized method for managing organic wastes, but are only suitable for single family residences. The key benefit of backyard composting is the reduction in the amount of food waste (vegetables, fruits) going into the MSW stream and the amount to be processed by the municipality, in the case of source separated organics (SSO) collection. Specific to the NRRM, which currently does not collect SSO, this strategy is an attractive way to reduce the burden of MSW collection and disposal.

Since this strategy is implemented by residents and not NRRM, education on what can go in the composters, how and when to turn the material and other procedures is important. Backyard composting is discussed further in Section 3.2 of this report.

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3.2 Processing

Strategies for waste processing activities are classified based on material type: recyclables, compost, and product stewardship materials (tires, fluorescent light bulbs, packaging and printed paper (PPP)). This Section details the various processing alternatives for each material type.

Waste reduction is generally viewed as the best waste management strategy since it precludes having to manage the waste in the first place. Producing zero waste is the ultimate goal for all municipalities; although attaining this goal is highly unrealistic given the current approach towards waste by society as a whole.

In conjunction with waste reduction, diverting waste through the implementation of reuse, recycling, and composting programs can significantly extend the life of a landfill by directing waste away from disposal. The Green Municipal Fund of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities identifies the following four keys to designing a successful waste diversion program (FCM, 2009):

1. Provide convenient options

2. Educate stakeholders & promote the program

3. Introduce supportive policies & legislation

4. Establish partnerships & collaborate

As identified in the four key points above, simply implementing a SWMP is not enough to reduce the volume of waste ending up in a landfill. Successful diversion programs must be coupled with complimentary policies and regulations that enforce diversion practices, and must also include a strong educational component to both teach new habits and promote participation among residents. Section 3 further explores the policies, regulations, educational programs, and enforcement activities that need to be implemented with any successful diversion program.

There are many diversion program options - and combinations thereof - available, each with its own rate of success and associated implementation costs, and it is important that NRRM identify and implement the program most appropriate to meet their needs. The waste management and diversion programs available to NRRM when developing its overall SWMP generally include:

• Recycling

– Recycling depot

– Curbside collection

• Diversion of Organics:

– Composting depot

– Backyard composters

– Curbside organic collection

• Product Stewardship Materials

• Household Hazardous Waste (HHW):

– Drop-off depot

• Other Items (e.g., textiles, furniture, bulky items):

– Clothing bins

– Establish re-use centre

– Co-ordinate with charities

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3.2.1 Recyclables

Establishing a collection or drop-off program for recyclable materials, either through depot or curbside collection programs, would increase NRRM's diversion rate. Recyclables may consist of glass, metal, paper, and/or plastic. Generally, the two largest costs associated with recycling programs are the collection and processing of the recyclable material.

Due to its small population size and recyclable material tonnages, NRRM has a low economy of scale for handling recyclables and is also a considerable distance from recyclable material processors and markets (namely Prince George). As such, NRRM is best suited to contract this service with a private operator. While in some cases, partnering with neighbouring municipalities in order to pool diversion resources would be advantageous, GHD does not believe that this is a viable option for NRRM.

NRRM may procure the services of a private collector and processor of recyclable materials that may include the following:

• Recyclable containers (food and beverage glass bottles and jars; metal food and beverage cans; aluminum foil, foil plates and foil trays; empty and dry paint, stains and coating cans with the lids removed; #1 (PET) plastics, #2 (HDPE) plastics, #4, #5 (polypropylene), plastics other than #2 or bags; aseptic packaging such as drink boxes; polycoat containers such as milk and juice cartons)

• Recyclable papers (household paper, including junk mail, writing paper, computer paper, non-foil; gift wrap, non-foil greeting cards and envelopes; paper egg cartons; paper rolls; paper bags, other than treated bags, such as flour, sugar, potato and pet food bags; newspaper and inserts; magazine, catalogues and glossies; telephone directories; soft covered books and hard covered books)

• Recyclable cardboard and clean, un-waxed corrugated cardboard and box board

Collection of the recyclables may be on a curbside pickup basis (as in Fort Nelson) or via drop-off depots in rural areas. In order to ensure maximum participation and, in turn, higher diversion rates, it is essential that the recycling program be designed to not only target single-family homes, but also any multi-family buildings as well as industrial, commercial, and institutional sources from the start, rather than trying to engage these stakeholders later on. Generally curbside recycling programs have higher participation than depot programs and result in higher capture rates.

Recycling Depot

A recycling depot may consist of one or more large bins (depending on whether the program intends to collect single-stream or multi-stream recycling), each labelled to indicate the material(s) acceptable to deposit, where members of the public can drop off their recyclable materials. If the recycled material from NRRM will be trucked to a single-stream processing facility, it would be most efficient to implement a single-stream collection program in NRRM (i.e., one bin for all recyclables). If the recycled material will be sold to market, then separating the material (i.e., providing multiple bins for different recyclables) may be more efficient.

The capital costs associated with establishing a recycling depot are minimal, consisting essentially only of the purchase of bins - assuming municipal property (i.e., the landfill) will be used for the depot location - with additional minimal costs for signage and educating/informing residents about the program at the outset.

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An ongoing education and promotion campaign will also need to be in place to ensure sustained participation in the program. 2012 figures estimate the costs for operating a recycling depot in the rural north (in Ontario) to be approximately $649 per tonne of recyclable material as compared to approximately $540 per tonne in the rural south (WDO, 2012).

Conversely, if NRRM were to use a private depot, the costs associated with this would be limited to the procurement of a contractor and managing the selected contractor.

Curbside Recycling Program

As previously discussed, NRRM has implemented a curbside collection program in Fort Nelson focused on MSW in the short-term, with the potential to expand to curbside recycling. Curbside recycling involves the regular pick-up of recyclables from each household, either simultaneously with regular garbage pick-up, on alternating weeks, or on a separate day. Beyond the initial capital investment in household recycling bins and public education, the additional costs associated with the implementation of a curbside recycling program will depend on the collection method. If the municipality were to collect recycling on the same day as regular garbage pick-up, investment in a truck that could handle both streams would be required; however, if recycling and garbage pick-up took place on different days, the same truck could be utilized both days.

Operating costs would include weekly/bi-weekly household pick-up (salary for the truck driver) as well as transport to either a transfer station or processing facility. There would also be some additional operating costs for ongoing education and promotion campaigns to ensure sustained stakeholder participation. Participation in curbside recycling programs is generally higher than that for recycling depots, as less effort is required on the part of the residents in order to participate (i.e., more convenient). According to the Statistics Canada report Recycling by Canadian Households, 2007 (Munro, 2010), households without curbside recycling pickup were less likely to recycle (92 percent versus 98 percent) and less likely to recycle all their waste (34 percent versus 55 percent) in 2007.

Capital and Operating costs to NRRM may be limited to procurement of a private contractor and managing the selected contractor.

3.2.2 Organics

Organic waste (including leaf and yard waste) makes up about 40 percent of residential waste (FCM, 2009), therefore, diverting the organic portion (or parts thereof) of the waste stream away from the landfill would result in a significant increase in the diversion rate for NRRM. It should be noted, however, that there is the potential to utilize leaf and yard waste for daily cover at the landfill. This would then not factor in to NRRM's overall diversion rate.

Compost Depot

A compost depot may consist of one or more large bins, each labelled to indicate the material(s) acceptable to deposit, where members of the public can drop off their organic waste. The Capital costs associated with establishing a compost depot are minimal, consisting essentially only of the purchase of bins - assuming municipal property (i.e., landfill) will be used for the depot location - with additional minimal costs for signage and educating/informing residents about the program. The depot may be monitored (necessitating employment of a monitor during operating hours) or unmonitored, and will require regular collection (weekly or bi-weekly) for transfer of

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organics to either a transfer station or processing facility. Months of operation and acceptable material would need to be determined, with typical examples operating from May to October and accepting only branches, tree stumps, leaves, grass clippings, and other garden products (i.e., leaf and yard waste only).

Backyard Composters

Material acceptable for backyard composters include "greens", such as fruit and vegetable scraps, coffee grounds, grass clippings, plant trimmings, house plants, cut flowers, tea bags, and egg shells; and "browns", such as dry leaves, wood chips, sawdust, straw, and twigs. Material not acceptable for backyard composters includes fatty foods, butter, oil and salad dressing, diseased or insect - infected plants, stubborn weeds such as crab grass, dog and cat feces, weeds with mature seeds, meat, bones, and fish scraps. The capital investment associated with implementing a backyard composting program would include the purchase of backyard composters – these could also be offered to interested residents at cost, requiring no capital investment from NRRM – and public education programs. There are no operational costs to NRRM associated with backyard composting.

Curbside Organic Collection

Curbside organic collection involves the regular pick-up of organic waste from each household, either simultaneously with regular garbage pick-up or on a separate day. Beyond the initial Capital investment in household organic waste bins and public education, the additional costs associated with the implementation of a curbside organic collection program will depend on the collection method. If the municipality were to collect organic waste on the same day as regular garbage pick-up, investment in a truck that could handle both streams would be required; however, if organic waste and garbage pick-up took place on different days, the same truck could be utilized both days. Operating costs would include weekly household pick-up (salary for the truck driver) as well as transport to either a transfer station or processing facility.

Capital and Operating costs to NRRM may be limited to procurement of a private contractor and managing the selected contractor.

Wood Waste

Wood waste accounts for up to 8 percent of all waste in the NRRM, based on previous composition studies (Appendix A), and represents an easy target for increased diversion. It's seasonal and outdoor nature, as well as its lack of odour, make wood waste easy to collect and stockpile separately from other waste streams. Processing generally consists of stockpiling, and grinding, after which the wood chips may be used by the NRRM for landscaping projects or sold to residents and businesses for similar purposes. Wood waste received at the landfill can be stockpiled on a gravel pad to allow sufficient drainage, and a grinder may be rented and operated intermittently as sufficient quantities are stored.

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3.2.3 Product Stewardship Materials and Household Hazardous Waste (HHW)

Product Stewardship programs are another avenue for consideration when developing this SWMP. Stewardship programs for HHW and recyclables are increasing within BC and will continue to do so in the coming years. In accordance with the BC Recycling Regulation, mandatory waste management programs have been established for the numerous categories of products, as shown in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Product Stewardship Programs and Processors for HHW and Recylables in BC

Stewardship Material Processor

Smoke and CO Alarms AlarmRecycle

Antifreeze, lubricating oil, oil filters, oil containers British Columbia Used Oil Management Association

Consumer and industrial lead-acid batteries Canadian Battery Association

Rechargeable batteries, non-rechargeable batteries (alkaline, UPS and lithium) and cell phones

Call2Recycle

Electronic products (major producers and retailers) Electronic Products Recycling Association (not-for-profit operating under the brand Return-It™ Electronics)

Small electronic products, such as microwaves, vacuum cleaners and electric toothbrushes

ElectroRecycle

Non-alcohol beverage containers Encorp Pacific Canada

Lighting products, from lamps to flashlights to light bulbs (includes residential, institutional, commercial and industrial sectors)

LightRecycle

Leftover medicines Post-Consumer Pharmaceutical Stewardship Association

Electrical outdoor power equipment Outdoor Power Equipment Institute of Canada

Flammable liquids, paint, domestic pesticide and gasoline

Product Care

Old thermostats Switch the 'Stat

Mobile handsets, accessories, and wireline telecommunication equipment

TELUS Return and Recycle Program

Scrap tires Tire Stewardship BC

Printed paper and packaging materials MMBC

Currently in the NRRM, recyclables are accepted at the Wide Sky depot.

The education factor with respect to the product stewardship programs is key to ensuring residents are aware of the programs and utilize them to the greatest extent possible. Establishing and maintaining the stewardship collection depots or drop-off areas is also crucial to ensuring increased participation occurs.

House Hold Hazardous Waste (HHW) Drop-off Depot

A HHW drop-off depot would have the same general concept as a recycling depot in that residents could drop their HHW off at an established depot location during regular operating hours, but, given the potential danger associated with handling and accumulating large volumes of HHW, HHW drop-off depots are not able to operate entirely under the same "self-service" model. Once at the

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depot, rather than sorting the HHW themselves, residents would hand it over to the depot attendant who would then sort it into the appropriate bins.

The capital costs associated with establishing a HHW depot are minimal, consisting essentially only of the purchase of bins - assuming municipal property will be used for the depot location - with additional minimal costs for signage and educating/informing residents about the program at the outset.

As mentioned, the depot would need to be staffed by an attendant during operating hours. As HHW does not make up a large portion of NRRM's waste stream, the depot would not need to be open more than one or two days per week. To avoid accumulating large volumes of HHW, the depot would require regular collection (i.e., bi-weekly or monthly) for transport of HHW to transfer stations or processing facilities. An ongoing education and promotion campaign will also need to be in place to ensure sustained participation in the program.

Beyond the minimized risk to the environment associated with diverting HHW from landfill, the main benefit of operating an HHW drop-off depot is that residents are able to properly dispose of their HHW as they generate it.

Capital and operating costs to NRRM may be limited to procurement of a private contractor and managing the selected contractor.

3.2.4 Other Items

Beyond those materials that make up the majority of the existing waste stream in NRRM, there are also other, less-frequently disposed of items that could be diverted from the landfill. These include items such as clothing (including shoes) and other textiles, furniture, and bulky objects (such as refrigerators, couches, washing machines, etc.). Keeping these materials out of landfills means prolonging their functional lives through reuse. Reuse can be encouraged through providing clothing donation bins, establishing a reuse centre, and/or coordinating with charities.

Clothing Bins

Clothing bins are self-serve drop-off locations for discarding used, clean and non-damaged garments for use by someone else. As these bins are generally operated by charity organizations, beyond providing space in NRRM for the siting of a clothing donation bin, there would be no operational or maintenance costs incurred by NRRM.

Establish Share Shed at Landfill

Share Sheds may accept any number of household items, either in working condition or repairable, for trading and giveaway to the public. While much of this material may eventually end up in a landfill, by reusing – either directly or following repair/refurbishing – its journey to landfill will take longer and will result in a reduced volume of waste being disposed of annually. The most suitable location for a Free Store would be within the drop-off area past the scale house. Capital costs would consist of constructing the Share Shed building, shed, or shelter and some promotional costs to raise awareness of its launch. As existing landfill operations staff could manage and oversee the Store, there would be no operating costs.

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Coordinate with Charities

Should a household have a large volume of material to donate for reuse, in certain circumstances it may be most efficient to coordinate directly with a charity organization for pick-up. While this sort of arrangement would not be coordinated through NRRM, information and contact coordinates could be provided in literature and educational material provided by NRRM to facilitate use of these programs.

4. Other Mechanisms

Other mechanisms to manage solid waste build on and compliment the primary collection and processing alternatives identified in Section 3.0. These mechanisms have proven effective in other municipalities, and their suitability for NRRM and level of implementation will be determined through public engagement, trials, and consultations.

4.1 Reduction and Reuse Programs

Reduction and reuse programs act as the first step in waste diversion and are generally considered the most favourable approaches in the solid waste management hierarchy (EPA, 2013). The intent of these programs is to prevent recyclable material from entering the collection and processing systems in the first place, and can amount to considerable cost and energy savings resulting from reduced system loads.

As a management approach, reduction is the absolute first in priority, but is the most difficult to implement, as it rests mostly with residents to act upon. As such, actions from the NRRM for this approach should focus on education and outreach (Section 3.6). With the right message, residents can learn of the benefits to waste reduction in the home and the multitude of ways in which it can be accomplished conveniently and without cost.

Reuse programs for consumer food and beverage products are generally modeled on the deposit system, in which consumers pay a deposit on containers and get a refund when they return them, creating a financial incentive to participate. Returned containers are then cleaned and re-introduced into the manufacturing cycle of the food or beverage product. Reuse programs have been highly effective in the beverage and alcohol container industries across Canada. BC's Return It program, operated by Encorp, accepts plastic metal, and wax paper beverage, milk and alcohol containers at a number of licensed locations across the province. In NRRM, this location is the Wide Sky depot in Fort Nelson.

Other reuse programs that should be considered in waste management planning are informal trades, sales, and giveaways between people, whether through thrift stores, yard sales, classifieds, or among friends and family. These transactions tend to occur for higher value items, otherwise known as durable goods (electronics, furniture, and appliances), as wells as books, music, or other multimedia. Planning for and tracking this informal part of the waste management system is difficult, but broad indicators may be determined through discussions with classifieds publishers and thrift stores. This reuse mechanism is independent from the NRRM's waste management system and is thus functionally cost-free and low-risk for the region to support. NRRM should include it as part of the education and outreach campaigns (Section 4.5) to increase awareness and bolster diversion goals for durable goods.

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4.2 Fees and Bans

Landfill bans on recyclable materials and organics can be implemented as a hard line approach to prevent disposal of these materials, but for the bans to work there must be existing alternate processing options. Thus, the implementation of any landfill bans should be done in conjunction with the start-up of recycling and/or organics collection programs and processing capacity in the NRRM. Bans can be set to a range of severity and onset schedules, based on the diversion goals of the NRRM. For example, the amount of recyclable or organic materials allowed for disposal (threshold) may be lowered incrementally over a time period. To prevent processing capacity issues when a ban is first implemented, the ban should allow for a surcharge to be paid for tonnages above the threshold being disposed.

Landfill bans are a contemporary approach to diversion and are quickly gaining traction among North American governments and even in the Lower Mainland. Examples of upcoming landfill bans in BC include the organics bans in Metro Vancouver and Victoria. In NRRM, a cardboard ban may be implemented as a longer term option to ensure that this material is diverted. The implementation of this initiative is discussed in detail in Section 9.0. A less strict approach to diverting recyclables and organics than landfill bans involves increases in tipping fees at disposal facilities. Similar to the surcharges that may be applied in an outright ban, a per tonne fee in excess of standard tipping fees may be charged for these materials, creating a financial incentive to divert them. As with the landfill ban, this requires existing infrastructure to divert and process the material.

4.3 Multi-Family

While apartments only make up 23 percent of all dwellings in Fort Nelson (NRRM, 2014), they must be evaluated separately for waste collection as they tend to have lower participation and diversion rates. The lower success seen in multi-family residences is generally due to the greater separation between household (i.e., apartment unit) and collection container, often requiring residents to bring waste and recyclables down elevators or stairs, and creating an inconvenience barrier. Data from other studies suggests that diversion in multi-family can be up to 40 percent lower than for single-family homes (City of Toronto, 2008; Metro Vancouver, 2011). Effective education on how to, where, and when to recycle, and the benefits of doing so, is key to combating the lower diversion rates associated with multi-family residences. Education and outreach are further discussed in Section 3.6.

In addition to education, the NRRM should ensure that the appropriate collection strategies (Section 2.1) are available to building owners/managers. It is common for municipalities to leave collection services up to the individual building owner/manager to subscribe and pay for, while still requiring that they have some level of collection. NRRM may leave actual collection to private companies such as Wide Sky or Tervita, but it should require that all multi-family buildings have these services.

4.4 Partnerships

Partnerships with other companies, organizations, and communities must be considered and will strengthen the system and support increased diversion. A key part of collaboration with these entities is communication of the overall waste system aspects and objectives, and a clear understanding of how the partnership may support diversion aims. From a community perspective, an important partnership that should be developed is with the Fort Nelson and Prophet River First Nations communities in the NRRM. While these communities operate their own waste collection,

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recycling, and disposal services, they may benefit from access to the wider NRRM programs, and specific strategies within the systems may be joined to maximize diversion and reduce costs to each party. Collaboration with First Nations should be a continually evolving effort, with regular communication and participation in meetings and events.

Participation in the MMBC paper and packing collection incentive program, starting in 2018, will provide increased financial support for diverting these materials and will strengthen the incentive to collect and process them. Leading up to 2018, communication with MMBC on the progress of and ongoing challenges in waste management will allow participation in the MMBC program to be focused to the particular areas that require the greatest attention in diversion.

A key part of the waste management system consists of contracting activities out to private companies. Beyond these contracts, partnerships can be created for promotional and outreach purposes during advertising campaigns or public events. The most likely form of a partnership would be with a company sponsoring a public event aimed at promoting reuse, recycling, or composting. This would help residents understand the system and put names to those involved in managing waste, further encouraging participation and endorsement by residents.

4.5 Education and Outreach

Successful education and outreach for solid waste management programs must convince residents that the benefits of recycling and other waste diversion strategies far outweigh any additional costs and inconveniences. Such programs can take on a number of forms, ranging from public events to internet websites, but any that are chosen must share the aim of positively educating residents and changing their habits. NRRM has a small and dispersed population and thus requires unique approaches to informing and engaging residents. The traditional big city solutions, such as billboards, transit advertisements, and flyers, are not suitable for NRRM and can be discounted in planning. While the population is dispersed, the internet has created a means for instant access to information, regardless of location and mobility, and should be the focal point of NRRM's education and outreach efforts. Internet-based solutions that should be considered are:

• A dedicated website for NRRM's diversion programs and goals.

• Participation and accounts with social media websites such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube.

• Online advertising with regional newspapers and the NRRM website.

• FAQ and Question and Answer functionality on NRRM websites.

Other cities in BC have created aesthetically pleasing and informative websites for solid waste management, designed to highlight the benefits of diversion and the programs available to residents, in clear and simple ways. Examples include:

• Metro Vancouver's Organics Disposal Ban and Bylaw 280 websites.

• Capital Regional District's Holiday Recycling campaign.

• The Regional District of Nanaimo and City of Nanaimo's Recycling 2014 program changes.

