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CLACC

CAPACITY STRENGTHENING IN THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

(LDCS) FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (CLACC)

ADVERSE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES: INTEGRATING ADAPTATION IN POLICY AND

DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA

JOHANNES CHIGWADA PROGRAMME MANAGER

ZERO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT ORGANISATION, HARARE, ZIMBABWE

DECEMBER 2004

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................................................................... 4

LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................................................ 5

ACRONYMS..................................................................................................................................................... 6

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................... 7

2. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................. 12

3. COUNTRY BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 13 3.1 GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION ............................................................................................................ 13 3.2 CLIMATE ........................................................................................................................................ 13 3.3 VEGETATION .................................................................................................................................. 14 3.4 RESOURCE ENDOWMENT................................................................................................................ 14 3.5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITION ............................................................................................................ 15

3.5.1 Social Condition....................................................................................................................... 15 3.5.2 Economic Condition ................................................................................................................ 16

3.6 ENVIRONMENT CONDITION................................................................................................................. 17 3.7 SOIL DEGRADATION ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.8 DEVELOPMENT GOALS, OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITY SECTORS ....................................................... 18 3.9 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES.................................................................................... 20

3.9.1 Development Trends ................................................................................................................ 20 3.9.2 Food Security ........................................................................................................................... 22 3.9.3 HIV/AIDS................................................................................................................................. 22 3.9.4 Deforestation ............................................................................................................................ 22 3.9.5 Water ........................................................................................................................................ 23 3.9.6 Livelihoods ............................................................................................................................... 23 3.9.7 Declining Use of Indigenous Knowledge and Technologies .................................................. 23

4. ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE..................................................................... 24 4.1 SIGNED AGREEMENTS .................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................................... 24

4.2.1 Temperature ............................................................................................................................. 25 4.2.2 Predicted Rainfall .................................................................................................................... 27 4.2.3 Predicted Temperatures ........................................................................................................... 28 4.2.4 Predicted Evapo-transpiration................................................................................................. 28 4.2.5 Predicted Run-Off and Hydrological Regimes........................................................................ 28 4.2.6 Anticipated Impacts and Adaptation by Sector ....................................................................... 29

4.3 ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL AND PHYSICAL SYSTEM (WATER AND LAND) 31

4.3.1 Land.......................................................................................................................................... 31 4.3.2 Erosion ..................................................................................................................................... 31 4.3.3 Water ........................................................................................................................................ 31

4.4 ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE .................................................... 31 4.5 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT........................................................ 32 4.6 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION (LIVELIHOODS) ........................ 32 4.7 ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIODIVERSITY................................................... 33 4.8 CLIMATE RELATED ADVERSE EFFECTS, SECTORS AND IMPACTS IN ZAMBIA.................................. 34

5. PRESENT POLICIES AND ACTIVITIES ADDRESSING CLIMATE ......................................... 35

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STIMULI INCLUDING EXTREME EVENTS........................................................................................... 35 5.1 THE POLICY CONTENT OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE...................................................... 35 5.2 DEVELOPMENT POLICY .................................................................................................................. 36

5.2.1 Poverty Reduction Strategy...................................................................................................... 36 5.3 MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS ............................................................................................. 37

6. INTEGRATING ADAPTATION POLICY INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICY ............................ 40 6.1 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ..................................................................................................................... 40 6.2 RESOURCE MANAGEMENT.............................................................................................................. 40 6.3 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT............................................................................................................. 41 6.4 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................................. 42 6.5 EDUCATION AND INFORMATION DISSEMINATION........................................................................... 42

7. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................. 43 7.1 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................. 43 7.2 RECOMMENDATION ........................................................................................................................ 43

7.2.1 Planning ................................................................................................................................... 43 7.2.2 Integrating Disaster Management in Sectorial Policies ......................................................... 43 7.2.3 Promoting Multi-Disciplinary Research into Vulnerability Reduction.................................. 43

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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: ZAMBIA - GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION ........................................................................................ 13 FIGURE 2: ZAMBIA AT A GLANCE................................................................................................................. 16 FIGURE 3: REAL GDP GROWTH ..................................................................................................................... 20 FIGURE 4: THE RURAL POVERTY TRAP.......................................................................................................... 21 FIGURE 5: HIV/AIDS AND FOOD SECURITY................................................................................................... 22 FIGURE 6: POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE ..................................................................................................... 24 FIGURE 7: CASUAL PATHWAYS OF PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE............................ 27 FIGURE 8: MAIZE PRODUCTION IN SELECTED SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES VS EL NINO 3 DATA ....... 32 FIGURE 9: STATUS AT A GLANCE .................................................................................................................... 39 FIGURE 10: ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ................................................................................................................... 40 FIGURE 11: KICK-STARTING THE RURAL ECONOMY ..................................................................................... 42

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Development Goals, Objectives & Priority Sectors 14 Table 2 Anticipated Impacts and Adaptation by Sector 23 Table 3 Climate Related Adverse Effects, Sectors and Impacts 28 Table 4 Sector Shares of the PRSP Budget 2002-2004 31

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ACRONYMS

ACTS African Centre for Technology Studies BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies CLACC Capacity strengthening in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for

Adaptation to Climate Change ENDA Environment et Developpement due Tiers Monde IIED International Institute of Environment and Development RING Regional and International Networking Group SADC Southern African Development Community

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Capacity strengthening of civil society in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for Adaptation to Climate Change (CLACC) is a multi-country project being implemented by the Regional and International Networking Group (RING) and managed by the International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED). The four regional centres are ZERO Regional Environment Organisation in Zimbabwe, African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) in Kenya, Environment et Developpement due Tiers Monde (ENDA) in Senegal and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) in Bangladesh. The CLACC project supports LDCs in their efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Its main objectives are to:

• Strengthen the capacity of civil society in LDCs to adapt to climate change and foster adaptive capacity among the most vulnerable groups.

