The inevitable limitations of managing migration

Kevin Richardson

‘….it is possible that the population declines in absolute numbers and that it grows older at the same time. ….this would have repercussions for the labour market, the housing market, the social and physical infrastructure of the region, and the current knowledge based growth strategy. A population which is shrinking …..needs to be anticipated in time….’

“…..a sophisticated view of future demographic trends …..is required.

This understanding does not appear to exist at the moment, and is needed.”

Estimated Population of Newcastle

250000

255000

260000

265000

270000

275000

280000

285000

29000019

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

266,000

284,300

Estimated Population of Newcastle

250,000

255,000

260,000

265,000

270,000

275,000

280,000

285,000

290,00019

81

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Estimated Population of Newcastle

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Excess of Births over Deaths in Newcastle

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,40019

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

……like most Core Cities, a recent welcome (but largely unexplained) return to an excess of births over deaths

births

deaths

Total Fertility Rates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Nu

mb

er o

f C

hil

dre

n

Gateshead

New castle upon Tyne

Newcastle Working Age Projections

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.020

06

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Th

ou

san

ds

……a worst case scenario – ONS projections of our working age population should we do not attract a net surplus of 2,100 economic migrants year on year

ONS projections of working age population assuming a surplus of 2,100 economic migrants per annum

..and without those migrants

New NI Numbers Issued in 2008 to non UK Nationals in Newcastle

N=4190

Sri LankaPakistan

Romania

Malaysia Slovak Rep

France

India

PRC

Poland

Nigeria

Country of Birth of Mother: Babies Born in Newcastle 2008 N=960

(exluding England & Wales N=2333)

Scotland

Poland

China

Nigeria

Pakistan

India

Bangladesh

Citizenship Ceremonies in Newcastleby Country of Origin May '04 - Aug '08

N=2296

Children born in UKBangladesh

Afghanistan

Iraq

Philippines

Pakistan

India

Iran

Newcastle Long Run Trends in Births and Deaths

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,50019

87

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

……rates of birth well below that needed to repopulate without migration

….a fairly standard profile……but who

will replace the baby boomers

when they retire?

A Commentary

• Our people are changing very quickly (size and structure)

• European Union only one source of migrants. Overall picture is much more complex

• Without sustained inward migration our population will fall and get older

• Incoming migration not predicted, promoted, planned or managed.

• Few chose Newcastle as a destination of open choice. Prior image of Newcastle was either neutral or none.

• Persistent patterns of outgoing migration

• But we’re not really sure what is happening – we don’t yet have that ‘sophisticated’ understanding.

A Matrix of Limitations

• Legal

• Physical

• Demographic

• Economic

• European

• Central Government

• Regional Policy

Limitations of EU Regional Policy• UK, Sweden and Eire first to act and gain advantage – but all remaining Member

States now beginning to meet Treaty obligations – and are opening borders to workers from Accessionary States in advance of 2011/13 deadline.

• Massive investments in high speed rail (and air) networks (especially across Northern and Central Europe) offers real potential for dense, complex and non traditional patterns of migration

• Long term challenge to redistributive elements of Common Agricultural Policy suggests fundamental structural reform and dislocation of remaining, relatively highly populated (and poor) agricultural regions, especially in Eastern Europe.

• Ever deepening of cross border trade e.g. implementation of Services Directive requires inevitable increased mobility of labour

• Extension of Schengen area but existing land borders inevitability porous e.g. Romania/Moldova, Poland/Kaliningrad, Poland/Ukraine, Spain/Italy/Northern Africa, Turkey/Cyprus

• Trend pressure to open trading borders further to include Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and (populous and very poor) Turkey

“As we control our borders and bring immigration to a manageable level, we will not impede you from attracting the best talent from around the world” Rt. Hon. David Cameron

Speech to CBI 25th October 2010

Limitations of Central Government Policy

• Managing political perceptions within wider supremacy of EU directives and regulations, and other supranational binding conventions e.g. Convention on Treatment of Asylum Seekers

• Divergent motivations of different government departments (tax, security of borders, cohesion, productivity, skills, territorial development). Differing expectations of devolved administrations.

• Differentiated local impacts and responses (North/South, urban/rural, industrial/service/agricultural, absolute/relative numbers, knowledge/production workers)

• Official ONS population statistical methodology (largely mathematical & mechanical) effectively redundant by circumstance

• Repeated need for legislative revisions e.g. Nine Immigration Bills in eleven years….and more to come?

• Managing impact of London as gateway ‘mega’ global capital

Source: DWP

New NI Registrations 2006-07Core Cities and London

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Birmingham Bristol Leeds Liverpool Manchester New castle Nottingham Sheffield London

……a working age population much greater than that of Newcastle arrived to work in London in just one year

Limitations of UK Regional Policy

• A free market approach relies upon elastic response of mobile labour to places of comparative advantage e.g. higher relative net salaries and lower costs

• Traditional strategies founded on endogenous growth theory and supply side ‘productivity’ horizontal policies both implicitly assume a sufficient (elastic) supply of labour

• Little real evidence of reduced regional disparities across the UK regions – and convergence less likely during periods of economic downturn. Most population growth (based almost exclusively on inward migration) forecast by ONS to be centred on (already congested) London, South and South East.

“Today the battle for talent is as important as the battle for capital.”

OECD November 2006