Numerous barriers will need to be addressed with respect to implementing a diversion program, namely the "4 C's": communication, cost, convenience, and compliance. The best way to overcome these barriers is to keep project messaging simple and to communicate and engage with the

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residents in a direct and personal manner. Public education programs should be centered around removing the "4 C's" barriers by demonstrating the "3 E's" – that participation is equitable (as in not too costly), easy (make participation as convenient as possible) and engaging (provide some reward or return for participants). Generally, people make rational, well informed decisions that are in their own best interest. Implementing methods that encourage and fosters participation are an absolute requirement of any diversion program in order to increase participation.

Well in advance of rolling out a program, it will be important for NRRM to distribute literature – via newsletters, announcements in the local paper, on the NRRM website, etc. – informing residents about the principals of re-use, recovery and recycling; the diversion program to be implemented; and what will be expected of them.

As noted above, in addition to informing residents, it is vital that a public education program also consult, involve, and collaborate with residents to obtain feedback, ensure their interests are understood and considered, and get their buy-in as partners in NRRM's diversion program. This could be achieved through hosting interactive workshops to provide hands on

demonstrations to describe specific diversion programs in more detail and allow residents to participate and ask questions and/or setting up educational and promotional booths at community events. Should a curbside collection program be established, the municipality will need to coordinate the distribution of household bins, accompanying which should be simple instructions that can be put on residents' fridges or other prominent place in the home to serve as a constant reminder and source of confirmation for residents as to which materials should be placed into which bins.

Each public education event should have a specific strategic target, such as teaching residents which materials are accepted by the blue box program (upon initial roll-out of the diversion program); increasing awareness and encouraging participation through in-classroom projects at local schools; promoting specific programs at key points of the year (e.g., promotion of backyard composting in late winter and early spring); or encouraging the adoption of waste reduction behaviours (e.g., choosing to purchase products with less packaging).

Monitoring and evaluation should be components of the public education strategy, to allow NRRM to adjust programming in response to performance, resident feedback, changes in materials collected or common contamination issues.

Key to the success of whatever diversion program NRRM chooses to implement is that the accompanying public education program be designed to meet the specific needs and perception levels of its residents, and that education remain a priority throughout the life of the diversion program.

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4.6 Other Sectors

Fort Nelson is the largest town in the NRRM and acts as the commercial, institutional, and industrial hub of the region, with a population of 4,800. These organizations contract private companies and are not a part of NRRM's waste management system, but should be considered for education and outreach programs as they employ a large portion of the town. Waste diversion strategies at the workplace are equally as important as those at home, and NRRM can partner with organizations to bring harmonized approaches into the workplace (recycling container types, separation guidelines, battery collection containers, etc.), to create a seamless experience for people at home and at work and minimize confusion on program guidelines (accepted items, sorting, etc.). The following subsection lists the major commercial, institutional, and industrial organizations in Fort Nelson that NRRM may collaborate with on waste diversion strategies.

4.6.1 Industrial, Commercial and Institutional Sectors

Fort Nelson, referred to as the Shale Gas Capital of Canada, has a strong presence of Canadian and international oil and gas companies. Other industries in the area, including construction, transportation, and equipment rentals, generally support the oil and gas sector in the Region. The commercial sector in Fort Nelson is much like that in other small towns and consists of a variety of retail stores, restaurants, and services. Institutions in the Town of Fort Nelson consist of the Fort Nelson Hospital, Northern Lights College, and School District 81 (Fort Nelson), which has five schools in the area.

Addressing these sectors are critical to the success of the overall waste management strategy, namely, cost recovery and establishing mandatory diversion. The following are some potential strategies that may be implemented for the IC&I sector to recover costs as well as increase overall diversion rates:

• Landfill bans on certain materials (i.e., cardboard).

• Increased tipping fees for waste dropped off at the NRRM Landfill that includes recyclable material. This may encourage source separated recyclables and increase diversion of this material from the landfill.

• Mandatory recycling by-law for IC&I buildings, warehouses, etc. that would ensure each IC&I business and/or building would contract recycling services to meet their needs and the requirements of the by-law.

5. Contingency Planning and Emergency Management

Having well planned and administered contingency measures on hand in the case of emergencies or other unforeseen circumstances will ensure that shocks or disruptions to the system are mitigated. The people responsible, in order of hierarchy, for contingency planning and emergency management for solid waste management in the NRRM consist of:

• Chief Administrative Officer (CAO)

• Deputy CAO and Director of Public Works

• Public Works Operations Admin Manager

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• Public Works Manager

• Public Works Assistant

• Sustainability and Solid Waste Reduction Coordinator

Possible emergencies or circumstances that would disrupt collection or processing activities may include: adverse weather conditions, labour disruptions or reduced staff, processing facility shut-downs, or equipment and vehicle malfunctions. The most appropriate measures and response will depend on whether these events impact collection or processing.

Disruptions to collection and processing can be effectively mitigated or resolved through implementing some or all of the following preventative measures and contingency planning:

• Ensure that there is back-up vehicle and labour capacity in the event of shortages of either.

• Have agreement(s) in place with alternate contractors for collection, in the event that the primary contracted company cannot perform the required services.

• Have agreement(s) in place with alternate processing contractors, municipalities, or facilities, in the event that the primary sites become unavailable.

• Establish contract terms with collection and processing companies to ensure that contingency measures and emergency response actions are agreed upon and defined.

In the event that emergencies or other unforeseen circumstances do occur, the following actions may be taken:

• Procure the services of alternate contractors or municipalities for collection and/or processing, as required.

• Direct residents to drop-off waste and recycling at operating sites, if a disruption to collection cannot be resolved through back-up capacity, negotiations, or alternate contractors, in a timely manner.

Contingency Procedures for Scrap Metal Stockpiling

Scrap metal requires complete and long term management and storage, as recycling markets are located long distances from Fort Nelson. Currently, Wide Sky operates a depot for scrap metal drop-off, sorting, and storage prior to off-Site recycling. Any change to this agreement or disruptions to Wide Sky's scrap metal services would require that the NRRM manage scrap metal generated in the Region until restoration of Wide Sky's services. To ensure that scrap metal accepted at the Fort Nelson Landfill would be handled and sorted safely, the following contingency measures can be taken:

• A minimum 5-acre parcel of land on the Fort Nelson Landfill Site may be designated and marked in Site maps, plans, and manuals stored on Site and in NRRM offices.

• One or more 20 cubic yard steel bins should be designated for scrap metal disposal among landfill operations staff. In the event that scrap metals are brought to the Landfill, staff should empty the designated bins and locate them to existing drop-off or staging areas.

• A set of procedures and safety controls, referencing the two measures above, should be developed by the NRRM and stored on-Site.

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• Training should be conducted to educate landfill staff on the procedures and safety controls developed.

• Arrangements with alternate contractors should be in place in the event that scrap metal cannot be safely or effectively managed at the landfill.

6. Comparison of Waste Management Strategies

Based on the preceding sections, five waste management strategy Scenarios were developed for comparative evaluation, each consisting of numerous diversion strategies as shown in Table 6.1. The strategies presented focus on individual materials and waste streams, and several may thus be implemented concurrently to address the whole system. The four Scenarios, from left to right in Table 6.1 represent increasing diversion potential for the NRRM. A fifth Scenario, representing staged implementation from Scenarios 2 to 4 in 5 year increments, was also analyzed. Along with increased management complexity of implementing more diversion strategies comes increased capital and operating costs. The following summarizes the aspects of each Scenario envisioned:

• Scenario 1: Continued use of the existing system would not require any new investment by the NRRM, but would do little to increase diversion beyond the current 3.24 percent rate.

• Scenario 2: Flexible diversion would see the implementation of several new programs: installing recycling and cardboard bins at the landfill, wood waste separation and grinding, implementing a Share Shed at the landfill, conducting a HHW round-up day, and implementing a curbside blue box program.

• Scenario 3: Mandated diversion would introduce a mandatory recycling by-law for residents and businesses, a commercial cardboard recycling program in tandem with a landfill cardboard ban, and the installation of a HHW depot at the landfill to support the existing HHW landfill ban. Commercial cardboard would be baled at the landfill and shipped to market in Prince George.

• Scenario 4: Comprehensive diversion would introduce a curbside source separated organics (SSO) collection program and the installation of a compost pad at the landfill.

• Scenario 5: Staged implementation of Scenarios 2 to 4 with the following milestones

– Years 1-5: Flexible diversion initiatives (Scenario 2)

– Years 6-10: Mandated diversion initiatives (Scenario 3)

– Years 11-25: Comprehensive diversion initiatives (Scenario 4)

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Table 6.1 Solid Waste Management Strategy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Existing System

Scenario 2: Flexible Diversion

Scenario 3: Mandated Diversion

Scenario 4: Comprehensive Diversion

Curbside collection of MSW in the Townsite of Fort Nelson Private MSW collection for residents in rural areas and the oil and gas sector

Private recycling depot Updated tipping fees (Table ES.2)

97%

to L

andf

ill ---

-----

--->

Recycling bins at landfill and encourage recycling for residents

Separate wood waste from landfill and grind for landfill cover and landscaping Implement a Share Shed at the landfill

HHW round-up day Curbside blue box collection program

Organics composting pad at landfill and organics public drop-off

54%

to L

andf

ill >

Curbside organics collection program Mandatory recycling by-law

Commercial cardboard recycling and baling Ban cardboard from landfill

Implement a HHW depot at the landfill

46%

to

Land

fill >

Ban organics from landfill

<43%

-->

to L

andf

ill

Tipping fees would be updated to the amounts shown in Table 6.2 for all scenarios in 2017. The balance between higher diversion and the associated cost impact to the NRRM has been evaluated in the Financial Analysis model (Section 8.0).

Table 6.2 Current and Proposed Tipping Fee Schedule for the Fort Nelson Landfill

Material Category Current Fee Proposed Baseline Fee

Unit Amount Received (2014)

Mixed waste - small loads (<200 kg)

$5 $10 /load Included in large load tonnage.

Commercial small loads $10 $10 /load Mixed waste - large loads (>200 kg)

$40 $50 /tonne 11,519

Mixed waste – out of region N/A $150 /tonne Clean wood waste (3" diameter and lower)

N/A $0 /tonne

Clean wood waste (>3" diameter) N/A $100 /tonne Sorted C&D waste N/A $50 /tonne Mixed C&D waste $100 $200 /each Vehicle hulks $2 $20 /each Vehicle and light truck tires $4 $20 /each Large tires $25 $40 /each Appliances containing ozone depleting substances

$0 $500 + Mixed Waste Tipping Fee

/event 5

Asbestos minimum disposal charge

$0 $20 /each 500

Residential bulky items (mattresses, couches, etc.)

N/A $500 /each

Note: (1) Proposed Baseline Fee indicates base value, before any increases are made to compensate for increased diversion under the implementation scenarios.

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Table 6.3 presents the anticipated diversion rate associated with each diversion initiative, as well as their estimated capital and operating costs, with assumptions and references indicated. The diversion estimates shown were developed through an analysis of potential contribution each initiative would have on the overall diversion rate in the NRRM, based on composition data (Table 8.2) and the relative influence anticipated for each strategy.

The maximum target diversion rate that could be achieved under each category, assuming the implementation of all scenarios, was determined from data under an 81 percent provincial recovery scenario for the province of BC, contained in a report titled "Zero Waste Business Case: Draft for Expert Review" prepared for the BC Environmental Standards Branch (Hood, 2013).

Capital and operating costs were developed from GHD's experiences in BC and other sources, as noted. The diversion rates and costs associated with each initiative were then totaled to generate the diversion estimates and total costs for each Scenario. In cash flow modeling, it was assumed that reaching the target weighted diversion rate for each scenario would occur over a ramp up period of 5 years.

While the targeted diversion rate under the 81 percent provincial recovery rate scenario represents the best case for the initiatives in the NRRM, it is likely that actual diversion would be lower. Utilizing data under a 62 percent recovery from the same report (Hood, 2013); forecasted diversion rates were applied in the modelling as better representative of the actual performance of the initiatives, for conservative purposes.

Table 6.3 Cost Estimates and Diversion Initiatives and their Contribution to Overall Diversion

Initiative Target Diversion Rate

Capital Cost Operation Cost

Cost Note Cost Note

Recycling bins at landfill and encourage recycling for residents.

5% $100,000 Construct 2 additional bin bays.

$3,500 For bin servicing by Wide Sky.

Conduct waste audits at landfill scale house and at Wide Sky.

0% $20,880 Waste audits conducted at start (2017) and end (2021) of five year implementation period.

$0 No operating costs for waste audits.

Separate wood waste from landfill and grind.

2% $10,000 Gravel pad and cover for wood storage.

$50,000 Annual tub grinder rental and operation.

Implement a Share Shed at the landfill.

2% $100,000 Construct Share Shed structure.

$0 None. Within landfill operations.

HHW round-up day. 1% $5,000 Transfer bins and promotional materials.

$30,000 Hazardous waste contractor and 2 NRRM staff, waste removal.

Curbside blue box collection program.

12% $12,000 Blue box supply cost of $10 per box per household, including shipping.

$150,000 Equal to the current costs of MSW collection (total collection costs are doubled).

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Table 6.3 Cost Estimates and Diversion Initiatives and their Contribution to Overall Diversion

Initiative Target Diversion Rate

Capital Cost Operation Cost

Cost Note Cost Note

Install an organics compost pad at the landfill

3% $1,019,000 • Compost facility at landfill.

• Cart supply cost of $250 per cart per household for bear proof carts, including shipping.

$200,000 • Turning operations, removal of leachate off-Site.

• Assume organics and garbage are collected on alternating weeks to minimize collection costs.

Curbside organics collection program

22% $275,000 Cart supply cost of $250 per cart per household for bear proof carts, including shipping.

$0 Assume organics and garbage are collected on alternating weeks to minimize collection costs.

Mandatory recycling by-law.

1% $5,000 By-law amendment.

$2,000 Additional enforcement operations.

Commercial Cardboard Recycling and Baling.

5% $150,000 Purchase of new baler, including 3-phase power connection.

$20,600 • Operation of baler. • Collection not

included (paid for by companies).

• Operation of 10 hours per week at $30/hr.

• $5,000 per year for baler maintenance.

• Assumes off-site shipping offset by resale price.

Ban cardboard from landfill.

1% $5,000 By-law amendment.

$0 None.

HHW depot at the landfill.

1% $50,000 Construct and install HHW shelters.

$0 Annual removal with round-up day.

Ban organics from landfill.

3% $5,000 By-law amendment.

$0 None.

Total 58% $1,735,000 $456,100

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Table 6.4 provides a summary of the evaluation of each of the Scenarios from social, environmental, and financial considerations.

Table 6.4 Solid Waste Management Scenarios and Social, Environmental, and Financial Considerations

Scenario Social Environmental Financial

Scenario 1 – Existing System

• Limits the engagement and involvement of sectors in responsible solid waste management.

• Minimal diversion achieved.

• Large dependence on landfill (GHG emissions remain the same).

• Minimal capital costs. • Low annual operating cost.

Scenario 2 – Flexible Diversion

• Increases the engagement and involvement of a majority of sectors in responsible solid waste management.

• Moderate diversion achieved.

• Less dependence on landfill reduction (GHG emissions remain the same).

• Slightly increased GHG emissions from trucking.

• Low capital costs. • Low annual operating cost. • Slightly shifts costs from

landfilling to diversion. • Slightly less tipping fees

collected.

Scenario 3 – Mandated Diversion

• Increases the engagement and involvement of a majority of sectors in responsible solid waste management.

• Moderate diversion achieved.

• Minimal dependence on landfill (GHG emissions decrease).

• Increased GHG emissions from trucking.

• Moderate capital costs. • Moderate annual operating

cost. • Shifts costs from landfilling

to diversion. • Less tipping fees collected.

Scenario 4 – Comprehensive Diversion

• Increases the engagement and involvement of the most sectors in responsible solid waste management.

• Support for local economic development.

• Minimal dependence on landfill (significant GHG emission reductions due to increase in organics diversion).

• Significantly increased GHG emissions from trucking.

• Maximum diversion achieved.

• Higher capital costs. • High annual operating cost. • Significantly shifts costs from

landfilling to diversion. • Significantly less tipping fees

collected.

Scenario 5 – Staged Implementation

• Balance of Scenarios 2-4 above over time.

• Balance of Scenarios 2-4 above over time.

• Balance of Scenarios 2-4 above over time.

7. Service Fees and Revenue Structure The NRRM has identified a strategic objective of obtaining full cost recovery in funding the proposed waste management strategies identified in Section 6.0, in which capital and operating costs associated with the programs are offset through revenues generated in service provision. There are three types of revenue available to the NRRM's system for cost recovery, which are presented in order of favourability:

1. Tipping fees levied at the landfill and collection depot(s)

2. Service fees levied at each household for collection

3. Contributions from general tax revenue

Each of these revenue streams are discussed in detail in the following subsections.

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7.1 Tipping Fees

Tipping fees at the landfill and collection depot(s) for waste and non-recyclable goods (i.e., large bulky items, asbestos) can be considered the preferred form of revenue for NRRM from a diversion standpoint, as they provide a financial disincentive for landfilling and have a dynamic role in diversion rates. As diversion increases under the implementation of one or more waste management strategies, the amount of waste received for landfilling is expected to decrease, with a corresponding decrease in tipping fee revenues for NRRM. To balance this shortfall, there are two options available: increase tipping fee rates for the waste that is landfilled, or increase the subsidy from general revenues. The dynamic between tipping fees and diversion rates is a key consideration to evaluating the options available, as will be further discussed in Section 7.0.

Table 6.2 presents the NRRM's current tipping fees for material categories, and the proposed ones that would be brought in as baseline values under the implementation of the waste management strategies. Only those material categories with known quantities were included in financial modeling (highlighted blue).

7.2 Curbside Collection Service Fees

Service fees for curbside household waste and recycling collection are more predictable than tipping fees, as they are not inversely related to diversion but are instead dependent on the number of households. Considering the rapid population growth rate of the NRRM and the corresponding increase in the number of occupied households that is anticipated, this means that service fee revenues will see steady, sustained increases over years, as new households are brought into the system. With the current collection service fee at $200 per household and an estimated 1,200 households participating as of 2014 this stream represents a significant portion of total revenues in the system, and will serve to provide consistent revenue under the implementation of any of the waste management strategies identified.

7.3 General Tax Revenue Contribution

The least favourable revenue stream available to fund the waste management system is the general tax revenue pool. Much like curbside collection fees levied on households, property taxes are highly predictable and tied to population and household numbers, not waste. Directing money from the general income pool to waste management system operations will reduce the funding available to another municipal service, and considering this constraint, it could be considered a last resort. However, general income is generated from all property designations, including commercial and industrial sites, and as such, has a far broader reach than tipping or services fees, extending well beyond Fort Nelson into all facility locations in the NRRM.

8. Financial Analysis

8.1 Financial Modeling Overview

Financial modeling was conducted to estimate system costs under each of the Waste Management Scenarios and for a range of cost recovery alternatives, whereby the NRRM can fund system capital and operating costs through levying higher user fees and budgeting from general revenues. Cash flow net present value (NPV) and cost recovery, as well as overall diversion rates and landfill tipping fees, were calculated for a series of waste management scenarios and cost recovery

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alternatives, the results of which were comparatively assessed to determine the most cost effective diversion structure available to NRRM. A 25-year implementation period (Study Period) was applied to the model to represent the long-term progression of diversion initiatives.

Sensitivity analysis on key input parameters was performed to model the impact of changes such as costs, diversion rates, and tipping fees.

Separate cash flow analyses were conducted for each of the Waste Management Strategy Scenarios presented in Section 6.

As identified in Section 7, cost recovery is an important budgeting consideration, and there are several options available to NRRM to minimize general revenue contributions to the system while maximizing diversion. To assess these options, a series of cost recovery alternatives were assessed under each Waste Management Strategy Scenario, as follows:

• Alternative 0: tipping fees are raised to the levels proposed (Table 6.2) and service hours are unchanged.

• Alternative 1: tipping fees for large loads of mixed waste (Table 6.2) are raised to match system costs.

• Alternative 2: service hours are reduced to match system revenues, to a minimum of 50 percent of current service hours.

• Alternative 3: service hours are reduced by 25 percent and tipping fees for large loads of mixed waste are raised to match system revenues and costs.

• Alternative 4: service is reduced to 6 days per week (closed Sundays) and tipping fees are raised to match system revenues and costs.

• Alternative 5: tipping fees for large loads of mixed waste are changed such that revenues equal approximately 50 percent of system costs, with the remaining 50 percent covered by general revenue.

8.2 Inputs and Assumptions

Table 8.1 (following the report text) presents a full list of the input parameters and assumptions for the model, based on current system operation and budget estimates. The following key inputs are noted:

• The landfill is currently open and operating 48 hours per week, 52 weeks per year, including holiday closures. An equivalent hourly landfill operation cost of $216 was assumed to apply.

• There are 1,100 households currently receiving curbside collection with an annual user fee of $200 per household.

• The NRRM’s current system diversion rate is 3.24 percent (Table 1.1).

• Inflation was assumed to remain constant at 2 percent annually, and a 5 percent discount rate (nominal) was assumed.

• The analysis was conducted over a 25 year Study Period.

• A population growth rate of 22 percent was observed over a 21 year period (1990-2011), as reported in Statistics Canada's 2011 census by BC Stats, which translates to an annual growth rate of 1 percent. This growth rate was equated to growth in the number of households and waste generation in the NRRM for simplicity.