• Establish an information and knowledge system to help countries deal with the

adverse impacts of change.

• Integrate adaptation to climate change into the work of key non-governmental institutions and mainstream the NAPA process with these institutions.

COUNTRY BACKGROUND Zambia is a landlocked country in south central Africa between latitudes 8 degrees and 18 degrees south, and longitudes 22 degrees and 33 degrees east. Covering an area of approximately 752 160 square kilometres, it is bordered in the south by Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, in the east by Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania, in the north by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania and in the west by Angola. Climate From November onwards, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is the main rain-bearing mechanism. Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel, the Congo Air Boundary (CABS) and southeast winds in the region also play a role in the rainfall pattern of the region and Zambia. Rainfall is concentrated over the five-month period from November to March and varies from 700mm in the south to 1 500mm in the north. During the summer rainfall, October to April, the El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO) phenomenon is now recognised as the major factor in determining precipitation patterns in Zambia. ENSO affects ITCZ and CABS, the main rain bearing mechanisms. The opposite phenomenon, La Nina, brings more rainfall, which normally results in floods.

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The ITCZ phenomenon is contrasted by the Botswana Upper High Influence (BUHI) which controls drought episodes and uneven rainfall distribution. BUHI creates an unfavourable condition for rainfall by pushing the rain-bearing ITCZ and active westerly cloud bands out of the region and Zambia. Agriculture & Livestock More than 60% of Zambians depend on agriculture for their livelihoods with maize, sorghum and cassava the predominant staple crops. Cash crops include wheat, cotton, oilseeds, coffee and horticultural produce. Zambia's food security situation remains precarious despite occasional surpluses during good seasons. Drought periods are often accompanied by reduced precipitation; high temperatures and evapotranspiration with adverse consequences for staple food production. Deforestation Woodfuel is the main cooking energy for over 90% of households in Zambia including the urban areas. In 1991 the charcoal industry accounted for 2,3% of GDP while the rest of the forest sector contributed 3%. The costs to the environment are enormous. Deforestation in catchment areas increases run-off by 10-20%. But, in the long run, deforestation often results in reduced precipitation. Water Zambia has a highly vascularised river system along with water bodies that cover as much at 6% of the total land area. This area is dominated by the Zambezi River drainage system. However, growing demands for water for hydroelectric power, agriculture urban and industrial consumption have led to conflicts over water rights in the Kafue Basin. FACTORS INFLUENCING CLIMATE CHANGE The Zambian government is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention to Combat Desertification; the Convention on Biological Diversity, Rio Declaration (Agenda 21), Kyoto Protocol and SADC Protocol on Shared Waters. This has helped Zambia formulate policies designed to protect the country from the ravages of climate change caused by rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, high evapotranspiration excessive run-off. Temperature The scientific basis of climate change (IPCC-WGI 2001) concludes that globally averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/- 0.2oC during the last 100 years. Zambia is one of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which are already depicting a rise in temperatures in their data. Rainfall In terms of rainfall, the IPCC-WGII (1998-2001) has concluded that Southern Africa would get drier if climate change occurs and that the region will find it difficult to cope with

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climate hazards given the present level of preparedness. According to simulated studies, Southern Africa's precipitation will decrease by 5-20% in all major river basins of the region except the Congo where precipitation is expected to increase by 10%. Evapotranspiration Evapotranspiration under climate change is predicted to increase in the regional basins by between 4% and 25%. This increase will most likely aggravate evaporation rates from the numerous wetlands, posing a threat to biodiversity and striking a heavy blow for tourism. Run-Off and Hydrological Regimes A study by Arnell (1999) says the greatest reduction in run-off by 2050 in Africa will be in the Southern African region, suggesting that water use to resource ratio changes will put countries in the high water/stress category. Add to this the shortfall in rainfall and the effect of increases in potential evaporation, the resultant reduction in run-off in the major river basins, including Zambia, could be as high as 40%. ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE The effects of climate change are likely to felt most in the following areas: Water Resources El Nino affects the precipitation in Zambia resulting in drought while La Nina is associated with floods. In the Kafue Basin there are already conflicts on water rights due to water demand for various uses including agriculture, hydro-power generation, industry and domestic demand, which will intensify with climate change. Low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration will promote desertification due to a reduction in vegetation cover. This will lead to soil erosion and sediment discharge that could cause siltation of reservoirs. Drought events are known to have caused mortality in wildlife in the past besides a decline in tourism and reduction in water flows at the Victoria Falls. Agriculture Excessive rain in 2001 and dry spells during the 2001/02 growing season led to a major shortfall in maize production, a decrease of 42% compared with the average yearly production. Hume et al (2001) predicts reduced precipitation in Southern Africa in the next 100 years. Because Zambia's economy is agriculture based, drought is likely to have an adverse effect on food security, resulting in lower economic growth. On the other hand, removal of vegetation cover through fires or overgrazing increases the risk of soil erosion during heavy downpours. This, too, leads to decreased agricultural productivity. Economic Development The long lasting impacts of droughts on national economies for the SADC region, are explored in Benson and Clay, 1998. Economic impacts from curtailment of hydro-power

