Filling evidence gaps for Climate-smart agriculture in South Africa
Prof. William Kunin
University of Leeds
Climate change & Agriculture
• Agriculture is a major global driver of climate change
• Agricultural production is strongly affectedby climate change
Climate change
Agri-culture
Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions
• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils
• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased
volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &
diseases
Climate smart agriculture
• Methods to decrease impacts of agriculture on climate (“Mitigation”)
• Methods to adapt agriculture to predicted changes (“Adaptation”)
Climate change
Agri-culture
Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions
• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils
• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased
volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &
diseases
o Changing crop and livestock choices to fit future climateso Crop & livestock breeding to improve climate resilienceo Management changes to adapt to future stresses & riskso Infrastructure investment for future climates
o Reducing use of high GHG-producing componentso Changing management to increase Carbon storage in
agricultural soils
Climate smart agriculture
• Methods to decrease impacts of agriculture on climate (“Mitigation”)
• Methods to adapt agriculture to predicted changes (“Adaptation”)
Climate change
Agri-culture
Ca. 25% of global GHG emissions
• Methane from livestock • “ “ rice farming• Nitrous oxide from fertilizer• Net Carbon loss from soils
• Temperature effects• Rainfall effects• Impacts of increased
volatility• CO2 fertilisation effects• Impacts on pests &
diseases
o Changing crop and livestock choices to fit future climateso Crop & livestock breeding to improve climate resilienceo Management changes to adapt to future stresses & riskso Infrastructure investment for future climates
o Reducing use of high GHG-producing componentso Changing management to increase Carbon storage in
agricultural soils
“Conservation Agriculture”:• Reduced (or no) tillage• More diverse crop systems in space & time• Continuous soil cover: crops & residuesIncreased organic Carbon in soils, improved water retention & reduced erosionIncreased production & resilience
Outline of talk:
•Climate change projections for South Africa
•Likely impact on important crop & livestock sectors
•Knowledge gaps (& AFRICAP Theme A)
• Introducing breakout groups…
Model uncertainty & climate predictions
• Models AGREE on temperature trend and regional patterns
• Models DISAGREE about future rainfall change patterns
Model: HadGEM2-ES Model: IPSL-CM5A-LR Model: MIROC-ESM-CHEM
Temperature 2050s
Current
Model: HadGEM2-ES Model: IPSL-CM5A-LR Model: MIROC-ESM-CHEM
Precipitation 2050s
Current
WIN
TER
SUM
MER
Current Max Temp Current Projected
Source: Estes et al. (2013) Global Change Biology 19:3762-3774
Climate & climate change in South Africa
Projected
Hotter everywhere, but less increase near coast
Drier summers in West, Wetter summers in East & coast
Drier winters inland, Wetter winters near coast
Observed recent climate change: 1960-2010
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Temperatures rising virtually everywhere, in all seasons.Temp rise >1.5x global mean Source: MacKellar et al. (2014) Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South
Africa 1960-2010. South African J Science 110: 1-13
Temperature (max) Rainfall
Rainfall trends differ between regions & seasons
Climate variability & weather extremes
• Evidence that both droughts and extreme rainfall events are increasing in frequency & severity
• Multiple CC models suggest this trend for higher variability will continue in most areas of SA
Sources: Easterling et al. (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a review. Bull. of the Amer. Meteorol. Soc. 81: 417-425 ; Lumsden et al. (2009) Evaluation of potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics of rainfall in southern Africa under conditions of climate change. Water SA 35: 649-656
Agricultural impact: MaizeSuitable area Yield per unit area
Mec
han
isti
c m
od
els
Stat
isti
cal m
od
els
Mechanistic models: physiologically detailed.Capture Temp, Water and CO2 fertilisation effects
Statistical models: Incorporate wider range of drivers, incl. e.g. indirect effects on pests & diseases