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Table 8.2 below presents the composition data for the NRRM waste stream, based on averaged values for the province, as reported in the Stage 1 Report (GHD, 2013b). For simplicity, non-landfilled (diverted) materials were sorted into the following three categories, representing the broader targets of diversion initiatives: recyclables (containers and fibers), organics, and household hazardous waste (HHW) and durable goods (i.e., electronics, tools). In addition to the reported average values, low and high range estimates were made and analyzed to assess sensitivity of the strategies to composition.

Table 8.2 Waste Composition Data

Material Low Reported High

Organics 35% 40% 45%

Paper 12% 17% 22%

Plastic 8% 13% 18%

Multi-material 3% 8% 13%

Textiles & rubber 1% 6% 11%

Other 0% 5% 10%

Wood 0% 3% 8%

Ferrous 0% 3% 8%

Glass 0% 1% 5%

Renovation 0% 2% 5%

Non-ferrous 0% 1% 5%

Hazardous waste 0% 0% 5%

Note: Blue text indicates materials under the recyclables category Green text indicates materials under the organics category Red text indicates materials under the HHW/durable goods category Paper consists of: 26.1% newsprint, 36.6% mixed paper, 37.3% cardboard (Hood, 2013)

Table 8.3 below presents the NRRM's 2015 budget allocation for landfill and collection system operations. The total system cost represents the baseline cost in the modeling, with additional capital and operating costs incurred under each of the Waste Management Strategy Scenarios, specific to the diversion initiatives applicable to each. The anticipated capital and operating costs associated with each diversion initiative under each Scenario were previously presented in Table 6.4, along with justification for the estimates.

Table 8.3 Budget Allocation to Solid Waste Management

Budget Item Annual Budgeted Amount

Landfill Planning Engineering services $50,000

Landfill Operations Engineering services $13,000

Professional services $35,000

Contract services $540,000

Total $588,000

Landfill Expansion

New 60,000 m3 cells (1) $245,500

Cell construction frequency 2-3 years with current disposal rates.

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Table 8.3 Budget Allocation to Solid Waste Management

Budget Item Annual Budgeted Amount

Landfill Closure

Professional services $37,000

Contract services $63,000

Rural Collections (2)

Contract services $170,000

Curbside Waste Collections (2)

Contract services $150,000

Diversion

Contract services $0

Total $1,891,500 Notes:

(1) Cells 1-4 assumed to be constructed prior to 2016, so capital costs for these cells are not included. Based on the cell 4

construction cost of $245,000 and a capacity of 29,000 tonnes of waste per cell.

(2) Curbside bins assumed to have a 10 year life, starting from 2014. Purchase cost of $130,000 for 1,100 carts.

8.3 Model Results and Discussion

Tables 8.4A to 8.4E (following the report text) present the anticipated cash flows for each Waste Management Strategy Scenario (1 through 5, respectively) over the Study Period. Within each table, separate cash flows are presented under each Cost Recovery Alternative, indicating the tipping fee and level of service structures that result in breakeven (zero) NPV values. Table 8.5 below presents the NPVs of the Strategy Scenarios with no cost recovery considered (i.e., general revenue makes up for funding shortfall).

Table 8.5 NPV and Cost Recovery Results for Scenarios under No Cost Recovery

Waste Management Strategy Scenario 25 Year NPV of Costs Cost Recovery (%)

Scenario 1 – Existing System $4,920,000 78%

Scenario 2 – Flexible Diversion $15,400,000 49%

Scenario 3 – Mandated Diversion $18,660,000 38%

Scenario 4 – Comprehensive Diversion $18,960,000 37%

Scenario 5 – Staged Implementation $16,530,000 42%

Key findings of the modeling with respect to system costs under each of the Scenarios (Table 8.5) include:

• The contribution from general revenue to fund the system increases as the number of diversion initiatives implemented increases due to reduced tipping fee revenues.

• Diversion initiative costs include additional facilities, staff, and collection operations, as well as by-law changes.

• Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion) has the lowest NPV of all increased diversion Scenarios (Scenarios 2-5).

The five cost recovery alternatives modelled present different means for funding the waste management scenarios. The discussion is centered on the results from Scenarios 1-4, as Scenario 5 represents a combination of Scenarios 2-4 and is not directly comparable to the others.

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Using general revenue for the entire cost of system changes (otherwise seen as zero cost recovery) is not a realistic expectation for the NRRM, as current tipping fees are low by provincial standards and a balance between increased diversion and fair tipping fees is desired. Aspects of the NRRM's current system and cost recovery rates are highlighted for context:

• The NRRM's current waste management system funding recovers 67 percent of costs through tipping fees at their current rate of $40/tonne for large loads (>200 kg) of mixed waste and curbside fees. Continuation of these fees would require annual general revenue contributions of $400,000.

• To generate 100 percent cost recovery under Scenario 1, the mixed waste large load tipping fee would need to be raised to $72/tonne in 2017, with the other tipping fees raised to the levels proposed in Table 6.2.

• If all tipping fees were raised to the level proposed in Table 6.2 in 2016, then 78 percent cost recovery would be achieved, and the annual general revenue contribution would be approximately $280,000.

As indicated in Section 6.1, there is a direct relationship between diversion rate and tipping fees (only the fee for large loads of mixed waste changes), as increased diversion will cause reduced waste landfilling and will drive increased tipping fees to balance the cash flow. Figure 8.1 below illustrates the estimated tipping fees and diversion rate for the NRRM under Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion) and Alternative 5 (use 50 percent general revenue and 50 percent tipping fees to match costs). As shown, tipping fees would need to be changed annually to match increasing costs. The higher tipping fees observed every 2-3 years represent the capital costs incurred in these years from constructing new cells to expand the landfill. Continuously revising tipping fees is not a realistic expectation for the NRRM, due to logistical and political factors. Due to the dynamic nature between tipping fees and diversion, maintaining the 50 percent general revenue to 50 percent tipping fee ratio is not considered realistic.

Figure 8.1 Tipping Fee ($/tonne) and Diversion Rate (%) over Study Period under Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion) and Alternative 1 (raise tipping fees to proposed levels)

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The trend of increased costs over time is observed for all Cost Recovery Alternatives under all Scenarios, and represents the financial commitments required to administer the Solid Waste Management Plan. Table 8.6 presents the detailed results of the financial modeling for each Scenario and Alternative, including diversion rate, NPV of the system costs, cost recovery percentage, and maximum tipping fees.

Additional key findings of the modeling with respect to tipping fees and diversion under each of the Scenarios (Table 8.6) include:

• Higher diversion rates would theoretically require higher tipping fees to balance lower tipping fee revenue. This trend is further illustrated in Figure 8.2 below, which shows the tipping fees that result in breakeven (NPV of $0) system costs under Alternative 0. However, raising tipping fees continually to catch up with costs is not a realistic expectation, as further discussed in Section 8.4.

• Where tipping fees are not raised, general revenues would make up the balance.

• Service hours at the landfill may be reduced to lower costs, but only to a certain degree, and under higher diversion scenarios, this is not enough to offset lost tipping fee revenue and additional diversion costs.

• Landfill expansion capital costs for new cell construction will be incurred under all Scenarios, but with higher diversion rates, the construction of new cells can be postponed by 1-2 years.

• Raising curbside collection fees from the current $200 per household was not evaluated.

• While this was not modelled, under higher diversion scenarios, service hours could be reduced modestly, as less waste would need landfilling.

Figure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery Under Each Scenario

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In general, a higher target diversion rate will require higher tipping fees to be levied. This is seen in Cost Recovery Alternatives 1, 3, 4, and 5, as they all consist of raising tipping fees to fully or partially match system costs (Table 8.6). The high tipping fees, while partly driven up by inflation over the 25 year study period, also represent the significant investments required in the system in the coming years, regardless of what diversion initiatives are presented. Even if no diversion initiatives were implemented (Scenario 1), the current system would still carry an average annual general revenue contribution of approximately $280,000, and funding this with tipping fees alone (Alternative 1) would require tipping fees to be raised above $72 in 2017, and would still need to be raised even if service hours are reduced (Alternatives 3 and 4). Under any of the diversion programs where initiatives are implemented immediately (Scenarios 2-4), tipping fees would be raised above $200 with Cost Recovery Alternatives 3 and 4. With staged implementation (Scenario 5), tipping fees would be raised above $78 in either Alternative 3 or 4, as initiatives are implemented more gradually over time and not all immediately in 2017.

In contrast, the alternatives with little to no raise in tipping fees would require investment from NRRM's general revenues. With current system funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 0), tipping fees would not be raised beyond the proposed levels (Table 6.2) and the system costs would be fully funded through general revenues, hence the high NPV. Under Alternative 2, service hours at the landfill would be reduced to lower costs; however, under Scenarios 2, 3, and 4, costs would already be higher than revenues even with no landfill operating costs. For a realistic analysis, service hours were reduced to 50 percent of their current amount, and the rest of the system costs would have to be covered by general revenues. Under Alternative 5, tipping fees would be raised to cover 50 percent of system costs, with the rest covered from general revenues.

Raising curbside collection fees from the current $200 per household was not evaluated as a cost recovery tool in the model, as doing so would likely be unpopular with residents, considering that they are mandatory. Additionally, as highlighted in Section 6.2, the curbside fee is only levied on residential properties in Fort Nelson, and not commercial or industrial, representing a significant portion not captured; whereas taxes for general revenues are levied on all property types. Although curbside collection fees were left at the current default of $200, they will grow as a revenue stream for the system over the study period from household growth.

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Table 8.6 Summary of Financial Modelling Results for each Waste Management Scenario and Cost Recovery Alternative

Scenario Target Diversion Rate

Cost Recovery Alternative Alt 0 Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 Alt 5 ↑ tipping fees to proposed, (Table 6.2), no change to service hours

↑ tipping fees to match costs

↓ service hours to lower costs(1)

↓ service hours 25% and ↑ tipping fees to match costs

No service on Sunday(2) and ↑ tipping fees to match costs

Target 50% general revenue and 50% fees to match costs(3)

1 – Existing System 3.24% 25 Year NPV of Costs $4,920,000 $0 $1,170,000 $0 $0 $8,090,000 Avg. Annual General Revenue Cost $280,000 $0 $70,000 $0 $0 $460,000 Cost Recovery Through Fees (%) 78% 100% 94% 100% 100% 62% 2017 Mixed Waste Tipping Fee $51 $72 $51 $60 $68 $36 2 - Flexible Diversion 25% 25 Year NPV of Costs $15,400,000 $0 $10,630,000 $0 $0 $12,280,000 Avg. Annual General Revenue Cost $860,000 $0 $590,000 $0 $0 $690,000 Cost Recovery Through Fees (%) 49% 100% 59% 100% 100% 59% 2017 Mixed Waste Tipping Fee $51 $239 $51 $226 $235 $119 3 - Mandated Diversion 54% 25 Year NPV of Costs $18,660,000 $0 $13,900,000 $0 $0 $12,460,000 Avg. Annual General Revenue Cost $1,040,000 $0 $770,000 $0 $0 $700,000 Cost Recovery Through Fees (%) 38% 100% 46% 100% 100% 59% 2017 Mixed Waste Tipping Fee $51 $307 $51 $293 $302 $153 4 – Comprehensive Diversion 58% 25 Year NPV of Costs $18,960,000 $0 $14,190,000 $0 $0 $12,350,000 Avg. Annual General Revenue Cost $1,060,000 $0 $790,000 $0 $0 $690,000 Cost Recovery Through Fees (%) 37% 100% 45% 100% 100% 59% 2017 Mixed Waste Tipping Fee $51 $309 $51 $296 $305 $154 5 – Staged Implementation 58% 25 Year NPV of Costs $16,530,000 $0 $11,790,000 $0 $0 $11,580,000 Avg. Annual General Revenue Cost $960,000 $0 $690,000 $0 $0 $670,000 Cost Recovery Through Fees (%) 42% 100% 51% 100% 100% 59% 2017 Mixed Waste Tipping Fee $51 $91 $51 $78 $87 $45 Notes: (1) Under scenarios where all costs except LF operation already exceed revenues, service was reduced to 50% of current service hours as minimum, with the rest made up by general revenue. (2) The landfill currently operates from 1:00-5:00 pm on Sundays (4 hours). (3) The 50/50 target applies to year 5 tipping fees, which are assumed to stay constant for years 6-25. The proposed tipping fees in Table 6.2 are assumed to represent the lower limit, and tipping fees under any scenario applied to maintain the 50/50 target would not be lower than these proposed fees.

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8.4 Recommended Waste Management Strategy and Cost Recovery Mechanism

The ultimate objective with respect to solid waste management planning for the NRRM is the selection of a strategy (Scenario) that will maximize diversion combined with a Cost Recovery Alternative that will minimize overall costs, thus representing the best value for the community's taxpayers while making a positive impact in environmental stewardship. Consistent with municipalities across Canada, the NRRM is seeking to actively pursue higher waste diversion goals, and this cannot be done under the existing diversion rate of 3.24 percent. The following summarizes the recommended combination of waste management strategy and cost recovery mechanism:

• Of the diversion strategy Scenarios evaluated, Staged Implementation (Scenario 5), consisting of Flexible Diversion (Scenario 2) in years 1-5, represents the most viable short term option. It has the lowest NPV of all diversion Scenarios (under zero cost recovery), and has a modest goal of reaching 25 percent diversion in the first five years.

• While the target diversion rate represents the best case scenario for waste diversion assuming an 81 percent provincial recovery rate of all wastes (Hood, 2013), it is more likely that lower diversion rates would be achieved, due to public participation, collection efficiencies, and other factors. Assuming a 62 percent provincial recovery rate (Hood, 2013), a more realistic diversion rate of 11 percent in the first five years was estimated.

• Mandated Diversion (Scenario 3) would follow in years 6-10, with the aim of raising the diversion rate to 54 percent.

• Raise tipping fees to the proposed baseline fee schedule presented in Table 6.2 in 2016.

• Funding the system through general revenues (Cost Recovery Alternative 0) buffers against lower tipping fee revenues associated with increased diversion.

Under these conditions, the general revenues contribution to fund the system over 25 years is approximately $16.5 million, with cost recovery at an average 42 percent. This translates to an average annual general revenue contribution of approximately $960,000. While other Alternatives produced 100 percent cost recovery, they would require tipping fees to be raised or service hours to be cut considerably, which may not be popular with residents and businesses that use the landfill. To illustrate the budgetary requirements associated with the diversion initiatives over the first two stages of implementation, Table 8.7 and Table 8.8 present the estimated NRRM budget commitments to the waste management system, including the diversion initiatives, for two of the Cost Recovery Alternatives:

• Table 8.7: The recommended Cost Recovery Alternative 5, in which funding is evenly split between general revenues and tipping fees at the Landfill.

• Table 8.8: An alternate funding option is presented for comparative purposes. While the NRRM has indicated that cuts to service hours are not currently envisioned for the landfill, such a change would represent an opportunity for cost savings that would reduce the burden of funding coming from general revenues. This alternative funding option is represented as Cost Recovery Alternative 2, and under this alternative, service hours would be reduced from the current operation of 48 hours per week to 50 percent of that.

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Table 8.7 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Proposed Tipping Fee Structure and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 0)

Budget Item 2016 (1) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (1) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Capital Costs Landfill Closure Planning

$100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000

Landfill Expansion (2) $0 $0 $245,500 $0 $0 $245,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $245,500 Curbside MSW Cart Replacement (3)

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $141,345 $0 $0

Professional Services

$50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000

Diversion Capital Costs

$0 $125,880 $110,000 $0 $1,030,000 $20,880 $280,000 $0 $155,000 $0 $50,000

Annual Costs Landfill Operations Contractor

$540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000 $540,000

Administration and Professional Services

$48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000

Rural & Curbside Collection Contractors (4)

$320,000 $321,636 $323,273 $324,909 $326,545 $328,182 $329,818 $331,455 $333,091 $334,864 $336,636

Diversion Operations $0 $33,500 $83,500 $83,500 $433,500 $433,500 $435,500 $435,500 $456,100 $456,100 $456,100 Revenue Tipping Fees $594,813 $575,791 $556,314 $536,376 $515,971 $495,130 $463,284 $430,734 $397,471 $363,511 $328,815 Curbside Fees (4) $220,000 $222,400 $224,800 $227,200 $229,600 $232,000 $234,400 $236,800 $239,200 $241,800 $244,400 Total Cost $1,058,000 $1,219,016 $1,500,273 $1,146,409 $2,528,045 $1,766,062 $1,783,318 $1,504,955 $1,823,536 $1,528,964 $1,826,236 Total Revenues $814,813 $798,191 $781,114 $763,576 $745,571 $727,130 $697,684 $667,534 $636,671 $605,311 $573,215 Difference (General Revenue)

$243,187 $420,826 $719,159 $382,833 $1,782,474 $1,038,932 $1,085,634 $837,421 $1,186,866 $923,652 $1,253,021

Net Annual Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Forecasted Diversion Rate(5)

3.24% 5% 6% 8% 10% 11% 14% 18% 21% 24% 27%

Target Diversion Rate(6)

3.24% 7% 12% 16% 20% 25% 31% 37% 42% 48% 54%

Notes: (1) Represents capital cost spending year for subsequent 5 year diversion initiative period. (2) Landfill expansion consists of new cell construction every 2-3 years based on current landfill disposal rates. (3) Based on a 2013 purchase cost of $130,000 for 1,100 carts, adjusted for the number in households in 2023. (4) Annual increase tied to household growth. (5) Based on data from Hood (2013), under a 62% recovery scenario. Represents a more conservative estimate of the actual diversion rate achieved. (6) Based on data from Hood (2013), under a 81% recovery scenario. Represents an optimistic estimate of the potential maximum diversion rate achieved.

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Table 8.8 10 Year Solid Waste Budget for Staged Implementation (Scenario 5) with Landfill Service Hours Reduced by 50% and General Revenue Funding (Cost Recovery Alternative 2)

Budget Item 2016 (1) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (1) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Capital Costs Landfill Closure Planning

$100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000

Landfill Expansion (2) $0 $0 $245,500 $0 $0 $245,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $245,500 Curbside MSW Cart Replacement (3)

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $141,345 $0 $0

Professional Services $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 Diversion Capital Costs $0 $125,880 $110,000 $0 $1,030,000 $20,880 $280,000 $0 $155,000 $0 $50,000 Annual Costs Landfill Operations Contractor

$296,813 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000 $270,000

Administration and Professional Services

$48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000 $48,000

Rural & Curbside Collection Contractors(4)

$320,000 $321,636 $323,273 $324,909 $326,545 $328,182 $329,818 $331,455 $333,091 $334,864 $336,636

Diversion Operations $0 $33,500 $83,500 $83,500 $433,500 $433,500 $435,500 $435,500 $456,100 $456,100 $456,100 Revenue Tipping Fees $594,813 $575,791 $556,314 $536,376 $515,971 $495,130 $463,284 $430,734 $397,471 $363,511 $328,815 Curbside Fees (4) $220,000 $222,400 $224,800 $227,200 $229,600 $232,000 $234,400 $236,800 $239,200 $241,800 $244,400 Total Cost $814,813 $949,016 $1,230,273 $876,409 $2,258,045 $1,496,062 $1,513,318 $1,234,955 $1,553,536 $1,258,964 $1,556,236 Total Revenues $814,813 $798,191 $781,114 $763,576 $745,571 $727,130 $697,684 $667,534 $636,671 $605,311 $573,215 Difference (General Revenue)

$0 $150,826 $449,159 $112,833 $1,512,474 $768,932 $815,634 $567,421 $916,866 $653,652 $983,021

Net Annual Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Forecasted Diversion Rate(5)

3.24% 5% 6% 8% 10% 11% 14% 18% 21% 24% 27%

Target Diversion Rate(5)

3.24% 7% 12% 16% 20% 25% 31% 37% 42% 48% 54%

Notes: (1) Represents capital cost spending year for subsequent 5 year diversion initiative period. (2) Landfill expansion consists of new cell construction every 2-3 years based on current landfill disposal rates. (3) Based on a 2013 purchase cost of $130,000 for 1,100 carts, adjusted for the number in households in 2023. (4) Annual increase tied to household growth. (5) Based on data from Hood (2013), under a 62% recovery scenario. Represents a more conservative estimate of the actual diversion rate achieved. (6) Based on data from Hood (2013), under a 81% recovery scenario. Represents an optimistic estimate of the potential maximum diversion rate achieved.

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As shown in the 10 year budgets (Table 8.7 and Table 8.8), the required general revenue contribution under either Cost Recovery Alternative increases each year, which represents the lower tipping fee revenues being generated due to lower waste volumes entering the landfill. This is attributed to increased diversion under the initiatives implemented. One way to offset the decline in tipping fee revenues over time is to reduce the landfill service hours, which could generate significant annual savings in the form of reduced general revenue contributions. While the model assumes that service hours would be reduced fully in year 0 (2016) and kept at those levels thereafter, a gradual reduction could be performed to lessen the inconvenience and scheduling impact to residents and the community.

Flexible Diversion represents a low risk strategy for the NRRM to pursue in a relatively short time frame. It can significantly raise diversion and gradually introduce residents to the new environmental programs, without imposing drastic, complex, or imposing changes on them. During the first 5 years of the Flexible Diversion program, a reevaluation of the system is recommended. At this time, the transitioning towards Mandated Diversion for years 6 to 10 is recommended, as per the Staged Implementation strategy. Many of the costs for Mandated Diversion implementation would already have been covered in the first 5 years under the Flexible system, and the transition would be a natural progression to a higher diversion target of 30 percent. For years 11 to 25, it is recommended that the NRRM consider implementing the remaining diversion initiatives under the Comprehensive Diversion system, which would raise the diversion target to 56 percent.