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generation from Lake Kariba on the Zambezi River as a result of the 1991-92 drought were estimated at US$102 million in GDP, US$36 million in lost export earnings and 3 000 job losses. Livelihoods Drought threatens the energy security of a country due to its capacity to disable hydro-power systems. This, in turn, has ripple effect on the social and economic development fabric of society, including employment. Socio-economic impacts arising from floods and cyclones are likely to include shortages of potable water, food insecurity, poor health, extreme events and damage to infrastructure, mostly houses and other infrastructure. Health Human health will be affected by the rise in temperature, which will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria. Access to potable water and sanitation is very low during droughts while floods increase the frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases. Biodiversity Changes in climate will alter the distribution range of the antelope species. Montane Centre of Biodiversity is threatened by increases in temperature because many represent isolated populations with no possibility of vertical or horizontal migration. THE POLICY CONTENT OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC Convention is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Briefly, the Convention prevails upon countries to, among other things, formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change; cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods. In addition, signatories are expected to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for example impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimising adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, or projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change. In this respect, Zambia has established early warning systems, through which data is timely communicated to decision-makers and implementers so that disaster impacts are minimised. The approach has worked well in the past. For example, during 1994/95 agricultural season, although the rains were just as deficient as they were in 1991/92, the early warning

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from Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) minimised the food importation bill and allowed for the orderly and timely distribution of grain. INTEGRATING ADAPTATION POLICY INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICY The Zambian government should identify their priority sectors and technologies necessary for integrating adaptation policies into its development policy. It could start by improving climate prediction models, drought-resistant phenotypes and infrastructure. But to do this successfully requires "hard" technologies, e.g. computer hardware, as well as "soft" technologies, such as information, networks, training and research for adaptation to local conditions. In terms of education and information dissemination, adult literacy classes targeting women should be promoted. The civil protection or the early warning unit should package information in an easily digestible manner. Information portals should be used to bridge the digital divide. Suitable communication strategies should be developed for all classes of society. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS This report concludes that the Zambian government is on the right path of development as it has mobilised all stakeholders to participate in the economic development of the country. All that remains is to make sure that agriculture is weather proof, i.e. cushioned against drought. In this connection, water storage and irrigation infrastructure should be promoted to yield the appropriate results. It doing so, it recommends that early warning and emergency planning should be beefed up while the vulnerability of communities can be mitigated through the strengthening and diversification of community livelihoods. It also calls for the extensive and diverse sustainable utilisation of the natural resource base and efficient utilisation of river basins for crop production. The report takes note that although Zambia has a formulated a Disaster Management Policy, it is weakly enforced. For the best results, the following measures should be implemented:

• Increase sectoral engagement between government departments on disaster risk management.

• Integrate disaster risk reduction principles into government programmes. It is also critical to promote multi-disciplinary research into building standards, diversification into drought-resistant crops and water conservation and water catchment management techniques.

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2. INTRODUCTION

Capacity strengthening of civil society in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for Adaptation to Climate Change (CLACC) is a multi-country project being implemented by the Regional and International Networking Group (RING) and managed by the International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED). A number of international development partners are assisting with financial support.

The four regional centres are ZERO Regional Environment Organisation in Zimbabwe, African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) in Kenya, Environment et Developpement due Tiers Monde (ENDA) in Senegal and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) in Bangladesh.

The CLACC project supports LDCs in their efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes long-term capacity strengthening within the civil society, bearing in mind that the LDCs are most vulnerable to extreme weather events and are not in a position to cope with the impact of climate change.

The main objectives of the CLACC project are to: ♦ Strengthen the capacity of civil society in LDCs to adapt to climate change and

foster adaptive capacity among the most vulnerable groups. ♦ Establish an information and knowledge system to help countries deal with the

adverse impacts of change. ♦ Integrate adaptation to climate change into the work of key non-governmental

institutions and mainstream the NAPA process with these institutions.

Four fellows from the regional RING partners, hosted for eight weeks by the four Northern partners of RING, reviewed the adverse impacts of climate change and existing development challenges of 12 countries, including Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. The review included: ♦ The present level of activities and policy domain addressing climate change

including variability of climate and extreme weather events. ♦ Identification of gaps and the necessary measures in integrating adaptation

policy in all development activities for addressing climate-related stimuli and stress to reduce vulnerability.

It should be noted that the report has been prepared on the basis of available country level studies, policy documents and development plans.

The documents worth mentioning are: a) Report on the Implementation of Convention on Desertification b) Report on the Implementation of Convention on Biological Diversity c) Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers. d) Millennium Development Goals of Zambia.

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3. COUNTRY BACKGROUND

3.1 Geographical Location Zambia is a landlocked country in south central Africa between latitudes 8 degrees and 18 degrees south, and longitudes 22 degrees and 33 degrees east. The country is bordered in the south by Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, in the east by Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania, in the north by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania and in the west by Angola. It covers an area of approximately 752 160 square kilometres.

FIGURE 1: ZAMBIA - GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION

3.2 Climate There are three main seasons: ♦ The cool dry (April - August) with temperatures ranging from 16 to 27 degrees

Centigrade. ♦ The hot dry (August - November) with temperatures varying from 27 to 38

degrees Centigrade.

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♦ The hot and wet (November - April).

From November onwards, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is the main rain-bearing mechanism. Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel, the Congo Air Boundary (CABS) and southeast winds in the region also play a role in the rainfall pattern of the region and Zambia (Chenje 2000).

Rainfall is concentrated over the five-month period from November to March and varies from 700mm in the south to 1 500mm in the north. Rainfall Distribution The ITCZ phenomenon is contrasted by the Botswana Upper High Influence (BUHI) which controls drought episodes and uneven rainfall distribution. BUHI creates an unfavourable condition for rainfall by pushing the rain-bearing ITCZ and active westerly cloud bands out of the region and Zambia. During the summer rainfall, October to April, the El Nino/Southern Oscillations (ENSO) phenomenon is now recognised as the major factor in determining precipitation patterns in Zambia. ENSO affects ITCZ and CABS, the main rain bearing mechanisms. The opposite phenomenon, La Nina, brings more rainfall, which normally results in floods.