Source: Estes et al. (2013) Projected climate impacts to South African Maize and wheat production in 2055. Global Change Biology 19:3762-3774
Agricultural impact: Soybean• South Africa has potential for
substantial growth in soya production under current & future climates
• Import substitution as input into livestock and poultry industry feed
• Potentially valuable for human nutrition
Potential increases in Free State; decreasedsuitability in East
Agricultural impact: Potato• Increased heat stress in summer
• Improved winter performance
• Shifting planting seasons
• Shifting regional importance
• Changed pest & disease challenges
Sources: Franke et al. (2013); van der Waals et al (2013)Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems : 2, 3. Potato Res. 56: 51-66; 56: 67-84
Late blight Root-knot nematodes
Agricultural impact: Livestock & poultry
Source: Rojas-Downing et al. (2017) Climate change and livestock: impacts, adaptation & mitigation. Climate Risk Management 16: 145-163
• Multiple direct & indirect challenges:
Agricultural impact: Dairy
• Heat stress effects on dairy cattle production
• Substantial decreases forecast in most areas (esp. East)
• Providing cooling (shade?) may help
• Breeding more heat-resistant varieties
Current suitability
Projected suitability 2046-65
Source: Williams et al. (2016) Geographical influence of heat stress on milk production of Holstein dairy cattle on pasture in South Africa under current and future climatic conditions. South African Journal of Animal Science 46: 441-447
A1:Context
Characterisation,PolicyAnalysisandEvidenceBaselines:
understandingwhatdoesanddoesn’t
work
C1:StakeholderMapping:
whoandwhatinstitutionsarekey?
C2:Participatoryco-
designofSAZs
A2:Cross-DisciplinaryResearchCapacityBuilding:identifyingandfillingknowledgegaps
A3:ParticipatoryScenario
Building:currenttrendsandregionalfuturesinaworldofchange
B1:Calibrationand
DevelopmentofModelsforApplicationinAfricanAgri-FoodSystems
B2:InnovativeUseofModelsandDataforClimateSmartAgri-FoodSystems:SDGandPariscompliantfutures
B3:DerivingDesirable
PathwaysofChange
C2:PolicyDesign
C2:Piloting
inSAZs
C4:ScalingupacrossSSA:
disseminationtoAU/COMESA
A:BuildingtheEvidenceBaseforClimate-SmartAgri-FoodSystemsLeads:Whitfield(Leeds);Ndema (FANRPAN)
B:DevelopingClimateSmartAgri-FoodSystemPathways:whatisneededtoachievetheSDGs?
Leads:Challinor(Leeds),Smith(Aberdeen),Lewis(UKMO),Madzivhandila (FANRPAN)
C:MakingitHappen:buildingcapacityforpathwayimplementation.Leads:
Bailey(CH),Quinn(Leeds),Sibanda(FANRPAN)
C3:Policy
Evaluation
D:ResearchManagementCapacityBuilding&
Cross-CuttingTrainingLead:Heery(Leeds)
Fig1:GCRF-AFRICAPTheoryofchange
Theme B: Modellingfuture Agri-Food systems
Theme A: Evidence base for climate smart Agri-Food systems
Theme C: Making it happen -- Scenarios and policy trials
Theme D: Project management and capacity building
Theme A: Building the Evidence Base for Climate-smart Agri-food Systems
• Literature & database studies on key issues for agricultural development under climate change
• Field research to fill key data gaps• Nine lab and field-based research projects spread across
four countries in Southern & Eastern Africa
• Two of these involve South Africa: A. Crop Breeding & Seed Systems for Climate Change Adaptation
Zambia & South Africa
B. SCAMPI: Smallholder & Commercial Agricultural Management Processes & Interactions -- South Africa exclusively
A. Crop Breeding and Seed Systems for Climate Change Adaptation in Zambia and South Africa
Aims:
(1) to evaluate technological crop breeding capabilities and seed system processes for improving resilience to projected climate change-related stresses in maize, rice and soybean (and potentially other crops if there is demand); and
(2) to work with crop breeders and seed systems representative to improve access to relevant and appropriate climate information
Key Stakeholders: • Organisations involved in crop improvement research, the
marketing and delivery of improved varieties, and agricultural extension
Focus on comparisons and interactions between large commercial producers and smallholders/subsistence farmers:
B. SCAMPI: Smallholder & Commercial Agricultural Management Processes & Interactions
Non-farm households, home gardens and subsistence farms: ca. 830,000
Smallholdings: ca. 440,000 Large farms:
ca. 35,000
Two-tier agricultural sector: • Most farms are small, but• Most farmland & production
is on large farms.