While all proposed diversion initiatives would increase waste diversion from landfill, completely implementing all diversion programs at once would significantly raise operational costs and would create operational challenges. A staged approach represents the best value for the NRRM, and will generate the same degree of environmental stewardship, on a progressive basis. In general, residents are more likely to adopt programs if they are brought in slowly, are clear, and are convenient.

8.5 Servicing of Rural Communities

The cost of additional servicing for rural communities such as Toad River, beyond what is currently offered, was not assessed at this time as further outreach to residents is required before developing cost estimates. Currently, bins for waste are located in the community and are emptied as required. To promote diversion, additional recycling bins could be provided for a certain number of designated days on a bi-annual basis. An education program would be required to inform residents of the change. Prior to implementation, it is recommended that NRRM conduct a pilot project in Toad River with segregated bins for waste and recycling. This could be conducted within the short term (1-5 year) timeframe, and the estimated costs for the pilot are estimated to be as follows (Wide Sky, 2014):

• Education campaign (flyer and outreach event): $5,000

• Bin rental and four servicing events per year: $11,500

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8.6 Implementation of Short Term (1-5 Year) Initiatives

Staged Implementation (Scenario 5), consisting of Flexible Diversion (Scenario 2) in years 1-5, represents short-term options that could be implemented in the next 1-5 years and have the greatest potential to quickly increase diversion without requiring major investment, as previously shown in Table 6.3. These include the following:

• Recycling bins at the landfill and encourage recycling for residents.

• Conduct waste audits at the landfill scale house and Wide Sky during the first (2017) and fifth (2021) years of program implementation.

• Separate wood waste from landfill and grind.

• Implement a Share Shed at the landfill.

• HHW round-up day.

• Curbside blue box recycling collection program.

• Install organics compost pad at the landfill.

9. Five Year Implementation Plan

9.1 Budget

The 5 year diversion initiatives represent the Flexible Diversion phase within the overall Staged Implementation Plan for the NRRM’s solid waste management system. Table 9.1 summarizes the five year budget costs for these initiatives, which will form a portion of the overall projected solid waste management budget (Table 8.7).

Table 9.1 Five Year Diversion Budget

Diversion Initiative 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Capital Costs Raise tipping fees (Table 6.2) at Fort Nelson Landfill

Recycling bins at landfill and encourage recycling for residents.

$100,000

Conduct waste audits at the landfill scale house and Wide Sky

$20,880 $20,880

Separate wood waste from landfill and grind.

$10,000

Implement a Share Shed at the landfill.

$100,000

HHW round-up day. $5,000 Curbside blue box collection program.

$11,000

Install an organics compost pad at the landfill and organics public drop-off

$1,019,000

Total Diversion Capital Costs $0 $125,880 $110,000 $0 $1,030,000 $20,880 Annual Costs Raise tipping fees (Table 6.2) at Fort Nelson Landfill

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Recycling bins at landfill and $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500

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Diversion Initiative 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Raise tipping fees (Table 6.2) at Fort Nelson Landfill.

Recycling bins at landfill and encourage recycling for residents.

Conduct waste audits at landfill scale house and at Wide Sky.

Separate wood waste from landfill and grind.

Implement a Share Shed at the landfill.

HHW round-up day.

Curbside blue box program.

Organics compost pad at landfill and organics public drop-off.

Milestone

Development / pilot lead time (flexible)

Active Implementation

Notes:

Table 9.1 Five Year Diversion Budget

Diversion Initiative 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 encourage recycling for residents. Conduct waste audits at the landfill scale house and Wide Sky

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Separate wood waste from landfill and grind.

$50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000

Implement a Share Shed at the landfill.

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0

HHW round-up day. $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 $30,000 Curbside blue box collection program.

$150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000

Install an organics compost pad at the landfill and organics public drop-off

$200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000

Total Diversion Annual Costs $0 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 $433,500 Forecasted Diversion Rate 3.24% 5% 6% 8% 10% 11% Target Diversion Rate 3.24% 7% 12% 16% 20% 25%

9.2 Schedule

Following public consultation and MOE approval of the SWMP, the NRRM can begin the process of raising tipping fees at the Fort Nelson Landfill to the levels prescribed in Table 6.2. The proposed scheduled for implementation of the five year initiatives is shown in Figure 9.1 below.

Figure 9.1 Five Year Diversion Implementation Schedule

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9.3 Roles and Responsibilities

The NRRM personnel identified in Table 9.2 will ensure that each of the diversion initiatives are developed and implemented according to the proposed schedule:

Table 9.2 Roles and Responsibilities

Person or Group Role Responsibility

Scott Barry NRRM Deputy Chief Administrative Officer and Director of Public Works

Overall management of the system; reporting to NRRM Council and the PAC/TAC.

Lou-Ann Watson NRRM Public Works Operations Administrative Manager

Oversight of the system and implementation progress; reporting to NRRM Council and the PAC/TAC.

Jacquie Biblow NRRM Sustainability & Solid Waste Reduction Coordinator

Development and implementation lead for diversion initiatives; oversight and progress tracking; reporting to NRRM Council and the PAC/TAC.

Kris Haugen NRRM Landfill Operations Development, implementation and oversight of landfill-related diversion initiatives.

10. References

BC Ministry of Environment (MOE). 2015. Solid Waste Management Planning Guideline: Information Update – Intentions Paper. http://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/waste-management/garbage/garbage/swmp-intentions-paper-final.pdf (accessed November 18, 2015).

BC Statistics (BC Stats). 2014. Population Estimates for Fort Nelson Local Health Area-1990-2013. http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/PopulationEstimates.aspx (accessed August 29, 2014).

City of Toronto. 2008. City of Toronto Waste Audits, Presented to Residual Waste Working Group. Presentation by Irene Ford, February 11, 2008.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM). 2009. Green Municipal Fund, Getting to 50 percent and Beyond: Waste Diversion Success Stories from Canadian Municipalities. http://www.fcm.ca/Documents/tools/GMF/Getting_to_50_percent_en.pdf (accessed November 18, 2015).

GHD (formerly Conestoga-Rovers & Associates). 2013a. Collection Systems Review Report.

GHD (formerly Conestoga-Rovers & Associates). 2013b. Solid Waste Management Plan – Stage 1 Report.

Hood, Innes. 2013. Zero Waste Business Case: Draft for Expert Review. http://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/waste-management/zero-waste/zero-waste/zero_waste_business_case_draft.pdf (accessed November 17, 2015).

Metro Vancouver. 2011. "Zero Waste Challenge: Accelerating Multi-Family Waste Diversion". http://www.metrovancouver.org/region/dialogues/Reports percent20and percent20Issue percent20Summary percent20Notes/Multi-FamilyWaste-CNE-Summary20110329.pdf (accessed May 20, 2014).

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Munro, A. 2010. Environment Accounts and Statistics Analytical and Technical Paper Series, Recycling by Canadian Households, 2007. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-001-m/16-001-m2010013-eng.pdf (accessed November 18, 2015).

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality (NRRM). 2012. "Housing". http://www.northernrockies.ca/EN/main/residents/housing.html (accessed May 20, 2014).

Waste Diversion Ontario (WDO). 2012. 2012 Blue Box Financial Summary Report. http://wdo.ca/files/6513/8610/0703/2012_Blue_Box_Financial_Summary.pdf (accessed September 23, 2014).

Wide Sky Disposal Ltd. 2014. Cardboard Recycling and Remote MMBC Recycling Quotes.

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Source: ERSI, 2011.Landfill Centres provided by Northern Rockies RegionalMunicipality (NRRM), 2011

Northern RockiesRegional Municipality

Solid Waste ManagementPlan - Stage 2 Report

Figure 1.1

057580-27(018)GIS-OT001 November 09, 2015

Coordinate System: NAD 1983 UTM Zone 10N

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Date: November 09, 2015

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FORT NELSON SERVICE AREA AND SOLID WASTE FACILITIESSOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT PLAN - STAGE 2 REPORT

FORT NELSON, BRITISH COLUMBIANorthern Rockies Regional Municipality

057580-27(018)GIS-OT002 November 09, 2015

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Table 8.1

Cash Flow Modeling Parameters Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 1

GHD 057580 (18)

Item Value Note / Assumption

Landfill OperationOperating hours per week 48 hours/week; open dailyOperating weeks per year 52 weeks/year; closed on 11 holidays in the yearLandfill operating cost per hour $216 per hour

Residential CollectionNumber of households 1,100 currently served by collection servicesUser fee per household $200 per household per year

Commercial Cardboard CollectionCardboard fraction in waste stream 4.25%Amount of cardboard 489.6 tonnes/yearNumber of small businesses 600 Based on 2011 censusAnnual rental cost per bin $1,740 /bin/year ($145 per month)Baling and shipping cost per tonne $507 /tonne

Waste Quantities Received at Landfill (2014)Mixed waste - large loads 11,519 tonnes/yearAsbestos disposal 5 events/year; no change from diversionMattresses and couches 500 number/year; no change from diversionCumulative waste in landfill (2003-2014) 143,720 tonnes

Diversion Rate (2014)System diversion rate 3.24%

Baseline Tipping Fees (2015)Mixed waste - small loads $10 $/loadMixed waste - large loads $50 $/tonneAsbestos disposal $500 $/eventMattresses and couches $20 $/number

Cash Flow ParametersAnnual population growth rate 1% Based on a 31% increase in residents from 1990

to 2005, as reported by BC Stats.

Inflation rate 2% Bank of Canada target rateNominal discount rate 5% Common public sector discount rateReal discount rate 3% Inflation adjusted discount rate

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Table 8.4A

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 1 (Existing System)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $569,812.62 -$243,187.38 -$243,187.38 77% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $575,593.32 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $822,993.32 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $1,059,636 $587,105.19 -$236,643.04 -$241,375.90 78% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $581,422.40 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $831,222.40 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,306,773 $604,911.86 -$475,550.33 -$494,762.56 64% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $587,299.86 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $839,499.86 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $1,062,909 $623,247.31 -$223,409.23 -$237,083.66 79% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $593,225.71 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $847,825.71 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,310,045 $642,126.58 -$462,219.75 -$500,321.52 65% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $599,248.31 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $856,248.31 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $1,066,182 $661,618.56 -$209,933.51 -$231,783.55 80% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $605,319.30 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $864,719.30 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $1,067,818 $681,687.85 -$203,098.88 -$228,722.32 81% $562023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $611,438.67 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $873,238.67 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,314,955 $702,350.84 -$441,715.87 -$507,392.69 66% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $617,606.43 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $881,806.43 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,212,436 $723,624.37 -$330,629.93 -$387,385.66 73% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $623,870.95 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $890,670.95 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,318,364 $745,583.53 -$427,692.69 -$511,132.35 68% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $630,183.85 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $899,583.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $1,074,636 $768,190.59 -$175,052.52 -$213,388.04 84% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $636,545.13 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $908,545.13 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $1,076,409 $791,463.86 -$167,863.96 -$208,717.74 84% $622028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $642,954.79 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $917,554.79 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,323,682 $815,422.14 -$406,127.03 -$515,067.27 69% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $649,461.22 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $926,661.22 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $1,079,955 $840,147.34 -$153,293.32 -$198,301.26 86% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $656,016.03 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $935,816.03 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,327,227 $865,599.22 -$391,411.24 -$516,458.82 71% $662031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $662,619.22 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $945,019.22 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $1,083,500 $891,798.23 -$138,480.78 -$186,376.89 87% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $669,319.18 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $954,319.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,330,773 $918,831.80 -$376,453.55 -$516,790.05 72% $692033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $676,087.52 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $963,887.52 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $1,087,182 $946,685.75 -$123,294.30 -$172,641.79 89% $702034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $682,952.62 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $973,552.62 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,491,536 $975,424.52 -$517,983.74 -$739,808.34 65% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $689,866.11 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $983,266.11 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $1,091,000 $1,005,004.65 -$107,733.89 -$156,947.94 90% $732036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $696,827.97 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $993,027.97 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,338,409 $1,035,449.71 -$345,381.12 -$513,218.17 74% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $703,886.60 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,002,886.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $1,094,818 $1,066,857.23 -$91,931.58 -$139,337.60 92% $762038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $710,993.61 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,012,793.61 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,342,227 $1,099,181.67 -$329,433.66 -$509,297.74 75% $782039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $718,197.39 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,022,797.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $1,098,636 $1,132,524.94 -$75,838.97 -$119,590.42 93% $792040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $725,449.55 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,033,049.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,346,182 $1,166,840.08 -$313,132.27 -$503,653.60 77% $812041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $732,798.47 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,043,398.47 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $1,102,727 $1,202,233.57 -$59,328.80 -$97,335.18 95% $83

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$4,915,512.11Average Cost Recovery: 78%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $813,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,058,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $813,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $722017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $812,236.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,059,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $1,059,636 $828,481.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $722018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $1,056,972.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,306,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,306,773 $1,099,674.43 $0.00 $0.00 100% $962019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $810,709.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,062,909.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $1,062,909 $860,330.97 $0.00 $0.00 100% $742020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $1,055,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,310,045.45 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,310,045 $1,142,448.10 $0.00 $0.00 100% $972021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $809,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,066,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $1,066,182 $893,402.11 $0.00 $0.00 100% $752022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $808,418.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,067,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $1,067,818 $910,410.18 $0.00 $0.00 100% $762023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $1,053,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,314,954.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,314,955 $1,209,743.53 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1002024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $948,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,212,436.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,212,436 $1,111,010.03 $0.00 $0.00 100% $912025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $1,051,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,318,363.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,318,364 $1,256,715.89 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1022026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $805,236.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,074,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $1,074,636 $981,578.63 $0.00 $0.00 100% $782027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $804,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,076,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $1,076,409 $1,000,181.60 $0.00 $0.00 100% $792028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $1,049,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,323,681.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,323,682 $1,330,489.41 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1052029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $802,754.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,079,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $1,079,955 $1,038,448.60 $0.00 $0.00 100% $812030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $1,047,427.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,327,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,327,227 $1,382,058.04 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1072031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $801,100.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,083,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $1,083,500 $1,078,175.13 $0.00 $0.00 100% $822032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $1,045,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,330,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,330,773 $1,435,621.85 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1092033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $799,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,087,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $1,087,182 $1,119,327.53 $0.00 $0.00 100% $842034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $1,200,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,491,536.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,491,536 $1,715,232.85 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1272035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $797,600.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,091,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $1,091,000 $1,161,952.59 $0.00 $0.00 100% $852036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $1,042,209.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,338,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,338,409 $1,548,667.88 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1122037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $795,818.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,094,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $1,094,818 $1,206,194.83 $0.00 $0.00 100% $862038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $1,040,427.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,342,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,342,227 $1,608,479.41 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1142039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $794,036.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,098,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $1,098,636 $1,252,115.36 $0.00 $0.00 100% $882040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $1,038,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,346,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,346,182 $1,670,493.68 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1172041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $792,127.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,102,727.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $1,102,727 $1,299,568.75 $0.00 $0.00 100% $90

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Landfilled

Diversion (contract)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Total Costs

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Revenues Capital Costs Operating CostsCurbside

Collections (contract)(5)

Landfill Expansion

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)

Asbestos (loads)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 0

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 1

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Total amount of waste

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Fees from Curbside

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Curbside Cart Replacement

Bulky items (units)

Cost Recovery

Rural Collections (contract)

Revenues

TotalProfessional

Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Waste Tipping Fees

Capital Costs Operating Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landfill Closure Total Costs

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside

Inflated Waste Tipping FeeTotal

Diversion Systems Implementation

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Page 47: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4A

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 1 (Existing System)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 2 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $296,813 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $814,813 $569,812.62 $0.00 $0.00 100% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $575,593.32 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $822,993.32 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $303,357 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $822,993 $587,105.19 $0.00 $0.00 100% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $581,422.40 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $831,222.40 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,036,773 $604,911.86 -$205,550.33 -$213,854.56 80% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $587,299.86 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $839,499.86 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $316,591 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $839,500 $623,247.31 $0.00 $0.00 100% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $593,225.71 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $847,825.71 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,040,045 $642,126.58 -$192,219.75 -$208,064.84 82% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $599,248.31 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $856,248.31 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $330,066 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $856,248 $661,618.56 $0.00 $0.00 100% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $605,319.30 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $864,719.30 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $336,901 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $864,719 $681,687.85 $0.00 $0.00 100% $562023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $611,438.67 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $873,238.67 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,044,955 $702,350.84 -$171,715.87 -$197,247.56 84% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $617,606.43 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $881,806.43 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $350,716 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,023,152 $723,624.37 -$141,345.45 -$165,608.73 86% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $623,870.95 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $890,670.95 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,048,364 $745,583.53 -$157,692.69 -$188,457.36 85% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $630,183.85 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $899,583.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $364,947 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $899,584 $768,190.59 $0.00 $0.00 100% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $636,545.13 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $908,545.13 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $372,136 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $908,545 $791,463.86 $0.00 $0.00 100% $622028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $642,954.79 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $917,554.79 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,053,682 $815,422.14 -$136,127.03 -$172,641.98 87% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $649,461.22 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $926,661.22 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $386,707 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $926,661 $840,147.34 $0.00 $0.00 100% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $656,016.03 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $935,816.03 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,057,227 $865,599.22 -$121,411.24 -$160,199.55 89% $662031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $662,619.22 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $945,019.22 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $401,519 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $945,019 $891,798.23 $0.00 $0.00 100% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $669,319.18 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $954,319.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,060,773 $918,831.80 -$106,453.55 -$146,137.91 90% $692033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $676,087.52 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $963,887.52 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $416,706 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $963,888 $946,685.75 $0.00 $0.00 100% $702034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $682,952.62 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $973,552.62 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,221,536 $975,424.52 -$247,983.74 -$354,181.85 80% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $689,866.11 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $983,266.11 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $432,266 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $983,266 $1,005,004.65 $0.00 $0.00 100% $732036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $696,827.97 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $993,027.97 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,068,409 $1,035,449.71 -$75,381.12 -$112,012.38 93% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $703,886.60 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,002,886.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $448,068 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $1,002,887 $1,066,857.23 $0.00 $0.00 100% $762038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $710,993.61 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,012,793.61 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,072,227 $1,099,181.67 -$59,433.66 -$91,883.23 94% $782039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $718,197.39 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,022,797.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $464,161 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $1,022,797 $1,132,524.94 $0.00 $0.00 100% $792040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $725,449.55 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,033,049.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,076,182 $1,166,840.08 -$43,132.27 -$69,375.55 96% $812041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $732,798.47 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,043,398.47 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $480,671 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $1,043,398 $1,202,233.57 $0.00 $0.00 100% $83

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$1,166,857.15Average Cost Recovery: 94%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $678,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $923,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $923,000 $678,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $602017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $677,236.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $924,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $924,636 $690,781.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $602018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $921,972.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,171,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,171,773 $959,220.43 $0.00 $0.00 100% $832019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $675,709.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $927,909.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $927,909 $717,067.89 $0.00 $0.00 100% $612020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $920,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,175,045.45 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,175,045 $996,319.76 $0.00 $0.00 100% $852021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $674,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $931,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $931,182 $744,351.20 $0.00 $0.00 100% $622022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $673,418.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $932,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $932,818 $758,378.25 $0.00 $0.00 100% $632023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $918,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,179,954.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,179,955 $1,054,670.97 $0.00 $0.00 100% $872024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $813,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,077,436.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,077,436 $952,836.01 $0.00 $0.00 100% $782025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $916,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,183,363.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,183,364 $1,095,378.39 $0.00 $0.00 100% $892026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $670,236.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $939,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $939,636 $817,014.39 $0.00 $0.00 100% $652027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $669,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $941,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $941,409 $832,326.07 $0.00 $0.00 100% $662028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $914,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,188,681.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,188,682 $1,159,276.77 $0.00 $0.00 100% $912029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $667,754.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $944,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $944,955 $863,811.71 $0.00 $0.00 100% $672030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $912,427.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,192,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,192,227 $1,203,928.41 $0.00 $0.00 100% $932031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $666,100.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $948,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $948,500 $896,482.90 $0.00 $0.00 100% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $910,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,195,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,195,773 $1,250,295.78 $0.00 $0.00 100% $942033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $664,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $952,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $952,182 $930,294.94 $0.00 $0.00 100% $692034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $1,065,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,356,536.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,356,536 $1,522,419.61 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1132035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $662,600.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $956,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $956,000 $965,283.08 $0.00 $0.00 100% $702036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $907,209.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,203,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,203,409 $1,348,064.99 $0.00 $0.00 100% $982037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $660,818.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $959,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $959,818 $1,001,579.88 $0.00 $0.00 100% $722038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $905,427.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,207,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,207,227 $1,399,772.16 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1002039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $659,036.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $963,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $963,636 $1,039,233.96 $0.00 $0.00 100% $732040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $903,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,211,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,211,182 $1,453,354.65 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1012041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $657,127.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $967,727.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $967,727 $1,078,086.94 $0.00 $0.00 100% $74

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Capital Costs

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Cost Recovery

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landfill Closure

Rural Collections (contract)

Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Diversion (contract)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Curbside Cart Replacement

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landfill Closure

Rural Collections (contract)