3.3 Vegetation Zambia's vegetation is mainly savanna dominated by small areas of miombo woodlands, which cover approximately 50% of the country with tropical grassland and swamp. Mopane and Muunga woodlands cover much of the hot and dry southern valleys of Zambezi and Luangwa. There are teak forests in the Western Province. Swamp vegetation is found on the western plain of the Zambezi in the Lukanga area, the depression of the Kafue Flats in the Southern Province, Bangweulu area and Mweru Wantipa depressions.

3.4 Resource Endowment The former British colony is endowed with a rich natural resource base and abundant wildlife. Rapid demographic changes are due to the high population growth rate of 3,5%. Urbanisation, industrialisation, increasing agricultural demands and general economic decline pose a serious threat to sustainable exploitation and use of natural resources, which in turn threatens economic, social and environmental sustainability in the long run. Copper, cobalt, zinc, lead, emeralds, amethysts and limestone are at the heart of Zambia's mineral wealth.

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3.5 Socio-Economic Condition

3.5.1 Social Condition At independence in 1964, 20% of the population lived in urban areas, increasing steadily to 29% in 1969 and 42% in 1990, making Zambia the most urbanised African country south of the Sahara. The high population concentration in the cities has exerted increased pressure on meagre urban resources, resulting in most municipalities failing to provide adequate services such as potable water, sanitation and waste disposal. Urbanisation has resulted in the sprouting of unplanned settlement areas. Lack of potable water and inadequate sanitation had led to occasional outbreaks of diseases such as cholera. With the collapse of copper prices in the early 1980s, economic reforms were introduced. The real GDP growth has fluctuated between -8% and +6% in the 12 years from 1990 to 2002. Extreme poverty is much higher in the rural areas with 71% compared to urban areas at 36%. Infant mortality is declining, but the maternal mortality has risen because 16% of the adult population aged between 15-49 years is living with HIV while tuberculosis and malaria cases are on the increase.

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FIGURE 2: ZAMBIA AT A GLANCE

3.5.2 Economic Condition In the mid-1970s copper prices hit rock bottom. Inspite of that, copper still plays a major role in the provision of government revenue as a foreign currency earner. Zambia's industrial sector is small but diversified with food, beverages, textiles, saw milling, cement products and pharmaceuticals being the main employers. Agriculture provides livelihood for more than 50% of Zambia's population with maize, sorghum and cassava the predominant staple crops. Cash crops include wheat, cotton, oilseeds, coffee and horticultural produce.

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3.6 Environment Condition Zambia has a highly vascularised river system along with water bodies that cover as much at 6% of the total land area. This area is dominated by the Zambezi River Drainage System. Threats to biodiversity in Zambia come from poverty and dependence on natural resources exploitation, which are accelerating the rate of deforestation. Poor conservation measures compounded by poaching, over-fishing, overgrazing by livestock, uncontrolled bush fires and soil erosion also pose a serious threat to biodiversity conservation in the country. Crop production has created its own share of environmental problems in the form of soil degradation through acidification, nutrient loss, deterioration of structure, soil erosion, salinisation, pesticide, fertiliser pollution and deforestation.

3.7 Soil Degradation Zambia is divided into three agro-ecological zones based on annual rainfall. Region I 600-800mm Zambezi and Luangwa Valleys Region II 801-1 000mm Central area of the country Region III 1 001-1 500mm Northern and north-western parts of the

country

Region I has a high erosion hazard while both Regions I and II have limited soil depth. With high rainfall and floods, erosion hazard is increased, resulting in the loss of top fertile soil. The end result is low agricultural productivity and increased poverty.

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3.8 Development Goals, Objectives and Priority Sectors Sector Goal Objectives Agriculture Poverty Reduction ♦ Promote a self-sustaining export-led agricultural sector

♦ Ensure increased national and household food security ♦ Generate income and employment through increased agricultural production ♦ Contribute to production and productivity through infrastructure development ♦ Ensure national agricultural resource base is maintained and improved upon.

Industry Poverty Reduction ♦ Promote growth of an export-led industry for poverty reduction through employment creation

♦ Improve industrial skills and craftsmanship ♦ Improve application of science, technology and research and development to

manufacturing activities ♦ Develop and improve operations of the Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises (MSME)

especially rural-based industries. Tourism Poverty Reduction ♦ Enhance tourism's sector contribution to economic growth and poverty reduction

♦ Encourage community participation in wildlife conservation. ♦ Promote investment in the tourism industry through joint ventures between locals and

foreign investors. ♦ Sensitise local authorities on importance of making land available for tourism

development. Mining Poverty Reduction ♦ Promote investment in the mining industry

♦ Ensure the development of a self-sustaining mineral-based industry ♦ Revitalise and ensure the realisation of the potential of the small-scale mining sub

sector Education Poverty Reduction ♦ Provide relevant, equitable, efficient and quality education for all

♦ Increase access to upper basic education and improve its quality and relevance ♦ Increase access, quality and relevance of skills and reduce disparities in education,

including those based on gender

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Health, Water and Sanitation

Poverty Reduction ♦ Improve health status of all people in Zambia ♦ Improve access to health facilities and encourage lifestyles which support health, and

water resources management ♦ Improve the quality of health services ♦ Effectively develop and manage water resources to ensure access to safe water and

sanitation

Table 1: Development Goals, Objectives and Priority Sectors

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3.9 Development Trends and Challenges

3.9.1 Development Trends Compared to other countries worldwide, Zambia's development lags behind as indicated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 2003 Human Development Report. The human development index ranks Zambia at 163 out of the 175 countries surveyed. Lower copper prices coupled with low production have resulted in a decline in foreign exchange earnings, making Zambia one of the most indebted countries in the world. Economic growth rate was less than 4% from 1990 to 2002. Yet to eradicate poverty it should be 4% or more.

