Final - cdn.ymaws.com...Outlook of Japan’s Titanium Industry 2014 3. ... Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May...

Overview of Japan’s Titanium Industry

International Titanium Association 2014September 22, 2014

Shinya HIGUCHIChairman, the Japan Titanium Society

1

Final

1. Current Economic Situation in Japan

2. Outlook of Japan’s Titanium Industry 2014

3. History of Japan’s Titanium Industry since 1995

4. Conclusion

2

Agenda

impact by consumption tax rate rise (1)

3

Current Economic Situation in Japan

‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Jul‐Sep2012

Oct‐Dec Jan‐Mar2013

Apr‐Jun Jul‐Sep Oct‐Dec Jan‐Mar2014

Apr‐Jun

Real GDP growth rate(compared with previous quarter. Annualized) 5%

The rate of consumption tax was raised from 5% to 8%

from April 1, 2014.

8%Consumption Tax

impact by consumption tax rate rise (2)

4


▼2.7

▼0.5

+5.1 +3.4

+1.8

▼0.5

+6.0

▼7.1

▼18.0

▼16.0

▼14.0

▼12.0

▼10.0

▼8.0

▼6.0

▼4.0

▼2.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

3Q

2012

4Q 1Q

2013

2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

2014CY

2Q

(%)

CY

Real GDP Growth rate(compared with previous quarter, annualized)

Net Export

Public

Inventory

Government

investment

Government

Expenditure

Private

Inventory

Private

Investment

Private

Housing

InvestmentPrivate

Consumption

GDP

Forecast of next quarters (1)

5


75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

JPY / USD Exchange rate (Tokyo foreign exchange market)

6


Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” Survey(Short term outlook of business conditions)

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

Mar2011

Jun Sep Dec Mar2012

Jun Sep Dec Mar2013

Jun Sep Dec Mar2014

Jun

LE (Manufacturing)

LE (Non‐Manufacturing)

SME (Manufacturing)

SME (Non‐Manufacturing)

1. Current Condition

Japanese companies’ sentiments about current business condition were still positive at the timing of June research.



7


Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” Survey(Short term outlook of business conditions)

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

Mar2011

Jun Sep Dec Mar2012

Jun Sep Dec Mar2013

Jun Sep Dec Mar2014

Jun Sep

LE（Manufacturing) LE (Non‐Manufacturing)SME (Manufacturing)SME (Non‐Manufacturing)

2. Forecast of Future (after 3 months) Condition

SME’s sentiments about future (after 3 months) business condition changed into positive side at the timing of June research.

（Forecasted in June)


8


600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

Jan2012

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2013

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Machinery Orders in Private Sector(excl. orders for ships and those from electric power companies)

Leading indicator for private investment

Jul


9


‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Jul‐Sep2012

Oct‐Dec Jan‐Mar2013



Apr‐Jun

Real GDP growth rate(compared with previous quarter. Annualized)

Average of forecasts by Japanese 7 analysis companies as of Sep. 8 ;

2014. Jul‐Sep : 3.8%Oct‐Dec : 2.4%

2015.Jan‐Mar : 1.8%Apr‐Jun : 1.4% (source : Nikkei)

‐ “Basic Energy Plan” (Apr. 2014）‐ ‐ ‐ “important base‐load power source”

‐ Examination by Nuclear Regulation Authority concerning resumption of Nuclear Power Plant operation (case by case).

‐ Public Opinions

Situation concerning Nuclear Power Plant in Japan

10





4. Conclusion

11

Agenda

Production of Titanium Sponge

12

Outlook of Japan’s Titanium Industry 2014

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000 Annual production (in MT)

63,400

42,178

8,397

Export of Titanium Sponge

13


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Export volume (in MT) Percentage of export

3,685

Shipment of Titanium Mill Products

14


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000Annual Shipment (in MT)

19,358

16,183

6,465

12,361

Export of Titanium Mill Products

15


10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

（MT） Mill Products Export Export ratio

4,227

Shipment of Titanium Mill ProductsDifference compared with the same half in the previous year

16


‐6,000

‐5,000

‐4,000

‐3,000

‐2,000

‐1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2009.1H 2H 2010.1H 2H 2011.1H 2H 2012.1H 2H 2013.1H 2H 2014.1H

Shipment in totalShipment to JapanShipment for export

CY

(MT)




4. Conclusion

17

Agenda

18

History of Japan’s Titanium Industry since 1995

9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.112.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.3 17.7 18.119.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

<PeriodⅠ> <PeriodⅡ> <Period Ⅲ> <Period Ⅳ>

Shipment of Titanium Mill Products since 1995

(MT/FY)

19


9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.112.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.3 17.7 18.119.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

<PeriodⅠ> <Period Ⅱ> <Period Ⅲ> <Period Ⅳ>

Asian Financial Crisis

< Period Ⅰ 1995-2004 >- Expansion and exploration of the application of titanium for industrial usage.