Revenues

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Curbside Cart Replacement

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Diversion (contract)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 2

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 3

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Landfill Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Page 48: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4A

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 1 (Existing System)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 3 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $768,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,013,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,013,000 $768,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $682017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $767,236.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,014,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $1,014,636 $782,581.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $682018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $1,011,972.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,261,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,261,773 $1,052,856.43 $0.00 $0.00 100% $912019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $765,709.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,017,909.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $1,017,909 $812,576.61 $0.00 $0.00 100% $702020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $1,010,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,265,045.45 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,265,045 $1,093,738.66 $0.00 $0.00 100% $932021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $764,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,021,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $1,021,182 $843,718.48 $0.00 $0.00 100% $712022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $763,418.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,022,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $1,022,818 $859,732.87 $0.00 $0.00 100% $712023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $1,008,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,269,954.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,269,955 $1,158,052.68 $0.00 $0.00 100% $962024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $903,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,167,436.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,167,436 $1,058,285.36 $0.00 $0.00 100% $862025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $1,006,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,273,363.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,273,364 $1,202,936.72 $0.00 $0.00 100% $972026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $760,236.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,029,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $1,029,636 $926,723.89 $0.00 $0.00 100% $742027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $759,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,031,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $1,031,409 $944,229.75 $0.00 $0.00 100% $752028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $1,004,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,278,681.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,278,682 $1,273,418.53 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1002029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $757,754.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,034,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $1,034,955 $980,236.30 $0.00 $0.00 100% $762030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $1,002,427.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,282,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,282,227 $1,322,681.50 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1022031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $756,100.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,038,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $1,038,500 $1,017,611.05 $0.00 $0.00 100% $772032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $1,000,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,285,772.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,285,773 $1,373,846.49 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1042033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $754,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,042,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $1,042,182 $1,056,316.67 $0.00 $0.00 100% $792034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $1,155,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,446,536.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,446,536 $1,650,961.77 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1222035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $752,600.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,046,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $1,046,000 $1,096,396.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $802036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $997,209.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,293,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,293,409 $1,481,800.25 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1082037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $750,818.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,049,818.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $1,049,818 $1,137,989.85 $0.00 $0.00 100% $822038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $995,427.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,297,227.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,297,227 $1,538,910.33 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1092039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $749,036.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,053,636.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $1,053,636 $1,181,154.89 $0.00 $0.00 100% $832040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $993,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,301,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,301,182 $1,598,114.01 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1112041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $747,127.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,057,727.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $1,057,727 $1,225,741.48 $0.00 $0.00 100% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Inflated2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $406,500.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $651,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $406,500.00 -$406,500.00 -$406,500.00 62% $352017 1,112 11,636 5 506 3% 376.5 11,259.5 5 506 166,126 $406,118.18 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $653,518.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $0 $1,059,636 $414,240.55 -$406,118.18 -$414,240.55 62% $362018 1,124 11,754 5 512 3% 380.4 11,373.6 5 512 177,499 $528,486.36 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $778,286.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $0 $1,306,773 $549,837.21 -$528,486.36 -$549,837.21 60% $472019 1,136 11,873 5 518 3% 384.2 11,488.8 5 518 188,988 $405,354.55 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $657,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $0 $1,062,909 $430,165.49 -$405,354.55 -$430,165.49 62% $362020 1,148 11,993 5 524 3% 388.1 11,604.9 5 524 200,593 $527,722.73 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $782,322.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $0 $1,310,045 $571,224.05 -$527,722.73 -$571,224.05 60% $482021 1,160 12,115 5 530 3% 392.0 11,723.0 5 530 212,316 $404,590.91 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $661,590.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $0 $1,066,182 $446,701.06 -$404,590.91 -$446,701.06 62% $372022 1,172 12,238 5 536 3% 396.0 11,842.0 5 536 224,158 $404,209.09 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $663,609.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $0 $1,067,818 $455,205.09 -$404,209.09 -$455,205.09 62% $372023 1,184 12,362 5 542 3% 400.0 11,962.0 5 542 236,120 $526,577.27 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $788,377.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $0 $1,314,955 $604,871.77 -$526,577.27 -$604,871.77 60% $492024 1,196 12,487 5 548 3% 404.1 12,082.9 5 548 248,203 $474,118.18 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $738,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $0 $1,212,436 $555,505.02 -$474,118.18 -$555,505.02 61% $452025 1,209 12,614 5 554 3% 408.2 12,205.8 5 554 260,409 $525,781.82 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $792,581.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $0 $1,318,364 $628,357.94 -$525,781.82 -$628,357.94 60% $502026 1,222 12,742 5 560 3% 412.3 12,329.7 5 560 272,738 $402,618.18 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $672,018.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $0 $1,074,636 $490,789.32 -$402,618.18 -$490,789.32 63% $392027 1,235 12,871 5 566 3% 416.5 12,454.5 5 566 285,193 $402,204.55 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $674,204.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $0 $1,076,409 $500,090.80 -$402,204.55 -$500,090.80 63% $392028 1,248 13,001 5 572 3% 420.7 12,580.3 5 572 297,773 $524,540.91 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $799,140.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $0 $1,323,682 $665,244.70 -$524,540.91 -$665,244.70 60% $522029 1,261 13,133 5 578 3% 425.0 12,708.0 5 578 310,481 $401,377.27 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $678,577.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $0 $1,079,955 $519,224.30 -$401,377.27 -$519,224.30 63% $402030 1,274 13,266 5 584 3% 429.3 12,836.7 5 584 323,318 $523,713.64 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $803,513.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $0 $1,327,227 $691,029.02 -$523,713.64 -$691,029.02 61% $532031 1,287 13,400 5 590 3% 433.6 12,966.4 5 590 336,284 $400,550.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $682,950.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $0 $1,083,500 $539,087.56 -$400,550.00 -$539,087.56 63% $402032 1,300 13,536 5 596 3% 438.0 13,098.0 5 596 349,382 $522,886.36 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $807,886.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $0 $1,330,773 $717,810.93 -$522,886.36 -$717,810.93 61% $542033 1,314 13,673 5 603 3% 442.4 13,230.6 5 603 362,613 $399,690.91 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $687,490.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $0 $1,087,182 $559,663.77 -$399,690.91 -$559,663.77 63% $412034 1,328 13,812 5 610 3% 446.9 13,365.1 5 610 375,978 $600,468.18 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $891,068.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $0 $1,491,536 $857,616.43 -$600,468.18 -$857,616.43 60% $632035 1,342 13,952 5 617 3% 451.5 13,500.5 5 617 389,479 $398,800.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $692,200.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $0 $1,091,000 $580,976.30 -$398,800.00 -$580,976.30 63% $422036 1,356 14,093 5 624 3% 456.0 13,637.0 5 624 403,115 $521,104.55 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $817,304.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $0 $1,338,409 $774,333.94 -$521,104.55 -$774,333.94 61% $562037 1,370 14,236 5 631 3% 460.7 13,775.3 5 631 416,891 $397,909.09 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $696,909.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $0 $1,094,818 $603,097.42 -$397,909.09 -$603,097.42 64% $432038 1,384 14,380 5 638 3% 465.3 13,914.7 5 638 430,805 $520,213.64 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $822,013.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $0 $1,342,227 $804,239.71 -$520,213.64 -$804,239.71 61% $572039 1,398 14,526 5 645 3% 470.1 14,055.9 5 645 444,861 $397,018.18 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $701,618.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $0 $1,098,636 $626,057.68 -$397,018.18 -$626,057.68 64% $432040 1,413 14,673 5 652 3% 474.8 14,198.2 5 652 459,060 $519,290.91 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $826,890.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $0 $1,346,182 $835,246.84 -$519,290.91 -$835,246.84 61% $582041 1,428 14,822 5 659 3% 479.6 14,342.4 5 659 473,402 $396,063.64 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $706,663.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $0 $1,102,727 $649,784.38 -$396,063.64 -$649,784.38 64% $44

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$8,082,757.40Notes: Average Cost Recovery: 62%

(1) Increase in number of households assumed to correspond linearly to population growth rate(2) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered. Assumed to remain constant throughout the study period.(3) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered.(4) Assumes that diversion rate rises gradually from current to proposed over a period of 5 years.(5) For subsequent years, 2015 contract cost is multiplied by ratio of increased households to 2015 households.

Mixed Waste Professional

Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landfill Closure

Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Diversion (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

Expansion

Rural Collections (contract)

Capital Costs Operating Costs

Curbside Cart Replacement

Cost Recovery

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Rural Collections (contract)

Diversion (contract) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

ExpansionCurbside Cart Replacement

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Landfill Closure

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes) Total

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 4

YearNumber of

Households (1)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 5

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Revenues

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

LandfilledTotal amount of waste

Page 49: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4B

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,491,500 $569,812.62 -$676,687.38 55% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $550,790.61 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $798,190.61 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,779,896 $561,806.43 -$2,021,339.86 29% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $531,313.94 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $781,113.94 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,740,273 $552,779.03 -$997,908.80 45% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $511,376.21 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $763,576.21 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,496,409 $542,676.53 -$777,688.11 51% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $490,971.03 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $745,571.03 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,498,045 $531,442.84 -$814,502.51 50% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $470,129.73 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $727,129.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,745,182 $519,061.21 -$1,124,011.77 42% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $474,889.81 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $734,289.81 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,501,318 $534,803.06 -$863,798.52 49% $562023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $479,687.63 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $741,487.63 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,502,955 $551,010.30 -$874,686.14 49% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $484,523.16 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $748,723.16 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,891,436 $567,696.11 -$1,338,870.64 40% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $489,434.15 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $756,234.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,506,364 $584,919.11 -$896,474.18 50% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $494,382.85 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $763,782.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,508,136 $602,649.94 -$907,362.77 51% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $499,369.29 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $771,369.29 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,755,409 $620,902.94 -$1,223,529.81 44% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $504,393.44 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $778,993.44 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,511,682 $639,692.85 -$929,226.02 52% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $509,493.05 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $786,693.05 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,513,455 $659,083.59 -$940,143.49 52% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $514,630.38 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $794,430.38 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,760,727 $679,043.86 -$1,275,008.23 45% $662031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $519,805.43 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $802,205.43 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,517,000 $699,589.68 -$962,019.37 53% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $525,055.94 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $810,055.94 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,518,773 $720,789.29 -$972,916.28 53% $692033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $530,364.16 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $818,164.16 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,766,182 $742,637.87 -$1,327,453.58 46% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $535,747.84 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $826,347.84 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,679,536 $765,179.84 -$1,218,563.31 49% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $541,169.24 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $834,569.24 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,524,500 $788,381.40 -$1,005,098.84 55% $732036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $546,628.37 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $842,828.37 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,771,909 $812,261.00 -$1,380,565.09 48% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $552,162.94 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $851,162.94 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,528,318 $836,894.78 -$1,026,341.41 56% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $557,735.24 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $859,535.24 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,775,727 $862,247.34 -$1,416,414.26 48% $782039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $563,382.98 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $867,982.98 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,532,136 $888,398.21 -$1,047,302.98 57% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $569,068.45 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $876,668.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,534,182 $915,310.89 -$1,057,568.99 57% $812041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $574,829.37 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $885,429.37 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,536,227 $943,068.51 -$1,067,702.94 58% $83

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$15,391,392.97Average Cost Recovery: 49%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,246,500.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,491,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,491,500 $1,246,500.00 $0.00 100% $1112017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $2,532,496.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $2,779,896.36 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,779,896 $2,583,146.29 $0.00 100% $2392018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,490,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,740,272.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,740,273 $1,550,687.83 $0.00 100% $1482019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $1,244,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,496,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,496,409 $1,320,364.64 $0.00 100% $1312020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $1,243,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,498,045.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,498,045 $1,345,945.35 $0.00 100% $1392021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,488,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,745,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,745,182 $1,643,072.98 $0.00 100% $1782022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $1,241,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,501,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,501,318 $1,398,601.58 $0.00 100% $1502023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $1,241,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,502,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,502,955 $1,425,696.44 $0.00 100% $1512024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $1,627,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,891,436.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,891,436 $1,906,566.75 $0.00 100% $2012025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $1,239,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,506,363.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,506,364 $1,481,393.29 $0.00 100% $1542026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $1,238,736.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,508,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,508,136 $1,510,012.72 $0.00 100% $1562027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $1,483,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,755,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,755,409 $1,844,432.75 $0.00 100% $1892028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $1,237,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,511,681.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,511,682 $1,568,918.87 $0.00 100% $1592029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $1,236,254.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,513,454.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,513,455 $1,599,227.08 $0.00 100% $1602030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $1,480,927.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,760,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,760,727 $1,954,052.09 $0.00 100% $1942031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $1,234,600.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,517,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,517,000 $1,661,609.05 $0.00 100% $1632032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $1,233,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,518,772.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,518,773 $1,693,705.56 $0.00 100% $1642033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $1,478,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,766,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,766,182 $2,070,091.46 $0.00 100% $1992034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $1,388,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,679,536.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,679,536 $1,983,743.15 $0.00 100% $1892035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $1,231,100.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,524,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,524,500 $1,793,480.23 $0.00 100% $1692036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $1,475,709.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,771,909.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,771,909 $2,192,826.08 $0.00 100% $2052037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $1,229,318.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,528,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,528,318 $1,863,236.19 $0.00 100% $1722038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $1,473,927.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,775,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,775,727 $2,278,661.60 $0.00 100% $2092039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $1,227,536.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,532,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,532,136 $1,935,701.19 $0.00 100% $1752040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $1,226,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,534,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,534,182 $1,972,879.89 $0.00 100% $1772041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $1,225,627.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,536,227.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,536,227 $2,010,771.45 $0.00 100% $178

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Operating Costs

Curbside Cart Replacement

Diversion Systems

ImplementationAsbestos

(loads)

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Capital Costs

Total Costs

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Curbside Cart Replacement

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Diversion (contract)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Operating Costs

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

Implementation

Revenues

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Landfill Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Professional Services

Landfill Closure

Curbside Collections (contract)(5) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 0RevenuesLandfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Asbestos (loads)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Bulky items (units)

Capital Costs

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Bulky items (units)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 1

Year

Diverted (tonnes)

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Page 50: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4B

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 2 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,221,500 $569,812.62 -$406,687.38 67% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $550,790.61 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $798,190.61 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,509,896 $561,806.43 -$1,745,939.86 32% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $531,313.94 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $781,113.94 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,470,273 $552,779.03 -$717,000.80 53% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $511,376.21 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $763,576.21 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,226,409 $542,676.53 -$491,161.95 62% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $490,971.03 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $745,571.03 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,228,045 $531,442.84 -$522,245.83 61% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $470,129.73 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $727,129.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,475,182 $519,061.21 -$825,909.95 49% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $474,889.81 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $734,289.81 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,231,318 $534,803.06 -$559,734.67 60% $562023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $479,687.63 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $741,487.63 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,232,955 $551,010.30 -$564,541.01 60% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $484,523.16 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $748,723.16 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,621,436 $567,696.11 -$1,022,522.61 46% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $489,434.15 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $756,234.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,236,364 $584,919.11 -$573,799.19 61% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $494,382.85 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $763,782.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,238,136 $602,649.94 -$578,234.28 62% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $499,369.29 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $771,369.29 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,485,409 $620,902.94 -$887,818.75 52% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $504,393.44 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $778,993.44 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,241,682 $639,692.85 -$586,800.73 63% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $509,493.05 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $786,693.05 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,243,455 $659,083.59 -$590,869.70 63% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $514,630.38 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $794,430.38 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,490,727 $679,043.86 -$918,748.96 53% $662031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $519,805.43 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $802,205.43 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,247,000 $699,589.68 -$598,634.92 64% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $525,055.94 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $810,055.94 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,248,773 $720,789.29 -$602,264.14 65% $692033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $530,364.16 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $818,164.16 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,496,182 $742,637.87 -$949,388.40 55% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $535,747.84 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $826,347.84 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,409,536 $765,179.84 -$832,936.82 59% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $541,169.24 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $834,569.24 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,254,500 $788,381.40 -$611,759.82 67% $732036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $546,628.37 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $842,828.37 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,501,909 $812,261.00 -$979,359.29 56% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $552,162.94 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $851,162.94 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,258,318 $836,894.78 -$617,111.50 68% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $557,735.24 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $859,535.24 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,505,727 $862,247.34 -$998,999.75 57% $782039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $563,382.98 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $867,982.98 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,262,136 $888,398.21 -$621,540.18 69% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $569,068.45 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $876,668.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,264,182 $915,310.89 -$623,290.93 69% $812041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $574,829.37 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $885,429.37 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,266,227 $943,068.51 -$624,739.32 70% $83

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$10,627,093.03Average Cost Recovery: 59%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,111,500.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,356,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,356,500 $1,111,500.00 $0.00 100% $992017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $2,397,496.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $2,644,896.36 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,644,896 $2,445,446.29 $0.00 100% $2262018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,355,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,605,272.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,605,273 $1,410,233.83 $0.00 100% $1352019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $1,109,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,361,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,361,409 $1,177,101.56 $0.00 100% $1172020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $1,108,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,363,045.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,363,045 $1,199,817.01 $0.00 100% $1242021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,353,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,610,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,610,182 $1,494,022.07 $0.00 100% $1622022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $1,106,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,366,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,366,318 $1,246,569.66 $0.00 100% $1342023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $1,106,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,367,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,367,955 $1,270,623.87 $0.00 100% $1352024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $1,492,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,756,436.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,756,436 $1,748,392.73 $0.00 100% $1842025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $1,104,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,371,363.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,371,364 $1,320,055.79 $0.00 100% $1372026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $1,103,736.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,373,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,373,136 $1,345,448.47 $0.00 100% $1392027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $1,348,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,620,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,620,409 $1,676,577.22 $0.00 100% $1712028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $1,102,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,376,681.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,376,682 $1,397,706.22 $0.00 100% $1412029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $1,101,254.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,378,454.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,378,455 $1,424,590.18 $0.00 100% $1422030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $1,345,927.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,625,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,625,727 $1,775,922.45 $0.00 100% $1762031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $1,099,600.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,382,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,382,000 $1,479,916.82 $0.00 100% $1452032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $1,098,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,383,772.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,383,773 $1,508,379.49 $0.00 100% $1462033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $1,343,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,631,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,631,182 $1,881,058.86 $0.00 100% $1812034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $1,253,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,544,536.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,544,536 $1,790,929.91 $0.00 100% $1702035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $1,096,100.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,389,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,389,500 $1,596,810.73 $0.00 100% $1502036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $1,340,709.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,636,909.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,636,909 $1,992,223.18 $0.00 100% $1862037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $1,094,318.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,393,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,393,318 $1,658,621.24 $0.00 100% $1532038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $1,338,927.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,640,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,640,727 $2,069,954.34 $0.00 100% $1892039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $1,092,536.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,397,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,397,136 $1,722,819.79 $0.00 100% $1562040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $1,091,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,399,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,399,182 $1,755,740.86 $0.00 100% $1572041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $1,090,627.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,401,227.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,401,227 $1,789,289.64 $0.00 100% $159

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 3

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationDiverted (tonnes)

Revenues

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Capital Costs Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Cost Recovery

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Landfill Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Rural Collections (contract)

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Inflated Net Cash FlowTotal

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Revenues

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Fees from Curbside

Total Costs

Diversion Systems

Implementation Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Capital Costs Operating Costs

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Professional

Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Curbside Cart Replacement

Curbside Cart Replacement

Landfilled

Diversion Rate (4)

Landfill Closure

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Diverted (tonnes)Year

Number of Households (1)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 2

Year

Page 51: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4B

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 2 (Flexible Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 3 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,201,500.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,446,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,446,500 $1,201,500.00 $0.00 100% $1072017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $2,487,496.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $2,734,896.36 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,734,896 $2,537,246.29 $0.00 100% $2352018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,445,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,695,272.73 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,695,273 $1,503,869.83 $0.00 100% $1442019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $1,199,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,451,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,451,409 $1,272,610.28 $0.00 100% $1262020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $1,198,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,453,045.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,453,045 $1,297,235.90 $0.00 100% $1342021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,443,181.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,700,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,700,182 $1,593,389.34 $0.00 100% $1732022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $1,196,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,456,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,456,318 $1,347,924.28 $0.00 100% $1452023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $1,196,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,457,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,457,955 $1,374,005.58 $0.00 100% $1462024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $1,582,236.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,846,436.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,846,436 $1,853,842.08 $0.00 100% $1952025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $1,194,563.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,461,363.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,461,364 $1,427,614.12 $0.00 100% $1492026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $1,193,736.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,463,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,463,136 $1,455,157.97 $0.00 100% $1502027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $1,438,409.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,710,409.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,710,409 $1,788,480.91 $0.00 100% $1832028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $1,192,081.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,466,681.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,466,682 $1,511,847.98 $0.00 100% $1532029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $1,191,254.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,468,454.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,468,455 $1,541,014.78 $0.00 100% $1542030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $1,435,927.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,715,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,715,727 $1,894,675.54 $0.00 100% $1882031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $1,189,600.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,472,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,472,000 $1,601,044.98 $0.00 100% $1572032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $1,188,772.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,473,772.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,473,773 $1,631,930.21 $0.00 100% $1582033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $1,433,381.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,721,181.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,721,182 $2,007,080.59 $0.00 100% $1932034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $1,343,936.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,634,536.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,634,536 $1,919,472.07 $0.00 100% $1832035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $1,186,100.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,479,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,479,500 $1,727,923.73 $0.00 100% $1632036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $1,430,709.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,726,909.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,726,909 $2,125,958.45 $0.00 100% $1992037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $1,184,318.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,483,318.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,483,318 $1,795,031.21 $0.00 100% $1662038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $1,428,927.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,730,727.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,730,727 $2,209,092.51 $0.00 100% $2022039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $1,182,536.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,487,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,487,136 $1,864,740.72 $0.00 100% $1692040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $1,181,581.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,489,181.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,489,182 $1,900,500.21 $0.00 100% $1702041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $1,180,627.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,491,227.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,491,227 $1,936,944.18 $0.00 100% $172