FIGURE 3: REAL GDP GROWTH

The high poverty levels in Zambia are due to many factors, including unfavourable terms of trade, the debt burden and an unstable macro-economic environment. For Zambia to realise economic growth it must remove its rural people from the poverty trap by enhancing rural development through infrastructure development and agricultural input schemes.

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FIGURE 4: THE RURAL POVERTY TRAP

Source: Andrew Dorward, Jonathan Kydd, Jamie Morrison and Colin Poulton

(2002), Institutions, markets and policies for pro-poor agricultural growth Challenges: The Zambian government must go out of its way to stimulate economic growth by tackling the following: ♦ Unsustainable use of natural resources. ♦ Weak institutional capacity to enforce environmental laws and to coordinate

trans-boundary natural resources management efforts. ♦ Low levels of preventive malaria drugs. ♦ Infrastructure and human resource constraints. ♦ Gender inequality. ♦ Limited access to health care services. ♦ High prevalence of malaria. ♦ Increased national prevalence of HIV. ♦ Reversing high female illiteracy. ♦ Reversing low levels of completion and equity in basic education. ♦ Low agricultural productivity. ♦ Achieving broad-based pro-poor economic growth. ♦ High post-harvest losses. ♦ High animal losses.

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3.9.2 Food Security Zambia's food security situation remains poor despite the occasional surpluses the country produces during good seasons. Among the major causes of food insecurity are: ♦ High poverty levels undermining productivity. ♦ Unfavourable agricultural practices. ♦ Inadequate market access. ♦ Drought and floods. ♦ Labour shortages due to HIV/AIDS epidemic.

3.9.3 HIV/AIDS The Zambian HIV prevalence rates among adults 15-49 years have been estimated at 16%, with infection rates being much higher among women (18%) than men (13%). The rates are also higher in urban areas (23%) than rural areas (11%).

FIGURE 5: HIV/AIDS AND FOOD SECURITY

Africa is a continent ravaged by HIV/AIDS pandemic, and southern Africa is at its epicentre. The first defence against HIV/AIDS is food. In southern Africa, famine exacerbates disease, and disease exacerbates famine through labour shortage in the fields. The standard of public health in Zambia has been weakened not only by HIV/AIDS but other diseases such as malaria and general poor nutrition.

3.9.4 Deforestation The forest sector is potentially very important to national development and human welfare. Woodfuel is the main cooking energy for over 90% of households in the country especially in urban areas. Woodfuel is used in the inefficient making of charcoal. In 1991 the charcoal industry accounted for 2,3% of GDP while the rest of the forest sector contributed 3%. Charcoal production from woodfuel provides

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full-time employment to about 41 000 people in rural areas while another 4 500 people are employed in charcoal transportation. The major causes of deforestation are charcoal making, clearing forests for agriculture, roads and construction wood. Deforestation in catchment areas increases run-off by 10-20% (Mumeka 1986). But, in the long run, deforestation often results in reduced precipitation.

3.9.5 Water Zambia has vast water resources and the problem of inadequate supply is related to obstruction, treatment and distribution, e.g. abstraction of ground water is less than 1% of the yearly recharge (Therman 1985). Growing demands for water for hydro electric power, agriculture development, increasing urban and industrial consumption have resulted in conflicts over water rights in the Kafue Basin.

3.9.6 Livelihoods Food security is a priority for poor people who often have limited access to productive assets such as land or irrigation water. For survival, poor people use a diversity of resources, e.g. crops, trees, livestock, fish and wildlife for purposes of subsistence. Activities that exploit natural resources, particularly agriculture, are vital for the livelihoods of poor people as a source of income, wages, food and to stimulate local economies. More than 60% of the population obtain their livelihoods from agriculture. Due to HIV/AIDS, the loss of economically active adults increases dependency ratios and the number of orphans. It also decreases the earning capacity and availability of farm labour.

3.9.7 Declining Use of Indigenous Knowledge and Technologies Over a long period of time the rural communities have acquired detailed knowledge, skills and strategies based on their interactions with the local environment. The knowledge permeates the social structure and it is the basis for local level decision-making in agriculture, food production, natural resources management and other activities in the rural communities.

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4. ANTICIPATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

4.1 Signed Agreements The Zambian government is a signatory to: ♦ The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ♦ The Convention to Combat Desertification ♦ The Convention on Biological Diversity ♦ Rio Declaration (Agenda 21) ♦ Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) ♦ Kyoto Protocol ♦ SADC Protocol on Shared Waters

The country has just reviewed the National Energy Policy and has already enacted the Water, Environment and Pollution Acts.

4.2 Potential Climate Change

FIGURE 6: POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE

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4.2.1 Temperature The scientific basis of climate change (IPCC-WGI 2001) concludes that globally averaged surface temperatures have increased by 0.6 +/- 0.2oC over the 20th century. Countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), including Zambia, are already depicting a rise in temperatures in their data. Records also reveal that temperatures have risen by 0,5oC over the past 100 years (Chenje 2000).

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FIGURE 7: CASUAL PATHWAYS OF PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

4.2.2 Predicted Rainfall The IPCC-WGII (1998-2001) concluded that southern Africa would get drier if

climate change occurs and that the region will find it difficult to cope with impact given the present level of preparedness. Simulations by Hulme et al (2001) indicated reductions in precipitation in southern Africa for the next 100 years (IPCC-WGII, 2000 ch 10). Southern Africa's precipitation is expected to decrease

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by 5-20% in all major river basins of the region except the Congo where precipitation is expected to increase by 10%.