Application of titanium have been expanded in the various industrial sectors.- September 11, 2001

=> After a slump of demand for Aerospace sector, demand had been increased gradually.

September 11

図＋写真

20


Plate Heat Exchanger [Photo: courtesy of Hisaka Works, Ltd.]

21


9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.1

12.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.317.7 18.1

19.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

<PeriodⅠ> <Period Ⅱ> Period Ⅲ> <Period Ⅳ>

< Period Ⅱ 2005-2008> - Titanium demand had expanded for Aerospace sector and for infrastructure.- Demand for titanium mill products exceeded the capacity of sponge production.- Supply- demand balance of titanium metal had rapidly tightened.

Price of titanium products rose sharply.- Price of raw material (Synthesized rutile) were stable.

図＋写真

Construction of Marine pier for D runway of

Tokyo Haneda International Airport[Photo: courtesy of Haneda Airport Expansion Project JV]

22


23


Kyushu National Museum

(Fukuoka, Japan)

24


National Center for Performing Arts (Beijing, China)

25


Titanium Exhaust System

26

History of Titanium Industry since 1995

9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.1

12.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.317.7 18.1

19.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13


< Period Ⅲ 2009-2011>- Global economic crisis and decrease of titanium demand.- Because of a sudden price rise at period Ⅱ, following situations which could cause

supply-demand balance easing appeared.1 ) Some customers changed their material from titanium to another one.2 ) Investments for extra capacity of titanium sponge

- Big supply-demand gap has continued since then including negative impacts by Lehmanand the great east Japan earthquake .

Lehman Brothers

Bankruptcy

The Great East Japan Earthquake

図＋写真

27


Sea Water Desalination Plant [Photo: courtesy of DHIC]

28


9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.1

12.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.317.7 18.1

19.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

<PeriodⅠ> <PerioodⅡ> <Period Ⅲ> <Period Ⅳ>

< Period Ⅳ 2012-2014>- Supply-demand balance situation in period III has continued. Titanium demand for industrial sectors has been low because of Nuclear Power Plant situation and economic situation in China.- Inventory adjustment in Aerospace sector.- Price of mill products declined sharply because of strong price competition. - Price of titanium raw material rose because supply-demand balance of TiO2 for pigment had tightened.

Abenomics

Fluctuation of Mill Products Shipment for the last 6 years

29


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013FY

Automobile & others

Aerospace

PHE

Electrolysis & Chemical

Power plant & Desalination

30


9.0

10.9

13.612.3

11.1

12.8

15.1 14.613.8

18.317.7 18.1

19.5 19.1

9.7

15.6

21.7

11.6

13.1

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13


< Period Ⅴ 2015 - >- Titanium demand for Aerospace sector is expected to increase.- The level of titanium demand increase for Industrial sector is unclear at the moment.=> In order to increase whole volume of titanium demand, activities to expand

and explore titanium application by titanium industry and individual companies are very important.

<Period Ⅴ>

Administration Committee

ITF Committee

General Meeting

West Japan Branch

Water Service WG

Fastener WG

Welfare & Medical WG

Sanitary WG

Associate Members Committee

Application Development Committee

Environment Committee

Secretary

Academia-Industry Cooperation Committee

ISO/TC79/SC11 Committee

Technical Committee

Editorial Committee

Awards Committee

Board Meeting

Executive Meeting

JTS Organization chart20 Corporate Members

172 Corporate Associates32 Individual Members

31


Desalination & Environment

Construction & Ocean Eng.

Medical Appliances

Technological Development by collaboration among Industry, Universities and Ministries

32


JTS / Academia-Industry Cooperation Committee is positioned as a coordinator for this collaboration.

- Provision of opportunities for debating the direction of technological development among Industry, Universities and Ministry (METI)

- Discussion of development issues for new technologies from a medium to long-term perspective.

- Provision of opportunities for discussion of needs and solutions between Industry andUniversities.

- Coordination of intimate contact for young engineers and researchers between Industry and Universities with the purpose of development of human resources.

Industry Universities

MinistriesMinistry of Economy, Trade & IndustryMinistry of Education, Science & Culture




4. Conclusion

33

Agenda

Conclusion

34

1. Titanium demand remains low in Japan now. The level of titanium demand increase for Industrial sector is unclear at the moment.Steady growth forecast of Japanese economyis a positive factor.

2. Contribution to the world titanium industriesWe will continue to make a great effort to contribute to the

world titanium industries through stable supply of high-quality titanium sponge and mill-products to global customers, expansion and exploration of the application of titanium, and technological development, etc.

Thank you very much for your kind attention!

Thank you very much for your kind attention!

35

Date post:	25-Aug-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Final - cdn.ymaws.com...Outlook of Japan’s Titanium Industry 2014 3. ... Jan 2012 Feb Mar Apr May...

Documents