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Inflated2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $623,250.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $868,250.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $433,500 $1,491,500 $623,250.00 -$623,250.00 58% $552017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $1,266,248.18 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,513,648.18 $1,286,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $433,500 $2,779,896 $1,291,573.15 -$1,291,573.15 54% $1192018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $745,236.36 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $995,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $433,500 $1,740,273 $775,343.91 -$775,343.91 57% $742019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $622,104.55 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $874,304.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $433,500 $1,496,409 $660,182.32 -$660,182.32 58% $652020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $621,722.73 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $876,322.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $1,498,045 $672,972.67 -$672,972.67 58% $692021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $744,090.91 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,001,090.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,745,182 $821,536.49 -$821,536.49 57% $882022 1,172 12,238 5 536 25% 3004.6 9,233.4 5 536 213,905 $620,959.09 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $880,359.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $433,500 $1,501,318 $699,300.79 -$699,300.79 59% $742023 1,184 12,362 5 542 25% 3035.0 9,327.0 5 542 223,232 $620,577.27 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $882,377.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $433,500 $1,502,955 $712,848.22 -$712,848.22 59% $752024 1,196 12,487 5 548 25% 3065.7 9,421.3 5 548 232,654 $813,618.18 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,077,818.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $433,500 $1,891,436 $953,283.38 -$953,283.38 57% $1002025 1,209 12,614 5 554 25% 3096.9 9,517.1 5 554 242,171 $619,781.82 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $886,581.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $433,500 $1,506,364 $740,696.65 -$740,696.65 59% $762026 1,222 12,742 5 560 25% 3128.3 9,613.7 5 560 251,784 $619,368.18 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $888,768.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $433,500 $1,508,136 $755,006.36 -$755,006.36 59% $772027 1,235 12,871 5 566 25% 3160.0 9,711.0 5 566 261,495 $741,704.55 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,013,704.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $433,500 $1,755,409 $922,216.38 -$922,216.38 58% $942028 1,248 13,001 5 572 25% 3191.9 9,809.1 5 572 271,304 $618,540.91 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $893,140.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $433,500 $1,511,682 $784,459.43 -$784,459.43 59% $792029 1,261 13,133 5 578 25% 3224.3 9,908.7 5 578 281,213 $618,127.27 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $895,327.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $433,500 $1,513,455 $799,613.54 -$799,613.54 59% $792030 1,274 13,266 5 584 25% 3257.0 10,009.0 5 584 291,222 $740,463.64 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,020,263.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $433,500 $1,760,727 $977,026.04 -$977,026.04 58% $962031 1,287 13,400 5 590 25% 3289.9 10,110.1 5 590 301,332 $617,300.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $899,700.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $433,500 $1,517,000 $830,804.53 -$830,804.53 59% $812032 1,300 13,536 5 596 25% 3323.3 10,212.7 5 596 311,545 $616,886.36 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $901,886.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $433,500 $1,518,773 $846,852.78 -$846,852.78 59% $822033 1,314 13,673 5 603 25% 3356.9 10,316.1 5 603 321,861 $739,190.91 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,026,990.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $433,500 $1,766,182 $1,035,045.73 -$1,035,045.73 58% $992034 1,328 13,812 5 610 25% 3391.0 10,421.0 5 610 332,282 $694,468.18 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $985,068.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $433,500 $1,679,536 $991,871.57 -$991,871.57 59% $942035 1,342 13,952 5 617 25% 3425.4 10,526.6 5 617 342,808 $615,550.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $908,950.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $433,500 $1,524,500 $896,740.12 -$896,740.12 60% $842036 1,356 14,093 5 624 25% 3460.0 10,633.0 5 624 353,441 $737,854.55 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,034,054.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $433,500 $1,771,909 $1,096,413.04 -$1,096,413.04 58% $1022037 1,370 14,236 5 631 25% 3495.1 10,740.9 5 631 364,182 $614,659.09 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $913,659.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $433,500 $1,528,318 $931,618.10 -$931,618.10 60% $852038 1,384 14,380 5 638 25% 3530.5 10,849.5 5 638 375,032 $736,963.64 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,038,763.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $433,500 $1,775,727 $1,139,330.80 -$1,139,330.80 58% $1042039 1,398 14,526 5 645 25% 3566.3 10,959.7 5 645 385,991 $613,768.18 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $918,368.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $433,500 $1,532,136 $967,850.59 -$967,850.59 60% $872040 1,413 14,673 5 652 25% 3602.4 11,070.6 5 652 397,062 $613,290.91 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $920,890.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $433,500 $1,534,182 $986,439.94 -$986,439.94 60% $882041 1,428 14,822 5 659 25% 3639.0 11,183.0 5 659 408,245 $612,813.64 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $923,413.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $433,500 $1,536,227 $1,005,385.73 -$1,005,385.73 60% $89

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$12,279,552.00Notes: Average Cost Recovery: 59%

(1) Increase in number of households assumed to correspond linearly to population growth rate(2) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered. Assumed to remain constant throughout the study period.(3) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered.(4) Assumes that diversion rate rises gradually from current to proposed over a period of 5 years.(5) For subsequent years, 2015 contract cost is multiplied by ratio of increased households to 2015 households.

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Diversion Systems

Implementation

Number of Households (1)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Cost Recovery

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Curbside Cart Replacement

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 5

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside

Fees from Curbside

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Asbestos (loads)

Diverted (tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 4Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Diverted (tonnes)

Year Total

Diversion Systems

Implementation

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Revenues

Total

Mixed Waste Landifll

operating cost per year (admin)

Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement Total Costs

Total Costs

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Landfill Expansion

Operating CostsLandifll

operating cost per year

(contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Capital Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Page 52: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4C

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 3 (Mandated Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $569,812.62 -$699,287.38 54% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $515,985.30 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $763,385.30 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,287,496 $526,305.00 -$2,574,593.29 23% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $460,997.39 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $710,797.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $479,621.68 -$839,160.98 47% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $404,833.53 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $657,033.53 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,764,509 $429,612.58 -$1,175,261.93 37% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $347,478.36 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $602,078.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $376,121.75 -$994,286.57 40% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $288,939.26 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $545,939.26 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $319,012.29 -$1,077,961.07 36% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $291,859.78 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $551,259.78 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $328,681.51 -$1,095,371.34 36% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $294,803.06 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $556,603.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $338,636.05 -$1,113,020.68 36% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $297,769.11 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $561,969.11 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $348,883.97 -$1,584,162.28 29% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $300,780.70 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $567,580.70 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $359,460.78 -$1,148,941.60 37% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $303,815.06 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $573,215.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $370,348.86 -$1,167,213.13 37% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $306,872.18 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $578,872.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $381,556.98 -$1,185,727.63 38% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $309,952.07 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $584,552.07 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $393,094.17 -$1,204,486.96 38% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $313,077.50 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $590,277.50 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $404,999.13 -$1,541,043.88 33% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $316,225.70 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $596,025.70 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $417,253.10 -$1,242,687.17 39% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $319,396.67 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $601,796.67 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $429,865.86 -$1,262,159.81 39% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $322,613.17 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $607,613.17 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $442,878.75 -$1,281,851.77 39% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $325,872.44 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $613,672.44 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,788,782 $456,300.09 -$1,645,436.82 34% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $329,177.25 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $619,777.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $470,146.17 -$1,545,875.34 36% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $332,504.83 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $625,904.83 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $484,396.75 -$1,342,007.42 40% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $335,855.17 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $632,055.17 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $499,063.12 -$1,362,545.28 41% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $339,251.06 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $638,251.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $514,191.41 -$1,383,298.84 41% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $342,669.71 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $644,469.71 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,798,327 $529,760.40 -$1,783,840.34 36% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $346,133.90 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $650,733.90 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $545,818.28 -$1,425,520.83 42% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $349,620.85 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $657,220.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $562,343.20 -$1,446,887.37 42% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $353,153.34 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $663,753.34 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $579,385.49 -$1,468,463.65 43% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$18,656,043.19Average Cost Recovery: 38%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,269,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,514,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $1,269,100.00 $0.00 100% $1132017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $3,040,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,287,496.36 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,287,496 $3,100,898.29 $0.00 100% $3072018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $1,267,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,517,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $1,318,782.67 $0.00 100% $1462019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $1,512,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,764,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,764,509 $1,604,874.51 $0.00 100% $2032020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $1,266,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,520,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $1,370,408.32 $0.00 100% $2032021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $1,265,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,522,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $1,396,973.37 $0.00 100% $2512022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $1,264,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,523,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $1,424,052.85 $0.00 100% $2532023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $1,263,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,525,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $1,451,656.73 $0.00 100% $2562024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $1,649,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,914,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $1,933,046.25 $0.00 100% $3382025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $1,262,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,528,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $1,508,402.38 $0.00 100% $2602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $1,261,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,530,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $1,537,561.99 $0.00 100% $2632027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $1,260,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,532,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $1,567,284.62 $0.00 100% $2652028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $1,259,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,534,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $1,597,581.13 $0.00 100% $2672029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $1,504,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,781,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $1,946,043.01 $0.00 100% $3232030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $1,258,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,537,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $1,659,940.27 $0.00 100% $2722031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $1,257,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,539,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $1,692,025.67 $0.00 100% $2752032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $1,256,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,541,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $1,724,730.52 $0.00 100% $2772033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $1,500,981.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,788,781.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,788,782 $2,101,736.91 $0.00 100% $3352034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $1,411,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,702,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $2,016,021.51 $0.00 100% $3182035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $1,253,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,547,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $1,826,404.17 $0.00 100% $2852036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $1,252,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,549,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $1,861,608.41 $0.00 100% $2882037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $1,251,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,550,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $1,897,490.25 $0.00 100% $2902038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $1,496,527.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,798,327.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,798,327 $2,313,600.74 $0.00 100% $3512039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $1,250,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,554,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $1,971,339.11 $0.00 100% $2962040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $1,249,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,556,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $2,009,230.57 $0.00 100% $2982041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $1,248,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,558,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $2,047,849.15 $0.00 100% $301

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 1

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Cost Recovery

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 0Revenues Capital Costs

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Fees from Curbside

Diversion (contract)Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Landfill

ExpansionCurbside Cart Replacement

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Inflated Net Cash

Flow

Operating Costs

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Diversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diverted (tonnes)

RevenuesLandfilled

Total CostsInflated Waste

Tipping FeeCost

RecoveryInflated Net Cash

Flow

Total CostsInflated Waste

Tipping Fee

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Capital Costs

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement

Page 53: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4C

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 3 (Mandated Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 2 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,244,100 $569,812.62 -$429,287.38 65% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $515,985.30 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $763,385.30 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,017,496 $526,305.00 -$2,299,193.29 25% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $460,997.39 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $710,797.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,247,373 $479,621.68 -$558,252.98 57% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $404,833.53 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $657,033.53 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,494,509 $429,612.58 -$888,735.77 44% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $347,478.36 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $602,078.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,250,645 $376,121.75 -$702,029.89 48% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $288,939.26 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $545,939.26 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,252,282 $319,012.29 -$779,859.26 44% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $291,859.78 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $551,259.78 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,253,918 $328,681.51 -$791,307.49 44% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $294,803.06 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $556,603.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,255,555 $338,636.05 -$802,875.55 44% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $297,769.11 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $561,969.11 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,644,036 $348,883.97 -$1,267,814.25 34% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $300,780.70 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $567,580.70 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,258,964 $359,460.78 -$826,266.61 45% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $303,815.06 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $573,215.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,260,736 $370,348.86 -$838,084.64 45% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $306,872.18 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $578,872.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,262,509 $381,556.98 -$850,016.57 46% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $309,952.07 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $584,552.07 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,264,282 $393,094.17 -$862,061.67 46% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $313,077.50 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $590,277.50 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,511,555 $404,999.13 -$1,191,770.09 39% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $316,225.70 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $596,025.70 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,267,827 $417,253.10 -$886,427.91 47% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $319,396.67 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $601,796.67 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,269,600 $429,865.86 -$898,775.36 47% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $322,613.17 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $607,613.17 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,271,373 $442,878.75 -$911,199.63 48% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $325,872.44 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $613,672.44 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,518,782 $456,300.09 -$1,267,371.64 40% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $329,177.25 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $619,777.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,432,136 $470,146.17 -$1,160,248.85 43% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $332,504.83 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $625,904.83 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,277,100 $484,396.75 -$948,668.40 49% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $335,855.17 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $632,055.17 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,279,009 $499,063.12 -$961,339.49 49% $752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $339,251.06 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $638,251.06 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,280,918 $514,191.41 -$974,068.93 50% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $342,669.71 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $644,469.71 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,528,327 $529,760.40 -$1,366,425.83 42% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $346,133.90 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $650,733.90 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,284,736 $545,818.28 -$999,758.03 51% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $349,620.85 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $657,220.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,286,782 $562,343.20 -$1,012,609.31 51% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $353,153.34 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $663,753.34 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,288,827 $579,385.49 -$1,025,500.03 52% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$13,891,743.26Average Cost Recovery: 46%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,134,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,379,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,379,100 $1,134,100.00 $0.00 100% $1012017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $2,905,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,152,496.36 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,152,496 $2,963,198.29 $0.00 100% $2932018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $1,132,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,382,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,382,373 $1,178,328.67 $0.00 100% $1302019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $1,377,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,629,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,629,509 $1,461,611.43 $0.00 100% $1852020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $1,131,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,385,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,385,645 $1,224,279.97 $0.00 100% $1812021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $1,130,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,387,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,387,282 $1,247,922.46 $0.00 100% $2242022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $1,129,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,388,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,388,918 $1,272,020.93 $0.00 100% $2262023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $1,128,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,390,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,390,555 $1,296,584.17 $0.00 100% $2282024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $1,514,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,779,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,779,036 $1,774,872.24 $0.00 100% $3102025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $1,127,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,393,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,393,964 $1,347,064.89 $0.00 100% $2322026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $1,126,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,395,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,395,736 $1,372,997.74 $0.00 100% $2342027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $1,125,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,397,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,397,509 $1,399,429.09 $0.00 100% $2362028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $1,124,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,399,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,399,282 $1,426,368.49 $0.00 100% $2392029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $1,369,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,646,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,646,555 $1,771,406.12 $0.00 100% $2942030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $1,123,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,402,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,402,827 $1,481,810.64 $0.00 100% $2432031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $1,122,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,404,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,404,600 $1,510,333.45 $0.00 100% $2452032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $1,121,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,406,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,406,373 $1,539,404.45 $0.00 100% $2472033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $1,365,981.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,653,781.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,653,782 $1,912,704.32 $0.00 100% $3052034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $1,276,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,567,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,567,136 $1,823,208.27 $0.00 100% $2882035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $1,118,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,412,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,412,100 $1,629,734.66 $0.00 100% $2542036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $1,117,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,414,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,414,009 $1,661,005.51 $0.00 100% $2562037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $1,116,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,415,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,415,918 $1,692,875.30 $0.00 100% $2592038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $1,361,527.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,663,327.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,663,327 $2,104,893.48 $0.00 100% $3192039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $1,115,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,419,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,419,736 $1,758,457.71 $0.00 100% $2642040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $1,114,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,421,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,421,782 $1,792,091.54 $0.00 100% $2662041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $1,113,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,423,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,423,827 $1,826,367.34 $0.00 100% $268

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Revenues

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 2

Year

TotalDiversion Systems

ImplementationAsbestos

(loads)

Bulky items (units)

Revenues Capital Costs

TotalMixed Waste

(tonnes)Curbside Cart Replacement

Curbside Cart Replacement

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Landfill Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Capital Costs

Fees from Curbside

Cost RecoveryTotal Costs

Diversion (contract)

Rural Collections (contract)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping FeeTotal Costs

Diversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Operating Costs

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 3

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Professional Services

Diversion Systems Implementation

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Page 54: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4C

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 3 (Mandated Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 3 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,224,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,469,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,469,100 $1,224,100.00 $0.00 100% $1092017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $2,995,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,242,496.36 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,242,496 $3,054,998.29 $0.00 100% $3022018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $1,222,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,472,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,472,373 $1,271,964.67 $0.00 100% $1402019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $1,467,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,719,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,719,509 $1,557,120.15 $0.00 100% $1972020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $1,221,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,475,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,475,645 $1,321,698.87 $0.00 100% $1962021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $1,220,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,477,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,477,282 $1,347,289.73 $0.00 100% $2422022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $1,219,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,478,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,478,918 $1,373,375.55 $0.00 100% $2442023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $1,218,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,480,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,480,555 $1,399,965.88 $0.00 100% $2462024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $1,604,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,869,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,869,036 $1,880,321.58 $0.00 100% $3282025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $1,217,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,483,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,483,964 $1,454,623.22 $0.00 100% $2512026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $1,216,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,485,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,485,736 $1,482,707.24 $0.00 100% $2532027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $1,215,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,487,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,487,509 $1,511,332.78 $0.00 100% $2562028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $1,214,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,489,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,489,282 $1,540,510.25 $0.00 100% $2582029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $1,459,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,736,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,736,555 $1,887,830.72 $0.00 100% $3132030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $1,213,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,492,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,492,827 $1,600,563.73 $0.00 100% $2632031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $1,212,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,494,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,494,600 $1,631,461.60 $0.00 100% $2652032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $1,211,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,496,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,496,373 $1,662,955.16 $0.00 100% $2672033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $1,455,981.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,743,781.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,743,782 $2,038,726.05 $0.00 100% $3252034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $1,366,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,657,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,657,136 $1,951,750.43 $0.00 100% $3082035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $1,208,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,502,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,502,100 $1,760,847.66 $0.00 100% $2752036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $1,207,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,504,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,504,009 $1,794,740.77 $0.00 100% $2772037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $1,206,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,505,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,505,918 $1,829,285.27 $0.00 100% $2802038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $1,451,527.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,753,327.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,753,327 $2,244,031.66 $0.00 100% $3402039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $1,205,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,509,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,509,736 $1,900,378.65 $0.00 100% $2852040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $1,204,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,511,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,511,782 $1,936,850.89 $0.00 100% $2882041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $1,203,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,513,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,513,827 $1,974,021.88 $0.00 100% $290

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Inflated2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $634,550.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $879,550.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $634,550.00 -$634,550.00 58% $562017 1,112 11,636 5 506 13% 1568.7 10,067.3 5 506 164,934 $1,520,048.18 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,767,448.18 $1,771,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,287,496 $1,550,449.15 -$1,550,449.15 54% $1532018 1,124 11,754 5 512 24% 2788.9 8,965.1 5 512 173,899 $633,786.36 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $883,586.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $659,391.33 -$659,391.33 58% $722019 1,136 11,873 5 518 34% 4033.5 7,839.5 5 518 181,738 $756,154.55 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,008,354.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,764,509 $802,437.25 -$802,437.25 57% $1012020 1,148 11,993 5 524 44% 5303.0 6,690.0 5 524 188,428 $633,022.73 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $887,622.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $685,204.16 -$685,204.16 58% $1002021 1,160 12,115 5 530 54% 6598.2 5,516.8 5 530 193,945 $632,640.91 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $889,640.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $698,486.68 -$698,486.68 58% $1242022 1,172 12,238 5 536 54% 6665.2 5,572.8 5 536 199,518 $632,259.09 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $891,659.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $712,026.43 -$712,026.43 59% $1252023 1,184 12,362 5 542 54% 6732.7 5,629.3 5 542 205,147 $631,877.27 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $893,677.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $725,828.37 -$725,828.37 59% $1272024 1,196 12,487 5 548 54% 6800.8 5,686.2 5 548 210,833 $824,918.18 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,089,118.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $966,523.13 -$966,523.13 57% $1682025 1,209 12,614 5 554 54% 6870.0 5,744.0 5 554 216,577 $631,081.82 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $897,881.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $754,201.19 -$754,201.19 59% $1292026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 222,380 $630,668.18 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $900,068.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $768,780.99 -$768,780.99 59% $1302027 1,235 12,871 5 566 54% 7010.0 5,861.0 5 566 228,241 $630,254.55 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $902,254.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $783,642.31 -$783,642.31 59% $1312028 1,248 13,001 5 572 54% 7080.8 5,920.2 5 572 234,161 $629,840.91 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $904,440.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $798,790.56 -$798,790.56 59% $1332029 1,261 13,133 5 578 54% 7152.6 5,980.4 5 578 240,141 $752,177.27 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,029,377.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $973,021.51 -$973,021.51 58% $1602030 1,274 13,266 5 584 54% 7225.1 6,040.9 5 584 246,182 $629,013.64 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $908,813.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $829,970.13 -$829,970.13 59% $1352031 1,287 13,400 5 590 54% 7298.1 6,101.9 5 590 252,284 $628,600.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $911,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $846,012.84 -$846,012.84 59% $1362032 1,300 13,536 5 596 54% 7372.1 6,163.9 5 596 258,448 $628,186.36 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $913,186.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $862,365.26 -$862,365.26 59% $1382033 1,314 13,673 5 603 54% 7446.8 6,226.2 5 603 264,674 $750,490.91 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,038,290.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,788,782 $1,050,868.46 -$1,050,868.46 58% $1662034 1,328 13,812 5 610 54% 7522.5 6,289.5 5 610 270,964 $705,768.18 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $996,368.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $1,008,010.76 -$1,008,010.76 59% $1582035 1,342 13,952 5 617 54% 7598.7 6,353.3 5 617 277,317 $626,850.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $920,250.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $913,202.08 -$913,202.08 59% $1412036 1,356 14,093 5 624 54% 7675.5 6,417.5 5 624 283,734 $626,404.55 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $922,604.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $930,804.20 -$930,804.20 60% $1432037 1,370 14,236 5 631 54% 7753.4 6,482.6 5 631 290,217 $625,959.09 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $924,959.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $948,745.13 -$948,745.13 60% $1442038 1,384 14,380 5 638 54% 7831.8 6,548.2 5 638 296,765 $748,263.64 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,050,063.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,798,327 $1,156,800.37 -$1,156,800.37 58% $1742039 1,398 14,526 5 645 54% 7911.3 6,614.7 5 645 303,380 $625,068.18 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $929,668.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $985,669.56 -$985,669.56 60% $1472040 1,413 14,673 5 652 54% 7991.4 6,681.6 5 652 310,062 $624,590.91 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $932,190.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $1,004,615.28 -$1,004,615.28 60% $1482041 1,428 14,822 5 659 54% 8072.5 6,749.5 5 659 316,811 $624,113.64 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $934,713.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $1,023,924.57 -$1,023,924.57 60% $149

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$12,450,850.45Notes: Average Cost Recovery: 59%

(1) Increase in number of households assumed to correspond linearly to population growth rate(2) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered. Assumed to remain constant throughout the study period.(3) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered.(4) Assumes that diversion rate rises gradually from current to proposed over a period of 5 years.(5) For subsequent years, 2015 contract cost is multiplied by ratio of increased households to 2015 households.