4.2.3 Predicted Temperatures For the range of scenarios developed (IPCC-SRES, 2000) the global average surface air temperature is predicted to increase by 1,4 to 5,8oC by 2100. The southern African region is expected to register a temperature rise under climate change of 0,2oC to 0,5oC per decade with warming being greatest in the semi-arid margins of central southern Africa (Hulme et al 2001; IPCC-WGII 2001). Overall, countries in southern Africa are predicted to have a temperature rise of between 1oC and 4,7oC. In comparison, these increases are about three to four times higher than the observed temperature rise during the drought episodes of the 1980s and 1990s which was only 0,3oC.

4.2.4 Predicted Evapo-transpiration Evapo-transpiration under climate change is predicted to increase in the regional basins by between 4% and 25%. This increase will most likely aggravate evaporation rates from the numerous wetlands.

4.2.5 Predicted Run-Off and Hydrological Regimes Arnell (1999) shows that the greatest reduction in run-off by 2050 in Africa will be in the southern African region, thereby suggesting that water use to resource ratio changes will put countries in the high water/stress category. Combining the shortfall in rainfall and the effect of increases in potential evaporation, the resultant reduction in run-off in the major river basins of the region, including Zambia, will be up to 40%.

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4.2.6 Anticipated Impacts and Adaptation by Sector Sector Area Impacts/Vulnerability Adaptation Water South Province ♦ Reduced economic development

due to load shedding. ♦ High temperatures ♦ Reduced runoff ♦ Reduced precipitation ♦ Impact on tourism and wildlife ♦ High evapo-transpiration ♦ Reduced water supply for

recreation ♦ Reduced agricultural productivity ♦ Reduced power generation

♦ Building designs ♦ Water catchment area management ♦ Integrated river basin management ♦ Water conservation management ♦ Management plans

Agriculture South Province ♦ High temperatures ♦ Increased poverty levels ♦ Evapo-transpiration ♦ Reduced winter crops ♦ Inadequate water for irrigation ♦ Reduced agricultural productivity

♦ Early maturing crops - drought tolerant ♦ Promotion of drip irrigation ♦ Construction of storage/ dams ♦ Water conservation measures ♦ Crop diversification ♦ Use of greenhouses for horticulture

Livestock ♦ High temperatures, reduced rainfall ♦ Reduced livestock ♦ Reduced tourism

♦ Provision of feedstock for livestock

Wildlife ♦ High temperatures, reduced rainfall ♦ Reduced wildlife ♦ Reduced foreign currency earnings

♦ Culling

Forestry ♦ High temperatures, reduced rainfall ♦ Evapo-transpiration ♦ High soil erosion ♦ Reduced agricultural productivity

♦ Reduced use of woodfuel for charcoal making by promoting renewable energy resources

♦ Growing of indigenous trees

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Health ♦ High temperatures, reduced rainfall

♦ High humidity ♦ Increased vector-borne diseases

♦ Research and creation of malaria database

Table 2: Anticipated Impacts and Adaptation by Sector

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4.3 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on Natural and Physical System (Water and Land)

4.3.1 Land The precipitation in Zambia is uneven across the country and varies from year to year. Low soil moisture and high evapo-transpiration will promote desertification because of a reduction in vegetation cover. This will lead to soil erosion and sediment discharge that could cause siltation of reservoirs. The biggest problem is that even if the total amount of precipitation for the year is sufficient, the distribution is uneven and unpredictable. In 2001 the rains came late and stopped early in 2002 and the short but intense dry period in the Southern Province affected agricultural output. Reduced run-off and hence water resources will also have an impact on tourism, wildlife and water supply for recreation in the country. Drought events are known to have caused mortality in wildlife in the past (Walker et al 1987; Mkanda and Munthali 1991; Magadza 1994) besides a decline in tourism and reduction in water flows at the Victoria Falls.

4.3.2 Erosion Removal of vegetation cover through fires or overgrazing resulted in soil erosion in the wake of heavy rains leading to decreased agricultural productivity.

4.3.3 Water El Nino affects the precipitation in Zambia resulting in drought while La Nina is associated with floods (Benessene 2002). In the Kafue Basin there are already conflicts on water rights due to water demand for various uses including agriculture, hydro-power generation, industry and domestic demand, which will intensify with climate change.

4.4 Anticipated Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Floods and droughts will affect agricultural production, which can be worsened by the occurrence of pests. It is anticipated that there will be reduced precipitation; high temperatures and evapotranspiration during droughts, which will affect the staple food production. The plight of agriculture will also be compounded by HIV/AIDS due to unavailability of labour as the agricultural production among smallholder farmers is labour-intensive.

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FIGURE 8: MAIZE PRODUCTION IN SELECTED SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES VS EL NINO 3 DATA

Excessive rain in 2001 and dry spells during the 2001/02 growing season led to a major shortfall in maize production, a decrease of 42% compared with the average yearly production. (Hume et al (2001) predicts reduced precipitation in southern Africa in the next 100 years.

4.5 Impact of Climate Change on Economic Development The long lasting impacts of droughts on national economies for the SADC region, are explored in Benson and Clay, 1998. Economic impacts from curtailment of hydro-power generation from Lake Kariba on the Zambezi River as a result of the 1991-92 drought were estimated at US$102 million in GDP, US$36 million in lost export earnings and 3 000 job losses (Benson and Clay 1998). Because Zambia's economy is agriculture based, drought is likely to have an adverse effect on the agriculture sector, resulting in lower economic growth.