• National agricultural statistics & modelling focus on commercial sector… Data gap on smallholder production
Policy imperative: Increase rural employment• “Agriculture has the potential to create close to 1 million new jobs by
2030…” (DAFF Agricultural Development Action Plan, 2014) To achieve this, South Africa needs to:
• Expand irrigated agriculture. Evidence shows that the 1.5 million ha. under irrigation… can be expanded by at least 500,000 ha. Through the better use of existing water resources and developing new water schemes. […]
• Pick and support commercial agricultural sectors and regions that have the highest potential for growth and employment.”
Yet trend since 1950s:
• Fewer, larger commercial farms
• Decreased labour usage
Growing numbers of small-holders: can they help reverse trend in agricultural employment? Improve access to food, nutrition?
Will on-going land-reform further increase smallholder farming? Can it do so while maintaining or increasing production & export income? (source: Aliber 2014, cited in APAP)
A two-tiered agricultural sector• Focus on: areas where large commercial farming
and small-holder agriculture are conducted side-by-side (similar base soils, crops)
• How do management methods, soil properties, pests and production differ between the two types of farms? Do they differ in take-up, nature & impact of climate adaptations & mitigations?
• How do the two component sectors interact?
• Movement of agrichemicals;
• Movement of pests, biocontrol agents, pollinators;
• Interaction via employment and income;
• Sharing markets and infrastructure…
Fertiliser, pesticide drift?
NB: Postdoctoral job being advertised:“African Agricultural Ecology”
• Please pass the word to any good potential candidates with interests in agricultural ecology, crop pests, soils & climate-smart agriculture!
• Website: https://jobs.leeds.ac.uk/• Job Ref: FBSBY1088• Position to be posted: ca. 21 July• Application deadline: 16 August
Break-out groups: I. Summer Grains (Maize, soya, etc)
II. Livestock & Poultry (esp. Cattle, chickens)
III. Horticulture (Potato, vegetables, fruit)Key Questions:
A. How is climate change affecting / likely to affect this aspect of the food system (for large commercial AND smallholder farms) – both directly and indirectly (via effects on pest and diseases)
B. What mitigation and/or adaptation strategies may help (large farms and smallholders) cope with those challenges?
C. What actions/research/activities are already in progress to explore these strategies (by government, NGOs, charities, businesses…) and how can AFRICAP help/work with them?
D. Can you think of locations in the Free State or nearby provinces where large commercial farms and smallholders raise this type of food side-by-side?
Appoint a spokesperson and report back in 40 minutes…
Any Questions?
Agricultural ecology research
• Soils: organic matter, nutrients
• Mycorrhizal colonisation of crop plants
• Pest and pathogen attack rates on crop plants
• Biocontrol of pests
• Pollinators
https://plant-health.co.za/eco-bb-emergency-registration-fall-armyworm/
Yield & nutrition research
• Crop yield
• Biomass/fodder yield
• Nutritional value of crop
• Nutritional value of fodder
• Mycotoxin loads (fresh & in storage)
https://qz.com/999793/south-africas-best-crop-in-history-still-isnt-enough-to-lift-its-farmers-spirits/
Socio-economic research
• HAVA survey
• Land access
• Crop and livestock production
• Crop and livestock management
• Diet and nutrition
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/financial-inclusion-south-africa/