Cost Recovery

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Diversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Landfill Expansion

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Professional

Services

Mixed Waste

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Operating Costs

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Bulky items (units)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Landfilled

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Diverted (tonnes)

Diversion Rate (4)

Landfilled

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 5

YearNumber of

Households (1)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 4

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Curbside Cart Replacement

Curbside Cart Replacement

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Revenues Capital Costs

Revenues Capital Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems Implementation

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Landfill

ExpansionWaste Tipping

Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Total CostsInflated Waste

Tipping Fee

Diversion (contract)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Total CostsInflated Waste

Tipping Fee

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Page 55: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4D

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $569,812.62 -$699,287.38 54% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $512,442.69 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $759,842.69 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,292,496 $522,691.54 -$2,583,306.75 23% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $453,840.33 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $703,640.33 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $472,175.47 -$846,607.19 46% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $393,989.25 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $646,189.25 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,764,509 $418,104.54 -$1,186,769.96 37% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $332,873.18 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $587,473.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $360,312.63 -$1,010,095.69 39% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $270,497.07 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $527,497.07 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $298,650.63 -$1,098,322.74 35% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $273,230.35 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $532,630.35 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $307,701.75 -$1,116,351.10 35% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $275,984.87 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $537,784.87 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $317,019.87 -$1,134,636.87 35% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $278,760.64 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $542,960.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $326,612.52 -$1,606,433.73 28% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $281,578.90 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $548,378.90 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $336,512.85 -$1,171,889.53 36% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $284,418.41 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $553,818.41 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $346,704.45 -$1,190,857.54 36% $622027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $287,279.16 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $559,279.16 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $357,195.53 -$1,210,089.09 36% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $290,161.16 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $564,761.16 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $367,994.51 -$1,229,586.62 37% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $293,085.65 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $570,285.65 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $379,137.54 -$1,566,905.47 32% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $296,031.39 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $575,831.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $390,607.13 -$1,269,333.14 37% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $298,998.37 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $581,398.37 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $402,412.44 -$1,289,613.23 38% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $302,007.85 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $587,007.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $414,592.06 -$1,310,138.46 38% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $305,058.57 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $592,858.57 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $427,155.65 -$1,330,822.00 38% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $308,151.79 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $598,751.79 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,947,636 $440,116.63 -$1,926,539.34 31% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $311,266.25 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $604,666.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $453,456.14 -$1,372,948.02 39% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $314,401.95 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $610,601.95 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $467,184.76 -$1,394,423.64 39% $762037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $317,580.15 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $616,580.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $481,345.55 -$1,416,144.71 40% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $320,779.60 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $622,579.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $495,918.74 -$1,438,144.00 40% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $324,021.53 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $628,621.53 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,800,236 $510,949.32 -$1,847,518.56 35% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $327,284.72 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $634,884.72 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $526,416.93 -$1,482,813.64 41% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $330,590.39 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $641,190.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $542,368.58 -$1,505,480.56 41% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$18,950,474.11Average Cost Recovery: 37%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,269,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,514,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $1,269,100.00 $0.00 100% $1132017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $3,045,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,292,496.36 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,292,496 $3,105,998.29 $0.00 100% $3092018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $1,267,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,517,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $1,318,782.67 $0.00 100% $1482019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $1,512,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,764,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,764,509 $1,604,874.51 $0.00 100% $2092020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $1,266,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,520,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $1,370,408.32 $0.00 100% $2122021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $1,265,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,522,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $1,396,973.37 $0.00 100% $2692022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $1,264,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,523,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $1,424,052.85 $0.00 100% $2712023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $1,263,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,525,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $1,451,656.73 $0.00 100% $2742024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $1,649,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,914,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $1,933,046.25 $0.00 100% $3622025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $1,262,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,528,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $1,508,402.38 $0.00 100% $2792026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $1,261,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,530,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $1,537,561.99 $0.00 100% $2812027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $1,260,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,532,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $1,567,284.62 $0.00 100% $2842028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $1,259,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,534,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $1,597,581.13 $0.00 100% $2872029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $1,504,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,781,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $1,946,043.01 $0.00 100% $3462030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $1,258,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,537,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $1,659,940.27 $0.00 100% $2922031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $1,257,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,539,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $1,692,025.67 $0.00 100% $2952032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $1,256,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,541,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $1,724,730.52 $0.00 100% $2972033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $1,255,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,543,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $1,757,977.64 $0.00 100% $3002034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $1,657,036.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,947,636.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,947,636 $2,366,655.97 $0.00 100% $4012035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $1,253,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,547,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $1,826,404.17 $0.00 100% $3062036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $1,252,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,549,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $1,861,608.41 $0.00 100% $3082037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $1,251,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,550,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $1,897,490.25 $0.00 100% $3112038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $1,251,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,552,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $1,934,062.73 $0.00 100% $3142039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $1,495,636.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,800,236.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,800,236 $2,358,467.88 $0.00 100% $3802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $1,249,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,556,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $2,009,230.57 $0.00 100% $3202041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $1,248,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,558,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $2,047,849.15 $0.00 100% $323

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Landfill Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Total CostsInflated Waste

Tipping Fee

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Curbside Cart Replacement

Curbside Cart ReplacementYear

Number of Households (1)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 1

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Diversion

Rate (4)Diverted (tonnes)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

LandfilledCumulative

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationDiversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Revenues

Total Costs

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 0Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Diversion Systems

Implementation

Landfilled

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Capital Costs

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Fees from Curbside

Diversion (contract)Total

Page 56: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4D

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 2 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,244,100 $569,812.62 -$429,287.38 65% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $512,442.69 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $759,842.69 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,022,496 $522,691.54 -$2,307,906.75 25% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $453,840.33 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $703,640.33 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,247,373 $472,175.47 -$565,699.19 56% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $393,989.25 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $646,189.25 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,494,509 $418,104.54 -$900,243.80 43% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $332,873.18 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $587,473.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,250,645 $360,312.63 -$717,839.00 47% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $270,497.07 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $527,497.07 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,252,282 $298,650.63 -$800,220.92 42% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $273,230.35 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $532,630.35 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,253,918 $307,701.75 -$812,287.25 42% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $275,984.87 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $537,784.87 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,255,555 $317,019.87 -$824,491.74 43% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $278,760.64 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $542,960.64 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,644,036 $326,612.52 -$1,290,085.70 33% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $281,578.90 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $548,378.90 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,258,964 $336,512.85 -$849,214.54 44% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $284,418.41 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $553,818.41 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,260,736 $346,704.45 -$861,729.04 44% $622027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $287,279.16 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $559,279.16 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,262,509 $357,195.53 -$874,378.03 44% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $290,161.16 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $564,761.16 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,264,282 $367,994.51 -$887,161.33 45% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $293,085.65 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $570,285.65 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,511,555 $379,137.54 -$1,217,631.68 38% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $296,031.39 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $575,831.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,267,827 $390,607.13 -$913,073.87 45% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $298,998.37 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $581,398.37 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,269,600 $402,412.44 -$926,228.78 46% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $302,007.85 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $587,007.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,271,373 $414,592.06 -$939,486.32 46% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $305,058.57 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $592,858.57 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,273,282 $427,155.65 -$952,756.81 47% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $308,151.79 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $598,751.79 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,677,636 $440,116.63 -$1,540,912.85 36% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $311,266.25 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $604,666.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,277,100 $453,456.14 -$979,609.01 47% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $314,401.95 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $610,601.95 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,279,009 $467,184.76 -$993,217.85 48% $762037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $317,580.15 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $616,580.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,280,918 $481,345.55 -$1,006,914.79 48% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $320,779.60 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $622,579.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,282,827 $495,918.74 -$1,020,729.48 49% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $324,021.53 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $628,621.53 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,530,236 $510,949.32 -$1,421,755.76 41% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $327,284.72 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $634,884.72 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,286,782 $526,416.93 -$1,048,535.58 49% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $330,590.39 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $641,190.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,288,827 $542,368.58 -$1,062,516.95 50% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$14,186,174.17Average Cost Recovery: 45%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,134,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,379,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,379,100 $1,134,100.00 $0.00 100% $1012017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $2,910,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,157,496.36 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,157,496 $2,968,298.29 $0.00 100% $2962018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $1,132,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,382,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,382,373 $1,178,328.67 $0.00 100% $1322019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $1,377,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,629,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,629,509 $1,461,611.43 $0.00 100% $1902020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $1,131,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,385,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,385,645 $1,224,279.97 $0.00 100% $1892021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $1,130,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,387,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,387,282 $1,247,922.46 $0.00 100% $2402022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $1,129,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,388,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,388,918 $1,272,020.93 $0.00 100% $2422023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $1,128,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,390,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,390,555 $1,296,584.17 $0.00 100% $2442024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $1,514,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,779,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,779,036 $1,774,872.24 $0.00 100% $3322025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $1,127,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,393,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,393,964 $1,347,064.89 $0.00 100% $2492026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $1,126,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,395,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,395,736 $1,372,997.74 $0.00 100% $2512027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $1,125,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,397,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,397,509 $1,399,429.09 $0.00 100% $2532028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $1,124,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,399,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,399,282 $1,426,368.49 $0.00 100% $2562029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $1,369,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,646,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,646,555 $1,771,406.12 $0.00 100% $3152030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $1,123,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,402,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,402,827 $1,481,810.64 $0.00 100% $2602031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $1,122,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,404,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,404,600 $1,510,333.45 $0.00 100% $2632032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $1,121,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,406,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,406,373 $1,539,404.45 $0.00 100% $2652033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $1,120,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,408,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,408,282 $1,568,945.05 $0.00 100% $2682034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $1,522,036.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,812,636.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,812,636 $2,173,842.73 $0.00 100% $3682035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $1,118,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,412,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,412,100 $1,629,734.66 $0.00 100% $2722036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $1,117,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,414,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,414,009 $1,661,005.51 $0.00 100% $2752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $1,116,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,415,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,415,918 $1,692,875.30 $0.00 100% $2772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $1,116,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,417,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,417,827 $1,725,355.48 $0.00 100% $2802039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $1,360,636.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,665,236.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,665,236 $2,145,586.48 $0.00 100% $3452040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $1,114,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,421,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,421,782 $1,792,091.54 $0.00 100% $2852041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $1,113,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,423,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,423,827 $1,826,367.34 $0.00 100% $287

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Curbside Collections (contract)(5) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Curbside Cart Replacement

Curbside Cart Replacement

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 3

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationDiversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Revenues Capital Costs

Cost Recovery

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 2

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Revenues Capital Costs

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Landfill

Expansion

Landfill Expansion

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationDiversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Cost

Recovery

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)Professional

ServicesInflated Net Cash

Flow

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Page 57: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4D

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 4 (Comprehensive Diversion)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 3 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $1,224,100.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,469,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,469,100 $1,224,100.00 $0.00 100% $1092017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $3,000,096.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $3,247,496.36 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,247,496 $3,060,098.29 $0.00 100% $3052018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $1,222,572.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,472,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,472,373 $1,271,964.67 $0.00 100% $1432019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $1,467,309.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,719,509.09 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,719,509 $1,557,120.15 $0.00 100% $2032020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $1,221,045.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,475,645.45 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,475,645 $1,321,698.87 $0.00 100% $2052021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $1,220,281.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,477,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,477,282 $1,347,289.73 $0.00 100% $2592022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $1,219,518.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,478,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,478,918 $1,373,375.55 $0.00 100% $2622023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $1,218,754.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,480,554.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,480,555 $1,399,965.88 $0.00 100% $2642024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $1,604,836.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,869,036.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,869,036 $1,880,321.58 $0.00 100% $3522025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $1,217,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,483,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,483,964 $1,454,623.22 $0.00 100% $2692026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $1,216,336.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,485,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,485,736 $1,482,707.24 $0.00 100% $2712027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $1,215,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,487,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,487,509 $1,511,332.78 $0.00 100% $2742028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $1,214,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,489,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,489,282 $1,540,510.25 $0.00 100% $2762029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $1,459,354.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,736,554.55 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,736,555 $1,887,830.72 $0.00 100% $3362030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $1,213,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,492,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,492,827 $1,600,563.73 $0.00 100% $2812031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $1,212,200.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,494,600.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,494,600 $1,631,461.60 $0.00 100% $2842032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $1,211,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,496,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,496,373 $1,662,955.16 $0.00 100% $2872033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $1,210,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,498,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,498,282 $1,694,966.78 $0.00 100% $2892034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $1,612,036.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,902,636.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,902,636 $2,302,384.89 $0.00 100% $3902035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $1,208,700.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,502,100.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,502,100 $1,760,847.66 $0.00 100% $2952036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $1,207,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,504,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,504,009 $1,794,740.77 $0.00 100% $2972037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $1,206,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,505,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,505,918 $1,829,285.27 $0.00 100% $3002038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $1,206,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,507,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,507,827 $1,864,493.65 $0.00 100% $3032039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $1,450,636.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,755,236.36 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,755,236 $2,287,507.41 $0.00 100% $3682040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $1,204,181.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,511,781.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,511,782 $1,936,850.89 $0.00 100% $3082041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $1,203,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,513,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,513,827 $1,974,021.88 $0.00 100% $311

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Inflated2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $634,550.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $879,550.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $456,100 $1,514,100 $634,550.00 -$634,550.00 58% $562017 1,112 11,636 5 506 14% 1639.5 9,996.5 5 506 164,863 $1,522,548.18 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,769,948.18 $1,776,760 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $456,100 $3,292,496 $1,552,999.15 -$1,552,999.15 54% $1542018 1,124 11,754 5 512 25% 2932.0 8,822.0 5 512 173,685 $633,786.36 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $883,586.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $456,100 $1,517,373 $659,391.33 -$659,391.33 58% $732019 1,136 11,873 5 518 36% 4250.4 7,622.6 5 518 181,307 $633,404.55 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $885,604.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $456,100 $1,519,009 $672,173.97 -$672,173.97 58% $862020 1,148 11,993 5 524 47% 5595.1 6,397.9 5 524 187,705 $633,022.73 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $887,622.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $456,100 $1,520,645 $685,204.16 -$685,204.16 58% $1052021 1,160 12,115 5 530 58% 6967.1 5,147.9 5 530 192,853 $632,640.91 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $889,640.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $456,100 $1,522,282 $698,486.68 -$698,486.68 58% $1332022 1,172 12,238 5 536 58% 7037.8 5,200.2 5 536 198,053 $632,259.09 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $891,659.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $456,100 $1,523,918 $712,026.43 -$712,026.43 59% $1342023 1,184 12,362 5 542 58% 7109.1 5,252.9 5 542 203,306 $631,877.27 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $893,677.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $456,100 $1,525,555 $725,828.37 -$725,828.37 59% $1362024 1,196 12,487 5 548 58% 7181.0 5,306.0 5 548 208,612 $824,918.18 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,089,118.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,914,036 $966,523.13 -$966,523.13 57% $1802025 1,209 12,614 5 554 58% 7254.0 5,360.0 5 554 213,972 $631,081.82 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $897,881.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $754,201.19 -$754,201.19 59% $1382026 1,222 12,742 5 560 58% 7327.6 5,414.4 5 560 219,387 $630,668.18 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $900,068.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,530,736 $768,780.99 -$768,780.99 59% $1392027 1,235 12,871 5 566 58% 7401.8 5,469.2 5 566 224,856 $630,254.55 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $902,254.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $783,642.31 -$783,642.31 59% $1412028 1,248 13,001 5 572 58% 7476.6 5,524.4 5 572 230,380 $629,840.91 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $904,440.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $798,790.56 -$798,790.56 59% $1422029 1,261 13,133 5 578 58% 7552.5 5,580.5 5 578 235,961 $752,177.27 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,029,377.27 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,781,555 $973,021.51 -$973,021.51 58% $1722030 1,274 13,266 5 584 58% 7629.0 5,637.0 5 584 241,598 $629,013.64 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $908,813.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $829,970.13 -$829,970.13 59% $1452031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 247,292 $628,600.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $911,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,539,600 $846,012.84 -$846,012.84 59% $1462032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 253,043 $628,186.36 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $913,186.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $862,365.26 -$862,365.26 59% $1472033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 258,853 $627,740.91 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $915,540.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $878,988.82 -$878,988.82 59% $1492034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 264,723 $828,518.18 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,119,118.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,947,636 $1,183,327.98 -$1,183,327.98 57% $1992035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 270,651 $626,850.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $920,250.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,547,100 $913,202.08 -$913,202.08 59% $1522036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 276,639 $626,404.55 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $922,604.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $930,804.20 -$930,804.20 60% $1532037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 282,689 $625,959.09 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $924,959.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $948,745.13 -$948,745.13 60% $1542038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 288,799 $625,513.64 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $927,313.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $967,031.37 -$967,031.37 60% $1562039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 294,971 $747,818.18 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,052,418.18 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,800,236 $1,179,233.94 -$1,179,233.94 58% $1892040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 301,206 $624,590.91 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $932,190.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,556,782 $1,004,615.28 -$1,004,615.28 60% $1592041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 307,505 $624,113.64 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $934,713.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $1,023,924.57 -$1,023,924.57 60% $160

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$12,342,189.65Notes: Average Cost Recovery: 59%

(1) Increase in number of households assumed to correspond linearly to population growth rate(2) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered. Assumed to remain constant throughout the study period.(3) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered.(4) Assumes that diversion rate rises gradually from current to proposed over a period of 5 years.(5) For subsequent years, 2015 contract cost is multiplied by ratio of increased households to 2015 households.