4.6 Impacts of Climate Change on Socio-Economic Situation (Livelihoods) Drought threatens the energy security of a country due to its capacity to disrupt energy supplies from hydro-power systems. This will, in turn, have a ripple effect on the social and economic development fabric of society. The basic infrastructure for development, namely roads, bridges, transport, houses and services will be damaged by the effects of floods, cyclones, etc., resulting in the poor having their only sources of livelihoods destroyed. Socio-economic impacts arising from climate change impacts on water and wetlands are likely to include shortages of potable water, food insecurity, poor health, extreme events and damage to infrastructure. Human health will be affected by the rise in temperature, which will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria. Access to potable water and

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sanitation is very low during droughts while floods increase the frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases.

4.7 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity Changes in climate will alter the distribution range of the antelope species. Montane Centre of Biodiversity is threatened by increases in temperature because many represent isolated populations with no possibility of vertical or horizontal migration. Biodiversity forms an important source for livelihood for countries whose economies are natural resource based. Uses are consumptive, i.e. food, fibre, fuel, shelter, medicinal and wildlife trade and non-consumptive, namely ecosystem services and the economically important tourism industry.

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4.8 Climate Related Adverse Effects, Sectors and Impacts in Zambia Climate Adverse Effect Area/Sector Impact Impact Floods Kafue Basin, Luena, Lukanga, Zambezi,

Bertose, Western and North-western Province and Central

♦ Damage to sewerage infrastructure and water contamination.

♦ Loss of life, crops and animals. ♦ Destruction of infrastructure: roads, bridges, schools

and hospitals - displaced people. ♦ Outbreak of pests and diseases. ♦ Destruction of fish and wildlife.

Drought Widespread drought in Zambia - 1946/47, 1965/66, 1972/73, 1982/83, 1986/87, 1991/92 and 1995/96

♦ Crop failure, water-scarcity, heat waves. ♦ Drying up of some dams, fishponds - loss of human

and animal life. ♦ Loss of biodiversity and environmental degradation. ♦ Inadequate water to deal with sanitation.

Cyclone Eline Central - 2000 ♦ Damage to infrastructure, rural community houses, school blocks and hospitals.

♦ Destruction of power lines. ♦ Destruction of crops, forests, plantations, loss of life

from collapsing structures. ♦ Bush fire enhancement in dry season.

Table 3: Climate Related Adverse Effects, Sectors and Impacts in Zambia

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5. PRESENT POLICIES AND ACTIVITIES ADDRESSING CLIMATE STIMULI INCLUDING EXTREME EVENTS

5.1 The Policy Content of Adaptation to Climate Change The ultimate objective of this UNFCCC Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to: achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow eco-systems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (Article 2 of UNFCCC). ♦ In their actions to achieve the objective of the Convention and to implement its

provision, the Parties shall be guided, inter alia, by the following: The specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, and of those Parties, especially developing country Parties, that would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden under the Convention, should be given full consideration (Article 3.2 UNFCCC).

All parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall: ♦ Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of

the Parties, in accordance with Article 12, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties (Article 4.1(a));

♦ Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (Article 4.1(b));

♦ Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods (Article 4.1 (e));

♦ Take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for example impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, or projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change (Article

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4.1 (f)); ♦ Promote and cooperate in education, training and public awareness related to

climate change and encourage the widest participation in this process, including that of non-governmental organisations (Article 4.1 (i)).

5.2 Development Policy

5.2.1 Poverty Reduction Strategy In November 1997, the Zambian government appointed the Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS) to: a) serve as a focal point for all poverty-related programmes in the country; b) coordinate all poverty-related interventions in the country; c) spearhead the preparation of a comprehensive, coherent National Poverty

Reduction Action Plan (NPRAP) .

The Zambian government, with support from UNDP, prepared the National Poverty Reduction Strategic Framework (NPRSF) which was endorsed by government in 1998. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the replacement of its Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) by the new Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). It became a requirement for every developing country to prepare a PRSP before it could access new concessional borrowing facilities, including debt relief. NPRAP did not provide a reference point and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) became the overall coordinator of the PRSP in place of MCDSS. Vision 2025 was launched to reduce poverty with the medium-term plans such as PRSP and Transitional National Development Plan (TNDP) and the five-year National Development Plans (FNDPs) being operational through annual budgets.

Sector Cost ($) Share of Total Budget (%) Roads 229 000 000 19,1 Health 200 150 000 16,7 Agriculture 173 000 000 14,4 Education 147 500 000 12,3 Energy 114 000 000 9,5 HIV/AIDS 94 600 000 7,9 Tourism 58 700 000 4,9 Water and Sanitation 42 400 000 3,5 Macro-economic Reforms/Institutions 38 200 000 3,2 Governance 27 000 000 2,3 Mining 26 600 000 2,2 Transport 22 000 000 1,8 Industry 12 500 000 1,0

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Social Safety Net 9 000 000 0,8 Environment 3 000 000 0,25 Monitoring and Evaluation/Statistics 1 500 000 0,12 Gender 976 000 0,1 TOTAL 1 200 126 000 100,0 Table 4: Sector Shares of the PRSP Budget - 2002-2004 Source: Zambia Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2002-2004 p.130

As can be seen from Table 4 above, roads, health, agriculture and education make up nearly two-thirds of the budget. If energy, HIV/AIDS and tourism are added, this becomes 85%. The general feeling by other stakeholders in Zambia is that the share of water and sanitation, social safety nets and cross-cutting issues is inadequate. In the PRSP water and sanitation are treated as components of infrastructure development, not as a social good similar to health and education, but as an economic good. The PRSP programmes will be implemented with donor support as 60% of Zambia's annual budget comes through donor funding. The PRSP document recognises the importance of strengthening government's capacity for poverty reduction programmes, for without it, very little will be achieved. All stakeholders, i.e. public and private sectors and civil society, were involved in the preparation of the PRSP document. Meanwhile, parliamentary committees have been working with civil society to hold government accountable. The civil society monitoring the implementation of PRSP was happy with the use and disbursements of HIPC funds, which have resulted in better social infrastructure. Food security has been attained in a number of study communities despite the disappointing rains. Cross-cutting issues were found to be playing a huge role in frustrating poverty reduction efforts. These are HIV/AIDS, which is negatively affecting all the sectors, especially agriculture, health and education in that it is robbing the sectors of qualified staff. It is also creating a heavy burden on the families, which cannot support the growing numbers of orphans.

5.3 Millennium Development Goals The Zambian government's programme to address poverty aims at reducing extreme poverty from the current level of 73% to 50% by 2005. The government and their development partners agree on the importance of agriculture as the engine for

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reducing poverty in Zambia because it is the main source of livelihood for the majority of the rural people. The PRSP and TNDP and other policy documents emphasise agricultural development. The Zambian government has put in place favourable policies and programmes aimed at improving the education sector by the removal of examination stationery fees and the declaration of free primary education in 2002. Government has also implemented institutional mechanisms for gender mainstreaming culminating in the adoption of the National Gender Policy in 2002.

5.4 Existing Activities Addressing Climate Stimuli/Early Warning and Disaster Preparedness In early warning systems, data is timely communicated to decision-makers and implementers so that disaster impacts are minimised. The approach has worked well in the past. For example, during 1994/95 agricultural season, although the rains were just as deficient as they were in 1991/92, the early warning from Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) minimised the food importation bill and allowed for the orderly and timely distribution of grain (Garanganga, Harare Office).

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FIGURE 9: STATUS AT A GLANCE

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6. INTEGRATING ADAPTATION POLICY INTO DEVELOPMENT POLICY

6.1 Adaptive Capacity

FIGURE 10: ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

6.2 Resource Management There should be an uptake of new technologies in order to undertake improved crop, grasslands, livestock, wildlife and natural resources management including efficient use of energy and water resources. The government and civil society should embark on capacity building to help communities manage their natural resources, including water catchment areas.

Indicators Determinants Components Index

Female activity rate

Income inequality

Literacy rate

World trade share

Enrolment rate

No. of phone lines

R & D expenditure

No. of patents

Number of doctors

Equality

Knowledge

Technology

Infrastructure

Flexibility

GDP per capita

Age dependency ratio

Economic Power

Awareness

Ability

Action

Adaptive Capacity

Budget Surplus

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Adaptation to be mainstreamed in all development programmes in order to reduce vulnerability of the poor communities. Good governance should be enhanced with capacity building for the police force to fight crime and corruption. Communities should be encouraged to look after their natural resources for their benefit and be made aware of the dangers of over-exploitation and misuse of natural resources.

6.3 Economic Development The agricultural input programme should be enhanced as it has a multiplier effect. It is crucial to diversify agricultural crops and infrastructure development in rural areas and tourist areas where communities are encouraged to expand their sources of livelihoods. As Zambia is endowed with a wealth of natural resources emphasis should be placed on technological advancement and human and financial resources for the exploitation of natural resources with value addition. This will help stimulate economic development. Figure 10 below provides a model, which if followed to the letter, can result in the rapid development of the country while at the same time creating jobs.

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FIGURE 11: KICK-STARTING THE RURAL ECONOMY

6.4 Social Development The Zambian government should identify their priority sectors and technologies necessary for economic development. For improved climate prediction models, drought-resistant phenotypes and infrastructure a country like Zambia needs "hard" technologies, e.g. computer hardware, as well as "soft" technologies, such as information, networks, training and research for adaptation to local conditions.

6.5 Education and Information Dissemination From the Adaptive Capacity diagram it shows that for a country to have that capacity to absorb and utilise advanced technologies it needs a literate society. In this respect, adult literacy classes targeting women should be promoted. The civil protection or the early warning unit should package information in a palatable manner. Information portals should be used to bridge the digital divide. Suitable communication strategies should be developed for all classes of society.

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7. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1 Conclusion In conclusion, the Zambian government is on the right path of development as it has mobilised all stakeholders to participate in the economic development of the country through the implementation of the PRSP, which is agricultural based, to stimulate a ripple effect All that remains is to make sure that agriculture is weather proof, i.e. not affected by drought. Water storage and irrigation infrastructure should be promoted to yield the desired results.

7.2 Recommendation

7.2.1 Planning Early warning and emergency planning should be strengthened while the vulnerability of communities can be reduced through: ♦ Strengthening and diversification of community livelihoods. ♦ Extensive and diverse sustainable utilisation of the natural resource base and

efficient utilisation of river basis for crop production. ♦ Encouraging local seed exchanges between farmers from different

communities. ♦ Promoting local agrarian extension officers to help local communities improve

agricultural production.

7.2.2 Integrating Disaster Management in Sectorial Policies Although Zambia boasts a Disaster Management Policy, it is weakly enforced. For the best results, the following should be carried out: ♦ Increase sectorial engagement between government departments on disaster

risk management. ♦ Integrate disaster risk reduction principles into government programmes.

7.2.3 Promoting Multi-Disciplinary Research into Vulnerability Reduction ♦ Research into better building standards. ♦ Research diversification into drought-resistant crops. ♦ Research into pest-resistant crops. ♦ Research into water conservation and water catchment management

techniques. ♦ Research into new management techniques to reduce environmental

degradation.