Curbside Cart Replacement

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Revenues Capital Costs

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Revenues Capital CostsLandfilled

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 4

YearNumber of

Households (1)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 5

YearNumber of

Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

Implementation

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Landfill Expansion

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Waste Tipping Fees

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationDiversion (contract)

Operating Costs

Landfill Closure

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost

per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5) Total Costs

Inflated Waste Tipping Fee

Cost Recovery

Total amount of waste

Mixed Waste

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Landifll operating cost

per year (admin)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Landfilled

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Page 58: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4E

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 5 (Staged Implementation)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 1 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $569,812.62 -$243,187.38 -$243,187.38 77% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $550,790.61 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $798,190.61 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $1,219,016 $561,806.43 -$420,825.75 -$429,242.26 65% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $531,313.94 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $781,113.94 $110,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,500,273 $552,779.03 -$719,158.78 -$748,212.80 52% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $511,376.21 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $763,576.21 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $1,146,409 $542,676.53 -$382,832.88 -$406,265.31 67% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $490,971.03 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $745,571.03 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,528,045 $531,442.84 -$1,782,474.42 -$1,929,407.64 29% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $470,129.73 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $727,129.73 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,766,062 $519,061.21 -$1,038,932.09 -$1,147,064.98 41% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $438,283.81 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $697,683.81 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,783,318 $493,578.75 -$1,085,634.37 -$1,222,600.63 39% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $405,733.80 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $667,533.80 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,504,955 $466,060.60 -$837,420.75 -$961,933.21 44% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $372,470.73 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $636,670.73 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,823,536 $436,408.83 -$1,186,865.63 -$1,390,602.25 35% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $338,511.39 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $605,311.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $404,552.44 -$923,652.25 -$1,103,849.94 40% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $303,815.06 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $573,215.06 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,826,236 $370,348.86 -$1,253,021.31 -$1,527,425.98 31% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $302,953.58 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $574,953.58 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $376,684.69 -$957,555.51 -$1,190,599.93 38% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $302,035.71 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $576,635.71 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $383,054.31 -$957,646.11 -$1,214,526.82 38% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $301,082.39 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $578,282.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,536,055 $389,482.18 -$957,772.15 -$1,238,980.41 38% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $300,070.25 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $579,870.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $395,936.32 -$957,957.02 -$1,264,003.95 38% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $298,998.37 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $581,398.37 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,790,100 $402,412.44 -$1,208,701.63 -$1,626,753.25 32% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $302,007.85 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $587,007.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $414,592.06 -$954,364.88 -$1,310,138.46 38% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $305,058.57 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $592,858.57 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $427,155.65 -$950,423.25 -$1,330,822.00 38% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $308,151.79 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $598,751.79 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $440,116.63 -$1,103,384.58 -$1,575,904.88 35% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $311,266.25 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $604,666.25 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,792,600 $453,456.14 -$1,187,933.75 -$1,730,595.16 34% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $314,401.95 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $610,601.95 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $467,184.76 -$938,407.14 -$1,394,423.64 39% $762037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $317,580.15 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $616,580.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $481,345.55 -$934,338.03 -$1,416,144.71 40% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $320,779.60 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $622,579.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $495,918.74 -$930,247.68 -$1,438,144.00 40% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $324,021.53 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $628,621.53 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $510,949.32 -$926,114.83 -$1,460,389.79 40% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $327,284.72 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $634,884.72 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,802,282 $526,416.93 -$1,167,397.10 -$1,877,684.98 35% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $330,590.39 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $641,190.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $542,368.58 -$917,636.88 -$1,505,480.56 41% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$16,526,381.59Average Cost Recovery: 42%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $813,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,058,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $813,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $722017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $971,616.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,219,016.36 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $1,219,016 $991,048.69 $0.00 $0.00 100% $912018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,250,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,500,272.73 $110,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,500,273 $1,300,991.83 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1242019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $894,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,146,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $1,146,409 $948,941.84 $0.00 $0.00 100% $942020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $2,273,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $2,528,045.45 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,528,045 $2,460,850.47 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2562021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,509,061.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,766,061.82 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,766,062 $1,666,126.18 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1812022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $1,523,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,783,318.18 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,783,318 $1,716,179.39 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2002023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $1,243,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,504,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,504,955 $1,427,993.81 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1802024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $1,559,336.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,823,536.36 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,823,536 $1,827,011.08 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2532025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $1,262,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,528,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $1,508,402.38 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2302026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $1,556,836.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,826,236.36 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,826,236 $1,897,774.84 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3252027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $1,260,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,532,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $1,567,284.62 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2692028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $1,259,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,534,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $1,597,581.13 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2752029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $1,258,854.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,536,054.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,536,055 $1,628,462.59 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2812030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $1,258,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,537,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $1,659,940.27 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2882031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $1,507,700.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,790,100.00 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,790,100 $2,029,165.69 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3542032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $1,256,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,541,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $1,724,730.52 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2972033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $1,255,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,543,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $1,757,977.64 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3002034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $1,411,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,702,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $2,016,021.51 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3412035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $1,499,200.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,792,600.00 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,792,600 $2,184,051.31 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3662036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $1,252,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,549,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $1,861,608.41 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3082037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $1,251,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,550,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $1,897,490.25 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3112038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $1,251,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,552,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $1,934,062.73 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3142039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $1,250,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,554,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $1,971,339.11 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3172040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $1,494,681.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,802,281.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,802,282 $2,404,101.91 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3832041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $1,248,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,558,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $2,047,849.15 $0.00 $0.00 100% $323

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill Closure

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

ExpansionInflated Net Cash

FlowCost

Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Waste Tipping

FeesProfessional

Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)Year

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes) Waste Tipping Fees

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 1

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill ClosureYear

Number of Households (1)

Curbside Cart Replacement

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 0

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

ExpansionCurbside Cart Replacement

Page 59: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4E

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 5 (Staged Implementation)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 2 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $569,812.62 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $814,812.62 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $296,813 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $814,813 $569,812.62 $0.00 $0.00 100% $502017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $550,790.61 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $798,190.61 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $949,016 $561,806.43 -$150,825.75 -$153,842.26 84% $512018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $531,313.94 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $781,113.94 $110,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,230,273 $552,779.03 -$449,158.78 -$467,304.80 63% $522019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $511,376.21 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $763,576.21 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $876,409 $542,676.53 -$112,832.88 -$119,739.15 87% $532020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $490,971.03 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $745,571.03 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,258,045 $531,442.84 -$1,512,474.42 -$1,637,150.96 33% $542021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $470,129.73 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $727,129.73 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,496,062 $519,061.21 -$768,932.09 -$848,963.16 49% $552022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $438,283.81 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $697,683.81 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,513,318 $493,578.75 -$815,634.37 -$918,536.78 46% $572023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $405,733.80 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $667,533.80 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,234,955 $466,060.60 -$567,420.75 -$651,788.08 54% $582024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $372,470.73 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $636,670.73 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,553,536 $436,408.83 -$916,865.63 -$1,074,254.22 41% $592025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $338,511.39 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $605,311.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,258,964 $404,552.44 -$653,652.25 -$781,174.94 48% $602026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $303,815.06 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $573,215.06 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,556,236 $370,348.86 -$983,021.31 -$1,198,297.49 37% $612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $302,953.58 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $574,953.58 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,262,509 $376,684.69 -$687,555.51 -$854,888.86 46% $632028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $302,035.71 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $576,635.71 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,264,282 $383,054.31 -$687,646.11 -$872,101.54 46% $642029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $301,082.39 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $578,282.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,266,055 $389,482.18 -$687,772.15 -$889,706.62 46% $652030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $300,070.25 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $579,870.25 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,267,827 $395,936.32 -$687,957.02 -$907,744.68 46% $672031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $298,998.37 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $581,398.37 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,520,100 $402,412.44 -$938,701.63 -$1,263,368.80 38% $682032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $302,007.85 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $587,007.85 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,271,373 $414,592.06 -$684,364.88 -$939,486.32 46% $702033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $305,058.57 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $592,858.57 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,273,282 $427,155.65 -$680,423.25 -$952,756.81 47% $712034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $308,151.79 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $598,751.79 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,432,136 $440,116.63 -$833,384.58 -$1,190,278.40 42% $722035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $311,266.25 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $604,666.25 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,522,600 $453,456.14 -$917,933.75 -$1,337,256.15 40% $742036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $314,401.95 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $610,601.95 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,279,009 $467,184.76 -$668,407.14 -$993,217.85 48% $762037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $317,580.15 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $616,580.15 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,280,918 $481,345.55 -$664,338.03 -$1,006,914.79 48% $772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $320,779.60 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $622,579.60 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,282,827 $495,918.74 -$660,247.68 -$1,020,729.48 49% $792039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $324,021.53 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $628,621.53 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,284,736 $510,949.32 -$656,114.83 -$1,034,626.99 49% $802040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $327,284.72 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $634,884.72 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,532,282 $526,416.93 -$897,397.10 -$1,443,406.92 41% $822041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $330,590.39 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $641,190.39 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $270,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,288,827 $542,368.58 -$647,636.88 -$1,062,516.95 50% $84

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$11,787,617.48Average Cost Recovery: 51%

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $678,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $923,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $923,000 $678,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $602017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $836,616.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,084,016.36 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $1,084,016 $853,348.69 $0.00 $0.00 100% $782018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,115,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,365,272.73 $110,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,365,273 $1,160,537.83 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1112019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $759,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,011,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $1,011,409 $805,678.76 $0.00 $0.00 100% $802020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $2,138,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $2,393,045.45 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,393,045 $2,314,722.13 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2412021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,374,061.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,631,061.82 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,631,062 $1,517,075.28 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1652022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $1,388,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,648,318.18 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,648,318 $1,564,147.46 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1822023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $1,108,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,369,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,369,955 $1,272,921.24 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1602024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $1,424,336.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,688,536.36 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,688,536 $1,668,837.06 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2312025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $1,127,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,393,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,393,964 $1,347,064.89 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2052026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $1,421,836.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,691,236.36 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,691,236 $1,733,210.59 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2962027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $1,125,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,397,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,397,509 $1,399,429.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2402028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $1,124,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,399,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,399,282 $1,426,368.49 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2452029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $1,123,854.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,401,054.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,401,055 $1,453,825.69 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2512030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $1,123,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,402,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,402,827 $1,481,810.64 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2572031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $1,372,700.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,655,100.00 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,655,100 $1,847,473.47 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3222032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $1,121,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,406,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,406,373 $1,539,404.45 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2652033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $1,120,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,408,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,408,282 $1,568,945.05 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2682034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $1,276,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,567,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,567,136 $1,823,208.27 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3082035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $1,364,200.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,657,600.00 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,657,600 $1,987,381.80 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3332036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $1,117,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,414,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,414,009 $1,661,005.51 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2752037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $1,116,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,415,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,415,918 $1,692,875.30 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2772038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $1,116,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,417,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,417,827 $1,725,355.48 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2802039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $1,115,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,419,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,419,736 $1,758,457.71 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2822040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $1,359,681.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,667,281.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,667,282 $2,186,962.88 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3482041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $1,113,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,423,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $405,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,423,827 $1,826,367.34 $0.00 $0.00 100% $287

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill Closure

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Non-Inflated Net

Cash FlowInflated Net Cash

FlowCost

Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Waste Tipping

FeesProfessional

Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)Year

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 3

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill ClosureYear

Number of Households (1)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste (tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Waste Tipping

Fees

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 2

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow

Landfill Expansion

Curbside Cart Replacement

Page 60: Figure Index Table Index - Northern Rockies Regional ... · PDF fileFigure 8.2 Tipping Fee Changes and Resulting NPV for Breakeven Cost Recovery ... MMBC diverted packaging 9.0 0.08%

Table 8.4E

Cash Flow Forecast - Scenario 5 (Staged Implementation)Solid Waste Management Plan - Stage 2 Report

Northern Rockies Regional Municipality Fort Nelson, British Columbia

Page 3 of 3

GHD 057580 (18)

2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $768,000.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $1,013,000.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,013,000 $768,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 100% $682017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $926,616.36 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $1,174,016.36 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $1,174,016 $945,148.69 $0.00 $0.00 100% $872018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $1,205,472.73 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $1,455,272.73 $110,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,455,273 $1,254,173.83 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1202019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $849,209.09 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $1,101,409.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $1,101,409 $901,187.48 $0.00 $0.00 100% $892020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $2,228,445.45 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $2,483,045.45 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,483,045 $2,412,141.03 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2512021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $1,464,061.82 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,721,061.82 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,721,062 $1,616,442.55 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1752022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $1,478,918.18 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,738,318.18 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,738,318 $1,665,502.08 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1942023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $1,198,154.55 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $1,459,954.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,459,955 $1,376,302.95 $0.00 $0.00 100% $1742024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $1,514,336.36 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,778,536.36 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,778,536 $1,774,286.41 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2452025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $1,217,163.64 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $1,483,963.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,483,964 $1,454,623.22 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2222026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $1,511,836.36 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,781,236.36 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,781,236 $1,842,920.09 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3152027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $1,215,509.09 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $1,487,509.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,487,509 $1,511,332.78 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2592028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $1,214,681.82 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $1,489,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,489,282 $1,540,510.25 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2652029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $1,213,854.55 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $1,491,054.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,491,055 $1,570,250.29 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2712030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $1,213,027.27 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $1,492,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,492,827 $1,600,563.73 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2772031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $1,462,700.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,745,100.00 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,745,100 $1,968,601.62 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3432032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $1,211,372.73 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $1,496,372.73 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,496,373 $1,662,955.16 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2872033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $1,210,481.82 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $1,498,281.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,498,282 $1,694,966.78 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2892034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $1,366,536.36 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $1,657,136.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,657,136 $1,951,750.43 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3302035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $1,454,200.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,747,600.00 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,747,600 $2,118,494.81 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3552036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $1,207,809.09 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $1,504,009.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,504,009 $1,794,740.77 $0.00 $0.00 100% $2972037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $1,206,918.18 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $1,505,918.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,505,918 $1,829,285.27 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3002038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $1,206,027.27 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $1,507,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,507,827 $1,864,493.65 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3032039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $1,205,136.36 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $1,509,736.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,509,736 $1,900,378.65 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3052040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $1,449,681.82 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,757,281.82 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,757,282 $2,331,722.24 $0.00 $0.00 100% $3712041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $1,203,227.27 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $1,513,827.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $50,000 $495,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,513,827 $1,974,021.88 $0.00 $0.00 100% $311

NPV - 25 year: N/A $0.00Average Cost Recovery: 100%

Inflated2015 143,7202016 1,100 11,519 5 500 3% 372.7 11,146.3 5 500 154,866 $406,500.00 $25,000.00 $220,000.00 $651,500.00 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $150,000 $0 $1,058,000 $406,500.00 -$406,500.00 -$406,500.00 62% $352017 1,112 11,636 5 506 7% 872.6 10,763.4 5 506 165,630 $485,808.18 $25,000.00 $222,400.00 $733,208.18 $125,880 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $151,636 $33,500 $1,219,016 $495,524.35 -$485,808.18 -$495,524.35 60% $452018 1,124 11,754 5 512 12% 1382.5 10,371.5 5 512 176,001 $502,486.36 $25,000.00 $224,800.00 $752,286.36 $110,000 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $153,273 $83,500 $1,254,773 $522,786.81 -$502,486.36 -$522,786.81 60% $492019 1,136 11,873 5 518 16% 1902.7 9,970.3 5 518 185,972 $447,104.55 $25,000.00 $227,200.00 $699,304.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $154,909 $83,500 $1,146,409 $474,470.92 -$447,104.55 -$474,470.92 61% $462020 1,148 11,993 5 524 20% 2433.2 9,559.8 5 524 195,531 $1,136,722.73 $25,000.00 $229,600.00 $1,391,322.73 $1,030,000 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $156,545 $433,500 $2,528,045 $1,230,425.24 -$1,136,722.73 -$1,230,425.24 55% $1272021 1,160 12,115 5 530 25% 2974.4 9,140.6 5 530 204,672 $754,530.91 $25,000.00 $232,000.00 $1,011,530.91 $20,880 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $158,182 $433,500 $1,766,062 $833,063.09 -$754,530.91 -$833,063.09 57% $902022 1,172 12,238 5 536 31% 3736.7 8,501.3 5 536 213,173 $761,959.09 $25,000.00 $234,400.00 $1,021,359.09 $280,000 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $159,818 $435,500 $1,783,318 $858,089.69 -$761,959.09 -$858,089.69 57% $992023 1,184 12,362 5 542 37% 4514.1 7,847.9 5 542 221,021 $621,577.27 $25,000.00 $236,800.00 $883,377.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $161,455 $435,500 $1,504,955 $713,996.90 -$621,577.27 -$713,996.90 59% $892024 1,196 12,487 5 548 42% 5306.8 7,180.2 5 548 228,201 $779,668.18 $25,000.00 $239,200.00 $1,043,868.18 $155,000 $0 $100,000 $141,345 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $163,091 $456,100 $1,823,536 $913,505.54 -$779,668.18 -$913,505.54 57% $1252025 1,209 12,614 5 554 48% 6115.4 6,498.6 5 554 234,700 $631,081.82 $25,000.00 $241,800.00 $897,881.82 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $164,864 $456,100 $1,528,964 $754,201.19 -$631,081.82 -$754,201.19 59% $1142026 1,222 12,742 5 560 54% 6939.7 5,802.3 5 560 240,502 $778,418.18 $25,000.00 $244,400.00 $1,047,818.18 $50,000 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $166,636 $456,100 $1,826,236 $948,887.42 -$778,418.18 -$948,887.42 57% $1612027 1,235 12,871 5 566 55% 7088.3 5,782.7 5 566 246,285 $630,254.55 $25,000.00 $247,000.00 $902,254.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $168,409 $456,100 $1,532,509 $783,642.31 -$630,254.55 -$783,642.31 59% $1332028 1,248 13,001 5 572 56% 7239.1 5,761.9 5 572 252,047 $629,840.91 $25,000.00 $249,600.00 $904,440.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $170,182 $456,100 $1,534,282 $798,790.56 -$629,840.91 -$798,790.56 59% $1362029 1,261 13,133 5 578 56% 7392.6 5,740.4 5 578 257,787 $629,427.27 $25,000.00 $252,200.00 $906,627.27 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $171,955 $456,100 $1,536,055 $814,231.29 -$629,427.27 -$814,231.29 59% $1392030 1,274 13,266 5 584 57% 7548.2 5,717.8 5 584 263,505 $629,013.64 $25,000.00 $254,800.00 $908,813.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $173,727 $456,100 $1,537,827 $829,970.13 -$629,013.64 -$829,970.13 59% $1432031 1,287 13,400 5 590 58% 7706.0 5,694.0 5 590 269,199 $753,850.00 $25,000.00 $257,400.00 $1,036,250.00 $5,000 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $175,500 $456,100 $1,790,100 $1,014,582.85 -$753,850.00 -$1,014,582.85 58% $1762032 1,300 13,536 5 596 58% 7784.2 5,751.8 5 596 274,951 $628,186.36 $25,000.00 $260,000.00 $913,186.36 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $177,273 $456,100 $1,541,373 $862,365.26 -$628,186.36 -$862,365.26 59% $1472033 1,314 13,673 5 603 58% 7863.0 5,810.0 5 603 280,761 $627,740.91 $25,000.00 $262,800.00 $915,540.91 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $179,182 $456,100 $1,543,282 $878,988.82 -$627,740.91 -$878,988.82 59% $1492034 1,328 13,812 5 610 58% 7943.0 5,869.0 5 610 286,630 $705,768.18 $25,000.00 $265,600.00 $996,368.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $156,945 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $181,091 $456,100 $1,702,136 $1,008,010.76 -$705,768.18 -$1,008,010.76 59% $1692035 1,342 13,952 5 617 58% 8023.5 5,928.5 5 617 292,558 $749,600.00 $25,000.00 $268,400.00 $1,043,000.00 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $183,000 $456,100 $1,792,600 $1,092,025.65 -$749,600.00 -$1,092,025.65 58% $1822036 1,356 14,093 5 624 58% 8104.6 5,988.4 5 624 298,547 $626,404.55 $25,000.00 $271,200.00 $922,604.55 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $184,909 $456,100 $1,549,009 $930,804.20 -$626,404.55 -$930,804.20 60% $1532037 1,370 14,236 5 631 58% 8186.8 6,049.2 5 631 304,596 $625,959.09 $25,000.00 $274,000.00 $924,959.09 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $186,818 $456,100 $1,550,918 $948,745.13 -$625,959.09 -$948,745.13 60% $1542038 1,384 14,380 5 638 58% 8269.6 6,110.4 5 638 310,706 $625,513.64 $25,000.00 $276,800.00 $927,313.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $188,727 $456,100 $1,552,827 $967,031.37 -$625,513.64 -$967,031.37 60% $1562039 1,398 14,526 5 645 58% 8353.6 6,172.4 5 645 316,879 $625,068.18 $25,000.00 $279,600.00 $929,668.18 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $190,636 $456,100 $1,554,736 $985,669.56 -$625,068.18 -$985,669.56 60% $1572040 1,413 14,673 5 652 58% 8438.1 6,234.9 5 652 323,114 $747,340.91 $25,000.00 $282,600.00 $1,054,940.91 $0 $245,500 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $192,682 $456,100 $1,802,282 $1,202,050.96 -$747,340.91 -$1,202,050.96 59% $1902041 1,428 14,822 5 659 58% 8523.8 6,298.2 5 659 329,412 $624,113.64 $25,000.00 $285,600.00 $934,713.64 $0 $0 $100,000 $50,000 $540,000 $48,000 $170,000 $194,727 $456,100 $1,558,827 $1,023,924.57 -$624,113.64 -$1,023,924.57 60% $160

NPV - 25 year: N/A -$11,573,053.70Notes: Average Cost Recovery: 59%

(1) Increase in number of households assumed to correspond linearly to population growth rate(2) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered. Assumed to remain constant throughout the study period.(3) Assumed to be non-divertible under any alternatives considered.(4) Assumes that diversion rate rises gradually from current to proposed over a period of 5 years.(5) For subsequent years, 2015 contract cost is multiplied by ratio of increased households to 2015 households.

Mixed Waste - Large Loads

(tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Waste Tipping

FeesProfessional

Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

Curbside Cart Replacement

Mixed Waste Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)Year

Number of Households (1)

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill Closure

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

ExpansionNon-Inflated Net

Cash FlowInflated Net Cash

FlowCost

Recovery

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Professional Services

Landifll operating cost per year (contractor)

Rural Collections (contract)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 5

Misc. Tipping Fees ($25k allowance)

Fees from Curbside Total

Diversion Systems

ImplementationLandfill ClosureYear

Number of Households (1)

Landifll operating cost per year

(admin)Landfill

ExpansionCurbside Cart Replacement

Inflated Net Cash Flow

Cost Recovery

Mixed Waste - Large Load Tipping Fee

Waste + divertible (tonnes)

Asbestos (loads) (2)

Bulky items (units) (3)

Mixed Waste - Large Loads

(tonnes)

Landfilled Revenues Capital Costs Operating Costs

Total CostsInflated Waste Tipping Fee

Asbestos (loads)

Bulky items (units)

Cumulative Mixed Waste

(tonnes)Waste Tipping

Fees

Total amount of waste

Diversion Rate (4)

Diverted (tonnes)

Curbside Collections (contract)(5)

Diversion (contract)

COST RECOVERY - ALTERNATIVE 4

Non-Inflated Net Cash Flow


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